Does Apple have any premium buyers left for the iPhone XS and iPhone XS Max?

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Comments

  • Reply 21 of 40
    DAalseth said:
    The question though, is will this hold true if there is another 10%-25% on top of the list prices. Tariffs throw a whole different complication into the mix.
    The question of tariffs is a red herring.  China will come to a trade agreement with the US because it's in their best interest to do so.  China suffers far greater in a trade war than does the US.  China sells much more to the US than the US sells to China.

    China NEEDS access to the US market (still the world's largest).  The US does not NEED Chinese manufacturers.  The products the US buys from China most (apparel and commodities) can be sourced from other countries (Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, Taiwan, Vietnam, Philipines, Mexico, etc.).


    It's not a red Herring, Tariffs re protectionist and only protect corruption, inefficiency and graft. Not jobs.
    And. Everyone suffers except the richest, they never pay the price for anything ever.

    Companies cannot change their supply chains like that, finished goods are just a part of the equation. The disruption is immense.

    Tariffs promote inefficiency, and even a return to colonialist mindset where countries are punished for being poorer and less developed and are not even able to use their main advantage (lower wage) and lightweight regulation as a competitive advantage. Instead they are hypocritically bludgeoned considering the right wing pushes to create the same conditions of low regulation and low wages locally.

    Long term, the one losing the most, is the country who think multinationals will suddenly move their whole supply chain to save a few bucks even though most of their clients ARE NOT IN that country. That small companies can just change sourcing when there is no one locally competent to produce it and that their clients will just absorb the cost instead of just delaying that purchase. It doesn't take long to kill a company working on tight margins; a few bad months can do it.

    No one knows what truly causes recessions, except in hindsight... So, not courting them outright would seem to be a prudent thing to do, expecially since we've been in a very long 10 years uptick and normally we are due for one any time soon.

    The orange clown who doesn't know that the assembly part if just a microscopic part of the BOM and that manual assembly of everything that doesn't have a high value added is on the way out anyway except in countries with dirt cheap wages (next stop Africa) is the one pushing for tariffs. That almost all of the value added for companies like Apple comes from the brand and the design, not components and assembly. That there isn't tariff high enough that would make companies think investing in the US worth it to produce medium to low value added stuff; there is a reason why they're not made here.

    But, lets not kid yourself Trumpo  doesn't give a crap that no job are coming back from this and also knows that this is just a regressive consumption tax on the poorest made to pay for the tax cut his palls and lobbyist just gave themselves.

    That's the real reason for tariffs; increasing income taxes are not possible politically so lets appeal to people's "nationalistic" and "jingoistic" tendencies.
    Raising taxes  indirectly by appealing a kind of  nationalistic "xenobophobia" that's strangely appealing to the left and right extremes...
    That people are pissing in their on bowl is temporarily osculted until the impact moves through the whole system.

    BTW, you're talking both sides of your mouths here, the US doesn't need US manufacturers yet it buys 600B and goods from China, find the fracking logic in your "logic". You
    re also assuming all of this is finished goods, and thus easily replaceable.

    Finally,
    And anyone who thinks China will bow to Trump to save a buck don't understand Asian culture at all.
    Saving face is a crucial part of it and they're not sucking at Trump small shroom stick even for tens of billions.

    BTW, China doesn't need to hurt the whole US, they only need to hurt specific people in the US, Trump's voters. And at that targeted game, they're in a much better position than you think.

    We will see if Orange crusher blinks. I bet he will.

