You might want to save that fine crow for New Year.
iPhone was down nearly 10% YoY.
The blowout quarter is next up and might prove to be a turnaround moment but even then, it will be a hard slog through to the iPhone 12 (and 5G).
I'm guessing China has left a gaping hole in handset revenues.
Squawk, squawk. Yes, we all know the days of infinite iphone growth have peaked, and it doesn’t matter. No one claimed iPhone would or even could grow forever. Even still, it’s been the most successful smartphone in history. YoY iPhone may be down, but other products are up, services are up. For years people said the insane revenue of iPhone was a liability, now there is diversity, and surprise! The Downer Choir is still trying to suggest things aren’t well at Apple.
I'd surmise that Apple is generating more profit from wearables than Huawei is from all of its phone sales, but frankly, due to Huawei's low margins, that's a safe bet.
He may be upset his knockoff AirPods aren't gaining traction outside of China.
No big surprise that iPhone sales are down YoY. Most users are on a 3-4 year upgrade cycle as opposed to a 2-3 year upgrade cycle. As the market for smartphones matures, innovation slows down and product lifecycles lengthen. This is why Apple's growth needs to come from other areas. It was never a good idea for iPhone sales to be ~70% of Apple's revenue. Overall, a solid quarter...
And you know this how? You've personally conducted statistically valid surveys? Anectodal evidence means little, but not many people I know wait 3 years to upgrade their phone.
No big surprise that iPhone sales are down YoY. Most users are on a 3-4 year upgrade cycle as opposed to a 2-3 year upgrade cycle. As the market for smartphones matures, innovation slows down and product lifecycles lengthen. This is why Apple's growth needs to come from other areas. It was never a good idea for iPhone sales to be ~70% of Apple's revenue. Overall, a solid quarter...
And you know this how? You've personally conducted statistically valid surveys? Anectodal evidence means little, but not many people I know wait 3 years to upgrade their phone.
🙌 When's the next dividend payment date? Daddy needs a new airplane!
edit: As expected. After the holiday quarter we'll likely get a bump.
Apple’s board of directors has declared a cash dividend of $0.77 per share of the Company’s common stock. The dividend is payable on November 14, 2019 to shareholders of record as of the close of business on November 11, 2019.
First of all, it’s normal for iPhone sales to be down in the forth quarter because the new sales come out at the very end. This quarter will be the important one. The new phones are selling very well. They had no effect on forth quarter results, other than to depress sales of previous models, which as I said, is normal.
basically it a good idea to ignore Avon7, which is something I’m guilty of not doing, though I’ve stopped bothering to continue with him in a couple of other threads. He’s only here to promote Huawei, which is sick, as he should be on Huawei forums instead.
I’ll just end this post by saying that’s it’s funny that Huawei’s founder and his daughter prefer Apple’s product to their own. He said that he doesn’t have to love Huawei’s products the way he loves the company.
You might want to save that fine crow for New Year.
iPhone was down nearly 10% YoY.
The blowout quarter is next up and might prove to be a turnaround moment but even then, it will be a hard slog through to the iPhone 12 (and 5G).
I'm guessing China has left a gaping hole in handset revenues.
The most successful company on earth just had another record shattering quarter, beating all expectations yet again, and you have the trollish gall to use words like "slog"? A "slog" compared to what, exactly? Some company on another planet? iPhone sales don't need to grow forever. No sane person thinks they can. Apple's services segment is growing at a massive pace, and Apple is making all the right moves to strengthen and expand it's amazing ecosystem.
You might want to save that fine crow for New Year.
iPhone was down nearly 10% YoY.
The blowout quarter is next up and might prove to be a turnaround moment but even then, it will be a hard slog through to the iPhone 12 (and 5G).
I'm guessing China has left a gaping hole in handset revenues.
I'm guessing you don't realize India is a huge new market.
Apple's share of the India market is barely 1%, so no, not huge.
Correct as it just started. But don't take my word for it, ask Apple. Remember, Indian is getting the 6S manufactured first for the nation.
