Four 5G 'iPhone 12' models in 2020, 'iPhone SE 2 Plus' in 2021 says Ming-Chi Kuo

AppleInsider

Ming-Chi Kuo believes that Apple will have four 5G iPhone 12 and the "iPhone SE 2" in 2020, and an "iPhone SE 2 Plus" in 2021 -- all of which may spark the super cycle that analysts have been expecting to arrive for some time.

Ming-Chi Kuo predictions for the 2020 and 2021 iPhone lineup

In a research note seen by AppleInsider, TF Securities' Ming-Chi Kuo says that "5G support will be the most critical technology upgrade for new 2H20 iPhone models." He predicts that all of the "iPhone 12" models in the fall of 2020 will be equipped with the Qualcomm X55 modem and support 5G -- with specific bands of support dependent on the country.

He predicts that Apple may disable the non-mmWave iPhone 5G function for countries that don't offer that aspect, or have a shallow 5G penetration rate to reduce the purchase cost. As such, he predicts that the Sub-6G+mmWave iPhone will launch in five markets, including the US, Canada, Japan, Korea, and the UK, and account for up to 20% of the total new iPhone shipments in the second half of calendar year 2020.

While there are routing and advantages promised to customers in the future in the 5G sub-6GHz network, mmWave is the source of much of the promised speed of 5G.

Beyond 5G support, the 2020 iPhone is expected to get 3D depth sensing capabilities using the rear camera. It is also suggested Apple could bring back Touch ID by taking advantage of acoustic fingerprinting to turn the entire display into a fingerprint reader, something that has been featured in a few patent applications by the company.

Sizes of the "iPhone 12"

He further goes on to repeat his previous predictions that the "iPhone 12" will have four models, including 5.4-inch OLED with rear dual-cam, 6.1-inch OLED with rear dual-cam, 6.1-inch OLED with rear triple-cam plus time-of-flight sensors, and 6.7- inch OLED with rear triple-cam+ToF. He expects Apple to launch the 4.7-inch LCD "iPhone SE 2" earlier in 2020, with a form-factor similar to that of the iPhone 8.

"iPhone 13" and "iPhone SE 2 Plus" in 2021

For the first time, though, Kuo is predicting an "iPhone SE2 Plus" in the first half of 2021, in 5.5- or 6.1-inch sizes, with a full-screen design. It is predicted to feature a smaller notch, because of no Face ID support, and Touch ID integrated in the power button on the side.

Controversially, the "iPhone 13" in the fall of 2021 is predicted to not have a Lightning port, and provide a "completely wireless experience." Kuo has nothing else to say about the iPhone which at this point is almost two years away from reaching customers' hands.

Kuo expects that the iPhone shipments will increase by around 6 percent and 8 percent year-over-year to about 210 million and 225 million in 2020 and 2021, respectively. This is specifically due to 5G support, the new form factor designs, and better product mixes.

The sales prediction increases on Thursday are up from previous estimates of 200 million in 2020. The new predictions are more in line with the heyday of iPhone sales in 2015, with the company selling 231.2 million iPhones in that year. The company sold 211.8 million, 216.8 million, and 217.7 million iPhones in fiscal years 2016, 2017, and 2018 respectively.

racoleman29

And hopefully...USB-C.

McJobs

I miss the Steve Jobs era. One iPhone and two colors. Simple and clean offer for customers.

pulseimages

I wish he would touch upon prices since he seems to know everything else. 

canukstorm

McJobs said:

I miss the Steve Jobs era. One iPhone and two colors. Simple and clean offer for customers.

There weren't 900 million iPhone users in the Steve Jobs era.  With a user base that large, one size does not fit all.

seanismorris

What’s the logic behind the SE prediction?  

I think Apple has satisfied the market for a cheaper phone with continuing to sell older models.

Also, regarding “Touch ID integrated in the power button on the side” I don’t think anyone wants this as the primary method to log in to their phone.

I wouldn’t mind Touch ID on the side + Face ID.  Or, Touch ID in the screen + Face ID.  That would leave the user with multiple authentication options.  A verbal pass code + Face ID would probably be more secure (adding “what you know”).  It would also be amusing...

dm3

canukstorm said:

McJobs said:

I miss the Steve Jobs era. One iPhone and two colors. Simple and clean offer for customers.

There weren't 900 million iPhone users in the Steve Jobs era.  With a user base that large, one size does not fit all.

Exactly.... why can't Apple make a SMALL iPhone. An iPhone 5, 5S, SE size phone with a 4.7" display like is in the iPhone 6, 6S, 7, 8 and now some future phone.

Is Apple technically unable to do it? Maybe its just too hard and Apple can't handle it. It may simply be too difficult to cram in touch or face ID without some giant chin taking a big portion of the screen. 

Either that or Apple is unable to offer a real variety of sizes for its users. One size does not fit all. The current sizes are all too close. The smallest iPhone is still too large.

Eric_WVGG

seanismorris said:

What’s the logic behind the SE prediction?  

I think Apple has satisfied the market for a cheaper phone with continuing to sell older models.

You'll note that they haven't been doing that "sell last year's model, cheaper" with the X, XS or XS Max though. Low OLED yields, too expensive, and the round LCDs only slightly better. Those screens from the 6/7/8 have got to be crazy cheap by comparison.

Touch ID on the side button, nobody believes that, right? 

rogifan_new

What’s the logic behind two new phones that are exactly the same size? This is needless confusion.

muthuk_vanalingam

rogifan_new said:

What’s the logic behind two new phones that are exactly the same size? This is needless confusion.

