Apple's 'drumroll begins' for 5G iPhone 12 super-cycle, says analyst

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Investment bank Wedbush is predicting that the "iPhone 12" will launch at about the same time that the iPhone X did, and despite coronavirus challenges, 5G will induce a super-cycle for Apple in 2020 and 2021.

Apple's 2020 5G iPhone 12 launch could drive an upgrade super-cycle for the company, Wedbush says.
Apple's 2020 5G iPhone 12 launch could drive an upgrade super-cycle for the company, Wedbush says.


In a note to investors seen by AppleInsider, Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives says that Apple's supply chain has normalized ahead of expectations after coronavirus snarled production earlier in 2020. Ives adds that the normalization puts "Cook & Co. back in the drivers seat to launch this 5G cycle in this typical September timeframe."

Although there have been "previous reports speculating that the iPhone 12" will launch similarly to how the iPhone X rolled out, Ives now fully expects Apple to debut the lineup in late September and ship out in early October. That's in-line with its usual timeframe, and Wedbush based its current forecast on recent supply chain checks.

As with past "iPhone 12" rumors, Ives is expecting Apple to launch four iPhone models with a mix of 4G and 5G compatibility across the lineup. At least one of those devices could sport a sub-$1,000 price tag despite 5G support.

On the 5G topic, Ives said that there will likely be both U.S. and non-U.S. versions of the 5G iPhone, with only some models sporting faster mmWave 5G support. The analyst added that Apple appears to have "ironed out" technology wrinkles with 5G, further corroborating that 2020's pivotal launch will go over smoothly.

Beyond production issues, there have also been some hints that weakened demand could throw the late 2020 iPhone lineup off Apple's usual schedule.

However, Ives expects Apple to be on the verge of entering a super-cycle due to 5G. Wedbush is estimating that 350 million of Apple's current 950 million iPhones are in an upgrade window, and that lower price tags on some models could catalyze upgrades. That is driving the investment bank's longer-term bullish thesis, despite the "dark COVID-19 backdrop and a soft macro."

Wedbush's supply chains checks agree with rumors that the "iPhone 12" will launch without EarPods in the box. Ives expects that to drive demand for AirPods, which are on a trajectory to sell 85 million units in 2020. That's up from 65 million in 2019.

Going into WWDC 2020, Ives expects Apple to show off new operating systems like iOS 14, announce a move to ARM-based Mac chips, and drop "some breadcrumbs" about "Apple Glass" or other AR and wearable developments.

Wedbush's 12-month Apple price target remains at $375 from a week prior. Apple's stock is trading at $351.95 on Tuesday morning, up 2.67%.

Comments

  • Reply 1 of 11
    DAalsethDAalseth Posts: 1,712member
    Year after year analysts predict the next "supercycle".
    It's time to just accept that the "supercycle" is a myth.
    chaickabluefire1blurpbleepbloop
  • Reply 2 of 11
    chaickachaicka Posts: 238member
    DAalseth said:
    Year after year analysts predict the next "supercycle".
    It's time to just accept that the "supercycle" is a myth.
    Hahaha.....I think most business would prefer to work towards longevity and cycles within a controlled/acceptable range, than to have 'supercycles'.
    Well, if there is no bust-word to catch attention, these analysts/journalists may not have a rice-bowl, hence the incentives to use all kinds of sensational journalism. Hahaha...
    repressthis
  • Reply 3 of 11
    rob53rob53 Posts: 2,638member
    5G has not been rolled out and even LTE is not available except in populated areas along with areas that are really flat so I'll wait on this. The question I have is how do I get gigabit WiFi speed from my iPhone 11 Pro Max when I'm on gigabit service (can get gigabit using hardwired to my Macs)? Is there a router that can actually get WiFi at that speed? 

