Ming-Chi Kuo says iPhone XR demand is weak, cuts sales estimates for Q1 2019

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Comments

  • Reply 21 of 78
    Maybe they’re all getting the supply chain completely wrong. Wouldn’t be the firs time. Or maybe consumers are balking at the higher prices. A couple years ago the flagship iPhone started at $649. Now it’s $999. That’s not nothing. 
    Or maybe people are OK with the iPhones they already have. The people with the crystal balls declare customer repudiation of new Apple products that don't sell like hotcakes, but I wonder if they simply underestimate how happy people already are with what are undeniably string products.
    hammeroftruth
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  • Reply 22 of 78
    DAalsethdaalseth Posts: 3,261member
    DAalseth said:
    Though I have a healthy degree of skepticism toward analysts projections, this one rings true for me.
    But I think it's not Apple's fault. Rather I think this is part of a much larger swing in the economy. With GM, and trade spats even with friendly counties, and budget deficits, and all sorts of things, I think a lot of people are frightened. Frightened people don't splurge on a $1k phone if the old one is still working. But then they also won't splurge on cars, or stereos, or expensive home furnishings. I suspect this will be a disappointing quarter for Apple, along with the rest of the economy. I've talked to a lot of people who are holding their wallets close, loved ones closer, and are just keeping it simple this year. 
    Personal experience isn’t something that can be argued, however Apple has always made products for the price-insensitive and that hasn’t changed.
    That works when times are good. But when people expect, or are seeing, times get bad the number who are price insensitive drops dramatically. 
    hammeroftruthavon b7elijahg
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  • Reply 23 of 78
    It used to be very clear, if you want the best tech, you get a new iPhone. Then you get to choose a large and extra-large. Then if you wanted a smaller phone like the "old days", you get the SE. Now it is very confusing. If you want a new phone this year, you have to spend $1000 or more. So what is XR, a kind new tech phone that is $750, that is kind between large and extra-large. Apple for years gave people simple choices, but this year, very confusing, and it feels like being tricked into buying a 5c for $100 more.
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  • Reply 24 of 78
    spice-boyspice-boy Posts: 1,454member
    Saturation point achieved. 

    I bought the XS to replace my 6s which I am giving to a friend. My impression is, new body color - okay cool I guess, New swipes to learn due to the vanished home button - oh well I guess that's progress. Heavier in my trouser pocket - I know for sure if it's on me or not. Improved camera - expected but the my 6s took good pictures as well. Still wish Apple returned the close screen - shut down button to the top instead of the right side which I tend to press when picking up the phone. Speaking of picking up my phone half the time it's upside down due to the missing (on the bottom) home button. My point of course each new iPhone builds in new features and improves camera and specs but it's still a phone and less and less people are seeing as the marvel it once was. 
    tokyojimuatomic101
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  • Reply 25 of 78
    Most articles here and on other sites  [used to call] Ming-Chi Kuo "Well Connected"...  That always meant to me that he had good muscle tone and strong tendons :D
    edited December 2018
    DAalsethbrisance
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  • Reply 26 of 78
    DAalsethdaalseth Posts: 3,261member
    It used to be very clear, if you want the best tech, you get a new iPhone. Then you get to choose a large and extra-large. Then if you wanted a smaller phone like the "old days", you get the SE. Now it is very confusing. If you want a new phone this year, you have to spend $1000 or more. So what is XR, a kind new tech phone that is $750, that is kind between large and extra-large. Apple for years gave people simple choices, but this year, very confusing, and it feels like being tricked into buying a 5c for $100 more.
    Yes it is very sad that the SE has been discontinued. There is now no small form factor/gateway iPhone .
    edited December 2018
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  • Reply 27 of 78
    Rayz2016 said:
    JFC_PA said:
    He got the numbers wrong last year iirc. 

    He gets quite a few things wrong, so I have no idea why he's seen as some kind of prophet.


    The things Kuo is right on are things where he is basically stating the obvious. 
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  • Reply 28 of 78
    M68000m68000 Posts: 933member
    Kind of wish they did the LCD option in the XS sized phone,   Would be cheaper than OLED and phone ends up only slightly bigger than the 8.  Also,  seems to be concerns of OLED and eye strain.
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  • Reply 29 of 78
    MplsPmplsp Posts: 4,105member
    tzeshan said:
    I did a comparison at local Apple store. I would not buy the XR. It is bigger than XS but without many key features like dual camera, better resolution, more storage, better screen. lighter, etc. For $100 less, it is not a good buy. I like XR to be smaller than XS and sells for more than $100 than XS. Apple should use XR to expand market share. It will win buy with service revenues. 
    The Xr is $250 less than the Xs, not $100. Have you compared the screens side by side? Apple typically places them so you can’t do that at an Apple Store. I have and there is virtually no difference in the screens and the difference in resolution is not visible under normal viewing conditions. Beyond that, force touch and the telephoto lens are the only significant differences. 

