BBK was ahead of Apple in Q3 '16, Q2 '17, Q3'17, and also in the last quarter. Did anyone care? Changed that anything?
If the media, or financial analysts, want to score by quarter, I'm okay with that. At the same time, Company financials are quarterly and yearly, so Apple will always look better in a yearly assessment of sales. It doesn't make any difference except in bragging rights at a particular time.
I'm not yet convinced that either Huawei, Xiaomi, or BKK, are in a position to take Apple's second place position based on yearly unit sales, and I have my doubts that they will challenge Samsung for first place anytime soon. Maybe in 2019. we'll see Apple displaced.
A very balanced comment. We'll have to wait and see. Nothing is guaranteed and there lies the beauty of the situation: competition
This is actually the second time Huawei has pulled ahead of Apple. It happened last year too. The difference this time is that the position of Huawei is stronger and its flagships are performing even better than last year. To the point that Huawei announced in July that it hoped to top 200 million units this year. That has resulted in Huawei being described as the tech wolf stalking both Apple and Samsung.
All that without equal access to the world's second largest premium handset market. The US, where it could do serious damage to Apple, juat as it is doing in every Apple market where it has equal access. In fact, and due to the protectionist nature of the restictions in the US, Huawei has lodged a formal request that the FTC make an official statement on the issue. We will see what the next moves are.
One thing is for sure. Given Apple's guidance for this quarter, if it is largely phone related, Apple will not be giving us more of the same this year. That will be solely due to market realities resulting from the extreme competition over the last two years.
Evidence of this statement please:
"All that without equal access to the world's second largest premium handset market. The US, where it could do serious damage to Apple, juat as it is doing in every Apple market where it has equal access. In fact, and due to the protectionist nature of the restictions in the US, Huawei has lodged a formal request that the FTC make an official statement on the issue. We will see what the next moves are."
I have yet to see Huawei do any damage to Apple in any market, and you haven't supplied any data to that effect. If anything, your previous link, noted that it was Samsung that was being affected, not Apple.
"Apple shipped 2.1 million units, while Samsung shipped 1.6 million units and Huawei 625,000 handsets.
A closer look at the numbers tells a different story, with Apple and Samsung’s YoY performance down 13 per cent and 34 per cent respectively.
Huawei, on the other hand, has registered growth of 63 per cent in the UK, which is showing that it has the potential to take on one of the most brand led markets in the world.
So with the recent surge of Huawei, which of the two is more likely to be impacted by the Chinese brand?
According to the analysts, the signs are more worrying for Samsung and the fact both share an Android platform contributes to this.
Koytcheva argues Apple performed well in the last quarter and that the pressure is on Samsung and other Android players.
Koytcheva said: “It is fair to say this is way less about Apple than it is about Samsung because Apple’s performance showed a slight uptake in a tough market.
“Huawei’s growth has come at the expense of Samsung and other competitors like LG and Sony. The pressure is more on these competitors because it is easier to persuade an Android user to switch from one brand to another than an iOS user to Android.”
Jeronimo also acknowledges the Android battle and that Huawei’s rise is “more worrying” for Samsung than it is Apple and that retailers can have a big influence in this."
The link provides insight from a number of industry watchers and their opinions vary even though the picture they paint is relatively consistent.
It is clear that Apple simply isn't seeing unit growth and in some of its strongest markets (UK etc) contraction may be the right word. Not good. Bad, in fact.
That lack of growth is partly Apple's own doing and partly competition. The presence of Huawei is having a negative impact on Samsung but isn't limited to Samsung. Samsung is just probably taking more damage than Apple. Apple is suffering too (as per the numbers in the link).
If Huawei were to achieve similar performance in the US (there is zero reason to believe otherwise, just look at the UK ad a model) the damage would be significant. Presently, the US premium cake gets cut into two. Cutting it into three would obviously hurt Samsung but Apple would feel a lot of pain too.
is a call to attention. Huawei wants an official declaration. From there I don't know where they want to go but they lodged the request for a reason, not a play to the gallery. In short, Apple is not being subjected to competitive stress in the US in the same way it is elsewhere. This also applies to Samsung in the US of course.
Good luck, but the Department of Defense and the various National Security Agencies have already acted, and they have authority superior to the FTC.
BBK was ahead of Apple in Q3 '16, Q2 '17, Q3'17, and also in the last quarter. Did anyone care? Changed that anything?
If the media, or financial analysts, want to score by quarter, I'm okay with that. At the same time, Company financials are quarterly and yearly, so Apple will always look better in a yearly assessment of sales. It doesn't make any difference except in bragging rights at a particular time.
I'm not yet convinced that either Huawei, Xiaomi, or BKK, are in a position to take Apple's second place position based on yearly unit sales, and I have my doubts that they will challenge Samsung for first place anytime soon. Maybe in 2019. we'll see Apple displaced.
A very balanced comment. We'll have to wait and see. Nothing is guaranteed and there lies the beauty of the situation: competition
This is actually the second time Huawei has pulled ahead of Apple. It happened last year too. The difference this time is that the position of Huawei is stronger and its flagships are performing even better than last year. To the point that Huawei announced in July that it hoped to top 200 million units this year. That has resulted in Huawei being described as the tech wolf stalking both Apple and Samsung.
All that without equal access to the world's second largest premium handset market. The US, where it could do serious damage to Apple, just as it is doing in every Apple market where it has equal access. In fact, and due to the protectionist nature of the restictions in the US, Huawei has lodged a formal request that the FTC make an official statement on the issue. We will see what the next moves are.
One thing is for sure. Given Apple's guidance for this quarter, if it is largely phone related, Apple will not be giving us more of the same this year. That will be solely due to market realities resulting from the extreme competition over the last two years.
You really don't have a much idea on a what is going to happen, because you see competition where it isn't.
BBK was ahead of Apple in Q3 '16, Q2 '17, Q3'17, and also in the last quarter. Did anyone care? Changed that anything?
If the media, or financial analysts, want to score by quarter, I'm okay with that. At the same time, Company financials are quarterly and yearly, so Apple will always look better in a yearly assessment of sales. It doesn't make any difference except in bragging rights at a particular time.
I'm not yet convinced that either Huawei, Xiaomi, or BKK, are in a position to take Apple's second place position based on yearly unit sales, and I have my doubts that they will challenge Samsung for first place anytime soon. Maybe in 2019. we'll see Apple displaced.
A very balanced comment. We'll have to wait and see. Nothing is guaranteed and there lies the beauty of the situation: competition
This is actually the second time Huawei has pulled ahead of Apple. It happened last year too. The difference this time is that the position of Huawei is stronger and its flagships are performing even better than last year. To the point that Huawei announced in July that it hoped to top 200 million units this year. That has resulted in Huawei being described as the tech wolf stalking both Apple and Samsung.
All that without equal access to the world's second largest premium handset market. The US, where it could do serious damage to Apple, just as it is doing in every Apple market where it has equal access. In fact, and due to the protectionist nature of the restictions in the US, Huawei has lodged a formal request that the FTC make an official statement on the issue. We will see what the next moves are.
One thing is for sure. Given Apple's guidance for this quarter, if it is largely phone related, Apple will not be giving us more of the same this year. That will be solely due to market realities resulting from the extreme competition over the last two years.
You really don't have a much idea on a what is going to happen, because you see competition where it isn't.
Horace's preview, based on historical data, is that Apple will have a revenue of $120B for CY 2018, Q4, ie, the Christmas quarter coming up.
That belies all of the pronouncements you've made about " market realities resulting from extreme competition over the last two years."
What ideas do you have? Why do you insistently give Horace's?
Market realities are that Apple changed its model by releasing three phones last year. That change doesn't now appear to be a one off if recent rumours are to be believed. Secondly, it extended its product offering to a size never seen before. It is STILL actively pushing iPhone 6 units worldwide (not just developing markets). Thirdly, almost all rumours (we can't know for sure until September) point to an 'affordable' model in the new lineup. Fourth, Apple has literally been flat in iPhone unit shipments for three years and this year has been the same so far. Fifth, Huawei has rocked the boat on many fronts (modem, battery, charging, design, camera etc), stepping over even the iPhone X in many people's opinions. Six, while Apple has seen some YoY share losses, Huawei has been bucking the trend. Seven. Apple has benefited from US protectionist measures and not having to scrap it out with Huawei on equal terms.
Now, apart from the rumours on an 'affordable' new model, those are market realities.
Do you expect Apple to simply follow in the footsteps of last year, release three expensive phones and be done with it?
If you do, that is perfectly ok because no one knows and we won't know until September but if that happens, Apple had better have some truly compelling reason to convince people to buy into the deal. If that compelling reason isn't there, what can they do? Adjust pricing (down, of course ;-) ) is always an option and that is exactly what the rumours are pointing to (coincidence?) but if that happens I assure you it won't have been because of pressure from Samsung but because of those market realities and that a lot of people who claim share is irrevelant for Apple will have some serious rethinking to do.
I don't profess to know what will happen next month but those market realities are very, very real.
The big question is how much of Apple's current quarter guidance relates to the iPhone business (still Apple's biggest revenue earner). Remember, we are talking strictly iPhone here.
How many of these were the red KFC-branded knockoff iphone, I wonder? That absurd model still cracks me up. Can you imagine Apple releasing, I don’t know, a Subway-branded phone? Or Dairy Queen? What a joke, they’d be crucified.
There is overwhelming evidence that Huawei phones are being used by the Chinese to spy on Americans according to US senator Tom Cotton.
Android slaves don't care about privacy.
Android slaves.... LOL
I would hope others here appreciate the silliness of hating an entire group of people, billions of individuals you don't know, because of the phone they chose to buy. Really? The company name on an electronic phone you bought has become the defining characteristic of whether you are free and/or have worth in life?
They're slaves because their dumbasses know their iKnockoffs sell their user data.
It's okay for these morons to call people more intelligent and successful than them "sheep" but as soon as you expose the truth(data mining) we cross the line by calling them slaves?
Do you think it's OK to call anyone names (slaves, morons etc), denigrate them claiming it proves them poorer, less successful and less intelligent than you simply because of the phone they decided to buy? Apparently so. I don't. It's a damn phone. What's the difference between you calling someone else a "slave" and them calling you a "sheep"? Both sound pretty dumb to me over some silly operating system fandom.
BBK was ahead of Apple in Q3 '16, Q2 '17, Q3'17, and also in the last quarter. Did anyone care? Changed that anything?
If the media, or financial analysts, want to score by quarter, I'm okay with that. At the same time, Company financials are quarterly and yearly, so Apple will always look better in a yearly assessment of sales. It doesn't make any difference except in bragging rights at a particular time.
I'm not yet convinced that either Huawei, Xiaomi, or BKK, are in a position to take Apple's second place position based on yearly unit sales, and I have my doubts that they will challenge Samsung for first place anytime soon. Maybe in 2019. we'll see Apple displaced.
A very balanced comment. We'll have to wait and see. Nothing is guaranteed and there lies the beauty of the situation: competition
This is actually the second time Huawei has pulled ahead of Apple. It happened last year too. The difference this time is that the position of Huawei is stronger and its flagships are performing even better than last year. To the point that Huawei announced in July that it hoped to top 200 million units this year. That has resulted in Huawei being described as the tech wolf stalking both Apple and Samsung.
All that without equal access to the world's second largest premium handset market. The US, where it could do serious damage to Apple, just as it is doing in every Apple market where it has equal access. In fact, and due to the protectionist nature of the restictions in the US, Huawei has lodged a formal request that the FTC make an official statement on the issue. We will see what the next moves are.
One thing is for sure. Given Apple's guidance for this quarter, if it is largely phone related, Apple will not be giving us more of the same this year. That will be solely due to market realities resulting from the extreme competition over the last two years.
You really don't have a much idea on a what is going to happen, because you see competition where it isn't.
Horace's preview, based on historical data, is that Apple will have a revenue of $120B for CY 2018, Q4, ie, the Christmas quarter coming up.
That belies all of the pronouncements you've made about " market realities resulting from extreme competition over the last two years."
What ideas do you have? Why do you insistently give Horace's?