Over two years ago, August of 2017, it was the iPhone SE that was being manufactured for India in India. Mr Cook was very bullish about that too. "CEO Tim Cook (said) he is “very, very bullish and very, very optimistic about India.” He said Apple is focusing all its energies on the Indian market.
“We are investing in India…we've already launched an app accelerator center. That's on top of working with the channel and looking at expanding our go-to-market in general. And we began to produce the iPhone SE there during the quarter, (using Wistron) and we're really happy with how that's going. And so we're bringing all of our energies to bear there. I see a lot of similarities to where China was several years ago,” Cook said.
India is a tough market. In Apple's favor they are no longer as reliant on iPhone sales so a fail in India wouldn't be the end of the world.
Well according to the CPI inflation calculator the rate of inflation from 2018 to 2019 was 2% so revenue was flat.
Revenue was only flat under the mikethemartian accounting rules, but not under GAAP, which is what most of the rest of the planet uses.
Well first any Finance 101 course will teach you in the very first week that all that matters is hard cash flow not what accountants call revenue or net income which can be manipulated all sorts of ways by how income is recognized under FASB standards. Second even if we accept the revenue numbers given by the accountants as stated in the article, grade school mathematics shows us that $64B/$62.9B is 1.017 which means an increase of 1.7% over last year which is less than the 2% inflation rate for the last year per the US government. Now you don’t have to be an expert in quantum field theory to understand this. There’s no need to solve any differential equations or linear algebra tensors. But maybe you can tell me mathematically what is wrong with the above statement that revenue fell behind the inflation rate.
You might want to save that fine crow for New Year.
iPhone was down nearly 10% YoY.
The blowout quarter is next up and might prove to be a turnaround moment but even then, it will be a hard slog through to the iPhone 12 (and 5G).
I'm guessing China has left a gaping hole in handset revenues.
True investors understand that its the aggregate of all your decisions you should measure your results by, not by each individual decision.
And likewise we comprehend that it’s the aggregate of all of Apple’s businesses, products and services that Apple should be measured by. In fact, it’s a feather in their cap that (a) they were able to capture an outsize share of profits in the global smartphone business during the high growth years and (b) they are successfully diversifying to offset the plateauing of that market. How anyone sees this otherwise simply shines light on their own lacking in ability to see the bigger picture.
"Profits at the world’s largest producer of chips and mobile devices are expected to improve as the memory industry climbs out of a protracted downturn. Its smartphone business, which has weathered a series of setbacks in past years, is benefiting from Huawei Technologies Co.’s woes abroad, while Apple Inc.’s in-demand iPhone 11 is revitalizing demand for Samsung’s most advanced displays."
I'm sure that Huawei is doing very well in China, SOE, nationalism and all that.
Oh, and in case you want to argue how "unfair" the U.S has been towards Huawei, consider what China did to South Korea when the U.S. deployed THAAD there;
Implications for the United States and the Geopolitical Landscape in the Asia Pacific
China’s response to the U.S.-South Korean deployment of THAAD and its array of coercive levers used to try to compel South Korea to abandon the missile defense system have a number of significant implications for the United States and the Asia Pacific.
China’s willingness to use economic coercion as a tool to compel South Korea to reverse its decision to deploy THAAD could portend similarly aggressive moves on future occasions where China feels its national security interests are being threatened, creating a powerful deterrent for other countries involved in potential diplomatic or security disputes with China. This is particularly relevant for countries in the Asia Pacific region, where production networks are very closely integrated, with China serving as a top—or among the top—consumer of their exports.95
It's quite stunning how well Cook & Co. have executed. Absolutely stunning. I was among those who were worried some months ago, when it became clear that Apple had no clear strategy for 5G in 2019, but I was 100% wrong about the remarkable success of the iPhone 11/Pro/Pro Max.
Happy to to eat some very fine crow!
I don’t think anyone has a clear strategy for 5G.... Other than plastering it all over their advertising.
Well according to the CPI inflation calculator the rate of inflation from 2018 to 2019 was 2% so revenue was flat.
Revenue was only flat under the mikethemartian accounting rules, but not under GAAP, which is what most of the rest of the planet uses.
