Apple iPhone 12 models use Qualcomm's 5G X55 modem

Posted:
in General Discussion
Apple's new 5G-equipped iPhone 12 models appear to sport Qualcomm's Snapdragon X55 modem, according to early teardowns of the devices.

Credit: Weibo
Credit: Weibo


Although the iPhone 12 doesn't officially start arriving on customer doorsteps until Oct. 23, teardown videos and internal photos of the new models have surface on Chinese social media.

One particular clip posted to Weibo appears to show an L-shaped iPhone logic board equipped with the Qualcomm 5G modem. Although the video doesn't show the iPhone being torn down, the logic boards appear identical to those seen in other confirmed teardowns.



That lines up with predictions that Apple would use the second-generation Qualcomm 5G chip in its 2020 iPhone devices. Although Qualcomm has a newer X60 chip available, that product debuted too late to be included in Apple's iPhone 12 lineup.

All four iPhone 12 and iPhone 12 Pro models support both sub-6GHz 5G and mmWave in the U.S., with models in other countries supporting only low-band 5G connectivity.

Apple settled a long-running legal dispute with Qualcomm to gain access to its 5G chip technology in 2019. Although Apple opted for Intel chips in the iPhone 11 lineup, it became clear that Intel wasn't going to be able to deliver 5G chips.

Next year's "iPhone 13" models are likely to come equipped with the X60 modems, however. That'll bring significant improvements to battery performance, chip size, and connectivity.

Apple, for its part, has already signaled that it plans to use upcoming Qualcomm chips in future iPhones until at least 2024. That's according to text within the Apple and Qualcomm settlement filing that specifically mentions the as-of-yet unannounced X65 and X70 modems.
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 28
    Other countries don’t have mid-band? If you look at Canada vs the US all the 5G bands are exactly the same except for the addition of two GHz bands in the US model. So I think you’re wrong there. 
    gregoriusmwatto_cobra
  • Reply 2 of 28
    wood1208wood1208 Posts: 2,813member
    Qualcomm planned carefully to release X60 right after Apple's iPhone 12 design schedule was locked in and changing that could delay iPhone 12 release into 2021. Well played Qualcomm!!
    caladanian
  • Reply 3 of 28
    bulk001bulk001 Posts: 716member
    iPhone 13 seems to be the one to get unless you absolutely can’t wait another year. Really not much to upgrade to in 12 and with a case, one can’t even show off that don’t have an old and obsolete 11! 😅 
  • Reply 4 of 28
    bulk001 said:
    iPhone 13 seems to be the one to get unless you absolutely can’t wait another year. Really not much to upgrade to in 12 and with a case, one can’t even show off that don’t have an old and obsolete 11! 😅 
    The camera upgrade makes it very desirable to me and I'll be upgrading from an iPhone 11 Pro Max. There are a lot of clear cases available to show off the iPhone. 
    Just because you can't see any reason to upgrade, doesn't mean no one else can.
    caladaniandoozydozenwatto_cobra
  • Reply 5 of 28
    avon b7avon b7 Posts: 6,498member
    wood1208 said:
    Qualcomm planned carefully to release X60 right after Apple's iPhone 12 design schedule was locked in and changing that could delay iPhone 12 release into 2021. Well played Qualcomm!!
    This isn't correct. The X60 roll out was planned long before Apple even signed on with them. 

    Qualcomm stated that the X60 would be available 'at the very earliest' by the end of this year. That has never changed.

    There was an extremely slim chance that Apple would get some kind of prererential access to it as part of the 'kiss and make up' deal, which itself was part of a race against the clock effort to get any kind of 5G modem into an iPhone this year because Intel failed at delivering the goods.

    It is supremely unfortunate, but not unexpected, that Apple may have ended up with last year's hardware on this year's phone's. Especially as the X60 will be shipping on competing phones within weeks.

    But from Apple's perspective, having 5G now is a win.

    And it's is perhaps ironic that this news appears on the very same day that Huawei is likely to launch the world's first 5nm on-SoC 5G modem. 
    GeorgeBMac
  • Reply 6 of 28
    tmaytmay Posts: 5,824member
    avon b7 said:
    wood1208 said:
    Qualcomm planned carefully to release X60 right after Apple's iPhone 12 design schedule was locked in and changing that could delay iPhone 12 release into 2021. Well played Qualcomm!!
    This isn't correct. The X60 roll out was planned long before Apple even signed on with them. 

    Qualcomm stated that the X60 would be available 'at the very earliest' by the end of this year. That has never changed.

    There was an extremely slim chance that Apple would get some kind of prererential access to it as part of the 'kiss and make up' deal, which itself was part of a race against the clock effort to get any kind of 5G modem into an iPhone this year because Intel failed at delivering the goods.

    It is supremely unfortunate, but not unexpected, that Apple may have ended up with last year's hardware on this year's phone's. Especially as the X60 will be shipping on competing phones within weeks.

    But from Apple's perspective, having 5G now is a win.

    And it's is perhaps ironic that this news appears on the very same day that Huawei is likely to launch the world's first 5nm on-SoC 5G modem. 
    Qualcomm was never going to get any TMSC 5nm production ahead of Apple, so Apple would have been quite aware that the X60 wouldn't be in production prior to the release of the A14 and the iPhones 12.

    My recent readings on Huawei's 5nm Kirin 9000, is that they will only get 8.8 million units, not the 15 million units that they wanted from TMSC. Being first isn't going to be all that meaningful this time around as I'd surmise that many of those SOC's will see be sold internally into the market in China. That leaves world wide opportunities for Qualcomm, and OPPO, Xiaomi, and Samsung to replace Huawei in the marketplace.

    https://www.gizchina.com/2020/09/28/huawei-flagship-tablet-to-use-the-kirin-9000-soc-will-be-scarce/

    The Mate 40 will use the Kirin 9000, but it doesn't sell anywhere close to the volumes of iPhones.

    Apple will need a production of something on the order of 175 million A14 / A14X processors alone for FY21(iPhones and iPads), not to mention the Apple Silicon that is coming at the end of the year for the new Mac's. 
    edited October 2020 GeorgeBMacwatto_cobra
  • Reply 7 of 28
    avon b7avon b7 Posts: 6,498member
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    wood1208 said:
    Qualcomm planned carefully to release X60 right after Apple's iPhone 12 design schedule was locked in and changing that could delay iPhone 12 release into 2021. Well played Qualcomm!!
    This isn't correct. The X60 roll out was planned long before Apple even signed on with them. 

    Qualcomm stated that the X60 would be available 'at the very earliest' by the end of this year. That has never changed.

    There was an extremely slim chance that Apple would get some kind of prererential access to it as part of the 'kiss and make up' deal, which itself was part of a race against the clock effort to get any kind of 5G modem into an iPhone this year because Intel failed at delivering the goods.

    It is supremely unfortunate, but not unexpected, that Apple may have ended up with last year's hardware on this year's phone's. Especially as the X60 will be shipping on competing phones within weeks.

    But from Apple's perspective, having 5G now is a win.

    And it's is perhaps ironic that this news appears on the very same day that Huawei is likely to launch the world's first 5nm on-SoC 5G modem. 
    Qualcomm was never going to get any TMSC 5nm production ahead of Apple, so Apple would have been quite aware that the X60 wouldn't be in production prior to the release of the A14 and the iPhones 12.