Market realities are that Apple changed its model by releasing three phones last year. That change doesn't now appear to be a one off if recent rumours are to be believed. Secondly, it extended its product offering to a size never seen before. It is STILL actively pushing iPhone 6 units worldwide (not just developing markets). Thirdly, almost all rumours (we can't know for sure until September) point to an 'affordable' model in the new lineup. Fourth, Apple has literally been flat in iPhone unit shipments for three years and this year has been the same so far. Fifth, Huawei has rocked the boat on many fronts (modem, battery, charging, design, camera etc), stepping over even the iPhone X in many people's opinions. Six, while Apple has seen some YoY share losses, Huawei has been bucking the trend. Seven. Apple has benefited from US protectionist measures and not having to scrap it out with Huawei on equal terms.
Now, apart from the rumours on an 'affordable' new model, those are market realities.
Do you expect Apple to simply follow in the footsteps of last year, release three expensive phones and be done with it?
If you do, that is perfectly ok because no one knows and we won't know until September but if that happens, Apple had better have some truly compelling reason to convince people to buy into the deal. If that compelling reason isn't there, what can they do? Adjust pricing (down, of course ;-) ) is always an option and that is exactly what the rumours are pointing to (coincidence?) but if that happens I assure you it won't have been because of pressure from Samsung but because of those market realities and that a lot of people who claim share is irrevelant for Apple will have some serious rethinking to do.
I don't profess to know what will happen next month but those market realities are very, very real.
The big question is how much of Apple's current quarter guidance relates to the iPhone business (still Apple's biggest revenue earner). Remember, we are talking strictly iPhone here.
Uhm, like the best selling smartphone model on the planet is getting updated and adds two siblings, all with Face ID and an A12, a new Intel modem, and the usual assortment of performance enhancements and whatnot plus iOS 12.
Do you really have no clue on how much these will be in demand? Can you really not see the compelling reason that iPhone users, and Android switchers will be buying these?
In answer to why I link to Horace; it's data rich.
So if his guidance is $120B for the next quarter, then 60% of that is iPhone sales; more or less $72B in iPhone revenue. If we assume an ASP of about $735, then that is something on the order of 95 million units.
Now to me, that seems high, considering that the previous Christmas quarter was $88B in revenue, so that's a 36% increase YOY. But I would note that there is no production issues at all for the two OLED models, and only a slight delay for the LCD model. I'll split the difference, and go with $105B in revenue, and 85 million units, also at $735, with 65 million of those being new models. Apple will be selling an average of 940,000 iPhones a day in this scenario, which is about 120,000 a day more than the previous quarter.
Remember that Apple was struggling with delays on the Face ID components a year ago, but not this year.
BBK was ahead of Apple in Q3 '16, Q2 '17, Q3'17, and also in the last quarter. Did anyone care? Changed that anything?
If the media, or financial analysts, want to score by quarter, I'm okay with that. At the same time, Company financials are quarterly and yearly, so Apple will always look better in a yearly assessment of sales. It doesn't make any difference except in bragging rights at a particular time.
I'm not yet convinced that either Huawei, Xiaomi, or BKK, are in a position to take Apple's second place position based on yearly unit sales, and I have my doubts that they will challenge Samsung for first place anytime soon. Maybe in 2019. we'll see Apple displaced.
A very balanced comment. We'll have to wait and see. Nothing is guaranteed and there lies the beauty of the situation: competition
This is actually the second time Huawei has pulled ahead of Apple. It happened last year too. The difference this time is that the position of Huawei is stronger and its flagships are performing even better than last year. To the point that Huawei announced in July that it hoped to top 200 million units this year. That has resulted in Huawei being described as the tech wolf stalking both Apple and Samsung.
All that without equal access to the world's second largest premium handset market. The US, where it could do serious damage to Apple, just as it is doing in every Apple market where it has equal access. In fact, and due to the protectionist nature of the restictions in the US, Huawei has lodged a formal request that the FTC make an official statement on the issue. We will see what the next moves are.
One thing is for sure. Given Apple's guidance for this quarter, if it is largely phone related, Apple will not be giving us more of the same this year. That will be solely due to market realities resulting from the extreme competition over the last two years.
You really don't have a much idea on a what is going to happen, because you see competition where it isn't.
Horace's preview, based on historical data, is that Apple will have a revenue of $120B for CY 2018, Q4, ie, the Christmas quarter coming up.
That belies all of the pronouncements you've made about " market realities resulting from extreme competition over the last two years."
What ideas do you have? Why do you insistently give Horace's?
Market realities are that Apple changed its model by releasing three phones last year. That change doesn't now appear to be a one off if recent rumours are to be believed. Secondly, it extended its product offering to a size never seen before. It is STILL actively pushing iPhone 6 units worldwide (not just developing markets). Thirdly, almost all rumours (we can't know for sure until September) point to an 'affordable' model in the new lineup. Fourth, Apple has literally been flat in iPhone unit shipments for three years and this year has been the same so far. Fifth, Huawei has rocked the boat on many fronts (modem, battery, charging, design, camera etc), stepping over even the iPhone X in many people's opinions. Six, while Apple has seen some YoY share losses, Huawei has been bucking the trend. Seven. Apple has benefited from US protectionist measures and not having to scrap it out with Huawei on equal terms.
Now, apart from the rumours on an 'affordable' new model, those are market realities.
Do you expect Apple to simply follow in the footsteps of last year, release three expensive phones and be done with it?
If you do, that is perfectly ok because no one knows and we won't know until September but if that happens, Apple had better have some truly compelling reason to convince people to buy into the deal. If that compelling reason isn't there, what can they do? Adjust pricing (down, of course ;-) ) is always an option and that is exactly what the rumours are pointing to (coincidence?) but if that happens I assure you it won't have been because of pressure from Samsung but because of those market realities and that a lot of people who claim share is irrevelant for Apple will have some serious rethinking to do.
I don't profess to know what will happen next month but those market realities are very, very real.
The big question is how much of Apple's current quarter guidance relates to the iPhone business (still Apple's biggest revenue earner). Remember, we are talking strictly iPhone here.
Uhm, like the best selling smartphone model on the planet is getting updated and adds two siblings, all with Face ID and an A12, a new Intel modem, and the usual assortment of performance enhancements and whatnot plus iOS 12.
Do you really have no clue on how much these will be in demand? Can you really not see the compelling reason that iPhone users, and Android switchers will be buying these?
In answer to why I link to Horace; it's data rich.
So if his guidance is $120B for the next quarter, then 60% of that is iPhone sales; more or less $72B in iPhone revenue. If we assume an ASP of about $735, then that is something on the order of 95 million units.
Now to me, that seems high, considering that the previous Christmas quarter was $88B in revenue, so that's a 36% increase YOY. But I would note that there is no production issues at all for the two OLED models, and only a slight delay for the LCD model. I'll split the difference, and go with $105B in revenue, and 85 million units, also at $735, with 65 million of those being new models. Apple will be selling an average of 940,000 iPhones a day in this scenario, which is about 120,000 a day more than the previous quarter.
Remember that Apple was struggling with delays on the Face ID components a year ago, but not this year.
What is your "guidance"?
"Uhm, like the best selling smartphone model on the planet is getting updated and adds two siblings, all with Face ID and an A12, a new Intel modem, and the usual assortment of performance enhancements and whatnot plus iOS 12"
So. More of the same!
There is nothing compelling in that.
Face ID (as it is today) is simply another unlocking biometric. An Intel modem will not be anything to sing and dance about. Apple has been way behind the competition on modems. Is that actually going to change? Huawei will probably formally announce a Cat 19 modem tomorrow. Will Apple? The A11 didn't change things in spite of the performance boost. Why would an A12? The usual assortment of performance enhancements is also what we get every year.
You are not providing anything to justify the jump in guidance.
Now, with 3D depth sensing we know exactly what is coming from Honor at some point because they explained it and demoed it last year. Something that goes far beyond simple biometrics. If Apple copied that it might be compelling. They have already taken Honor's idea of avatar style use for iOS 12 but Honor stated in January that 3D sensing would have pushed prices up too far (one of the reasons iPhone X is so expensive). That was then, though. Things have changed now as even mid range Android phones are already finding it cheap enough to include 3D sensing. So much for being two years behind.
If Apple goes further and implements what Honor demoed (ten times the resolution of Face ID, sub millimetre precision, 3D small object modelling, palm, hand and background removal etc) it might be compelling but if that is held back for the premium model it would just be another expensive iPhone X revision 2. More of the same and the plus $1,000 segment does not have unlimited capacity and according to Gartner, sales had dropped off faster than with previous top of the line Apple models. How many potential $1,000 upgraders does Apple have? It might be true that precisely those iPhone X purchasers could upgrade every year given their financial position but I think that's a stretch.
I think there must be something else on the cards or lower pricing on the new models.
There is overwhelming evidence that Huawei phones are being used by the Chinese to spy on Americans according to US senator Tom Cotton.
Android slaves don't care about privacy.
Android slaves.... LOL
I would hope others here appreciate the silliness of hating an entire group of people, billions of individuals you don't know, because of the phone they chose to buy. Really? The company name on an electronic phone you bought has become the defining characteristic of whether you are free and/or have worth in life?
They're slaves because their dumbasses know their iKnockoffs sell their user data.
It's okay for these morons to call people more intelligent and successful than them "sheep" but as soon as you expose the truth(data mining) we cross the line by calling them slaves?
BBK was ahead of Apple in Q3 '16, Q2 '17, Q3'17, and also in the last quarter. Did anyone care? Changed that anything?
If the media, or financial analysts, want to score by quarter, I'm okay with that. At the same time, Company financials are quarterly and yearly, so Apple will always look better in a yearly assessment of sales. It doesn't make any difference except in bragging rights at a particular time.
I'm not yet convinced that either Huawei, Xiaomi, or BKK, are in a position to take Apple's second place position based on yearly unit sales, and I have my doubts that they will challenge Samsung for first place anytime soon. Maybe in 2019. we'll see Apple displaced.
A very balanced comment. We'll have to wait and see. Nothing is guaranteed and there lies the beauty of the situation: competition
This is actually the second time Huawei has pulled ahead of Apple. It happened last year too. The difference this time is that the position of Huawei is stronger and its flagships are performing even better than last year. To the point that Huawei announced in July that it hoped to top 200 million units this year. That has resulted in Huawei being described as the tech wolf stalking both Apple and Samsung.
All that without equal access to the world's second largest premium handset market. The US, where it could do serious damage to Apple, just as it is doing in every Apple market where it has equal access. In fact, and due to the protectionist nature of the restictions in the US, Huawei has lodged a formal request that the FTC make an official statement on the issue. We will see what the next moves are.
One thing is for sure. Given Apple's guidance for this quarter, if it is largely phone related, Apple will not be giving us more of the same this year. That will be solely due to market realities resulting from the extreme competition over the last two years.
You really don't have a much idea on a what is going to happen, because you see competition where it isn't.
Horace's preview, based on historical data, is that Apple will have a revenue of $120B for CY 2018, Q4, ie, the Christmas quarter coming up.
That belies all of the pronouncements you've made about " market realities resulting from extreme competition over the last two years."
What ideas do you have? Why do you insistently give Horace's?
Market realities are that Apple changed its model by releasing three phones last year. That change doesn't now appear to be a one off if recent rumours are to be believed. Secondly, it extended its product offering to a size never seen before. It is STILL actively pushing iPhone 6 units worldwide (not just developing markets). Thirdly, almost all rumours (we can't know for sure until September) point to an 'affordable' model in the new lineup. Fourth, Apple has literally been flat in iPhone unit shipments for three years and this year has been the same so far. Fifth, Huawei has rocked the boat on many fronts (modem, battery, charging, design, camera etc), stepping over even the iPhone X in many people's opinions. Six, while Apple has seen some YoY share losses, Huawei has been bucking the trend. Seven. Apple has benefited from US protectionist measures and not having to scrap it out with Huawei on equal terms.
Now, apart from the rumours on an 'affordable' new model, those are market realities.
Do you expect Apple to simply follow in the footsteps of last year, release three expensive phones and be done with it?
If you do, that is perfectly ok because no one knows and we won't know until September but if that happens, Apple had better have some truly compelling reason to convince people to buy into the deal. If that compelling reason isn't there, what can they do? Adjust pricing (down, of course ;-) ) is always an option and that is exactly what the rumours are pointing to (coincidence?) but if that happens I assure you it won't have been because of pressure from Samsung but because of those market realities and that a lot of people who claim share is irrevelant for Apple will have some serious rethinking to do.
