Kuo: 'Apple Car' likely to launch in 2023 to 2025, fuel $2 trillion company valuation
Noted Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo believes the Cupertino tech giant's autonomous vehicle aspirations -- "Project Titan" -- will be realized in a shipping consumer product as early as 2023, helping push the company toward its next trillion dollar valuation.
In a note to investors seen by AppleInsider, Kuo discusses how Apple is likely to reach its next trillion dollar market capitalization. The company became the first publicly traded U.S. company to reach a market cap of $1 trillion earlier this month on the heels of a record June quarter.
According to Kuo, Apple's quickly growing services arm, AR futures and its secretive Apple Car project are poised to propel the company toward a $2 trillion valuation.
Kuo has little insight into a rumored "Apple Car" aside from a predicted launch date between 2023 and 2025. How the analyst arrived at those numbers is unknown, but he expects Apple to take advantage of what he views as a tectonic shift in the automotive market.
In particular, the iPhone maker can leverage "potentially huge" replacement demands that are emerging in the sector due to the introduction of new technologies. Specific features are left unmentioned, but Kuo believes the current car market is ripe for change, much like the same smartphone sector was before iPhone.
"Apple's leading technology advantages (e.g. AR) would redefine cars and differentiate Apple Car from peers' products," Kuo writes. "Apple's service will grow significantly by entering the huge car finance market via Apple Car, and [...] Apple can do a better integration of hardware, software, and service than current competitors in the consumer electronics sector and potential competitors in the auto sector."
Apple's work on a fully autonomous vehicle is somewhat of an open secret in the tech world. Rumblings of an "Apple Car" began to proliferate in 2014, with reports at the time saying the tech giant planned to build an in-house designed vehicle from the ground up. Subsequent rumors claimed Apple went so far as to begin preliminary discussions to build an automotive plant in the U.S. before realizing the undertaking was more onerous than initially thought.
As part of what would become a constantly evolving project, Apple reportedly sought manufacturing partnerships with established carmakers like BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Nissan, McLaren, Magna Steyr and China's BYD Auto, but negotiations failed due to contractual disagreements. Among the quibbles was debate over who would "own the experience" and control driver data gleaned from onboard computer systems.
Apple's car effort was said to have grown like a well-funded weed, consuming resources from other departments within the company. At one point, the project counted well over 1,000 employees among its ranks, with specialists in automotive hardware to navigation software focusing on a complete rethinking of the automobile.
AppleInsider sources said the ambitious initiative began to unravel as disputes between team leaders like former project lead Steve Zadesky and top executives took root. Zadesky left Apple in 2016 and the project was handed over to longtime executive Bob Mansfield. Under Mansfield, the Titan team was stripped down to necessary personnel as the project refocused on software and supporting solutions.
Apple is now thought to be working on an autonomous employee shuttle pieced together from the remnants of Titan. Last week, however, former engineering executive Doug Field returned to Cupertino after a nearly five-year stint at Tesla, reviving hopes that an Apple Car might still be in the cards.
Beyond Apple Car, Apple is predicted to rely heavily on its services business to build out significant revenue streams. Because of their inherent portability, Apple services like Apple Music, iCloud and, to a lesser extent, the App Store and AppleCare, are able to thrive on a variety of hardware platforms.
In its most recent fiscal quarter, Apple recorded record services business revenues of $9.5 billion, shattering its previous record of $9.19 billion turned in during the last sequential quarter.
The category will in part be bolstered by redefining existing products with new user interface technologies like augmented reality and the aforementioned automotive project, Kuo says.
Finally, Apple's thrust into AR is expected to bear fruit in the near term. Specifically, Kuo points to the 2020 release of a so-called "Apple Glasses" AR goggle solution.
"Apple has always grown significantly after redefining existing and new products by innovating its UIs (e.g. Mac's mouse, iPod's click wheel and iPhone's multi-touch) in the past. We expect Apple will redefine the UIs of existing products by offering an AR experience created by the AR glass, which will likely be launched in 2020."
Apple is widely rumored to be developing a head-mounted AR device with high-resolution displays and advanced wireless data transmission technology for communicating with a separate processing box. Prior to Kuo, analyst Gene Munster pegged the wearable to launch in 2021.
In a note to investors seen by AppleInsider, Kuo discusses how Apple is likely to reach its next trillion dollar market capitalization. The company became the first publicly traded U.S. company to reach a market cap of $1 trillion earlier this month on the heels of a record June quarter.
According to Kuo, Apple's quickly growing services arm, AR futures and its secretive Apple Car project are poised to propel the company toward a $2 trillion valuation.
Kuo has little insight into a rumored "Apple Car" aside from a predicted launch date between 2023 and 2025. How the analyst arrived at those numbers is unknown, but he expects Apple to take advantage of what he views as a tectonic shift in the automotive market.
In particular, the iPhone maker can leverage "potentially huge" replacement demands that are emerging in the sector due to the introduction of new technologies. Specific features are left unmentioned, but Kuo believes the current car market is ripe for change, much like the same smartphone sector was before iPhone.
"Apple's leading technology advantages (e.g. AR) would redefine cars and differentiate Apple Car from peers' products," Kuo writes. "Apple's service will grow significantly by entering the huge car finance market via Apple Car, and [...] Apple can do a better integration of hardware, software, and service than current competitors in the consumer electronics sector and potential competitors in the auto sector."
