Generally speaking, electric vehicles and autonomous vehicles seem to get intermixed in reporting and conversations. Yet they are totally different.
For myself, I would predict:
- Electric vehicles will give way to plug in hybrids of some sort (even if they are fuel cell hybrids). And that will last till battery technology and recharging stations and technology have advanced considerably.
- Autonomous vehicle technology will slowly infiltrate into regular cars and road infrastructure until self-driving and regular cars become less and less distinct enities. Europe is already considering regulations to automatically govern the sped of all automobiles using GPS and local road signals. That could go from regulating top speed to the speed limit to automatically slowing cars as they approach a construction zone. That is the start....
I don’t know. I see it the other way around. When auto batteries could only give 80 miles to the charge, hybrids were the way to go. But battery technology advances about 5% a year. We’ve seen that. There are now electric cars that can go a “true” 225 miles on a charge. That is, with moderate use of heat or air. Without heat or air, 300 miles, and a slight bit more is happening with a few models.
that’s beginning to compare favorably with gas.
but the biggest problem relates to charge times and number of stations. While there are about 160,000 gas stations in the USA and Canada, there are only 40,000 charging stations. But, the number of gas stations has been very slowly declining, while charging station installs have been surging. Estimates I’ve seen have gas stations at slightly below 150,000 in five years, with charging stations reaching close to 100,000. Some gas station chains are adding charge stations.
we’re also seeing hotels and resorts adding charging stations to their own lots, for guests, and even some restaurants are as well. Some parking lots now have them as well, and, of course, if you own a home, you can install one. Apartment buildings are beginning to put them in too.
And as charging times continue to get shorter, it will be less of a problem, from the travel time aspect.
the autonomous portion is more difficult. Some think it will be as far away as 2030 before we see true autonomous vehicles on the road as a normal thing. Some think, 2025, and some think, never.
I don’t think I’ve ever seen what it costs to charge a Tesla vehicle at a charging station. Any ideas?
Tesla found out that actually building thousands of cars is real difficult, and I doubt the expertise Apple has gained in producing iPhones will be at all transferable to something as big & complicated as a car. On the other hand I would expect the user interface on an iCar to be much better than what Tesla has done. I have a Tesla & love driving it but the human/machine interface needs a lot of refinement.
Tesla has had a problem because, in certain respects, Musk is an idiot. It’s isn't that difficult to produce a lot of cars (insofar as manufacturing any large, complex product is, which is done everywhere). It’s difficult in ramping up to build a lot of cars in the time he said they would do it, as EVERYONE in the industry told him. He likes to promise things he can’t deliver.
SpaceX seems to have been a far better run project.
Generally speaking, electric vehicles and autonomous vehicles seem to get intermixed in reporting and conversations. Yet they are totally different.
For myself, I would predict:
- Electric vehicles will give way to plug in hybrids of some sort (even if they are fuel cell hybrids). And that will last till battery technology and recharging stations and technology have advanced considerably.
- Autonomous vehicle technology will slowly infiltrate into regular cars and road infrastructure until self-driving and regular cars become less and less distinct enities. Europe is already considering regulations to automatically govern the sped of all automobiles using GPS and local road signals. That could go from regulating top speed to the speed limit to automatically slowing cars as they approach a construction zone. That is the start....
I don’t know. I see it the other way around. When auto batteries could only give 80 miles to the charge, hybrids were the way to go. But battery technology advances about 5% a year. We’ve seen that. There are now electric cars that can go a “true” 225 miles on a charge. That is, with moderate use of heat or air. Without heat or air, 300 miles, and a slight bit more is happening with a few models.
that’s beginning to compare favorably with gas.
but the biggest problem relates to charge times and number of stations. While there are about 160,000 gas stations in the USA and Canada, there are only 40,000 charging stations. But, the number of gas stations has been very slowly declining, while charging station installs have been surging. Estimates I’ve seen have gas stations at slightly below 150,000 in five years, with charging stations reaching close to 100,000. Some gas station chains are adding charge stations.
we’re also seeing hotels and resorts adding charging stations to their own lots, for guests, and even some restaurants are as well. Some parking lots now have them as well, and, of course, if you own a home, you can install one. Apartment buildings are beginning to put them in too.
And as charging times continue to get shorter, it will be less of a problem, from the travel time aspect.
the autonomous portion is more difficult. Some think it will be as far away as 2030 before we see true autonomous vehicles on the road as a normal thing. Some think, 2025, and some think, never.
I don’t think I’ve ever seen what it costs to charge a Tesla vehicle at a charging station. Any ideas?
It’s been free for their cars. Then they started charging for others, like the 3. I don’t know what it is now. But it’s assumed that it costs less than the amount of gas needed for the same mileage.
Tesla found out that actually building thousands of cars is real difficult, and I doubt the expertise Apple has gained in producing iPhones will be at all transferable to something as big & complicated as a car. On the other hand I would expect the user interface on an iCar to be much better than what Tesla has done. I have a Tesla & love driving it but the human/machine interface needs a lot of refinement.
Tesla has had a problem because, in certain respects, Musk is an idiot. It’s isn't that difficult to produce a lot of cars (insofar as manufacturing any large, complex product is, which is done everywhere). It’s difficult in ramping up to build a lot of cars in the time he said they would do it, as EVERYONE in the industry told him. He likes to promise things he can’t deliver.
SpaceX seems to have been a far better run project.
I will reiterate what I, and a few other insightful commentators, have predicted all along.
Apple will not sell a car. Instead, Apple will sell transportation as a service. Their transportation service will utilize their own fleet of self-driving electric vehicles.
A few years ago, people often reacted to this prediction by saying that Apple makes money by selling products to consumers, not by selling services. I think it's pretty clear now how insightful that line of reasoning wasn't. Apple execs are beating the service drum pretty hard these days. The idea of Apple preferring to sell a subscription service rather than hardware is not as alien now.
Furthermore, I think that as we discover how overly optimistic the Waymo/Tesla-fueled predictions were about the timeline for achieving 'full autonomy,' it becomes clear that selling a self-driving car to consumers will not be feasible for the foreseeable future.
What is likely to be feasible is a vehicle that is very adept at operating within a clearly defined space. Not just geo-fenced, but restricted to specific routes that it can handle.
I can imagine a service that mixes human-driven and autonomous vehicles, depending on the route requested.
Aaaaaand soooo booooring. People will fall asleep before ordering a seat on an Apple bus (Apple is pretty good at busses by the way, so this might be a good idea after all...). It seems, by the way, that most Apple services will fall flat on its face.
Hater nonsense. So what if ride sharing is boring — services exist to make money, not protect you from life’s doldrums while surfing rumor sites.
Most services will fail? What on earth are you talking about? So far Apple Music and iCloud storage services are doing great. You’re high.
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