Foxconn claims it has secured enough workers for seasonal demand

Posted:
in General Discussion
Foxconn has assured investors that it has managed to recruit enough workers at all major Chinese factories before production of the "iPhone 12" is set to begin.

Foxconn claims it has secured enough workers for seasonal demand


Chinese Foxconn factories will return to full operational capacity following a difficult few months brought about by the ongoing COVID-19 epidemic.

The company issued a statement on Sunday night, stating that they'd reached their recruitment goals ahead of schedule, according to Nikkei Asian Review. Earlier in March, Chairman Young Liu had told investors that the factories were operating at 50% capacity.

Foxconn factories are anticipated to hit peak production in July, when they'll begin manufacturing the upcoming "iPhone 12" line for fall release. Factories underperformed in January through March, which lead to costly delays and staff shortages.

The coronavirus outbreak has made an impact on Foxconn's finances, with the iPhone assembly partner enduring its most significant year-on-year drop in revenue for a month in seven years due to the virus affecting its production pipeline. Shares in the company have steadily declined, dropping 4.7% on Monday as investors fear COVID-19 will dampen demand for consumer electronics in U.S. and U.K. markets.

The company has stressed that it is working hard to prevent new infections of COVID-19. Approximately 55,000 workers have been tested for coronavirus, with over 40,000 receiving additional chest X-rays.
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Comments

  • Reply 2 of 34
    lkrupplkrupp Posts: 9,639member
    blastdoor said:
    Rational people are already asking if completely destroying the world economy will cause more harm than the virus itself will. There are millions of U.S. workers losing their jobs and those jobs will NOT be coming back after the shutdown is over. The economy will not magically bounce back to where it was pre-Covid-19. My daughter-in-law has been talking to her friends that operate small businesses like nail salons, craft stores and such. They are telling her they are out of business for good, bankrupt, and will not be reopening. Of course the big restaurant chains will survive but the local sandwich shop on the corner is gone for good. Poof!
  • Reply 3 of 34
    jcs2305jcs2305 Posts: 1,224member
    lkrupp said:
    blastdoor said:
    Rational people are already asking if completely destroying the world economy will cause more harm than the virus itself will. There are millions of U.S. workers losing their jobs and those jobs will NOT be coming back after the shutdown is over. The economy will not magically bounce back to where it was pre-Covid-19. My daughter-in-law has been talking to her friends that operate small businesses like nail salons, craft stores and such. They are telling her they are out of business for good, bankrupt, and will not be reopening. Of course the big restaurant chains will survive but the local sandwich shop on the corner is gone for good. Poof!

    Bankrupt in a few weeks? Sounds like they may have been having trouble before the shutdowns..no?

    I am hoping with the leniency from creditors and banks because of what is going on will enable at least some of these small places to come back whenever the shutdown ends and things get back to somewhat normal.. If what you are saying is how it is going to be and not just the situation for some businesses holy shit we are in trouble.. real trouble.. 
    StrangeDaysfastasleepGeorgeBMac
  • Reply 4 of 34
    StrangeDaysStrangeDays Posts: 11,764member
    lkrupp said:
    blastdoor said:
    Rational people are already asking if completely destroying the world economy will cause more harm than the virus itself will. There are millions of U.S. workers losing their jobs and those jobs will NOT be coming back after the shutdown is over. The economy will not magically bounce back to where it was pre-Covid-19. My daughter-in-law has been talking to her friends that operate small businesses like nail salons, craft stores and such. They are telling her they are out of business for good, bankrupt, and will not be reopening. Of course the big restaurant chains will survive but the local sandwich shop on the corner is gone for good. Poof!
    Maybe, maybe not. But if your local sandwich shop is gone and it was actually filling a market need, then it follows someone else will open in its spot, and hire people in its spot. That's the way markets work.

    The shut-down is to produce a slow pandemic instead of a fast one, and buys time for survivor immunity study, vaccine work, prophylactic drug work, and increased testing strategies to contain future hot spots from repeated waves of infection. This shores up the herd immunity to acceptable levels.

