Kuo: High preorder demand for Apple Watch Series 4, low expectations for 5.8-inch iPhone X...

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Comments

  • Reply 21 of 31
    dewme said:
    The iPhone Xs looks like a great upgrade for anyone who put off buying the iPhone X and still wants a large but very pocketable (but not giant) iPhone with all the bells and whistles.
    All very accurate points. I definitely checked those off myself. I thought the XR looked good too, but the lack of HDR support in the screen tech + lack of an unlocked model for preorder convinced me that the XS was the right choice. The XS is big enough to warrant some types of on-screen editing for photos/video and thus (for me at least), it was important to be able to see true HDR when editing things shot with Smart HDR. 
    edited September 2018 watto_cobra
  • Reply 22 of 31
    tmaytmay Posts: 3,799member
    Rayz2016 said:
    Demand for the 5.8-inch iPhone XS, however, appears to be lower than expected. 

    Ah, the age-old question: expected by whom?
    Some Youtubers are already forecasting lower than expected sales due to higher iPhone availability based on past online sales. They were saying things like how iPhones sold out faster online in the past than they did this year. These people will use any means they can to prove that the prices are too high, therefore showing almost no one will be buying the latest iPhones. Nearly 95% of the reviewers I've read are saying iPhone prices are simply too high, from the coming iPhone Xr to especially the fully optioned iPhone XS Max. Within a few days of sales, quite a few people have already made up their minds that iPhone sales will be quite poor this year.  Since many anti-Apple factions are hoping iPhone sales will be poor, it's a good way to get clicks.  Supposedly this year has already been claimed to be the iPhones worst sales ever due to the (extremely) high cost and lackluster upgrades (same thing said about last year's iPhone).

    So far, I've heard the reasoning if iPhone availability is high, sales will be poor and also if iPhone availability is low, iPhone sales will be poor. Sort of a lose-lose situation for Apple and Apple shareholders. I'm not prone to forecasting sales one way or another based on a couple of days of sales. All that matters to me is what Apple actually sells over the longer period. Forecasting is a waste of time and doesn't always prove accurate.
    Apple has acknowledged that long ownership cycles are now the norm in a mature market, and has embraced that with continuing support of all legacy 64 bit iPhones, from the 5s onward. For customers, this bolsters value in trades and sales to second and third parties, and gives the customer assurance that they are gaining real value when they do purchase new iPhones. Apple is certainly less concerned with making an iPhone sale today over creating a long term, satisfied customer purchasing a range of products and services over a long time frame in the ecosystem.

    I happen to think that Apple will break records in unit sales, revenue and ASP the next quarter, and XR being the sales leader.
    claire1watto_cobra
  • Reply 23 of 31
    Keeping or increasing their ASP in time when market is slowing down is probably one of their strategies.Apple warned investors that sales wont grow earlier. Older, cheaper devices are for savvy customers.Only India is big trouble.

    But i think there will be huge XsMas for Apple this year considering profit.


  • Reply 24 of 31
    AW4 has new features, for the most part XS doesn't.

    Makes sense what he is guessing, but he is basing it on nothing concrete.  
    watto_cobra
  • Reply 25 of 31
    The hits are the Apple Watch Series 4, the iPhone XR and iPhone XS Max. The iPhone XS is simply there to push people to the cheaper XR or up-sell them to the Max.

    The watch will be the big Christmas hit.
    watto_cobra
  • Reply 26 of 31
    claire1claire1 Posts: 510unconfirmed, member
    This year will be another super cycle for BOTH.

    Bigger iPhones and Watch Series 4.

    Only Apple knows sales figures by model and only Apple knows what it was expecting/forecasting by model. Kuo is just guessing based on not having all the facts. I’ll throw in my own anecdote. The 256GB gold XS doesn’t ship until early October and all 5 stores near me say it will not be available on the 21st.

    My anecdotal:
    People are apparently thinking of leaving android for the Watch alone which means another iPhone sale.
    People are saying Watch stole the show and pretty much everyone except the stubborn iKnockoff fan is impressed by Watch.

    The yearly criticisms go iPhone haven't changed:
    "Too expensive", "late to the game" etc. and I'm sure a "gate" is looming.

    Rayz2016 said:
    Demand for the 5.8-inch iPhone XS, however, appears to be lower than expected. 

    Ah, the age-old question: expected by whom?
    Some Youtubers are already forecasting lower than expected sales due to higher iPhone availability based on past online sales. They were saying things like how iPhones sold out faster online in the past than they did this year. These people will use any means they can to prove that the prices are too high, therefore showing almost no one will be buying the latest iPhones. Nearly 95% of the reviewers I've read are saying iPhone prices are simply too high, from the coming iPhone Xr to especially the fully optioned iPhone XS Max. Within a few days of sales, quite a few people have already made up their minds that iPhone sales will be quite poor this year.  Since many anti-Apple factions are hoping iPhone sales will be poor, it's a good way to get clicks.  Supposedly this year has already been claimed to be the iPhones worst sales ever due to the (extremely) high cost and lackluster upgrades (same thing said about last year's iPhone).

    So far, I've heard the reasoning if iPhone availability is high, sales will be poor and also if iPhone availability is low, iPhone sales will be poor. Sort of a lose-lose situation for Apple and Apple shareholders. I'm not prone to forecasting sales one way or another based on a couple of days of sales. All that matters to me is what Apple actually sells over the longer period. Forecasting is a waste of time and doesn't always prove accurate.

    But when the iPhone sells out fast they say Apple is purposely constricting demand to create false hype. The youtubers just spout BS and some people are dumb enough to listen to them. They always make a dumb face on their video thumbnail too and again people fall for this stupidity.


    watto_cobra
  • Reply 27 of 31
    The data point might be as simple as comparing the delivery date slippage. Perhaps those dates didn't slip as much as for iPhone X. And there is an obvious alternative explanation. 
    jony0watto_cobra
  • Reply 28 of 31
    tmay said:
    I happen to think that Apple will break records in unit sales, revenue and ASP the next quarter, and XR being the sales leader.
    ASP and Revenue - Yes, Absolutely. Unit sales - Not so sure. Let us wait for Apple's own holiday quarter revenue projections, that will give a clue about unit sales.
    canukstormwatto_cobra
  • Reply 29 of 31
    I know I'd rather have XS solely because it's the smallest despite being more expensive than Xr.
    watto_cobra
  • Reply 30 of 31
    netrox said:
    I know I'd rather have XS solely because it's the smallest despite being more expensive than Xr.
    Yes that is a great reason and lighter too i think.   Just think, people who like white fronts on their iPhones will no longer have that option once the iPhone 8 is no longer made. There seems to be no chance of this new form factor - with face id sensors and removal of home button - will ever be able to have a white front. they would not be able to hide that sensor array would they?   goodbye white iphones

  • Reply 31 of 31
    jony0jony0 Posts: 269member
    Rayz2016 said:
    Demand for the 5.8-inch iPhone XS, however, appears to be lower than expected. 
    Ah, the age-old question: expected by whom?
    I certainly share your scepticism as far as analyst expectations are concerned, especially when they have an impact on the share price. However I believe in this context it would be Apple's own expectations. Barring any production issues I would think Apple has placed purchase orders according to their expectations. It's a simple matter of going online on the Apple Store and check the expected Delivery Dates.

    I haven't gone through all of the new product line, but I can certify that as of Saturday evening, only 1 day after pre-orders, my Series 4 order has indeed dropped to 3-4 weeks. As a user I was of course disappointed, yet on the other hand as a shareholder I'm quite pleased.
    watto_cobra
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