Don't get too worked up. Yeh, Apple is a solid company on many levels and a good candidate for investment.
But, right now -- and for the past 10-12 years -- the entirety of the American stock market has been propped up by two major things that artificially inflated prices:
1) Massive (trillions) amounts of borrowed and printed money have been poured in till excess cash is sloshing around like water in a bucket.
2) Interest rates have been artificially held to ultra low levels so that investors had no other option than to shift to risk (equity) assets. We saw what happened, in 2018 when the Fed tried to raise rates back up closer to more normal, sustainable levels -- markets plummeted.
Despite the TaxScam pumping up corporate profits with borrowed money the major method of valuing stocks remains elevated at over 1/3 higher than normal. That is, the Price Earning ratio historically runs at about 15 but has now never dropped below 20 even during the latest stock market crash.
So, essentially, stock prices have been removed from reality based fundamentals and are being artificially propped up. At some point they will return to normal and even good, solid companies like Apple will be impacted.
Enjoy the party while it lasts.
Says the committed anti-capitalist who thinks the government should own the means of production.
Everything he said is true. Do you happen to own Apple shares? Because it would explain how toxic you’re being about his post.
People who still think Tim Cook was a bad choice for CEO ... there’s the door. It’s the one your credibility already walked out of some time ago.
Apple had some supposedly great CEOs when they were doing bad as well.
I think the animosity towards Cook was focused around the seeming lack of vision and ability to say 'no' to the right things and such... but maybe he was just getting his footing, or had bigger problems to deal with during those years. It seems like a lot of the things some of us were complaining about (and I think very legitimately!), have started to get fixed.
How much of Apple's current success has been Cook's operations excellence magnifying the past potential vs where Apple will go in the future, I can't be sure. I'm certainly troubled by some of Apple's moves as well. If the right choices aren't made, Apple could become very IBM (successful, but not as interesting to people like us). I don't think they are going out of business any day soon, but I never did.
Now that the country is actually starting to slowly return to work, there will be a huge upward push on the stock. Frankly, I’m amazed it bounced up to the current high so fast.
I am too... more on that in a bit. But, as we can see, we've got other issues going on. The real question will be more the longer term. The Great Depression (if memory serves) took a year or two to get into, and then nearly a decade to get back out. It kind of depends on how much damage was done worldwide, etc.
dewme said: What's the alternative to cool and trendy? Hot and bothered? Warm and backwards? Maybe bland and retro? I'm just not hitting on an alternative that sounds very appealing.
Sophisticated and stylish? Quality and Innovation? The problem with trendy and cool, is well, just look at past trendy and cool things.
GeorgeBMac said: ... So, essentially, stock prices have been removed from reality based fundamentals and are being artificially propped up. At some point they will return to normal and even good, solid companies like Apple will be impacted.
Enjoy the party while it lasts.
Yeah, though they've been like that for quite a long time. You're right, though, eventually the party will end.
lkrupp said: Being retired and living off of IRAs and SS I was freaking out when my portfolios decided to visit the Titanic as the pandemic hit. As of today all of my investments, including AAPL, have returned to within a few $K of their pre-pandemic levels. Unemployment is dropping. This may be 'irrational exuberance' as the economists say but I'm sleeping better at night.
Someone who I'm pretty sure is in the know, indicated that big business and financial types had hired their own scientists and experts to advise them, and they've seen through the baloney a bit more than most watching the news.
But, I think we're facing a lot more than a propped up pandemic at this point, and in regards to the above party, most scientists and analysts don't take the human-nature factor enough into the economics equation these days anymore. And, I also don't believe propping (and protecting) up the $USD is an endless venture.
GeorgeBMac said: ... As a financial analyst I got to learn and understand how real capitalism works.
...It does work though. Till it doesn't.
... You need to learn how real capitalism -- and free markets -- work. ...
^^^ THIS!
It is a bit like the famous G.K. Chesterton quote regarding Christianity: “The Christian ideal has not been tried and found wanting. It has been found difficult; and left untried.”
What we have (and is typically fought for) isn't Capitalism. It is kind of the problem with the concept of 'freedom' in general, actually. Freedom, and a free-market, means a fair and just one, not crony capitalism. Just like real societal freedom isn't anarchy.
Comments
I think the animosity towards Cook was focused around the seeming lack of vision and ability to say 'no' to the right things and such... but maybe he was just getting his footing, or had bigger problems to deal with during those years. It seems like a lot of the things some of us were complaining about (and I think very legitimately!), have started to get fixed.
How much of Apple's current success has been Cook's operations excellence magnifying the past potential vs where Apple will go in the future, I can't be sure. I'm certainly troubled by some of Apple's moves as well. If the right choices aren't made, Apple could become very IBM (successful, but not as interesting to people like us). I don't think they are going out of business any day soon, but I never did.
I am too... more on that in a bit. But, as we can see, we've got other issues going on. The real question will be more the longer term. The Great Depression (if memory serves) took a year or two to get into, and then nearly a decade to get back out. It kind of depends on how much damage was done worldwide, etc.
Sophisticated and stylish? Quality and Innovation?
The problem with trendy and cool, is well, just look at past trendy and cool things.
Yeah, though they've been like that for quite a long time. You're right, though, eventually the party will end.
Someone who I'm pretty sure is in the know, indicated that big business and financial types had hired their own scientists and experts to advise them, and they've seen through the baloney a bit more than most watching the news.
But, I think we're facing a lot more than a propped up pandemic at this point, and in regards to the above party, most scientists and analysts don't take the human-nature factor enough into the economics equation these days anymore. And, I also don't believe propping (and protecting) up the $USD is an endless venture.
^^^ THIS!
It is a bit like the famous G.K. Chesterton quote regarding Christianity: “The Christian ideal has not been tried and found wanting. It has been found difficult; and left untried.”
What we have (and is typically fought for) isn't Capitalism. It is kind of the problem with the concept of 'freedom' in general, actually. Freedom, and a free-market, means a fair and just one, not crony capitalism. Just like real societal freedom isn't anarchy.