Apple may have trouble finding 5G modems for 2020 iPhones if it doesn't make its own

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  • Reply 21 of 42
    MplsPmplsp Posts: 4,114member
    What are the advantages to having a phone, any phone, with 5G - currently or even in 2020? I understand that downloads would be significantly faster in theory. Even with that I don't know many people that are downloading things that require significant bandwidth on a regular basis. And, of course, having a faster download speed doesn't mean that whatever server I'm connected to can upload fast enough for me to notice.
    What was the advantage of having all USB-C ports two years ago?
    Nothing. There's precious little use for USB-C now.

    Like others have said, there will be very limited 5G availability within the next 2 years much less use. Gatorguy is right, though - it's more about image and what people think they need rather than what they actually need. It's also hard for Apple to market itself as a 'premium, top of the line' phone if it's missing features perceived as critical. 

    gatorguy said:
    Latko said:
    Whatever the details, their multi-supplier strategy completely fell apart with making trouble with QualComm over a $30 license fee (that they already passed over to customers tenfold), making themselves depedendent on Intel and ...themselves
    I thought Apple had testified it was only $7 they ended up paying Qualcomm. Perhaps I'm mistaken

    EDIT: Nope, not mistaken. Apple themselves testified to this:
    https://www.cnet.com/news/apple-wanted-to-use-qualcomm-chips-in-its-newest-iphones-but-qualcomm-wouldnt-supply-jeff-williams-says-at-ftc/#ftag=COS-05-10aaa0j

    The section headed by "$7.50 PER DEVICE ROYALTY RATE" explains the details better. 
    $7.50 per device plus the cost of the chip itself (which is probably also inflated.) I don't know sales numbers, but as I recall,they are tens to perhaps 100M. That would mean half a billion dollars strictly in royalties that the chipmaker is presumably paying already. I can't blame Apple for fighting back.

    The unfortunate thing here is that QC is in a monopoly position with regards to 5G modems, meaning the extortion will continue.
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  • Reply 22 of 42
    gatorguygatorguy Posts: 24,740member
    MplsP said:
    What are the advantages to having a phone, any phone, with 5G - currently or even in 2020? I understand that downloads would be significantly faster in theory. Even with that I don't know many people that are downloading things that require significant bandwidth on a regular basis. And, of course, having a faster download speed doesn't mean that whatever server I'm connected to can upload fast enough for me to notice.
    What was the advantage of having all USB-C ports two years ago?
    Nothing. There's precious little use for USB-C now.

    Like others have said, there will be very limited 5G availability within the next 2 years much less use. Gatorguy is right, though - it's more about image and what people think they need rather than what they actually need. It's also hard for Apple to market itself as a 'premium, top of the line' phone if it's missing features perceived as critical. 

    gatorguy said:
    Latko said:
    Whatever the details, their multi-supplier strategy completely fell apart with making trouble with QualComm over a $30 license fee (that they already passed over to customers tenfold), making themselves depedendent on Intel and ...themselves
    I thought Apple had testified it was only $7 they ended up paying Qualcomm. Perhaps I'm mistaken

    EDIT: Nope, not mistaken. Apple themselves testified to this:
    https://www.cnet.com/news/apple-wanted-to-use-qualcomm-chips-in-its-newest-iphones-but-qualcomm-wouldnt-supply-jeff-williams-says-at-ftc/#ftag=COS-05-10aaa0j

    The section headed by "$7.50 PER DEVICE ROYALTY RATE" explains the details better. 
    $7.50 per device plus the cost of the chip itself (which is probably also inflated.) I don't know sales numbers, but as I recall,they are tens to perhaps 100M. That would mean half a billion dollars strictly in royalties that the chipmaker is presumably paying already. I can't blame Apple for fighting back.