I was about to ask the same question. Happy to see that you have already asked it already... So this alleged rumor seems illogical right now. Apple will most likely go with 3 phones for next year as well like they did this year.

planetary paul

Relating to the Lightning-less prediction: I would rather expect only the cheapest models to go wireless, if it were to happen at all. I am willing to pay more for more options, not for less. Not being able to connect peripheral devices suddenly makes the iPhone in question much less interesting to completely unusable in my case. Take ad hoc presentation for instance; you must then be sure of the connection. Wireless connection is generally difficult to impossible, unless the entire WiFi and BlueTooth landscape at that particular location is 100% under control and arranged in a way that is Apple-friendly. Forget about wireless presentation at a trade show because your signal is drowned out by all the networks of exhibitors bumping into each other. Then there is also scientific equipment that many will want to be able to connect. A lot already works with WiFi and/or BT, but that can be very susceptible to interference in a signal-saturated environment. Hard connections guarantee proper functioning. So I have my doubts about this particular prediction, although it is also clear that Apple would prefer nothing to be able to connect by wire in order to guarantee the integrity of the device. The most secure phone is of course one that nobody can use; but who buys such a thing?

caladanian

racoleman29 said:

And hopefully...USB-C.

Hopefully completely wireless already in 2020, I would wish. 

entropys

I would say a key reason USB-A cables and USB sticks are still prolific is Apple hasn’t transitioned the iPhone to USB-c. 

But wireless only iphone sounds like a cool idea I would be happy with, as long as it wasn’t too limiting. like planetary Paul is describing above: for real work in the real world outside the Apple lab it could be a problem.

Then is also the problem of the millions of carplay equipped cars that require a USB connection to the iPhone.  Maybe Apple can release a wireless dongle that plugs into the car’s USB-A port and communicates with the iPhone/familiy’s iPhones and lets the car think it is a USB connection.

i would also add that I am not a fan of wireless charging where you have to place your iPhone on a particular spot. I would prefer a more seamless,  or not have tothink about it technology where charging occurs at a distance. Otherwise I would prefer to just plug it in when I go to bed.

Those are the issues Apple would have to solve if it was to happen. Maybe the smart connector could be a solution for some of the above?

JWSC

I realize that Apple has likely made up its mind about the size of the SE2.  But I’ll reiterate what I and many others have said.  The original iPhone 5 was the best design iteration to date.  And the size was perfect for so many.  The fact that you could stand it up on end was really cool and useful under certain circumstances.  The SE2 should keep to that size and form factor while simply increasing the screen area.

I recently purchased the standard iPhone 11 Pro.  It’s a very nice iPhone.  I love the camera and accompanying software.  But the new iPhone is just a little too big and a little too heavy for me.  I WANT THE ORIGINAL SIZE APPLE!

Please.

StrangeDays

rogifan_new said:

What’s the logic behind two new phones that are exactly the same size? This is needless confusion.

How could anyone know until they’re announced? Maybe one has X-ray vision and the other doesn’t.

But my guess is one is the basic iPhone, the other is the iPhone Pro, and the bigger one is the Pro Max. Then possibly a smaller phone ala SE. That’s four sizes, two being the same. 

wood1208

Apple will make SE 2 size as 4.7" screen but they should add 2 cameras on back and if that requires to increase size slightly to 5"- 5.2" than so be.

GeorgeBMac

McJobs said:

I miss the Steve Jobs era. One iPhone and two colors. Simple and clean offer for customers.

That was back when phones were (just) phones.   The world has moved on and now those phones have encompass multiple types of functionality -- from simple phones, to textual communications devices, cameras, Social Media devices, web browsing and gaming...   Multiple uses require multiple form factors.   One size no longer fits all.

It wasn't that Steve was wrong with his simple, single 4" phone.  He was right   But, things have evolved since then.

GeorgeBMac

AppleInsider said:

Ming-Chi Kuo believes ....

....

Controversially, the "iPhone 13" in the fall of 2021 is predicted to not have a Lightning port, and provide a "completely wireless experience." Kuo has nothing else to say about the iPhone which at this point is almost two years away from reaching customers' hands.
....

Of all, I think this is by far the most radical -- If, for no other reason than the cost it would add to a phone:   Think of the millions and millions of iPhone owners that would have to buy multiple expensive wireless chargers and a set of wireless AirPods - and how it would make most current CarPlay centers obsolete and worthless.

While I see them headed in that direction, they will have to preload the world of Apple with all the wireless devices necessary to make a wireless iPhone feasible and functional.

Nah, I'm not buying it for the near future:  That's a post-Jobs Jony Ive design thing (form over function) and Jony is gone.   Long live Jony.

bala1234

"Controversially, the "iPhone 13" in the fall of 2021 is predicted to not have a Lightning port, and provide a "completely wireless experience." Kuo has nothing else to say about the iPhone which at this point is almost two years away from reaching customers' hands."

Yeah! I am ready for another round of everybody else finding fault with apple and when the realize users have taken it in their stride start copying it already....

YP101

I rather see SE model that retro design like 3GS. Cheap plastic  phone should be price at $300 with A12 3 GB ram. 64GB or $350 for 128GB.

Peza

Hmm, I’ll be most interested in the 5.4” OLED and the 5.5” SE ‘Plus’, because going off this rumour the 6.1” OLED will be far too expensive to buy.
the SE2 sounds exciting with a no hitch full screen, but only if it’s a 5.5” size.
i think the 5.4” OLED may still be overpriced.