Preorders for iPhone 13 outpace iPhone 12, likely due to Huawei struggles

Posted:
in iPhone
Customers in China have placed more than 2 million preorders for Apple's iPhone 13 lineup, surpassing the number of iPhone 12 preorders in 2020, likely because of the void left by high-end Huawei handsets.

Credit: Apple
Credit: Apple


According to the South China Morning Post, Chinese customers have already placed more than 2 million preorders on retailer JD.com alone as of Thursday. That eclipses the 1.5 million iPhone 12 initial preorders placed after those models launched.

The higher demand for Apple's iPhone 13 models appears to stem from Huawei's decline in the country. Because of U.S. trade sanctions, Huawei is struggling to provide compelling high-end smartphones. Huawei's latest P50 and P50 Pro, for example, lack 5G connectivity due to the sanctions.

Apple's devices appear to have filled in the gap. In addition to Chinese retailer JD.com, interest in the iPhone 13 models also appears high on Alibaba's retail platforms.

South China Morning Post also reports that the iPhone 13 models are priced lower than their iPhone 12 predecessors in China, a fact that surprised many consumers. Each device is about 300 yuan to 800 yuan cheaper than their iPhone 12 counterpart.

Overall smartphone shipments are on the decline in China since Huawei left a void that has yet to be filled by the country's other Android makers.

Apple, however, is thriving. In the second quarter of 2021, Apple ranked as the fourth biggest smartphone vendor in China behind Oppo, Vivo, and Xiaomi. As the largest smartphone market in the world, China is a critical region for Apple and other handset manufacturers.

A Counterpoint research analyst told the South China Morning Post that the iPhone 13 is likely to continue the strong momentum of Apple's previous 5G-compatible lineup.

"There are reasons to believe that the iPhone 13 would sell less because of the lack of new features," the analyst said. "But considering Huawei's plight, we think the iPhone 13 will sell just as well."

Back in 2019, Apple was the primary target of a backlash after the U.S. blacklisted Huawei. However, it appears that the company has largely recovered from the controversy. Although some Chinese consumers continue to advocate for domestic brands, others are citing features and product design as the reasons to choose a smartphone.

"I thought we were supposed to support Huawei and other Chinese brands," one Chinese consumer posted on Weibo. "But it seems like better products speak louder than patriotism."

Read on AppleInsider

Comments

  • Reply 1 of 16
    Even with 5G, Huawei just isn’t that great. 

    Anyone who’s used both will auto choose the iPhone. 

    And the pricing strategy for the 13 is brilliant. 

    Still would like to see Apple have an exit strategy from China. 
    patchythepiratep-dogh2ppulseimagestmaywatto_cobra
  • Reply 2 of 16
    avon b7avon b7 Posts: 5,937member
    Even with 5G, Huawei just isn’t that great. 

    Anyone who’s used both will auto choose the iPhone. 

    And the pricing strategy for the 13 is brilliant. 

    Still would like to see Apple have an exit strategy from China. 
    Can you give examples to back that claim up?

    Huawei has consistently been the top of the camera ratings. To many, it still is!

    https://www.dxomark.com/huawei-p50-pro-camera-review-outstanding-in-all-areas/

    It has some of the best WiFi converged capabilities on the market. It has probably one of the best reputations out there for battery life. Its charging technologies (wired or wireless, normal or reversed) are way ahead of Apple's. So are its antenna technologies. It had an on SoC 5G modem before Apple had 5G (bolted on).

    "Anyone who's used both will auto choose an iPhone". 

    No. The article is basically saying the complete opposite of that!

    Huawei is currently re-jigging its supply chain to irradicate US technology dependencies.

    US semi conductor manufacturers are so worried about losing Huawei trade that the semi conductor association wrote directly to the White House warning of the impact of any ban.

    https://www.mobileworldlive.com/featured-content/top-three/us-chip-association-presses-for-export-control-review

    HiSilicon (far from scaling back its activity) is on a worldwide hiring spree for top talent.

    https://www.world-today-news.com/huawei-hisilicon-recruits-specialists-from-all-over-the-world-promising-5-times-higher-salary/

    It is even getting into the foundry business and pulling talent away from TSMC. Over 130 companies have requested licences to do business with Huawei. Google is probably number one on the list after seeing HarmonyOS hit 100 million updates in two and a half months (not including products that ship with HarmonyOS out of the box).

     https://www.gizchina.com/2021/09/13/harmonyos-2-increases-its-target-for-this-year-to-400-million-units/

    There will be an obvious lull in flagship activity while things are re-aligned and competitors (Apple is just one) can obviously take advantage of that (and catch up!) but it is only because of government action, not the products made by the company. 


    edited September 16
  • Reply 3 of 16
    tmaytmay Posts: 5,458member
    avon b7 said:
    Even with 5G, Huawei just isn’t that great. 

    Anyone who’s used both will auto choose the iPhone. 

    And the pricing strategy for the 13 is brilliant. 

    Still would like to see Apple have an exit strategy from China. 
    Can you give examples to back that claim up?

    Huawei has consistently been the top of the camera ratings. To many, it still is!

    https://www.dxomark.com/huawei-p50-pro-camera-review-outstanding-in-all-areas/

    It has some of the best WiFi converged capabilities on the market. It has probably one of the best reputations out there for battery life. Its charging technologies (wired or wireless, normal or reversed) are way ahead of Apple's. So are its antenna technologies. It had an on SoC 5G modem before Apple had 5G (bolted on).

    "Anyone who's used both will auto choose an iPhone". 

    No. The article is basically saying the complete opposite of that!

    Huawei is currently re-jigging its supply chain to irradicate US technology dependencies.

    US semi conductor manufacturers are so worried about losing Huawei trade that the semi conductor association wrote directly to the White House warning of the impact of any ban.

    https://www.mobileworldlive.com/featured-content/top-three/us-chip-association-presses-for-export-control-review

    HiSilicon (far from scaling back its activity) is on a worldwide hiring spree for top talent.

    https://www.world-today-news.com/huawei-hisilicon-recruits-specialists-from-all-over-the-world-promising-5-times-higher-salary/

    It is even getting into the foundry business and pulling talent away from TSMC. Over 130 companies have requested licences to do business with Huawei. Google is probably number one on the list after seeing HarmonyOS hit 100 million updates in two and a half months (not including products that ship with HarmonyOS out of the box).

     https://www.gizchina.com/2021/09/13/harmonyos-2-increases-its-target-for-this-year-to-400-million-units/

    There will be an obvious lull in flagship activity while things are re-aligned and competitors (Apple is just one) can obviously take advantage of that (and catch up!) but it is only because of government action, not the products made by the company. 


    HiSilicon is a design company, not a foundry. Taiwan is restricting China companies from hiring their semiconductor talent;

    https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Tech/Semiconductors/Taiwan-bans-recruitment-for-jobs-in-China-to-combat-brain-drain

    https://news.clearancejobs.com/2021/06/22/quiet-concerns-over-taiwans-chip-domination/

    There are no Chinese foundries with capabilities below 10nm, so no SOC for smartphones fabricated in China. China is a few percentage points of 10 nm production compared to the rest of the world.

    Given the backlogs in the semiconductor industry, I doubt that the U.S. Semconductor Association will make any headway in opening up increased sales to Huawei. To date, Huawei has not been able to access Samsung or TMSC for SOC production of existing HiSilicon designs. I do not believe that Huawei will be able to access Qualcomm either.

    Xiaomi, et al, are filling in the sales void that Huawei absence has left.

    There will be an obvious lull in flagship activity while things are re-aligned and competitors (Apple is just one) can obviously take advantage of that (and catch up!) but it is only because of government action, not the products made by the company. 
    Huawei did in fact have the leading smartphone based on DXOmark, and these were sold in relatively small numbers, maybe in the tens of thousands, maybe a few hundreds of thousands. At the same time, it is Apple that sells the bulk of iPhones at prices above the $400, and $800 tiers, and even it's Pro models sell in the 10's of millions. Of course, iPhone sales for Apple start at $399, so even that price point is only a couple of percent of sales.

    I don't foresee Huawei reentering the smartphone market outside of China. Its Chinese OEM competitors will have staked out that space. That doesn't bode well for Harmony OS outside of China.

    Huawei Telecom is hurting as well;

    https://www.fiercetelecom.com/tech/ericsson-nokia-benefit-most-from-first-half-2021-telco-network-spend

    Huawei soared too close to the sun. They should have never been so closely attached to the PRC.

    of note;

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-58564837

    The UK, US and Australia have announced a historic security pact in the Asia-Pacific, in what's seen as an effort to counter China.

    It will let Australia build nuclear-powered submarines for the first time, using technology provided by the US.

    The Aukus pact, which will also cover AI and other technologies, is one of the countries' biggest defence partnerships in decades, analysts say.

    China has condemned the agreement as "extremely irresponsible".

    Foreign ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said it "seriously undermines regional peace and stability and intensifies the arms race".

    China's embassy in Washington accused the countries of a "Cold War mentality and ideological prejudice".

    This is all on Xi Jinping.

    But wait, there's more;

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/1-australia-arms-deal-flop-105029254.html

    BRUSSELS, Sept 16 (Reuters) - The European Union set out a formal strategy on Thursday to boost its presence in the Indo-Pacific and counter China's rising power, pledging to seek a trade deal with Taiwan and to deploy more ships to keep open sea routes.

    The EU's foreign policy chief Josep Borrell insisted the strategy was also open to China, particularly in areas such as climate change, but diplomats told Reuters that deeper ties with India, Japan, Australia and Taiwan were aimed at limiting Beijing's power.

    Borrell also said Wednesday's agreement https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-security-biden-asia/china-fumes-over-australias-nuclear-sub-pact-with-u-s-britain-idUSKBN2GB2BN between the United States, Australia and Britain to establish a security partnership for the Indo-Pacific, in which the EU was not consulted, showed the need for a more assertive foreign policy.

    He said the EU was eager to work with Britain on security but that London had shown no interest since it left the bloc, expressing regret that Australia had cancelled a $40 billion submarine deal with France.

    "We must survive on our own, as others do," Borrell said as he presented a new EU strategy for the Indo-Pacific region, talking of the "strategic autonomy" that French President Emmanuel Macron has championed.

    https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/QANDA_21_4709

    Taiwan will be happy to buy those submarines.

    Oh what the fuck now;

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-16/chinese-smartphone-giant-cuts-jobs-after-going-up-against-apple?sref=M65jzF3E

    Smartphone maker Oppo is cutting around 20% of staff in key software and device teams after it merged operations with affiliate OnePlus, the first major consolidation in a Chinese mobile industry struggling with chip shortages and Covid-triggered economic shocks.

    Oppo, which in 2016 became the country’s top-selling brand, is retrenching after expanding too rapidly on the hiring front in recent years and attacking a premium segment dominated by Apple Inc., people familiar with the matter said. The cuts affect important units including a team that customizes Android into its in-house ColorOS, and an Internet of Things division that develops a spectrum of wearables such as smartwatches and earbuds, said the people, asking not to be identified discussing a private matter.

    Oppo has merged since mid-2021 with smaller high-end brand OnePlus, with which it shares backers, to pool development resources and reduce overhead, but that’s creating redundant positions. Its R&D team for phones and overseas sales positions haven’t been impacted yet by cuts, one of the people said. An Oppo representative declined to comment for the story.

    Shenzhen-based Oppo built one of China’s biggest smartphone brands by rallying private retailers in rural areas and tricking out its devices with larger batteries and memory. But heavy investments to expand into markets from India to Southeast Asia and Europe have not paid off as expected against fierce competition from the likes of Xiaomi Corp. and Apple. It’s now contending with a Chinese retail slowdown as Covid’s resurgence locks down parts of the country.


    edited September 17 olswatto_cobra
  • Reply 4 of 16
    avon b7avon b7 Posts: 5,937member
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    Even with 5G, Huawei just isn’t that great. 

    Anyone who’s used both will auto choose the iPhone. 

    And the pricing strategy for the 13 is brilliant. 

    Still would like to see Apple have an exit strategy from China. 
    Can you give examples to back that claim up?

    Huawei has consistently been the top of the camera ratings. To many, it still is!

    https://www.dxomark.com/huawei-p50-pro-camera-review-outstanding-in-all-areas/

    It has some of the best WiFi converged capabilities on the market. It has probably one of the best reputations out there for battery life. Its charging technologies (wired or wireless, normal or reversed) are way ahead of Apple's. So are its antenna technologies. It had an on SoC 5G modem before Apple had 5G (bolted on).

    "Anyone who's used both will auto choose an iPhone". 

    No. The article is basically saying the complete opposite of that!

    Huawei is currently re-jigging its supply chain to irradicate US technology dependencies.

    US semi conductor manufacturers are so worried about losing Huawei trade that the semi conductor association wrote directly to the White House warning of the impact of any ban.

    https://www.mobileworldlive.com/featured-content/top-three/us-chip-association-presses-for-export-control-review

    HiSilicon (far from scaling back its activity) is on a worldwide hiring spree for top talent.

    https://www.world-today-news.com/huawei-hisilicon-recruits-specialists-from-all-over-the-world-promising-5-times-higher-salary/

    It is even getting into the foundry business and pulling talent away from TSMC. Over 130 companies have requested licences to do business with Huawei. Google is probably number one on the list after seeing HarmonyOS hit 100 million updates in two and a half months (not including products that ship with HarmonyOS out of the box).

     https://www.gizchina.com/2021/09/13/harmonyos-2-increases-its-target-for-this-year-to-400-million-units/

    There will be an obvious lull in flagship activity while things are re-aligned and competitors (Apple is just one) can obviously take advantage of that (and catch up!) but it is only because of government action, not the products made by the company. 