    The unfortunate thing here is that QC is in a monopoly position with regards to 5G modems, meaning the extortion will continue.
    Less than 1% of the cost of an iPhone doesn't seem exorbitant.
    Of course Apple was in an ideal position compared to other licensees as Qualcomm offered them discounts and rebates that reduced their royalties to half or less of what some other OEM's were paying for licenses to the same IP packages. 
    muthuk_vanalingamlkrupp
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  • Reply 23 of 42
    tokyojimutokyojimu Posts: 537member
    gatorguy said:
    Heck, how many people really need a 100+GB internet connection. 
    Right. I switched from a 50 Mb/s cable connection at home to a 400 Mb/s metro Ethernet connection and didn’t notice any difference in daily use. 
    watto_cobra
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  • Reply 24 of 42
    M68000m68000 Posts: 940member
    We all know that wireless carriers can’t wait to run new advertising for 5G.  After all,  it’s a bigger number than 4G so therefore it “has to be” better right?  Since Android phone makers will be coming out with this it is really important for Apple to get this ASAP.   Whether or not it really will be much better in real world use is not important,  since 4G will still be in use too..  When’s Android markets it’s products it’s always about the hardware... hardware hardware hardware.  So that’s why Apple needs to get into this 5G game right away.
    watto_cobra
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  • Reply 25 of 42
    hammeroftruthhammeroftruth Posts: 1,395member
    Don’t be surprised if you see Apple make their own 5G modem. It’s not like they have been sitting around hoping Intel can get their stuff together or Qualcomm will lower their prices. 

    Sometimes Apple creates new products out of resentment like Maps, and even though that example isn’t a good one, don’t think they haven’t learned if they are going to take on a successful product, they better have a better one or its Maps all over again.  
    watto_cobra
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  • Reply 26 of 42
    Ciprolciprol Posts: 53member
    Huawei will be available to receive an urgent order from Apple... LOL! 5G is already being rolled out there in the Far East b/n China and Sth Korea, and here's Apple, the number one US tech company being stuck and unable to compete in this strategic commercial space. As for those who claims they don't need 5G or suggesting glitches, just classic sour grape mentality. Do these people know that this is the exact area that the US govt and experts are scared of, they know how critical 5G is to the future economic development of the world and a space that the US is struggling to keep up, hence part of Trump's trade war/Huawei ban. Here is a living example of how to turn America First to America Last!
    edited March 2019
    colorGeorgeBMac
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  • Reply 27 of 42
    croprcropr Posts: 1,146member
    I'm pretty sure a trillion dollar company can solve a problem that everyone other phone maker has or is solving.  This isn't rocket science.
    It is
    muthuk_vanalingam
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  • Reply 28 of 42
    avon b7avon b7 Posts: 8,274member
    color said:
    License 5G tech from Huawei.

    This isn't an option today as, AFAIK, Huawei doesn't licence its chipsets. This is also referenced in the article.

    I don't think they couldn't be persuaded though but there are politically sensitive issues that would make the idea a 'no go' in the US.

    It wouldn't make sense to use Balong 5000 outside the US either as Apple wants its phones to have similar performance everywhere and they would find themselves having to cap its performance. Apple also wants to have the modem on the SoC.

    Right now, the biggest issue for Apple is the speed of the 5G roll out and having competitors shipping devices - now - with the 5G buzzwords

    The faster the roll out, the more Apple will notice impact of not having a 5G phone.
    edited March 2019
    muthuk_vanalingam
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  • Reply 29 of 42
    Latkolatko Posts: 398member
    lkrupp said:
    wood1208 said:
    Everyone outside of Apple take some information from here and there, some guessing and make opinion to write like they know all. Apple knows how to tackle 5G modem issue and will release 5G iPhones when the time is right for enough 5G coverage is in place to make it worthwhile. Moreover, why build 5G phones that early with higher cost when people complaining $1000 price point whether it is Apple or Samsiung phones.
    Well, yes, of course. But it’s better journalistic theatre to create tension, conflict, possibility of failure, nail biting unknowns. Will Apple FAIL???????????? Remember it’s all about you and me viewing the page and possibly clicking on an ad.
    You certainly don’t understand a molecule of long-term, mass deployment risks in high-tech. Let alone the complexity of (modem-) chips
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  • Reply 30 of 42
    Latkolatko Posts: 398member

