Mac shipments down 21% year-on-year in global PC market shrink

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in Current Mac Hardware
Mac shipments declined in the first quarter of 2020, analysts claim, but while PC shipments overall went down by 8% year-on-year, Apple's annual decline in the PC market is more than double that of the global average.




During the global coronavirus pandemic, the demand for computers to work from home has soared, as people and companies try to replicate their working conditions within the safety of their house or apartment. Despite this, issues at production facilities related to COVID-19 meant firms couldn't gear up production to match the demand, and even hurt the industry as a whole.

In an analysis from Canalys, global PC shipments fall by 8% year-on-year for the first quarter, a drop from 58.3 million units in Q1 2019 to 53.7 million for the same period in 2020.

Of the top five vendors monitored by Canalys, Apple was the worst hit in the deceleration, with the drop from 4 million units in Q1 2019 to 3.2 million in Q1 2020 representing a decline of 21% year-on-year. It also represents a contraction in market share, from 7% in the 2019 quarter to 6% in 2020, but Apple still manages to maintain its fourth-place position on the chart.




"The PC industry has been boosted by the global COVID-19 lockdown, with products flying off the shelves throughout Q1," said Canalys research director Rushabh Doshi. "But PC makers started 2020 with a constrained supply of Intel processors, caused by a botched transition to 10nm nodes. This was exacerbated when factories in China were unable to reopen after the lunar new year holidays."

Apple's YoY percentage decline is by far the largest among vendors, with second-place HP being the nearest with an annual shrinkage of 13.8%, followed by fifth-place Ace at 12.6% down. First place Lenovo saw annual growth drop 4.4%, but it managed to gain market share, from 23% to 23.9%.

The main beneficiary is Dell, which is in third place on the chart. By seeing annual growth of 1.1% in the quarter, Dell's market share for the period increased from 17.8% for Q1 2019 to 19.6% in Q1 2020.

Canalys analyst Ishan Dutt warns that, while the production constraints will probably ease in Q2, at the same time the demand for computers in Q1 is unlikely to be sustained for very long, and with a dreary outlook for the rest of the year. "Few businesses will be spending on technology for their offices, while many homes will have been freshly equipped," Dutt suggests.

It remains to be seen how other elements of Apple's empire will fare with the ongoing medical crisis, but early reports suggested some areas may do surprisingly well. In February, it's as reported there was an increased demand for tablets in a traditionally "slow season" for the products, which may help raise iPad sales.

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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 65
    avon b7avon b7 Posts: 7,624member
    As long as there is some kind of event (exceptional in this case) that explains the decline with regards to the real demand, there is nothing to be concerned about. Those who needed a computer and had to rush to get one for teleworking had no incentive to get a comparatively expensive Mac for the tasks required of them.

    With the recent adjustments in pricing of the Air and the rumoured MBP13 with better keyboards, demand should even itself out with supply if production and logistics get back to normal levels.