    The Xr is a much better buy than the Xs for most people, IMO
    edited December 2018
    anantksundarammacpluspluslarz2112crosslad
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  • Reply 30 of 78
    jdgaz said:
    Until Tim Cook says something other than what he said on the earnings call I do not believe any of this baloney.
    I normally wouldn’t either but the fact that Apple is aggressively pushing their trade-in program and even increased trade-in values by $100 makes me think there might be something to these rumors. Nothing like this was on the front page of Apple’s website last year or any year before that.
    He's right, this is out of character. Sales gotta slow down some day.
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  • Reply 31 of 78
    tzeshantzeshan Posts: 2,351member
    MplsP said:
    tzeshan said:
    I did a comparison at local Apple store. I would not buy the XR. It is bigger than XS but without many key features like dual camera, better resolution, more storage, better screen. lighter, etc. For $100 less, it is not a good buy. I like XR to be smaller than XS and sells for more than $100 than XS. Apple should use XR to expand market share. It will win buy with service revenues. 
    The Xr is $250 less than the Xs, not $100. Have you compared the screens side by side? Apple typically places them so you can’t do that at an Apple Store. I have and there is virtually no difference in the screens and the difference in resolution is not visible under normal viewing conditions. Beyond that, force touch and the telephoto lens are the only significant differences. 

    The Xr is a much better buy than the Xs for most people, IMO
    I actually like XS smaller size and the dual camera. So to get a smaller phone with dual camera I have to pay $250 more. That is ridiculous. Again if Apple makes the XR smaller would it sell it for $300 less than the XS? 
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  • Reply 32 of 78
    Speaking from someone who is a bit of a technology nut, and from someone who always salivated at the newest iPhone release, the magic of smartphones is gone for me.  The feature set is largely fleshed out, and the phone has become a bit of commodity with all of the cheap competition out there.  At this point, the yearly nips and tucks aren't terribly compelling, and utility/usability are more important to me overall.... which explains my satisfaction with an older and totally competent iPhone SE (that can be easily wielded with one hand).  I suspect that the phenomenon that I'm facing is shared by many others.  It's not that I can't afford a new iterative phone - it's just that I don't see the need.
    DAalsethlarz2112AI_lias
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  • Reply 33 of 78
    Rayz2016rayz2016 Posts: 6,957member
    Rayz2016 said:
    JFC_PA said:
    He got the numbers wrong last year iirc. 

    He gets quite a few things wrong, so I have no idea why he's seen as some kind of prophet.


    The things Kuo is right on are things where he is basically stating the obvious. 
    For which he is handsomely paid.

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  • Reply 34 of 78
    tulkastulkas Posts: 3,757member
    tulkas said:
    Don't want to judge until Apple actually releases numbers, but this isn't hard to believe. Raising prices so much on the flagships like the X and XS can't help but turn some people off. It comes off as hubris and/or that they are trying to bring in LVMH type pricing for no other reason than they can.


    Cook defending the massive price hikes with "we want to have a price point for every one" was ridiculous. Subsequently releasing a cheaper, cut down version was only ever going to add insult to injury. 

    Apple maintained price discipline on iPhones for years and years. They were able to charge a premium price and yet not alienate their base. It seems they might have lost that discipline and have decided there are not boundaries. Slowing unit sales, in that light, would simply be expected. LVMH doesn't try to sell more than anyone else, just to make more per unit than anyone else. We'll have to wait to see how well the Ahrendts-effect works out going forward. 
    All groundless speculation, just like Kuo. You’ve assumed the worst with zero proof.
    Umm, what assumptions did I make? Have flagship prices increased significantly over the last couple years? Yes. Not an assumption, just a fact. Did Apple previously maintain tight price discipline? Yes, not an assumption, just a fact. Did their units sales increase every year for as long as they maintained that price discipline? Yes. Not an assumption, just a fact. Do higher prices turn some people off? Yes. Not an assumption, just a fact.

    Yes, it's speculation as to the cause of the drop, if there is a drop in unit sales. It's opinion.  
    edited December 2018
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  • Reply 35 of 78
    jdgaz said:
    Until Tim Cook says something other than what he said on the earnings call I do not believe any of this baloney.
    I normally wouldn’t either but the fact that Apple is aggressively pushing their trade-in program and even increased trade-in values by $100 makes me think there might be something to these rumors. Nothing like this was on the front page of Apple’s website last year or any year before that.