    Doing nothing ends in millions of deaths, which would also be disruptive to the economy in a myriad of ways.

    For more detail on this, here’s a good video on the pandemic clock cycles for CV-19, and mortality age brackets.

    https://youtu.be/gku7mdTS8cc

    edited March 2020 tmayGeorgeBMac
  • Reply 5 of 34
    gatorguygatorguy Posts: 23,304member
    jcs2305 said:
    lkrupp said:
    blastdoor said:
    Rational people are already asking if completely destroying the world economy will cause more harm than the virus itself will. There are millions of U.S. workers losing their jobs and those jobs will NOT be coming back after the shutdown is over. The economy will not magically bounce back to where it was pre-Covid-19. My daughter-in-law has been talking to her friends that operate small businesses like nail salons, craft stores and such. They are telling her they are out of business for good, bankrupt, and will not be reopening. Of course the big restaurant chains will survive but the local sandwich shop on the corner is gone for good. Poof!

    Bankrupt in a few weeks? Sounds like they may have been having trouble before the shutdowns..no?
    There's a huge difference between "having trouble" and "it's not easy being small".

    I am not expecting much assistance to be available to small businesses who were somewhat successful, turning a small profit, and paying their employees and their bills on time until business completely collapsed either by sudden unexpected lack of demand or by government order. Airlines who should have a financial cushion and wealthy investors as backup? Yeah, they'll get covered by federal grants. Financial and investment companies? They'll get government assistance too. In fact the majority of the federal assistance to come will be going to those who should have had the wherewithal to survive a few months with major investors ready to step up to make sure they remain viable. Big business who already had a lot of wealth have their congressional benefactors.

    Small business like local restaurants, neighborhood bars, home service providers, tradesmen, food wholesalers, local musicians and such will simply be out-of-luck. The money they worked months/years to save to start their own businesses or purchase their own equipment lost through no fault of their own and no one in government will be there to bail them out. They aren't big enough to be important, collateral damage. The big guys get financial protection with perhaps no expectation of repayment, not so for the startups and family businesses. Nothing they owe will be forgiven. Sad stuff.
    edited March 2020 ronn
  • Reply 6 of 34
    blastdoorblastdoor Posts: 2,488member
    lkrupp said:
    blastdoor said:
    Rational people are already asking if completely destroying the world economy will cause more harm than the virus itself will. There are millions of U.S. workers losing their jobs and those jobs will NOT be coming back after the shutdown is over. The economy will not magically bounce back to where it was pre-Covid-19. My daughter-in-law has been talking to her friends that operate small businesses like nail salons, craft stores and such. They are telling her they are out of business for good, bankrupt, and will not be reopening. Of course the big restaurant chains will survive but the local sandwich shop on the corner is gone for good. Poof!
    I've seen estimates of the value of a human life ranging from $2 million to $10 million. So far, a little over 500 people have died in the US, so that's at most a loss of $5 billion which is pretty small compared to the economic harm sustained so far. 

    In Italy they've lost over 6k people, so that's at most a loss of $60 billion. Still probably small compared to the economic loss. 

    But these death totals might still be the tip of the iceberg. Suppose we lose 2 million people in the US, then that's a dollar loss of about $20 trillion. That might be worth preventing. Given how fast it's spreading and that it appears to be hitting young people harder than initially reported, I'm inclined to think the economic cost of containing this thing are worth it. 

    Also -- it doesn't HAVE to be the case that all those businesses fail and jobs never return. That's preventable. It's just a question of whether there is the political will to prevent it. The will appears to exist in France and at the US Federal Reserve, but it's not clear the will exists in Congress or the White House. 
    StrangeDaysGeorgeBMac
  • Reply 7 of 34
    lkrupplkrupp Posts: 9,639member
    jcs2305 said:
    lkrupp said:
    blastdoor said:
    Rational people are already asking if completely destroying the world economy will cause more harm than the virus itself will. There are millions of U.S. workers losing their jobs and those jobs will NOT be coming back after the shutdown is over. The economy will not magically bounce back to where it was pre-Covid-19. My daughter-in-law has been talking to her friends that operate small businesses like nail salons, craft stores and such. They are telling her they are out of business for good, bankrupt, and will not be reopening. Of course the big restaurant chains will survive but the local sandwich shop on the corner is gone for good. Poof!

