Thanks to Google (Android), shameless Chinese hardware copycats are able to freeload off Apple’s innovation and industrial design and price accordingly. Google will continue to destroy American business and individual privacy in the name of targeted ad revenue. Apple needs to unleash its next earthshaking product already. No way they’re spending $15+ billion a year in R&D for smaller iPad bezels. What do you have brewing in those secret labs of yours, Tim? And when the ‘ell will it be ready?
Nice. The sky is falling, the falling.
Apple is fine. Competition is fine. Intellectual Property theft is a problem (true) but that’s not on Google.
This administration has taken the M15 “spray and prey” approach to dealing with China (AKA “USA vs China: Trade War”).
The stock market bubble has been driven by government spending. The trajectory of national debt (for almost 20 years and multiple administrations) looks like a space rocket launch. One of the biggest holders of that debt is China. (US Total Debt currently 21 trillion +)
We’re looking at the two trains on the same track, barreling towards each other... it’s no surprise the stock markets of both countries are going ‘ape shit’.
That said, “traders” make money with the stock mark going up or down, it’s only the little guys that get @#$&’d and that’s only if they panic. The market movers (hedge funds) love panic, so they slam the panic button (using analysts) whenever they can.
Apple will weather the downturn without a problem, and probably use the opportunity to buy back stock. Apple has released their best product lineup ever, sales may or may not experience a hiccup on China but it’s a short term concern.
If you want to worry about something, worry about the national debt. Traditionally it’s been the Republican Party that’s tried to reign things in (and be responsible) but they’ve realize increasing military spending gets votes.
When debt becomes greater than GDP risks to growth skyrocket. We’re closing on that moment scary fast...
This may not just end in a year. The admin wants to end the imbalance of trade between China and US. And the PTOUS thinks it is excellent if Apple moves manufacturing back to US. Even is the goals cannot be accomplished, the trend is set. How will Apple be able to maintain its sales in China? And I think most importantly is the lost of goodwill of Chinese toward US. A good business CEO understand the importance of goodwill. Chinese has admired to the extreme of copying and stealing from US. Now since summer all they hear is trade war US wants against China. The western culture is a mystery to Chinese. Several years ago a six year old boy in Jimmy Kimmel TV show will bravely say sending US troops across the globe to kill all Chinese as a way to solve the huge debt US incurred with China. Why US has a huge federal deficit? Because the politicians keeps spending money to please the voters.
This may not just end in a year. The admin wants to end the imbalance of trade between China and US. And the PTOUS thinks it is excellent if Apple moves manufacturing back to US. Even is the goals cannot be accomplished, the trend is set. How will Apple be able to maintain its sales in China? And I think most importantly is the lost of goodwill of Chinese toward US. A good business CEO understand the importance of goodwill. Chinese has admired to the extreme of copying and stealing from US. Now since summer all they hear is trade war US wants against China. The western culture is a mystery to Chinese. Several years ago a six year old boy in Jimmy Kimmel TV show will bravely say sending US troops across the globe to kill all Chinese as a way to solve the huge debt US incurred with China. Why US has a huge federal deficit? Because the politicians keeps spending money to please the voters.
As long as we have a “strong dollar” there will be a trade imbalance. We buy from China because it’s cheap, the same goes or any country.
We have a trade imbalance with almost all of them. No rich person in the US wants a weak dollar because they’re the biggest consumers, so the policy is to prop up the dollar. You want the US to be a manufacturing powerhouse? you weaken the dollar.
I agree on the federal deficit. There is no motivation (for either party) to be responsible... it’s a time bomb.
I think we need a constitutional amendment to fix spending. I’d peg the debt ceiling at 50% of GDP and make the politicians do their jobs. We’ve spent trillions in Afghanistan and Iraq. I’d make wars contingent on war bonds. No public support = no war
Apple increasing manufacturing in the USA is interesting, but it will raise costs. Anyone want to pay 20% more on their iProduct? I don’t have a problem with it in theory, but politicians don’t like talking about the consequences. Jobs, jobs, jobs is such a simplistic rallying cry.
This may not just end in a year. The admin wants to end the imbalance of trade between China and US. And the PTOUS thinks it is excellent if Apple moves manufacturing back to US. Even is the goals cannot be accomplished, the trend is set. How will Apple be able to maintain its sales in China? And I think most importantly is the lost of goodwill of Chinese toward US. A good business CEO understand the importance of goodwill. Chinese has admired to the extreme of copying and stealing from US. Now since summer all they hear is trade war US wants against China. The western culture is a mystery to Chinese. Several years ago a six year old boy in Jimmy Kimmel TV show will bravely say sending US troops across the globe to kill all Chinese as a way to solve the huge debt US incurred with China. Why US has a huge federal deficit? Because the politicians keeps spending money to please the voters.