I don't profess to know what will happen next month but those market realities are very, very real.
The big question is how much of Apple's current quarter guidance relates to the iPhone business (still Apple's biggest revenue earner). Remember, we are talking strictly iPhone here.
Uhm, like the best selling smartphone model on the planet is getting updated and adds two siblings, all with Face ID and an A12, a new Intel modem, and the usual assortment of performance enhancements and whatnot plus iOS 12.
Do you really have no clue on how much these will be in demand? Can you really not see the compelling reason that iPhone users, and Android switchers will be buying these?
In answer to why I link to Horace; it's data rich.
So if his guidance is $120B for the next quarter, then 60% of that is iPhone sales; more or less $72B in iPhone revenue. If we assume an ASP of about $735, then that is something on the order of 95 million units.
Now to me, that seems high, considering that the previous Christmas quarter was $88B in revenue, so that's a 36% increase YOY. But I would note that there is no production issues at all for the two OLED models, and only a slight delay for the LCD model. I'll split the difference, and go with $105B in revenue, and 85 million units, also at $735, with 65 million of those being new models. Apple will be selling an average of 940,000 iPhones a day in this scenario, which is about 120,000 a day more than the previous quarter.
Remember that Apple was struggling with delays on the Face ID components a year ago, but not this year.
What is your "guidance"?
"Uhm, like the best selling smartphone model on the planet is getting updated and adds two siblings, all with Face ID and an A12, a new Intel modem, and the usual assortment of performance enhancements and whatnot plus iOS 12"
So. More of the same!
There is nothing compelling in that.
Face ID (as it is today) is simply another unlocking biometric. An Intel modem will not be anything to sing and dance about. Apple has been way behind the competition on modems. Is that actually going to change? Huawei will probably formally announce a Cat 19 modem tomorrow. Will Apple? The A11 didn't change things in spite of the performance boost. Why would an A12? The usual assortment of performance enhancements is also what we get every year.
You are not providing anything to justify the jump in guidance.
Now, with 3D depth sensing we know exactly what is coming from Honor at some point because they explained it and demoed it last year. Something that goes far beyond simple biometrics. If Apple copied that it might be compelling. They have already taken Honor's idea of avatar style use for iOS 12 but Honor stated in January that 3D sensing would have pushed prices up too far (one of the reasons iPhone X is so expensive). That was then, though. Things have changed now as even mid range Android phones are already finding it cheap enough to include 3D sensing. So much for being two years behind.
If Apple goes further and implements what Honor demoed (ten times the resolution of Face ID, sub millimetre precision, 3D small object modelling, palm, hand and background removal etc) it might be compelling but if that is held back for the premium model it would just be another expensive iPhone X revision 2. More of the same and the plus $1,000 segment does not have unlimited capacity and according to Gartner, sales had dropped off faster than with previous top of the line Apple models. How many potential $1,000 upgraders does Apple have? It might be true that precisely those iPhone X purchasers could upgrade every year given their financial position but I think that's a stretch.
I think there must be something else on the cards or lower pricing on the new models.
I would note that a poll suggests 19% of Android OS users want to move to iOS
I just posted those so that you can ignore even more of the data that I freely link for you. A couple of those links, I would note that you actually commented without really understanding the larger picture for Apple.
Here's news.
Apple is quite aware that the smartphone market is maturing. I am quite aware of the repercussions of that. Huawei making a play for a larger piece of that same mature Android OS market, currently at the expense of Samsung, isn't something that Apple is terribly concerned about. In the not too distant future, Huawei will run into that growth wall as well, only Huawei won't have the luxury of Apple's revenue to transition as smoothly.
The only thing Apple is concerned about is creating a breadth of products and services that supports an increase in revenue growth, which Apple seems to be doing quite well.
I would suggest that you at least read the top link. Even with your deep perception bias, you should be able to understand why Apple keeps growing.
BBK was ahead of Apple in Q3 '16, Q2 '17, Q3'17, and also in the last quarter. Did anyone care? Changed that anything?
If the media, or financial analysts, want to score by quarter, I'm okay with that. At the same time, Company financials are quarterly and yearly, so Apple will always look better in a yearly assessment of sales. It doesn't make any difference except in bragging rights at a particular time.
I'm not yet convinced that either Huawei, Xiaomi, or BKK, are in a position to take Apple's second place position based on yearly unit sales, and I have my doubts that they will challenge Samsung for first place anytime soon. Maybe in 2019. we'll see Apple displaced.
A very balanced comment. We'll have to wait and see. Nothing is guaranteed and there lies the beauty of the situation: competition
This is actually the second time Huawei has pulled ahead of Apple. It happened last year too. The difference this time is that the position of Huawei is stronger and its flagships are performing even better than last year. To the point that Huawei announced in July that it hoped to top 200 million units this year. That has resulted in Huawei being described as the tech wolf stalking both Apple and Samsung.
All that without equal access to the world's second largest premium handset market. The US, where it could do serious damage to Apple, just as it is doing in every Apple market where it has equal access. In fact, and due to the protectionist nature of the restictions in the US, Huawei has lodged a formal request that the FTC make an official statement on the issue. We will see what the next moves are.
One thing is for sure. Given Apple's guidance for this quarter, if it is largely phone related, Apple will not be giving us more of the same this year. That will be solely due to market realities resulting from the extreme competition over the last two years.
You really don't have a much idea on a what is going to happen, because you see competition where it isn't.
Horace's preview, based on historical data, is that Apple will have a revenue of $120B for CY 2018, Q4, ie, the Christmas quarter coming up.
That belies all of the pronouncements you've made about " market realities resulting from extreme competition over the last two years."
What ideas do you have? Why do you insistently give Horace's?
Market realities are that Apple changed its model by releasing three phones last year. That change doesn't now appear to be a one off if recent rumours are to be believed. Secondly, it extended its product offering to a size never seen before. It is STILL actively pushing iPhone 6 units worldwide (not just developing markets). Thirdly, almost all rumours (we can't know for sure until September) point to an 'affordable' model in the new lineup. Fourth, Apple has literally been flat in iPhone unit shipments for three years and this year has been the same so far. Fifth, Huawei has rocked the boat on many fronts (modem, battery, charging, design, camera etc), stepping over even the iPhone X in many people's opinions. Six, while Apple has seen some YoY share losses, Huawei has been bucking the trend. Seven. Apple has benefited from US protectionist measures and not having to scrap it out with Huawei on equal terms.
Now, apart from the rumours on an 'affordable' new model, those are market realities.
Do you expect Apple to simply follow in the footsteps of last year, release three expensive phones and be done with it?
If you do, that is perfectly ok because no one knows and we won't know until September but if that happens, Apple had better have some truly compelling reason to convince people to buy into the deal. If that compelling reason isn't there, what can they do? Adjust pricing (down, of course ;-) ) is always an option and that is exactly what the rumours are pointing to (coincidence?) but if that happens I assure you it won't have been because of pressure from Samsung but because of those market realities and that a lot of people who claim share is irrevelant for Apple will have some serious rethinking to do.
I don't profess to know what will happen next month but those market realities are very, very real.
The big question is how much of Apple's current quarter guidance relates to the iPhone business (still Apple's biggest revenue earner). Remember, we are talking strictly iPhone here.
Uhm, like the best selling smartphone model on the planet is getting updated and adds two siblings, all with Face ID and an A12, a new Intel modem, and the usual assortment of performance enhancements and whatnot plus iOS 12.
Do you really have no clue on how much these will be in demand? Can you really not see the compelling reason that iPhone users, and Android switchers will be buying these?
In answer to why I link to Horace; it's data rich.
So if his guidance is $120B for the next quarter, then 60% of that is iPhone sales; more or less $72B in iPhone revenue. If we assume an ASP of about $735, then that is something on the order of 95 million units.
Now to me, that seems high, considering that the previous Christmas quarter was $88B in revenue, so that's a 36% increase YOY. But I would note that there is no production issues at all for the two OLED models, and only a slight delay for the LCD model. I'll split the difference, and go with $105B in revenue, and 85 million units, also at $735, with 65 million of those being new models. Apple will be selling an average of 940,000 iPhones a day in this scenario, which is about 120,000 a day more than the previous quarter.
Remember that Apple was struggling with delays on the Face ID components a year ago, but not this year.
What is your "guidance"?
"Uhm, like the best selling smartphone model on the planet is getting updated and adds two siblings, all with Face ID and an A12, a new Intel modem, and the usual assortment of performance enhancements and whatnot plus iOS 12"
So. More of the same!
There is nothing compelling in that.
Face ID (as it is today) is simply another unlocking biometric. An Intel modem will not be anything to sing and dance about. Apple has been way behind the competition on modems. Is that actually going to change? Huawei will probably formally announce a Cat 19 modem tomorrow. Will Apple? The A11 didn't change things in spite of the performance boost. Why would an A12? The usual assortment of performance enhancements is also what we get every year.
You are not providing anything to justify the jump in guidance.
Now, with 3D depth sensing we know exactly what is coming from Honor at some point because they explained it and demoed it last year. Something that goes far beyond simple biometrics. If Apple copied that it might be compelling. They have already taken Honor's idea of avatar style use for iOS 12 but Honor stated in January that 3D sensing would have pushed prices up too far (one of the reasons iPhone X is so expensive). That was then, though. Things have changed now as even mid range Android phones are already finding it cheap enough to include 3D sensing. So much for being two years behind.
If Apple goes further and implements what Honor demoed (ten times the resolution of Face ID, sub millimetre precision, 3D small object modelling, palm, hand and background removal etc) it might be compelling but if that is held back for the premium model it would just be another expensive iPhone X revision 2. More of the same and the plus $1,000 segment does not have unlimited capacity and according to Gartner, sales had dropped off faster than with previous top of the line Apple models. How many potential $1,000 upgraders does Apple have? It might be true that precisely those iPhone X purchasers could upgrade every year given their financial position but I think that's a stretch.
I think there must be something else on the cards or lower pricing on the new models.
There you go again. Both links refer to Apple's full range of revenue streams. I made it clear that this is about iPhone only which is one of Apple's major revenue streams all the same.
Nevertheless, I will extract the iPhone commentary from your link:
"iPhone. Among Apple's three revenue growth drivers, the iPhone faces the most headwinds. While Apple can still grow iPhone revenue with modest unit sales growth, the company will likely see less of a revenue boost from huge iPhone ASP gains. It will be difficult for Apple to increase iPhone ASP by another $100 in 2019. Instead, iPhone ASP increases will likely decline.
Apple is expected to unveil three new flagship iPhones (6.5-inch OLED, 5.8-inch OLED, and 6.1-inch LCD) next month. Even if we assume the 6.5-inch OLED is priced higher than iPhone X, the model likely won't have as large of an impact on iPhone ASP as iPhone X, given a smaller share of overall iPhone sales. Instead, the majority of iPhone sales will be found with the 6.1-inch LCD and 5.8-inch OLED iPhones. These models will likely be priced similar to this year's flagship iPhones, making it that much harder for Apple to see another step increase in iPhone ASP"
BBK was ahead of Apple in Q3 '16, Q2 '17, Q3'17, and also in the last quarter. Did anyone care? Changed that anything?
If the media, or financial analysts, want to score by quarter, I'm okay with that. At the same time, Company financials are quarterly and yearly, so Apple will always look better in a yearly assessment of sales. It doesn't make any difference except in bragging rights at a particular time.
I'm not yet convinced that either Huawei, Xiaomi, or BKK, are in a position to take Apple's second place position based on yearly unit sales, and I have my doubts that they will challenge Samsung for first place anytime soon. Maybe in 2019. we'll see Apple displaced.
A very balanced comment. We'll have to wait and see. Nothing is guaranteed and there lies the beauty of the situation: competition
This is actually the second time Huawei has pulled ahead of Apple. It happened last year too. The difference this time is that the position of Huawei is stronger and its flagships are performing even better than last year. To the point that Huawei announced in July that it hoped to top 200 million units this year. That has resulted in Huawei being described as the tech wolf stalking both Apple and Samsung.
All that without equal access to the world's second largest premium handset market. The US, where it could do serious damage to Apple, just as it is doing in every Apple market where it has equal access. In fact, and due to the protectionist nature of the restictions in the US, Huawei has lodged a formal request that the FTC make an official statement on the issue. We will see what the next moves are.