    edited September 2018 muthuk_vanalingamdewmeronn
  • Reply 22 of 40
    radarthekatradarthekat Posts: 2,997moderator
    One only needs to search the TED Talk archives for talks about the growing global middle class to know that Apple will have a growing base of users for many years to come.  That many of these users will graduate up through the ranks of feature phones and Android phones is inconsequential; they will eventually find their way to the premium segment, where Apple dominates. 
    ronn
  • Reply 23 of 40
    schlack said:
    I have a hard time believing that the majority of iPhone owners that paid $650-$850 for their phones will pay $1,000 to $1,450 for the current gen premium phones. I’d imagine Apple will hit saturation of those that will sometime soon. Wish they had released a smaller phone in this cycle. 
    The author is not claiming that the majority of iPhone owners will upgrade every cycle, but that Apple's customers are loyal and will repeat an Apple purchase, even if the upgrade cycle is longer. There's also the iPhone Xr for those on a budget.  I don't see why this is a problem; those who can afford the nice fancy new hardware, more power to them.
    pscooter63ronn
  • Reply 24 of 40
    thttht Posts: 3,100member
    Add me to the list. Bought my 6S Plus 128 GB for $950. Haven’t decided on the 5.8 or 6.5 inch yet. Definitely 256 GB, may go 512 GB. Ever since I got my iPad Pro 10.5 LTE, I’m not desirous of the big phone as much anymore. So, it will likely be an XS, either 256 GB or 512 GB.
    SpamSandwich
  • Reply 25 of 40
    rob55 said:
    JinTech said:

    Same. What I find funny is when I told a sales rep at one of the Apple Stores in my area that I ordered the iPhone XS Max with 512GBs he flat out asked I needed that much storage or that much power. Mind you, he doesn’t even know me or what I plan on doing with the phone. I found it absolutely absurd that an actual Apple employee would question my buying habits of their own products!
    I think some people, even an Apple Store employee, can't wrap their heads around paying $1,449 for a smartphone. I say, if you can, then more power to you.
    It was also his tone. Apple employees should know that a large base of their customers are in the creative space. Even when I expressed to him that I would be shooting a lot of video he still seemed to be dismissive. Not what I would expect from an Apple employee. A Samsung or Microsoft employee maybe. If I were him I would ask if I had a gimble or had any lenses...you know, talk creative workflow with me, maybe get me to buy some gear I might not have. 
    watto_cobra
  • Reply 26 of 40
    croprcropr Posts: 914member
    JinTech said:

    Same. What I find funny is when I told a sales rep at one of the Apple Stores in my area that I ordered the iPhone XS Max with 512GBs he flat out asked I needed that much storage or that much power. Mind you, he doesn’t even know me or what I plan on doing with the phone. I found it absolutely absurd that an actual Apple employee would question my buying habits of their own products!
    I don't think that it is commercially a great strategy for a  sales rep to ask such questions, but nevertheless he/she has a point.

    The apps I am frequently  using on my smartphone are: email app, browser app, slack, trello, banking app, train tickets app, spotify and an oocasional game.  I take less than 50 photos a year and I never record a video.  Conclusion a mid range $300 smartphone would be more than sufficient to fulfill my needs.  Because I own a app development company, I have always a high end iPhone and Android device with me  to demo my apps. 

     95% of the users have a very similar usage pattern (with maybe  some more games in the mix). So they too could live with a mid range smartphone. Luckily for Apple stores sales rep, his/her customers (like you) are convinced by the marketing machine of Apple they need the latest and the greatest.

    Most users are still convinced that unless you buy a high end smartphone of $800 or more, you get crap.  This was true in 2015, but not any longer  In the last 3 years the mid range smartphones have improved much more than the high end

    muthuk_vanalingamavon b7
  • Reply 27 of 40
    dewmedewme Posts: 1,988member
    I bet if you were to look at the cost of your iPhone divided up by units of actual consumption (say in hours), not simply ownership time, it would be remarkably inexpensive compared to other high priced consumer products like automobiles which spend the vast majority of their time parked in a garage or parking space. That's before adding in insurance, fuel, maintenance costs, depreciation, usage fees, etc. I actually use my iPhone about 3-4 hours a day almost every day of the year. I use my car about 2 hours a week, often much less. Even if the iPhone only lasts 3-4 years versus 10 years for the car the consumption cost of the iPhone is tiny by comparison. Sure, computers and cars satisfy different use cases but when you start looking at other products you own and use for personal use, even the priciest iPhone is an incredible value for what it delivers. Something to think about.
    brucemcronnwatto_cobra
  • Reply 28 of 40
    Any iPhone user has 6s and below will buy new phone.
    I don't think 7 & 8 will sell a lot. Unless you really don't want to use face id.

    These days not many people buy electric product whole cash at once. Normally 12-36 month no interest payment route taking.
    If you pay monthly for X base module then you can pay 512GB model as well. Monthly cost is not that much so it does not feel much pain.

