Huawei will consume Apple's lost Chinese smartphone market share, says JP Morgan
While Huawei is going to take a giant hit worldwide from US sanctions, Apple in China will likely see a drop in shipments for 2019, resulting in sales less than half the levels seen at its peak in 2015, says JP Morgan.

Throughout May, Huawei has been hit by a number of attacks from the U.S. government, including a sales ban that prevents it from acquiring technology from US companies without governmental permission, as well as one preventing U.S. firms from using Huawei's equipment. In a note to investors from JP Morgan seen by AppleInsider, analysts are trying to work out how this will impact the Chinese tech company in the rest of the smartphone market, as well as competitors working within China.
Citing supply chain issues where Huawei is seeing shortages in some "insignificant components," JP Morgan suggests Huawei has between 6 and 12 months of stock on hand to continue building its devices, but even that has its limitations.
There is also the issue of Huawei's global sales being affected by the U.S. ban, as it can affect elements like the availability of Google Mobile Services, a key selling point for Android devices. JP Morgan's shipment estimates were previously 120 million units for China and 130 million for the international market in 2019, but now they have been reconfigured to slip internationally to 90 million while domestic support for the company could raise shipments to 130 million.
In effect, this represents a downward estimate from 250 million units shipped in 2019 to 220 million units.
As the dominant Chinese smartphone brand internationally, JP Morgan suggests other brands could stand to benefit, but it is unclear which out of Oppo, Vivo, or Xiaomi could gain the most. Domestically, Huawei is tipped to benefit from consumer sentiment to gain market share from Apple and other international brands, but it may also affect its local competition as well.

JP Morgan's chart based on its own estimates ad IDC data for Apple and Huawei regional shipments
Based on IDC and JP Morgan estimates, shipments for Apple in China are expected to reach 27.8 million units for 2019, down from the 36.3 million in 2018 and less than half the 58.4 million units shipped in the market in 2015. Meanwhile, Huawei's shipments for China are expected to grow to 110.1 million units in 2019, a 5 million unit year-on-year increase for the company.
JP Morgan did not pass comment in the note as to why Apple will see lower shipments in 2019, but other analysts and reports have suggested Chinese consumers and businesses may push to buy Huawei devices instead of iPhones, as a way to support the company.
The prospect of a retaliatory ban on Apple products by the Chinese government is also a possibility, one which would certainly dent Apple's sales in the region, and could cost the company up to 29 percent of its revenue if such activity took place.
Huawei founder and CEO Ren Zhengei has publicly opposed the idea of a Chinese retaliatory ban on Apple.

Throughout May, Huawei has been hit by a number of attacks from the U.S. government, including a sales ban that prevents it from acquiring technology from US companies without governmental permission, as well as one preventing U.S. firms from using Huawei's equipment. In a note to investors from JP Morgan seen by AppleInsider, analysts are trying to work out how this will impact the Chinese tech company in the rest of the smartphone market, as well as competitors working within China.
Citing supply chain issues where Huawei is seeing shortages in some "insignificant components," JP Morgan suggests Huawei has between 6 and 12 months of stock on hand to continue building its devices, but even that has its limitations.
There is also the issue of Huawei's global sales being affected by the U.S. ban, as it can affect elements like the availability of Google Mobile Services, a key selling point for Android devices. JP Morgan's shipment estimates were previously 120 million units for China and 130 million for the international market in 2019, but now they have been reconfigured to slip internationally to 90 million while domestic support for the company could raise shipments to 130 million.
In effect, this represents a downward estimate from 250 million units shipped in 2019 to 220 million units.
As the dominant Chinese smartphone brand internationally, JP Morgan suggests other brands could stand to benefit, but it is unclear which out of Oppo, Vivo, or Xiaomi could gain the most. Domestically, Huawei is tipped to benefit from consumer sentiment to gain market share from Apple and other international brands, but it may also affect its local competition as well.

JP Morgan's chart based on its own estimates ad IDC data for Apple and Huawei regional shipments
Based on IDC and JP Morgan estimates, shipments for Apple in China are expected to reach 27.8 million units for 2019, down from the 36.3 million in 2018 and less than half the 58.4 million units shipped in the market in 2015. Meanwhile, Huawei's shipments for China are expected to grow to 110.1 million units in 2019, a 5 million unit year-on-year increase for the company.
JP Morgan did not pass comment in the note as to why Apple will see lower shipments in 2019, but other analysts and reports have suggested Chinese consumers and businesses may push to buy Huawei devices instead of iPhones, as a way to support the company.
