Apple released the HomePod with its software half baked.
The numbers wer me impressive considering.
The best thing about the HomePod is it will force Apple to get serious about Siri...
Problem is when people have a not so great first experience it makes others more likely to wait (if they buy at all). I mean think of how many people don’t use Siri or Apple Maps because of bad experiences they’ve had. So even if the product improves these customers don’t know because they’ve stopped using the service.
This is a very good point aka once bitten, twice shy.
Apple doesn't care about market share. If they could make higher profits by doing it, Apple would be happy to sell just to the 1%. Apple is like Tiffany or Ferrari.
Good point but to think Apple wouldn't want 70% of the market with these profits is insane.
The good point is just a view pulled out of the vacuum ... unless @Nunzy is, in fact, sitting on the Apple board.
I have to point out that analysts are working almost completely in the dark here. You’ll notice not a single one of these various guesstimates (this is the third company that’s weighed in on this) tell you how many smart speakers have been sold in total — but funnily they all agree that Apple has six percent. This means that, depending on what they think the total market is, Apple has either sold a) 700,000-ish HomePods, b) 1.5 million-ish HomePods, or c) 3 million-ish HomePods.
My own guess is that Apple would have said something if the HomePod had quickly risen to a $1B business, so it probably didn’t in the initial rush — but I’d guess it’s around a half-billion business by now (so that’s over a million, less than two million units). Amazon and Google don’t report how many they’ve sold either, so the entire thing is just WAG really (which makes my guess as valid as theirs).
What I wish they’d do is separate out the “premium” smart speakers from the cheap Amazon crap. Google and/or Sonos is likely still outselling Apple in the >$200 tier, but Apple percentage of that market would be much more representative of the market Apple is actually aiming for, and give a clearer picture of how they’re doing.
I don't know where to put the HomePod in the lineup of smart assistant vs.sound quality vs. price. To me it seems like you get really good sound for the money, but it's still not a real sound system (laws of physics for sound are still here), and you get a sucky digital assistant in Siri that's inferior to Alexa. I think it will continue to be a niche toy while these things are not clear in people's minds. Does the sound quality and customization blow your mind, to merit over 3x the price of an Echo, or to compromise over a real sound system with large speakers/subwoofer/receiver?
In italy google home is for free if you buy a television in some supermarket. So google can increase the share of that poor product and so make it more appetible at the eyes of who is not informed.
Can we drop the "Smart" crap already. The HomePod is the only speaker with any kind of intelligence - that is to say it can automatically determine the acoustics of a space and its position within it, and adjust itself accordingly. That to me is a SMART speaker.
The other devices might as well be called smart microphones. They are basically just voice-controlled home assistants - the speaker is basically only for feedback.
There is intelligence in the listening, i.e. hearing what you say then deciphering it. And there is intelligence in the response, i.e. correctly responding to the question/request. I'm sure you could come up with some much more wordy description for these devices but I'm not sure why you'd bother. We all know that each device has different strengths - quality of the speaker, of the assistant, of the microphone, the price, the size, the mobility, but they are all in the same broader category - an audio input/output device with an assistant.
I'm more tired of HomePod being compared to the crappy spy devices when it's clearly a kick-ass bluetooth speaker not much different from the ones people blast at home(Beats Pill, JBL etc).
I don't know where to put the HomePod in the lineup of smart assistant vs.sound quality vs. price. To me it seems like you get really good sound for the money, but it's still not a real sound system (laws of physics for sound are still here), and you get a sucky digital assistant in Siri that's inferior to Alexa. I think it will continue to be a niche toy while these things are not clear in people's minds. Does the sound quality and customization blow your mind, to merit over 3x the price of an Echo, or to compromise over a real sound system with large speakers/subwoofer/receiver?
If you think about a decent 'dumb' sound system that can cost more than thousands, I think HomePod is already worthy for quality vs price. As for smart assistant, it varies on user's expectation. I am happy with my daily news, clock, play 'xyz' songs and weather. The rest can wait for software update.