    HiSilicon is a design company, not a foundry. Taiwan is restricting China companies from hiring their semiconductor talent;

    https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Tech/Semiconductors/Taiwan-bans-recruitment-for-jobs-in-China-to-combat-brain-drain

    https://news.clearancejobs.com/2021/06/22/quiet-concerns-over-taiwans-chip-domination/

    There are no Chinese foundries with capabilities below 10nm, so no SOC for smartphones fabricated in China. China is a few percentage points of 10 nm production compared to the rest of the world.

    Given the backlogs in the semiconductor industry, I doubt that the U.S. Semconductor Association will make any headway in opening up increased sales to Huawei. To date, Huawei has not been able to access Samsung or TMSC for SOC production of existing HiSilicon designs. I do not believe that Huawei will be able to access Qualcomm either.

    Xiaomi, et al, are filling in the sales void that Huawei absence has left.

    There will be an obvious lull in flagship activity while things are re-aligned and competitors (Apple is just one) can obviously take advantage of that (and catch up!) but it is only because of government action, not the products made by the company. 
    Huawei did in fact have the leading smartphone based on DXOmark, and these were sold in relatively small numbers, maybe in the tens of thousands, maybe a few hundreds of thousands. At the same time, it is Apple that sells the bulk of iPhones at prices above the $400, and $800 tiers, and even it's Pro models sell in the 10's of millions. Of course, iPhone sales for Apple start at $399, so even that price point is only a couple of percent of sales.

    I don't foresee Huawei reentering the smartphone market outside of China. Its Chinese OEM competitors will have staked out that space. That doesn't bode well for Harmony OS outside of China.

    Huawei Telecom is hurting as well;

    https://www.fiercetelecom.com/tech/ericsson-nokia-benefit-most-from-first-half-2021-telco-network-spend

    Huawei soared too close to the sun. They should have never been so closely attached to the PRC.

    of note;

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-58564837

    The UK, US and Australia have announced a historic security pact in the Asia-Pacific, in what's seen as an effort to counter China.

    It will let Australia build nuclear-powered submarines for the first time, using technology provided by the US.

    The Aukus pact, which will also cover AI and other technologies, is one of the countries' biggest defence partnerships in decades, analysts say.

    China has condemned the agreement as "extremely irresponsible".

    Foreign ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said it "seriously undermines regional peace and stability and intensifies the arms race".

    China's embassy in Washington accused the countries of a "Cold War mentality and ideological prejudice".

    This is all on Xi Jinping.

    But wait, there's more;

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/1-australia-arms-deal-flop-105029254.html

    BRUSSELS, Sept 16 (Reuters) - The European Union set out a formal strategy on Thursday to boost its presence in the Indo-Pacific and counter China's rising power, pledging to seek a trade deal with Taiwan and to deploy more ships to keep open sea routes.

    The EU's foreign policy chief Josep Borrell insisted the strategy was also open to China, particularly in areas such as climate change, but diplomats told Reuters that deeper ties with India, Japan, Australia and Taiwan were aimed at limiting Beijing's power.

    Borrell also said Wednesday's agreement https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-security-biden-asia/china-fumes-over-australias-nuclear-sub-pact-with-u-s-britain-idUSKBN2GB2BN between the United States, Australia and Britain to establish a security partnership for the Indo-Pacific, in which the EU was not consulted, showed the need for a more assertive foreign policy.

    He said the EU was eager to work with Britain on security but that London had shown no interest since it left the bloc, expressing regret that Australia had cancelled a $40 billion submarine deal with France.

    "We must survive on our own, as others do," Borrell said as he presented a new EU strategy for the Indo-Pacific region, talking of the "strategic autonomy" that French President Emmanuel Macron has championed.

    https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/QANDA_21_4709

    Taiwan will be happy to buy those submarines.

    Oh what the fuck now;

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-16/chinese-smartphone-giant-cuts-jobs-after-going-up-against-apple?sref=M65jzF3E

    Smartphone maker Oppo is cutting around 20% of staff in key software and device teams after it merged operations with affiliate OnePlus, the first major consolidation in a Chinese mobile industry struggling with chip shortages and Covid-triggered economic shocks.

    Oppo, which in 2016 became the country’s top-selling brand, is retrenching after expanding too rapidly on the hiring front in recent years and attacking a premium segment dominated by Apple Inc., people familiar with the matter said. The cuts affect important units including a team that customizes Android into its in-house ColorOS, and an Internet of Things division that develops a spectrum of wearables such as smartwatches and earbuds, said the people, asking not to be identified discussing a private matter.

    Oppo has merged since mid-2021 with smaller high-end brand OnePlus, with which it shares backers, to pool development resources and reduce overhead, but that’s creating redundant positions. Its R&D team for phones and overseas sales positions haven’t been impacted yet by cuts, one of the people said. An Oppo representative declined to comment for the story.

    Shenzhen-based Oppo built one of China’s biggest smartphone brands by rallying private retailers in rural areas and tricking out its devices with larger batteries and memory. But heavy investments to expand into markets from India to Southeast Asia and Europe have not paid off as expected against fierce competition from the likes of Xiaomi Corp. and Apple. It’s now contending with a Chinese retail slowdown as Covid’s resurgence locks down parts of the country.


    Taiwan is powerless to prevent a brain drain. Top scientists have already moved in both directions. Normal business in that regard. On top of that, they often do not have to leave Taiwan. HiSilicon and Huawei have offices there. 

    Talking about 'now' is simply stating the obvious. We already know what the situation is now. Huawei is moving into the foundry business and clearly with the goal of eliminating US elements from the supply chain. It will start with larger process modes and move down.

    It doesn't have any alternative. US semi conductor interests will suffer as a result. Billions in lost revenues. That is already happening. TSMC is also losing billions but on top of that, it knows Huawei is destined to become a top level competitor, further complicating its situation.

    In the short term, US technology will be pulled out of the international supply chain to accommodate 'politically safe' alternatives to Huawei while it develops its own foundry business. 

    Currently, it looks like they already have the technical capacity to do this down to 3nm or will have soon. From there, it is a question of finding the production capacity. 

    Samsung, SMIC and Mediatek the rumoured manufacturers. 

    In the case of 5G chipsets, one particular component is currently holding things back and obviously you can expect that problem to be resolved as a priority. 

    The sun and submarines are irrevelant to Huawei. 


  • Reply 5 of 16
    tmaytmay Posts: 5,458member
    avon b7 said:
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    Even with 5G, Huawei just isn’t that great. 

    Anyone who’s used both will auto choose the iPhone. 

    And the pricing strategy for the 13 is brilliant. 

    Still would like to see Apple have an exit strategy from China. 
    Can you give examples to back that claim up?

    Huawei has consistently been the top of the camera ratings. To many, it still is!

    https://www.dxomark.com/huawei-p50-pro-camera-review-outstanding-in-all-areas/

    It has some of the best WiFi converged capabilities on the market. It has probably one of the best reputations out there for battery life. Its charging technologies (wired or wireless, normal or reversed) are way ahead of Apple's. So are its antenna technologies. It had an on SoC 5G modem before Apple had 5G (bolted on).

    "Anyone who's used both will auto choose an iPhone". 

    No. The article is basically saying the complete opposite of that!

    Huawei is currently re-jigging its supply chain to irradicate US technology dependencies.

    US semi conductor manufacturers are so worried about losing Huawei trade that the semi conductor association wrote directly to the White House warning of the impact of any ban.

    https://www.mobileworldlive.com/featured-content/top-three/us-chip-association-presses-for-export-control-review

    HiSilicon (far from scaling back its activity) is on a worldwide hiring spree for top talent.

    https://www.world-today-news.com/huawei-hisilicon-recruits-specialists-from-all-over-the-world-promising-5-times-higher-salary/

    It is even getting into the foundry business and pulling talent away from TSMC. Over 130 companies have requested licences to do business with Huawei. Google is probably number one on the list after seeing HarmonyOS hit 100 million updates in two and a half months (not including products that ship with HarmonyOS out of the box).

     https://www.gizchina.com/2021/09/13/harmonyos-2-increases-its-target-for-this-year-to-400-million-units/

    There will be an obvious lull in flagship activity while things are re-aligned and competitors (Apple is just one) can obviously take advantage of that (and catch up!) but it is only because of government action, not the products made by the company. 


    HiSilicon is a design company, not a foundry. Taiwan is restricting China companies from hiring their semiconductor talent;

    https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Tech/Semiconductors/Taiwan-bans-recruitment-for-jobs-in-China-to-combat-brain-drain

    https://news.clearancejobs.com/2021/06/22/quiet-concerns-over-taiwans-chip-domination/

    There are no Chinese foundries with capabilities below 10nm, so no SOC for smartphones fabricated in China. China is a few percentage points of 10 nm production compared to the rest of the world.

    Given the backlogs in the semiconductor industry, I doubt that the U.S. Semconductor Association will make any headway in opening up increased sales to Huawei. To date, Huawei has not been able to access Samsung or TMSC for SOC production of existing HiSilicon designs. I do not believe that Huawei will be able to access Qualcomm either.

    Xiaomi, et al, are filling in the sales void that Huawei absence has left.

    There will be an obvious lull in flagship activity while things are re-aligned and competitors (Apple is just one) can obviously take advantage of that (and catch up!) but it is only because of government action, not the products made by the company. 
    Huawei did in fact have the leading smartphone based on DXOmark, and these were sold in relatively small numbers, maybe in the tens of thousands, maybe a few hundreds of thousands. At the same time, it is Apple that sells the bulk of iPhones at prices above the $400, and $800 tiers, and even it's Pro models sell in the 10's of millions. Of course, iPhone sales for Apple start at $399, so even that price point is only a couple of percent of sales.

    I don't foresee Huawei reentering the smartphone market outside of China. Its Chinese OEM competitors will have staked out that space. That doesn't bode well for Harmony OS outside of China.

    Huawei Telecom is hurting as well;

    https://www.fiercetelecom.com/tech/ericsson-nokia-benefit-most-from-first-half-2021-telco-network-spend

    Huawei soared too close to the sun. They should have never been so closely attached to the PRC.

    of note;

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-58564837

    The UK, US and Australia have announced a historic security pact in the Asia-Pacific, in what's seen as an effort to counter China.

    It will let Australia build nuclear-powered submarines for the first time, using technology provided by the US.

    The Aukus pact, which will also cover AI and other technologies, is one of the countries' biggest defence partnerships in decades, analysts say.

    China has condemned the agreement as "extremely irresponsible".

    Foreign ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said it "seriously undermines regional peace and stability and intensifies the arms race".

    China's embassy in Washington accused the countries of a "Cold War mentality and ideological prejudice".

    This is all on Xi Jinping.

    But wait, there's more;

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/1-australia-arms-deal-flop-105029254.html

    BRUSSELS, Sept 16 (Reuters) - The European Union set out a formal strategy on Thursday to boost its presence in the Indo-Pacific and counter China's rising power, pledging to seek a trade deal with Taiwan and to deploy more ships to keep open sea routes.

    The EU's foreign policy chief Josep Borrell insisted the strategy was also open to China, particularly in areas such as climate change, but diplomats told Reuters that deeper ties with India, Japan, Australia and Taiwan were aimed at limiting Beijing's power.

    Borrell also said Wednesday's agreement https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-security-biden-asia/china-fumes-over-australias-nuclear-sub-pact-with-u-s-britain-idUSKBN2GB2BN between the United States, Australia and Britain to establish a security partnership for the Indo-Pacific, in which the EU was not consulted, showed the need for a more assertive foreign policy.

    He said the EU was eager to work with Britain on security but that London had shown no interest since it left the bloc, expressing regret that Australia had cancelled a $40 billion submarine deal with France.

    "We must survive on our own, as others do," Borrell said as he presented a new EU strategy for the Indo-Pacific region, talking of the "strategic autonomy" that French President Emmanuel Macron has championed.

    https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/QANDA_21_4709

    Taiwan will be happy to buy those submarines.

    Oh what the fuck now;

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-16/chinese-smartphone-giant-cuts-jobs-after-going-up-against-apple?sref=M65jzF3E

    Smartphone maker Oppo is cutting around 20% of staff in key software and device teams after it merged operations with affiliate OnePlus, the first major consolidation in a Chinese mobile industry struggling with chip shortages and Covid-triggered economic shocks.

    Oppo, which in 2016 became the country’s top-selling brand, is retrenching after expanding too rapidly on the hiring front in recent years and attacking a premium segment dominated by Apple Inc., people familiar with the matter said. The cuts affect important units including a team that customizes Android into its in-house ColorOS, and an Internet of Things division that develops a spectrum of wearables such as smartwatches and earbuds, said the people, asking not to be identified discussing a private matter.

    Oppo has merged since mid-2021 with smaller high-end brand OnePlus, with which it shares backers, to pool development resources and reduce overhead, but that’s creating redundant positions. Its R&D team for phones and overseas sales positions haven’t been impacted yet by cuts, one of the people said. An Oppo representative declined to comment for the story.

    Shenzhen-based Oppo built one of China’s biggest smartphone brands by rallying private retailers in rural areas and tricking out its devices with larger batteries and memory. But heavy investments to expand into markets from India to Southeast Asia and Europe have not paid off as expected against fierce competition from the likes of Xiaomi Corp. and Apple. It’s now contending with a Chinese retail slowdown as Covid’s resurgence locks down parts of the country.


    Taiwan is powerless to prevent a brain drain. Top scientists have already moved in both directions. Normal business in that regard. On top of that, they often do not have to leave Taiwan. HiSilicon and Huawei have offices there. 