The prospect of a retaliatory ban on Apple products by the Chinese government is also a possibility, one which would certainly dent Apple's sales in the region, and could cost the company up to 29 percent of its revenue if such activity took place.
Huawei founder and CEO Ren Zhengei has publicly opposed the idea of a Chinese retaliatory ban on Apple.
Comments
ZTE and other Chinese brands that are NOT banned, they could gain more sales and take some of Apple's.
Wouldn't it make more sense for the decisions to be taken by them instead of consumers?
That aside, the realities are far more complex than your two line conclusion.
Do you think the US has not stolen information from Huawei?
We need to be realistic and a little more understanding of global trade. The US has been fine doing business with China for years. It is only now (with China actually taking the lead in key areas) that Trump has hit the panic button and with it he has severely disrupted world trade.
Perhaps he should sign an executive order on national security grounds, forcing US companies to pull out of China?
Sure sounds like you now accept that Huawei has stolen IP in the past, and there is certainly a lot of data to that effect. Funny how you throw a canard about the U.S. stealing from Huawei without any evidence at all.
That's another low bar for you.
I would agree that the U.S. has spied on Huawei, but stolen IP? Not seeing that.
https://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2014/03/nsa_hacks_huawe.html
Of course, Snowden and Huawei themselves have since mentioned illicit US government activity.
Did the U.S. steal any Huawei IP?
No.
So they just assert that it will?
https://www.wsj.com/articles/huaweis-yearslong-rise-is-littered-with-accusations-of-theft-and-dubious-ethics-11558756858
Your boy steals.
But from the link:
"getting copies of the company's products' source code"
IP you say?
Also from the linked article:
"The Huawei revelations are devastating rebuttals to hypocritical U.S. complaints about Chinese penetration of U.S. networks, and also make USG protestations about not stealing intellectual property to help U.S. firms' competitiveness seem like the self-serving hairsplitting that it is. (I have elaborated on these points many times and will not repeat them here.) "The irony is that exactly what they are doing to us is what they have always charged that the Chinese are doing through us," says a Huawei Executive."
What we see here is "we can spy on you and that's ok". On top of that though we have: "although we have the right to do it - you don't, and although we spent the best part of a decade trying to find evidence to support our national security accusations against Huawei but came up largely empty handed (in spite of the hacked info!), couldn't convince our allies to ban them without said evidence and even put US bans in place, we still want to do everything possible to make sure the company doesn't progress further and extend its tech lead and will order foreign companies to obey us to reach our goals."
The US says Huawei is 'dangerous'. No sir. It is the US government that is dangerous.
China has just complained to the WTO about Trump's actions. It also brought up the issue of Australia earlier on:
https://news.cgtn.com/news/3d3d414d78517a4d34457a6333566d54/index.html
Your link;
"ABOUT US - China Global Television Network
CGTN, See the difference
Who we are
China Global Television Network, or CGTN, is an international media organization launched by CCTV on December 31, 2016. It is now part of China's predominant radio and television broadcaster, China Media Group, which has incorporated CCTV, CNR and CRI since March 2018.
As a multi-language and multi-platform media organization, CGTN operates in television and online. It also incorporates a video news agency CCTV+.
Headquartered in Beijing, CGTN has an international team of professionals based around the world with production centers located in Nairobi, Washington D.C. and London.
CGTN's six TV channels – English, Spanish, French, Arabic, Russian and Documentary – are available in more than 170 countries and regions worldwide.
CGTN, a pioneer of media convergence in China, also delivers content through digital platforms. CGTN Digital is accessible via CGTN.com, CGTN mobile applications, YouTube, Facebook, Twitter, Weibo and other social media platforms, with over 150 million followers across the globe.
The CGTN media convergence center endeavors to create a world-leading news content brand, integrating various media assets, technologies and management resources. From multimedia journalism to news cloud sharing, from tailored production to multiple delivery channels, it's designed to maximize the efficiency of content production.
Our mission
CGTN seeks to cover China and the world, reporting the news from a global perspective. It seeks to offer a distinctive alternative to the international information flow. CGTN aims to differentiate itself from other media organizations by providing more balanced reporting. The platforms focus on nations, regions, and stories that are often underreported by other international media."
You keep linking to PRC sources. Why is that?
here'a an audio link specifically about the WTO from an Australian perspective;
https://www.abc.net.au/radio/programs/am/china-brings-huawei-complaint-to-wto-australia-stands-by-ban/11002700
Basically, the WTO has a very broad National Security Exception, and that is what Australia, and the others that have or will ban Huawei, will use.