    Having 5G speeds would be nice outside the house but I'd like to see those speeds inside the house (without having to pay a fortune).
    tokyojimublurpbleepblooprepressthis
  • Reply 4 of 11
    elijahgelijahg Posts: 2,311member
    I really don't know what the hype is around 5G. 4G is fast enough in 90% of situations, and is nowhere near as prone to the congestion that 3G was. Why do we need 1gbps to our phones? It's not like it's a shared connection with several users on, and even then, 100mbps is fine for most cases. Can't say I've ever noticed a wait for pages to load on 4G. 5G seems like a marketing ploy to try and get people to buy new phones to me.
  • Reply 5 of 11
    tokyojimutokyojimu Posts: 487member
    Supercycle, my ass. I don’t know anyone clamoring for faster net speeds on their iPhones. In China, the carriers are charging over double for the 5G privilege. I wonder if any of the US carriers will try that. 
  • Reply 6 of 11
    bluefire1bluefire1 Posts: 1,154member
    DAalseth said:
    Year after year analysts predict the next "supercycle".
    It's time to just accept that the "supercycle" is a myth.
    The iPhone 6 was the last real super cycle.
    edited June 2020 repressthis
  • Reply 7 of 11
    SpamSandwichSpamSandwich Posts: 33,408member
    Insert “MigraineHeadache.gif” here.
  • Reply 8 of 11
    jdb8167jdb8167 Posts: 620member
    elijahg said:
    I really don't know what the hype is around 5G. 4G is fast enough in 90% of situations, and is nowhere near as prone to the congestion that 3G was. Why do we need 1gbps to our phones? It's not like it's a shared connection with several users on, and even then, 100mbps is fine for most cases. Can't say I've ever noticed a wait for pages to load on 4G. 5G seems like a marketing ploy to try and get people to buy new phones to me.
    It has little to do with phones or users. It is mainly a benefit for the service providers. They can increase the number of simultaneous connections with the same number of towers lowering their equipment costs. But that is a hard sell so they try to market benefits to the user. I doubt it will work.

    The cell companies could do one easy thing but they won't. Simply say 5G is going to lower monthly costs and the uptake would be immediate. But that is not going to happen.
  • Reply 9 of 11
    aknabiaknabi Posts: 210member
    elijahg said:
    I really don't know what the hype is around 5G. 4G is fast enough in 90% of situations, and is nowhere near as prone to the congestion that 3G was. Why do we need 1gbps to our phones? It's not like it's a shared connection with several users on, and even then, 100mbps is fine for most cases. Can't say I've ever noticed a wait for pages to load on 4G. 5G seems like a marketing ploy to try and get people to buy new phones to me.
    Don't you get it??? It's another G!!! You must have all the Gs! Take my G$!

    Though frankly get the Gs out there working properly before trying give us more Gs...
  • Reply 10 of 11
    GeorgeBMacGeorgeBMac Posts: 10,260member
    rob53 said:
    5G has not been rolled out and even LTE is not available except in populated areas along with areas that are really flat so I'll wait on this. The question I have is how do I get gigabit WiFi speed from my iPhone 11 Pro Max when I'm on gigabit service (can get gigabit using hardwired to my Macs)? Is there a router that can actually get WiFi at that speed? 

    Having 5G speeds would be nice outside the house but I'd like to see those speeds inside the house (without having to pay a fortune).

    Any lack of connectivity you have or will have is not caused by any xG, but by the U.S.'s very broken system of telecoms making decisions based on shareholder value rather than serving the country or its citizens.   The country recognized that problem almost 100 years ago with electricity and took action to start service project like the TVA to bring that technology to underserved rural areas as well as making those companies highly regulated "public utilities" to insure that they serve the best interests of country and its citizenry while providing an adequate, fair return to shareholders.
    ...  None of that will be happening anytime soon in this country.  We will continue to stumble and fumble along....

    But, other countries throughout the world that Apple serves are (with the exception of the past several months) rolling out 5G across their countries.
    Apple sells to them too.   Because the U.S. is turning itself into a giant rust belt from a telecom perspective should not impact Apple's plans.   They serve the world.
  • Reply 11 of 11
    GeorgeBMacGeorgeBMac Posts: 10,260member
    elijahg said:
    I really don't know what the hype is around 5G. 4G is fast enough in 90% of situations, and is nowhere near as prone to the congestion that 3G was. Why do we need 1gbps to our phones? It's not like it's a shared connection with several users on, and even then, 100mbps is fine for most cases. Can't say I've ever noticed a wait for pages to load on 4G. 5G seems like a marketing ploy to try and get people to buy new phones to me.

    That's what they said about 3G -- and horses....
    chemengin1
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