iPad sales predicted to slump in 2020 amid wider PC and tablet market dip

AppleInsider

New data from market research firm Canalys points to a severe drop in PC and tablet sales over the course of 2020 due to an economic recession fueled by the ongoing coronavirus.

According to Canalys, PC and tablet shipments are expected to tally a collective 367.8 million units in 2020, down 7% from 395.6 million units in 2019. The market will remain flat in 2021 and return to growth in 2022 at a rate of 2% year-on-year, the firm said.

With the COVID-19 curve flattening in major markets around the world, and the Chinese supply chain largely revived, Canalys predicts pent-up demand in remote learning, education and other segments to drive year-over-year growth in the second and third quarters of 2020. A dip in the fourth quarter is expected to give way to a return to growth in the first quarter of 2021.

Tablets remain an area of weakness, however, as products like iPad and competing devices are deemed as "non-essential" items, the firm said. In the U.S., Canalys believes that if the economy does not recover, consumers will "move away from discretionary spending" on products like iPad at the end of the year.

The prediction comes as an increasing number of businesses and individuals invest in laptops and desktops for remote work duties.

"COVID-19 has given the PC industry a boost. Despite the progress that smartphones and tablets have made in recent years, the need for a high-performance mobile computing device has never been more pronounced," said Rushabh Doshi, Canalys Research Director.

Remote learning programs are expected to drive sales of Chromebooks in the coming months, an area in which Apple competes with its iPad in Education initiative. Apple's solution is more expensive on the whole when compared to setups using Chromebook hardware, an important factor for schools to consider during an economic crisis.

When Apple reported earnings for its second fiscal quarter of 2020, the company noted a slight decrease in year-over-year Mac revenue, from $5.5 billion to $5.4 billion. The tech giant's tablet sector suffered a more substantial blow, dropping from $4.9 billion in 2019 to $4.4 billion during the three-month period ending in March.

It should be noted that firms like Canalys do not have insight into Apple's supply or retail chains and provide estimates based on independent research. The methodology, and more importantly results, of market research firms have been brought into question in the past, with Apple executives dismissing predictions as largely incorrect.

hentaiboy

I have it on good authority that a Japanese manufacturer will release a product next year that makes iPad look like an Apple Newton.

You heard it here first.

Rayz2016

New data from market research firm Canalys points to a severe drop in PC and tablet sales over the course of 2020 due to an economic recession fueled by the ongoing coronavirus.

Can’t be that many jobs where you’re paid good money for stating the obvious.

GeorgeBMac

Rayz2016 said:

New data from market research firm Canalys points to a severe drop in PC and tablet sales over the course of 2020 due to an economic recession fueled by the ongoing coronavirus.

Can’t be that many jobs where you’re paid good money for stating the obvious.

That "obvious" may be based on the fatal error of only looking at one side of the coin:  Telemedicine, remote learning and remote work will increase the demand for tech devices.   Will that be offset by a recession?   My suspicion is that some industries (like entertainment, travel and leisure) will be hard hit while others chug along.   In other words, we will be seeing a significant realignment rather than an across the board recession.

GeorgeBMac

If ever Apple is to strike and enter the education system now is the time.

Predictions all point to an expansion of remote learning in the summer and fall -- an expansion that will become a permanent part of education.

To date, Google and Microsoft have completely dominated the education scene.   Apple dipped a toe into the market when they introduced the iPad Gen 6 but since then has not appeared to do much.   This is an important market as young people are being taught and conditioned to use Google and Microsoft products to the point where they may feel comfortable using those products and not something like MacOS where they lack familiarity.  While public education may not be profitable for Apple it could be beneficial over the long term.

And, now that the iPad can use a cursor, the iPad can double as both a tablet and a laptop.   That makes it a much better buy for cash strapped school districts.

neilm

And yet we’ve also read stories about robust iPad sales during the pandemic as people discover that such devices are indeed essential.

damn_its_hot

GeorgeBMac said:

If ever Apple is to strike and enter the education system now is the time....

...Apple dipped a toe into the market when they introduced the iPad Gen 6 but since then has not appeared to do much.... ...And, now that the iPad can use a cursor, the iPad can double as both a tablet and a laptop.   That makes it a much better buy for cash strapped school districts.

So you haven’t looked at Apple’s Education system that’s allows for a very broad model for students/teachers eh?

 I think Apple has created a great platform with their combo of hardware (that is far superior to a plastic toy like device) and software frameworks that will allow teachers to present & manage materials in ways that will take teachers w/a passion to learn to program (as if they didn’t have enough to do already).

The other great thing about using Apple’s prod’s is they can start with b4 public school and move all the way thru college using it (no - not the same device) while being able to use for Education stuff as well as other stuff on internet thus having access to all that is out there instead of having to use Chromecrash!

GeorgeBMac

damn_its_hot said:

GeorgeBMac said:

If ever Apple is to strike and enter the education system now is the time....

...Apple dipped a toe into the market when they introduced the iPad Gen 6 but since then has not appeared to do much.... ...And, now that the iPad can use a cursor, the iPad can double as both a tablet and a laptop.   That makes it a much better buy for cash strapped school districts.

So you haven’t looked at Apple’s Education system that’s allows for a very broad model for students/teachers eh?