    Bankrupt in a few weeks? Sounds like they may have been having trouble before the shutdowns..no?

    I am hoping with the leniency from creditors and banks because of what is going on will enable at least some of these small places to come back whenever the shutdown ends and things get back to somewhat normal.. If what you are saying is how it is going to be and not just the situation for some businesses holy shit we are in trouble.. real trouble.. 


    Nice article today about the financial status of American families. 40% cannot come up with $1000.00 in cash in an emergency. 80% live paycheck to paycheck. Small businesses are no different. 
    gatorguy
  • Reply 8 of 34
    Rather than having these factories pump out all Apple things, wouldn't it be better to pump out things we actually need like ventilators? I know there is benefit to Apple devices, but I feel like there are more important things they could be building to help everyone out. Or maybe COVID-19 is just some big hoax and we don't actually need those masks and ventilators?
  • Reply 9 of 34
    blastdoorblastdoor Posts: 2,488member
    boondock said:
    Rather than having these factories pump out all Apple things, wouldn't it be better to pump out things we actually need like ventilators? I know there is benefit to Apple devices, but I feel like there are more important things they could be building to help everyone out. Or maybe COVID-19 is just some big hoax and we don't actually need those masks and ventilators?
    There are a lot of factories in the world and we don't need them all for ventilators. 

    I can think of a few possible government actions:

    0. Do nothing and hope for the best (the libertarian position and the >= 2010 American approach)

    1. national governments decide to suspend (or limit) any patent-costs associated with production of ventilators and then put out an RFP to purchase a large volume on behalf of the nation. The bid that wins is the one that provides the best value (not necessarily the lowest price, mind you) for the government (I lean towards this option -- it's a nice balance between free market and government and it's the 20th century American approach). 

    2. command specific companies with relevant capabilities to produce the ventilators; pay them some "reasonable" compensation (It could work, it's the British/socialist approach, but I don't love it)

    3. fully nationalize the production of ventilators, shoot people who resist (the Soviet approach)
    GeorgeBMac
  • Reply 10 of 34
    StrangeDaysStrangeDays Posts: 11,764member
    The government already has the power to compel US industry to produce what we need. I read today they're talking to US auto makers now to actually do it.
    GeorgeBMac
  • Reply 11 of 34
    blastdoorblastdoor Posts: 2,488member
    The government already has the power to compel US industry to produce what we need. I read today they're talking to US auto makers now to actually do it.
    That would be good news for the automakers -- nobody will be buying cars for a while. 
  • Reply 12 of 34
    lkrupplkrupp Posts: 9,639member
    blastdoor said:
    lkrupp said:
    blastdoor said:
    Rational people are already asking if completely destroying the world economy will cause more harm than the virus itself will. There are millions of U.S. workers losing their jobs and those jobs will NOT be coming back after the shutdown is over. The economy will not magically bounce back to where it was pre-Covid-19. My daughter-in-law has been talking to her friends that operate small businesses like nail salons, craft stores and such. They are telling her they are out of business for good, bankrupt, and will not be reopening. Of course the big restaurant chains will survive but the local sandwich shop on the corner is gone for good. Poof!
    I've seen estimates of the value of a human life ranging from $2 million to $10 million. So far, a little over 500 people have died in the US, so that's at most a loss of $5 billion which is pretty small compared to the economic harm sustained so far. 


    That's a completely absurd statement to make and your extrapolation of that absurdity is even more absurd.

    edited March 2020
  • Reply 13 of 34
    blastdoorblastdoor Posts: 2,488member
    lkrupp said:
    blastdoor said:
    lkrupp said:
    blastdoor said:
    Rational people are already asking if completely destroying the world economy will cause more harm than the virus itself will. There are millions of U.S. workers losing their jobs and those jobs will NOT be coming back after the shutdown is over. The economy will not magically bounce back to where it was pre-Covid-19. My daughter-in-law has been talking to her friends that operate small businesses like nail salons, craft stores and such. They are telling her they are out of business for good, bankrupt, and will not be reopening. Of course the big restaurant chains will survive but the local sandwich shop on the corner is gone for good. Poof!
    I've seen estimates of the value of a human life ranging from $2 million to $10 million. So far, a little over 500 people have died in the US, so that's at most a loss of $5 billion which is pretty small compared to the economic harm sustained so far. 