    My recent readings on Huawei's 5nm Kirin 9000, is that they will only get 8.8 million units, not the 15 million units that they wanted from TMSC. Being first isn't going to be all that meaningful this time around as I'd surmise that many of those SOC's will see be sold internally into the market in China. That leaves world wide opportunities for Qualcomm, and OPPO, Xiaomi, and Samsung to replace Huawei in the marketplace.

    https://www.gizchina.com/2020/09/28/huawei-flagship-tablet-to-use-the-kirin-9000-soc-will-be-scarce/

    The Mate 40 will use the Kirin 9000, but it doesn't sell anywhere close to the volumes of iPhones.

    Apple will need a production of something on the order of 175 million A14 / A14X processors alone for FY21(iPhones and iPads), not to mention the Apple Silicon that is coming at the end of the year for the new Mac's. 
    I don't know why you are so sure of Qualcomm's impossibility of getting 5nm before Apple. 

    After all TSMC was manufacturing for Apple and Huawei at the same time and you seem to be forgetting the Samsung fabs.

    And just last week you claimed the iPhone 12 would ship with an X60 (and did you say it was on SoC too?) 

    The possibility was there but it would have been touch and go and probably mean a delay in release times. It seems it hasn't played out that way. 

    How many Kirin 9000s are produced has nothing to do with anything. That is a geopolitical issue. 

    And you seem to ignore the fact that Apple always had the option to include the X60 but in a different model released at a later date. 
    GeorgeBMacmuthuk_vanalingam
  • Reply 8 of 28
    tmaytmay Posts: 5,824member
    avon b7 said:
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    wood1208 said:
    Qualcomm planned carefully to release X60 right after Apple's iPhone 12 design schedule was locked in and changing that could delay iPhone 12 release into 2021. Well played Qualcomm!!
    This isn't correct. The X60 roll out was planned long before Apple even signed on with them. 

    Qualcomm stated that the X60 would be available 'at the very earliest' by the end of this year. That has never changed.

    There was an extremely slim chance that Apple would get some kind of prererential access to it as part of the 'kiss and make up' deal, which itself was part of a race against the clock effort to get any kind of 5G modem into an iPhone this year because Intel failed at delivering the goods.

    It is supremely unfortunate, but not unexpected, that Apple may have ended up with last year's hardware on this year's phone's. Especially as the X60 will be shipping on competing phones within weeks.

    But from Apple's perspective, having 5G now is a win.

    And it's is perhaps ironic that this news appears on the very same day that Huawei is likely to launch the world's first 5nm on-SoC 5G modem. 
    Qualcomm was never going to get any TMSC 5nm production ahead of Apple, so Apple would have been quite aware that the X60 wouldn't be in production prior to the release of the A14 and the iPhones 12.

    My recent readings on Huawei's 5nm Kirin 9000, is that they will only get 8.8 million units, not the 15 million units that they wanted from TMSC. Being first isn't going to be all that meaningful this time around as I'd surmise that many of those SOC's will see be sold internally into the market in China. That leaves world wide opportunities for Qualcomm, and OPPO, Xiaomi, and Samsung to replace Huawei in the marketplace.

    https://www.gizchina.com/2020/09/28/huawei-flagship-tablet-to-use-the-kirin-9000-soc-will-be-scarce/

    The Mate 40 will use the Kirin 9000, but it doesn't sell anywhere close to the volumes of iPhones.

    Apple will need a production of something on the order of 175 million A14 / A14X processors alone for FY21(iPhones and iPads), not to mention the Apple Silicon that is coming at the end of the year for the new Mac's. 
    I don't know why you are so sure of Qualcomm's impossibility of getting 5nm before Apple. 

    After all TSMC was manufacturing for Apple and Huawei at the same time and you seem to be forgetting the Samsung fabs.

    And just last week you claimed the iPhone 12 would ship with an X60 (and did you say it was on SoC too?) 

    The possibility was there but it would have been touch and go and probably mean a delay in release times. It seems it hasn't played out that way. 

    How many Kirin 9000s are produced has nothing to do with anything. That is a geopolitical issue. 

    And you seem to ignore the fact that Apple always had the option to include the X60 but in a different model released at a later date. 
    As it turns out, I was wrong about the X60, but as it stands, it isn't going to be a big issue, ie, battery life, per reviews, as most people aren't going to be using mmwave consistently through the day. And no, I didn't believe that Apple would delay the iPhone 12 beyond what it was; a few weeks.

    Do you have evidence that Apple and Huawei were in process at TMSC at the same time? Because, it is common knowledge that Apple is the largest source of revenue by far at TMSC, and they do seem to have stuffed the competition with early orders. Some analysts are expecting 80 million iPhones sold during this quarter,  

    The available Kirin 9000's, and any other Kirin SOC, has everything to do with what Huawei can ship. There isn't TMSC production available anymore at leading nodes, and there are restrictions on Silicon manufacturing equipment, and as well software for silicon design, exports to China. That leaves Huawei with having to purchase off the self SOC's from other sources. 

    Given the number of very positive reviews and early preorders of the two available iPhone 12 models, it looks like Apple has not been affected at all by releasing a 5G model after Android OS device competitors, and there's an expectation of sales in the 200 million to 220 million unit range for FY21.

    My recollection is you posted a number of "doom" scenarios for Apple that never occurred. This might be a good time to retract those.
    watto_cobra
  • Reply 9 of 28
    GeorgeBMacGeorgeBMac Posts: 11,421member
    Anilu_777 said:
    Other countries don’t have mid-band? If you look at Canada vs the US all the 5G bands are exactly the same except for the addition of two GHz bands in the US model. So I think you’re wrong there. 

    I don't think anybody ever said that Canada, nor any other country, doesn't "have mid-band".
    Rather, Apple's iPhone won't support it or receive it in any country but the U.S.

    I find that restriction highly curious since all iPhone 12's carry the same hardware inside regardless of which country they are sold in.
    --  So why would Apple impose that restriction?
    --  What was the benefit -- either to Apple or its customers?  Who wins?

    Further, I wonder if this will spur increased purchases (and thefts) of U.S. iPhone 12's so they can be sold in other countries
    (unless this restriction is instituted when the phone travels to that country rather than when it is sold in that country)
  • Reply 10 of 28
    GeorgeBMacGeorgeBMac Posts: 11,421member
    Apple's new 5G-equipped iPhone 12 models appear to sport Qualcomm's Snapdragon X55 modem, according to early teardowns of the devices.

    Credit: Weibo
    Credit: Weibo


    Although the iPhone 12 doesn't officially start arriving on customer doorsteps until Oct. 23, teardown videos and internal photos of the new models have surface on Chinese social media.

    One particular clip posted to Weibo appears to show an L-shaped iPhone logic board equipped with the Qualcomm 5G modem. Although the video doesn't show the iPhone being torn down, the logic boards appear identical to those seen in other confirmed teardowns.



    That lines up with predictions that Apple would use the second-generation Qualcomm 5G chip in its 2020 iPhone devices. Although Qualcomm has a newer X60 chip available, that product debuted too late to be included in Apple's iPhone 12 lineup.

    All four iPhone 12 and iPhone 12 Pro models support both sub-6GHz 5G and mmWave in the U.S., with models in other countries supporting only low-band 5G connectivity.

    Apple settled a long-running legal dispute with Qualcomm to gain access to its 5G chip technology in 2019. Although Apple opted for Intel chips in the iPhone 11 lineup, it became clear that Intel wasn't going to be able to deliver 5G chips.