    What are the advantages to having a phone, any phone, with 5G - currently or even in 2020? I understand that downloads would be significantly faster in theory. Even with that I don't know many people that are downloading things that require significant bandwidth on a regular basis. And, of course, having a faster download speed doesn't mean that whatever server I'm connected to can upload fast enough for me to notice.
    This industry is alive because of technology-push: high-tech that actually doesn’t fulfill its importance until clever marketing and new appliances make the difference. It’s not you, but Apple who will have a big issue when they are amongst the few 5G have-nots in 2020.
    Sadly, it’s aging/stagnant Board of pensionado’s is playing the “never-mind” game as they can do because of customers like you.
    edited March 2019
    muthuk_vanalingam
     1Like 0Dislikes 0Informatives
  • Reply 31 of 42
    Latko said:

    What are the advantages to having a phone, any phone, with 5G - currently or even in 2020? I understand that downloads would be significantly faster in theory. Even with that I don't know many people that are downloading things that require significant bandwidth on a regular basis. And, of course, having a faster download speed doesn't mean that whatever server I'm connected to can upload fast enough for me to notice.
    This industry is alive because of technology-push: high-tech that actually doesn’t fulfill its importance until clever marketing and new appliances make the difference. It’s not you, but Apple who will have a big issue when they are amongst the few 5G have-nots in 2020.
    Sadly, it’s aging/stagnant Board of pensionado’s is playing the “never-mind” game as they can do because of customers like you.
    You didn’t answer the question. Unless 5G is required because of “clever marketing”, which I don’t understand. 
    watto_cobra
     1Like 0Dislikes 0Informatives
  • Reply 32 of 42
    MplsPmplsp Posts: 4,114member
    gatorguy said:
    MplsP said:
    What are the advantages to having a phone, any phone, with 5G - currently or even in 2020? I understand that downloads would be significantly faster in theory. Even with that I don't know many people that are downloading things that require significant bandwidth on a regular basis. And, of course, having a faster download speed doesn't mean that whatever server I'm connected to can upload fast enough for me to notice.
    What was the advantage of having all USB-C ports two years ago?
    Nothing. There's precious little use for USB-C now.

    Like others have said, there will be very limited 5G availability within the next 2 years much less use. Gatorguy is right, though - it's more about image and what people think they need rather than what they actually need. It's also hard for Apple to market itself as a 'premium, top of the line' phone if it's missing features perceived as critical. 

    gatorguy said:
    Latko said:
    Whatever the details, their multi-supplier strategy completely fell apart with making trouble with QualComm over a $30 license fee (that they already passed over to customers tenfold), making themselves depedendent on Intel and ...themselves
    I thought Apple had testified it was only $7 they ended up paying Qualcomm. Perhaps I'm mistaken

    EDIT: Nope, not mistaken. Apple themselves testified to this:
    https://www.cnet.com/news/apple-wanted-to-use-qualcomm-chips-in-its-newest-iphones-but-qualcomm-wouldnt-supply-jeff-williams-says-at-ftc/#ftag=COS-05-10aaa0j

    The section headed by "$7.50 PER DEVICE ROYALTY RATE" explains the details better. 
    $7.50 per device plus the cost of the chip itself (which is probably also inflated.) I don't know sales numbers, but as I recall,they are tens to perhaps 100M. That would mean half a billion dollars strictly in royalties that the chipmaker is presumably paying already. I can't blame Apple for fighting back.

    The unfortunate thing here is that QC is in a monopoly position with regards to 5G modems, meaning the extortion will continue.
    Less than 1% of the cost of an iPhone doesn't seem exorbitant.
    Of course Apple was in an ideal position compared to other licensees as Qualcomm offered them discounts and rebates that reduced their royalties to half or less of what some other OEM's were paying for licenses to the same IP packages. 
    Except when compared with standard licensing terms. We bought a house built by Lennar who put a Nexia z-wave system in. QC’s arrangement is something akin to Lennar buying the controller, then having Nexia charge them 1% of the price of the house on top of that after they had paid for the controller. 

