iPhone production will see major impact if China factory halt continues

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Comments

  • Reply 21 of 31
    blastdoorblastdoor Posts: 3,209member
    tmay said:
    blastdoor said:
    sirozha said:
    blastdoor said:
    There seems to be a big disconnect between descriptions of what this virus does and the reaction to it. 

    It sounds like it's more or less equivalent (in terms of health effects) to the flu in the absence of a flu vaccine -- that is, hardly cataclysmic. 

    Rather than the virus causing economic hardship, it seems like it's the reaction to the virus that may cause hardship. 
    The flu doesn’t have a 3% mortality rate. Additionally, those who survive may have severe complications, such as failing kidneys, heart, liver, lung damage, encephalitis, etc. The consequences of  this illness could be life changing for a much higher percentage of people. The rate of infections is also much higher than the flu. The number of new infections per day quadruples every week. 

    Since when is the South China Morning Post “the source”? 

    Don’t take that mortality rate as gospel. To calculate that rate, you need to know two things:

    1. Numerator
    2. Denominator

    #1 is relatively easy. You have a dead body, you test it for Coronavirus. 
    #2 is much harder. You don’t go around testing all the live bodies for Coronavirus. If most people who get the virus don’t show noticeable symptoms beyond cold symptoms, then you’ll never know they had it and they’ll be excluded from #2. That results in an exaggerated mortality rate. 

    Edit: 
    another perspective: https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/its-catching/202001/the-chinese-coronavirus-is-not-the-zombie-apocalypse 
    Given that your link is 7 days old, I will disregard it for timeliness, though I do agree that the Flu currently is cause for far more deaths.

    https://www.businessinsider.com/wuhan-coronavirus-pandemic-what-that-means-epidemic-difference-2020-2

    • Scientists say the Wuhan coronavirus that has so far killed at least 362 people and infected over 17,000 other people could soon become a pandemic.
    • The World Health Organization defines a pandemic as "the worldwide spread of a new disease."
    • It's also defined by a lack of available treatment, a lack of human immunity, and an ability to spread from person to person.
    • The Wuhan coronavirus is "very, very transmissible, and it almost certainly is going to be a pandemic," Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told The New York Times on Sunday.
    Even this isn't the Zombie Apocalypse, but it could be broad enough in scope to start a mild world wide recession, which has all kinds of implications politically and economically.


    Props to you for posting the definition of a pandemic. 

    Notably absent from the definition of “pandemic” is a requirement that the disease be especially deadly. It could, in fact, be quite mild. 
    StrangeDays
  • Reply 22 of 31
    blastdoorblastdoor Posts: 3,209member
    Or maybe it just tells us that China has an authoritarian government that is able to do big disruptive things without providing much evidence that it makes sense. It wouldn’t be the first time they’ve done stuff like that.

    sirozha said:
    The fact that China locked down 100 million people in their cities and ordered all manufacturing facilities throughout China to stay closed at least for another week should tell us much more than the numbers they are releasing. 
  • Reply 23 of 31
    sirozhasirozha Posts: 801member
    blastdoor said:
    Or maybe it just tells us that China has an authoritarian government that is able to do big disruptive things without providing much evidence that it makes sense. It wouldn’t be the first time they’ve done stuff like that.

    sirozha said:
    The fact that China locked down 100 million people in their cities and ordered all manufacturing facilities throughout China to stay closed at least for another week should tell us much more than the numbers they are releasing. 
    China is extremely sensitive to their economic growth numbers. They were trying to cling to the 6% economic growth this year. That’s one of the reasons that they agreed to sign Phase 1 with Trump. 

    There is no way in hell they would halt their entire economy for at least another week if they were not trying to stave off something much more harmful for the economy.

    If the epidemic continues with the same rate of growth, there will be tens of millions of people getting sick daily a month from now. They know the math. They ran the numbers. They shut the economy down and locked up 100 million people for a reason and not because they are playing games with their people using the authoritarian powers. 
    edited February 2020
  • Reply 24 of 31
    I hope that Apple has contingency plans such as ramping up production in other countries such as Viet Nam. Unfortunately there are just so many factories in China that Apple can’t replace all of them. They should have diversified outside of China long ago. 
  • Reply 25 of 31
    DAalsethDAalseth Posts: 2,783member
    lkrupp said:
    Question? Is the Coronavirus killing young and old or is it like the typical flu that mostly kills the elderly and those with compromised immune systems? The Coronavirus is not new and is among a common family of Coronaviruses. What makes this one different? The news media have hyped this up to apocalyptic proportions.
    I read on the BBC this weekend, (though I can't now find the article), that those that succumbed were the latter. Younger, generally healthy people were just getting a bad flue out of it. Some even had no symptoms. 
    muthuk_vanalingam
  • Reply 26 of 31
    normmnormm Posts: 653member
    GG1 said:
    sirozha said:
    blastdoor said:
    There seems to be a big disconnect between descriptions of what this virus does and the reaction to it. 