One thing is for sure. Given Apple's guidance for this quarter, if it is largely phone related, Apple will not be giving us more of the same this year. That will be solely due to market realities resulting from the extreme competition over the last two years.
You really don't have a much idea on a what is going to happen, because you see competition where it isn't.
Horace's preview, based on historical data, is that Apple will have a revenue of $120B for CY 2018, Q4, ie, the Christmas quarter coming up.
That belies all of the pronouncements you've made about " market realities resulting from extreme competition over the last two years."
What ideas do you have? Why do you insistently give Horace's?
Market realities are that Apple changed its model by releasing three phones last year. That change doesn't now appear to be a one off if recent rumours are to be believed. Secondly, it extended its product offering to a size never seen before. It is STILL actively pushing iPhone 6 units worldwide (not just developing markets). Thirdly, almost all rumours (we can't know for sure until September) point to an 'affordable' model in the new lineup. Fourth, Apple has literally been flat in iPhone unit shipments for three years and this year has been the same so far. Fifth, Huawei has rocked the boat on many fronts (modem, battery, charging, design, camera etc), stepping over even the iPhone X in many people's opinions. Six, while Apple has seen some YoY share losses, Huawei has been bucking the trend. Seven. Apple has benefited from US protectionist measures and not having to scrap it out with Huawei on equal terms.
Now, apart from the rumours on an 'affordable' new model, those are market realities.
Do you expect Apple to simply follow in the footsteps of last year, release three expensive phones and be done with it?
If you do, that is perfectly ok because no one knows and we won't know until September but if that happens, Apple had better have some truly compelling reason to convince people to buy into the deal. If that compelling reason isn't there, what can they do? Adjust pricing (down, of course ;-) ) is always an option and that is exactly what the rumours are pointing to (coincidence?) but if that happens I assure you it won't have been because of pressure from Samsung but because of those market realities and that a lot of people who claim share is irrevelant for Apple will have some serious rethinking to do.
I don't profess to know what will happen next month but those market realities are very, very real.
The big question is how much of Apple's current quarter guidance relates to the iPhone business (still Apple's biggest revenue earner). Remember, we are talking strictly iPhone here.
Uhm, like the best selling smartphone model on the planet is getting updated and adds two siblings, all with Face ID and an A12, a new Intel modem, and the usual assortment of performance enhancements and whatnot plus iOS 12.
Do you really have no clue on how much these will be in demand? Can you really not see the compelling reason that iPhone users, and Android switchers will be buying these?
In answer to why I link to Horace; it's data rich.
So if his guidance is $120B for the next quarter, then 60% of that is iPhone sales; more or less $72B in iPhone revenue. If we assume an ASP of about $735, then that is something on the order of 95 million units.
Now to me, that seems high, considering that the previous Christmas quarter was $88B in revenue, so that's a 36% increase YOY. But I would note that there is no production issues at all for the two OLED models, and only a slight delay for the LCD model. I'll split the difference, and go with $105B in revenue, and 85 million units, also at $735, with 65 million of those being new models. Apple will be selling an average of 940,000 iPhones a day in this scenario, which is about 120,000 a day more than the previous quarter.
Remember that Apple was struggling with delays on the Face ID components a year ago, but not this year.
What is your "guidance"?
"Uhm, like the best selling smartphone model on the planet is getting updated and adds two siblings, all with Face ID and an A12, a new Intel modem, and the usual assortment of performance enhancements and whatnot plus iOS 12"
So. More of the same!
There is nothing compelling in that.
Face ID (as it is today) is simply another unlocking biometric. An Intel modem will not be anything to sing and dance about. Apple has been way behind the competition on modems. Is that actually going to change? Huawei will probably formally announce a Cat 19 modem tomorrow. Will Apple? The A11 didn't change things in spite of the performance boost. Why would an A12? The usual assortment of performance enhancements is also what we get every year.
You are not providing anything to justify the jump in guidance.
Now, with 3D depth sensing we know exactly what is coming from Honor at some point because they explained it and demoed it last year. Something that goes far beyond simple biometrics. If Apple copied that it might be compelling. They have already taken Honor's idea of avatar style use for iOS 12 but Honor stated in January that 3D sensing would have pushed prices up too far (one of the reasons iPhone X is so expensive). That was then, though. Things have changed now as even mid range Android phones are already finding it cheap enough to include 3D sensing. So much for being two years behind.
If Apple goes further and implements what Honor demoed (ten times the resolution of Face ID, sub millimetre precision, 3D small object modelling, palm, hand and background removal etc) it might be compelling but if that is held back for the premium model it would just be another expensive iPhone X revision 2. More of the same and the plus $1,000 segment does not have unlimited capacity and according to Gartner, sales had dropped off faster than with previous top of the line Apple models. How many potential $1,000 upgraders does Apple have? It might be true that precisely those iPhone X purchasers could upgrade every year given their financial position but I think that's a stretch.
I think there must be something else on the cards or lower pricing on the new models.
We will see soon enough.
I would note that a poll suggests 19% of Android OS users want to move to iOS
I think there was an article right here at AI a couple weeks back with evidence that on a percentage basis Android users are even less likely to change sides than iOS users.
BBK was ahead of Apple in Q3 '16, Q2 '17, Q3'17, and also in the last quarter. Did anyone care? Changed that anything?
If the media, or financial analysts, want to score by quarter, I'm okay with that. At the same time, Company financials are quarterly and yearly, so Apple will always look better in a yearly assessment of sales. It doesn't make any difference except in bragging rights at a particular time.
I'm not yet convinced that either Huawei, Xiaomi, or BKK, are in a position to take Apple's second place position based on yearly unit sales, and I have my doubts that they will challenge Samsung for first place anytime soon. Maybe in 2019. we'll see Apple displaced.
A very balanced comment. We'll have to wait and see. Nothing is guaranteed and there lies the beauty of the situation: competition
This is actually the second time Huawei has pulled ahead of Apple. It happened last year too. The difference this time is that the position of Huawei is stronger and its flagships are performing even better than last year. To the point that Huawei announced in July that it hoped to top 200 million units this year. That has resulted in Huawei being described as the tech wolf stalking both Apple and Samsung.
All that without equal access to the world's second largest premium handset market. The US, where it could do serious damage to Apple, just as it is doing in every Apple market where it has equal access. In fact, and due to the protectionist nature of the restictions in the US, Huawei has lodged a formal request that the FTC make an official statement on the issue. We will see what the next moves are.
One thing is for sure. Given Apple's guidance for this quarter, if it is largely phone related, Apple will not be giving us more of the same this year. That will be solely due to market realities resulting from the extreme competition over the last two years.
You really don't have a much idea on a what is going to happen, because you see competition where it isn't.
Horace's preview, based on historical data, is that Apple will have a revenue of $120B for CY 2018, Q4, ie, the Christmas quarter coming up.
That belies all of the pronouncements you've made about " market realities resulting from extreme competition over the last two years."
What ideas do you have? Why do you insistently give Horace's?
Market realities are that Apple changed its model by releasing three phones last year. That change doesn't now appear to be a one off if recent rumours are to be believed. Secondly, it extended its product offering to a size never seen before. It is STILL actively pushing iPhone 6 units worldwide (not just developing markets). Thirdly, almost all rumours (we can't know for sure until September) point to an 'affordable' model in the new lineup. Fourth, Apple has literally been flat in iPhone unit shipments for three years and this year has been the same so far. Fifth, Huawei has rocked the boat on many fronts (modem, battery, charging, design, camera etc), stepping over even the iPhone X in many people's opinions. Six, while Apple has seen some YoY share losses, Huawei has been bucking the trend. Seven. Apple has benefited from US protectionist measures and not having to scrap it out with Huawei on equal terms.
Now, apart from the rumours on an 'affordable' new model, those are market realities.
Do you expect Apple to simply follow in the footsteps of last year, release three expensive phones and be done with it?
If you do, that is perfectly ok because no one knows and we won't know until September but if that happens, Apple had better have some truly compelling reason to convince people to buy into the deal. If that compelling reason isn't there, what can they do? Adjust pricing (down, of course ;-) ) is always an option and that is exactly what the rumours are pointing to (coincidence?) but if that happens I assure you it won't have been because of pressure from Samsung but because of those market realities and that a lot of people who claim share is irrevelant for Apple will have some serious rethinking to do.
I don't profess to know what will happen next month but those market realities are very, very real.
The big question is how much of Apple's current quarter guidance relates to the iPhone business (still Apple's biggest revenue earner). Remember, we are talking strictly iPhone here.
Uhm, like the best selling smartphone model on the planet is getting updated and adds two siblings, all with Face ID and an A12, a new Intel modem, and the usual assortment of performance enhancements and whatnot plus iOS 12.
Do you really have no clue on how much these will be in demand? Can you really not see the compelling reason that iPhone users, and Android switchers will be buying these?
In answer to why I link to Horace; it's data rich.
So if his guidance is $120B for the next quarter, then 60% of that is iPhone sales; more or less $72B in iPhone revenue. If we assume an ASP of about $735, then that is something on the order of 95 million units.
Now to me, that seems high, considering that the previous Christmas quarter was $88B in revenue, so that's a 36% increase YOY. But I would note that there is no production issues at all for the two OLED models, and only a slight delay for the LCD model. I'll split the difference, and go with $105B in revenue, and 85 million units, also at $735, with 65 million of those being new models. Apple will be selling an average of 940,000 iPhones a day in this scenario, which is about 120,000 a day more than the previous quarter.
Remember that Apple was struggling with delays on the Face ID components a year ago, but not this year.
What is your "guidance"?
"Uhm, like the best selling smartphone model on the planet is getting updated and adds two siblings, all with Face ID and an A12, a new Intel modem, and the usual assortment of performance enhancements and whatnot plus iOS 12"
So. More of the same!
There is nothing compelling in that.
Face ID (as it is today) is simply another unlocking biometric. An Intel modem will not be anything to sing and dance about. Apple has been way behind the competition on modems. Is that actually going to change? Huawei will probably formally announce a Cat 19 modem tomorrow. Will Apple? The A11 didn't change things in spite of the performance boost. Why would an A12? The usual assortment of performance enhancements is also what we get every year.
You are not providing anything to justify the jump in guidance.
Now, with 3D depth sensing we know exactly what is coming from Honor at some point because they explained it and demoed it last year. Something that goes far beyond simple biometrics. If Apple copied that it might be compelling. They have already taken Honor's idea of avatar style use for iOS 12 but Honor stated in January that 3D sensing would have pushed prices up too far (one of the reasons iPhone X is so expensive). That was then, though. Things have changed now as even mid range Android phones are already finding it cheap enough to include 3D sensing. So much for being two years behind.
If Apple goes further and implements what Honor demoed (ten times the resolution of Face ID, sub millimetre precision, 3D small object modelling, palm, hand and background removal etc) it might be compelling but if that is held back for the premium model it would just be another expensive iPhone X revision 2. More of the same and the plus $1,000 segment does not have unlimited capacity and according to Gartner, sales had dropped off faster than with previous top of the line Apple models. How many potential $1,000 upgraders does Apple have? It might be true that precisely those iPhone X purchasers could upgrade every year given their financial position but I think that's a stretch.
I think there must be something else on the cards or lower pricing on the new models.
I would note that a poll suggests 19% of Android OS users want to move to iOS
I just posted those so that you can ignore even more of the data that I freely link for you. A couple of those links, I would note that you actually commented without really understanding the larger picture for Apple.
Here's news.
Apple is quite aware that the smartphone market is maturing. I am quite aware of the repercussions of that. Huawei making a play for a larger piece of that same mature Android OS market, currently at the expense of Samsung, isn't something that Apple is terribly concerned about. In the not too distant future, Huawei will run into that growth wall as well, only Huawei won't have the luxury of Apple's revenue to transition as smoothly.
The only thing Apple is concerned about is creating a breadth of products and services that supports an increase in revenue growth, which Apple seems to be doing quite well.
I would suggest that you at least read the top link. Even with your deep perception bias, you should be able to understand why Apple keeps growing.
You added to your post, which when I replied, consisted of only two links.
You fail to understand that Huawei doesn't have to transition anywhere from phones. Until relatively recently it wasn't even in the handset business and handsets are not its core business anyway. They could leave the market tomorrow and carry on like they had done for the previous 30 years. There would be no market angst either as Huawei isn't a public limited company.
Apple is in a completely different situation.