    If the drop is confirmed relative to PC shipments, I don't think it will be indicative of anything substantial. 
    muthuk_vanalingamgilly33
  • Reply 2 of 65
    tedz98tedz98 Posts: 80member
    Apple’s market share is minuscule. Their overall pricing is higher than PC’s. Overall Apple’s products are of a higher quality, but you pay a premium for that. In a recession price sensitivity increases and I would predict demand for all of Apple’s products, including iPhones, will decrease significantly. The PC world is still dominated by Windows. The growth of cloud services should increase the ability of Apple to sell product in the corporate world, but the price premium may ultimately hinder that.
    elijahgflyingdpmuthuk_vanalingammike54
  • Reply 3 of 65
    The crazy movements in the GBP/USD exchange rate hasn't helped at all. I was going to buy a 16in MBP but the day before I was going to order it the price went up by 10%. Price rise = No order.
    Now, I'm keeping my spending down to an absolute minimum. None of us have any real idea as to when this pandemic will be over and we can be sure that the light at the end of the tunnel really isn't another pandemic on its was to decimate us.
    WTimbermanelijahgrusswgilly33ElCapitanmuthuk_vanalingam
  • Reply 4 of 65
    tedz98 said:
    Apple’s market share is minuscule. Their overall pricing is higher than PC’s. Overall Apple’s products are of a higher quality, but you pay a premium for that. In a recession price sensitivity increases and I would predict demand for all of Apple’s products, including iPhones, will decrease significantly. The PC world is still dominated by Windows. The growth of cloud services should increase the ability of Apple to sell product in the corporate world, but the price premium may ultimately hinder that.
    Yes, Windows 10 is good, and Windows Azure, Office 365, etc., are ever better, ever cheaper. Yes the Windows Surface line is great if you're a Windows user. Yes, generic Windows PCs are also even better, even cheaper (relatively) than they were in the oh-so-long-ago 1990s. If you're also a Google Docs and Android user (whoopie, choices!) you're presumptively, arguably, demonstrably well integrated. On the other hand, nothing, I repeat nothing, is as well-integrated as Apple's hardware/software ecosystem. When I'm in the zone -- iPhone, iPad Pro, iMac, and Apple Watch all engaged -- it's as though the machine-human interface of the future is already here. Check out Federico Viticci's well-documented adventures with the iPad Pro if you don't believe me. Silly fanboy differences aside, the future is looking brighter than ever, closer than ever, to Richard Brautigan's "Machines of Loving Grace."
    MacQcelijahgnubusmuthuk_vanalingamlkruppwatto_cobra
  • Reply 5 of 65
    elijahgelijahg Posts: 2,753member
    It's almost all down to price. Macs (outside the US at least) are very expensive. Yes the hardware lasts a long time, and once upon a time macOS support would way outlast the time Windows would run reasonably on PCs - 3ish years at most. Nowadays Windows 10 runs just fine on old Macs that Apple has long since dropped support for. My 2009(!) MacBook is stuck on 10.13 but runs Win 10 fine - though drivers are an issue as Apple doesn't support Win10 on this machine. Unfortunately macOS isn't orders of magnitude better than Windows anymore, Windows has come a long way since the XP and Vista days. The Apple tax seems to be increasing for a ever decreasing value of the macOS. The hardware is great, second to none, and the integration between Apple services and macOS is good. But most people just can't afford to spend £1000+ on a computer, and especially now when even low-end computers are quick enough for most people, people can't justify spending double for an Apple logo and the macOS. Especially since Apple's motto these days seems to be to remove more features from macOS than they add - I remember more things that're missing than have been added in the past few iterations.

    Many here were saying the price of the iPhone wasn't the reason sales dipped, but then Apple dropped the price of the iPhone and they sold more than ever before. So trying to claim price isn't a huge factor is entirely false.
    avon b7flyingdpmuthuk_vanalingamrevenantmike54
  • Reply 6 of 65
    elijahgelijahg Posts: 2,753member
    tedz98 said:
    Apple’s market share is minuscule. Their overall pricing is higher than PC’s. Overall Apple’s products are of a higher quality, but you pay a premium for that. In a recession price sensitivity increases and I would predict demand for all of Apple’s products, including iPhones, will decrease significantly. The PC world is still dominated by Windows. The growth of cloud services should increase the ability of Apple to sell product in the corporate world, but the price premium may ultimately hinder that.
    Their lack of serious support on the Mac for corporate users also doesn't help. macOS server is now just an app that handles mobile profiles and not much else, whereas it used to be fully featured. It was brilliant in schools, now it's a real fudge to set things up and administer.
    sailorpaulElCapitanmike54
  • Reply 7 of 65
    looplessloopless Posts: 325member
    Our company is a heavy buyer of Dell workstations and laptops. Without exception that are unmitigated pieces of junk that barely last 2 years. The number of failures we have with Dells is tragic and they are just poorly designed built to a price throw away crap. Compared to the amazing longevity of Apple hardware there is no comparison. Just helped a friend replace his perfectly functional 2008 MacBook Pro. My 2014 27” iMac is a joy to use.
    cat52lkruppStrangeDayswatto_cobra
  • Reply 8 of 65
    mwhitemwhite Posts: 287member
    avon b7 said:
    As long as there is some kind of event (exceptional in this case) that explains the decline with regards to the real demand, there is nothing to be concerned about. Those who needed a computer and had to rush to get one for teleworking had no incentive to get a comparatively expensive Mac for the tasks required of them.

    With the recent adjustments in pricing of the Air and the rumoured MBP13 with better keyboards, demand should even itself out with supply if production and logistics get back to normal levels.

    If the drop is confirmed relative to PC shipments, I don't think it will be indicative of anything substantial. 