Well first any Finance 101 course will teach you in the very first week that all that matters is hard cash flow not what accountants call revenue or net income which can be manipulated all sorts of ways by how income is recognized under FASB standards. Second even if we accept the revenue numbers given by the accountants as stated in the article, grade school mathematics shows us that $64B/$62.9B is 1.017 which means an increase of 1.7% over last year which is less than the 2% inflation rate for the last year per the US government. Now you don’t have to be an expert in quantum field theory to understand this. There’s no need to solve any differential equations or linear algebra tensors. But maybe you can tell me mathematically what is wrong with the above statement that revenue fell behind the inflation rate.
It did so due to the $1 billion currency exchange hit. Otherwise it would have beaten inflation, yes?
Well according to the CPI inflation calculator the rate of inflation from 2018 to 2019 was 2% so revenue was flat.
Revenue was only flat under the mikethemartian accounting rules, but not under GAAP, which is what most of the rest of the planet uses.
Well first any Finance 101 course will teach you in the very first week that all that matters is hard cash flow not what accountants call revenue or net income which can be manipulated all sorts of ways by how income is recognized under FASB standards. Second even if we accept the revenue numbers given by the accountants as stated in the article, grade school mathematics shows us that $64B/$62.9B is 1.017 which means an increase of 1.7% over last year which is less than the 2% inflation rate for the last year per the US government. Now you don’t have to be an expert in quantum field theory to understand this. There’s no need to solve any differential equations or linear algebra tensors. But maybe you can tell me mathematically what is wrong with the above statement that revenue fell behind the inflation rate.
Because that isn’t how YoY numbers are ever calculated.
Well according to the CPI inflation calculator the rate of inflation from 2018 to 2019 was 2% so revenue was flat.
Revenue was only flat under the mikethemartian accounting rules, but not under GAAP, which is what most of the rest of the planet uses.
Well first any Finance 101 course will teach you in the very first week that all that matters is hard cash flow not what accountants call revenue or net income which can be manipulated all sorts of ways by how income is recognized under FASB standards. Second even if we accept the revenue numbers given by the accountants as stated in the article, grade school mathematics shows us that $64B/$62.9B is 1.017 which means an increase of 1.7% over last year which is less than the 2% inflation rate for the last year per the US government. Now you don’t have to be an expert in quantum field theory to understand this. There’s no need to solve any differential equations or linear algebra tensors. But maybe you can tell me mathematically what is wrong with the above statement that revenue fell behind the inflation rate.
It did so due to the $1 billion currency exchange hit. Otherwise it would have beaten inflation, yes?
Well according to the CPI inflation calculator the rate of inflation from 2018 to 2019 was 2% so revenue was flat.
Revenue was only flat under the mikethemartian accounting rules, but not under GAAP, which is what most of the rest of the planet uses.
Well first any Finance 101 course will teach you in the very first week that all that matters is hard cash flow not what accountants call revenue or net income which can be manipulated all sorts of ways by how income is recognized under FASB standards. Second even if we accept the revenue numbers given by the accountants as stated in the article, grade school mathematics shows us that $64B/$62.9B is 1.017 which means an increase of 1.7% over last year which is less than the 2% inflation rate for the last year per the US government. Now you don’t have to be an expert in quantum field theory to understand this. There’s no need to solve any differential equations or linear algebra tensors. But maybe you can tell me mathematically what is wrong with the above statement that revenue fell behind the inflation rate.
It did so due to the $1 billion currency exchange hit. Otherwise it would have beaten inflation, yes?
If they would have recorded $65B then they would have had about a 3.3% increase in revenue giving them about a 1.3% margin over inflation. But beating inflation is still the bare minimum of any investment. It would still have to be compared to other investments available with the same level of risk. But in the end it is still the bottom line number that matters more (except when there is some extraordinary line item that is unlikely to ever occur again). Actually what really matters in the end though isn't revenues but cash flows. The FASB accounting rules (other than when a cash basis is used) on how income and expenses are recognized really just serves to calculate and minimize taxes. Once the tax liability is determined all the accounting adjustments like depreciation, amortization, etc. have to be reversed to determine the actual cash flow that is required (along with timing and discount rate info) for an asset valuation to determine the worth of the company. Maybe they did even better when cash flow is compared to last year. I don't know.