    Last year X sold pretty good, Even the people and media said it is $1000 phone!!!
    It repeats again.

    Apple's new X line up will save some money for manufacturing cost. Since all 3 models use same logic board and same CPU, etc....
    watto_cobra
  • Reply 29 of 40
    The problem with Apple's marketing strategy is that many of us want a great smartphone but do not care about Face ID, Augmented Reality, Fake Bokeh Cameras or the price premium of OLED. We are consigned to older HW with less capable CPU/GPUs and such.

    While there are many who use their phone as their go to device, many of us do not. I have an Apple Watch, iPad Pro, MacBook Pro, Apple TV HD, Mac Pro Workstation and Mac mini, so do not fly the response that some of us are just of the wrong generation to understand. I doubt anyone who can afford proper HW would prefer to squint at an iPhone to do much of anything productive.

    Apple is fighting the maturity of the market by driving the average selling price higher and higher, but even that has limits. The top model of iPhone is now priced in MacBook Pro territory which is crazy by any standard. They are simply not worth the money being charged and eventually the masses will figure that out.

    Apple cannot endlessly march the price of phones up, but Wall Street wants constant growth. Will Apple at some point become a finance company to capture the interest charges associated with carrying the lease/rental of devices? That is the path General Electric got on and it almost tanked the company- they had to pretend to be a Bank during the 2007-8 market meltdown and got TARP money in a bailout. GE has never recovered and is currently selling off the furniture trying to stave off bankruptcy.
  • Reply 30 of 40
    nhtnht Posts: 4,429member
    I noted in another thread that I would buy a maxed out iPhone IF it had full screen 4K + trackpad mode.  As in, I dock it to. 4K screen and it becomes a trackpad and I can pair with a keyboard.

    With Google Docs and other apps I could do about 70% of non-coding stuff I do a laptop for and for the last 30% I'd consider just using VNC to an iMac.

    At $1099+ I don't think Apple loses too much in terms of ASP or profit vs a MacBook Air or 13" MBP.
  • Reply 31 of 40
    Grayeagle said:
    Maestro64 wrote: "...The third group just buys and hold for as long as they can and then start a new sometime in the future."

    I'm in that third group. I have two 
    SEs (64 and 128) And I intend to keep them until either they disintegrate or I can't get batteries. 

    Why? Verizon no longer keep the wire lines into my home working - - so I had to go wireless.  I need iPhones that are phones primarily, and not the world's greatest cameras and pocket computers. (I've got those covered with an iPad pro and a desktop 27" iMac.)

    My five female grandchildren are already complaining about the decision to stop selling the SE.  Maybe Tim Cook has forgotten that 51% of the population consists of females. 
    Here is what is interesting about this subject. My wife thought she would hate the larger version of the phone, she loves here iPhone 6 and now the 8 and want the plus size next after see her sister's. My daughter would never go back to the SE after upgrading to the 6 she presently uses, and want the XS when the 6 dies. There are a number of other women I know who just like the larger phone. My sister is the only person I know who was not happen when she went from her iPhone 5 to the 7 she currently has, however, she only use the phone for calls and text message and may be take a few picture. Most of the other women i know who like the larger phones tend to use it as pocket computer and do lots of work on it. 

    I do not believe all woman want a small phone because their hands are smaller. Just like not everyone wants a larger screen of the Plus, it is about 20% of the population wants the larger phone and screen. I suspect Apple's data shows sales of the SE have drop way off. Now we are hearing the most vocal of the people who only want the smaller phone.
    muthuk_vanalingamwatto_cobra
  • Reply 32 of 40
    nhtnht Posts: 4,429member
    davgreg said:
    The problem with Apple's marketing strategy is that many of us want a great smartphone but do not care about Face ID, Augmented Reality, Fake Bokeh Cameras or the price premium of OLED. We are consigned to older HW with less capable CPU/GPUs and such.
    Part of what makes them great smartphones is the stuff you don't want.  I dunno what a spec bump really buys you in terms of real world performance in most apps.  Which apps do you regularly use that wouldn't benefit from a nicer screen but would from a faster GPU?  The cost of a better camera is pretty nominal...the primary cost for augmented reality is the better CPU/GPU.
    ronnwatto_cobra
  • Reply 33 of 40
    brucemcbrucemc Posts: 1,519member
    cropr said:
    JinTech said:

    Same. What I find funny is when I told a sales rep at one of the Apple Stores in my area that I ordered the iPhone XS Max with 512GBs he flat out asked I needed that much storage or that much power. Mind you, he doesn’t even know me or what I plan on doing with the phone. I found it absolutely absurd that an actual Apple employee would question my buying habits of their own products!
    I don't think that it is commercially a great strategy for a  sales rep to ask such questions, but nevertheless he/she has a point.