    That's a completely absurd statement to make and your extrapolation of that absurdity is even more absurd.

    So what value are you placing on human life when you claim that the economic cost of containing the virus is greater than the benefit? What’s your “rational” calculation?

    Im perfectly happy too look at it that way if you are. 
  • Reply 14 of 34
    tmaytmay Posts: 5,498member
    blastdoor said:
    lkrupp said:
    blastdoor said:
    lkrupp said:
    blastdoor said:
    Rational people are already asking if completely destroying the world economy will cause more harm than the virus itself will. There are millions of U.S. workers losing their jobs and those jobs will NOT be coming back after the shutdown is over. The economy will not magically bounce back to where it was pre-Covid-19. My daughter-in-law has been talking to her friends that operate small businesses like nail salons, craft stores and such. They are telling her they are out of business for good, bankrupt, and will not be reopening. Of course the big restaurant chains will survive but the local sandwich shop on the corner is gone for good. Poof!
    I've seen estimates of the value of a human life ranging from $2 million to $10 million. So far, a little over 500 people have died in the US, so that's at most a loss of $5 billion which is pretty small compared to the economic harm sustained so far. 


    That's a completely absurd statement to make and your extrapolation of that absurdity is even more absurd.

    So what value are you placing on human life when you claim that the economic cost of containing the virus is greater than the benefit? What’s your “rational” calculation?

    Im perfectly happy too look at it that way if you are. 
    "In last 24 hrs there've been prominent US voices calling for a stop to social distancing, citing rationale that they're worse than impact of COVID itself. It’s worth looking very closely at that claim, where we are in US COVID epidemic and what happens if we stop. 1/x"

    ...continues at link...



    The U.S. will need another week or two to see how well social distancing works, but experts have plenty of evidence that it does, even in Italy's case.

  • Reply 15 of 34
    boondock said:
    Rather than having these factories pump out all Apple things, wouldn't it be better to pump out things we actually need like ventilators? I know there is benefit to Apple devices, but I feel like there are more important things they could be building to help everyone out. Or maybe COVID-19 is just some big hoax and we don't actually need those masks and ventilators?

    You are being naïve if you think that the same factories that pump out Apple things can immediately start pumping out ventilators. 
    tmaylkrupp
  • Reply 16 of 34
    blastdoorblastdoor Posts: 2,488member
    tmay said:
    blastdoor said:
    lkrupp said:
    blastdoor said:
    lkrupp said:
    blastdoor said:
    Rational people are already asking if completely destroying the world economy will cause more harm than the virus itself will. There are millions of U.S. workers losing their jobs and those jobs will NOT be coming back after the shutdown is over. The economy will not magically bounce back to where it was pre-Covid-19. My daughter-in-law has been talking to her friends that operate small businesses like nail salons, craft stores and such. They are telling her they are out of business for good, bankrupt, and will not be reopening. Of course the big restaurant chains will survive but the local sandwich shop on the corner is gone for good. Poof!
    I've seen estimates of the value of a human life ranging from $2 million to $10 million. So far, a little over 500 people have died in the US, so that's at most a loss of $5 billion which is pretty small compared to the economic harm sustained so far. 


    That's a completely absurd statement to make and your extrapolation of that absurdity is even more absurd.

    So what value are you placing on human life when you claim that the economic cost of containing the virus is greater than the benefit? What’s your “rational” calculation?

    Im perfectly happy too look at it that way if you are. 
    "In last 24 hrs there've been prominent US voices calling for a stop to social distancing, citing rationale that they're worse than impact of COVID itself. It’s worth looking very closely at that claim, where we are in US COVID epidemic and what happens if we stop. 1/x"

    ...continues at link...