    Talking about 'now' is simply stating the obvious. We already know what the situation is now. Huawei is moving into the foundry business and clearly with the goal of eliminating US elements from the supply chain. It will start with larger process modes and move down.

    It doesn't have any alternative. US semi conductor interests will suffer as a result. Billions in lost revenues. That is already happening. TSMC is also losing billions but on top of that, it knows Huawei is destined to become a top level competitor, further complicating its situation.

    In the short term, US technology will be pulled out of the international supply chain to accommodate 'politically safe' alternatives to Huawei while it develops its own foundry business. 

    Currently, it looks like they already have the technical capacity to do this down to 3nm or will have soon. From there, it is a question of finding the production capacity. 

    Samsung, SMIC and Mediatek the rumoured manufacturers. 

    In the case of 5G chipsets, one particular component is currently holding things back and obviously you can expect that problem to be resolved as a priority. 

    The sun and submarines are irrevelant to Huawei. 


    FFS, stop self medicating hallucinagens...

    TSMC and Samsung just raised prices into the double digits. They aren't losing anything at all today from lack of Huawei/HiSilicon orders simply because TSMC is production constrained for at least another year. Even after that, HiSilicon/Huawei/PRC will still not have those nodes that are in highest demand for computing products, including smartphones. TSMC's strongest competition is coming from the same  Western supply chain that is concerned about the PRC invading Taiwan, hence why TSMC is building a fab in Arizona.

    Your wishful thinking may be true 5 to 10 years into the future, but it isn't anywhere true today, and there isn't a chance in hell of SMIC getting 3 nm production within the next 5 years without currently banned Western technology. Meanwhile, Intel is getting back on its feet, and that is going to have an impact in the PC and Cloud realm that Arm is attempting to enter.

    More to the point, why aren't you pushing EU semiconductor tech? Is it that you are so biased for the PRC that you can't even support your own EU industries? How fucked up is that.

    I posted the submarine and EU links because it is yet another indicator of the West coalescing around constraining China in the Indo Pacific, which has and does effect Huawei. The PRC's only friends are other authoritarians; North Korea, Iran, Russia, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Turkey. I'm sure there are plenty of smaller countries that will throw in with the PRC as well.
    watto_cobra
  • Reply 6 of 16
    avon b7avon b7 Posts: 5,937member
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    Even with 5G, Huawei just isn’t that great. 

    Anyone who’s used both will auto choose the iPhone. 

    And the pricing strategy for the 13 is brilliant. 

    Still would like to see Apple have an exit strategy from China. 
    Can you give examples to back that claim up?

    Huawei has consistently been the top of the camera ratings. To many, it still is!

    https://www.dxomark.com/huawei-p50-pro-camera-review-outstanding-in-all-areas/

    It has some of the best WiFi converged capabilities on the market. It has probably one of the best reputations out there for battery life. Its charging technologies (wired or wireless, normal or reversed) are way ahead of Apple's. So are its antenna technologies. It had an on SoC 5G modem before Apple had 5G (bolted on).

    "Anyone who's used both will auto choose an iPhone". 

    No. The article is basically saying the complete opposite of that!

    Huawei is currently re-jigging its supply chain to irradicate US technology dependencies.

    US semi conductor manufacturers are so worried about losing Huawei trade that the semi conductor association wrote directly to the White House warning of the impact of any ban.

    https://www.mobileworldlive.com/featured-content/top-three/us-chip-association-presses-for-export-control-review

    HiSilicon (far from scaling back its activity) is on a worldwide hiring spree for top talent.

    https://www.world-today-news.com/huawei-hisilicon-recruits-specialists-from-all-over-the-world-promising-5-times-higher-salary/

    It is even getting into the foundry business and pulling talent away from TSMC. Over 130 companies have requested licences to do business with Huawei. Google is probably number one on the list after seeing HarmonyOS hit 100 million updates in two and a half months (not including products that ship with HarmonyOS out of the box).

     https://www.gizchina.com/2021/09/13/harmonyos-2-increases-its-target-for-this-year-to-400-million-units/

    There will be an obvious lull in flagship activity while things are re-aligned and competitors (Apple is just one) can obviously take advantage of that (and catch up!) but it is only because of government action, not the products made by the company. 


    HiSilicon is a design company, not a foundry. Taiwan is restricting China companies from hiring their semiconductor talent;

    https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Tech/Semiconductors/Taiwan-bans-recruitment-for-jobs-in-China-to-combat-brain-drain

    https://news.clearancejobs.com/2021/06/22/quiet-concerns-over-taiwans-chip-domination/

    There are no Chinese foundries with capabilities below 10nm, so no SOC for smartphones fabricated in China. China is a few percentage points of 10 nm production compared to the rest of the world.

    Given the backlogs in the semiconductor industry, I doubt that the U.S. Semconductor Association will make any headway in opening up increased sales to Huawei. To date, Huawei has not been able to access Samsung or TMSC for SOC production of existing HiSilicon designs. I do not believe that Huawei will be able to access Qualcomm either.

    Xiaomi, et al, are filling in the sales void that Huawei absence has left.

    There will be an obvious lull in flagship activity while things are re-aligned and competitors (Apple is just one) can obviously take advantage of that (and catch up!) but it is only because of government action, not the products made by the company. 
    Huawei did in fact have the leading smartphone based on DXOmark, and these were sold in relatively small numbers, maybe in the tens of thousands, maybe a few hundreds of thousands. At the same time, it is Apple that sells the bulk of iPhones at prices above the $400, and $800 tiers, and even it's Pro models sell in the 10's of millions. Of course, iPhone sales for Apple start at $399, so even that price point is only a couple of percent of sales.

    I don't foresee Huawei reentering the smartphone market outside of China. Its Chinese OEM competitors will have staked out that space. That doesn't bode well for Harmony OS outside of China.

    Huawei Telecom is hurting as well;

    https://www.fiercetelecom.com/tech/ericsson-nokia-benefit-most-from-first-half-2021-telco-network-spend

    Huawei soared too close to the sun. They should have never been so closely attached to the PRC.

    of note;

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-58564837

    The UK, US and Australia have announced a historic security pact in the Asia-Pacific, in what's seen as an effort to counter China.

    It will let Australia build nuclear-powered submarines for the first time, using technology provided by the US.

    The Aukus pact, which will also cover AI and other technologies, is one of the countries' biggest defence partnerships in decades, analysts say.

    China has condemned the agreement as "extremely irresponsible".

    Foreign ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said it "seriously undermines regional peace and stability and intensifies the arms race".

    China's embassy in Washington accused the countries of a "Cold War mentality and ideological prejudice".

    This is all on Xi Jinping.

    But wait, there's more;

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/1-australia-arms-deal-flop-105029254.html

    BRUSSELS, Sept 16 (Reuters) - The European Union set out a formal strategy on Thursday to boost its presence in the Indo-Pacific and counter China's rising power, pledging to seek a trade deal with Taiwan and to deploy more ships to keep open sea routes.

    The EU's foreign policy chief Josep Borrell insisted the strategy was also open to China, particularly in areas such as climate change, but diplomats told Reuters that deeper ties with India, Japan, Australia and Taiwan were aimed at limiting Beijing's power.

    Borrell also said Wednesday's agreement https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-security-biden-asia/china-fumes-over-australias-nuclear-sub-pact-with-u-s-britain-idUSKBN2GB2BN between the United States, Australia and Britain to establish a security partnership for the Indo-Pacific, in which the EU was not consulted, showed the need for a more assertive foreign policy.

    He said the EU was eager to work with Britain on security but that London had shown no interest since it left the bloc, expressing regret that Australia had cancelled a $40 billion submarine deal with France.

    "We must survive on our own, as others do," Borrell said as he presented a new EU strategy for the Indo-Pacific region, talking of the "strategic autonomy" that French President Emmanuel Macron has championed.

    https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/QANDA_21_4709

    Taiwan will be happy to buy those submarines.

    Oh what the fuck now;

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-16/chinese-smartphone-giant-cuts-jobs-after-going-up-against-apple?sref=M65jzF3E

    Smartphone maker Oppo is cutting around 20% of staff in key software and device teams after it merged operations with affiliate OnePlus, the first major consolidation in a Chinese mobile industry struggling with chip shortages and Covid-triggered economic shocks.

    Oppo, which in 2016 became the country’s top-selling brand, is retrenching after expanding too rapidly on the hiring front in recent years and attacking a premium segment dominated by Apple Inc., people familiar with the matter said. The cuts affect important units including a team that customizes Android into its in-house ColorOS, and an Internet of Things division that develops a spectrum of wearables such as smartwatches and earbuds, said the people, asking not to be identified discussing a private matter.

    Oppo has merged since mid-2021 with smaller high-end brand OnePlus, with which it shares backers, to pool development resources and reduce overhead, but that’s creating redundant positions. Its R&D team for phones and overseas sales positions haven’t been impacted yet by cuts, one of the people said. An Oppo representative declined to comment for the story.

    Shenzhen-based Oppo built one of China’s biggest smartphone brands by rallying private retailers in rural areas and tricking out its devices with larger batteries and memory. But heavy investments to expand into markets from India to Southeast Asia and Europe have not paid off as expected against fierce competition from the likes of Xiaomi Corp. and Apple. It’s now contending with a Chinese retail slowdown as Covid’s resurgence locks down parts of the country.


    Taiwan is powerless to prevent a brain drain. Top scientists have already moved in both directions. Normal business in that regard. On top of that, they often do not have to leave Taiwan. HiSilicon and Huawei have offices there. 

    Talking about 'now' is simply stating the obvious. We already know what the situation is now. Huawei is moving into the foundry business and clearly with the goal of eliminating US elements from the supply chain. It will start with larger process modes and move down.

    It doesn't have any alternative. US semi conductor interests will suffer as a result. Billions in lost revenues. That is already happening. TSMC is also losing billions but on top of that, it knows Huawei is destined to become a top level competitor, further complicating its situation.

    In the short term, US technology will be pulled out of the international supply chain to accommodate 'politically safe' alternatives to Huawei while it develops its own foundry business. 

    Currently, it looks like they already have the technical capacity to do this down to 3nm or will have soon. From there, it is a question of finding the production capacity. 

    Samsung, SMIC and Mediatek the rumoured manufacturers. 

    In the case of 5G chipsets, one particular component is currently holding things back and obviously you can expect that problem to be resolved as a priority. 

    The sun and submarines are irrevelant to Huawei. 


    FFS, stop self medicating hallucinagens...

    TSMC and Samsung just raised prices into the double digits. They aren't losing anything at all today from lack of Huawei/HiSilicon orders simply because TSMC is production constrained for at least another year. Even after that, HiSilicon/Huawei/PRC will still not have those nodes that are in highest demand for computing products, including smartphones. TSMC's strongest competition is coming from the same  Western supply chain that is concerned about the PRC invading Taiwan, hence why TSMC is building a fab in Arizona.

    Your wishful thinking may be true 5 to 10 years into the future, but it isn't anywhere true today, and there isn't a chance in hell of SMIC getting 3 nm production within the next 5 years without currently banned Western technology. Meanwhile, Intel is getting back on its feet, and that is going to have an impact in the PC and Cloud realm that Arm is attempting to enter.

    More to the point, why aren't you pushing EU semiconductor tech? Is it that you are so biased for the PRC that you can't even support your own EU industries? How fucked up is that.

    I posted the submarine and EU links because it is yet another indicator of the West coalescing around constraining China in the Indo Pacific, which has and does effect Huawei. The PRC's only friends are other authoritarians; North Korea, Iran, Russia, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Turkey. I'm sure there are plenty of smaller countries that will throw in with the PRC as well.
    You seem to be not seeing the forest for the trees. 

    'computing' doesn't happen only at the smallest process nodes.

    Computing happens at every node and the highest end modes represent a minuscule fraction of the market. Perhaps even less than miniscule. 

    It doesn't matter how strained Intel, TSMC, Samsung or SMIC are. 

    If it hadn't been for Trump Huawei would still be getting its share of fabrication. That is capacity it had reserved under contract. That capacity can be redirected to other customers while bans persist but does not mean HiSilicon has necessarily nowhere to go. That is frankly ridiculous and clearly not the case as HiSilicon has increased its efforts and is actively recruiting worldwide.

    I suggest you just sit and wait and see. 

    Submarines and sun are irrevelant. 

    Huawei has gone on record as saying that the mobile business unit isn't going anywhere. They are re-jigging supply lines and getting into the foundry business because they have no other option.




  • Reply 7 of 16
    tmaytmay Posts: 5,458member
    avon b7 said:
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    Even with 5G, Huawei just isn’t that great. 

    Anyone who’s used both will auto choose the iPhone. 

    And the pricing strategy for the 13 is brilliant. 

    Still would like to see Apple have an exit strategy from China. 
    Can you give examples to back that claim up?

    Huawei has consistently been the top of the camera ratings. To many, it still is!

    https://www.dxomark.com/huawei-p50-pro-camera-review-outstanding-in-all-areas/

    It has some of the best WiFi converged capabilities on the market. It has probably one of the best reputations out there for battery life. Its charging technologies (wired or wireless, normal or reversed) are way ahead of Apple's. So are its antenna technologies. It had an on SoC 5G modem before Apple had 5G (bolted on).

    "Anyone who's used both will auto choose an iPhone". 

    No. The article is basically saying the complete opposite of that!

    Huawei is currently re-jigging its supply chain to irradicate US technology dependencies.