Apple doesn't care about market share. If they could make higher profits by doing it, Apple would be happy to sell just to the 1%. Apple is like Tiffany or Ferrari.
Good point but to think Apple wouldn't want 70% of the market with these profits is insane.
Apple cares only about maximizing total profits. their current niche is a wealthy older demographic.
Considering only revenue and estimates of prices: - Vast majority of Echo devices sold are Dots, often discounted to $20-30. If you consider a mix of the others and some not on sale, you might get to an ASP of $50-$60 - Apple's list is $350, and outside of a few employee discounts, it is likely sold at the list price. Perhaps an ASP of $330.
Using these figures (guesstimates as they are): - Amazon Echo sales = $240M - Apple HomePod sales = $230M
Even if you use a slightly higher Echo and lower HomePod ASP, the point is still the same. Apple is likely to be the revenue leader in a year. Remember the number of countries where HomePod is available is still quite limited. Give some time feature improvements, better knowledge of product, and I expect sales to grow (though likely still relatively modest).
One market that Apple could pursue with smart sound would be the TV sound bar. Majority of households still don't have anything, relying on crappy TV internal speakers. An Apple solution (doesn't have to be a bar per say - it could be a pair of mini HomePods in stereo) that is well integrated with AppleTV along with Apple Music would do quite well. I think it would add considerable value to the AppleTV.
It's not how much money Apple makes that matters. It's always about market share percentage and that's where Apple is always considered a failure. Wall Street would rather Amazon sell X? millions of Echo dots for $50 apiece than Apple selling 700,000 units for $350 apiece because market share is everything to investors. The news media enjoys making Apple look like a failing company although in reality it's quite the opposite.
On the other hand, Apple is in the Business of making money through their Hardware/products. Amazon just need a gateway from your purse to their services; where they make their real money. They can't compete with Apple on quality. It's a win for both: Apple with more revenue, AMZN with bigger reach and data.
Comments
The good point is just a view pulled out of the vacuum ... unless @Nunzy is, in fact, sitting on the Apple board.
My own guess is that Apple would have said something if the HomePod had quickly risen to a $1B business, so it probably didn’t in the initial rush — but I’d guess it’s around a half-billion business by now (so that’s over a million, less than two million units). Amazon and Google don’t report how many they’ve sold either, so the entire thing is just WAG really (which makes my guess as valid as theirs).
What I wish they’d do is separate out the “premium” smart speakers from the cheap Amazon crap. Google and/or Sonos is likely still outselling Apple in the >$200 tier, but Apple percentage of that market would be much more representative of the market Apple is actually aiming for, and give a clearer picture of how they’re doing.
- Vast majority of Echo devices sold are Dots, often discounted to $20-30. If you consider a mix of the others and some not on sale, you might get to an ASP of $50-$60
- Apple's list is $350, and outside of a few employee discounts, it is likely sold at the list price. Perhaps an ASP of $330.
Using these figures (guesstimates as they are):
- Amazon Echo sales = $240M
- Apple HomePod sales = $230M
Even if you use a slightly higher Echo and lower HomePod ASP, the point is still the same. Apple is likely to be the revenue leader in a year. Remember the number of countries where HomePod is available is still quite limited. Give some time feature improvements, better knowledge of product, and I expect sales to grow (though likely still relatively modest).
One market that Apple could pursue with smart sound would be the TV sound bar. Majority of households still don't have anything, relying on crappy TV internal speakers. An Apple solution (doesn't have to be a bar per say - it could be a pair of mini HomePods in stereo) that is well integrated with AppleTV along with Apple Music would do quite well. I think it would add considerable value to the AppleTV.
On the other hand, Apple is in the Business of making money through their Hardware/products. Amazon just need a gateway from your purse to their services; where they make their real money. They can't compete with Apple on quality. It's a win for both: Apple with more revenue, AMZN with bigger reach and data.