You might want to save that fine crow for New Year.
iPhone was down nearly 10% YoY.
The blowout quarter is next up and might prove to be a turnaround moment but even then, it will be a hard slog through to the iPhone 12 (and 5G).
I'm guessing China has left a gaping hole in handset revenues.
I'm guessing you don't realize India is a huge new market.
I realize it. Does Apple? Because up until now, there have been a lot of words but on ground they have taken a beating.
The only way to conquer the Indian market os to have 'new' phones that can appeal to huge swathes of purchasers.
Selling premium phones at premium prices and using lower priced older phones hasn't garnered great results.
The rumoured SE2 might make a good fit here but according to virtually all the naysayers here, 'Apple doesn't do that' (in spite of them adjusting pricing downwards right under their noses. The SE2 (for want of a better name) would simply be a continuation of that policy.
Well according to the CPI inflation calculator the rate of inflation from 2018 to 2019 was 2% so revenue was flat.
Revenue was only flat under the mikethemartian accounting rules, but not under GAAP, which is what most of the rest of the planet uses.
Well first any Finance 101 course will teach you in the very first week that all that matters is hard cash flow not what accountants call revenue or net income which can be manipulated all sorts of ways by how income is recognized under FASB standards. Second even if we accept the revenue numbers given by the accountants as stated in the article, grade school mathematics shows us that $64B/$62.9B is 1.017 which means an increase of 1.7% over last year which is less than the 2% inflation rate for the last year per the US government. Now you don’t have to be an expert in quantum field theory to understand this. There’s no need to solve any differential equations or linear algebra tensors. But maybe you can tell me mathematically what is wrong with the above statement that revenue fell behind the inflation rate.
It did so due to the $1 billion currency exchange hit. Otherwise it would have beaten inflation, yes?
Well according to the CPI inflation calculator the rate of inflation from 2018 to 2019 was 2% so revenue was flat.
Revenue was only flat under the mikethemartian accounting rules, but not under GAAP, which is what most of the rest of the planet uses.
Well first any Finance 101 course will teach you in the very first week that all that matters is hard cash flow not what accountants call revenue or net income which can be manipulated all sorts of ways by how income is recognized under FASB standards. Second even if we accept the revenue numbers given by the accountants as stated in the article, grade school mathematics shows us that $64B/$62.9B is 1.017 which means an increase of 1.7% over last year which is less than the 2% inflation rate for the last year per the US government. Now you don’t have to be an expert in quantum field theory to understand this. There’s no need to solve any differential equations or linear algebra tensors. But maybe you can tell me mathematically what is wrong with the above statement that revenue fell behind the inflation rate.
It did so due to the $1 billion currency exchange hit. Otherwise it would have beaten inflation, yes?
If they would have recorded $65B then they would have had about a 3.3% increase in revenue giving them about a 1.3% margin over inflation. But beating inflation is still the bare minimum of any investment. It would still have to be compared to other investments available with the same level of risk. But in the end it is still the bottom line number that matters more (except when there is some extraordinary line item that is unlikely to ever occur again). Actually what really matters in the end though isn't revenues but cash flows. The FASB accounting rules (other than when a cash basis is used) on how income and expenses are recognized really just serves to calculate and minimize taxes. Once the tax liability is determined all the accounting adjustments like depreciation, amortization, etc. have to be reversed to determine the actual cash flow that is required (along with timing and discount rate info) for an asset valuation to determine the worth of the company. Maybe they did even better when cash flow is compared to last year. I don't know.
Give me a minute. Still counting the number of times you moved the goal post in a single comment.
Apple repurchased 85.7 million shares in the open market during the quarter, at a cost of $17.9 billion and an average price of $208.79. That doesn't include 6.9 million shares which were delivered to Apple during the quarter to complete a $12 billion ASR agreement that Apple entered into in February. Apple's outstanding share count dropped by 88.2 million during the quarter.