    The U.S. will need another week or two to see how well social distancing works, but experts have plenty of evidence that it does, even in Italy's case.

    I think that only hints at some of the factors that need to be considered to make this rational calculation. We need a reasonably detailed economic analysis of the trade offs between the policy options. This is a case where shoot from the hip doesn’t work, regardless of whose hip (doctors, reality tv hosts, or anonymous AI commenters). 

    My initial shot from the was similar to the reality tv guy — I thought the Chinese overreacted. But that was based on media reports that made COVID19 sound like the flu without a vaccine. It now sounds much worse than that, so I’d I can only shoot from the hip, I’d side with the doctors now. 

    We really need better than shoot from the hip, though. We need real analysis, using data and models. 
  • Reply 17 of 34
    tmaytmay Posts: 5,498member
    blastdoor said:
    tmay said:
    blastdoor said:
    lkrupp said:
    blastdoor said:
    lkrupp said:
    blastdoor said:
    Rational people are already asking if completely destroying the world economy will cause more harm than the virus itself will. There are millions of U.S. workers losing their jobs and those jobs will NOT be coming back after the shutdown is over. The economy will not magically bounce back to where it was pre-Covid-19. My daughter-in-law has been talking to her friends that operate small businesses like nail salons, craft stores and such. They are telling her they are out of business for good, bankrupt, and will not be reopening. Of course the big restaurant chains will survive but the local sandwich shop on the corner is gone for good. Poof!
    I've seen estimates of the value of a human life ranging from $2 million to $10 million. So far, a little over 500 people have died in the US, so that's at most a loss of $5 billion which is pretty small compared to the economic harm sustained so far. 


    That's a completely absurd statement to make and your extrapolation of that absurdity is even more absurd.

    So what value are you placing on human life when you claim that the economic cost of containing the virus is greater than the benefit? What’s your “rational” calculation?

    Im perfectly happy too look at it that way if you are. 
    "In last 24 hrs there've been prominent US voices calling for a stop to social distancing, citing rationale that they're worse than impact of COVID itself. It’s worth looking very closely at that claim, where we are in US COVID epidemic and what happens if we stop. 1/x"

    ...continues at link...



    The U.S. will need another week or two to see how well social distancing works, but experts have plenty of evidence that it does, even in Italy's case.

    I think that only hints at some of the factors that need to be considered to make this rational calculation. We need a reasonably detailed economic analysis of the trade offs between the policy options. This is a case where shoot from the hip doesn’t work, regardless of whose hip (doctors, reality tv hosts, or anonymous AI commenters). 

    My initial shot from the was similar to the reality tv guy — I thought the Chinese overreacted. But that was based on media reports that made COVID19 sound like the flu without a vaccine. It now sounds much worse than that, so I’d I can only shoot from the hip, I’d side with the doctors now. 

    We really need better than shoot from the hip, though. We need real analysis, using data and models. 
    FFS, a few people here, myself included were warning about this from the last week in January, when China announced the outbreak, and we were trashed for spreading "fear". I found out about it earlier than that reading sites that tracked national security. 

    Everything that played out in China, South Korea, Singapore, Italy, and Spain, was happening weeks before the U.S., and people still sat on their hands. What more data did you need at that time? How "rational" are you people for ignoring what was right in front of you, by extrapolation?

    But of course, now you want more data to make the decision. 

    Weak sauce.

    https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1242282560106958854.html

    "There’s a strong and understandable desire to return to better times and a functioning economy. But it should not be lost on anyone that there's no such thing as a functioning economy and society so long as covid-19 continues to spread uncontrolled in our biggest cities. 
    So long as covid-19 spreads uncontrolled, older people will die in historic numbers, middle aged folks doomed to prolonged ICU stays to fight for their lives, hospitals will be overwhelmed, and most Americans terrified to leave homes, eat out, take the subway, or go to the park. 