    You can try to obscure it with statistics, but we’re talking about hundreds of millions of dollars. Should any company willingly give up that much money ‘just because they make a lot more?’ 
    watto_cobra
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  • Reply 33 of 42
    GeorgeBMacgeorgebmac Posts: 11,421member
    Another option for Apple to produce a 5G phone on a timely basis is Huawei, the world leader in 5G.   With a 25,000 strong R&D staff backed by a $15-$20Billion a year R&D budget they can out-tech just about any tech company in the world.   Their owner & founder says they can devote so much to R&D because they can reinvest their profits in their business rather than giving it away to shareholders.  But, it would make Trump pull his hair out (which might be a side benefit) -- but it would also let Apple produce a quality 5G phone rather than falling behind.

    Its so silly to let politics restrict technological progress.
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  • Reply 34 of 42
    gatorguy said:
    What are the advantages to having a phone, any phone, with 5G - currently or even in 2020? I understand that downloads would be significantly faster in theory. Even with that I don't know many people that are downloading things that require significant bandwidth on a regular basis. And, of course, having a faster download speed doesn't mean that whatever server I'm connected to can upload fast enough for me to notice.
    You're correct, there might be no real-world benefit for most folks. Heck, how many people really need a 100+GB internet connection.

    What matters to the companies selling this stuff is that you THINK there's benefits, thus you buy it. Apple will want you to think there's benefits too so you buy a new iPhone,  but until they offer it expect to see a plethora of comments explaining (IMHO accurately for the most part) why there aren't any. 
    Yes, this is the sixth scenario, which neither AI nor the original article have addressed, i.e. that 5G won't matter in the slightest for most people for at least three or four years, so Apple won't waste premature time or money on it.
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  • Reply 35 of 42
    gatorguygatorguy Posts: 24,740member
    gatorguy said:
    What are the advantages to having a phone, any phone, with 5G - currently or even in 2020? I understand that downloads would be significantly faster in theory. Even with that I don't know many people that are downloading things that require significant bandwidth on a regular basis. And, of course, having a faster download speed doesn't mean that whatever server I'm connected to can upload fast enough for me to notice.
    You're correct, there might be no real-world benefit for most folks. Heck, how many people really need a 100+GB internet connection.

    What matters to the companies selling this stuff is that you THINK there's benefits, thus you buy it. Apple will want you to think there's benefits too so you buy a new iPhone,  but until they offer it expect to see a plethora of comments explaining (IMHO accurately for the most part) why there aren't any. 
    Yes, this is the sixth scenario, which neither AI nor the original article have addressed, i.e. that 5G won't matter in the slightest for most people for at least three or four years, so Apple won't waste premature time or money on it.
    IMHO 5G will matter a LOT to Apple as soon as they have the hardware and marketing in place to profit from it, even if the value to the buyer is still iffy. Apple's goal ain't protecting you from paying too much for a not-yet-mature tech that you don't need. They'll profit from selling it to you as soon as it makes business sense for them with all the needed chips/hardware in place even if the tech roll-out itself is still immature and you the buyer isn't realizing the benefits. As long as you believe you need it is good enough. 
    edited March 2019
    GeorgeBMac
     1Like 0Dislikes 0Informatives
  • Reply 36 of 42
    gatorguy said:
    gatorguy said:
    What are the advantages to having a phone, any phone, with 5G - currently or even in 2020? I understand that downloads would be significantly faster in theory. Even with that I don't know many people that are downloading things that require significant bandwidth on a regular basis. And, of course, having a faster download speed doesn't mean that whatever server I'm connected to can upload fast enough for me to notice.
    You're correct, there might be no real-world benefit for most folks. Heck, how many people really need a 100+GB internet connection.

