Apple Pay may account for half of mobile wallet users by 2020
In two years from now as many as 225 million people may be using Apple Pay on mobile devices, according to research estimates published on Monday.
By 2020, the "OEM pay" market -- meaning platforms like Apple Pay, Google Pay, and Samsung Pay -- should hit 450 million users, Juniper Research said. The firm specifically noted it's expecting half of these people to be using Apple Pay, despite the broader global popularity of Android phones.
"We believe that growth over the next five years will continue to be dominated by offerings from the major OEM players," wrote Juniper's Nitin Bhas. "Additionally, we now have the likes of Huawei Pay and Fitbit Pay launching in several markets; this is now included in Juniper's contactless forecasts."
Fitbit Pay rolled out with the Ionic smartwatch last year, and has so far been limited to that and the Versa. Google Pay is supported by many more devices, even with the fragmentation of Android.
Apple Pay has been supported on iPhones and iPads since 2014, the Apple Watch since 2015, and Macs since the introduction of Apple Pay on the Web. Touch Bar-equipped MacBook Pros can use Apple Pay without a companion device.
Looking again at its 2020 target, Juniper suggests that OEM pay systems will top $300 billion in transactions, accounting for 15 percent of all contactless in-store payments.
Apple Pay is continuing to evolve, for instance through the introduction of PayPal-like Apple Pay Cash transfers and the switch from Touch ID to Face ID on the iPhone X. More devices are likely to adopt Face ID, such as upcoming iPhones and iPads.
By 2020, the "OEM pay" market -- meaning platforms like Apple Pay, Google Pay, and Samsung Pay -- should hit 450 million users, Juniper Research said. The firm specifically noted it's expecting half of these people to be using Apple Pay, despite the broader global popularity of Android phones.
"We believe that growth over the next five years will continue to be dominated by offerings from the major OEM players," wrote Juniper's Nitin Bhas. "Additionally, we now have the likes of Huawei Pay and Fitbit Pay launching in several markets; this is now included in Juniper's contactless forecasts."
Fitbit Pay rolled out with the Ionic smartwatch last year, and has so far been limited to that and the Versa. Google Pay is supported by many more devices, even with the fragmentation of Android.
Apple Pay has been supported on iPhones and iPads since 2014, the Apple Watch since 2015, and Macs since the introduction of Apple Pay on the Web. Touch Bar-equipped MacBook Pros can use Apple Pay without a companion device.
Looking again at its 2020 target, Juniper suggests that OEM pay systems will top $300 billion in transactions, accounting for 15 percent of all contactless in-store payments.
Apple Pay is continuing to evolve, for instance through the introduction of PayPal-like Apple Pay Cash transfers and the switch from Touch ID to Face ID on the iPhone X. More devices are likely to adopt Face ID, such as upcoming iPhones and iPads.
Comments
Apple Pay may account for half of mobile wallet users by 2020
Not if Apple doesn't get actually aggressive about getting vendors to accept and advertise they accept Apple Pay. Apple talks about all the banks being added to the Apple Pay fan club. But until more Apple customers know that more vendors are accepting it, it's practically languishing.
C'mon c'mon, Apple! AP commercials! My local MacDonald's has been accepting AP since early days, and their staff is often surprised that it's used even though they see a lot of iPhones.
When chatting up people with an iPhone, I find a lot of them don't really know what AP is and a few who have still never heard of it.
C'mon c'mon!
I don't think Apple has a choice.
The number one reason to use Apple Pay is security. Tapping your card (or phone or watch) are all easy to do. Apple should be doing more to promote the security aspect of Apple Pay (instead of the convenience aspect). I think the reason they don't is because of agreements they have with card issuers.
It wouldn't look good for Apple to heavily promote that tapping your phone is MORE secure than your card, as it would also imply tapping cards is LESS secure. Indirectly Apple would be showing tap & pay cards in a negative light - not good when banks are trying to get consumers to use tap & pay.
This is the only reason I can think of why Apple hasn't been aggressive in promoting the security of Apple Pay.
You have a narrow view of the world. In the US it's slow, but around the world tap & pay is very common. Over 95% of my transactions are done via my Apple Watch. The only time I can't use Apple Pay are the rare occasions a retailer doesn't accept it or when I purchase something more expensive (over the limit).
There might be a case of Apple biting the financial arm of Apple Pay, maybe. But they can always back channel AP security awareness.
Using Apple Pay is one of the few areas where security and convenience intersect with no significant compromise. Typically, you must sacrifice more convenience as security increases.
Regardless, at this pace I think the 2020 estimate is overly optimistic.
This was never going to be an overnight conversation, but it's being adopted faster than I expected. Now, Apple Pay Cash—which they also advertise—will make Apple Pay an even easier step for many as they see APC as a clear benefit in ease, security, and lack of potential hidden fees that PayPal and others may offer.
