iPhone XR sales better than iPhone 8 at launch, yet analyst still calls them 'weak'

Posted:
in iPhone edited October 2018
Rosenblatt Securities' Jun Zhang continues to be pessimistic about Apple, with him now saying that global first weekend sales of the iPhone XR are about nine million units, a full million lower than he expected.

iPhone XR color lineup
iPhone XR color lineup


Because of "slowing demand," Zhang has trimmed iPhone XR shipping forecasts by three million units due to "weak preorders." Zhang believes that Apple will start reducing iPhone XS and iPhone XR production by a combined six million units in November and December, with two million of them being the iPhone XR, and iPhone XS units hit for one million.

Zhang previously modeled new iPhone production of 90 million to 95 million units and shipments of 80 million and 85 million units. Rosenblatt is revising estimates to show new iPhone production of 88 million units and shipments of the new models between 76 million and 77 million units including the few days of availability in September and the remainder of the calendar year.

The iPhone data is culled from "sell-through data from various retail channels" with little other detail about how the figures were gleaned. Zhang notes that there were supply constraints at launch for the iPhone 8 -- but failed to note that the launch allotment of the iPhone XR sold through in four days.

Average selling price is expected to increase between eight percent and 10 percent, with "ramping" of new iPad Pro and MacBook models in the same period.

Because of the ASP increase, and the Mac plus iPad ramp, Zhang believes the revenue and earnings will be in line with his previously forecasted figures of $61 billion and $2.65 EPS, with the Apple's revenue guidance figures for the holiday quarter in line or slightly better than $91.2 billion.

Despite all this, Zhang says that Apple stock is a "buy" stock. However, his price targets remain at $200 per share -- a figure that the stock exceeded on August 1. Rosenblatt's target price has lagged behind Apple's actual price for the last four years, with the analyst increasing the price over time -- but never to where the stock is at that point.

Rosenblatt's analysis of Apple's supply chain and sales lie generally on the pessimistic side of the analyst pool. AppleInsider's Daniel Eran Dilger has previously highlighted issues with Rosenblatt's predictions relating to the iPhone, including proclamations about the iPhone X that turned out to be wrong.

Comments

  • Reply 1 of 18
    How they will be calling sales of android flagships in slowing market? Huge success?
    lkrupplostkiwijony0
  • Reply 2 of 18
    Cesar Battistini MazieroCesar Battistini Maziero Posts: 167unconfirmed, member
    frantisek said:
    How they will be calling sales of android flagships in slowing market? Huge success?
    They will sell 2 million phones, and be praised for the huge success. 

    As usual.
    jony0
  • Reply 3 of 18
    frantisek said:
    How they will be calling sales of android flagships in slowing market? Huge success?
    They will sell 2 million phones, and be praised for the huge success. 

    As usual.
    More likely they will "ship" 2 million phones and be praised.  


    However, this poster doesn't care.  I got my Xr and couldn't be happier.  It is "slightly" faster than my 6 :wink: 
    stanthemansupadav03albegarc
  • Reply 4 of 18
    Making overly high projections, and then reducing them and calling Apple "Disappointing" for years now. Been raising his target price to less than AAPL is when he raises it, for years now. How does this guy keep his job? Why does anyone pay any attention to him?
    StrangeDaysjony0
  • Reply 5 of 18
    Selling nine million iPhone XR’s AFTER a month of selling millions of new XS and XS Max iPhones is quite an accomplishment. Not many years ago, an iPhone launch that sold nine million units was a huge success.
    StrangeDaysjony0
  • Reply 6 of 18
    All early adopters and enthusiasts got their Xs or Xs max a month ago. 

    The R is the phone that the normal consumers orders. Most likely to replace their 6 or 7 range phone whenever their contracts are up for renewal. 

    Both my parents are up for renewals and they will replace 6s and 7 plus with 2 XR phones. I bet they will be happy. After they get used to the no home button issue. 