    I have a 2020 Air on order, I ordered it 1 week ago it will be 1-2 more weeks before delivery.
    watto_cobra
  • Reply 9 of 65
    I did my part and recently bought a MacPro to replace my no longer well-supported but otherwise still functioning 2009 model. Incidentally I wanted to wait until the W5700X GPU was available but I broke down and sprung for the 32gb option. I wanted some future proofing and the 32gb is far more than necessary for my needs but it’s very unclear when the 16gb GPU will be available. Can’t wait to get this bad boy up and running.
    watto_cobra
  • Reply 10 of 65
    charlesncharlesn Posts: 820member
    The cratering of sales by 21% doesn't pass the smell test without further information. I'm not saying it couldn't have happened, but you don't get a drop that steep "just because." And this would hardly be the first time that an analytic company forecast quarterly doom for Apple, only to have that forecast disproven when actual numbers come in. Apple, in its entire history, has never competed in the no profit, high volume crapola end of the market, so nothing new there, and it did extremely well through the Great Recession. In Oct of 2008, Apple's share price was $15 and it rose steadily through the entire recession to nearly $100 by April of 2012. Additionally, the products now at the low end of Apple's price range--Macbook Air, the cheaper iMacs, the Mac mini--have never offered greater value and all compare very favorably to PCs at that price point. 

    All these years later, I'm amazed that people--including some who've posted in this thread--STILL don't get that volume sales without strong profitability mean nothing. Thirteen years after its debut, I'm still reading "blah, blah, blah" about iPhones being too expensive... and meanwhile, Apple took 68% of GLOBAL mobile phone profits last year, with Samsung its nearest competitor at 17%, and every other company fighting for the leftover profit scraps. So much for high volume sales. 
    montrosemacscat52watto_cobra
  • Reply 11 of 65
    tommy65tommy65 Posts: 56member
    This is a perfect time to replace Intel wit ARM/ Apple home brewing CPU’s. And GPU’s. Try and you may I say!
    watto_cobra
  • Reply 12 of 65
    rossb2rossb2 Posts: 89member
    The crazy movements in the GBP/USD exchange rate hasn't helped at all. I was going to buy a 16in MBP but the day before I was going to order it the price went up by 10%. Price rise = No order.
    Now, I'm keeping my spending down to an absolute minimum. None of us have any real idea as to when this pandemic will be over and we can be sure that the light at the end of the tunnel really isn't another pandemic on its was to decimate us.
    Fortunately Mac Mini 2020 prices are still at 2018 levels, even with the exchange rate difference. I bought the UK 2020 model last week.
    watto_cobra
  • Reply 13 of 65
    avon b7avon b7 Posts: 7,624member
    charlesn said:
    The cratering of sales by 21% doesn't pass the smell test without further information. I'm not saying it couldn't have happened, but you don't get a drop that steep "just because." And this would hardly be the first time that an analytic company forecast quarterly doom for Apple, only to have that forecast disproven when actual numbers come in. Apple, in its entire history, has never competed in the no profit, high volume crapola end of the market, so nothing new there, and it did extremely well through the Great Recession. In Oct of 2008, Apple's share price was $15 and it rose steadily through the entire recession to nearly $100 by April of 2012. Additionally, the products now at the low end of Apple's price range--Macbook Air, the cheaper iMacs, the Mac mini--have never offered greater value and all compare very favorably to PCs at that price point. 

    All these years later, I'm amazed that people--including some who've posted in this thread--STILL don't get that volume sales without strong profitability mean nothing. Thirteen years after its debut, I'm still reading "blah, blah, blah" about iPhones being too expensive... and meanwhile, Apple took 68% of GLOBAL mobile phone profits last year, with Samsung its nearest competitor at 17%, and every other company fighting for the leftover profit scraps. So much for high volume sales. 
    Please define 'strong profitability'. 

    Having the lion's share of profit is irrelevant if you aren't doing much with it compared to competitors who are doing more (even though their profits are less) .

    If you are pumping huge amounts into R&D from your revenues, that will have an impact on your overall profitability but your devices/services could see the benefits of that all the same in spite of leading to lower potential profits in some situations.

    Does that mean having the most profits is actually relevant from a consumer perspective? Not at all.

    Consumers only really need to care about the products they are buying and the price they are willing to pay, not how profitable a company is. 