Of course growth walls exist. That risk (or even negative growth) is a risk every single quarter. Nothing new there. You have to react to maintain growth but Apple has more than 80% of the market to claim! My whole point has been that for services to be able to fully bloom, Apple has to gain share and that can come in a few ways. Last year it adapted its business model. This year we'll see what happens.
BBK was ahead of Apple in Q3 '16, Q2 '17, Q3'17, and also in the last quarter. Did anyone care? Changed that anything?
If the media, or financial analysts, want to score by quarter, I'm okay with that. At the same time, Company financials are quarterly and yearly, so Apple will always look better in a yearly assessment of sales. It doesn't make any difference except in bragging rights at a particular time.
I'm not yet convinced that either Huawei, Xiaomi, or BKK, are in a position to take Apple's second place position based on yearly unit sales, and I have my doubts that they will challenge Samsung for first place anytime soon. Maybe in 2019. we'll see Apple displaced.
A very balanced comment. We'll have to wait and see. Nothing is guaranteed and there lies the beauty of the situation: competition
This is actually the second time Huawei has pulled ahead of Apple. It happened last year too. The difference this time is that the position of Huawei is stronger and its flagships are performing even better than last year. To the point that Huawei announced in July that it hoped to top 200 million units this year. That has resulted in Huawei being described as the tech wolf stalking both Apple and Samsung.
All that without equal access to the world's second largest premium handset market. The US, where it could do serious damage to Apple, just as it is doing in every Apple market where it has equal access. In fact, and due to the protectionist nature of the restictions in the US, Huawei has lodged a formal request that the FTC make an official statement on the issue. We will see what the next moves are.
One thing is for sure. Given Apple's guidance for this quarter, if it is largely phone related, Apple will not be giving us more of the same this year. That will be solely due to market realities resulting from the extreme competition over the last two years.
You really don't have a much idea on a what is going to happen, because you see competition where it isn't.
Horace's preview, based on historical data, is that Apple will have a revenue of $120B for CY 2018, Q4, ie, the Christmas quarter coming up.
That belies all of the pronouncements you've made about " market realities resulting from extreme competition over the last two years."
What ideas do you have? Why do you insistently give Horace's?
Market realities are that Apple changed its model by releasing three phones last year. That change doesn't now appear to be a one off if recent rumours are to be believed. Secondly, it extended its product offering to a size never seen before. It is STILL actively pushing iPhone 6 units worldwide (not just developing markets). Thirdly, almost all rumours (we can't know for sure until September) point to an 'affordable' model in the new lineup. Fourth, Apple has literally been flat in iPhone unit shipments for three years and this year has been the same so far. Fifth, Huawei has rocked the boat on many fronts (modem, battery, charging, design, camera etc), stepping over even the iPhone X in many people's opinions. Six, while Apple has seen some YoY share losses, Huawei has been bucking the trend. Seven. Apple has benefited from US protectionist measures and not having to scrap it out with Huawei on equal terms.
Now, apart from the rumours on an 'affordable' new model, those are market realities.
Do you expect Apple to simply follow in the footsteps of last year, release three expensive phones and be done with it?
If you do, that is perfectly ok because no one knows and we won't know until September but if that happens, Apple had better have some truly compelling reason to convince people to buy into the deal. If that compelling reason isn't there, what can they do? Adjust pricing (down, of course ;-) ) is always an option and that is exactly what the rumours are pointing to (coincidence?) but if that happens I assure you it won't have been because of pressure from Samsung but because of those market realities and that a lot of people who claim share is irrevelant for Apple will have some serious rethinking to do.
I don't profess to know what will happen next month but those market realities are very, very real.
The big question is how much of Apple's current quarter guidance relates to the iPhone business (still Apple's biggest revenue earner). Remember, we are talking strictly iPhone here.
Uhm, like the best selling smartphone model on the planet is getting updated and adds two siblings, all with Face ID and an A12, a new Intel modem, and the usual assortment of performance enhancements and whatnot plus iOS 12.
Do you really have no clue on how much these will be in demand? Can you really not see the compelling reason that iPhone users, and Android switchers will be buying these?
In answer to why I link to Horace; it's data rich.
So if his guidance is $120B for the next quarter, then 60% of that is iPhone sales; more or less $72B in iPhone revenue. If we assume an ASP of about $735, then that is something on the order of 95 million units.
Now to me, that seems high, considering that the previous Christmas quarter was $88B in revenue, so that's a 36% increase YOY. But I would note that there is no production issues at all for the two OLED models, and only a slight delay for the LCD model. I'll split the difference, and go with $105B in revenue, and 85 million units, also at $735, with 65 million of those being new models. Apple will be selling an average of 940,000 iPhones a day in this scenario, which is about 120,000 a day more than the previous quarter.
Remember that Apple was struggling with delays on the Face ID components a year ago, but not this year.
What is your "guidance"?
"Uhm, like the best selling smartphone model on the planet is getting updated and adds two siblings, all with Face ID and an A12, a new Intel modem, and the usual assortment of performance enhancements and whatnot plus iOS 12"
So. More of the same!
There is nothing compelling in that.
Face ID (as it is today) is simply another unlocking biometric. An Intel modem will not be anything to sing and dance about. Apple has been way behind the competition on modems. Is that actually going to change? Huawei will probably formally announce a Cat 19 modem tomorrow. Will Apple? The A11 didn't change things in spite of the performance boost. Why would an A12? The usual assortment of performance enhancements is also what we get every year.
You are not providing anything to justify the jump in guidance.
Now, with 3D depth sensing we know exactly what is coming from Honor at some point because they explained it and demoed it last year. Something that goes far beyond simple biometrics. If Apple copied that it might be compelling. They have already taken Honor's idea of avatar style use for iOS 12 but Honor stated in January that 3D sensing would have pushed prices up too far (one of the reasons iPhone X is so expensive). That was then, though. Things have changed now as even mid range Android phones are already finding it cheap enough to include 3D sensing. So much for being two years behind.
If Apple goes further and implements what Honor demoed (ten times the resolution of Face ID, sub millimetre precision, 3D small object modelling, palm, hand and background removal etc) it might be compelling but if that is held back for the premium model it would just be another expensive iPhone X revision 2. More of the same and the plus $1,000 segment does not have unlimited capacity and according to Gartner, sales had dropped off faster than with previous top of the line Apple models. How many potential $1,000 upgraders does Apple have? It might be true that precisely those iPhone X purchasers could upgrade every year given their financial position but I think that's a stretch.
I think there must be something else on the cards or lower pricing on the new models.
We will see soon enough.
I would note that a poll suggests 19% of Android OS users want to move to iOS
I think there was an article right here at AI a couple weeks back with evidence that on a percentage basis Android users are even less likely to change sides than iOS users.
EDIT: chart here
Current data vs 9 month old chart. Suggests that there is a relative change, at least in the U.S.
BBK was ahead of Apple in Q3 '16, Q2 '17, Q3'17, and also in the last quarter. Did anyone care? Changed that anything?
If the media, or financial analysts, want to score by quarter, I'm okay with that. At the same time, Company financials are quarterly and yearly, so Apple will always look better in a yearly assessment of sales. It doesn't make any difference except in bragging rights at a particular time.
I'm not yet convinced that either Huawei, Xiaomi, or BKK, are in a position to take Apple's second place position based on yearly unit sales, and I have my doubts that they will challenge Samsung for first place anytime soon. Maybe in 2019. we'll see Apple displaced.
A very balanced comment. We'll have to wait and see. Nothing is guaranteed and there lies the beauty of the situation: competition
This is actually the second time Huawei has pulled ahead of Apple. It happened last year too. The difference this time is that the position of Huawei is stronger and its flagships are performing even better than last year. To the point that Huawei announced in July that it hoped to top 200 million units this year. That has resulted in Huawei being described as the tech wolf stalking both Apple and Samsung.
All that without equal access to the world's second largest premium handset market. The US, where it could do serious damage to Apple, just as it is doing in every Apple market where it has equal access. In fact, and due to the protectionist nature of the restictions in the US, Huawei has lodged a formal request that the FTC make an official statement on the issue. We will see what the next moves are.
One thing is for sure. Given Apple's guidance for this quarter, if it is largely phone related, Apple will not be giving us more of the same this year. That will be solely due to market realities resulting from the extreme competition over the last two years.
You really don't have a much idea on a what is going to happen, because you see competition where it isn't.
Horace's preview, based on historical data, is that Apple will have a revenue of $120B for CY 2018, Q4, ie, the Christmas quarter coming up.
That belies all of the pronouncements you've made about " market realities resulting from extreme competition over the last two years."
What ideas do you have? Why do you insistently give Horace's?
Market realities are that Apple changed its model by releasing three phones last year. That change doesn't now appear to be a one off if recent rumours are to be believed. Secondly, it extended its product offering to a size never seen before. It is STILL actively pushing iPhone 6 units worldwide (not just developing markets). Thirdly, almost all rumours (we can't know for sure until September) point to an 'affordable' model in the new lineup. Fourth, Apple has literally been flat in iPhone unit shipments for three years and this year has been the same so far. Fifth, Huawei has rocked the boat on many fronts (modem, battery, charging, design, camera etc), stepping over even the iPhone X in many people's opinions. Six, while Apple has seen some YoY share losses, Huawei has been bucking the trend. Seven. Apple has benefited from US protectionist measures and not having to scrap it out with Huawei on equal terms.
Now, apart from the rumours on an 'affordable' new model, those are market realities.
Do you expect Apple to simply follow in the footsteps of last year, release three expensive phones and be done with it?
If you do, that is perfectly ok because no one knows and we won't know until September but if that happens, Apple had better have some truly compelling reason to convince people to buy into the deal. If that compelling reason isn't there, what can they do? Adjust pricing (down, of course ;-) ) is always an option and that is exactly what the rumours are pointing to (coincidence?) but if that happens I assure you it won't have been because of pressure from Samsung but because of those market realities and that a lot of people who claim share is irrevelant for Apple will have some serious rethinking to do.
I don't profess to know what will happen next month but those market realities are very, very real.
The big question is how much of Apple's current quarter guidance relates to the iPhone business (still Apple's biggest revenue earner). Remember, we are talking strictly iPhone here.
Uhm, like the best selling smartphone model on the planet is getting updated and adds two siblings, all with Face ID and an A12, a new Intel modem, and the usual assortment of performance enhancements and whatnot plus iOS 12.
Do you really have no clue on how much these will be in demand? Can you really not see the compelling reason that iPhone users, and Android switchers will be buying these?
In answer to why I link to Horace; it's data rich.
So if his guidance is $120B for the next quarter, then 60% of that is iPhone sales; more or less $72B in iPhone revenue. If we assume an ASP of about $735, then that is something on the order of 95 million units.
Now to me, that seems high, considering that the previous Christmas quarter was $88B in revenue, so that's a 36% increase YOY. But I would note that there is no production issues at all for the two OLED models, and only a slight delay for the LCD model. I'll split the difference, and go with $105B in revenue, and 85 million units, also at $735, with 65 million of those being new models. Apple will be selling an average of 940,000 iPhones a day in this scenario, which is about 120,000 a day more than the previous quarter.
Remember that Apple was struggling with delays on the Face ID components a year ago, but not this year.
What is your "guidance"?
"Uhm, like the best selling smartphone model on the planet is getting updated and adds two siblings, all with Face ID and an A12, a new Intel modem, and the usual assortment of performance enhancements and whatnot plus iOS 12"
So. More of the same!
There is nothing compelling in that.
Face ID (as it is today) is simply another unlocking biometric. An Intel modem will not be anything to sing and dance about. Apple has been way behind the competition on modems. Is that actually going to change? Huawei will probably formally announce a Cat 19 modem tomorrow. Will Apple? The A11 didn't change things in spite of the performance boost. Why would an A12? The usual assortment of performance enhancements is also what we get every year.
You are not providing anything to justify the jump in guidance.
Now, with 3D depth sensing we know exactly what is coming from Honor at some point because they explained it and demoed it last year. Something that goes far beyond simple biometrics. If Apple copied that it might be compelling. They have already taken Honor's idea of avatar style use for iOS 12 but Honor stated in January that 3D sensing would have pushed prices up too far (one of the reasons iPhone X is so expensive). That was then, though. Things have changed now as even mid range Android phones are already finding it cheap enough to include 3D sensing. So much for being two years behind.