    Next year's "iPhone 13" models are likely to come equipped with the X60 modems, however. That'll bring significant improvements to battery performance, chip size, and connectivity.

    Apple, for its part, has already signaled that it plans to use upcoming Qualcomm chips in future iPhones until at least 2024. That's according to text within the Apple and Qualcomm settlement filing that specifically mentions the as-of-yet unannounced X65 and X70 modems.

    That, for me, might be a good reason to hold off buying an iPhone till next year:
    By mid 2021 Apple and Qualcomm will have far more experience in 5G and how it operates in a real world environment -- so the chip, antennas and software could all be greatly improved providing better connectivity for less power.

    Plus, 5G (in the U.S.) should be greatly expanded and matured over the next 12 months making a 5G phone more valuable than it is now.

    Plus, I don't really need a new iPhone and was mostly interested because of all the significant enhancements of the iPhone 12 over the 11 or the X series.
  • Reply 11 of 28
    tmaytmay Posts: 5,824member
    Apple's new 5G-equipped iPhone 12 models appear to sport Qualcomm's Snapdragon X55 modem, according to early teardowns of the devices.

    Credit: Weibo
    Credit: Weibo


    Although the iPhone 12 doesn't officially start arriving on customer doorsteps until Oct. 23, teardown videos and internal photos of the new models have surface on Chinese social media.

    One particular clip posted to Weibo appears to show an L-shaped iPhone logic board equipped with the Qualcomm 5G modem. Although the video doesn't show the iPhone being torn down, the logic boards appear identical to those seen in other confirmed teardowns.



    That lines up with predictions that Apple would use the second-generation Qualcomm 5G chip in its 2020 iPhone devices. Although Qualcomm has a newer X60 chip available, that product debuted too late to be included in Apple's iPhone 12 lineup.

    All four iPhone 12 and iPhone 12 Pro models support both sub-6GHz 5G and mmWave in the U.S., with models in other countries supporting only low-band 5G connectivity.

    Apple settled a long-running legal dispute with Qualcomm to gain access to its 5G chip technology in 2019. Although Apple opted for Intel chips in the iPhone 11 lineup, it became clear that Intel wasn't going to be able to deliver 5G chips.

    Next year's "iPhone 13" models are likely to come equipped with the X60 modems, however. That'll bring significant improvements to battery performance, chip size, and connectivity.

    Apple, for its part, has already signaled that it plans to use upcoming Qualcomm chips in future iPhones until at least 2024. That's according to text within the Apple and Qualcomm settlement filing that specifically mentions the as-of-yet unannounced X65 and X70 modems.

    That, for me, might be a good reason to hold off buying an iPhone till next year:
    By mid 2021 Apple and Qualcomm will have far more experience in 5G and how it operates in a real world environment -- so the chip, antennas and software could all be greatly improved providing better connectivity for less power.

    Plus, 5G (in the U.S.) should be greatly expanded and matured over the next 12 months making a 5G phone more valuable than it is now.

    Plus, I don't really need a new iPhone and was mostly interested because of all the significant enhancements of the iPhone 12 over the 11 or the X series.
    As you have been one of the posters here that has been pushing 5G as "must have" in the past, I find your musings on waiting a year to be a bit ironic.

    Still, I am in agreement with you.

    Myself, I delayed purchasing last year when I heard the rumor of the LIDAR coming to the iPhone 12. That's something that will have an impact on low light photography, and so that was something that I wanted at the time. On top of that, I don't expect very many locations offering mmwave in my location, so the X55 modem will be fine for battery life.

    Since I'm upgrading from an iPhone 7Plus to an iPhone 12 Pro Max (almost the same physical size), I come out way ahead on features and performance.
    doozydozenMplsPwatto_cobra
  • Reply 12 of 28
    avon b7avon b7 Posts: 6,498member
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    wood1208 said:
    Qualcomm planned carefully to release X60 right after Apple's iPhone 12 design schedule was locked in and changing that could delay iPhone 12 release into 2021. Well played Qualcomm!!
    This isn't correct. The X60 roll out was planned long before Apple even signed on with them. 

    Qualcomm stated that the X60 would be available 'at the very earliest' by the end of this year. That has never changed.

    There was an extremely slim chance that Apple would get some kind of prererential access to it as part of the 'kiss and make up' deal, which itself was part of a race against the clock effort to get any kind of 5G modem into an iPhone this year because Intel failed at delivering the goods.

    It is supremely unfortunate, but not unexpected, that Apple may have ended up with last year's hardware on this year's phone's. Especially as the X60 will be shipping on competing phones within weeks.

    But from Apple's perspective, having 5G now is a win.

    And it's is perhaps ironic that this news appears on the very same day that Huawei is likely to launch the world's first 5nm on-SoC 5G modem. 
    Qualcomm was never going to get any TMSC 5nm production ahead of Apple, so Apple would have been quite aware that the X60 wouldn't be in production prior to the release of the A14 and the iPhones 12.

    My recent readings on Huawei's 5nm Kirin 9000, is that they will only get 8.8 million units, not the 15 million units that they wanted from TMSC. Being first isn't going to be all that meaningful this time around as I'd surmise that many of those SOC's will see be sold internally into the market in China. That leaves world wide opportunities for Qualcomm, and OPPO, Xiaomi, and Samsung to replace Huawei in the marketplace.

    https://www.gizchina.com/2020/09/28/huawei-flagship-tablet-to-use-the-kirin-9000-soc-will-be-scarce/

    The Mate 40 will use the Kirin 9000, but it doesn't sell anywhere close to the volumes of iPhones.

    Apple will need a production of something on the order of 175 million A14 / A14X processors alone for FY21(iPhones and iPads), not to mention the Apple Silicon that is coming at the end of the year for the new Mac's. 
    I don't know why you are so sure of Qualcomm's impossibility of getting 5nm before Apple. 

    After all TSMC was manufacturing for Apple and Huawei at the same time and you seem to be forgetting the Samsung fabs.

    And just last week you claimed the iPhone 12 would ship with an X60 (and did you say it was on SoC too?) 

    The possibility was there but it would have been touch and go and probably mean a delay in release times. It seems it hasn't played out that way. 

    How many Kirin 9000s are produced has nothing to do with anything. That is a geopolitical issue. 

    And you seem to ignore the fact that Apple always had the option to include the X60 but in a different model released at a later date. 
    As it turns out, I was wrong about the X60, but as it stands, it isn't going to be a big issue, ie, battery life, per reviews, as most people aren't going to be using mmwave consistently through the day. And no, I didn't believe that Apple would delay the iPhone 12 beyond what it was; a few weeks.

    Do you have evidence that Apple and Huawei were in process at TMSC at the same time? Because, it is common knowledge that Apple is the largest source of revenue by far at TMSC, and they do seem to have stuffed the competition with early orders. Some analysts are expecting 80 million iPhones sold during this quarter,  

    The available Kirin 9000's, and any other Kirin SOC, has everything to do with what Huawei can ship. There isn't TMSC production available anymore at leading nodes, and there are restrictions on Silicon manufacturing equipment, and as well software for silicon design, exports to China. That leaves Huawei with having to purchase off the self SOC's from other sources. 

    Given the number of very positive reviews and early preorders of the two available iPhone 12 models, it looks like Apple has not been affected at all by releasing a 5G model after Android OS device competitors, and there's an expectation of sales in the 200 million to 220 million unit range for FY21.

