UK's NHS coronavirus tracing app prevented thousands of deaths, study claims

AppleInsider

After adopting the Apple/Google coronavirus exposure notification technology, the UK's NHS app is reported to have saved up to 8,700 lives.

The UK's COVID contact-tracing app

The UK's controversial COVID app -- initially rejecting the Apple/Google model, then failing at a cost of millions of pounds -- is reported to have saved thousands of lives.

According to BBC News, a report into the effect of the app estimates between 4,200 and 8,700 deaths were prevented. The report was written in part by the makers of the app, but it's now been peer-reviewed and accepted for publication by Nature magazine.

From the app's release on September 24, 2020, to the end of that year, research says that it was "used regularly" by 28% of the UK population. It's not clear what the definition of regular use is, but it was used by 16.5 million people in this period.

The app found a total of 560,000 positive reports, and sent around 1.7 million exposure notifications to other people.

Researchers say that they used two different methodologies for estimating the effectiveness of the app in this period. A data modelling approach concluded that the app prevented 284,000 cases of COVID, while a statistical analysis suggested 594,000.

"On balance, an effect size between the two estimates seems most likely," the researchers told BBC News.

They also suggest, however, that the figure could be much higher, because app users were more conscious of the need for social distancing. "[They could] maintain a greater distance from others than they otherwise would have done," continued the researchers, "aware that the app monitors distance and could later advise quarantine."

While the study concluded in December 2020, the app has continued to be used. Most recently, however, both Apple and Google blocked an update -- keeping the older version available -- because the UK government wanted to break the agreements about location tracking.

Stay on top of all Apple news right from your HomePod. Say, "Hey, Siri, play AppleInsider," and you'll get latest AppleInsider Podcast. Or ask your HomePod mini for "AppleInsider Daily" instead and you'll hear a fast update direct from our news team. And, if you're interested in Apple-centric home automation, say "Hey, Siri, play HomeKit Insider," and you'll be listening to our newest specialized podcast in moments.

GeorgeBMac

It is not and never has been a "tracing app".   Even Apple and Google removed that language because it was false.

Had western countries established effective testing and tracing programs early on many hundreds of thousands who are now dead would be alive.

But, instead of removing the infectious from our streets, businesses and schools, we were told to huddle in our homes while the virus raged outside our doors.

r002092

GeorgeBMac said:

It is not and never has been a "tracing app".   Even Apple and Google removed that language because it was false.

Had western countries established effective testing and tracing programs early on many hundreds of thousands who are now dead would be alive.

But, instead of removing the infectious from our streets, businesses and schools, we were told to huddle in our homes while the virus raged outside our doors.

I mean they call it Exposure Notifications but on their own sites they very much talk about how it helps with contact tracing.

Also… the virus was suppressed outside our doors because we were huddled inside our homes… granted effective test and trace from the outset MAY have prevented that but we actually have no way of knowing that for sure, since the only thing that has really been shown to suppress the spread in any country has included an element of mass isolation

cogitodexter

GeorgeBMac said:

But, instead of removing the infectious from our streets, businesses and schools, we were told to huddle in our homes while the virus raged outside our doors.

If we actually HAD all huddled in our homes, the virus would have burnt itself out in 4 weeks since there would have been nobody else it could have infected other than those we lived with. The virus only 'rages' when it has the opportunity to be transmitted.

The whole point of the app is to identify exposure so that the right people 'huddle'. Testing only works if you have a continuous daily testing regime for absolutely everyone. Tracing only works if people can reliably identify who their contacts are. Since no country that calls itself even remotely free can ever hope to achieve that, the app provided a valuable tool for people to be informed of their risk of exposure. It's entirely reasonable to carry out such a statistical exercise to identify the lives saved as a result of people knowing they need to 'huddle' indoors.

semi_guy

r002092 said:

Also… the virus was suppressed outside our doors because we were huddled inside our homes… granted effective test and trace from the outset MAY have prevented that but we actually have no way of knowing that for sure, since the only thing that has really been shown to suppress the spread in any country has included an element of mass isolation

If we actually had done that we would not be dealing with this virus a year later. But that was impossible, people need to get food and groceries, many had to work, many had to care for those that got sick and family members that could care for themselves, many still disobeyed the rules and went out to rallies, parties, and spring breaks, and so on. If all the people that went out actually wore masks and kept social distance, then this virus would have been wiped out in a few weeks. Sadly, many did not believe the virus, much less wearing masks and compromised the rest.