If Apple goes further and implements what Honor demoed (ten times the resolution of Face ID, sub millimetre precision, 3D small object modelling, palm, hand and background removal etc) it might be compelling but if that is held back for the premium model it would just be another expensive iPhone X revision 2. More of the same and the plus $1,000 segment does not have unlimited capacity and according to Gartner, sales had dropped off faster than with previous top of the line Apple models. How many potential $1,000 upgraders does Apple have? It might be true that precisely those iPhone X purchasers could upgrade every year given their financial position but I think that's a stretch.
I think there must be something else on the cards or lower pricing on the new models.
I would note that a poll suggests 19% of Android OS users want to move to iOS
I just posted those so that you can ignore even more of the data that I freely link for you. A couple of those links, I would note that you actually commented without really understanding the larger picture for Apple.
Here's news.
Apple is quite aware that the smartphone market is maturing. I am quite aware of the repercussions of that. Huawei making a play for a larger piece of that same mature Android OS market, currently at the expense of Samsung, isn't something that Apple is terribly concerned about. In the not too distant future, Huawei will run into that growth wall as well, only Huawei won't have the luxury of Apple's revenue to transition as smoothly.
The only thing Apple is concerned about is creating a breadth of products and services that supports an increase in revenue growth, which Apple seems to be doing quite well.
I would suggest that you at least read the top link. Even with your deep perception bias, you should be able to understand why Apple keeps growing.
You added to your post, which when I replied, consisted of only two links.
You fail to understand that Huawei doesn't have to transition anywhere from phones. Until relatively recently it wasn't even in the handset business and handsets are not its core business anyway. They could leave the market tomorrow and carry on like they had done for the previous 30 years. There would be no market angst either as Huawei isn't a public limited company.
Apple is in a completely different situation.
Of course growth walls exist. That risk (or even negative growth) is a risk every single quarter. Nothing new there. You have to react to maintain growth but Apple has more than 80% of the market to claim! My whole point has been that for services to be able to fully bloom, Apple has to gain share and that can come in a few ways. Last year it adapted its business model. This year we'll see what happens.
If you had read the first link, you would have an understanding of how large the current user base is.
"According to my estimates, Apple has sold approximately 120M higher-priced, flagship iPhones (8, 8 Plus, and X) since September 2017. Some of these devices were bought by former Android users switching to iPhone. However, there are only so many premium Android users out there. The majority of sales have likely gone to existing iPhone users upgrading their devices. With an iPhone installed base of approximately 750M users, less than 15% of the iPhone installed base bought a new flagship iPhone over the last nine months.
A small percentage of the iPhone installed base is responsible for driving much of the year-over-year increase in iPhone ASP. While this doesn't necessarily mean that iPhone ASPs are more fragile than they appear, it does add clarity to the current state of the iPhone business. The iPhone upgrade cycle continues to get longer while growth in customer demand for iPhone remains mediocre. Despite these challenges, the sheer size of the iPhone installed base makes it possible for Apple to sell close to 150M higher-priced, flagship iPhones in any given year."
Apple isn't as reliant on iPhone growth for revenue, iPhones are only about 60% of that total, and so are not in a situation that requires them to acquire customers via traditional means which requires huge acquisition costs. That is the path that Huawei is taking, and so far, they are doing as expected.
That said, Huawei could surpass Apple next year for the number two sales position, and it still wouldn't be a issue for Apple. Apple is spending heavily to diversify into new products and services, and to continue creating the most popular line of flagship phones on the planet.
What I see for Huawei are headwinds ahead, that will limit revenue growth within the next 24 months. There's the competition with Samsung, and the rest of the Chinese OEM's, and then there is the recession on the horizon that few seem to want to acknowledge.
Meanwhile, Apple is safe, whatever happens, diversifying and continuing on its low growth trajectory for the iPhone.
You seem to be asking "Why won't Apple react like I want and create an even lower cost, up to date, entry level model".
Simply because they don't need to at this time.
So, yeah, banner quarter coming up, likely breaking that $100B for the quarter revenue milestone, driven by demand for the new iPhone models, with support from services and all of those other products.
BBK was ahead of Apple in Q3 '16, Q2 '17, Q3'17, and also in the last quarter. Did anyone care? Changed that anything?
If the media, or financial analysts, want to score by quarter, I'm okay with that. At the same time, Company financials are quarterly and yearly, so Apple will always look better in a yearly assessment of sales. It doesn't make any difference except in bragging rights at a particular time.
I'm not yet convinced that either Huawei, Xiaomi, or BKK, are in a position to take Apple's second place position based on yearly unit sales, and I have my doubts that they will challenge Samsung for first place anytime soon. Maybe in 2019. we'll see Apple displaced.
A very balanced comment. We'll have to wait and see. Nothing is guaranteed and there lies the beauty of the situation: competition
This is actually the second time Huawei has pulled ahead of Apple. It happened last year too. The difference this time is that the position of Huawei is stronger and its flagships are performing even better than last year. To the point that Huawei announced in July that it hoped to top 200 million units this year. That has resulted in Huawei being described as the tech wolf stalking both Apple and Samsung.
All that without equal access to the world's second largest premium handset market. The US, where it could do serious damage to Apple, just as it is doing in every Apple market where it has equal access. In fact, and due to the protectionist nature of the restictions in the US, Huawei has lodged a formal request that the FTC make an official statement on the issue. We will see what the next moves are.
One thing is for sure. Given Apple's guidance for this quarter, if it is largely phone related, Apple will not be giving us more of the same this year. That will be solely due to market realities resulting from the extreme competition over the last two years.
You really don't have a much idea on a what is going to happen, because you see competition where it isn't.
Horace's preview, based on historical data, is that Apple will have a revenue of $120B for CY 2018, Q4, ie, the Christmas quarter coming up.
That belies all of the pronouncements you've made about " market realities resulting from extreme competition over the last two years."
What ideas do you have? Why do you insistently give Horace's?
Market realities are that Apple changed its model by releasing three phones last year. That change doesn't now appear to be a one off if recent rumours are to be believed. Secondly, it extended its product offering to a size never seen before. It is STILL actively pushing iPhone 6 units worldwide (not just developing markets). Thirdly, almost all rumours (we can't know for sure until September) point to an 'affordable' model in the new lineup. Fourth, Apple has literally been flat in iPhone unit shipments for three years and this year has been the same so far. Fifth, Huawei has rocked the boat on many fronts (modem, battery, charging, design, camera etc), stepping over even the iPhone X in many people's opinions. Six, while Apple has seen some YoY share losses, Huawei has been bucking the trend. Seven. Apple has benefited from US protectionist measures and not having to scrap it out with Huawei on equal terms.
Now, apart from the rumours on an 'affordable' new model, those are market realities.
Do you expect Apple to simply follow in the footsteps of last year, release three expensive phones and be done with it?
If you do, that is perfectly ok because no one knows and we won't know until September but if that happens, Apple had better have some truly compelling reason to convince people to buy into the deal. If that compelling reason isn't there, what can they do? Adjust pricing (down, of course ;-) ) is always an option and that is exactly what the rumours are pointing to (coincidence?) but if that happens I assure you it won't have been because of pressure from Samsung but because of those market realities and that a lot of people who claim share is irrevelant for Apple will have some serious rethinking to do.
I don't profess to know what will happen next month but those market realities are very, very real.
The big question is how much of Apple's current quarter guidance relates to the iPhone business (still Apple's biggest revenue earner). Remember, we are talking strictly iPhone here.
Uhm, like the best selling smartphone model on the planet is getting updated and adds two siblings, all with Face ID and an A12, a new Intel modem, and the usual assortment of performance enhancements and whatnot plus iOS 12.
Do you really have no clue on how much these will be in demand? Can you really not see the compelling reason that iPhone users, and Android switchers will be buying these?
In answer to why I link to Horace; it's data rich.
So if his guidance is $120B for the next quarter, then 60% of that is iPhone sales; more or less $72B in iPhone revenue. If we assume an ASP of about $735, then that is something on the order of 95 million units.
Now to me, that seems high, considering that the previous Christmas quarter was $88B in revenue, so that's a 36% increase YOY. But I would note that there is no production issues at all for the two OLED models, and only a slight delay for the LCD model. I'll split the difference, and go with $105B in revenue, and 85 million units, also at $735, with 65 million of those being new models. Apple will be selling an average of 940,000 iPhones a day in this scenario, which is about 120,000 a day more than the previous quarter.
Remember that Apple was struggling with delays on the Face ID components a year ago, but not this year.
What is your "guidance"?
"Uhm, like the best selling smartphone model on the planet is getting updated and adds two siblings, all with Face ID and an A12, a new Intel modem, and the usual assortment of performance enhancements and whatnot plus iOS 12"
So. More of the same!
There is nothing compelling in that.
Face ID (as it is today) is simply another unlocking biometric. An Intel modem will not be anything to sing and dance about. Apple has been way behind the competition on modems. Is that actually going to change? Huawei will probably formally announce a Cat 19 modem tomorrow. Will Apple? The A11 didn't change things in spite of the performance boost. Why would an A12? The usual assortment of performance enhancements is also what we get every year.
You are not providing anything to justify the jump in guidance.
Now, with 3D depth sensing we know exactly what is coming from Honor at some point because they explained it and demoed it last year. Something that goes far beyond simple biometrics. If Apple copied that it might be compelling. They have already taken Honor's idea of avatar style use for iOS 12 but Honor stated in January that 3D sensing would have pushed prices up too far (one of the reasons iPhone X is so expensive). That was then, though. Things have changed now as even mid range Android phones are already finding it cheap enough to include 3D sensing. So much for being two years behind.
If Apple goes further and implements what Honor demoed (ten times the resolution of Face ID, sub millimetre precision, 3D small object modelling, palm, hand and background removal etc) it might be compelling but if that is held back for the premium model it would just be another expensive iPhone X revision 2. More of the same and the plus $1,000 segment does not have unlimited capacity and according to Gartner, sales had dropped off faster than with previous top of the line Apple models. How many potential $1,000 upgraders does Apple have? It might be true that precisely those iPhone X purchasers could upgrade every year given their financial position but I think that's a stretch.
I think there must be something else on the cards or lower pricing on the new models.
We will see soon enough.
I would note that a poll suggests 19% of Android OS users want to move to iOS
I think there was an article right here at AI a couple weeks back with evidence that on a percentage basis Android users are even less likely to change sides than iOS users.
EDIT: chart here
Current data vs 9 month old chart. Suggests that there is a relative change, at least in the U.S.
I'd suggest instead that it's your poll that's unreliable.
BBK was ahead of Apple in Q3 '16, Q2 '17, Q3'17, and also in the last quarter. Did anyone care? Changed that anything?
If the media, or financial analysts, want to score by quarter, I'm okay with that. At the same time, Company financials are quarterly and yearly, so Apple will always look better in a yearly assessment of sales. It doesn't make any difference except in bragging rights at a particular time.
I'm not yet convinced that either Huawei, Xiaomi, or BKK, are in a position to take Apple's second place position based on yearly unit sales, and I have my doubts that they will challenge Samsung for first place anytime soon. Maybe in 2019. we'll see Apple displaced.
A very balanced comment. We'll have to wait and see. Nothing is guaranteed and there lies the beauty of the situation: competition
This is actually the second time Huawei has pulled ahead of Apple. It happened last year too. The difference this time is that the position of Huawei is stronger and its flagships are performing even better than last year. To the point that Huawei announced in July that it hoped to top 200 million units this year. That has resulted in Huawei being described as the tech wolf stalking both Apple and Samsung.
All that without equal access to the world's second largest premium handset market. The US, where it could do serious damage to Apple, just as it is doing in every Apple market where it has equal access. In fact, and due to the protectionist nature of the restictions in the US, Huawei has lodged a formal request that the FTC make an official statement on the issue. We will see what the next moves are.
One thing is for sure. Given Apple's guidance for this quarter, if it is largely phone related, Apple will not be giving us more of the same this year. That will be solely due to market realities resulting from the extreme competition over the last two years.
You really don't have a much idea on a what is going to happen, because you see competition where it isn't.
Horace's preview, based on historical data, is that Apple will have a revenue of $120B for CY 2018, Q4, ie, the Christmas quarter coming up.
That belies all of the pronouncements you've made about " market realities resulting from extreme competition over the last two years."