It's certainly not languishing, but if you really want more customers to know that vendors are accepting it there is something you can do about it. You can order a booklet of assorted decals from Apple (which they've offered for free since AP was launched):
You might say, "that's not my responsibility," but are serious about wanting customers to know that Apple Pay is an option at places that you frequent? I know I do. I hand them out and explain them, as needed, not because I give two shits about helping Apple, but because I want *Pay (Apple Pay, Android Pay, Samsung Pay) to become so commonplace that carrying a physical credit or debit card is no longer the norm, and society has less card-related theft as a result.
Pro Tip: The packet has many stickers for the register (one-sided) and glass windows (two-sided), each in various sizes. Instead of just giving over some stickers, get the manager/owner involved by asking which size stickers do you want. In my experience they're much more likely to have them placed the next time you go in and not have misplaced them.
Your McDonald's likely was accepting Apple Pay from day one since they already had terminals for NFC-based payments in most stores. If you eat there you should check out their mobile app. It's a great way to save time during the lunch rush and there's probably a deal that will save you $1–3 on your order.
I hope we see LGPay, HTCPay, HuaweiPay etc. just for droid fragmentation purposes.
We will probably see similar setups with Swatch Group, Fitbit, and other devices that are kept on your person and can easily provide NFC.
“The safer way to pay.
When you make a purchase, Apple Pay uses a device-specific number and unique transaction code. So your card number is never stored on your device or on Apple servers, and when you pay, your card numbers are never shared by Apple with merchants.”
https://www.apple.com/uk/apple-pay/
In view of the latest revelations of the Dixon Carphone Warehouse data breach, I’m loathe to leave my card and other financial details with any retailer.
I’m fortunate enough to live an area with a choice of competitors, so I tend to go to Sainsbury’s and Waitrose who’ve fully adopted Apple Pay; it does contribute to making the shopping experience easier and more pleasant.
It’s short-sighted of Tesco not to adopt Apple Pay: they’re effectively making shopping more difficult for those who are actually willing to spend more.
It's clear by those questions you've chosen to read into what I posted, and not what I've posted, for reasons known only to you. There was absolutely no implication of any of that on my part.
It's irrelevant to me that Apple 'leads the pack'. I use Apple Pay whenever and wherever I can. Unfortunately, progress has been very slow as far as I'm concerned. Apple should be doing more to advertise this feature.
I say that AP is languishing or very close to it, given the paucity of places accepting it. I never expected this to be an overnight transition, but it's going slower than I expected. And I hold Apple responsible for that.
I do want more customers to know about it, and I do something about by chatting them up. NO, I'm NOT going to order decals, nor will I wear a sandwich board. The fact that someone might think I'm shirking my responsibility still doesn't relieve Apple of their responsibility to do a better job.
To be more accurate, I damn well say it's not my job. It IS the job of management to inform their customers. Some do so, many do not. Some of the readers I've seen make no indication they accept NFC payment. Management can fix that by improving customer awareness for every customer they serve. I have other things to do.
Uh, no. The three stores near me may have had the capability since day one, but they certainly were not accepting it then. I only know because I was there. Day One, early days... That's not relevant. The relevant point was their employees seldom seemed to know, and often new employees still don't. Why is that you ask? Because their management doesn't see Apple Pay as a priority in their training.
PRO TIP: When an employee has to be told how to conduct an Apple Pay transaction by the customer, the customer can them contact McDonald's via the address on the receipt and advise Customer Service of the situation. In return you get a free Quarter Pounder. You may surmise how I know this.
I AM serious that Apple improves Apple Pay awareness and acceptance. Every time I shop, I ask a clerk or manager if they are handy, if they do or will be accepting Apple Pay. Then I notify Apple Feedback of the interaction and my desire to see more vendors accepting it.
That it's not as much as I could do is not my concern. That my 'seriousness' is not the same as yours is not my concern. That this is not what Guy Kawasaki might do is not my concern.
My concern is that Apple should be doing more, and I see no sign that they are. I don't see it as a given that Apple Cash will significantly increase the number of vendors using Apple Pay.
Some POS terminals already contain the needed NFC kit for contactless payment. I would like to see them accept Apple Pay.
Maybe if fifty people a day, I said fifty people a day walked in, handing out decals, chatting up customers, and walked out without buying anything, they might think it's a movement. Yeah! Don't worry Apple, I got this.
Me, I will look for the NFC symbol to be printed on the card swipe PIN pad or to appear on the display once they enter the total. Because so many switched to new devices that accept chipped cards over the last couple years and because NFC predates the chip card requirement in the US by several years I find that most of the places I shop (and nearly all mom-and-pop shops) accept Apple Pay.
Personally, I prefer to be proactive about my own security. But, hey, you have every right to keep saying "it's not my job" to have more convenience and more security In your life despite how blatantly incorrect that statement is.