    The apps I am frequently  using on my smartphone are: email app, browser app, slack, trello, banking app, train tickets app, spotify and an oocasional game.  I take less than 50 photos a year and I never record a video.  Conclusion a mid range $300 smartphone would be more than sufficient to fulfill my needs.  Because I own a app development company, I have always a high end iPhone and Android device with me  to demo my apps. 

     95% of the users have a very similar usage pattern (with maybe  some more games in the mix). So they too could live with a mid range smartphone. Luckily for Apple stores sales rep, his/her customers (like you) are convinced by the marketing machine of Apple they need the latest and the greatest.

    Most users are still convinced that unless you buy a high end smartphone of $800 or more, you get crap.  This was true in 2015, but not any longer  In the last 3 years the mid range smartphones have improved much more than the high end

    Would be interested in the research you have to back up this claim.  No doubt some are of course, but 95% of iPhone owners only use a handful of apps that take little memory, and barely take photos and no video?

    Well, that doesn't describe me (not a power user at all, but photos & video consume a good bit on my phone), and certainly not my wife & kids (who struggle with 64GB, mostly due to photos).  

    And your claim doesn't backup the increasing services revenue which point to more app usage.

    Perhaps you are just full of shit...
    ronnwatto_cobra
  • Reply 34 of 40
    brucemcbrucemc Posts: 1,519member

    davgreg said:
    The problem with Apple's marketing strategy is that many of us want a great smartphone but do not care about Face ID, Augmented Reality, Fake Bokeh Cameras or the price premium of OLED. We are consigned to older HW with less capable CPU/GPUs and such.

    While there are many who use their phone as their go to device, many of us do not. I have an Apple Watch, iPad Pro, MacBook Pro, Apple TV HD, Mac Pro Workstation and Mac mini, so do not fly the response that some of us are just of the wrong generation to understand. I doubt anyone who can afford proper HW would prefer to squint at an iPhone to do much of anything productive.

    Apple is fighting the maturity of the market by driving the average selling price higher and higher, but even that has limits. The top model of iPhone is now priced in MacBook Pro territory which is crazy by any standard. They are simply not worth the money being charged and eventually the masses will figure that out.

    Apple cannot endlessly march the price of phones up, but Wall Street wants constant growth. Will Apple at some point become a finance company to capture the interest charges associated with carrying the lease/rental of devices? That is the path General Electric got on and it almost tanked the company- they had to pretend to be a Bank during the 2007-8 market meltdown and got TARP money in a bailout. GE has never recovered and is currently selling off the furniture trying to stave off bankruptcy.
    You suffer from the same issue as the other poster I responded to - in that you seem to think the vast majority of iPhone owners think the same as you, and have the same use cases as you.  And that Apple doesn't sell a device that fits your use cases.

    That iPhone X was the best selling single model throughout 2018 should give enough evidence that a large number of people do want those latest features, including Face ID, or augmented reality, or portrait mode, or great video recording, or fast responses, or quality of manufacture...Unlike you and Cropr, it seems many in the world enjoy such features, and make use of them.  Also, if you read the comments here at all, you might figure out that with trade-in value (especially for those that trade every year or 2), they are not really paying that list price out of pocket.  On a per-hour-of-use basis, the iPhone may be the most cost effective consumer electronics device that people own, even at the high end.  

    Now about you - well if you don't care about any high end or latest h/w features, then surely you could be well satisfied with an iPhone 8 @ $599, or an iPhone 7 @ $449.  The iPhone 8 has the A11 Bionic, is faster than most Android flagships still, will likely be supported "with new software" for at least 4 "more" years (and usable for a few more).  I have an iPhone 7 (will likely upgrade to Xs this year), but outside of my battery life degrading now that it is almost 2 years, the phone operates perfectly.  For someone with limited use cases but enjoys all the benefits of iOS, it can easily be their device for 3-4 more years.