    US semi conductor manufacturers are so worried about losing Huawei trade that the semi conductor association wrote directly to the White House warning of the impact of any ban.

    https://www.mobileworldlive.com/featured-content/top-three/us-chip-association-presses-for-export-control-review

    HiSilicon (far from scaling back its activity) is on a worldwide hiring spree for top talent.

    https://www.world-today-news.com/huawei-hisilicon-recruits-specialists-from-all-over-the-world-promising-5-times-higher-salary/

    It is even getting into the foundry business and pulling talent away from TSMC. Over 130 companies have requested licences to do business with Huawei. Google is probably number one on the list after seeing HarmonyOS hit 100 million updates in two and a half months (not including products that ship with HarmonyOS out of the box).

     https://www.gizchina.com/2021/09/13/harmonyos-2-increases-its-target-for-this-year-to-400-million-units/

    There will be an obvious lull in flagship activity while things are re-aligned and competitors (Apple is just one) can obviously take advantage of that (and catch up!) but it is only because of government action, not the products made by the company. 


    HiSilicon is a design company, not a foundry. Taiwan is restricting China companies from hiring their semiconductor talent;

    https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Tech/Semiconductors/Taiwan-bans-recruitment-for-jobs-in-China-to-combat-brain-drain

    https://news.clearancejobs.com/2021/06/22/quiet-concerns-over-taiwans-chip-domination/

    There are no Chinese foundries with capabilities below 10nm, so no SOC for smartphones fabricated in China. China is a few percentage points of 10 nm production compared to the rest of the world.

    Given the backlogs in the semiconductor industry, I doubt that the U.S. Semconductor Association will make any headway in opening up increased sales to Huawei. To date, Huawei has not been able to access Samsung or TMSC for SOC production of existing HiSilicon designs. I do not believe that Huawei will be able to access Qualcomm either.

    Xiaomi, et al, are filling in the sales void that Huawei absence has left.

    There will be an obvious lull in flagship activity while things are re-aligned and competitors (Apple is just one) can obviously take advantage of that (and catch up!) but it is only because of government action, not the products made by the company. 
    Huawei did in fact have the leading smartphone based on DXOmark, and these were sold in relatively small numbers, maybe in the tens of thousands, maybe a few hundreds of thousands. At the same time, it is Apple that sells the bulk of iPhones at prices above the $400, and $800 tiers, and even it's Pro models sell in the 10's of millions. Of course, iPhone sales for Apple start at $399, so even that price point is only a couple of percent of sales.

    I don't foresee Huawei reentering the smartphone market outside of China. Its Chinese OEM competitors will have staked out that space. That doesn't bode well for Harmony OS outside of China.

    Huawei Telecom is hurting as well;

    https://www.fiercetelecom.com/tech/ericsson-nokia-benefit-most-from-first-half-2021-telco-network-spend

    Huawei soared too close to the sun. They should have never been so closely attached to the PRC.

    of note;

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-58564837

    The UK, US and Australia have announced a historic security pact in the Asia-Pacific, in what's seen as an effort to counter China.

    It will let Australia build nuclear-powered submarines for the first time, using technology provided by the US.

    The Aukus pact, which will also cover AI and other technologies, is one of the countries' biggest defence partnerships in decades, analysts say.

    China has condemned the agreement as "extremely irresponsible".

    Foreign ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said it "seriously undermines regional peace and stability and intensifies the arms race".

    China's embassy in Washington accused the countries of a "Cold War mentality and ideological prejudice".

    This is all on Xi Jinping.

    But wait, there's more;

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/1-australia-arms-deal-flop-105029254.html

    BRUSSELS, Sept 16 (Reuters) - The European Union set out a formal strategy on Thursday to boost its presence in the Indo-Pacific and counter China's rising power, pledging to seek a trade deal with Taiwan and to deploy more ships to keep open sea routes.

    The EU's foreign policy chief Josep Borrell insisted the strategy was also open to China, particularly in areas such as climate change, but diplomats told Reuters that deeper ties with India, Japan, Australia and Taiwan were aimed at limiting Beijing's power.

    Borrell also said Wednesday's agreement https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-security-biden-asia/china-fumes-over-australias-nuclear-sub-pact-with-u-s-britain-idUSKBN2GB2BN between the United States, Australia and Britain to establish a security partnership for the Indo-Pacific, in which the EU was not consulted, showed the need for a more assertive foreign policy.

    He said the EU was eager to work with Britain on security but that London had shown no interest since it left the bloc, expressing regret that Australia had cancelled a $40 billion submarine deal with France.

    "We must survive on our own, as others do," Borrell said as he presented a new EU strategy for the Indo-Pacific region, talking of the "strategic autonomy" that French President Emmanuel Macron has championed.

    https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/QANDA_21_4709

    Taiwan will be happy to buy those submarines.

    Oh what the fuck now;

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-16/chinese-smartphone-giant-cuts-jobs-after-going-up-against-apple?sref=M65jzF3E

    Smartphone maker Oppo is cutting around 20% of staff in key software and device teams after it merged operations with affiliate OnePlus, the first major consolidation in a Chinese mobile industry struggling with chip shortages and Covid-triggered economic shocks.

    Oppo, which in 2016 became the country’s top-selling brand, is retrenching after expanding too rapidly on the hiring front in recent years and attacking a premium segment dominated by Apple Inc., people familiar with the matter said. The cuts affect important units including a team that customizes Android into its in-house ColorOS, and an Internet of Things division that develops a spectrum of wearables such as smartwatches and earbuds, said the people, asking not to be identified discussing a private matter.

    Oppo has merged since mid-2021 with smaller high-end brand OnePlus, with which it shares backers, to pool development resources and reduce overhead, but that’s creating redundant positions. Its R&D team for phones and overseas sales positions haven’t been impacted yet by cuts, one of the people said. An Oppo representative declined to comment for the story.

    Shenzhen-based Oppo built one of China’s biggest smartphone brands by rallying private retailers in rural areas and tricking out its devices with larger batteries and memory. But heavy investments to expand into markets from India to Southeast Asia and Europe have not paid off as expected against fierce competition from the likes of Xiaomi Corp. and Apple. It’s now contending with a Chinese retail slowdown as Covid’s resurgence locks down parts of the country.


    Taiwan is powerless to prevent a brain drain. Top scientists have already moved in both directions. Normal business in that regard. On top of that, they often do not have to leave Taiwan. HiSilicon and Huawei have offices there. 

    Talking about 'now' is simply stating the obvious. We already know what the situation is now. Huawei is moving into the foundry business and clearly with the goal of eliminating US elements from the supply chain. It will start with larger process modes and move down.

    It doesn't have any alternative. US semi conductor interests will suffer as a result. Billions in lost revenues. That is already happening. TSMC is also losing billions but on top of that, it knows Huawei is destined to become a top level competitor, further complicating its situation.

    In the short term, US technology will be pulled out of the international supply chain to accommodate 'politically safe' alternatives to Huawei while it develops its own foundry business. 

    Currently, it looks like they already have the technical capacity to do this down to 3nm or will have soon. From there, it is a question of finding the production capacity. 

    Samsung, SMIC and Mediatek the rumoured manufacturers. 

    In the case of 5G chipsets, one particular component is currently holding things back and obviously you can expect that problem to be resolved as a priority. 

    The sun and submarines are irrevelant to Huawei. 


    FFS, stop self medicating hallucinagens...

    TSMC and Samsung just raised prices into the double digits. They aren't losing anything at all today from lack of Huawei/HiSilicon orders simply because TSMC is production constrained for at least another year. Even after that, HiSilicon/Huawei/PRC will still not have those nodes that are in highest demand for computing products, including smartphones. TSMC's strongest competition is coming from the same  Western supply chain that is concerned about the PRC invading Taiwan, hence why TSMC is building a fab in Arizona.

    Your wishful thinking may be true 5 to 10 years into the future, but it isn't anywhere true today, and there isn't a chance in hell of SMIC getting 3 nm production within the next 5 years without currently banned Western technology. Meanwhile, Intel is getting back on its feet, and that is going to have an impact in the PC and Cloud realm that Arm is attempting to enter.

    More to the point, why aren't you pushing EU semiconductor tech? Is it that you are so biased for the PRC that you can't even support your own EU industries? How fucked up is that.

    I posted the submarine and EU links because it is yet another indicator of the West coalescing around constraining China in the Indo Pacific, which has and does effect Huawei. The PRC's only friends are other authoritarians; North Korea, Iran, Russia, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Turkey. I'm sure there are plenty of smaller countries that will throw in with the PRC as well.
    You seem to be not seeing the forest for the trees. 

    'computing' doesn't happen only at the smallest process nodes.

    Computing happens at every node and the highest end modes represent a minuscule fraction of the market. Perhaps even less than miniscule. 

    It doesn't matter how strained Intel, TSMC, Samsung or SMIC are. 

    If it hadn't been for Trump Huawei would still be getting its share of fabrication. That is capacity it had reserved under contract. That capacity can be redirected to other customers while bans persist but does not mean HiSilicon has necessarily nowhere to go. That is frankly ridiculous and clearly not the case as HiSilicon has increased its efforts and is actively recruiting worldwide.

    I suggest you just sit and wait and see. 

    Submarines and sun are irrevelant. 

    Huawei has gone on record as saying that the mobile business unit isn't going anywhere. They are re-jigging supply lines and getting into the foundry business because they have no other option.




    So, you acknowledge that Huawei/HiSilicon has no current foundry capability or availability suitable for smartphones;

    https://www.theburnin.com/technology/huawei-interested-building-domestically-sourced-chip-plant-2020-11-02/

    Huawei intends to launch a chip factory in China that utilizes locally developed technology to make its electronic components, Financial Times reported. The corporation wants the facility to produce its non-smartphone parts without using American-derived technology to avoid U.S. sanctions.

    There is no avenue for Huawei to make its own processors for smartphones anytime soon.
    watto_cobra
  • Reply 8 of 16
    avon b7avon b7 Posts: 5,937member
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    Even with 5G, Huawei just isn’t that great. 

    Anyone who’s used both will auto choose the iPhone. 

    And the pricing strategy for the 13 is brilliant. 

    Still would like to see Apple have an exit strategy from China. 
    Can you give examples to back that claim up?

    Huawei has consistently been the top of the camera ratings. To many, it still is!

    https://www.dxomark.com/huawei-p50-pro-camera-review-outstanding-in-all-areas/

    It has some of the best WiFi converged capabilities on the market. It has probably one of the best reputations out there for battery life. Its charging technologies (wired or wireless, normal or reversed) are way ahead of Apple's. So are its antenna technologies. It had an on SoC 5G modem before Apple had 5G (bolted on).

    "Anyone who's used both will auto choose an iPhone". 

    No. The article is basically saying the complete opposite of that!

    Huawei is currently re-jigging its supply chain to irradicate US technology dependencies.

    US semi conductor manufacturers are so worried about losing Huawei trade that the semi conductor association wrote directly to the White House warning of the impact of any ban.

    https://www.mobileworldlive.com/featured-content/top-three/us-chip-association-presses-for-export-control-review

    HiSilicon (far from scaling back its activity) is on a worldwide hiring spree for top talent.

    https://www.world-today-news.com/huawei-hisilicon-recruits-specialists-from-all-over-the-world-promising-5-times-higher-salary/

    It is even getting into the foundry business and pulling talent away from TSMC. Over 130 companies have requested licences to do business with Huawei. Google is probably number one on the list after seeing HarmonyOS hit 100 million updates in two and a half months (not including products that ship with HarmonyOS out of the box).

     https://www.gizchina.com/2021/09/13/harmonyos-2-increases-its-target-for-this-year-to-400-million-units/

    There will be an obvious lull in flagship activity while things are re-aligned and competitors (Apple is just one) can obviously take advantage of that (and catch up!) but it is only because of government action, not the products made by the company. 


    HiSilicon is a design company, not a foundry. Taiwan is restricting China companies from hiring their semiconductor talent;

    https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Tech/Semiconductors/Taiwan-bans-recruitment-for-jobs-in-China-to-combat-brain-drain

    https://news.clearancejobs.com/2021/06/22/quiet-concerns-over-taiwans-chip-domination/

    There are no Chinese foundries with capabilities below 10nm, so no SOC for smartphones fabricated in China. China is a few percentage points of 10 nm production compared to the rest of the world.

    Given the backlogs in the semiconductor industry, I doubt that the U.S. Semconductor Association will make any headway in opening up increased sales to Huawei. To date, Huawei has not been able to access Samsung or TMSC for SOC production of existing HiSilicon designs. I do not believe that Huawei will be able to access Qualcomm either.

    Xiaomi, et al, are filling in the sales void that Huawei absence has left.

    There will be an obvious lull in flagship activity while things are re-aligned and competitors (Apple is just one) can obviously take advantage of that (and catch up!) but it is only because of government action, not the products made by the company. 
    Huawei did in fact have the leading smartphone based on DXOmark, and these were sold in relatively small numbers, maybe in the tens of thousands, maybe a few hundreds of thousands. At the same time, it is Apple that sells the bulk of iPhones at prices above the $400, and $800 tiers, and even it's Pro models sell in the 10's of millions. Of course, iPhone sales for Apple start at $399, so even that price point is only a couple of percent of sales.

    I don't foresee Huawei reentering the smartphone market outside of China. Its Chinese OEM competitors will have staked out that space. That doesn't bode well for Harmony OS outside of China.

    Huawei Telecom is hurting as well;

    https://www.fiercetelecom.com/tech/ericsson-nokia-benefit-most-from-first-half-2021-telco-network-spend

    Huawei soared too close to the sun. They should have never been so closely attached to the PRC.

    of note;

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-58564837

    The UK, US and Australia have announced a historic security pact in the Asia-Pacific, in what's seen as an effort to counter China.