As long as we have a “strong dollar” there will be a trade imbalance. We buy from China because it’s cheap, the same goes or any country.
We have a trade imbalance with almost all of them. No rich person in the US wants a weak dollar because they’re the biggest consumers, so the policy is to prop up the dollar. You want the US to be a manufacturing powerhouse? you weaken the dollar.
I agree on the federal deficit. There is no motivation (for either party) to be responsible... it’s a time bomb.
I think we need a constitutional amendment to fix spending. I’d peg the debt ceiling at 50% of GDP and make the politicians do their jobs. We’ve spent trillions in Afghanistan and Iraq. I’d make wars contingent on war bonds. No public support = no war
Apple increasing manufacturing in the USA is interesting, but it will raise costs. Anyone want to pay 20% more on their iProduct? I don’t have a problem with it in theory, but politicians don’t like talking about the consequences. Jobs, jobs, jobs is such a simplistic rallying cry.
I think most people have confused the strong dollar effect. China or the manufacturing companies always want to trade for a living. If the dollar gets stronger it means Chinese goods become cheaper. The same amount of dollar will buy more goods. The immediate effect is China will get less dollars for the same amount of goods. The other effect is the manufacturer will get less profit. So strong dollar actually is good for trade imbalance. Most people get this wrong. They think weak dollar will make US goods more competitive. The truth is China has much less buying power, They could not buy more US goods anyway. This is true for most other nations. That is why US has trade deficits with most nations.
Apple stocks drop… analysts drop estimates. Apple stock goes up… analysts raise estimates.
What exactly do they offer if they're just going to react after the fact?
I have said that for many years. Analyst teams like Goldman are, in their stock recommendations, providing no value. If anything, they should be used as a contrarian indicator.
The recent 20% decline in Apple stock price is not based on any credible data. Some claim that it is because Apple changed its policy of divulging unit sales and average sales prices of IPhones, IPads, and Macs. Others attribute the drop to unit sales not increasing. Neither of these can be true because no other cell phone company divulges unit sales and average sales prices and it is wrong to penalize Apple for deciding against this practice. They will continue to report revenues and earnings. The fact that unit sales did not increase should not be bothering anybody. In case nobody noticed, Apple had a 27% increase in iPhone revenues last quarter, despite the lack of increase in unit sales. Apple had a choice, sell few units and make more money or sell more units and make less money. They chose the former and I don’t think that any shareholder should fault them for making that decision.
It is likely that the decline of Apple share represent two factors occurring simultaneously.
First, many articles have reported that suppliers have cut back on the parts they are delivering. As pointed out by Tim Cook and others, these are not reliable indicators of iPhone sales for many reasons. First, there will always be cutbacks. After all, companies order parts for manifacturing and companies reduce those orders when their planned manufacturing run has been fulfilled. Nobody knows, least of all stock analysts, whether these cutbacks mean a reduction in the number of units that are being sold. People should also remember that many manufacturers are using some of these component manufacturers and cutbacks could also represent the general decline in smartphone sales.
Second, the entire stock market is falling. Previously high flying stocks such as Amazon and Facebook have lost 25% or more of their value. Stock fund managers are rushing to take their profits before the market drips further. In my opinion, falls of Amazon and Facebook are warranted because Amazon is extremely overvalued and Facebook is having serious problems with protecting their user data. On the other hand, no bad news has emerged since its spectacular Q4’18 earnings report. In fact, Apple news has been very positive. Apple’s China business is looking up, the first cooperative agreement between China and the U.S. was announced suggest s beginning to the end of the trade war. Reviews of the iPhone XR, iPad Pros, and MacBook Air have been glowingly positive.
Analysts appear to be ignoring to striking new developments: Apple has opened up its own online store refurbished Apple products and many large retailers (Walmart, Bestbuy, Target, Costco) are selling iPhone 6, 6s, 7, X, and 8 for very low prices. The fact that Apple has started selling its own refurbished products tells you that this market has grown large enough for Apple to try to take a cut. Older models of Apple iPhones will be taking market share away from cheaper Androids. Which one would you rather have, an iPhone X or any Samsung or Huawei smartphone for the same price? Apple has found a way to grab market share from Android makers. By leapfrogging all the other smartphone makers in terms of technology, Apple now can offer year old or even two year old technology for the same or lower price as their competitors. I think that Q1’19 sales will pleasantly surprise many people, even diehard Apple fans. Goldman Sachs will be kicking itself for giving its customers bad advice.