    My recollection is you posted a number of "doom" scenarios for Apple that never occurred. This might be a good time to retract those.
    You are now asking me to retract things I never said? 

    Doom? 

    You must be confusing me with someone else. I've given my opinion on why I think Apple stalled and fell behind competing flagships in key areas. On the iPhone business model too. 

    The iPhone 12 is not a major jump in any of those key areas when pitted against competing phones. 

    Apple has pretty much reacted with moves that line up very well with those opinions.

    Apple seemingly made a big deal about the 5G speed side of 5G. I didn't expect anything else! Reason to celebrate for sure. 

    But there is also reason to be realistic. The hardware looks to be last year's X55 and Huawei (just 3 hours ago) revealed its latest 5nm part. An on-SoC 5G modem which it claims is fives times faster than the X55 at uploads and twice as fast for downloads. Those apparently are field tested numbers. We will see.

    As for production, you will find numerous articles out there (I've provided some of them to you in the past) on Huawei chipsets entering production before or in parallel to Apple's. However, the point you miss is that Huawei's SoCs are normally released before Apple's. Even this year's SoC was scheduled for the end of August but delayed due to geopolitics.

    How exactly were they able to do this befote Apple? 
    edited October 2020
  • Reply 13 of 28
    tmaytmay Posts: 5,824member
    avon b7 said:
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    wood1208 said:
    Qualcomm planned carefully to release X60 right after Apple's iPhone 12 design schedule was locked in and changing that could delay iPhone 12 release into 2021. Well played Qualcomm!!
    This isn't correct. The X60 roll out was planned long before Apple even signed on with them. 

    Qualcomm stated that the X60 would be available 'at the very earliest' by the end of this year. That has never changed.

    There was an extremely slim chance that Apple would get some kind of prererential access to it as part of the 'kiss and make up' deal, which itself was part of a race against the clock effort to get any kind of 5G modem into an iPhone this year because Intel failed at delivering the goods.

    It is supremely unfortunate, but not unexpected, that Apple may have ended up with last year's hardware on this year's phone's. Especially as the X60 will be shipping on competing phones within weeks.

    But from Apple's perspective, having 5G now is a win.

    And it's is perhaps ironic that this news appears on the very same day that Huawei is likely to launch the world's first 5nm on-SoC 5G modem. 
    Qualcomm was never going to get any TMSC 5nm production ahead of Apple, so Apple would have been quite aware that the X60 wouldn't be in production prior to the release of the A14 and the iPhones 12.

    My recent readings on Huawei's 5nm Kirin 9000, is that they will only get 8.8 million units, not the 15 million units that they wanted from TMSC. Being first isn't going to be all that meaningful this time around as I'd surmise that many of those SOC's will see be sold internally into the market in China. That leaves world wide opportunities for Qualcomm, and OPPO, Xiaomi, and Samsung to replace Huawei in the marketplace.

    https://www.gizchina.com/2020/09/28/huawei-flagship-tablet-to-use-the-kirin-9000-soc-will-be-scarce/

    The Mate 40 will use the Kirin 9000, but it doesn't sell anywhere close to the volumes of iPhones.

    Apple will need a production of something on the order of 175 million A14 / A14X processors alone for FY21(iPhones and iPads), not to mention the Apple Silicon that is coming at the end of the year for the new Mac's. 
    I don't know why you are so sure of Qualcomm's impossibility of getting 5nm before Apple. 

    After all TSMC was manufacturing for Apple and Huawei at the same time and you seem to be forgetting the Samsung fabs.

    And just last week you claimed the iPhone 12 would ship with an X60 (and did you say it was on SoC too?) 

    The possibility was there but it would have been touch and go and probably mean a delay in release times. It seems it hasn't played out that way. 

    How many Kirin 9000s are produced has nothing to do with anything. That is a geopolitical issue. 

    And you seem to ignore the fact that Apple always had the option to include the X60 but in a different model released at a later date. 
    As it turns out, I was wrong about the X60, but as it stands, it isn't going to be a big issue, ie, battery life, per reviews, as most people aren't going to be using mmwave consistently through the day. And no, I didn't believe that Apple would delay the iPhone 12 beyond what it was; a few weeks.

    Do you have evidence that Apple and Huawei were in process at TMSC at the same time? Because, it is common knowledge that Apple is the largest source of revenue by far at TMSC, and they do seem to have stuffed the competition with early orders. Some analysts are expecting 80 million iPhones sold during this quarter,  

    The available Kirin 9000's, and any other Kirin SOC, has everything to do with what Huawei can ship. There isn't TMSC production available anymore at leading nodes, and there are restrictions on Silicon manufacturing equipment, and as well software for silicon design, exports to China. That leaves Huawei with having to purchase off the self SOC's from other sources. 

    Given the number of very positive reviews and early preorders of the two available iPhone 12 models, it looks like Apple has not been affected at all by releasing a 5G model after Android OS device competitors, and there's an expectation of sales in the 200 million to 220 million unit range for FY21.

    My recollection is you posted a number of "doom" scenarios for Apple that never occurred. This might be a good time to retract those.
    You are now asking me to retract things I never said? 

    Doom? 

    You must be confusing me with someone else. I've given my opinion on why I think Apple stalled and fell behind competing flagships in key areas. On the iPhone business model too. 

    The iPhone 12 is not a major jump in any of those key areas when pitted against competing phones. 

    Apple has pretty much reacted with moves that line up very well with those opinions.

    Apple seemingly made a big deal about the 5G speed side of 5G. I didn't expect anything else! Reason to celebrate for sure. 

    But there is also reason to be realistic. The hardware looks to be last year's X55 and Huawei (just 3 hours ago) revealed its latest 5nm part. An on-SoC 5G modem which it claims is fives times faster than the X55 at uploads and twice as fast for downloads. Those apparently are field tested numbers. We will see.

    As for production, you will find numerous articles out there (I've provided some of them to you in the past) on Huawei chipsets entering production before or in parallel to Apple's. However, the point you miss is that Huawei's SoCs are normally released before Apple's. Even this year's SoC was scheduled for the end of August but delayed due to geopolitics.

    How exactly were they able to do this befote Apple? 
    FFS,

    Huawei isn't going to be able to build more than 8 million flagship devices, and Qualcomm will probably ship a ton of X60 to competitors of Huawei. Next year, Apple will get the X60, or better, and Huawei will not be delivering any of its Kirin's. Who knows where they will get any leading edge SOC's, other than Samsung or Qualcomm. At some point, data bandwidth isn't a customer priority anymore, so who cares about theoretical modem performance.

    Meanwhile, Apple will probably ship 150 to 160 million iPhone 12's in FY21. How are those "key areas" actually working out "as a business model" for Huawei. All I see is the "national champion" of China getting a beatdown in the near future. 

    As for the iPhone, come back to me when Huawei gets into striking distance of Apple's ASP and margins, because Apple's iPhone business model is class leading. I might live another 30 years, so, they better hurry up. 


    edited October 2020 watto_cobra
  • Reply 14 of 28
    avon b7avon b7 Posts: 6,498member
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    wood1208 said:
    Qualcomm planned carefully to release X60 right after Apple's iPhone 12 design schedule was locked in and changing that could delay iPhone 12 release into 2021. Well played Qualcomm!!
    This isn't correct. The X60 roll out was planned long before Apple even signed on with them. 