Over the last 7 years Apple has repurchased 2.420 billion shares at a cost of $306.1 billon and an average price of $126.51.
The new outstanding share count, as of October 18th, is 4,443,265,000. That number actually went up a small amount from the end of the quarter, which suggests that Apple wasn't very active buying back shares during those 3 weeks.
Comments
Revenue was only flat under the mikethemartian accounting rules, but not under GAAP, which is what most of the rest of the planet uses.
Because Services was so high, I figured MORE people were using iPhones.
Thanks for the confirmation.
He may be upset his knockoff AirPods aren't gaining traction outside of China.
And you know this how? You've personally conducted statistically valid surveys? Anectodal evidence means little, but not many people I know wait 3 years to upgrade their phone.
https://www.ped30.com/2019/10/28/evercore-apples-iphone-replacement-cycle-grown-39-months-ok/
dbad
basically it a good idea to ignore Avon7, which is something I’m guilty of not doing, though I’ve stopped bothering to continue with him in a couple of other threads. He’s only here to promote Huawei, which is sick, as he should be on Huawei forums instead.
I’ll just end this post by saying that’s it’s funny that Huawei’s founder and his daughter prefer Apple’s product to their own. He said that he doesn’t have to love Huawei’s products the way he loves the company.
"CEO Tim Cook (said) he is “very, very bullish and very, very optimistic about India.” He said Apple is focusing all its energies on the Indian market.
“We are investing in India…we've already launched an app accelerator center. That's on top of working with the channel and looking at expanding our go-to-market in general. And we began to produce the iPhone SE there during the quarter, (using Wistron) and we're really happy with how that's going. And so we're bringing all of our energies to bear there. I see a lot of similarities to where China was several years ago,” Cook said.
India is a tough market. In Apple's favor they are no longer as reliant on iPhone sales so a fail in India wouldn't be the end of the world.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/samsung-beats-estimates-smartphone-profits-234941700.html
"Profits at the world’s largest producer of chips and mobile devices are expected to improve as the memory industry climbs out of a protracted downturn. Its smartphone business, which has weathered a series of setbacks in past years, is benefiting from Huawei Technologies Co.’s woes abroad, while Apple Inc.’s in-demand iPhone 11 is revitalizing demand for Samsung’s most advanced displays."
I'm sure that Huawei is doing very well in China, SOE, nationalism and all that.
Oh, and in case you want to argue how "unfair" the U.S has been towards Huawei, consider what China did to South Korea when the U.S. deployed THAAD there;
https://www.uscc.gov/sites/default/files/Research/Report_China's Response to THAAD Deployment and its Implications.pdf
Implications for the United States and the Geopolitical Landscape in the Asia Pacific
China’s response to the U.S.-South Korean deployment of THAAD and its array of coercive levers used to try to compel South Korea to abandon the missile defense system have a number of significant implications for the United States and the Asia Pacific.
China’s willingness to use economic coercion as a tool to compel South Korea to reverse its decision to deploy THAAD could portend similarly aggressive moves on future occasions where China feels its national security interests are being threatened, creating a powerful deterrent for other countries involved in potential diplomatic or security disputes with China. This is particularly relevant for countries in the Asia Pacific region, where production networks are very closely integrated, with China serving as a top—or among the top—consumer of their exports.95
The only way to conquer the Indian market os to have 'new' phones that can appeal to huge swathes of purchasers.
Selling premium phones at premium prices and using lower priced older phones hasn't garnered great results.
The rumoured SE2 might make a good fit here but according to virtually all the naysayers here, 'Apple doesn't do that' (in spite of them adjusting pricing downwards right under their noses. The SE2 (for want of a better name) would simply be a continuation of that policy.
Over the last 7 years Apple has repurchased 2.420 billion shares at a cost of $306.1 billon and an average price of $126.51.
The new outstanding share count, as of October 18th, is 4,443,265,000. That number actually went up a small amount from the end of the quarter, which suggests that Apple wasn't very active buying back shares during those 3 weeks.