Aople has been selling its own refurbished products for at least a decade that I know of. Probably much longer than that.
Imagine what any individual analyst could possibly know regarding the demand for Apple products. Apple itself rarely responds to negative commentary about itself and seeks to reveal as little as possible about its future plans, simply because it doesn’t want to give its competition information they can use to judge demand for Apple products.
Apple’s secrecy, of course, allows analysts to speculate wildly without pushback from the company. Instead, at times when the market undervalues the company based upon speculative guesses about its business, Apple’s reaction is simple. It buys back its own shares by the millions.
Now consider what Apple knows about demand for its products, like how the market reacted over the past year to the iPhone X. Apple has 500 retail stores around the world, all daily gathering data about sales of its product lines, return volumes, defect rates, customer traffic, etc, all correlated against its release schedules and promotions. Apple also has data flowing in from 40,000 Authorized reseller stores, like the chain of high-end and beautifully designed iStores here in the Philippines. Plus data from 350 carrier partners around the world, like AT&T and Verizon. It also has its online sales channels gathering feedback, with dedicated online stores in many countries, listing products in local currencies and local languages. This incredible foo w of data is available only for Apple’s analysis, not available to Goldman Sachs or Bank of America Analysts or Bloomberg, et al.
So who would you expect to have a better handle on demand for individual iPhone models, Mac computers, iPads, etc? It’s very unlikely Apple would be in the position of having ordered too many parts and have to therefore dramatically reduce orders after learning it misjudged demand. It’s much more likely the analysts and pundits have no idea what they are talking about and are playing the same game, with the same results (misinform investors, see stock drop as a reaction, then be proven wildly off base when Apple next reports earnings). Not like we haven’t seen this movie before.
Do you ever wonder how some people can afford 70,000sq ft mansions, Bugatti's, private jets, several homes around the world? it's not from good old honest, hard work ... it's called Insider trading and market manipulation. Goldman is loading the boat with Apple stock guaranteed - likely through some '3rd party'. They will then come out with a cheery outlook after a 'better than expected holiday surprise', raise their estimate and make billions once the stock returns to its former levels. I didn't think I'd see this severe of a pullback - so I'm putting my money where my mouth is and going to add more shares to my already large position -- this is the best Black Friday deal of them all !! Thank you Goldman Sachs and all the foolish investors traders that sell on fear.
Analysts appear to be ignoring to striking new developments: Apple has opened up its own online store refurbished Apple products and many large retailers (Walmart, Bestbuy, Target, Costco) are selling iPhone 6, 6s, 7, X, and 8 for very low prices. The fact that Apple has started selling its own refurbished products tells you that this market has grown large enough for Apple to try to take a cut. Older models of Apple iPhones will be taking market share away from cheaper Androids. Which one would you rather have, an iPhone X or any Samsung or Huawei smartphone for the same price? Apple has found a way to grab market share from Android makers. By leapfrogging all the other smartphone makers in terms of technology, Apple now can offer year old or even two year old technology for the same or lower price as their competitors. I think that Q1’19 sales will pleasantly surprise many people, even diehard Apple fans. Goldman Sachs will be kicking itself for giving its customers bad advice.
The Apple Refurb Store is not new, it’s been around for I don’t even know how many years.
Analysts appear to be ignoring to striking new developments: Apple has opened up its own online store refurbished Apple products and many large retailers (Walmart, Bestbuy, Target, Costco) are selling iPhone 6, 6s, 7, X, and 8 for very low prices. The fact that Apple has started selling its own refurbished products tells you that this market has grown large enough for Apple to try to take a cut. Older models of Apple iPhones will be taking market share away from cheaper Androids. Which one would you rather have, an iPhone X or any Samsung or Huawei smartphone for the same price? Apple has found a way to grab market share from Android makers. By leapfrogging all the other smartphone makers in terms of technology, Apple now can offer year old or even two year old technology for the same or lower price as their competitors. I think that Q1’19 sales will pleasantly surprise many people, even diehard Apple fans. Goldman Sachs will be kicking itself for giving its customers bad advice.
