Apple could be Tesla's biggest threat, analyst says



  • Reply 41 of 41
    tmay said:

    steven n. said:
    tmay said:
    Tesla has something on the order of 20% of the BEV market, right at 500,000 units sold for 2020, and as the number of BEV models increases in the market, Tesla will see its unit marketshare shrink, and that's going to be readily apparent in 2021.

    Worse for Tesla, Model S and Model X sales are being cannibalized by Model 3 and Model Y sales, which is driving down the ASP of Tesla vehicles.

    Numbers for 2020,

    345,000 Model 3
    80,000 Model Y
    55,000 combined Model S and Model X

    Apple won'f have any impact on Tesla sales for another 4 or 5 years, so all of that competition is coming from the "dinosaurs" like VW, Chinese EV companies, and a few new entrants which may or may not survive.

    Tesla's biggest fuckup, is not having an EV pickup until, at best, late next year, when Ford will be delivering an F-150 EV in volume production, not to mention GM with a Hummer model.
    The 20% is for 2019. Tesla is up to 26% of the BEV market. My guess it is around 50% of the revenue. 
    My error. I was quoting EV numbers, not BEV numbers, but my point about Tesla losing BEV share this year is accurate.

    The Volkswagen Group capped off 2020 with 231,600 deliveries of battery-electric vehicles, or more than triple the 73,600 it delivered in 2019.

    It was a bright spot for the automaker whose total deliveries in 2020 declined 15.2% to 9,305,400 vehicles, due to the slowdown caused by Covid-19 restrictions.

    In comparison, Tesla, the current leader in the EV race (and most valuable automaker based on market cap), delivered 499,550 vehicles in 2020, up roughly a third on its 2019 result.

    The results suggest Tesla may not hold its leading position for long. It may even be overtaken by VW Group this year, which is only starting to provide some real competition in the EV space.

    Did you even read what I wrote. Tesla’s share went from 20% to 26% BEV share 2019 to 2020.
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