Only 10% of analyst's survey respondents plan to buy an 'iPhone 12' in 2020
A new Piper Sandler survey indicates that only 10% of respondents plan to buy a new "iPhone 12" model in fall or winter 2020, suggesting that consumers are "hunkering down" heading into the launch.
Credit: Andrew O'Hara, AppleInsider
In a research note seen by AppleInsider, lead analyst Harsh Kumar details the results of a survey of about 1,000 Americans that the investment bank conducted in late September 2020.
Per the results, only about 10% of that number said that they expect to buy a new iPhone or upgrade to a 5G-equipped "iPhone 12" model in the latter half of 2020. As Kumar notes, that's well below a previous survey that suggested 23% of respondents planned to upgrade but may be attributable to the global coronavirus health crisis.
"We are a bit surprised by the lower than expected demand given the cellular transition, but the global pandemic may be putting pressure on spending patterns this fall/winter," Kumar writes.
Of those that do plan to upgrade by the end of 2020, about half said they would do so for the 5G capabilities of the new device. The other half said they simply needed to upgrade their devices.
Other details revealed in the survey include that the average age of a current iPhone is about 2.3 years. Respondents also said that they expect the average price of a mid-range iPhone 5G to be about $1,015 -- slightly lower than the average mid-range price of $1,068 over the last three years.
Piper Sandler also asked its participants about other Apple devices. Here's what they said.
Credit: Andrew O'Hara, AppleInsider
In a research note seen by AppleInsider, lead analyst Harsh Kumar details the results of a survey of about 1,000 Americans that the investment bank conducted in late September 2020.
Per the results, only about 10% of that number said that they expect to buy a new iPhone or upgrade to a 5G-equipped "iPhone 12" model in the latter half of 2020. As Kumar notes, that's well below a previous survey that suggested 23% of respondents planned to upgrade but may be attributable to the global coronavirus health crisis.
"We are a bit surprised by the lower than expected demand given the cellular transition, but the global pandemic may be putting pressure on spending patterns this fall/winter," Kumar writes.
Of those that do plan to upgrade by the end of 2020, about half said they would do so for the 5G capabilities of the new device. The other half said they simply needed to upgrade their devices.
Other details revealed in the survey include that the average age of a current iPhone is about 2.3 years. Respondents also said that they expect the average price of a mid-range iPhone 5G to be about $1,015 -- slightly lower than the average mid-range price of $1,068 over the last three years.
Piper Sandler also asked its participants about other Apple devices. Here's what they said.
- About a quarter of respondents said that they saw value in the new Apple Watch Series 6, but only 8% said they'd buy one.
- 12% of those surveyed said that the lower-priced Apple Watch SE makes it more likely that they'll buy an Apple wearable.
- Kumar says that similar pandemic-related budget constraints could be causing the "low interest level" for the Apple Watch.
- About 15% of respondants said that they expect to buy a new iPad soon due to a "recent lifestyle change."
Comments
My iPhone 4S was a significant upgrade over my 3GS.
My iPhone 6 was a significant upgrade over my 4S.
My iPhone 6s Plus was a significant upgrade over my 6.
My iPhone Xs Max was a less significant upgrade over my 6s Plus.
I haven't been even remotely tempted by any iPhone 11 and don't expect to be tempted by the iPhone 12, either. To me, the performance and capability of the Xs Max still exceeds my needs and wants and I can't justify upgrading - it's like buying a 700+ horsepower sports car to commute 5 miles to work on a 45 MPH road.
These surveys have the same credibility of the polls back in 2016 were Hillary was going to win.
By buying the first year of a major upgrade you get to enjoy the upgrades longer than somebody who holds out. And this year is a major upgrade year:
The bottom line is that Apple is doing everything within its power and control to present the most compelling new products to market that it is able to deliver under the current circumstances. Apple cannot control macro economic factors that influence consumer confidence. All they can do is make their new product/service offerings as highly desirable and compelling as possible, so if or when the economy rebounds and consumer confidence improves they have what customers want to buy available for sale. Apple could not afford to sit this year out, no matter how challenging it has turned out to be.
I personally don't think the 5G factor is going to move the needle much at all this year, especially if a fair number of current iPhone owners already believe they have 5G and outside of a handful of gadget geeks who post 5G performance benchmarks because they have access to a 5G micro-zone, the value of 5G isn't percolating at a grassroots level across regular user community.
Finally, we've never had to compare pre-pandemic numbers to still-in-a-hot-pandemic numbers before so maybe a 10% "plan to buy" result from this particular group of survey participants is in-fact a favorable indicator under the current circumstances. We really don't know, Apple doesn't know, but they do know what they have to do to stay on top of their product offerings, so they are moving full speed ahead.
Popular votes are only a reminder of how screwed up is the US election system.
Your logic, not unsupported, says buying a new iPhone is the last thing to worry about right now for a lot of people and you are not wrong. However, your assumption that logic will guide enough people to have a heavy impact on holiday shopping is quite weak. I don't think you know too much about consumer behavior.
I am wondering if that is code for you probably can't it afford it right now or can and are not comfortable given the economic destruction Trump has reaped upon the American economy. I hope it is a comfort call for you.
I fully understand and don't disagree about excess horsepower, but when you say you are using a Xs Max and IPhone 12/12 Pro is not a significant upgrade, you lose me.
I am trading in my X. Three years on my X is enough and the upgrade is very significant. I like lots of horsepower whether I am going three miles to the market or 150 miles across the alley to see my friends ... a need for speed. I like fast, powerful cars and fast, powerful phones. I am fortunate I can afford them and also lucky (not really luck) my finances are not very affected by the current conditions making it tough for a lot of people.
Make sure you vote. No excuses.
What the details of the survey should tell is it is a little value and relying on it would be foolish. Did you look at the data, study criteria and survey design?
62% of the respondents are from geographic areas containing less the 33% of the country's population and only two of the country's top 10 economic centers. I wouldn't be too influenced or draw any conclusions based on this survey.
Harsh Kumar ( the analyst and author of the report) still maintains a strong buy rating on Apple with a share price target more than 10% higher than yesterday's close price. Mr. Kumar says he is surprised. He does have a record, when it comes to Apple, of saying one thing in his public reports, but doing something very different when it comes to guiding his clients.
The iPhone12 new camera systems are a big advance over last year including actual shooting video in DolbyVision as well as editing, and ProRAW photos that use computational improvement as instructions, i.e. not baked into a jpeg, but full 10-bit RAW info to edit.
So sensor size and interchangeable lenses are mostly what lack from DSLRs among other features. Sensor size gap is being solved by micro-zone computational adjustments based on machine learning and the combining of up to approx. 8 photos combined to one final photo, with preview of result on screen while composing. And that’s in iPhone 11— the 12 is much better per specs and explanations in today’s event.