The Apple Refurb Store is not new, it’s been around for I don’t even know how many years.
Long enough to remember buying a refurbished 12" Powerbook from an Apple Store, which may have been before they even had an online store at all.
AAPL is guiding for the biggest quarter in AAPL history. The company is growing and breaking records. They are a profit/cash generating machine. The dividend growth is solid. P/E of less than 15?!?!
Altho this drop isnt just AAPL. Everything is crashing. But of course AAPL takes the headlines. My fav narrative is that Apple’s prices are to blame... man people are original.
As the CEO of Goldman Sachs once testified to Congress, if you do business with Goldman you need to be savvy enough to know when the company is deliberately misleading you about investments.
Agree, I normally don’t buy into Wall Street conspiracies over rank stupidity unless it comes from Goldman Sachs....i suspect they are out to fleece individual investors...how can they predict Apple’s sales over a year?
Thanks to Google (Android), shameless Chinese hardware copycats are able to freeload off Apple’s innovation and industrial design and price accordingly. Google will continue to destroy American business and individual privacy in the name of targeted ad revenue. Apple needs to unleash its next earthshaking product already. No way they’re spending $15+ billion a year in R&D for smaller iPad bezels. What do you have brewing in those secret labs of yours, Tim? And when the ‘ell will it be ready?
You may recall that Apple recently hired the Scotsman who was THE HEAD of Google’s A.I. development? He must have been offered one heck of a paycheck, but he is evidently onboard with Apple’s approach to privacy and is going to see that happen now while reporting to Tim.
Dang... I'm sure hoping these guys don't know something we don't.
I'm fairly sure we're in for a massive economic crash (and cultural general mayhem) at some point in the not too distant future, but I hadn't figured it would be quite this soon.
Comments
Apple is fine. Competition is fine. Intellectual Property theft is a problem (true) but that’s not on Google.
This administration has taken the M15 “spray and prey” approach to dealing with China (AKA “USA vs China: Trade War”).
The stock market bubble has been driven by government spending. The trajectory of national debt (for almost 20 years and multiple administrations) looks like a space rocket launch. One of the biggest holders of that debt is China. (US Total Debt currently 21 trillion +)
We’re looking at the two trains on the same track, barreling towards each other... it’s no surprise the stock markets of both countries are going ‘ape shit’.
That said, “traders” make money with the stock mark going up or down, it’s only the little guys that get @#$&’d and that’s only if they panic. The market movers (hedge funds) love panic, so they slam the panic button (using analysts) whenever they can.
Apple will weather the downturn without a problem, and probably use the opportunity to buy back stock. Apple has released their best product lineup ever, sales may or may not experience a hiccup on China but it’s a short term concern.
If you want to worry about something, worry about the national debt. Traditionally it’s been the Republican Party that’s tried to reign things in (and be responsible) but they’ve realize increasing military spending gets votes.
When debt becomes greater than GDP risks to growth skyrocket. We’re closing on that moment scary fast...
The western culture is a mystery to Chinese. Several years ago a six year old boy in Jimmy Kimmel TV show will bravely say sending US troops across the globe to kill all Chinese as a way to solve the huge debt US incurred with China. Why US has a huge federal deficit? Because the politicians keeps spending money to please the voters.
We have a trade imbalance with almost all of them. No rich person in the US wants a weak dollar because they’re the biggest consumers, so the policy is to prop up the dollar. You want the US to be a manufacturing powerhouse? you weaken the dollar.
I agree on the federal deficit. There is no motivation (for either party) to be responsible... it’s a time bomb.
I think we need a constitutional amendment to fix spending. I’d peg the debt ceiling at 50% of GDP and make the politicians do their jobs. We’ve spent trillions in Afghanistan and Iraq. I’d make wars contingent on war bonds. No public support = no war
Apple increasing manufacturing in the USA is interesting, but it will raise costs. Anyone want to pay 20% more on their iProduct? I don’t have a problem with it in theory, but politicians don’t like talking about the consequences. Jobs, jobs, jobs is such a simplistic rallying cry.
Altho this drop isnt just AAPL. Everything is crashing. But of course AAPL takes the headlines. My fav narrative is that Apple’s prices are to blame... man people are original.
https://www.theverge.com/2018/4/3/17195076/google-ai-chief-john-giannandrea-joining-apple-machine-learning-siri
I'm fairly sure we're in for a massive economic crash (and cultural general mayhem) at some point in the not too distant future, but I hadn't figured it would be quite this soon.