Ban Huawei, Trump needs better people around.
You point to somewhere and when you are shown there is really nothing there, you immediately leave that point and simply point somewhere else!
First you question the availability of links to support what I said - in spite of me having placed innumerable links on the subject (and directed at you specifically!) in other threads on the subject. I indulged you with a link.
Then you try to poo poo it while simultaneously ignoring the main opinion piece of the link which was also relevant. Not only that but you didn't read it properly. This last point wouldn't be an issue if you didn't have the habit of of telling other people their reading comprehension is terrible (even when it is not true). Anyway the root reason for your subsequent post was to simply point somewhere else:
"Did the U.S steal any Huawei IP? No"
I asked you how you could make that affirmation but, yes, you guessed it, you didn't have an answer for that and simply pointed somewhere else! The news organisation that provided the piece I linked too.
Well, let's forget you not having an answer for your claim and focus on the claim itself. Why? Because it was dealt with in my original link and I even brought that to your attention (I quoted the text in the link). However, once again you simply dropped that line and pointed somewhere else!
Ok, now we reach your last post with a lot of copy pasting. All irrelevant.
First, you should be getting your news from a wide array of sources which necessarily include biased sources, propaganda machines or the horse's mouth (Trump tweets for example). Then it is up to you to make sense of what you have. It is also important to see who actually wrote a particular piece (independently of the vehicle that delivered it).
In this particular case, in your haste to invalidate the the vehicle in question, you completely forgot who actually wrote it!
Let's recap. We have the backdrop of protectionist measures by the U.S government against China/Huawei. We have U.S pressure on Five Eyes members of which Australia is a member and the resulting ban of Huawei in some communications areas in Australia. The ban is being questioned on legal grounds.
The piece I linked to was not penned by the CGTN. It was penned by Zhou Weihuan.
So, who is he?
Let me bring you up to speed by copy/pasting the very first paragraph of the piece:
Editor's note: Zhou Weihuan is a senior lecturer and member of the Herbert Smith Freehills China International Business and Economic Law (CIBEL) Centre of the Faculty of Law at the University of New South Wales (UNSW Sydney) in Australia, and Kong Qingjiang is the dean of the School of International Law at China University of Political Science and Law. The article reflects the authors' opinion, and not necessarily the views of CGTN.
What were you saying about poor reading comprehension? Or didn't you bother to read it?
You didn't even bother to challenge the content of the piece.
The only question that remains is where you will point to next.
I hope it isn't the legal side of things because when I mentioned Huawei was considering legal action against the U.S you jumped on that with your 'absolute' claims on the subject. I countered that if they did make moves in the legal arena then Huawei wouldn't agree with you. So, what happened last night? Huawei filed for Summary Judgement on recent events.
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-48441814
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/29/business/huawei-us-lawsuit.html
I hope you find those news sources to be valid. ;-)
You obviously don't consider that CCTV, et al, are propaganda arms of the CCP and Chinese Government, but others do see that as propaganda.
For the record, Australia, and New Zealand were way ahead of the U.S. in "banning" Huawei, and I would include the Czechs as well in that group.
Also, National Intelligence Gathering, ie , spying, is distinct from illegal acquisition of IP, and we know that Huawei, and China, are guilty of the latter, and I posted links to that document that. You have been unable to demonstrate that the U.S. has acquired IP illegally from Huawei.
I'll post this Reuters link, again;
https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/huawei-usa-campaign/
"CANBERRA
In early 2018, in a complex of low-rise buildings in the Australian capital, a team of government hackers was engaging in a destructive digital war game.
The operatives – agents of the Australian Signals Directorate, the nation’s top-secret eavesdropping agency – had been given a challenge. With all the offensive cyber tools at their disposal, what harm could they inflict if they had access to equipment installed in the 5G network, the next-generation mobile communications technology, of a target nation?
What the team found, say current and former government officials, was sobering for Australian security and political leaders: The offensive potential of 5G was so great that if Australia were on the receiving end of such attacks, the country could be seriously exposed. The understanding of how 5G could be exploited for spying and to sabotage critical infrastructure changed everything for the Australians, according to people familiar with the deliberations.
Mike Burgess, the head of the signals directorate, recently explained why the security of fifth generation, or 5G, technology was so important: It will be integral to the communications at the heart of a country's critical infrastructure - everything from electric power to water supplies to sewage, he said in a March speech at a Sydney research institute."
National Security concerns, hence why you don't buy critical infrastructure from actual or potential adversaries, and China is certainly an adversary.