Apple's work on a fully autonomous vehicle is somewhat of an open secret in the tech world. Rumblings of an "Apple Car" began to proliferate in 2014, with reports at the time saying the tech giant planned to build an in-house designed vehicle from the ground up. Subsequent rumors claimed Apple went so far as to begin preliminary discussions to build an automotive plant in the U.S. before realizing the undertaking was more onerous than initially thought.
As part of what would become a constantly evolving project, Apple reportedly sought manufacturing partnerships with established carmakers like BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Nissan, McLaren, Magna Steyr and China's BYD Auto, but negotiations failed due to contractual disagreements. Among the quibbles was debate over who would "own the experience" and control driver data gleaned from onboard computer systems.
Apple's car effort was said to have grown like a well-funded weed, consuming resources from other departments within the company. At one point, the project counted well over 1,000 employees among its ranks, with specialists in automotive hardware to navigation software focusing on a complete rethinking of the automobile.
AppleInsider sources said the ambitious initiative began to unravel as disputes between team leaders like former project lead Steve Zadesky and top executives took root. Zadesky left Apple in 2016 and the project was handed over to longtime executive Bob Mansfield. Under Mansfield, the Titan team was stripped down to necessary personnel as the project refocused on software and supporting solutions.
Apple is now thought to be working on an autonomous employee shuttle pieced together from the remnants of Titan. Last week, however, former engineering executive Doug Field returned to Cupertino after a nearly five-year stint at Tesla, reviving hopes that an Apple Car might still be in the cards.
Beyond Apple Car, Apple is predicted to rely heavily on its services business to build out significant revenue streams. Because of their inherent portability, Apple services like Apple Music, iCloud and, to a lesser extent, the App Store and AppleCare, are able to thrive on a variety of hardware platforms.
In its most recent fiscal quarter, Apple recorded record services business revenues of $9.5 billion, shattering its previous record of $9.19 billion turned in during the last sequential quarter.
The category will in part be bolstered by redefining existing products with new user interface technologies like augmented reality and the aforementioned automotive project, Kuo says.
Finally, Apple's thrust into AR is expected to bear fruit in the near term. Specifically, Kuo points to the 2020 release of a so-called "Apple Glasses" AR goggle solution.
"Apple has always grown significantly after redefining existing and new products by innovating its UIs (e.g. Mac's mouse, iPod's click wheel and iPhone's multi-touch) in the past. We expect Apple will redefine the UIs of existing products by offering an AR experience created by the AR glass, which will likely be launched in 2020."
Apple is widely rumored to be developing a head-mounted AR device with high-resolution displays and advanced wireless data transmission technology for communicating with a separate processing box. Prior to Kuo, analyst Gene Munster pegged the wearable to launch in 2021.
Comments
This guy is better off trying to figure out what this falls iPhone will be.
Seriously. Is there anyone out there that thinks an Apple Designed car would look like that?
With regard to AR glasses, I’m still having a little trouble understanding how the everyday consumer would find them useful. I was on vacation in an unfamiliar city and loved being able to have walking directions fed to me by my Apple Watch. I was discreet and didn’t scream “TOURIST” like checking my iPhone would have. Having similar functionality in glasses would be even better. But, for me, that doesn’t happen particularly often. I get it that AR glasses could potentially be very useful in different working environments, and maybe that’s what they’ll be mostly aimed at (if they come to fruition) but, again, on the consumer side I’m a little lost.
However, I also didn’t understand the use case for a tablet either. But now our house has 5 iPads. So, maybe once I see it it will all make sense.
Apple should do well selling cars considering that CarPlay in current cars doesn't have access to the full set of car data like tire pressure, gas usage, window controls, etc. If Apple ever builds a car it will definitely have access to all the car's data. When Apple sells its own cars (with "CarPlay+") some other car manufacturers could refuse to install CarPlay on their own cars, at which time consumers will be forced to purchase a car from Apple if they like the Apple Ecosystem. It will be like the current Mac/PC situation, where consumers must choose between Apple hardware & software or Microsoft+Vendors hardware/software, except that now Microsoft Windows is replaced with Google Android Auto. In the mid 90s Apple allowed hardware manufacturers to install Mac OS on their own hardware, but people don't remember that, and 20 years from now people may not remember the day when car companies installed CarPlay on their cars.
Kuo and the Apple Car have become the new Munster and the Apple Television Set.
And I don't think that design's very Apple. Should probably be a big, glass cylinder on wheels. Or a cube.
5G will start to deploy any time now. Significant VR and autonomous car testing has been done and some patents have been filed.
The whole integrated package including electrification, autonomous driving of newly architected vehicles and ride sharing needs to be tested extensively.
I have a feeling that some of Apple Physical Car's hardware work is being done at zoox. ( zoox.com )
About a year ago, 17 Apple car engineers joined zoox together as a group and I think Apple may have arranged that move. Not sure who is funding them.
Zoox is extremely secretive and they appear to use autonomous technology that is patented by Apple like map-less autonomous driving.
Check out their "crab like" 4 wheel steering capable test cars.
But I really pray ,Apple chooses a Uber like usage model ,since buying a car is not what most folks can do.
buying a car only takes one to have gainful employment and a responsible sense.
Its not rocket science.