    Qualcomm stated that the X60 would be available 'at the very earliest' by the end of this year. That has never changed.

    There was an extremely slim chance that Apple would get some kind of prererential access to it as part of the 'kiss and make up' deal, which itself was part of a race against the clock effort to get any kind of 5G modem into an iPhone this year because Intel failed at delivering the goods.

    It is supremely unfortunate, but not unexpected, that Apple may have ended up with last year's hardware on this year's phone's. Especially as the X60 will be shipping on competing phones within weeks.

    But from Apple's perspective, having 5G now is a win.

    And it's is perhaps ironic that this news appears on the very same day that Huawei is likely to launch the world's first 5nm on-SoC 5G modem. 
    Qualcomm was never going to get any TMSC 5nm production ahead of Apple, so Apple would have been quite aware that the X60 wouldn't be in production prior to the release of the A14 and the iPhones 12.

    My recent readings on Huawei's 5nm Kirin 9000, is that they will only get 8.8 million units, not the 15 million units that they wanted from TMSC. Being first isn't going to be all that meaningful this time around as I'd surmise that many of those SOC's will see be sold internally into the market in China. That leaves world wide opportunities for Qualcomm, and OPPO, Xiaomi, and Samsung to replace Huawei in the marketplace.

    https://www.gizchina.com/2020/09/28/huawei-flagship-tablet-to-use-the-kirin-9000-soc-will-be-scarce/

    The Mate 40 will use the Kirin 9000, but it doesn't sell anywhere close to the volumes of iPhones.

    Apple will need a production of something on the order of 175 million A14 / A14X processors alone for FY21(iPhones and iPads), not to mention the Apple Silicon that is coming at the end of the year for the new Mac's. 
    I don't know why you are so sure of Qualcomm's impossibility of getting 5nm before Apple. 

    After all TSMC was manufacturing for Apple and Huawei at the same time and you seem to be forgetting the Samsung fabs.

    And just last week you claimed the iPhone 12 would ship with an X60 (and did you say it was on SoC too?) 

    The possibility was there but it would have been touch and go and probably mean a delay in release times. It seems it hasn't played out that way. 

    How many Kirin 9000s are produced has nothing to do with anything. That is a geopolitical issue. 

    And you seem to ignore the fact that Apple always had the option to include the X60 but in a different model released at a later date. 
    As it turns out, I was wrong about the X60, but as it stands, it isn't going to be a big issue, ie, battery life, per reviews, as most people aren't going to be using mmwave consistently through the day. And no, I didn't believe that Apple would delay the iPhone 12 beyond what it was; a few weeks.

    Do you have evidence that Apple and Huawei were in process at TMSC at the same time? Because, it is common knowledge that Apple is the largest source of revenue by far at TMSC, and they do seem to have stuffed the competition with early orders. Some analysts are expecting 80 million iPhones sold during this quarter,  

    The available Kirin 9000's, and any other Kirin SOC, has everything to do with what Huawei can ship. There isn't TMSC production available anymore at leading nodes, and there are restrictions on Silicon manufacturing equipment, and as well software for silicon design, exports to China. That leaves Huawei with having to purchase off the self SOC's from other sources. 

    Given the number of very positive reviews and early preorders of the two available iPhone 12 models, it looks like Apple has not been affected at all by releasing a 5G model after Android OS device competitors, and there's an expectation of sales in the 200 million to 220 million unit range for FY21.

    My recollection is you posted a number of "doom" scenarios for Apple that never occurred. This might be a good time to retract those.
    You are now asking me to retract things I never said? 

    Doom? 

    You must be confusing me with someone else. I've given my opinion on why I think Apple stalled and fell behind competing flagships in key areas. On the iPhone business model too. 

    The iPhone 12 is not a major jump in any of those key areas when pitted against competing phones. 

    Apple has pretty much reacted with moves that line up very well with those opinions.

    Apple seemingly made a big deal about the 5G speed side of 5G. I didn't expect anything else! Reason to celebrate for sure. 

    But there is also reason to be realistic. The hardware looks to be last year's X55 and Huawei (just 3 hours ago) revealed its latest 5nm part. An on-SoC 5G modem which it claims is fives times faster than the X55 at uploads and twice as fast for downloads. Those apparently are field tested numbers. We will see.

    As for production, you will find numerous articles out there (I've provided some of them to you in the past) on Huawei chipsets entering production before or in parallel to Apple's. However, the point you miss is that Huawei's SoCs are normally released before Apple's. Even this year's SoC was scheduled for the end of August but delayed due to geopolitics.

    How exactly were they able to do this befote Apple? 
    FFS,

    Huawei isn't going to be able to build more than 8 million flagship devices, and Qualcomm will probably ship a ton of X60 to competitors of Huawei. Next year, Apple will get the X60, or better, and Huawei will not be delivering any of its Kirin's. Who knows where they will get any leading edge SOC's, other than Samsung or Qualcomm. At some point, data bandwidth isn't a customer priority anymore, so who cares about theoretical modem performance.

    Meanwhile, Apple will probably ship 150 to 160 million iPhone 12's in FY21. How are those "key areas" actually working out "as a business model" for Huawei. All I see is the "national champion" of China getting a beatdown in the near future. 

    As for the iPhone, come back to me when Huawei gets into striking distance of Apple's ASP and margins, because Apple's iPhone business model is class leading. I might live another 30 years, so, they better hurry up. 


    So you move the goalposts again!

    So iPhone 12 isn't even really in users hands and you already jump to next year's iPhones!

    So, do you now accept what I said about Huawei's TSMC process node fabrication timings? 

    Numbers have little to do with anything in this, we are talking technology and you forget that Huawei and Qualcomm sell to each other and have been doing so for years. 

    GeorgeBMac
  • Reply 15 of 28
    GeorgeBMacGeorgeBMac Posts: 11,421member
    avon b7 said:
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    wood1208 said:
    Qualcomm planned carefully to release X60 right after Apple's iPhone 12 design schedule was locked in and changing that could delay iPhone 12 release into 2021. Well played Qualcomm!!
    This isn't correct. The X60 roll out was planned long before Apple even signed on with them. 

    Qualcomm stated that the X60 would be available 'at the very earliest' by the end of this year. That has never changed.

    There was an extremely slim chance that Apple would get some kind of prererential access to it as part of the 'kiss and make up' deal, which itself was part of a race against the clock effort to get any kind of 5G modem into an iPhone this year because Intel failed at delivering the goods.

    It is supremely unfortunate, but not unexpected, that Apple may have ended up with last year's hardware on this year's phone's. Especially as the X60 will be shipping on competing phones within weeks.

    But from Apple's perspective, having 5G now is a win.

    And it's is perhaps ironic that this news appears on the very same day that Huawei is likely to launch the world's first 5nm on-SoC 5G modem. 
    Qualcomm was never going to get any TMSC 5nm production ahead of Apple, so Apple would have been quite aware that the X60 wouldn't be in production prior to the release of the A14 and the iPhones 12.

    My recent readings on Huawei's 5nm Kirin 9000, is that they will only get 8.8 million units, not the 15 million units that they wanted from TMSC. Being first isn't going to be all that meaningful this time around as I'd surmise that many of those SOC's will see be sold internally into the market in China. That leaves world wide opportunities for Qualcomm, and OPPO, Xiaomi, and Samsung to replace Huawei in the marketplace.

    https://www.gizchina.com/2020/09/28/huawei-flagship-tablet-to-use-the-kirin-9000-soc-will-be-scarce/

    The Mate 40 will use the Kirin 9000, but it doesn't sell anywhere close to the volumes of iPhones.