    It will let Australia build nuclear-powered submarines for the first time, using technology provided by the US.

    The Aukus pact, which will also cover AI and other technologies, is one of the countries' biggest defence partnerships in decades, analysts say.

    China has condemned the agreement as "extremely irresponsible".

    Foreign ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said it "seriously undermines regional peace and stability and intensifies the arms race".

    China's embassy in Washington accused the countries of a "Cold War mentality and ideological prejudice".

    This is all on Xi Jinping.

    But wait, there's more;

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/1-australia-arms-deal-flop-105029254.html

    BRUSSELS, Sept 16 (Reuters) - The European Union set out a formal strategy on Thursday to boost its presence in the Indo-Pacific and counter China's rising power, pledging to seek a trade deal with Taiwan and to deploy more ships to keep open sea routes.

    The EU's foreign policy chief Josep Borrell insisted the strategy was also open to China, particularly in areas such as climate change, but diplomats told Reuters that deeper ties with India, Japan, Australia and Taiwan were aimed at limiting Beijing's power.

    Borrell also said Wednesday's agreement https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-security-biden-asia/china-fumes-over-australias-nuclear-sub-pact-with-u-s-britain-idUSKBN2GB2BN between the United States, Australia and Britain to establish a security partnership for the Indo-Pacific, in which the EU was not consulted, showed the need for a more assertive foreign policy.

    He said the EU was eager to work with Britain on security but that London had shown no interest since it left the bloc, expressing regret that Australia had cancelled a $40 billion submarine deal with France.

    "We must survive on our own, as others do," Borrell said as he presented a new EU strategy for the Indo-Pacific region, talking of the "strategic autonomy" that French President Emmanuel Macron has championed.

    https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/QANDA_21_4709

    Taiwan will be happy to buy those submarines.

    Oh what the fuck now;

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-16/chinese-smartphone-giant-cuts-jobs-after-going-up-against-apple?sref=M65jzF3E

    Smartphone maker Oppo is cutting around 20% of staff in key software and device teams after it merged operations with affiliate OnePlus, the first major consolidation in a Chinese mobile industry struggling with chip shortages and Covid-triggered economic shocks.

    Oppo, which in 2016 became the country’s top-selling brand, is retrenching after expanding too rapidly on the hiring front in recent years and attacking a premium segment dominated by Apple Inc., people familiar with the matter said. The cuts affect important units including a team that customizes Android into its in-house ColorOS, and an Internet of Things division that develops a spectrum of wearables such as smartwatches and earbuds, said the people, asking not to be identified discussing a private matter.

    Oppo has merged since mid-2021 with smaller high-end brand OnePlus, with which it shares backers, to pool development resources and reduce overhead, but that’s creating redundant positions. Its R&D team for phones and overseas sales positions haven’t been impacted yet by cuts, one of the people said. An Oppo representative declined to comment for the story.

    Shenzhen-based Oppo built one of China’s biggest smartphone brands by rallying private retailers in rural areas and tricking out its devices with larger batteries and memory. But heavy investments to expand into markets from India to Southeast Asia and Europe have not paid off as expected against fierce competition from the likes of Xiaomi Corp. and Apple. It’s now contending with a Chinese retail slowdown as Covid’s resurgence locks down parts of the country.


    Taiwan is powerless to prevent a brain drain. Top scientists have already moved in both directions. Normal business in that regard. On top of that, they often do not have to leave Taiwan. HiSilicon and Huawei have offices there. 

    Talking about 'now' is simply stating the obvious. We already know what the situation is now. Huawei is moving into the foundry business and clearly with the goal of eliminating US elements from the supply chain. It will start with larger process modes and move down.

    It doesn't have any alternative. US semi conductor interests will suffer as a result. Billions in lost revenues. That is already happening. TSMC is also losing billions but on top of that, it knows Huawei is destined to become a top level competitor, further complicating its situation.

    In the short term, US technology will be pulled out of the international supply chain to accommodate 'politically safe' alternatives to Huawei while it develops its own foundry business. 

    Currently, it looks like they already have the technical capacity to do this down to 3nm or will have soon. From there, it is a question of finding the production capacity. 

    Samsung, SMIC and Mediatek the rumoured manufacturers. 

    In the case of 5G chipsets, one particular component is currently holding things back and obviously you can expect that problem to be resolved as a priority. 

    The sun and submarines are irrevelant to Huawei. 


    FFS, stop self medicating hallucinagens...

    TSMC and Samsung just raised prices into the double digits. They aren't losing anything at all today from lack of Huawei/HiSilicon orders simply because TSMC is production constrained for at least another year. Even after that, HiSilicon/Huawei/PRC will still not have those nodes that are in highest demand for computing products, including smartphones. TSMC's strongest competition is coming from the same  Western supply chain that is concerned about the PRC invading Taiwan, hence why TSMC is building a fab in Arizona.

    Your wishful thinking may be true 5 to 10 years into the future, but it isn't anywhere true today, and there isn't a chance in hell of SMIC getting 3 nm production within the next 5 years without currently banned Western technology. Meanwhile, Intel is getting back on its feet, and that is going to have an impact in the PC and Cloud realm that Arm is attempting to enter.

    More to the point, why aren't you pushing EU semiconductor tech? Is it that you are so biased for the PRC that you can't even support your own EU industries? How fucked up is that.

    I posted the submarine and EU links because it is yet another indicator of the West coalescing around constraining China in the Indo Pacific, which has and does effect Huawei. The PRC's only friends are other authoritarians; North Korea, Iran, Russia, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Turkey. I'm sure there are plenty of smaller countries that will throw in with the PRC as well.
    You seem to be not seeing the forest for the trees. 

    'computing' doesn't happen only at the smallest process nodes.

    Computing happens at every node and the highest end modes represent a minuscule fraction of the market. Perhaps even less than miniscule. 

    It doesn't matter how strained Intel, TSMC, Samsung or SMIC are. 

    If it hadn't been for Trump Huawei would still be getting its share of fabrication. That is capacity it had reserved under contract. That capacity can be redirected to other customers while bans persist but does not mean HiSilicon has necessarily nowhere to go. That is frankly ridiculous and clearly not the case as HiSilicon has increased its efforts and is actively recruiting worldwide.

    I suggest you just sit and wait and see. 

    Submarines and sun are irrevelant. 

    Huawei has gone on record as saying that the mobile business unit isn't going anywhere. They are re-jigging supply lines and getting into the foundry business because they have no other option.




    So, you acknowledge that Huawei/HiSilicon has no current foundry capability or availability suitable for smartphones;

    https://www.theburnin.com/technology/huawei-interested-building-domestically-sourced-chip-plant-2020-11-02/

    Huawei intends to launch a chip factory in China that utilizes locally developed technology to make its electronic components, Financial Times reported. The corporation wants the facility to produce its non-smartphone parts without using American-derived technology to avoid U.S. sanctions.

    There is no avenue for Huawei to make its own processors for smartphones anytime soon.
    'acknowledge'??? 

    Did you even read what I wrote? 

    Huawei has plenty of options - right now! 

    It has been using Qualcomm and Mediatek chips for years but this isn't Lego. You can't just switch lanes at the drop of a hat. Everything needs to be re-jigged. That takes time. 

    As far as Kirin goes, there is all manner of talk but nothing official yet. The most optimistic rumours have things moving at the end of this year. The most pessimistic in about four years. No one knows. 

    Huawei has been making huge strides in sourcing non-US components. It is estimated that US sourcing is currently around the 5% mark for recent phones.

    'anytime soon' is a ridiculous claim when the only thing that is currently in the way is a geopolitical constraint. 

    Its foundry aspirations are already underway and it is investing in every single step of the manufacturing process. The US had just one bullet in the chamber which is more than likely to end up firmly in its foot (or worse)! 

    https://towardfreedom.org/story/archives/asia-archives/chip-war-can-the-united-states-really-gain-from-chinas-pain/

    https://techblog.comsoc.org/2021/07/05/huawei-investment-subsidiary-buys-40-companies-in-3-years-to-reconstruct-semiconductor-supply-chain/

    I suggest you just sit back and see what happens. 
    edited September 18
  • Reply 9 of 16
    tmaytmay Posts: 5,458member
    avon b7 said:
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    Even with 5G, Huawei just isn’t that great. 

    Anyone who’s used both will auto choose the iPhone. 

    And the pricing strategy for the 13 is brilliant. 

    Still would like to see Apple have an exit strategy from China. 
    Can you give examples to back that claim up?

    Huawei has consistently been the top of the camera ratings. To many, it still is!

    https://www.dxomark.com/huawei-p50-pro-camera-review-outstanding-in-all-areas/

    It has some of the best WiFi converged capabilities on the market. It has probably one of the best reputations out there for battery life. Its charging technologies (wired or wireless, normal or reversed) are way ahead of Apple's. So are its antenna technologies. It had an on SoC 5G modem before Apple had 5G (bolted on).

    "Anyone who's used both will auto choose an iPhone". 

    No. The article is basically saying the complete opposite of that!

    Huawei is currently re-jigging its supply chain to irradicate US technology dependencies.

    US semi conductor manufacturers are so worried about losing Huawei trade that the semi conductor association wrote directly to the White House warning of the impact of any ban.

    https://www.mobileworldlive.com/featured-content/top-three/us-chip-association-presses-for-export-control-review

    HiSilicon (far from scaling back its activity) is on a worldwide hiring spree for top talent.

    https://www.world-today-news.com/huawei-hisilicon-recruits-specialists-from-all-over-the-world-promising-5-times-higher-salary/

    It is even getting into the foundry business and pulling talent away from TSMC. Over 130 companies have requested licences to do business with Huawei. Google is probably number one on the list after seeing HarmonyOS hit 100 million updates in two and a half months (not including products that ship with HarmonyOS out of the box).

     https://www.gizchina.com/2021/09/13/harmonyos-2-increases-its-target-for-this-year-to-400-million-units/

    There will be an obvious lull in flagship activity while things are re-aligned and competitors (Apple is just one) can obviously take advantage of that (and catch up!) but it is only because of government action, not the products made by the company. 


    HiSilicon is a design company, not a foundry. Taiwan is restricting China companies from hiring their semiconductor talent;

    https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Tech/Semiconductors/Taiwan-bans-recruitment-for-jobs-in-China-to-combat-brain-drain

    https://news.clearancejobs.com/2021/06/22/quiet-concerns-over-taiwans-chip-domination/

    There are no Chinese foundries with capabilities below 10nm, so no SOC for smartphones fabricated in China. China is a few percentage points of 10 nm production compared to the rest of the world.

    Given the backlogs in the semiconductor industry, I doubt that the U.S. Semconductor Association will make any headway in opening up increased sales to Huawei. To date, Huawei has not been able to access Samsung or TMSC for SOC production of existing HiSilicon designs. I do not believe that Huawei will be able to access Qualcomm either.

    Xiaomi, et al, are filling in the sales void that Huawei absence has left.

    There will be an obvious lull in flagship activity while things are re-aligned and competitors (Apple is just one) can obviously take advantage of that (and catch up!) but it is only because of government action, not the products made by the company. 
    Huawei did in fact have the leading smartphone based on DXOmark, and these were sold in relatively small numbers, maybe in the tens of thousands, maybe a few hundreds of thousands. At the same time, it is Apple that sells the bulk of iPhones at prices above the $400, and $800 tiers, and even it's Pro models sell in the 10's of millions. Of course, iPhone sales for Apple start at $399, so even that price point is only a couple of percent of sales.

    I don't foresee Huawei reentering the smartphone market outside of China. Its Chinese OEM competitors will have staked out that space. That doesn't bode well for Harmony OS outside of China.

    Huawei Telecom is hurting as well;

    https://www.fiercetelecom.com/tech/ericsson-nokia-benefit-most-from-first-half-2021-telco-network-spend

    Huawei soared too close to the sun. They should have never been so closely attached to the PRC.

    of note;

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-58564837

    The UK, US and Australia have announced a historic security pact in the Asia-Pacific, in what's seen as an effort to counter China.

    It will let Australia build nuclear-powered submarines for the first time, using technology provided by the US.

    The Aukus pact, which will also cover AI and other technologies, is one of the countries' biggest defence partnerships in decades, analysts say.

    China has condemned the agreement as "extremely irresponsible".

    Foreign ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said it "seriously undermines regional peace and stability and intensifies the arms race".

    China's embassy in Washington accused the countries of a "Cold War mentality and ideological prejudice".

    This is all on Xi Jinping.

    But wait, there's more;

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/1-australia-arms-deal-flop-105029254.html

    BRUSSELS, Sept 16 (Reuters) - The European Union set out a formal strategy on Thursday to boost its presence in the Indo-Pacific and counter China's rising power, pledging to seek a trade deal with Taiwan and to deploy more ships to keep open sea routes.

    The EU's foreign policy chief Josep Borrell insisted the strategy was also open to China, particularly in areas such as climate change, but diplomats told Reuters that deeper ties with India, Japan, Australia and Taiwan were aimed at limiting Beijing's power.

    Borrell also said Wednesday's agreement https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-security-biden-asia/china-fumes-over-australias-nuclear-sub-pact-with-u-s-britain-idUSKBN2GB2BN between the United States, Australia and Britain to establish a security partnership for the Indo-Pacific, in which the EU was not consulted, showed the need for a more assertive foreign policy.

    He said the EU was eager to work with Britain on security but that London had shown no interest since it left the bloc, expressing regret that Australia had cancelled a $40 billion submarine deal with France.