  • Reply 7 of 18
    512ke512ke Posts: 782member
    "I am an analyst. I can easily make Apple phone sales underperform expectations. Gather 'round and behold my magic trick. I predict that Apple will sell a million bajillion iPhones this quarter. [waits for actual figures] There? You see? Apple underperformed my expectations. Voila!"
    DAalsethnetmagemelodyof1974lostkiwiStrangeDaysjony0
  • Reply 8 of 18
    wood1208wood1208 Posts: 2,027member
    XR is 2018 and 2019 sales story. XR is iPhone for many and high sales will be spread over longer period. My only concern is due to it's attractive price/spec vs XS, XR will confuse buyers and will tilt them to buy XR vs XS. Those in XS Max camp is no brainer.
    DAalsethalbegarcmelodyof1974
  • Reply 9 of 18
    One, how would he know what sales are? Two, why should we care what his expectations are? It’s not like they’re based on anything factual, like actual sales data of which he has none.
  • Reply 10 of 18
    Anal-ists try and put down Apple any chance they get. This is normal for them. Move along nothing to see here.
    melodyof1974
  • Reply 11 of 18
    MplsPMplsP Posts: 1,739member
    One, how would he know what sales are? Two, why should we care what his expectations are? It’s not like they’re based on anything factual, like actual sales data of which he has none.
    This. Exactly. Why do people get so worked up over what amounts to a glorified rumor? And what does it matter anyway?
  • Reply 12 of 18
    eightzeroeightzero Posts: 2,505member
    Maybe not the right place to ask this, but I think there is a difference between Xs and Xr in the cell bands supported. I'm quite interested in the 5G stuff that T-Mobile seems to be pushing, and that is the one thing keeping me from finally settling on the Xr. Is this concern warranted?
  • Reply 13 of 18
    This idiot rates the stock a 'buy' yet his price target indicates it will drop almost 10% from today's price. How does he keep his job?
    slprescottStrangeDays
  • Reply 14 of 18
    Rosenblatt's target price has lagged behind Apple's actual price for the last four years, with the analyst increasing the price over time —but never to where the stock is at that point. If these guy were a coach they would be fired. Toss-pots
    StrangeDays
  • Reply 15 of 18
    Rosenblatt's target price has lagged behind Apple's actual price for the last four years, with the analyst increasing the price over time —but never to where the stock is at that point. If these guy were a coach they would be fired.
  • Reply 16 of 18
    tmaytmay Posts: 3,984member
    eightzero said:
    Maybe not the right place to ask this, but I think there is a difference between Xs and Xr in the cell bands supported. I'm quite interested in the 5G stuff that T-Mobile seems to be pushing, and that is the one thing keeping me from finally settling on the Xr. Is this concern warranted?
    Buy the Xr today, sans "5G" support, and sell it when T-Mobile actually supports "5G" in your neighborhood. I'm thinking that 5G rollout isn't going to be all that fast, no matter the hype today.

    Most people are/would be happy with just middle of the road LTE support. 


    lostkiwiStrangeDays
  • Reply 17 of 18
    chasmchasm Posts: 1,706member
    Given this fellow’s incredibly poor track record, he should — at best — be relegated to “token curmudgeon” status in roundups of analysts, not given an entire article (which, correctly, contains links to how off-base he is and has been). You’d be better off asking a panhandler on the street for his predictions on Apple, and it would cost you less in both time and money.

    Some analysts are bearish on Apple, some are bullish, and that’s okay. This one isn’t so much bullish as “bullish” with a slightly rearranged second half of the word, adding a “t” to it.
    StrangeDays
  • Reply 18 of 18
    MplsP said:
    One, how would he know what sales are? Two, why should we care what his expectations are? It’s not like they’re based on anything factual, like actual sales data of which he has none.
    This. Exactly. Why do people get so worked up over what amounts to a glorified rumor? And what does it matter anyway?
    Well, you could ask that about most of the stories on AI and the hand-wringing that accompanies them. What does any of it matter? Not much, really. A way to pass the time. 
    muthuk_vanalingam
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