    Apple will need a production of something on the order of 175 million A14 / A14X processors alone for FY21(iPhones and iPads), not to mention the Apple Silicon that is coming at the end of the year for the new Mac's. 
    I don't know why you are so sure of Qualcomm's impossibility of getting 5nm before Apple. 

    After all TSMC was manufacturing for Apple and Huawei at the same time and you seem to be forgetting the Samsung fabs.

    And just last week you claimed the iPhone 12 would ship with an X60 (and did you say it was on SoC too?) 

    The possibility was there but it would have been touch and go and probably mean a delay in release times. It seems it hasn't played out that way. 

    How many Kirin 9000s are produced has nothing to do with anything. That is a geopolitical issue. 

    And you seem to ignore the fact that Apple always had the option to include the X60 but in a different model released at a later date. 
    As it turns out, I was wrong about the X60, but as it stands, it isn't going to be a big issue, ie, battery life, per reviews, as most people aren't going to be using mmwave consistently through the day. And no, I didn't believe that Apple would delay the iPhone 12 beyond what it was; a few weeks.

    Do you have evidence that Apple and Huawei were in process at TMSC at the same time? Because, it is common knowledge that Apple is the largest source of revenue by far at TMSC, and they do seem to have stuffed the competition with early orders. Some analysts are expecting 80 million iPhones sold during this quarter,  

    The available Kirin 9000's, and any other Kirin SOC, has everything to do with what Huawei can ship. There isn't TMSC production available anymore at leading nodes, and there are restrictions on Silicon manufacturing equipment, and as well software for silicon design, exports to China. That leaves Huawei with having to purchase off the self SOC's from other sources. 

    Given the number of very positive reviews and early preorders of the two available iPhone 12 models, it looks like Apple has not been affected at all by releasing a 5G model after Android OS device competitors, and there's an expectation of sales in the 200 million to 220 million unit range for FY21.

    My recollection is you posted a number of "doom" scenarios for Apple that never occurred. This might be a good time to retract those.
    You are now asking me to retract things I never said? 

    Doom? 

    You must be confusing me with someone else. I've given my opinion on why I think Apple stalled and fell behind competing flagships in key areas. On the iPhone business model too. 

    The iPhone 12 is not a major jump in any of those key areas when pitted against competing phones. 

    Apple has pretty much reacted with moves that line up very well with those opinions.

    Apple seemingly made a big deal about the 5G speed side of 5G. I didn't expect anything else! Reason to celebrate for sure. 

    But there is also reason to be realistic. The hardware looks to be last year's X55 and Huawei (just 3 hours ago) revealed its latest 5nm part. An on-SoC 5G modem which it claims is fives times faster than the X55 at uploads and twice as fast for downloads. Those apparently are field tested numbers. We will see.

    As for production, you will find numerous articles out there (I've provided some of them to you in the past) on Huawei chipsets entering production before or in parallel to Apple's. However, the point you miss is that Huawei's SoCs are normally released before Apple's. Even this year's SoC was scheduled for the end of August but delayed due to geopolitics.

    How exactly were they able to do this befote Apple? 

    Apple has really just taken over the IBM model:   IBM never had the latest or the fastest or the biggest.   Just the best -- when considered in its entirety.   That would be things like functionality, reliability, user friendliness, support, etc.

    Just as the saying "Nobody ever got fired for buying IBM", today that might be adapted to:   "Nobody ever regretted buying from Apple".  
    watto_cobra
  • Reply 16 of 28
    GeorgeBMacGeorgeBMac Posts: 11,421member
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    wood1208 said:
    Qualcomm planned carefully to release X60 right after Apple's iPhone 12 design schedule was locked in and changing that could delay iPhone 12 release into 2021. Well played Qualcomm!!
    This isn't correct. The X60 roll out was planned long before Apple even signed on with them. 

    Qualcomm stated that the X60 would be available 'at the very earliest' by the end of this year. That has never changed.

    There was an extremely slim chance that Apple would get some kind of prererential access to it as part of the 'kiss and make up' deal, which itself was part of a race against the clock effort to get any kind of 5G modem into an iPhone this year because Intel failed at delivering the goods.

    It is supremely unfortunate, but not unexpected, that Apple may have ended up with last year's hardware on this year's phone's. Especially as the X60 will be shipping on competing phones within weeks.

    But from Apple's perspective, having 5G now is a win.

    And it's is perhaps ironic that this news appears on the very same day that Huawei is likely to launch the world's first 5nm on-SoC 5G modem. 
    Qualcomm was never going to get any TMSC 5nm production ahead of Apple, so Apple would have been quite aware that the X60 wouldn't be in production prior to the release of the A14 and the iPhones 12.

    My recent readings on Huawei's 5nm Kirin 9000, is that they will only get 8.8 million units, not the 15 million units that they wanted from TMSC. Being first isn't going to be all that meaningful this time around as I'd surmise that many of those SOC's will see be sold internally into the market in China. That leaves world wide opportunities for Qualcomm, and OPPO, Xiaomi, and Samsung to replace Huawei in the marketplace.

    https://www.gizchina.com/2020/09/28/huawei-flagship-tablet-to-use-the-kirin-9000-soc-will-be-scarce/

    The Mate 40 will use the Kirin 9000, but it doesn't sell anywhere close to the volumes of iPhones.

    Apple will need a production of something on the order of 175 million A14 / A14X processors alone for FY21(iPhones and iPads), not to mention the Apple Silicon that is coming at the end of the year for the new Mac's. 
    I don't know why you are so sure of Qualcomm's impossibility of getting 5nm before Apple. 

    After all TSMC was manufacturing for Apple and Huawei at the same time and you seem to be forgetting the Samsung fabs.

    And just last week you claimed the iPhone 12 would ship with an X60 (and did you say it was on SoC too?) 

    The possibility was there but it would have been touch and go and probably mean a delay in release times. It seems it hasn't played out that way. 

    How many Kirin 9000s are produced has nothing to do with anything. That is a geopolitical issue. 

    And you seem to ignore the fact that Apple always had the option to include the X60 but in a different model released at a later date. 
    As it turns out, I was wrong about the X60, but as it stands, it isn't going to be a big issue, ie, battery life, per reviews, as most people aren't going to be using mmwave consistently through the day. And no, I didn't believe that Apple would delay the iPhone 12 beyond what it was; a few weeks.

    Do you have evidence that Apple and Huawei were in process at TMSC at the same time? Because, it is common knowledge that Apple is the largest source of revenue by far at TMSC, and they do seem to have stuffed the competition with early orders. Some analysts are expecting 80 million iPhones sold during this quarter,  

    The available Kirin 9000's, and any other Kirin SOC, has everything to do with what Huawei can ship. There isn't TMSC production available anymore at leading nodes, and there are restrictions on Silicon manufacturing equipment, and as well software for silicon design, exports to China. That leaves Huawei with having to purchase off the self SOC's from other sources. 

    Given the number of very positive reviews and early preorders of the two available iPhone 12 models, it looks like Apple has not been affected at all by releasing a 5G model after Android OS device competitors, and there's an expectation of sales in the 200 million to 220 million unit range for FY21.