Moreover, if the virus did not spread by asymptomatic carriers, it would be easy to spot who was contagious and keep distant while in public. Contact tracing is to identify those that really need to isolate and follow the rules because someone next to them was asymptomatic, did not wear a mask properly, or kept socially distant and could have potentially transmitted it to the user.

techrider

I haven’t read the entire report, but I generally support using contact tracing apps in addition to traditional contact tracing methods.

In Canada, a federal app was released in August 2020, built using the same Apple/Google exposure notification tech.  I downloaded it right away. 

However, my provincial-level health authority  (i.e. state-level) decided not to utilize it, although they did invest time with the feds to see if it could be modified to make it utilized.

Their explanation was vague. As I understand it the app, as-is, creates far more work for the health authority’s resources (contact tracers, testers, and other support) than it would overall benefit the region.

I’m not an expert on contact tracing, but I am disappointed they couldn’t ‘make it workable’, because the value of an app like this includes empowering every smartphone owner to see the impact of their daily decision to leave their home, or otherwise have an interaction with others. 

I believe the app can therefore influence users to make thoughtful choices, that ultimately prevent unnecessary exposure. 

Give people information to make better choices.

mr lizard

AppleInsider said:

The UK's controversial COVID app -- initially rejecting the Apple/Google model, then failing at a cost of millions of pounds .
 

There was and is no such thing as a UK COVID app. This bungled app was the England & Wales app, where they spent ridiculous amounts of money on a failed initial launch. Scotland and Northern Ireland released their own apps based on the Google/Apple API from the very start. 

The Scottish and NI apps were also not subject to being blocked on the app stores unlike the England & Wales version due to adding the ‘check in’ feature, which of course collects personally identifiable information and was against the API’s terms of use. More money wasted. 

Scotland and NI released separate check-in apps and so avoided this issue. 

GeorgeBMac

cogitodexter said:

GeorgeBMac said:

But, instead of removing the infectious from our streets, businesses and schools, we were told to huddle in our homes while the virus raged outside our doors.

If we actually HAD all huddled in our homes, the virus would have burnt itself out in 4 weeks since there would have been nobody else it could have infected other than those we lived with. The virus only 'rages' when it has the opportunity to be transmitted.

The whole point of the app is to identify exposure so that the right people 'huddle'. Testing only works if you have a continuous daily testing regime for absolutely everyone. Tracing only works if people can reliably identify who their contacts are. Since no country that calls itself even remotely free can ever hope to achieve that, the app provided a valuable tool for people to be informed of their risk of exposure. It's entirely reasonable to carry out such a statistical exercise to identify the lives saved as a result of people knowing they need to 'huddle' indoors.

Testing and tracing has been used by western countries for 100 years.  But this time we abandoned it.

South Korea did very well with it and never had to shut down.

Instead of huddling in their homes they instituted an effective testing and tracing program and instead of hiding, removed the infectious from their streets, businesses and schools.  They're tracers used every means available to trace who the infectious might have infected not just memory.   It worked.

But, it was aided by the fact the people remembered previous similar epidemics and took reasonable precautions such as wearing masks.   But, maybe that's the point:   both the people and the government took it seriously and did what was necessary instead of playing political or ideological games.

LeCanardQuoi

Hmm. If I am not mistaken, Apple and Google have not published anything whatsoever on their GAEN API since last December in spite of much water under the bridge on this pandemic. I would expect the requirements to be far better understood in regards to matters such as protecting public health (-vs- personal privacy), QR code tracking (-vs- BLE) for monitoring airborne transmission, quick test results (-vs- OTK dreadful notification scheme) and enabling contact tracing people via "digital diaries" (tracking social distancing, quarantine, test results and vaccs). Going back to the drawing board would be most appropriate when so many countries public health agencies signed up to this, are really struggling and desperately need guidance on where this API is heading, when we all know that this pandemic and aftermats are far from over. Walking away from this seems so weird. So where are Google and Apple heading to with their once promising initiative? Can they just walk away from this???