    The only way to return to a stable economy and restore our liberty, is to end epidemic spread of covid-19. We need a massive effort to offset the hardship of these efforts, and the public health costs they impose, as there are more than economic costs to the measures we're taking 
    But there's no functioning healthcare with hospitals overwhelmed, no return to work with people terrified of a virus raging uncontrolled. There are two ways to end this. Let a vast swath of people catch covid which is unthinkable, or break the epidemic. We must choose the latter.

    This pathogen brought China to a standstill, with perhaps greater lethality than Spanish Flu. Many middle-aged people are suffering long stays in ICU and survive only after weeks of critical care. Make no mistake about it, this pathogen spares nobody, except thankfully the young. 
    There's no easy return. We must accept a sober truth. This pathogen has altered history and changed our world. But it caught us at a time when we have the public health tools, technology, and know how to defeat it quickly and vanquish it for good.

    We must stay on the battlefield."
    edited March 2020
  • Reply 18 of 34
    blastdoorblastdoor Posts: 2,488member
    tmay said:
    FFS, a few people here, myself included were warning about this from the last week in January, when China announced the outbreak, and we were trashed for spreading "fear". I found out about it earlier than that reading sites that tracked national security. 

    Everything that played out in China, South Korea, Singapore, Italy, and Spain, was happening weeks before the U.S., and people still sat on their hands. What more data did you need at that time? How "rational" are you people for ignoring what was right in front of you, by extrapolation?

    But of course, now you want more data to make the decision. 

    Weak sauce.


    Yes, you did tell us so. You appear to have been right. I appear to have been wrong. Congratulations. Well done. In many ways, you are a living god. People should throw little rose petals at you as you walk down the street. You're so smart, so popular, so beloved. 

    But I disagree that it's wrong to base decisions on data. When I talk about the need for data and models to inform decisions, I'm really talking about what policy makers can and should do (could and should have done). 

    I'm not on the Senate intelligence committee. I don't work at the CIA, CDC, or White House. The only information I have available to me is what the US Infotainment industry serves up. The Infotainment industry was saying that this virus produces "flu-like" symptoms; that 80% of cases are "mild"; etc. I also know that the Chinese government is a highly dubious source of information, and that it's hard to infer truth from their actions. 

    Once the virus got out of China and started hitting open societies, though, it became much more apparent -- even through the Infotainment providers -- that this isn't the flu and that what some people call "mild" is not what I would call mild. While some people get this and are asymptomatic, others are hit very, very hard. A co-worker's 38 year old sister with no prior conditions caught this thing and felt like she was going to die. She says it's the sickest she's ever been and the recovery has been very slow. That's not what I'd call "flu-like" or "mild". That's the kind of information that I was not getting back in January.

    Based on the info available to me now, I strongly lean in the direction of taking the economic hit in order to contain this thing. But I recognize that I'm still not on the Senate Intelligence committee, etc -- I'm not the policy maker, this isn't my call to make. But I think the people who do need to make this call should make it based on a careful analysis of data, not shoot-from-the-hip-ism. Unfortunately, I think shoot-from-the-hip is all that the Reality TV star knows. 
  • Reply 19 of 34
    tmaytmay Posts: 5,498member
    blastdoor said:
    tmay said:
    FFS, a few people here, myself included were warning about this from the last week in January, when China announced the outbreak, and we were trashed for spreading "fear". I found out about it earlier than that reading sites that tracked national security. 

    Everything that played out in China, South Korea, Singapore, Italy, and Spain, was happening weeks before the U.S., and people still sat on their hands. What more data did you need at that time? How "rational" are you people for ignoring what was right in front of you, by extrapolation?

    But of course, now you want more data to make the decision. 

    Weak sauce.


    Yes, you did tell us so. You appear to have been right. I appear to have been wrong. Congratulations. Well done. In many ways, you are a living god. People should throw little rose petals at you as you walk down the street. You're so smart, so popular, so beloved. 

    But I disagree that it's wrong to base decisions on data. When I talk about the need for data and models to inform decisions, I'm really talking about what policy makers can and should do (could and should have done). 

