iPhone 11 & iPhone 11 Pro sales strong in US, longer wait times than 2018

Posted:
in AAPL Investors
Apple's 2019 iPhones are off to a strong start in terms of sales in the United States, analysts at UBS claim, but the firm's data suggests customers may have to wait longer to get hold of the iPhone 11 or iPhone 11 Pro models than customers did for the 2018 releases.

The iPhone 11
The iPhone 11


After observing a "general bias" to the downside for iPhone sales from other analysts, the investor note from UBS seen by AppleInsider indicates the data does "not suggest the type of short-falls in sales that we saw last year." UBS reckons it is due to "more modest expectations from Apple" and its supply chain for 2019.

On the subject of availability, using data from the first five days after launch suggests there are longer wait times for the iPhone 11 and iPhone 11 Pro than the iPhone XR and iPhone XS, with supply for the iPhone 11 "much more modest" despite having a lower average selling price versus the iPhone XR.

In the first five days, availability in the US for the 2019 models is longer compared to last year, with iPhone 11 availability better in Japan and the United Kingdom relative to the US, while the iPhone 11 Pro's availability somewhat longer in the US, UK, and Hong Kong than the iPhone 11.

UBS Evidence Lab charts of iPhone availability


After a visit to 38 companies in Asia last week, UBS has increased its smartphone market estimate for the full-year 2019 from being down 7% to down 5%. For iPhones, procurement for new models is apparently tracking flat, at -12% year-on-year for the second half of 2019, which could imply 60 to 68 million units coming from the supply chain.

UBS continues to model the second half of 2019's iPhone shipments down 5.3%, slightly pessimistic compared to the Wall Street consensus of down 4.4%. While supply chain build plans "could be biased lower" than UBS' original estimate, the firm believes it isn't something that will trigger investors to sell their shares "given what should be a big 2020 on a number of fronts."

The current UBS valuation of Apple is "Buy" with a price target of $235.

Comments

  • Reply 1 of 17
    Traded my XS in for an 11 Pro this week and the reservation was worthless. The store was such a mess it made the worst DMV experience look like a model of efficiency. It was also more than obvious that the floor staff were poorly trained and supervised and thrown to the wolves.

    If this is an example of Apple retail in 2019, it is in trouble. This store (Saddle Creek) is one of the oldest and was one of the first reimagined a couple of years back. It was once a model of efficiency and well trained staff. That was not on display this week.
  • Reply 2 of 17
    I had the opposite experience. I picked up my new 11 Pro Max on Friday at the Deer Park Apple Store via reservation and was out of the store in 30 minutes (including wait time).  Everybody in line seemed happy.


    lkruppRayz2016AppleExposed
  • Reply 3 of 17
    Dave Kap said:
    I had the opposite experience. I picked up my new 11 Pro Max on Friday at the Deer Park Apple Store via reservation and was out of the store in 30 minutes (including wait time).  Everybody in line seemed happy.


    That store is always busy.
  • Reply 4 of 17
    sflocalsflocal Posts: 4,751member
    My SO needed a new iPhone so we went last week to Apple's flagship store in San Francisco to look at them.  The Pro models are just stunning.  She decided with what I call the "Tactical Green" model, both our favorites.  The store was packed with people.  I'm still quite happy with my iPhone X but I'll tell ya, it was tempting for me.  I might still wait for the 2020 model next year as there is nothing really wrong with what I have.

    A couple of hours later, I went to the Microsoft Store at the mall next to the Apple store and it was just sad, absolutely sad bordering on pathetic.  There were maybe 3-4 customers in the store, and the folks that worked there just seemed to not have any motivation to help anyone.  No one was looking at any of the Android phones.  I think the folks that were in the store were just there to use their Internet connection than actually shopping.
    lolliverAppleExposedpscooter63
  • Reply 5 of 17
    I spoke to a corporate Verizon store two days ago. They said iPhone 11 is in stock and there’s not much demand for it. iPhone 11 Pro and Pro Max sold about 100 units combined since its release and they were out of stock. 
  • Reply 6 of 17
    sflocalsflocal Posts: 4,751member
    davgreg said:
    Traded my XS in for an 11 Pro this week and the reservation was worthless. The store was such a mess it made the worst DMV experience look like a model of efficiency. It was also more than obvious that the floor staff were poorly trained and supervised and thrown to the wolves.

    If this is an example of Apple retail in 2019, it is in trouble. This store (Saddle Creek) is one of the oldest and was one of the first reimagined a couple of years back. It was once a model of efficiency and well trained staff. That was not on display this week.
    I'm at multiple Apple store a few times every year.  Each and every time it is efficient, quick, and when there are crowds the staff makes the experience a pleasant one.

    It's not to say that Saddle Creek store is an anomaly, but I've been to three different Apple stores in the last couple months and they were all well-run.
    Rayz2016AppleExposed
  • Reply 7 of 17
    sflocal said:
    My SO needed a new iPhone so we went last week to Apple's flagship store in San Francisco to look at them.  The Pro models are just stunning.  She decided with what I call the "Tactical Green" model, both our favorites.  The store was packed with people.  I'm still quite happy with my iPhone X but I'll tell ya, it was tempting for me.  I might still wait for the 2020 model next year as there is nothing really wrong with what I have.