    But sure...Apple doesn't really know what they are doing...
    ronnwatto_cobra
  • Reply 35 of 40
    brucemcbrucemc Posts: 1,519member
    From the article:
    "According to data compiled by Neil Cybart of Above Avalon, Apple's iPhone installed base is now around 750 million users. Yet over the last fiscal year, Apple's total iPhone sales were just above 216 million. That's a lot of phones, all of which are "premium" by industry standards."

    I subscribe to Above Avalon and so get all of this data from Neil.  Just to note that his definition of "installed base" is those who have purchased their iPhone new direct from Apple or reseller.  It does not include those who get hand-me-downs, or purchased from the used market.  He lumps those into the "iPhone user base" (number of persons who own/use an iPhone regardless of how acquired) which is estimated at over 900M now.

    So in the next year or so, Apple is likely to cross the threshold of having over 1 billion active (unique) iPhone users...
    ronnwatto_cobra
  • Reply 36 of 40
    brucemc said:
    From the article:
    "According to data compiled by Neil Cybart of Above Avalon, Apple's iPhone installed base is now around 750 million users. Yet over the last fiscal year, Apple's total iPhone sales were just above 216 million. That's a lot of phones, all of which are "premium" by industry standards."

    I subscribe to Above Avalon and so get all of this data from Neil.  Just to note that his definition of "installed base" is those who have purchased their iPhone new direct from Apple or reseller.  It does not include those who get hand-me-downs, or purchased from the used market.  He lumps those into the "iPhone user base" (number of persons who own/use an iPhone regardless of how acquired) which is estimated at over 900M now.

    So in the next year or so, Apple is likely to cross the threshold of having over 1 billion active (unique) iPhone users...
    Thanks, Bruce! I just quoted you on ped30.com. REALLY great point!
    ronnwatto_cobra
  • Reply 37 of 40
    DAalseth said:
    The question though, is will this hold true if there is another 10%-25% on top of the list prices. Tariffs throw a whole different complication into the mix.
    The question of tariffs is a red herring.  China will come to a trade agreement with the US because it's in their best interest to do so.  China suffers far greater in a trade war than does the US.  China sells much more to the US than the US sells to China.

    China NEEDS access to the US market (still the world's largest).  The US does not NEED Chinese manufacturers.  The products the US buys from China most (apparel and commodities) can be sourced from other countries (Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, Taiwan, Vietnam, Philipines, Mexico, etc.).


    Trade is far more complex than that the iPhone has many parts the come from the US (glass from Kentucky - engineering and design from California) plus serval other parts as well  Trump as wispy paused all tariff s on iPhones. . China leads the world in solar, robotics and batteries for example. Trump wants American's to be coal miners meanwhile China is building giant industrial robots and leading in the renewable energy industries. NICE!
    ronnavon b7
  • Reply 38 of 40
    cropr said:
    JinTech said:

    Same. What I find funny is when I told a sales rep at one of the Apple Stores in my area that I ordered the iPhone XS Max with 512GBs he flat out asked I needed that much storage or that much power. Mind you, he doesn’t even know me or what I plan on doing with the phone. I found it absolutely absurd that an actual Apple employee would question my buying habits of their own products!
    I don't think that it is commercially a great strategy for a  sales rep to ask such questions, but nevertheless he/she has a point.

    The apps I am frequently  using on my smartphone are: email app, browser app, slack, trello, banking app, train tickets app, spotify and an oocasional game.  I take less than 50 photos a year and I never record a video.  Conclusion a mid range $300 smartphone would be more than sufficient to fulfill my needs.  Because I own a app development company, I have always a high end iPhone and Android device with me  to demo my apps. 

     95% of the users have a very similar usage pattern (with maybe  some more games in the mix). So they too could live with a mid range smartphone. Luckily for Apple stores sales rep, his/her customers (like you) are convinced by the marketing machine of Apple they need the latest and the greatest.