 I think Apple has created a great platform with their combo of hardware (that is far superior to a plastic toy like device) and software frameworks that will allow teachers to present & manage materials in ways that will take teachers w/a passion to learn to program (as if they didn’t have enough to do already).

The other great thing about using Apple’s prod’s is they can start with b4 public school and move all the way thru college using it (no - not the same device) while being able to use for Education stuff as well as other stuff on internet thus having access to all that is out there instead of having to use Chromecrash!

They did a nice presentation of that stuff when they introduced the iPad 6 -- but have neither heard nor seen any meaningful adoption of it by the education system.

Google classroom and Edge & Chrome seem to be the dominant players.

dewme

I think there is an opportunity in the educational market for whomever can deliver a mobile-friendly and remote-learning-friendly system that actually works effectively. The Covid-19 pandemic was/is a stress test and reality check that assessed whether some of the current generation of tools really work. From what I'm seeing and hearing from educators it was pretty much a failure for the students and a miserable failure for the parents. 

Companies like Apple do recognize that their devices are only there to augment the traditional curriculum. They go to great lengths to ensure that their devices and associated lesson plans are folded into the existing curriculum in a way that improves, expands, and augments the existing programs. Apple and others never intended for their device centric learning apparatus to replace existing programs in their entirety any more than Zoom ever saw itself as a virtual classroom that could substitute for the real thing. 

Here's the bottom line. We get to claim a mulligan this time around because nobody really considered what would happen if the whole educational system was disrupted like it has been. The safety net was nonexistent. Going forward we have to expand our scope of education delivery systems to account for the possibilities of serious disruptions like we saw this year. We have to have an educational system at all levels, primary to graduate level, that doesn't flounder and drift up on to the rocks like it did this time.

The answer isn't going to involve simply throwing existing technology devices at the problem. I can't think of any single device that can, by itself, replace what was lost once students were no longer in a physical classroom setting.  Technology has always been a great enabler, in the right hands, and when guided by meaningful human involvement from parents, teachers, and public/private institutions, but it's only a piece of the solution. So yes, there is a fabulous opportunity here for Apple to be part of the solution, but they have be engaged much more deeply than simply finding more ways to sell more cratefuls of iPads to schools. I'm sure both Tim Cook and Sundar Pichai know this and have assembled teams to go after the solution ... which I believe is another opportunity for collaboration because the problem is so vast and far reaching.

GeorgeBMac

dewme said:

I think there is an opportunity in the educational market for whomever can deliver a mobile-friendly and remote-learning-friendly system that actually works effectively. The Covid-19 pandemic was/is a stress test and reality check that assessed whether some of the current generation of tools really work. From what I'm seeing and hearing from educators it was pretty much a failure for the students and a miserable failure for the parents. 

Companies like Apple do recognize that their devices are only there to augment the traditional curriculum. They go to great lengths to ensure that their devices and associated lesson plans are folded into the existing curriculum in a way that improves, expands, and augments the existing programs. Apple and others never intended for their device centric learning apparatus to replace existing programs in their entirety any more than Zoom ever saw itself as a virtual classroom that could substitute for the real thing. 

Here's the bottom line. We get to claim a mulligan this time around because nobody really considered what would happen if the whole educational system was disrupted like it has been. The safety net was nonexistent. Going forward we have to expand our scope of education delivery systems to account for the possibilities of serious disruptions like we saw this year. We have to have an educational system at all levels, primary to graduate level, that doesn't flounder and drift up on to the rocks like it did this time.

The answer isn't going to involve simply throwing existing technology devices at the problem. I can't think of any single device that can, by itself, replace what was lost once students were no longer in a physical classroom setting.  Technology has always been a great enabler, in the right hands, and when guided by meaningful human involvement from parents, teachers, and public/private institutions, but it's only a piece of the solution. So yes, there is a fabulous opportunity here for Apple to be part of the solution, but they have be engaged much more deeply than simply finding more ways to sell more cratefuls of iPads to schools. I'm sure both Tim Cook and Sundar Pichai know this and have assembled teams to go after the solution ... which I believe is another opportunity for collaboration because the problem is so vast and far reaching.

From my personal experience I have to agree both that:

1)   That technology can only augment traditional classroom solutions.

2)   The current remote learning experiment was mostly a failure.   But, that does not mean that it should be totally abandoned.   Kahn Academy is an effective remote learning tool that opens quality education up to those to whom it is not otherwise available.  But, perhaps its Achilles Heal is that it requires internet access and those without access to a school do not have access to the internet either. 

For myself, around the time Kennedy was announcing we would land on the moon by end of the decade and missile ballistics were calculated in a backroom using paper and pencil, I learned Algebra using a blend of a remote / self learning tool but in a classroom with a teacher present to answer questions and administer tests.   And, for me, it worked exceptionally well.   Perhaps the difference is that the tests were administered by a teacher:   What I saw for my grandson this time around around was that it had two major points of failure:

1)  The kids collaborated on the tests (otherwise known as cheating) and therefor there was little need for them to actually study the material.   (Although it was a great exercise in team building!)

2)  Without the structure of a classroom with a set start time, my grandson lost all of his self discipline and neither I nor his parents were able to fill that gap.   Essentially, he and his friends were up all night on XBox and Facetime, etc. and then slept most of the day.

SpamSandwich

When will the lies stop?