    "We must survive on our own, as others do," Borrell said as he presented a new EU strategy for the Indo-Pacific region, talking of the "strategic autonomy" that French President Emmanuel Macron has championed.

    https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/QANDA_21_4709

    Taiwan will be happy to buy those submarines.

    Oh what the fuck now;

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-16/chinese-smartphone-giant-cuts-jobs-after-going-up-against-apple?sref=M65jzF3E

    Smartphone maker Oppo is cutting around 20% of staff in key software and device teams after it merged operations with affiliate OnePlus, the first major consolidation in a Chinese mobile industry struggling with chip shortages and Covid-triggered economic shocks.

    Oppo, which in 2016 became the country’s top-selling brand, is retrenching after expanding too rapidly on the hiring front in recent years and attacking a premium segment dominated by Apple Inc., people familiar with the matter said. The cuts affect important units including a team that customizes Android into its in-house ColorOS, and an Internet of Things division that develops a spectrum of wearables such as smartwatches and earbuds, said the people, asking not to be identified discussing a private matter.

    Oppo has merged since mid-2021 with smaller high-end brand OnePlus, with which it shares backers, to pool development resources and reduce overhead, but that’s creating redundant positions. Its R&D team for phones and overseas sales positions haven’t been impacted yet by cuts, one of the people said. An Oppo representative declined to comment for the story.

    Shenzhen-based Oppo built one of China’s biggest smartphone brands by rallying private retailers in rural areas and tricking out its devices with larger batteries and memory. But heavy investments to expand into markets from India to Southeast Asia and Europe have not paid off as expected against fierce competition from the likes of Xiaomi Corp. and Apple. It’s now contending with a Chinese retail slowdown as Covid’s resurgence locks down parts of the country.


    Taiwan is powerless to prevent a brain drain. Top scientists have already moved in both directions. Normal business in that regard. On top of that, they often do not have to leave Taiwan. HiSilicon and Huawei have offices there. 

    Talking about 'now' is simply stating the obvious. We already know what the situation is now. Huawei is moving into the foundry business and clearly with the goal of eliminating US elements from the supply chain. It will start with larger process modes and move down.

    It doesn't have any alternative. US semi conductor interests will suffer as a result. Billions in lost revenues. That is already happening. TSMC is also losing billions but on top of that, it knows Huawei is destined to become a top level competitor, further complicating its situation.

    In the short term, US technology will be pulled out of the international supply chain to accommodate 'politically safe' alternatives to Huawei while it develops its own foundry business. 

    Currently, it looks like they already have the technical capacity to do this down to 3nm or will have soon. From there, it is a question of finding the production capacity. 

    Samsung, SMIC and Mediatek the rumoured manufacturers. 

    In the case of 5G chipsets, one particular component is currently holding things back and obviously you can expect that problem to be resolved as a priority. 

    The sun and submarines are irrevelant to Huawei. 


    FFS, stop self medicating hallucinagens...

    TSMC and Samsung just raised prices into the double digits. They aren't losing anything at all today from lack of Huawei/HiSilicon orders simply because TSMC is production constrained for at least another year. Even after that, HiSilicon/Huawei/PRC will still not have those nodes that are in highest demand for computing products, including smartphones. TSMC's strongest competition is coming from the same  Western supply chain that is concerned about the PRC invading Taiwan, hence why TSMC is building a fab in Arizona.

    Your wishful thinking may be true 5 to 10 years into the future, but it isn't anywhere true today, and there isn't a chance in hell of SMIC getting 3 nm production within the next 5 years without currently banned Western technology. Meanwhile, Intel is getting back on its feet, and that is going to have an impact in the PC and Cloud realm that Arm is attempting to enter.

    More to the point, why aren't you pushing EU semiconductor tech? Is it that you are so biased for the PRC that you can't even support your own EU industries? How fucked up is that.

    I posted the submarine and EU links because it is yet another indicator of the West coalescing around constraining China in the Indo Pacific, which has and does effect Huawei. The PRC's only friends are other authoritarians; North Korea, Iran, Russia, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Turkey. I'm sure there are plenty of smaller countries that will throw in with the PRC as well.
    You seem to be not seeing the forest for the trees. 

    'computing' doesn't happen only at the smallest process nodes.

    Computing happens at every node and the highest end modes represent a minuscule fraction of the market. Perhaps even less than miniscule. 

    It doesn't matter how strained Intel, TSMC, Samsung or SMIC are. 

    If it hadn't been for Trump Huawei would still be getting its share of fabrication. That is capacity it had reserved under contract. That capacity can be redirected to other customers while bans persist but does not mean HiSilicon has necessarily nowhere to go. That is frankly ridiculous and clearly not the case as HiSilicon has increased its efforts and is actively recruiting worldwide.

    I suggest you just sit and wait and see. 

    Submarines and sun are irrevelant. 

    Huawei has gone on record as saying that the mobile business unit isn't going anywhere. They are re-jigging supply lines and getting into the foundry business because they have no other option.




    So, you acknowledge that Huawei/HiSilicon has no current foundry capability or availability suitable for smartphones;

    https://www.theburnin.com/technology/huawei-interested-building-domestically-sourced-chip-plant-2020-11-02/

    Huawei intends to launch a chip factory in China that utilizes locally developed technology to make its electronic components, Financial Times reported. The corporation wants the facility to produce its non-smartphone parts without using American-derived technology to avoid U.S. sanctions.

    There is no avenue for Huawei to make its own processors for smartphones anytime soon.
    'acknowledge'??? 

    Did you even read what I wrote? 

    Huawei has plenty of options - right now! 

    It has been using Qualcomm and Mediatek chips for years but this isn't Lego. You can't just switch lanes at the drop of a hat. Everything needs to be re-jigged. That takes time. 

    As far as Kirin goes, there is all manner of talk but nothing official yet. The most optimistic rumours have things moving at the end of this year. The most pessimistic in about four years. No one knows. 

    Huawei has been making huge strides in sourcing non-US components. It is estimated that US sourcing is currently around the 5% mark for recent phones.

    'anytime soon' is a ridiculous claim when the only thing that is currently in the way is a geopolitical constraint. 

    Its foundry aspirations are already underway and it is investing in every single step of the manufacturing process. The US had just one bullet in the chamber which is more than likely to end up firmly in its foot (or worse)! 

    https://towardfreedom.org/story/archives/asia-archives/chip-war-can-the-united-states-really-gain-from-chinas-pain/

    https://techblog.comsoc.org/2021/07/05/huawei-investment-subsidiary-buys-40-companies-in-3-years-to-reconstruct-semiconductor-supply-chain/

    I suggest you just sit back and see what happens. 
    I'll take a short nap until late 2025. That would be a better use of my time than to just "sit back and see what happens".

    Maybe you'll be "right" in 2025, although semiconductor nodes are a moving target, so it is more likely that HiSilicon will be at a node current today, yet still behind TSMC and Intel in 2025.
    watto_cobra
  • Reply 10 of 16
    avon b7avon b7 Posts: 5,937member
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    Even with 5G, Huawei just isn’t that great. 

    Anyone who’s used both will auto choose the iPhone. 

    And the pricing strategy for the 13 is brilliant. 

    Still would like to see Apple have an exit strategy from China. 
    Can you give examples to back that claim up?

    Huawei has consistently been the top of the camera ratings. To many, it still is!

    https://www.dxomark.com/huawei-p50-pro-camera-review-outstanding-in-all-areas/

    It has some of the best WiFi converged capabilities on the market. It has probably one of the best reputations out there for battery life. Its charging technologies (wired or wireless, normal or reversed) are way ahead of Apple's. So are its antenna technologies. It had an on SoC 5G modem before Apple had 5G (bolted on).

    "Anyone who's used both will auto choose an iPhone". 

    No. The article is basically saying the complete opposite of that!

    Huawei is currently re-jigging its supply chain to irradicate US technology dependencies.

    US semi conductor manufacturers are so worried about losing Huawei trade that the semi conductor association wrote directly to the White House warning of the impact of any ban.

    https://www.mobileworldlive.com/featured-content/top-three/us-chip-association-presses-for-export-control-review

    HiSilicon (far from scaling back its activity) is on a worldwide hiring spree for top talent.

    https://www.world-today-news.com/huawei-hisilicon-recruits-specialists-from-all-over-the-world-promising-5-times-higher-salary/

    It is even getting into the foundry business and pulling talent away from TSMC. Over 130 companies have requested licences to do business with Huawei. Google is probably number one on the list after seeing HarmonyOS hit 100 million updates in two and a half months (not including products that ship with HarmonyOS out of the box).

     https://www.gizchina.com/2021/09/13/harmonyos-2-increases-its-target-for-this-year-to-400-million-units/

    There will be an obvious lull in flagship activity while things are re-aligned and competitors (Apple is just one) can obviously take advantage of that (and catch up!) but it is only because of government action, not the products made by the company. 


    HiSilicon is a design company, not a foundry. Taiwan is restricting China companies from hiring their semiconductor talent;

    https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Tech/Semiconductors/Taiwan-bans-recruitment-for-jobs-in-China-to-combat-brain-drain

    https://news.clearancejobs.com/2021/06/22/quiet-concerns-over-taiwans-chip-domination/

    There are no Chinese foundries with capabilities below 10nm, so no SOC for smartphones fabricated in China. China is a few percentage points of 10 nm production compared to the rest of the world.

    Given the backlogs in the semiconductor industry, I doubt that the U.S. Semconductor Association will make any headway in opening up increased sales to Huawei. To date, Huawei has not been able to access Samsung or TMSC for SOC production of existing HiSilicon designs. I do not believe that Huawei will be able to access Qualcomm either.

    Xiaomi, et al, are filling in the sales void that Huawei absence has left.

    There will be an obvious lull in flagship activity while things are re-aligned and competitors (Apple is just one) can obviously take advantage of that (and catch up!) but it is only because of government action, not the products made by the company. 
    Huawei did in fact have the leading smartphone based on DXOmark, and these were sold in relatively small numbers, maybe in the tens of thousands, maybe a few hundreds of thousands. At the same time, it is Apple that sells the bulk of iPhones at prices above the $400, and $800 tiers, and even it's Pro models sell in the 10's of millions. Of course, iPhone sales for Apple start at $399, so even that price point is only a couple of percent of sales.

    I don't foresee Huawei reentering the smartphone market outside of China. Its Chinese OEM competitors will have staked out that space. That doesn't bode well for Harmony OS outside of China.

    Huawei Telecom is hurting as well;

    https://www.fiercetelecom.com/tech/ericsson-nokia-benefit-most-from-first-half-2021-telco-network-spend

    Huawei soared too close to the sun. They should have never been so closely attached to the PRC.

    of note;

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-58564837

    The UK, US and Australia have announced a historic security pact in the Asia-Pacific, in what's seen as an effort to counter China.

    It will let Australia build nuclear-powered submarines for the first time, using technology provided by the US.

    The Aukus pact, which will also cover AI and other technologies, is one of the countries' biggest defence partnerships in decades, analysts say.

    China has condemned the agreement as "extremely irresponsible".

    Foreign ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said it "seriously undermines regional peace and stability and intensifies the arms race".

    China's embassy in Washington accused the countries of a "Cold War mentality and ideological prejudice".

    This is all on Xi Jinping.

    But wait, there's more;

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/1-australia-arms-deal-flop-105029254.html

    BRUSSELS, Sept 16 (Reuters) - The European Union set out a formal strategy on Thursday to boost its presence in the Indo-Pacific and counter China's rising power, pledging to seek a trade deal with Taiwan and to deploy more ships to keep open sea routes.

    The EU's foreign policy chief Josep Borrell insisted the strategy was also open to China, particularly in areas such as climate change, but diplomats told Reuters that deeper ties with India, Japan, Australia and Taiwan were aimed at limiting Beijing's power.

    Borrell also said Wednesday's agreement https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-security-biden-asia/china-fumes-over-australias-nuclear-sub-pact-with-u-s-britain-idUSKBN2GB2BN between the United States, Australia and Britain to establish a security partnership for the Indo-Pacific, in which the EU was not consulted, showed the need for a more assertive foreign policy.

    He said the EU was eager to work with Britain on security but that London had shown no interest since it left the bloc, expressing regret that Australia had cancelled a $40 billion submarine deal with France.

    "We must survive on our own, as others do," Borrell said as he presented a new EU strategy for the Indo-Pacific region, talking of the "strategic autonomy" that French President Emmanuel Macron has championed.

    https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/QANDA_21_4709

    Taiwan will be happy to buy those submarines.

    Oh what the fuck now;

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-16/chinese-smartphone-giant-cuts-jobs-after-going-up-against-apple?sref=M65jzF3E

    Smartphone maker Oppo is cutting around 20% of staff in key software and device teams after it merged operations with affiliate OnePlus, the first major consolidation in a Chinese mobile industry struggling with chip shortages and Covid-triggered economic shocks.

    Oppo, which in 2016 became the country’s top-selling brand, is retrenching after expanding too rapidly on the hiring front in recent years and attacking a premium segment dominated by Apple Inc., people familiar with the matter said. The cuts affect important units including a team that customizes Android into its in-house ColorOS, and an Internet of Things division that develops a spectrum of wearables such as smartwatches and earbuds, said the people, asking not to be identified discussing a private matter.

    Oppo has merged since mid-2021 with smaller high-end brand OnePlus, with which it shares backers, to pool development resources and reduce overhead, but that’s creating redundant positions. Its R&D team for phones and overseas sales positions haven’t been impacted yet by cuts, one of the people said. An Oppo representative declined to comment for the story.