    My recollection is you posted a number of "doom" scenarios for Apple that never occurred. This might be a good time to retract those.
    You are now asking me to retract things I never said? 

    Doom? 

    You must be confusing me with someone else. I've given my opinion on why I think Apple stalled and fell behind competing flagships in key areas. On the iPhone business model too. 

    The iPhone 12 is not a major jump in any of those key areas when pitted against competing phones. 

    Apple has pretty much reacted with moves that line up very well with those opinions.

    Apple seemingly made a big deal about the 5G speed side of 5G. I didn't expect anything else! Reason to celebrate for sure. 

    But there is also reason to be realistic. The hardware looks to be last year's X55 and Huawei (just 3 hours ago) revealed its latest 5nm part. An on-SoC 5G modem which it claims is fives times faster than the X55 at uploads and twice as fast for downloads. Those apparently are field tested numbers. We will see.

    As for production, you will find numerous articles out there (I've provided some of them to you in the past) on Huawei chipsets entering production before or in parallel to Apple's. However, the point you miss is that Huawei's SoCs are normally released before Apple's. Even this year's SoC was scheduled for the end of August but delayed due to geopolitics.

    How exactly were they able to do this befote Apple? 
    FFS,

    Huawei isn't going to be able to build more than 8 million flagship devices, and Qualcomm will probably ship a ton of X60 to competitors of Huawei. Next year, Apple will get the X60, or better, and Huawei will not be delivering any of its Kirin's. Who knows where they will get any leading edge SOC's, other than Samsung or Qualcomm. At some point, data bandwidth isn't a customer priority anymore, so who cares about theoretical modem performance.

    Meanwhile, Apple will probably ship 150 to 160 million iPhone 12's in FY21. How are those "key areas" actually working out "as a business model" for Huawei. All I see is the "national champion" of China getting a beatdown in the near future. 

    As for the iPhone, come back to me when Huawei gets into striking distance of Apple's ASP and margins, because Apple's iPhone business model is class leading. I might live another 30 years, so, they better hurry up. 



    Right now it looks like the guy attacking Huawei is going to be Fired.
    His replacement won't back off of China, but neither will he be doing stupid things, making baseless accusations, nor threatening allies.
  • Reply 17 of 28
    tmaytmay Posts: 5,824member
    avon b7 said:
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    wood1208 said:
    Qualcomm planned carefully to release X60 right after Apple's iPhone 12 design schedule was locked in and changing that could delay iPhone 12 release into 2021. Well played Qualcomm!!
    This isn't correct. The X60 roll out was planned long before Apple even signed on with them. 

    Qualcomm stated that the X60 would be available 'at the very earliest' by the end of this year. That has never changed.

    There was an extremely slim chance that Apple would get some kind of prererential access to it as part of the 'kiss and make up' deal, which itself was part of a race against the clock effort to get any kind of 5G modem into an iPhone this year because Intel failed at delivering the goods.

    It is supremely unfortunate, but not unexpected, that Apple may have ended up with last year's hardware on this year's phone's. Especially as the X60 will be shipping on competing phones within weeks.

    But from Apple's perspective, having 5G now is a win.

    And it's is perhaps ironic that this news appears on the very same day that Huawei is likely to launch the world's first 5nm on-SoC 5G modem. 
    Qualcomm was never going to get any TMSC 5nm production ahead of Apple, so Apple would have been quite aware that the X60 wouldn't be in production prior to the release of the A14 and the iPhones 12.

    My recent readings on Huawei's 5nm Kirin 9000, is that they will only get 8.8 million units, not the 15 million units that they wanted from TMSC. Being first isn't going to be all that meaningful this time around as I'd surmise that many of those SOC's will see be sold internally into the market in China. That leaves world wide opportunities for Qualcomm, and OPPO, Xiaomi, and Samsung to replace Huawei in the marketplace.

    https://www.gizchina.com/2020/09/28/huawei-flagship-tablet-to-use-the-kirin-9000-soc-will-be-scarce/

    The Mate 40 will use the Kirin 9000, but it doesn't sell anywhere close to the volumes of iPhones.

    Apple will need a production of something on the order of 175 million A14 / A14X processors alone for FY21(iPhones and iPads), not to mention the Apple Silicon that is coming at the end of the year for the new Mac's. 
    I don't know why you are so sure of Qualcomm's impossibility of getting 5nm before Apple. 

    After all TSMC was manufacturing for Apple and Huawei at the same time and you seem to be forgetting the Samsung fabs.

    And just last week you claimed the iPhone 12 would ship with an X60 (and did you say it was on SoC too?) 

    The possibility was there but it would have been touch and go and probably mean a delay in release times. It seems it hasn't played out that way. 

    How many Kirin 9000s are produced has nothing to do with anything. That is a geopolitical issue. 

    And you seem to ignore the fact that Apple always had the option to include the X60 but in a different model released at a later date. 
    As it turns out, I was wrong about the X60, but as it stands, it isn't going to be a big issue, ie, battery life, per reviews, as most people aren't going to be using mmwave consistently through the day. And no, I didn't believe that Apple would delay the iPhone 12 beyond what it was; a few weeks.

    Do you have evidence that Apple and Huawei were in process at TMSC at the same time? Because, it is common knowledge that Apple is the largest source of revenue by far at TMSC, and they do seem to have stuffed the competition with early orders. Some analysts are expecting 80 million iPhones sold during this quarter,  

    The available Kirin 9000's, and any other Kirin SOC, has everything to do with what Huawei can ship. There isn't TMSC production available anymore at leading nodes, and there are restrictions on Silicon manufacturing equipment, and as well software for silicon design, exports to China. That leaves Huawei with having to purchase off the self SOC's from other sources. 

    Given the number of very positive reviews and early preorders of the two available iPhone 12 models, it looks like Apple has not been affected at all by releasing a 5G model after Android OS device competitors, and there's an expectation of sales in the 200 million to 220 million unit range for FY21.

    My recollection is you posted a number of "doom" scenarios for Apple that never occurred. This might be a good time to retract those.
    You are now asking me to retract things I never said? 

    Doom? 

    You must be confusing me with someone else. I've given my opinion on why I think Apple stalled and fell behind competing flagships in key areas. On the iPhone business model too. 

    The iPhone 12 is not a major jump in any of those key areas when pitted against competing phones. 

    Apple has pretty much reacted with moves that line up very well with those opinions.

    Apple seemingly made a big deal about the 5G speed side of 5G. I didn't expect anything else! Reason to celebrate for sure. 

    But there is also reason to be realistic. The hardware looks to be last year's X55 and Huawei (just 3 hours ago) revealed its latest 5nm part. An on-SoC 5G modem which it claims is fives times faster than the X55 at uploads and twice as fast for downloads. Those apparently are field tested numbers. We will see.

    As for production, you will find numerous articles out there (I've provided some of them to you in the past) on Huawei chipsets entering production before or in parallel to Apple's. However, the point you miss is that Huawei's SoCs are normally released before Apple's. Even this year's SoC was scheduled for the end of August but delayed due to geopolitics.

    How exactly were they able to do this befote Apple? 
    FFS,

    Huawei isn't going to be able to build more than 8 million flagship devices, and Qualcomm will probably ship a ton of X60 to competitors of Huawei. Next year, Apple will get the X60, or better, and Huawei will not be delivering any of its Kirin's. Who knows where they will get any leading edge SOC's, other than Samsung or Qualcomm. At some point, data bandwidth isn't a customer priority anymore, so who cares about theoretical modem performance.