    A couple of hours later, I went to the Microsoft Store at the mall next to the Apple store and it was just sad, absolutely sad bordering on pathetic.  There were maybe 3-4 customers in the store, and the folks that worked there just seemed to not have any motivation to help anyone.  No one was looking at any of the Android phones.  I think the folks that were in the store were just there to use their Internet connection than actually shopping.
    I never would’ve expected it to be such a hit, but it seems everyone is going for the green phones this time. Who knew?
  • Reply 8 of 17
    davgreg said:
    Traded my XS in for an 11 Pro this week and the reservation was worthless. The store was such a mess it made the worst DMV experience look like a model of efficiency. It was also more than obvious that the floor staff were poorly trained and supervised and thrown to the wolves.

    If this is an example of Apple retail in 2019, it is in trouble. This store (Saddle Creek) is one of the oldest and was one of the first reimagined a couple of years back. It was once a model of efficiency and well trained staff. That was not on display this week.
    Howdy, I was the very first customer in the original Saddle Creek store in Germantown, TN. Still have 3 plastic tubes with the blue Apple logo t-shirts unopened. Came over from Heber Springs, AR for the original opening.
    I never feel comfortable in the newer Saddle Creek Apple store, chaos in motion any time I visit the store and staff is no longer at the same caliber. Ingress/egress is terrible along with parking, the original location was a much better locale IMHO not to mention better visibility. Live about 2 miles from the store when I'm not up in Heber Springs.
    edited September 26 AppleExposedsirozha
  • Reply 9 of 17
    bigtds said:
    Dave Kap said:
    I had the opposite experience. I picked up my new 11 Pro Max on Friday at the Deer Park Apple Store via reservation and was out of the store in 30 minutes (including wait time).  Everybody in line seemed happy.


    That store is always busy.
    Same here, but was
    discouraged to set it up in the store. So i went home and do it myself....lazy Apple store sales agent....
  • Reply 10 of 17
    AppleExposedAppleExposed Posts: 1,688unconfirmed, member
    Not gonna lie. I didn't think the new iPhones would be in high demand. Good for Apple.

    I bet TV+ will bring in a lot of switchers too.

    sirozha said:
    I spoke to a corporate Verizon store two days ago. They said iPhone 11 is in stock and there’s not much demand for it. iPhone 11 Pro and Pro Max sold about 100 units combined since its release and they were out of stock. 

    So iPhone 11 is a failure. /s

     This will be the media narrative like iPhone XS and iPhone 5c before it which were outsold by other iPhone models.
    edited September 26
  • Reply 11 of 17
    sflocal said:
    davgreg said:
    Traded my XS in for an 11 Pro this week and the reservation was worthless. The store was such a mess it made the worst DMV experience look like a model of efficiency. It was also more than obvious that the floor staff were poorly trained and supervised and thrown to the wolves.

    If this is an example of Apple retail in 2019, it is in trouble. This store (Saddle Creek) is one of the oldest and was one of the first reimagined a couple of years back. It was once a model of efficiency and well trained staff. That was not on display this week.
    I'm at multiple Apple store a few times every year.  Each and every time it is efficient, quick, and when there are crowds the staff makes the experience a pleasant one.

    It's not to say that Saddle Creek store is an anomaly, but I've been to three different Apple stores in the last couple months and they were all well-run.

    As far as Apple products and services are concerned, bad luck always seems to follow Davgreg.
    StrangeDays
  • Reply 12 of 17
    Article regarding original Apple Store opening at Saddle Creek in Germantown, TN. Article originally appeared on Maccentral.com.

    https://www.macworld.com/article/1019612/store.html
    edited September 27
  • Reply 13 of 17
    zoetmbzoetmb Posts: 2,491member
    Anecdotal, but I was in the Lincoln Square, NYC store last night and iPhone 11's and 11 Pro's were flying out the door, but I didn't see anyone buy the Pro Max.   I was there for about 20 minutes and I'd say just at the table where I was "playing", about 15-20 phones got sold, but that wasn't the only place in the store where people were buying phones.    The phones do look very nice.   I shot a little video and that looked amazingly good.   I almost caved and bought one, although I really want to wait another year. 


    hippo
  • Reply 14 of 17
    zoetmb said:
    Anecdotal, but I was in the Lincoln Square, NYC store last night and iPhone 11's and 11 Pro's were flying out the door, but I didn't see anyone buy the Pro Max.   I was there for about 20 minutes and I'd say just at the table where I was "playing", about 15-20 phones got sold, but that wasn't the only place in the store where people were buying phones.    The phones do look very nice.   I shot a little video and that looked amazingly good.   I almost caved and bought one, although I really want to wait another year. 


    thanks for the observations – that’s a convenient store to visit when in the city. great to see they are selling well.

    what model are you using now? the ultra wide to telephoto versatility of the 3-camera 11 Pro’s is huge compared to any previous models. that and the significantly increased battery life are what’s making me want to upgrade.
  • Reply 15 of 17
    Apple is gonna sell millions upon millions of the iPhone 11.  They will be fine. 
    StrangeDays
  • Reply 16 of 17
    I believe it. Last year, the day after release of 10s and 10r, you could literally walk in with no lines and buy it.
    Today? There are sold out... EVERYWHERE in my area. Not even the cell phone carrier Verizon, Sprint, ATT have them in stock. 
    Best Buy and Target sold out as well.

    I think the 11 will be the most successful trio of iPhones ever made. 
  • Reply 17 of 17
    MplsPMplsP Posts: 1,728member
    Interesting - this is 'good' news, so we chose to believe these analysts instead of deriding them like we do the ones that give news we don't like?

    It's always hard to know how much demand there is to upgrade in any given year. The iPhone 11 line up seems solid. I don't need a new phone, but would have no problems picking any one of them. 

    I wonder if they chose '11' and '11 pro' rather than 'Xr' and 'Xs' like they did last year so customers would psychologically group them together rather than separately?
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