    I'm not on the Senate intelligence committee. I don't work at the CIA, CDC, or White House. The only information I have available to me is what the US Infotainment industry serves up. The Infotainment industry was saying that this virus produces "flu-like" symptoms; that 80% of cases are "mild"; etc. I also know that the Chinese government is a highly dubious source of information, and that it's hard to infer truth from their actions. 

    Once the virus got out of China and started hitting open societies, though, it became much more apparent -- even through the Infotainment providers -- that this isn't the flu and that what some people call "mild" is not what I would call mild. While some people get this and are asymptomatic, others are hit very, very hard. A co-worker's 38 year old sister with no prior conditions caught this thing and felt like she was going to die. She says it's the sickest she's ever been and the recovery has been very slow. That's not what I'd call "flu-like" or "mild". That's the kind of information that I was not getting back in January.

    Based on the info available to me now, I strongly lean in the direction of taking the economic hit in order to contain this thing. But I recognize that I'm still not on the Senate Intelligence committee, etc -- I'm not the policy maker, this isn't my call to make. But I think the people who do need to make this call should make it based on a careful analysis of data, not shoot-from-the-hip-ism. Unfortunately, I think shoot-from-the-hip is all that the Reality TV star knows. 
    Watch Italy. They had a horrendous start, and now they are trending better. The Urban areas in the U.S. will follow this pattern with the current mitigations in place, so give it time.

    You should also be aware that younger people that catch this, may end up having life long complications, so consider all of the medical data, not just the deaths.
  • Reply 20 of 34
    blastdoorblastdoor Posts: 2,488member
    tmay said:
    blastdoor said:
    tmay said:
    FFS, a few people here, myself included were warning about this from the last week in January, when China announced the outbreak, and we were trashed for spreading "fear". I found out about it earlier than that reading sites that tracked national security. 

    Everything that played out in China, South Korea, Singapore, Italy, and Spain, was happening weeks before the U.S., and people still sat on their hands. What more data did you need at that time? How "rational" are you people for ignoring what was right in front of you, by extrapolation?

    But of course, now you want more data to make the decision. 

    Weak sauce.


    Yes, you did tell us so. You appear to have been right. I appear to have been wrong. Congratulations. Well done. In many ways, you are a living god. People should throw little rose petals at you as you walk down the street. You're so smart, so popular, so beloved. 

    But I disagree that it's wrong to base decisions on data. When I talk about the need for data and models to inform decisions, I'm really talking about what policy makers can and should do (could and should have done). 

    I'm not on the Senate intelligence committee. I don't work at the CIA, CDC, or White House. The only information I have available to me is what the US Infotainment industry serves up. The Infotainment industry was saying that this virus produces "flu-like" symptoms; that 80% of cases are "mild"; etc. I also know that the Chinese government is a highly dubious source of information, and that it's hard to infer truth from their actions. 

    Once the virus got out of China and started hitting open societies, though, it became much more apparent -- even through the Infotainment providers -- that this isn't the flu and that what some people call "mild" is not what I would call mild. While some people get this and are asymptomatic, others are hit very, very hard. A co-worker's 38 year old sister with no prior conditions caught this thing and felt like she was going to die. She says it's the sickest she's ever been and the recovery has been very slow. That's not what I'd call "flu-like" or "mild". That's the kind of information that I was not getting back in January.

    Based on the info available to me now, I strongly lean in the direction of taking the economic hit in order to contain this thing. But I recognize that I'm still not on the Senate Intelligence committee, etc -- I'm not the policy maker, this isn't my call to make. But I think the people who do need to make this call should make it based on a careful analysis of data, not shoot-from-the-hip-ism. Unfortunately, I think shoot-from-the-hip is all that the Reality TV star knows. 
    Watch Italy. They had a horrendous start, and now they are trending better. The Urban areas in the U.S. will follow this pattern with the current mitigations in place, so give it time.

    You should also be aware that younger people that catch this, may end up having life long complications, so consider all of the medical data, not just the deaths.
    Another consideration is that if hospitals are full of COVID patients then others will be crowded out. I imagine now is not a good time to have a heart attack in Italy. 
    tmay
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