    Meanwhile, Apple will probably ship 150 to 160 million iPhone 12's in FY21. How are those "key areas" actually working out "as a business model" for Huawei. All I see is the "national champion" of China getting a beatdown in the near future. 

    As for the iPhone, come back to me when Huawei gets into striking distance of Apple's ASP and margins, because Apple's iPhone business model is class leading. I might live another 30 years, so, they better hurry up. 


    So you move the goalposts again!

    So iPhone 12 isn't even really in users hands and you already jump to next year's iPhones!

    So, do you now accept what I said about Huawei's TSMC process node fabrication timings? 

    Numbers have little to do with anything in this, we are talking technology and you forget that Huawei and Qualcomm sell to each other and have been doing so for years. 

    I don't accept anything that you state about Huawei's TSMC fab timing. Please provide links to indicate that, because the link that I posted, stated that Huawei wanted 15 million, and they only received 8 million. Apple, on the other hand, is expected to ship 50 to 60 million of the new iPhones by the end of the year. That's is an indication that Huawei didn't get what they wanted, and not when they wanted it either.

    EDIT;

    I actually remember that conversation about the announcement of the Kirin 970 before Apple released it's iPhone X with the A11 Bionic SOC. Funny how you could never convince me that Huawei actually had earlier production, but released their flagship P20 series weeks after Apple had shipped something on the order of its first 10 Million. You seem to confuse the SOC's that Huawei received from tapeout with production, and you make that mistake every year. If Huawei is always first in line, how come they can never deliver its P series before Apple delivers its iPhones?
    So iPhone 12 isn't even really in users hands and you already jump to next year's iPhones!
    Uhm, that's not what I implied or stated, which was that a year from now, Apple would again get the latest Qualcomm modem available, and Huawei would have to buy an off the shelf SOC, from either Qualcomm or Samsung. In the meantime, there is very little issue with the X55 other than battery life while used for mmwave.

    For the record, this is exactly about numbers. Huawei is constrained, and competitors are lined up to exploit this opening. 

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/zakdoffman/2020/10/18/huawei-fallout-game-changing-new-china-threat-strikes-at-apple-and-samsung/#d67ce7e62d62

    "Absent a U.S. backtrack, a huge Huawei-shaped hole will open up in next year’s global smartphone sector, a sales game-changer for the industry. A blacklist-induced shortage of chipsets looks set to send Huawei sales plummeting when current stockpiles run down. While this appears to be a stunning opportunity for Apple and Samsung, that’s under threat. China inc. is confident that Huawei’s recipe for success can be replicated and is moving quickly to do so.

    First out of the blocks to rinse and repeat Huawei’s “premium smartphones for less” strategy has been the much smaller Xiaomi, which beat Huawei in Europe for the first time in the second quarter this year, its revenues soared 65% as Huawei shrunk. Xiaomi moved into third place, behind Samsung and Apple. More notably, Xiaomi saw exports of premium devices (€300 plus) up more than 99% year-on-year.

    Xiaomi has positioned itself as Huawei’s likely Chinese export successor, but that’s about to change. China’s Oppo is only just behind Xiaomi for overall global sales, but much larger in China itself. Counterpoint highlights Oppo as the other Chinese brand to watch. “Geopolitical policies and political affairs among nations are affecting the smartphone market in many ways—we see players like Samsung, Apple, Xiaomi and Oppo benefiting the most.” Oppo is part of BBK, which also has Vivo in its stable, and is a serious competitor to Apple and Samsung globally."

    I would point out that I completely disagree that Xiaomi and Oppo are competition for Apple as Apple's iPhone is its own market, and sees little competition from Android OS device makers.

    edited October 2020 GG1shark5150watto_cobra
  • Reply 18 of 28
    bulk001 said:
    iPhone 13 seems to be the one to get unless you absolutely can’t wait another year. Really not much to upgrade to in 12 and with a case, one can’t even show off that don’t have an old and obsolete 11! ߘ妡mp;nbsp;
    The camera upgrade makes it very desirable to me and I'll be upgrading from an iPhone 11 Pro Max. There are a lot of clear cases available to show off the iPhone. 
    Just because you can't see any reason to upgrade, doesn't mean no one else can.
    Oh please. If you are such an avid photographer you would buy an SLR with lenses to go with it.  But if delusion floats your boat by all means go for it. It’s like saying “0 to 60 in 5 minutes is just so desirable to me ... I really must have the new Kia” 
    edited October 2020
  • Reply 19 of 28
    MplsPMplsP Posts: 3,714member
    Next year's "iPhone 13" models are likely to come equipped with the X60 modems, however. That'll bring significant improvements to battery performance, chip size, and connectivity.

    This alone is a good reason to wait on purchasing a new phone unless you absolutely need a new one this year. There is no use for 5G yet and 5G modems are still improving. Waiting will give you a better modem with less power consumption without losing out on anything.
    GeorgeBMac
  • Reply 20 of 28
    MplsPMplsP Posts: 3,714member

    Apple's new 5G-equipped iPhone 12 models appear to sport Qualcomm's Snapdragon X55 modem, according to early teardowns of the devices.

    Credit: Weibo
    Credit: Weibo


    Although the iPhone 12 doesn't officially start arriving on customer doorsteps until Oct. 23, teardown videos and internal photos of the new models have surface on Chinese social media.

    One particular clip posted to Weibo appears to show an L-shaped iPhone logic board equipped with the Qualcomm 5G modem. Although the video doesn't show the iPhone being torn down, the logic boards appear identical to those seen in other confirmed teardowns.



    That lines up with predictions that Apple would use the second-generation Qualcomm 5G chip in its 2020 iPhone devices. Although Qualcomm has a newer X60 chip available, that product debuted too late to be included in Apple's iPhone 12 lineup.

    All four iPhone 12 and iPhone 12 Pro models support both sub-6GHz 5G and mmWave in the U.S., with models in other countries supporting only low-band 5G connectivity.

    Apple settled a long-running legal dispute with Qualcomm to gain access to its 5G chip technology in 2019. Although Apple opted for Intel chips in the iPhone 11 lineup, it became clear that Intel wasn't going to be able to deliver 5G chips.

    Next year's "iPhone 13" models are likely to come equipped with the X60 modems, however. That'll bring significant improvements to battery performance, chip size, and connectivity.

    Apple, for its part, has already signaled that it plans to use upcoming Qualcomm chips in future iPhones until at least 2024. That's according to text within the Apple and Qualcomm settlement filing that specifically mentions the as-of-yet unannounced X65 and X70 modems.

    That, for me, might be a good reason to hold off buying an iPhone till next year:
    By mid 2021 Apple and Qualcomm will have far more experience in 5G and how it operates in a real world environment -- so the chip, antennas and software could all be greatly improved providing better connectivity for less power.

    Plus, 5G (in the U.S.) should be greatly expanded and matured over the next 12 months making a 5G phone more valuable than it is now.

    Plus, I don't really need a new iPhone and was mostly interested because of all the significant enhancements of the iPhone 12 over the 11 or the X series.
    Wait.. you've spent the last year screaming how "5G is here now!" and "any phone without 5G is obsolete!" but suddenly you're totally ok waiting another year? How are you going to survive with an obsolete phone? More importantly, how are you going to survive without 5G and all the wonderful things it does?
    tmayGG1watto_cobra
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