What ideas do you have? Why do you insistently give Horace's?
Market realities are that Apple changed its model by releasing three phones last year. That change doesn't now appear to be a one off if recent rumours are to be believed. Secondly, it extended its product offering to a size never seen before. It is STILL actively pushing iPhone 6 units worldwide (not just developing markets). Thirdly, almost all rumours (we can't know for sure until September) point to an 'affordable' model in the new lineup. Fourth, Apple has literally been flat in iPhone unit shipments for three years and this year has been the same so far. Fifth, Huawei has rocked the boat on many fronts (modem, battery, charging, design, camera etc), stepping over even the iPhone X in many people's opinions. Six, while Apple has seen some YoY share losses, Huawei has been bucking the trend. Seven. Apple has benefited from US protectionist measures and not having to scrap it out with Huawei on equal terms.
Now, apart from the rumours on an 'affordable' new model, those are market realities.
Do you expect Apple to simply follow in the footsteps of last year, release three expensive phones and be done with it?
If you do, that is perfectly ok because no one knows and we won't know until September but if that happens, Apple had better have some truly compelling reason to convince people to buy into the deal. If that compelling reason isn't there, what can they do? Adjust pricing (down, of course ;-) ) is always an option and that is exactly what the rumours are pointing to (coincidence?) but if that happens I assure you it won't have been because of pressure from Samsung but because of those market realities and that a lot of people who claim share is irrevelant for Apple will have some serious rethinking to do.
I don't profess to know what will happen next month but those market realities are very, very real.
The big question is how much of Apple's current quarter guidance relates to the iPhone business (still Apple's biggest revenue earner). Remember, we are talking strictly iPhone here.
Uhm, like the best selling smartphone model on the planet is getting updated and adds two siblings, all with Face ID and an A12, a new Intel modem, and the usual assortment of performance enhancements and whatnot plus iOS 12.
Do you really have no clue on how much these will be in demand? Can you really not see the compelling reason that iPhone users, and Android switchers will be buying these?
In answer to why I link to Horace; it's data rich.
So if his guidance is $120B for the next quarter, then 60% of that is iPhone sales; more or less $72B in iPhone revenue. If we assume an ASP of about $735, then that is something on the order of 95 million units.
Now to me, that seems high, considering that the previous Christmas quarter was $88B in revenue, so that's a 36% increase YOY. But I would note that there is no production issues at all for the two OLED models, and only a slight delay for the LCD model. I'll split the difference, and go with $105B in revenue, and 85 million units, also at $735, with 65 million of those being new models. Apple will be selling an average of 940,000 iPhones a day in this scenario, which is about 120,000 a day more than the previous quarter.
Remember that Apple was struggling with delays on the Face ID components a year ago, but not this year.
What is your "guidance"?
"Uhm, like the best selling smartphone model on the planet is getting updated and adds two siblings, all with Face ID and an A12, a new Intel modem, and the usual assortment of performance enhancements and whatnot plus iOS 12"
So. More of the same!
There is nothing compelling in that.
Face ID (as it is today) is simply another unlocking biometric. An Intel modem will not be anything to sing and dance about. Apple has been way behind the competition on modems. Is that actually going to change? Huawei will probably formally announce a Cat 19 modem tomorrow. Will Apple? The A11 didn't change things in spite of the performance boost. Why would an A12? The usual assortment of performance enhancements is also what we get every year.
You are not providing anything to justify the jump in guidance.
Now, with 3D depth sensing we know exactly what is coming from Honor at some point because they explained it and demoed it last year. Something that goes far beyond simple biometrics. If Apple copied that it might be compelling. They have already taken Honor's idea of avatar style use for iOS 12 but Honor stated in January that 3D sensing would have pushed prices up too far (one of the reasons iPhone X is so expensive). That was then, though. Things have changed now as even mid range Android phones are already finding it cheap enough to include 3D sensing. So much for being two years behind.
If Apple goes further and implements what Honor demoed (ten times the resolution of Face ID, sub millimetre precision, 3D small object modelling, palm, hand and background removal etc) it might be compelling but if that is held back for the premium model it would just be another expensive iPhone X revision 2. More of the same and the plus $1,000 segment does not have unlimited capacity and according to Gartner, sales had dropped off faster than with previous top of the line Apple models. How many potential $1,000 upgraders does Apple have? It might be true that precisely those iPhone X purchasers could upgrade every year given their financial position but I think that's a stretch.
I think there must be something else on the cards or lower pricing on the new models.
We will see soon enough.
I would note that a poll suggests 19% of Android OS users want to move to iOS
I think there was an article right here at AI a couple weeks back with evidence that on a percentage basis Android users are even less likely to change sides than iOS users.
EDIT: chart here
Current data vs 9 month old chart. Suggests that there is a relative change, at least in the U.S.
I'd suggest instead that it's your poll that's unreliable.
I don't know if it is unreliable or not, but even you would agree that the net result is that iOS is gaining Android OS switchers;
"Still, the rate of switching between Android and iOS is different than the absolute number of users that switch between the two operating systems. We know Android has a larger base of users than iOS, and because of that larger base, the absolute number of users that switch to iOS from Android is as large or larger than the absolute number of users that switch to Android from iOS. Looking at absolute number of users in this way tends to support claims that iOS gains more former Android users, than Android does former iOS users."
I would rather see data on customer satisfaction, which is in fact, quite relevant.
"When it came to overall customer satisfaction, iPhone X owners in our study gave the product an overall 97% customer satisfaction. While that number is impressive, what really stands out when you do customer satisfaction studies is the percentage who say they are very satisfied with the product. Considering you add up the total number of very satisfied, and satisfied, to get your total customer satisfaction number a product can have a high number of satisfied responses and lower number of very satisfied responses and still achieve a high number. The higher the very satisfied responses, the better a product truly is. In our study, 85% of iPhone X owners said they were very satisfied with the product.
That number is amongst the highest I’ve seen in all the customer satisfaction studied we have conducted across a range of technology products. Just to contrast that with the original Apple Watch research with Wristly I was involved in, 66% of Apple Watch owners indicated they were very satisfied with Apple Watch, a product which also ranked a 97% customer satisfaction number in the first Apple Watch study we did."
By the way here is that link to the "unreliable" data;
MicroLED is irrelevant for the iPhone refresh next month.
That is for the future and will not be a compelling reason to upgrade for the vast majority of users anyway.
The 'good enough' factor is real. Trying to get users to upgrade based on screen quality will be tough if they already consider their current screens good enough.
But, as I said, irrelevant for this refresh anyway.
not likely to be covered by Team AI, Kirin 980 beats Apple(on purpose to be sure) as 1st 7nm SOC, but won't ship until month or 2 after iphone A12. Perhaps a 'fake' earlier this year, Antutu score of 365,000...running 3.0Ghz, utterly annaliating the A11 & prob A12 on the annual specs masserbating cyclical hyperbole?, 2.6 for earliest shipping Kirin 980.
Team AI's utterly disingenous Galaxy Note 9 comparison to iphone X, when we know the correct comparison is with the earlier announced S9. Expect Team AI to do the same thing next year and so on as they full well know the cyclical typical release times, who appears on this year to be leading with massive clickbait stories (including political spamming of AI readers with Apple's partisan activities, with no comments allowed<deep state swampy...Google, FB, Twitter, etc) designed to drive up Google search engine website traffic.
From the Kirin 980, we can expect the A12 to use slightly faster 2,133 LPDDR4X, while the Galaxy S10 early 2019 may get LPDDR5 that has 50% greater bandwidth along with UFS3.0>>>Apple Fans will have to wait until A12 Sept 2019 to get this.
None of this really matters to me or many others who do not care about minor specs upgrades ('minor' being a relative term)
Oh yah, now what are all the trolls in this tread going to say now about the Kirin Honor 2 with zero bezel? Hey Apple, when are you going to ditch the notch so all the copycat makers can make something that looks decent?
Hauwei is designing in house IP, China is going to overtake Apple by 'made in China 2025', bet the family farm on that>u can read up on what China is doing to 'acquire' technology, mostly from USA with help from both Dems & Repubs(Mitch's Chinese wife..business is good), Biden's son Hunter made a killing on the investment deal with Chinese company-we should all have those kinds of 'retire-early' rich kid opportunities. New $200bil in tarriffs going to be problem for iPhone, bet on that too. Funtimes next few yrs.
"The new unit is said to be ~2.2x faster than the Kirin 970’s NPU,
achieving up to 4500 inferences per minute, or 75 fps in their in-house
test. They present figures for the Snapdragon 845 and Apple A11 as well,
and as far as I can tell based on my own testing, these are very much
accurate in terms of the observed performance.
Faster Category 21 Integrated Modem up to 1400Mbps
The new modem in the Kirin 980 elevates the capabilities of the
predecessor – now it’s able to support up to UE Cat 21 download speeds
of up to 1400Mpbs. This is achieved of up to 3x carrier aggregation in
combination of 4x4 MIMO, all while support 2x2 MIMO and new 256-QAM in
the upload link (Category 18), and achieving 200Mbps upload speeds.
6.9bn transistors on <100mm² thanks to TSMC’s new 7nm manufacturing node
" from 2015 before Apple Axx went multicore, just like the competitors:
Misunderstood Mobile Benchmarks Are Hurting The Industry and Consumers
Consumers care about the product and if their budgets can allow the purchase. More often than not with the best bang for buck.
FWIW, Huawei also usually invests more in R&D than Apple and licences a huge amount of patents to Apple too.
nonsense. Most Android users care about one thing only. Price. What phone can I get for $40. Period. You may sugarcoat it and say "best bang for the buck", but we know everything at that price point (i.e. bottom-of-barrel) is basically junk.
I haven't bothered to compare Apple's and Huawei's R&D budgets, but I do know that Huawei's must be up there to come out with so many variations and knockoffs, where Apple just has to deal with a tiny number of iPhone models. Big difference. Again, you're sugarcoating it.
Nonsense? No.
9,000,000 P20 and P20 Pros shipped in that quarter. That's a starting price of over $500 a pop.
That puts your $40 claim into stark contrast and is from just ONE Android vendor and is excluding Honor.
Unless you can provide a link that shows that P20 Lite was excluded from the 9 million, I call bullshit. That fact is, you extrapolated that 9 million figure. We had this argument before, and you stated as much.
Comments
Good luck, but the Department of Defense and the various National Security Agencies have already acted, and they have authority superior to the FTC.
http://www.asymco.com/2018/08/23/preview-of-the-holiday-quarter/
Horace's preview, based on historical data, is that Apple will have a revenue of $120B for CY 2018, Q4, ie, the Christmas quarter coming up.
That belies all of the pronouncements you've made about " market realities resulting from extreme competition over the last two years."
Market realities are that Apple changed its model by releasing three phones last year. That change doesn't now appear to be a one off if recent rumours are to be believed. Secondly, it extended its product offering to a size never seen before. It is STILL actively pushing iPhone 6 units worldwide (not just developing markets). Thirdly, almost all rumours (we can't know for sure until September) point to an 'affordable' model in the new lineup. Fourth, Apple has literally been flat in iPhone unit shipments for three years and this year has been the same so far. Fifth, Huawei has rocked the boat on many fronts (modem, battery, charging, design, camera etc), stepping over even the iPhone X in many people's opinions. Six, while Apple has seen some YoY share losses, Huawei has been bucking the trend. Seven. Apple has benefited from US protectionist measures and not having to scrap it out with Huawei on equal terms.
Now, apart from the rumours on an 'affordable' new model, those are market realities.
Do you expect Apple to simply follow in the footsteps of last year, release three expensive phones and be done with it?
If you do, that is perfectly ok because no one knows and we won't know until September but if that happens, Apple had better have some truly compelling reason to convince people to buy into the deal. If that compelling reason isn't there, what can they do? Adjust pricing (down, of course ;-) ) is always an option and that is exactly what the rumours are pointing to (coincidence?) but if that happens I assure you it won't have been because of pressure from Samsung but because of those market realities and that a lot of people who claim share is irrevelant for Apple will have some serious rethinking to do.
I don't profess to know what will happen next month but those market realities are very, very real.
The big question is how much of Apple's current quarter guidance relates to the iPhone business (still Apple's biggest revenue earner). Remember, we are talking strictly iPhone here.