    It sounds like it's more or less equivalent (in terms of health effects) to the flu in the absence of a flu vaccine -- that is, hardly cataclysmic. 

    Rather than the virus causing economic hardship, it seems like it's the reaction to the virus that may cause hardship. 
    The flu doesn’t have a 3% mortality rate. Additionally, those who survive may have severe complications, such as failing kidneys, heart, liver, lung damage, encephalitis, etc. The consequences of  this illness could be life changing for a much higher percentage of people. The rate of infections is also much higher than the flu. The number of new infections per day quadruples every week. 


    A colleague in Taiwan says the actual afflicted in Wuhan is 30x to 100x higher than what China is reporting.
    That would be excellent news, since that would mean the death rate is 30x to 100x lower than it seems right now.
    blastdoormuthuk_vanalingam
  • Reply 27 of 31
    normmnormm Posts: 653member
    sirozha said:
    blastdoor said:
    There seems to be a big disconnect between descriptions of what this virus does and the reaction to it. 

    It sounds like it's more or less equivalent (in terms of health effects) to the flu in the absence of a flu vaccine -- that is, hardly cataclysmic. 

    Rather than the virus causing economic hardship, it seems like it's the reaction to the virus that may cause hardship. 
    The flu doesn’t have a 3% mortality rate. Additionally, those who survive may have severe complications, such as failing kidneys, heart, liver, lung damage, encephalitis, etc. The consequences of  this illness could be life changing for a much higher percentage of people. The rate of infections is also much higher than the flu. The number of new infections per day quadruples every week. 

    I thought this article was particularly interesting:

    https://www.scmp.com/tech/science-research/article/3048579/coronavirus-case-us-treated-experimental-gilead-drug-may-spur

    It's a report from yesterday from Bloomberg claiming that some antivirals that were developed for generic coronaviruses seem to be working well for this one.
  • Reply 28 of 31

    I'd say the cost of human lives is more valuable than the quarterly numbers for Apple.

    I hope the contagion is contained and subdued soon.

    muthuk_vanalingam
  • Reply 29 of 31
    GG1 said:
    sirozha said:
    blastdoor said:
    There seems to be a big disconnect between descriptions of what this virus does and the reaction to it. 

    It sounds like it's more or less equivalent (in terms of health effects) to the flu in the absence of a flu vaccine -- that is, hardly cataclysmic. 

    Rather than the virus causing economic hardship, it seems like it's the reaction to the virus that may cause hardship. 
    The flu doesn’t have a 3% mortality rate. Additionally, those who survive may have severe complications, such as failing kidneys, heart, liver, lung damage, encephalitis, etc. The consequences of  this illness could be life changing for a much higher percentage of people. The rate of infections is also much higher than the flu. The number of new infections per day quadruples every week. 


    A colleague in Taiwan says the actual afflicted in Wuhan is 30x to 100x higher than what China is reporting.
    And he would know better because? I mean sure he’s physically closer to Wuhan than you, but there’s still the Straits of Formosa separating him from mainland China. 
    edited February 2020
  • Reply 30 of 31
    blastdoorblastdoor Posts: 3,209member
    sirozha said:
    blastdoor said:
    Or maybe it just tells us that China has an authoritarian government that is able to do big disruptive things without providing much evidence that it makes sense. It wouldn’t be the first time they’ve done stuff like that.

    sirozha said:
    The fact that China locked down 100 million people in their cities and ordered all manufacturing facilities throughout China to stay closed at least for another week should tell us much more than the numbers they are releasing. 
    China is extremely sensitive to their economic growth numbers. They were trying to cling to the 6% economic growth this year. That’s one of the reasons that they agreed to sign Phase 1 with Trump. 

    There is no way in hell they would halt their entire economy for at least another week if they were not trying to stave off something much more harmful for the economy.

    If the epidemic continues with the same rate of growth, there will be tens of millions of people getting sick daily a month from now. They know the math. They ran the numbers. They shut the economy down and locked up 100 million people for a reason and not because they are playing games with their people using the authoritarian powers. 
    The thing that is most important to Chinese leadership is holding onto power. A good economy contributes to that, sure. But public safety is even more important. Chinese leaders' reaction to SARS was to deny and coverup. That ended up being the wrong call -- SARS was a pretty serious disease and a lot of healthy people (not just the old/weak) died from it. Given that experience, leadership is now going in the opposite direction, but they're doing it with a less serious disease. It might work out for them from a "stay in power" perspective, though, because if the public is scared then a display of Big Man Strength might make the most sense from the perspective of holding onto power -- even if it does hurt the economy. Same thing works in the US -- truth/facts aren't always the key to holding onto power. 
  • Reply 31 of 31
    fastasleepfastasleep Posts: 6,393member
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