    Most users are still convinced that unless you buy a high end smartphone of $800 or more, you get crap.  This was true in 2015, but not any longer  In the last 3 years the mid range smartphones have improved much more than the high end

    So you too are going to assume that I don’t need the latest and greatest when you don’t know the kind of work I do? The fact that I could use a phone to record incredible 4K quality is mind blowing in this day in age. As a documentary filmmaker this is a dream come true. 
    watto_cobra
  • Reply 39 of 40
    nhtnht Posts: 4,429member
    JinTech said:
    cropr said:
    JinTech said:

    Same. What I find funny is when I told a sales rep at one of the Apple Stores in my area that I ordered the iPhone XS Max with 512GBs he flat out asked I needed that much storage or that much power. Mind you, he doesn’t even know me or what I plan on doing with the phone. I found it absolutely absurd that an actual Apple employee would question my buying habits of their own products!
    I don't think that it is commercially a great strategy for a  sales rep to ask such questions, but nevertheless he/she has a point.

    The apps I am frequently  using on my smartphone are: email app, browser app, slack, trello, banking app, train tickets app, spotify and an oocasional game.  I take less than 50 photos a year and I never record a video.  Conclusion a mid range $300 smartphone would be more than sufficient to fulfill my needs.  Because I own a app development company, I have always a high end iPhone and Android device with me  to demo my apps. 

     95% of the users have a very similar usage pattern (with maybe  some more games in the mix). So they too could live with a mid range smartphone. Luckily for Apple stores sales rep, his/her customers (like you) are convinced by the marketing machine of Apple they need the latest and the greatest.

    Most users are still convinced that unless you buy a high end smartphone of $800 or more, you get crap.  This was true in 2015, but not any longer  In the last 3 years the mid range smartphones have improved much more than the high end

    So you too are going to assume that I don’t need the latest and greatest when you don’t know the kind of work I do? The fact that I could use a phone to record incredible 4K quality is mind blowing in this day in age. As a documentary filmmaker this is a dream come true. 
    If I were a documentary filmmaker I'd wait and see what the Red Hydrogen One brings...there's only so many $1500 phones I'm willing to buy for myself in a year.  Especially since I have an Atomos Ninja V, Nikon Z6 on preorder and a looking for a new gimbal as well.
  • Reply 40 of 40
    nht said:
    JinTech said:
    cropr said:
    JinTech said:

    Same. What I find funny is when I told a sales rep at one of the Apple Stores in my area that I ordered the iPhone XS Max with 512GBs he flat out asked I needed that much storage or that much power. Mind you, he doesn’t even know me or what I plan on doing with the phone. I found it absolutely absurd that an actual Apple employee would question my buying habits of their own products!
    I don't think that it is commercially a great strategy for a  sales rep to ask such questions, but nevertheless he/she has a point.

    The apps I am frequently  using on my smartphone are: email app, browser app, slack, trello, banking app, train tickets app, spotify and an oocasional game.  I take less than 50 photos a year and I never record a video.  Conclusion a mid range $300 smartphone would be more than sufficient to fulfill my needs.  Because I own a app development company, I have always a high end iPhone and Android device with me  to demo my apps. 

     95% of the users have a very similar usage pattern (with maybe  some more games in the mix). So they too could live with a mid range smartphone. Luckily for Apple stores sales rep, his/her customers (like you) are convinced by the marketing machine of Apple they need the latest and the greatest.

    Most users are still convinced that unless you buy a high end smartphone of $800 or more, you get crap.  This was true in 2015, but not any longer  In the last 3 years the mid range smartphones have improved much more than the high end

    So you too are going to assume that I don’t need the latest and greatest when you don’t know the kind of work I do? The fact that I could use a phone to record incredible 4K quality is mind blowing in this day in age. As a documentary filmmaker this is a dream come true. 
    If I were a documentary filmmaker I'd wait and see what the Red Hydrogen One brings...there's only so many $1500 phones I'm willing to buy for myself in a year.  Especially since I have an Atomos Ninja V, Nikon Z6 on preorder and a looking for a new gimbal as well.
    Red is completely over the top and unnecessary for a documentary filmmaker, unless of course you are doing something like Planet Earth, or if I were making documentaries with Michael Bay, maybe haha
    watto_cobraronn
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