Do you really have no clue on how much these will be in demand? Can you really not see the compelling reason that iPhone users, and Android switchers will be buying these?
In answer to why I link to Horace; it's data rich.
So if his guidance is $120B for the next quarter, then 60% of that is iPhone sales; more or less $72B in iPhone revenue. If we assume an ASP of about $735, then that is something on the order of 95 million units.
Now to me, that seems high, considering that the previous Christmas quarter was $88B in revenue, so that's a 36% increase YOY. But I would note that there is no production issues at all for the two OLED models, and only a slight delay for the LCD model. I'll split the difference, and go with $105B in revenue, and 85 million units, also at $735, with 65 million of those being new models. Apple will be selling an average of 940,000 iPhones a day in this scenario, which is about 120,000 a day more than the previous quarter.
Remember that Apple was struggling with delays on the Face ID components a year ago, but not this year.
What is your "guidance"?
So. More of the same!
There is nothing compelling in that.
Face ID (as it is today) is simply another unlocking biometric. An Intel modem will not be anything to sing and dance about. Apple has been way behind the competition on modems. Is that actually going to change? Huawei will probably formally announce a Cat 19 modem tomorrow. Will Apple? The A11 didn't change things in spite of the performance boost. Why would an A12? The usual assortment of performance enhancements is also what we get every year.
You are not providing anything to justify the jump in guidance.
Now, with 3D depth sensing we know exactly what is coming from Honor at some point because they explained it and demoed it last year. Something that goes far beyond simple biometrics. If Apple copied that it might be compelling. They have already taken Honor's idea of avatar style use for iOS 12 but Honor stated in January that 3D sensing would have pushed prices up too far (one of the reasons iPhone X is so expensive). That was then, though. Things have changed now as even mid range Android phones are already finding it cheap enough to include 3D sensing. So much for being two years behind.
If Apple goes further and implements what Honor demoed (ten times the resolution of Face ID, sub millimetre precision, 3D small object modelling, palm, hand and background removal etc) it might be compelling but if that is held back for the premium model it would just be another expensive iPhone X revision 2. More of the same and the plus $1,000 segment does not have unlimited capacity and according to Gartner, sales had dropped off faster than with previous top of the line Apple models. How many potential $1,000 upgraders does Apple have? It might be true that precisely those iPhone X purchasers could upgrade every year given their financial position but I think that's a stretch.
I think there must be something else on the cards or lower pricing on the new models.
We will see soon enough.
Welcome to the blocklist.
http://www.asymco.com/2018/08/23/preview-of-the-holiday-quarter/
https://9to5mac.com/2018/08/30/apple-microled-auo/
https://appleinsider.com/articles/18/08/29/apple-buys-ar-lens-startup-akonia-holographics-fuels-apple-glasses-rumors
https://appleinsider.com/articles/18/08/29/nearly-half-of-iphone-owners-plan-to-upgrade-survey-says ;
I would note that a poll suggests 19% of Android OS users want to move to iOS
I just posted those so that you can ignore even more of the data that I freely link for you. A couple of those links, I would note that you actually commented without really understanding the larger picture for Apple.
Here's news.
Apple is quite aware that the smartphone market is maturing. I am quite aware of the repercussions of that. Huawei making a play for a larger piece of that same mature Android OS market, currently at the expense of Samsung, isn't something that Apple is terribly concerned about. In the not too distant future, Huawei will run into that growth wall as well, only Huawei won't have the luxury of Apple's revenue to transition as smoothly.
The only thing Apple is concerned about is creating a breadth of products and services that supports an increase in revenue growth, which Apple seems to be doing quite well.
I would suggest that you at least read the top link. Even with your deep perception bias, you should be able to understand why Apple keeps growing.
Nevertheless, I will extract the iPhone commentary from your link:
"iPhone. Among Apple's three revenue growth drivers, the iPhone faces the most headwinds. While Apple can still grow iPhone revenue with modest unit sales growth, the company will likely see less of a revenue boost from huge iPhone ASP gains. It will be difficult for Apple to increase iPhone ASP by another $100 in 2019. Instead, iPhone ASP increases will likely decline.
Apple is expected to unveil three new flagship iPhones (6.5-inch OLED, 5.8-inch OLED, and 6.1-inch LCD) next month. Even if we assume the 6.5-inch OLED is priced higher than iPhone X, the model likely won't have as large of an impact on iPhone ASP as iPhone X, given a smaller share of overall iPhone sales. Instead, the majority of iPhone sales will be found with the 6.1-inch LCD and 5.8-inch OLED iPhones. These models will likely be priced similar to this year's flagship iPhones, making it that much harder for Apple to see another step increase in iPhone ASP"
A tough year ahead for iPhone?
EDIT: chart here
You fail to understand that Huawei doesn't have to transition anywhere from phones. Until relatively recently it wasn't even in the handset business and handsets are not its core business anyway. They could leave the market tomorrow and carry on like they had done for the previous 30 years. There would be no market angst either as Huawei isn't a public limited company.
Apple is in a completely different situation.
Of course growth walls exist. That risk (or even negative growth) is a risk every single quarter. Nothing new there. You have to react to maintain growth but Apple has more than 80% of the market to claim! My whole point has been that for services to be able to fully bloom, Apple has to gain share and that can come in a few ways. Last year it adapted its business model. This year we'll see what happens.
If you had read the first link, you would have an understanding of how large the current user base is.
"According to my estimates, Apple has sold approximately 120M higher-priced, flagship iPhones (8, 8 Plus, and X) since September 2017. Some of these devices were bought by former Android users switching to iPhone. However, there are only so many premium Android users out there. The majority of sales have likely gone to existing iPhone users upgrading their devices. With an iPhone installed base of approximately 750M users, less than 15% of the iPhone installed base bought a new flagship iPhone over the last nine months.
A small percentage of the iPhone installed base is responsible for driving much of the year-over-year increase in iPhone ASP. While this doesn't necessarily mean that iPhone ASPs are more fragile than they appear, it does add clarity to the current state of the iPhone business. The iPhone upgrade cycle continues to get longer while growth in customer demand for iPhone remains mediocre. Despite these challenges, the sheer size of the iPhone installed base makes it possible for Apple to sell close to 150M higher-priced, flagship iPhones in any given year."
Apple isn't as reliant on iPhone growth for revenue, iPhones are only about 60% of that total, and so are not in a situation that requires them to acquire customers via traditional means which requires huge acquisition costs. That is the path that Huawei is taking, and so far, they are doing as expected.
That said, Huawei could surpass Apple next year for the number two sales position, and it still wouldn't be a issue for Apple. Apple is spending heavily to diversify into new products and services, and to continue creating the most popular line of flagship phones on the planet.
What I see for Huawei are headwinds ahead, that will limit revenue growth within the next 24 months. There's the competition with Samsung, and the rest of the Chinese OEM's, and then there is the recession on the horizon that few seem to want to acknowledge.
Meanwhile, Apple is safe, whatever happens, diversifying and continuing on its low growth trajectory for the iPhone.
You seem to be asking "Why won't Apple react like I want and create an even lower cost, up to date, entry level model".
Simply because they don't need to at this time.
So, yeah, banner quarter coming up, likely breaking that $100B for the quarter revenue milestone, driven by demand for the new iPhone models, with support from services and all of those other products.
"Still, the rate of switching between Android and iOS is different than the absolute number of users that switch between the two operating systems. We know Android has a larger base of users than iOS, and because of that larger base, the absolute number of users that switch to iOS from Android is as large or larger than the absolute number of users that switch to Android from iOS. Looking at absolute number of users in this way tends to support claims that iOS gains more former Android users, than Android does former iOS users."
I would rather see data on customer satisfaction, which is in fact, quite relevant.
Example;
https://techpinions.com/top-takeaways-from-studying-iphone-x-owners/52639
"When it came to overall customer satisfaction, iPhone X owners in our study gave the product an overall 97% customer satisfaction. While that number is impressive, what really stands out when you do customer satisfaction studies is the percentage who say they are very satisfied with the product. Considering you add up the total number of very satisfied, and satisfied, to get your total customer satisfaction number a product can have a high number of satisfied responses and lower number of very satisfied responses and still achieve a high number. The higher the very satisfied responses, the better a product truly is. In our study, 85% of iPhone X owners said they were very satisfied with the product.
That number is amongst the highest I’ve seen in all the customer satisfaction studied we have conducted across a range of technology products. Just to contrast that with the original Apple Watch research with Wristly I was involved in, 66% of Apple Watch owners indicated they were very satisfied with Apple Watch, a product which also ranked a 97% customer satisfaction number in the first Apple Watch study we did."
By the way here is that link to the "unreliable" data;
https://loupventures.com/iphone-intent-to-upgrade-survey-suggests-slight-upside-to-street-numbers/
That is for the future and will not be a compelling reason to upgrade for the vast majority of users anyway.
The 'good enough' factor is real. Trying to get users to upgrade based on screen quality will be tough if they already consider their current screens good enough.
But, as I said, irrelevant for this refresh anyway.
Team AI's utterly disingenous Galaxy Note 9 comparison to iphone X, when we know the correct comparison is with the earlier announced S9. Expect Team AI to do the same thing next year and so on as they full well know the cyclical typical release times, who appears on this year to be leading with massive clickbait stories (including political spamming of AI readers with Apple's partisan activities, with no comments allowed<deep state swampy...Google, FB, Twitter, etc) designed to drive up Google search engine website traffic.
From the Kirin 980, we can expect the A12 to use slightly faster 2,133 LPDDR4X, while the Galaxy S10 early 2019 may get LPDDR5 that has 50% greater bandwidth along with UFS3.0>>>Apple Fans will have to wait until A12 Sept 2019 to get this.
None of this really matters to me or many others who do not care about minor specs upgrades ('minor' being a relative term)
Oh yah, now what are all the trolls in this tread going to say now about the Kirin Honor 2 with zero bezel? Hey Apple, when are you going to ditch the notch so all the copycat makers can make something that looks decent?
Hauwei is designing in house IP, China is going to overtake Apple by 'made in China 2025', bet the family farm on that>u can read up on what China is doing to 'acquire' technology, mostly from USA with help from both Dems & Repubs(Mitch's Chinese wife..business is good), Biden's son Hunter made a killing on the investment deal with Chinese company-we should all have those kinds of 'retire-early' rich kid opportunities. New $200bil in tarriffs going to be problem for iPhone, bet on that too. Funtimes next few yrs.
https://www.pcmag.com/news/363451/honor-magic-2-the-truly-bezeless-phone-weve-waited-for
https://www.anandtech.com/show/13298/hisilicon-announces-the-kirin-980-first-a76-g76-on-7nm
lol, kirin 980 based on Huawei's internal metrics, crushes the A11 with NPU that's 3x greater performance...will A12 match that??? 'we'll see, we'll see'
"The new unit is said to be ~2.2x faster than the Kirin 970’s NPU, achieving up to 4500 inferences per minute, or 75 fps in their in-house test. They present figures for the Snapdragon 845 and Apple A11 as well, and as far as I can tell based on my own testing, these are very much accurate in terms of the observed performance.
Faster Category 21 Integrated Modem up to 1400Mbps
The new modem in the Kirin 980 elevates the capabilities of the predecessor – now it’s able to support up to UE Cat 21 download speeds of up to 1400Mpbs. This is achieved of up to 3x carrier aggregation in combination of 4x4 MIMO, all while support 2x2 MIMO and new 256-QAM in the upload link (Category 18), and achieving 200Mbps upload speeds.
6.9bn transistors on <100mm² thanks to TSMC’s new 7nm manufacturing node
"from 2015 before Apple Axx went multicore, just like the competitors:
Misunderstood Mobile Benchmarks Are Hurting The Industry and Consumers
https://www.forbes.com/sites/patrickmoorhead/2015/06/12/misunderstood-or-inappropriate-mobile-benchmarks-are-hurting-the-industry-and-consumers/#6c8e6d292dc6No love for xaomi, when the $25bil CEO is a long-time Steve Job's fanboy...since he was a young boy? Flattery(copying) is the sincerest...
https://www.anandtech.com/show/13302/ifa-2018-huawei-kirin-980-keynote-live-blog
One of the last slides on the liveblog.
https://images.anandtech.com/doci/13302/1535718707050594758994.jpg
Over 10,000,000 P20 series (not Lite) handsets sold in five months. 15,000,000 projected for 2018.