    What matters to the companies selling this stuff is that you THINK there's benefits, thus you buy it. Apple will want you to think there's benefits too so you buy a new iPhone,  but until they offer it expect to see a plethora of comments explaining (IMHO accurately for the most part) why there aren't any. 
    Yes, this is the sixth scenario, which neither AI nor the original article have addressed, i.e. that 5G won't matter in the slightest for most people for at least three or four years, so Apple won't waste premature time or money on it.
    IMHO 5G will matter a LOT to Apple as soon as they have the hardware and marketing in place to profit from it, even if the value to the buyer is still iffy. Apple's goal ain't protecting you from paying too much for a not-yet-mature tech that you don't need. They'll profit from selling it to you as soon as it makes business sense for them with all the needed chips/hardware in place even if the tech roll-out itself is still immature and you the buyer isn't realizing the benefits. As long as you believe you need it is good enough. 
    Not what I said.

    Apple didn't support 4G for quite a while after it was available.  I don't see them doing much different with 5G, especially given the dearth of compatible modems.
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  • Reply 37 of 42
    gatorguygatorguy Posts: 24,740member
    gatorguy said:
    gatorguy said:
    What are the advantages to having a phone, any phone, with 5G - currently or even in 2020? I understand that downloads would be significantly faster in theory. Even with that I don't know many people that are downloading things that require significant bandwidth on a regular basis. And, of course, having a faster download speed doesn't mean that whatever server I'm connected to can upload fast enough for me to notice.
    You're correct, there might be no real-world benefit for most folks. Heck, how many people really need a 100+GB internet connection.

    What matters to the companies selling this stuff is that you THINK there's benefits, thus you buy it. Apple will want you to think there's benefits too so you buy a new iPhone,  but until they offer it expect to see a plethora of comments explaining (IMHO accurately for the most part) why there aren't any. 
    Yes, this is the sixth scenario, which neither AI nor the original article have addressed, i.e. that 5G won't matter in the slightest for most people for at least three or four years, so Apple won't waste premature time or money on it.
    IMHO 5G will matter a LOT to Apple as soon as they have the hardware and marketing in place to profit from it, even if the value to the buyer is still iffy. Apple's goal ain't protecting you from paying too much for a not-yet-mature tech that you don't need. They'll profit from selling it to you as soon as it makes business sense for them with all the needed chips/hardware in place even if the tech roll-out itself is still immature and you the buyer isn't realizing the benefits. As long as you believe you need it is good enough. 
    Not what I said.

    Apple didn't support 4G for quite a while after it was available.  I don't see them doing much different with 5G, especially given the dearth of compatible modems.
    Apple wouldn't be wasting time or money on it if there's good profit to be made. The hardware is the holdup and not the immaturity of the tech and it's value IMHO. 
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  • Reply 38 of 42
    avon b7avon b7 Posts: 8,274member
    color said:
    avon b7 said:
    color said:
    License 5G tech from Huawei.

    This isn't an option today as, AFAIK, Huawei doesn't licence its chipsets. This is also referenced in the article.

    I don't think they couldn't be persuaded though but there are politically sensitive issues that would make the idea a 'no go' in the US.

    It wouldn't make sense to use Balong 5000 outside the US either as Apple wants its phones to have similar performance everywhere and they would find themselves having to cap its performance. Apple also wants to have the modem on the SoC.

    Right now, the biggest issue for Apple is the speed of the 5G roll out and having competitors shipping devices - now - with the 5G buzzwords

    The faster the roll out, the more Apple will notice impact of not having a 5G phone.
    Huawei 5G tech is going to get installed worldwide. See all the countries refusing to go along with the USA mini-boycott of Huawei. Apple already has license agreements with Huawei, so adding on its 5G tech solves a number of problems:
    it allows Apple to build 5G into SOC
    it promotes the more advanced Huawei 5G tech,
    it “solves” the so-called “security” problem of using Huawei chips while Huawei gets licensing revenue.


    It is reported that Apple licences lots of patents from Huawei but I am not aware of them  licencing any chipsets to third parties with the exception of those destined for imaging (cameras, TVs etc).

    I think that Apple would like to have a modem on the SoC (just like Huawei does with the Kirin 980) for example because of the advantages involved. The Kirin 980 recently won an award for its LTE support.