    The consumer draws that line (price) but profits (in the sense of who makes the most) are not relevant. 

    What is relevant is if your business is healthy enough to keep things going. 

    Just like Samsung or Huawei, HP, or whoever. 

    In this case, I very much doubt Mac prices are the cause of such a large potential falloff in sales. It is just possibly a huge (hopefully short lived blip) due to the coronavirus. 

    The swing probably favoured lower priced manufacturers in this particular situation, which is fully understandable. 


    elijahgmuthuk_vanalingam
  • Reply 14 of 65
    esummersesummers Posts: 953member
    This shouldn't be too surprising since the number 1 purchase right now is cheap windows laptops for people who normally would not be allowed to work from home.  You can tell this is having a strong effect because Dell gained marketshare.  Their customer mix is almost all business.
    edited April 2020
  • Reply 15 of 65
    esummersesummers Posts: 953member
    charlesn said:
    The cratering of sales by 21% doesn't pass the smell test without further information. I'm not saying it couldn't have happened, but you don't get a drop that steep "just because." And this would hardly be the first time that an analytic company forecast quarterly doom for Apple, only to have that forecast disproven when actual numbers come in. Apple, in its entire history, has never competed in the no profit, high volume crapola end of the market, so nothing new there, and it did extremely well through the Great Recession. In Oct of 2008, Apple's share price was $15 and it rose steadily through the entire recession to nearly $100 by April of 2012. Additionally, the products now at the low end of Apple's price range--Macbook Air, the cheaper iMacs, the Mac mini--have never offered greater value and all compare very favorably to PCs at that price point. 

    All these years later, I'm amazed that people--including some who've posted in this thread--STILL don't get that volume sales without strong profitability mean nothing. Thirteen years after its debut, I'm still reading "blah, blah, blah" about iPhones being too expensive... and meanwhile, Apple took 68% of GLOBAL mobile phone profits last year, with Samsung its nearest competitor at 17%, and every other company fighting for the leftover profit scraps. So much for high volume sales. 
    This is different than 2008.  Apple products are generally used by employees–executives, software developers, and creatives–that are more recession proof.  We are not in a normal recession right now.  Companies are not receiving any non-essential product or following normal hiring practices.  Mac purchases will rebound (probably with pent up demand) after this epidemic.  It makes sense that most business purchases are slanted toward the imminent need of getting people like phone support, etc. that were on NUC style PCs before working from home.  As nice as it would be to see some of these positions on Mac or iPad, it just isn't the reality.  When this is over, corporate PC purchases will probably move the other way since they have additional devices.
    edited April 2020
  • Reply 16 of 65
    loopless said:
    Our company is a heavy buyer of Dell workstations and laptops. Without exception that are unmitigated pieces of junk that barely last 2 years. The number of failures we have with Dells is tragic and they are just poorly designed built to a price throw away crap. Compared to the amazing longevity of Apple hardware there is no comparison. Just helped a friend replace his perfectly functional 2008 MacBook Pro. My 2014 27” iMac is a joy to use.
    Shockingly none of my several former workplaces that used Dell had similar experiences. Case in point: my Iast Dell worked fine for 8 years until the power unit died. I inherited it from someone else when I started, used it until it was time for a refresh and they just gave it to me, and it was my main home laptop for 3 more years. Similarly if you go on the many Windows forums, none of them report such problems with Dells. Including - gasp! - your job. Because look ... if Dells were nearly as bad as you claim your company would have gone out of business long ago.

    Look, I know that you like and prefer Macs - I cannot blame you as my work issued 13 inch MBPro is the single most favorite laptop that I have ever owned or used and my #4 favorite among all tech devices I have ever owned behind my NES, my Sony Walkman and my Samsung Galaxy Mega smartphone - but there is no reason to just make up stuff. Windows, Android, ChromeOS etc. would never succeed in the marketplace if they were half as bad as Apple fans claim that they are. The funny thing is that it is mostly one-sided. Few Windows, Android or ChromeOS users bash Apple products, and when they do 99% of it is either price or because the devices are a bit more locked down than they prefer, i.e. perfectly valid - and actually accurate - economic or tech reasons. But go to the Apple forums and it is endless trashing of users of other platforms simply for the crime of merely existing. And for the vast majority of them it is easy to tell that they have never seriously used - or used at all - the devices they are trashing. 
    edited April 2020 avon b7elijahgmuthuk_vanalingammike54
  • Reply 17 of 65
    esummers said:
    This shouldn't be too surprising since the number 1 purchase right now is cheap windows laptops for people who normally would not be allowed to work from home.  You can tell this is having a strong effect because Dell gained marketshare.  Their customer mix is almost all business.
    I guarantee you that no one is buying cheap Windows laptops because those things are useless for work. If you think that you can keep 3 or 4 applications going at the same time (especially if one of them is Chrome) - or even 1 application if it is a real resource hog like Excel - on a device that has anything less than an Intel i5 (or AMD equivalent) and 8 GB of RAM then you are sadly misguided.