    Shenzhen-based Oppo built one of China’s biggest smartphone brands by rallying private retailers in rural areas and tricking out its devices with larger batteries and memory. But heavy investments to expand into markets from India to Southeast Asia and Europe have not paid off as expected against fierce competition from the likes of Xiaomi Corp. and Apple. It’s now contending with a Chinese retail slowdown as Covid’s resurgence locks down parts of the country.


    Taiwan is powerless to prevent a brain drain. Top scientists have already moved in both directions. Normal business in that regard. On top of that, they often do not have to leave Taiwan. HiSilicon and Huawei have offices there. 

    Talking about 'now' is simply stating the obvious. We already know what the situation is now. Huawei is moving into the foundry business and clearly with the goal of eliminating US elements from the supply chain. It will start with larger process modes and move down.

    It doesn't have any alternative. US semi conductor interests will suffer as a result. Billions in lost revenues. That is already happening. TSMC is also losing billions but on top of that, it knows Huawei is destined to become a top level competitor, further complicating its situation.

    In the short term, US technology will be pulled out of the international supply chain to accommodate 'politically safe' alternatives to Huawei while it develops its own foundry business. 

    Currently, it looks like they already have the technical capacity to do this down to 3nm or will have soon. From there, it is a question of finding the production capacity. 

    Samsung, SMIC and Mediatek the rumoured manufacturers. 

    In the case of 5G chipsets, one particular component is currently holding things back and obviously you can expect that problem to be resolved as a priority. 

    The sun and submarines are irrevelant to Huawei. 


    FFS, stop self medicating hallucinagens...

    TSMC and Samsung just raised prices into the double digits. They aren't losing anything at all today from lack of Huawei/HiSilicon orders simply because TSMC is production constrained for at least another year. Even after that, HiSilicon/Huawei/PRC will still not have those nodes that are in highest demand for computing products, including smartphones. TSMC's strongest competition is coming from the same  Western supply chain that is concerned about the PRC invading Taiwan, hence why TSMC is building a fab in Arizona.

    Your wishful thinking may be true 5 to 10 years into the future, but it isn't anywhere true today, and there isn't a chance in hell of SMIC getting 3 nm production within the next 5 years without currently banned Western technology. Meanwhile, Intel is getting back on its feet, and that is going to have an impact in the PC and Cloud realm that Arm is attempting to enter.

    More to the point, why aren't you pushing EU semiconductor tech? Is it that you are so biased for the PRC that you can't even support your own EU industries? How fucked up is that.

    I posted the submarine and EU links because it is yet another indicator of the West coalescing around constraining China in the Indo Pacific, which has and does effect Huawei. The PRC's only friends are other authoritarians; North Korea, Iran, Russia, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Turkey. I'm sure there are plenty of smaller countries that will throw in with the PRC as well.
    You seem to be not seeing the forest for the trees. 

    'computing' doesn't happen only at the smallest process nodes.

    Computing happens at every node and the highest end modes represent a minuscule fraction of the market. Perhaps even less than miniscule. 

    It doesn't matter how strained Intel, TSMC, Samsung or SMIC are. 

    If it hadn't been for Trump Huawei would still be getting its share of fabrication. That is capacity it had reserved under contract. That capacity can be redirected to other customers while bans persist but does not mean HiSilicon has necessarily nowhere to go. That is frankly ridiculous and clearly not the case as HiSilicon has increased its efforts and is actively recruiting worldwide.

    I suggest you just sit and wait and see. 

    Submarines and sun are irrevelant. 

    Huawei has gone on record as saying that the mobile business unit isn't going anywhere. They are re-jigging supply lines and getting into the foundry business because they have no other option.




    So, you acknowledge that Huawei/HiSilicon has no current foundry capability or availability suitable for smartphones;

    https://www.theburnin.com/technology/huawei-interested-building-domestically-sourced-chip-plant-2020-11-02/

    Huawei intends to launch a chip factory in China that utilizes locally developed technology to make its electronic components, Financial Times reported. The corporation wants the facility to produce its non-smartphone parts without using American-derived technology to avoid U.S. sanctions.

    There is no avenue for Huawei to make its own processors for smartphones anytime soon.
    'acknowledge'??? 

    Did you even read what I wrote? 

    Huawei has plenty of options - right now! 

    It has been using Qualcomm and Mediatek chips for years but this isn't Lego. You can't just switch lanes at the drop of a hat. Everything needs to be re-jigged. That takes time. 

    As far as Kirin goes, there is all manner of talk but nothing official yet. The most optimistic rumours have things moving at the end of this year. The most pessimistic in about four years. No one knows. 

    Huawei has been making huge strides in sourcing non-US components. It is estimated that US sourcing is currently around the 5% mark for recent phones.

    'anytime soon' is a ridiculous claim when the only thing that is currently in the way is a geopolitical constraint. 

    Its foundry aspirations are already underway and it is investing in every single step of the manufacturing process. The US had just one bullet in the chamber which is more than likely to end up firmly in its foot (or worse)! 

    https://towardfreedom.org/story/archives/asia-archives/chip-war-can-the-united-states-really-gain-from-chinas-pain/

    https://techblog.comsoc.org/2021/07/05/huawei-investment-subsidiary-buys-40-companies-in-3-years-to-reconstruct-semiconductor-supply-chain/

    I suggest you just sit back and see what happens. 
    I'll take a short nap until late 2025. That would be a better use of my time than to just "sit back and see what happens".

    Maybe you'll be "right" in 2025, although semiconductor nodes are a moving target, so it is more likely that HiSilicon will be at a node current today, yet still behind TSMC and Intel in 2025.
    Remember, if they can substitute the US-origin parts that TSMC is currently using that might be enough. And what would happen if ASML pulled its office from the US?

    Geopolitics is a funny game but Huawei knows how desperate the US is and is already planning for its independence of US tech. 

    The rest of the non-US semi conductor industry is no doubt loving the idea of taking on Huawei's multi billion dollar orders and as I alluded to further up, high end process nodes probably don't represent any more 2% of the global market.

    It's the remaining 98% that matters and that's a piece of cake for anyone (capacity permitting). 
    edited September 18
  • Reply 11 of 16
    tmaytmay Posts: 5,458member
    avon b7 said:
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    Even with 5G, Huawei just isn’t that great. 

    Anyone who’s used both will auto choose the iPhone. 

    And the pricing strategy for the 13 is brilliant. 

    Still would like to see Apple have an exit strategy from China. 
    Can you give examples to back that claim up?

    Huawei has consistently been the top of the camera ratings. To many, it still is!

    https://www.dxomark.com/huawei-p50-pro-camera-review-outstanding-in-all-areas/

    It has some of the best WiFi converged capabilities on the market. It has probably one of the best reputations out there for battery life. Its charging technologies (wired or wireless, normal or reversed) are way ahead of Apple's. So are its antenna technologies. It had an on SoC 5G modem before Apple had 5G (bolted on).

    "Anyone who's used both will auto choose an iPhone". 

    No. The article is basically saying the complete opposite of that!

    Huawei is currently re-jigging its supply chain to irradicate US technology dependencies.

    US semi conductor manufacturers are so worried about losing Huawei trade that the semi conductor association wrote directly to the White House warning of the impact of any ban.

    https://www.mobileworldlive.com/featured-content/top-three/us-chip-association-presses-for-export-control-review

    HiSilicon (far from scaling back its activity) is on a worldwide hiring spree for top talent.

    https://www.world-today-news.com/huawei-hisilicon-recruits-specialists-from-all-over-the-world-promising-5-times-higher-salary/

    It is even getting into the foundry business and pulling talent away from TSMC. Over 130 companies have requested licences to do business with Huawei. Google is probably number one on the list after seeing HarmonyOS hit 100 million updates in two and a half months (not including products that ship with HarmonyOS out of the box).

     https://www.gizchina.com/2021/09/13/harmonyos-2-increases-its-target-for-this-year-to-400-million-units/

    There will be an obvious lull in flagship activity while things are re-aligned and competitors (Apple is just one) can obviously take advantage of that (and catch up!) but it is only because of government action, not the products made by the company. 


    HiSilicon is a design company, not a foundry. Taiwan is restricting China companies from hiring their semiconductor talent;

    https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Tech/Semiconductors/Taiwan-bans-recruitment-for-jobs-in-China-to-combat-brain-drain

    https://news.clearancejobs.com/2021/06/22/quiet-concerns-over-taiwans-chip-domination/

    There are no Chinese foundries with capabilities below 10nm, so no SOC for smartphones fabricated in China. China is a few percentage points of 10 nm production compared to the rest of the world.

    Given the backlogs in the semiconductor industry, I doubt that the U.S. Semconductor Association will make any headway in opening up increased sales to Huawei. To date, Huawei has not been able to access Samsung or TMSC for SOC production of existing HiSilicon designs. I do not believe that Huawei will be able to access Qualcomm either.

    Xiaomi, et al, are filling in the sales void that Huawei absence has left.

    There will be an obvious lull in flagship activity while things are re-aligned and competitors (Apple is just one) can obviously take advantage of that (and catch up!) but it is only because of government action, not the products made by the company. 
    Huawei did in fact have the leading smartphone based on DXOmark, and these were sold in relatively small numbers, maybe in the tens of thousands, maybe a few hundreds of thousands. At the same time, it is Apple that sells the bulk of iPhones at prices above the $400, and $800 tiers, and even it's Pro models sell in the 10's of millions. Of course, iPhone sales for Apple start at $399, so even that price point is only a couple of percent of sales.

    I don't foresee Huawei reentering the smartphone market outside of China. Its Chinese OEM competitors will have staked out that space. That doesn't bode well for Harmony OS outside of China.

    Huawei Telecom is hurting as well;

    https://www.fiercetelecom.com/tech/ericsson-nokia-benefit-most-from-first-half-2021-telco-network-spend

    Huawei soared too close to the sun. They should have never been so closely attached to the PRC.

    of note;

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-58564837

    The UK, US and Australia have announced a historic security pact in the Asia-Pacific, in what's seen as an effort to counter China.

    It will let Australia build nuclear-powered submarines for the first time, using technology provided by the US.

    The Aukus pact, which will also cover AI and other technologies, is one of the countries' biggest defence partnerships in decades, analysts say.

    China has condemned the agreement as "extremely irresponsible".

    Foreign ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said it "seriously undermines regional peace and stability and intensifies the arms race".

    China's embassy in Washington accused the countries of a "Cold War mentality and ideological prejudice".

    This is all on Xi Jinping.

    But wait, there's more;

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/1-australia-arms-deal-flop-105029254.html

    BRUSSELS, Sept 16 (Reuters) - The European Union set out a formal strategy on Thursday to boost its presence in the Indo-Pacific and counter China's rising power, pledging to seek a trade deal with Taiwan and to deploy more ships to keep open sea routes.

    The EU's foreign policy chief Josep Borrell insisted the strategy was also open to China, particularly in areas such as climate change, but diplomats told Reuters that deeper ties with India, Japan, Australia and Taiwan were aimed at limiting Beijing's power.

    Borrell also said Wednesday's agreement https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-security-biden-asia/china-fumes-over-australias-nuclear-sub-pact-with-u-s-britain-idUSKBN2GB2BN between the United States, Australia and Britain to establish a security partnership for the Indo-Pacific, in which the EU was not consulted, showed the need for a more assertive foreign policy.

    He said the EU was eager to work with Britain on security but that London had shown no interest since it left the bloc, expressing regret that Australia had cancelled a $40 billion submarine deal with France.

    "We must survive on our own, as others do," Borrell said as he presented a new EU strategy for the Indo-Pacific region, talking of the "strategic autonomy" that French President Emmanuel Macron has championed.

    https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/QANDA_21_4709

    Taiwan will be happy to buy those submarines.

    Oh what the fuck now;

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-16/chinese-smartphone-giant-cuts-jobs-after-going-up-against-apple?sref=M65jzF3E

    Smartphone maker Oppo is cutting around 20% of staff in key software and device teams after it merged operations with affiliate OnePlus, the first major consolidation in a Chinese mobile industry struggling with chip shortages and Covid-triggered economic shocks.

    Oppo, which in 2016 became the country’s top-selling brand, is retrenching after expanding too rapidly on the hiring front in recent years and attacking a premium segment dominated by Apple Inc., people familiar with the matter said. The cuts affect important units including a team that customizes Android into its in-house ColorOS, and an Internet of Things division that develops a spectrum of wearables such as smartwatches and earbuds, said the people, asking not to be identified discussing a private matter.

    Oppo has merged since mid-2021 with smaller high-end brand OnePlus, with which it shares backers, to pool development resources and reduce overhead, but that’s creating redundant positions. Its R&D team for phones and overseas sales positions haven’t been impacted yet by cuts, one of the people said. An Oppo representative declined to comment for the story.

    Shenzhen-based Oppo built one of China’s biggest smartphone brands by rallying private retailers in rural areas and tricking out its devices with larger batteries and memory. But heavy investments to expand into markets from India to Southeast Asia and Europe have not paid off as expected against fierce competition from the likes of Xiaomi Corp. and Apple. It’s now contending with a Chinese retail slowdown as Covid’s resurgence locks down parts of the country.


    Taiwan is powerless to prevent a brain drain. Top scientists have already moved in both directions. Normal business in that regard. On top of that, they often do not have to leave Taiwan. HiSilicon and Huawei have offices there. 

    Talking about 'now' is simply stating the obvious. We already know what the situation is now. Huawei is moving into the foundry business and clearly with the goal of eliminating US elements from the supply chain. It will start with larger process modes and move down.

    It doesn't have any alternative. US semi conductor interests will suffer as a result. Billions in lost revenues. That is already happening. TSMC is also losing billions but on top of that, it knows Huawei is destined to become a top level competitor, further complicating its situation.