    The problem is that right now the Balong 5000 isn't on the Kirin 980 although rumours swirl about a Kirin 990 that might better accommodate Balong 5000.

    When Huawei announced the Ascend line of chipsets they said they were not competing with intel or Qualcomm as their chips would not be available to hardware makers. I believe the same approach is applicable to Huawei modems.
    GeorgeBMac
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  • Reply 39 of 42
    gatorguygatorguy Posts: 24,740member
    gatorguy said:
    gatorguy said:
    What are the advantages to having a phone, any phone, with 5G - currently or even in 2020? I understand that downloads would be significantly faster in theory. Even with that I don't know many people that are downloading things that require significant bandwidth on a regular basis. And, of course, having a faster download speed doesn't mean that whatever server I'm connected to can upload fast enough for me to notice.
    You're correct, there might be no real-world benefit for most folks. Heck, how many people really need a 100+GB internet connection.

    What matters to the companies selling this stuff is that you THINK there's benefits, thus you buy it. Apple will want you to think there's benefits too so you buy a new iPhone,  but until they offer it expect to see a plethora of comments explaining (IMHO accurately for the most part) why there aren't any. 
    Yes, this is the sixth scenario, which neither AI nor the original article have addressed, i.e. that 5G won't matter in the slightest for most people for at least three or four years, so Apple won't waste premature time or money on it.
    IMHO 5G will matter a LOT to Apple as soon as they have the hardware and marketing in place to profit from it, even if the value to the buyer is still iffy. Apple's goal ain't protecting you from paying too much for a not-yet-mature tech that you don't need. They'll profit from selling it to you as soon as it makes business sense for them with all the needed chips/hardware in place even if the tech roll-out itself is still immature and you the buyer isn't realizing the benefits. As long as you believe you need it is good enough. 
    Not what I said.

    Apple didn't support 4G for quite a while after it was available.  I don't see them doing much different with 5G, especially given the dearth of compatible modems.
    Apple wouldn't be wasting time or money on it if there's good profit to be made. The hardware is the holdup and not the immaturity of the tech and it's value IMHO. 
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  • Reply 40 of 42
    MplsPmplsp Posts: 4,114member
    gatorguy said:
    gatorguy said:
    gatorguy said:
    What are the advantages to having a phone, any phone, with 5G - currently or even in 2020? I understand that downloads would be significantly faster in theory. Even with that I don't know many people that are downloading things that require significant bandwidth on a regular basis. And, of course, having a faster download speed doesn't mean that whatever server I'm connected to can upload fast enough for me to notice.
    You're correct, there might be no real-world benefit for most folks. Heck, how many people really need a 100+GB internet connection.

    What matters to the companies selling this stuff is that you THINK there's benefits, thus you buy it. Apple will want you to think there's benefits too so you buy a new iPhone,  but until they offer it expect to see a plethora of comments explaining (IMHO accurately for the most part) why there aren't any. 
    Yes, this is the sixth scenario, which neither AI nor the original article have addressed, i.e. that 5G won't matter in the slightest for most people for at least three or four years, so Apple won't waste premature time or money on it.
    IMHO 5G will matter a LOT to Apple as soon as they have the hardware and marketing in place to profit from it, even if the value to the buyer is still iffy. Apple's goal ain't protecting you from paying too much for a not-yet-mature tech that you don't need. They'll profit from selling it to you as soon as it makes business sense for them with all the needed chips/hardware in place even if the tech roll-out itself is still immature and you the buyer isn't realizing the benefits. As long as you believe you need it is good enough. 
    Not what I said.

    Apple didn't support 4G for quite a while after it was available.  I don't see them doing much different with 5G, especially given the dearth of compatible modems.
    Apple wouldn't be wasting time or money on it if there's good profit to be made. The hardware is the holdup and not the immaturity of the tech and it's value IMHO. 
    It's a bit of a catch-22. There's no way for the tech to be functional and meet its potential if the hardware isn't there to support it, but this is also a good reason to hold off - if the hardware isn't mature then why rush?
     0Likes 0Dislikes 0Informatives
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