    To put it another way, no one is going to buy any Windows device for work purposes that has inferior specs to, say, a MacBook Air. It is just that a Lenovo, Dell or HP with $999 MBA specs will cost about $650 and an Acer or Asus with MBA specs can be had for $500. So while you might call them "cheap" they actually do have the same CPU, integrated graphics card, RAM module etc. as the MBA does with the real differences likely being the screen - and even that is going to be 1080p as opposed to the 1366x768 that you will see on actual cheap Windows devices - plus the lack of USB Type C ports and of course it is going to be maybe twice as thick build wise.
    elijahgElCapitanmuthuk_vanalingamwatto_cobra
  • Reply 18 of 65
    gatorguygatorguy Posts: 24,176member
    loopless said:
    Our company is a heavy buyer of Dell workstations and laptops. Without exception that are unmitigated pieces of junk that barely last 2 years. The number of failures we have with Dells is tragic and they are just poorly designed built to a price throw away crap. Compared to the amazing longevity of Apple hardware there is no comparison. Just helped a friend replace his perfectly functional 2008 MacBook Pro. My 2014 27” iMac is a joy to use.
    Your experience is just the opposite of ours. I don't remember any Dell computer in our company failing "after just two years", and in fact we're just now in the process of replacing one in accounting that's been in service for 14 years. Others in the company are as much as 9 years old and show no signs of failure. Heck we just upgraded two of those almost decade old machines to Win10 without issue, and I think there's one or two more older Win7 computers to do. 
    edited April 2020 elijahgmuthuk_vanalingammike54chemengin1
  • Reply 19 of 65
    chasmchasm Posts: 3,275member
    This report is unlikely to be correct, for three reasons:

    1. Canalys has zero track record on accurate predictions.

    2. At least in the US and Canada, lockdowns came very late in the day, so sales in the first two months wouldn’t have been affected.

    3. Admittedly a small sample, but my checks with computer retailers in my town suggest that March saw a run on purchases of iPad, iPad Pro, and various MacBooks as people prepared for online classes and meetings and working from home.

    I’m not doubting the industry will suffer compared to “normal,” but the idea that Apple is doing nearly three times as badly as the industry average is pretty laughable.
    edited April 2020 lkruppwatto_cobra
  • Reply 20 of 65
    gatorguy said:
    loopless said:
    Our company is a heavy buyer of Dell workstations and laptops. Without exception that are unmitigated pieces of junk that barely last 2 years. The number of failures we have with Dells is tragic and they are just poorly designed built to a price throw away crap. Compared to the amazing longevity of Apple hardware there is no comparison. Just helped a friend replace his perfectly functional 2008 MacBook Pro. My 2014 27” iMac is a joy to use.
    Your experience is just the opposite of ours. I don't remember any Dell computer in our company failing "after just two years", and in fact we're just now in the process of replacing one in accounting that's been in service for 14 years. Others in the company are as much as 9 years old and show no signs of failure. Heck we just upgraded two of those almost decade old machines to Win10 without issue, and I think there's one or two more older Win7 computers to do. 
    Exactly. What this guy failed to realize when he threw that out there: the Windows PC business is extremely competitive, a shark tank with like 8-10 companies with excellent R&D and marketing departments fighting over what for most of them are tiny margins. And enterprise/home consumers have none of the loyalty that they did maybe 20-25 years ago when companies had the "we only wear Brooks Bros, drive Mercedes and use IBM here." These days if another Windows manufacturer comes along with a better deal they'll switch without batting an eye. So if Dells actually were that bad or even close, his company would have switched to Lenovo or HP long ago. 
    edited April 2020 elijahgmuthuk_vanalingammike54chemengin1
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