    Maybe they’re all getting the supply chain completely wrong. Wouldn’t be the firs time. Or maybe consumers are balking at the higher prices. A couple years ago the flagship iPhone started at $649. Now it’s $999. That’s not nothing. 
    Lets look at facts not rhetoric.
    Apple’s gross margins have been more or less the same since Steve’s time untill now.
     That says it all, period. ( public record… go check it )
    All this talk about ‘Apple is greedy this, greedy that, is just BS talk from the unreasonably disgruntled individuals.. and competition’s negative propaganda....and shorts....Thats all.
     Apple has been a higher priced brand and still is…. nothing has changed.

     Plus...Old commoditized electronics or in general products becomes cheaper in time.
    But Not New Cutting Edge Tehnology! The massive R&D expenses both in product and production equipment …and ramp up cost dont just evaporate in thin air.
     So lets stop this Apple bashing fad. Apple has phones from 449$ to 1500$.
     Pick the one that offers the proper value proposition for you.
     
    PS..
     iPhone 7 128, when it was first released sold for 749$ 2 years or so later it is selling for 449$..
     As you can see in black and white ..the old got cheaper .. by 40 %.
    edited December 2018
    brisance
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  • Reply 36 of 78
    Apple says the X[R] is their top seller, so I’m calling Ming a dingaling.

    Joz said most popular. That doesn’t really tell us much sales wise.
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  • Reply 37 of 78
    atomic101 said:
    Speaking from someone who is a bit of a technology nut, and from someone who always salivated at the newest iPhone release, the magic of smartphones is gone for me.  The feature set is largely fleshed out, and the phone has become a bit of commodity with all of the cheap competition out there.  At this point, the yearly nips and tucks aren't terribly compelling, and utility/usability are more important to me overall.... which explains my satisfaction with an older and totally competent iPhone SE (that can be easily wielded with one hand).  I suspect that the phenomenon that I'm facing is shared by many others.  It's not that I can't afford a new iterative phone - it's just that I don't see the need.
    This is about the most thoughtful post I’ve read so far. Thanks. 
    AI_lias
     1Like 0Dislikes 0Informatives
  • Reply 38 of 78
    jdgaz said:
    Until Tim Cook says something other than what he said on the earnings call I do not believe any of this baloney.
    I normally wouldn’t either but the fact that Apple is aggressively pushing their trade-in program and even increased trade-in values by $100 makes me think there might be something to these rumors. Nothing like this was on the front page of Apple’s website last year or any year before that.

    Maybe they’re all getting the supply chain completely wrong. Wouldn’t be the firs time. Or maybe consumers are balking at the higher prices. A couple years ago the flagship iPhone started at $649. Now it’s $999. That’s not nothing. 
    Lets look at facts not rhetoric.
    Apple’s gross margins have been more or less the same since Steve’s time untill now.
     That says it all, period. ( public record… go check it )
    All this talk about ‘Apple is greedy this, greedy that, is just BS talk from the unreasonably disgruntled individuals.. and competition’s negative propaganda....and shorts....Thats all.
     Apple has been a higher priced brand and still is…. nothing has changed.

     Plus...Old commoditized electronics or in general products becomes cheaper in time.
    But Not New Cutting Edge Tehnology! The massive R&D expenses both in product and production equipment …and ramp up cost dont just evaporate in thin air.
     So lets stop this Apple bashing fad. Apple has phones from 449$ to 1500$.
     Pick the one that offers the proper value proposition for you.
     
    PS..
     iPhone 7 128, when it was first released sold for 749$ 2 years or so later it is selling for 449$..
     As you can see in black and white ..the old got cheaper .. by 40 %.
    Finally, a fact based positive comment.  Excellent points. 
     0Likes 0Dislikes 0Informatives
  • Reply 39 of 78
    cincytee said:
    Maybe they’re all getting the supply chain completely wrong. Wouldn’t be the firs time. Or maybe consumers are balking at the higher prices. A couple years ago the flagship iPhone started at $649. Now it’s $999. That’s not nothing. 
    Or maybe people are OK with the iPhones they already have. The people with the crystal balls declare customer repudiation of new Apple products that don't sell like hotcakes, but I wonder if they simply underestimate how happy people already are with what are undeniably string products.
    Another reason why prices are increasing. If Apple can’t show sales growth at least they’ll show revenue growth.
     0Likes 0Dislikes 0Informatives
  • Reply 40 of 78
    It used to be very clear, if you want the best tech, you get a new iPhone. Then you get to choose a large and extra-large. Then if you wanted a smaller phone like the "old days", you get the SE. Now it is very confusing. If you want a new phone this year, you have to spend $1000 or more. So what is XR, a kind new tech phone that is $750, that is kind between large and extra-large. Apple for years gave people simple choices, but this year, very confusing, and it feels like being tricked into buying a 5c for $100 more.
    Also leaving more products in the lineup to hit a bunch of different price points make the lineups look messy. They finally cleaned up the iPad somewhat. Mac laptops and iPhones are still messy.
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