    In the short term, US technology will be pulled out of the international supply chain to accommodate 'politically safe' alternatives to Huawei while it develops its own foundry business. 

    Currently, it looks like they already have the technical capacity to do this down to 3nm or will have soon. From there, it is a question of finding the production capacity. 

    Samsung, SMIC and Mediatek the rumoured manufacturers. 

    In the case of 5G chipsets, one particular component is currently holding things back and obviously you can expect that problem to be resolved as a priority. 

    The sun and submarines are irrevelant to Huawei. 


    FFS, stop self medicating hallucinagens...

    TSMC and Samsung just raised prices into the double digits. They aren't losing anything at all today from lack of Huawei/HiSilicon orders simply because TSMC is production constrained for at least another year. Even after that, HiSilicon/Huawei/PRC will still not have those nodes that are in highest demand for computing products, including smartphones. TSMC's strongest competition is coming from the same  Western supply chain that is concerned about the PRC invading Taiwan, hence why TSMC is building a fab in Arizona.

    Your wishful thinking may be true 5 to 10 years into the future, but it isn't anywhere true today, and there isn't a chance in hell of SMIC getting 3 nm production within the next 5 years without currently banned Western technology. Meanwhile, Intel is getting back on its feet, and that is going to have an impact in the PC and Cloud realm that Arm is attempting to enter.

    More to the point, why aren't you pushing EU semiconductor tech? Is it that you are so biased for the PRC that you can't even support your own EU industries? How fucked up is that.

    I posted the submarine and EU links because it is yet another indicator of the West coalescing around constraining China in the Indo Pacific, which has and does effect Huawei. The PRC's only friends are other authoritarians; North Korea, Iran, Russia, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Turkey. I'm sure there are plenty of smaller countries that will throw in with the PRC as well.
    You seem to be not seeing the forest for the trees. 

    'computing' doesn't happen only at the smallest process nodes.

    Computing happens at every node and the highest end modes represent a minuscule fraction of the market. Perhaps even less than miniscule. 

    It doesn't matter how strained Intel, TSMC, Samsung or SMIC are. 

    If it hadn't been for Trump Huawei would still be getting its share of fabrication. That is capacity it had reserved under contract. That capacity can be redirected to other customers while bans persist but does not mean HiSilicon has necessarily nowhere to go. That is frankly ridiculous and clearly not the case as HiSilicon has increased its efforts and is actively recruiting worldwide.

    I suggest you just sit and wait and see. 

    Submarines and sun are irrevelant. 

    Huawei has gone on record as saying that the mobile business unit isn't going anywhere. They are re-jigging supply lines and getting into the foundry business because they have no other option.




    So, you acknowledge that Huawei/HiSilicon has no current foundry capability or availability suitable for smartphones;

    https://www.theburnin.com/technology/huawei-interested-building-domestically-sourced-chip-plant-2020-11-02/

    Huawei intends to launch a chip factory in China that utilizes locally developed technology to make its electronic components, Financial Times reported. The corporation wants the facility to produce its non-smartphone parts without using American-derived technology to avoid U.S. sanctions.

    There is no avenue for Huawei to make its own processors for smartphones anytime soon.
    'acknowledge'??? 

    Did you even read what I wrote? 

    Huawei has plenty of options - right now! 

    It has been using Qualcomm and Mediatek chips for years but this isn't Lego. You can't just switch lanes at the drop of a hat. Everything needs to be re-jigged. That takes time. 

    As far as Kirin goes, there is all manner of talk but nothing official yet. The most optimistic rumours have things moving at the end of this year. The most pessimistic in about four years. No one knows. 

    Huawei has been making huge strides in sourcing non-US components. It is estimated that US sourcing is currently around the 5% mark for recent phones.

    'anytime soon' is a ridiculous claim when the only thing that is currently in the way is a geopolitical constraint. 

    Its foundry aspirations are already underway and it is investing in every single step of the manufacturing process. The US had just one bullet in the chamber which is more than likely to end up firmly in its foot (or worse)! 

    https://towardfreedom.org/story/archives/asia-archives/chip-war-can-the-united-states-really-gain-from-chinas-pain/

    https://techblog.comsoc.org/2021/07/05/huawei-investment-subsidiary-buys-40-companies-in-3-years-to-reconstruct-semiconductor-supply-chain/

    I suggest you just sit back and see what happens. 
    I'll take a short nap until late 2025. That would be a better use of my time than to just "sit back and see what happens".

    Maybe you'll be "right" in 2025, although semiconductor nodes are a moving target, so it is more likely that HiSilicon will be at a node current today, yet still behind TSMC and Intel in 2025.
    Remember, if they can substitute the US-origin parts that TSMC is currently using that might be enough. And what would happen if ASML pulled its office from the US?

    Geopolitics is a funny game but Huawei knows how desperate the US is and is already planning for its independence of US tech. 

    The rest of the non-US semi conductor industry is no doubt loving the idea of taking on Huawei's multi billion dollar orders and as I alluded to further up, high end process nodes probably don't represent any more 2% of the global market.

    It's the remaining 98% that matters and that's a piece of cake for anyone (capacity permitting). 
    ASML uses licensed U.S. Technology. Moving out of the U.S. won't eliminate that. More to the point, the Dutch aren't actually keen on the PRC getting EUV technology.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-asml-holding-usa-china-insight/trump-administration-pressed-dutch-hard-to-cancel-china-chip-equipment-sale-sources-idUSKBN1Z50HN

    The problem for SMIC, is that they are foundry for "dual use" technology; ie, civilian and military use.


    Huawei can plan independence of U.S., and Western, tech as much as they want, but creating it, or even stealing it, isn't a rapid process.

    I reiterate; the world's semiconductor fabs are already maxed out, so they couldn't source to Huawei if they wanted to. Maybe in another year, but in the meantime, Nokia, Ericsson and Samsung seem to be doing quite well in Telecom.
    watto_cobra
  • Reply 12 of 16
    avon b7avon b7 Posts: 5,937member
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    Even with 5G, Huawei just isn’t that great. 

    Anyone who’s used both will auto choose the iPhone. 

    And the pricing strategy for the 13 is brilliant. 

    Still would like to see Apple have an exit strategy from China. 
    Can you give examples to back that claim up?

    Huawei has consistently been the top of the camera ratings. To many, it still is!

    https://www.dxomark.com/huawei-p50-pro-camera-review-outstanding-in-all-areas/

    It has some of the best WiFi converged capabilities on the market. It has probably one of the best reputations out there for battery life. Its charging technologies (wired or wireless, normal or reversed) are way ahead of Apple's. So are its antenna technologies. It had an on SoC 5G modem before Apple had 5G (bolted on).

    "Anyone who's used both will auto choose an iPhone". 

    No. The article is basically saying the complete opposite of that!

    Huawei is currently re-jigging its supply chain to irradicate US technology dependencies.

    US semi conductor manufacturers are so worried about losing Huawei trade that the semi conductor association wrote directly to the White House warning of the impact of any ban.

    https://www.mobileworldlive.com/featured-content/top-three/us-chip-association-presses-for-export-control-review

    HiSilicon (far from scaling back its activity) is on a worldwide hiring spree for top talent.

    https://www.world-today-news.com/huawei-hisilicon-recruits-specialists-from-all-over-the-world-promising-5-times-higher-salary/

    It is even getting into the foundry business and pulling talent away from TSMC. Over 130 companies have requested licences to do business with Huawei. Google is probably number one on the list after seeing HarmonyOS hit 100 million updates in two and a half months (not including products that ship with HarmonyOS out of the box).

     https://www.gizchina.com/2021/09/13/harmonyos-2-increases-its-target-for-this-year-to-400-million-units/

    There will be an obvious lull in flagship activity while things are re-aligned and competitors (Apple is just one) can obviously take advantage of that (and catch up!) but it is only because of government action, not the products made by the company. 


    HiSilicon is a design company, not a foundry. Taiwan is restricting China companies from hiring their semiconductor talent;

    https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Tech/Semiconductors/Taiwan-bans-recruitment-for-jobs-in-China-to-combat-brain-drain

    https://news.clearancejobs.com/2021/06/22/quiet-concerns-over-taiwans-chip-domination/

    There are no Chinese foundries with capabilities below 10nm, so no SOC for smartphones fabricated in China. China is a few percentage points of 10 nm production compared to the rest of the world.

    Given the backlogs in the semiconductor industry, I doubt that the U.S. Semconductor Association will make any headway in opening up increased sales to Huawei. To date, Huawei has not been able to access Samsung or TMSC for SOC production of existing HiSilicon designs. I do not believe that Huawei will be able to access Qualcomm either.

    Xiaomi, et al, are filling in the sales void that Huawei absence has left.

    There will be an obvious lull in flagship activity while things are re-aligned and competitors (Apple is just one) can obviously take advantage of that (and catch up!) but it is only because of government action, not the products made by the company. 
    Huawei did in fact have the leading smartphone based on DXOmark, and these were sold in relatively small numbers, maybe in the tens of thousands, maybe a few hundreds of thousands. At the same time, it is Apple that sells the bulk of iPhones at prices above the $400, and $800 tiers, and even it's Pro models sell in the 10's of millions. Of course, iPhone sales for Apple start at $399, so even that price point is only a couple of percent of sales.

    I don't foresee Huawei reentering the smartphone market outside of China. Its Chinese OEM competitors will have staked out that space. That doesn't bode well for Harmony OS outside of China.

    Huawei Telecom is hurting as well;

    https://www.fiercetelecom.com/tech/ericsson-nokia-benefit-most-from-first-half-2021-telco-network-spend

    Huawei soared too close to the sun. They should have never been so closely attached to the PRC.

    of note;

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-58564837

    The UK, US and Australia have announced a historic security pact in the Asia-Pacific, in what's seen as an effort to counter China.

    It will let Australia build nuclear-powered submarines for the first time, using technology provided by the US.

    The Aukus pact, which will also cover AI and other technologies, is one of the countries' biggest defence partnerships in decades, analysts say.

    China has condemned the agreement as "extremely irresponsible".

    Foreign ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said it "seriously undermines regional peace and stability and intensifies the arms race".

    China's embassy in Washington accused the countries of a "Cold War mentality and ideological prejudice".

    This is all on Xi Jinping.

    But wait, there's more;

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/1-australia-arms-deal-flop-105029254.html

    BRUSSELS, Sept 16 (Reuters) - The European Union set out a formal strategy on Thursday to boost its presence in the Indo-Pacific and counter China's rising power, pledging to seek a trade deal with Taiwan and to deploy more ships to keep open sea routes.

    The EU's foreign policy chief Josep Borrell insisted the strategy was also open to China, particularly in areas such as climate change, but diplomats told Reuters that deeper ties with India, Japan, Australia and Taiwan were aimed at limiting Beijing's power.

    Borrell also said Wednesday's agreement https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-security-biden-asia/china-fumes-over-australias-nuclear-sub-pact-with-u-s-britain-idUSKBN2GB2BN between the United States, Australia and Britain to establish a security partnership for the Indo-Pacific, in which the EU was not consulted, showed the need for a more assertive foreign policy.

    He said the EU was eager to work with Britain on security but that London had shown no interest since it left the bloc, expressing regret that Australia had cancelled a $40 billion submarine deal with France.

    "We must survive on our own, as others do," Borrell said as he presented a new EU strategy for the Indo-Pacific region, talking of the "strategic autonomy" that French President Emmanuel Macron has championed.

    https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/QANDA_21_4709

    Taiwan will be happy to buy those submarines.

    Oh what the fuck now;

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-16/chinese-smartphone-giant-cuts-jobs-after-going-up-against-apple?sref=M65jzF3E

    Smartphone maker Oppo is cutting around 20% of staff in key software and device teams after it merged operations with affiliate OnePlus, the first major consolidation in a Chinese mobile industry struggling with chip shortages and Covid-triggered economic shocks.

    Oppo, which in 2016 became the country’s top-selling brand, is retrenching after expanding too rapidly on the hiring front in recent years and attacking a premium segment dominated by Apple Inc., people familiar with the matter said. The cuts affect important units including a team that customizes Android into its in-house ColorOS, and an Internet of Things division that develops a spectrum of wearables such as smartwatches and earbuds, said the people, asking not to be identified discussing a private matter.

    Oppo has merged since mid-2021 with smaller high-end brand OnePlus, with which it shares backers, to pool development resources and reduce overhead, but that’s creating redundant positions. Its R&D team for phones and overseas sales positions haven’t been impacted yet by cuts, one of the people said. An Oppo representative declined to comment for the story.

    Shenzhen-based Oppo built one of China’s biggest smartphone brands by rallying private retailers in rural areas and tricking out its devices with larger batteries and memory. But heavy investments to expand into markets from India to Southeast Asia and Europe have not paid off as expected against fierce competition from the likes of Xiaomi Corp. and Apple. It’s now contending with a Chinese retail slowdown as Covid’s resurgence locks down parts of the country.


    Taiwan is powerless to prevent a brain drain. Top scientists have already moved in both directions. Normal business in that regard. On top of that, they often do not have to leave Taiwan. HiSilicon and Huawei have offices there. 

    Talking about 'now' is simply stating the obvious. We already know what the situation is now. Huawei is moving into the foundry business and clearly with the goal of eliminating US elements from the supply chain. It will start with larger process modes and move down.

    It doesn't have any alternative. US semi conductor interests will suffer as a result. Billions in lost revenues. That is already happening. TSMC is also losing billions but on top of that, it knows Huawei is destined to become a top level competitor, further complicating its situation.

    In the short term, US technology will be pulled out of the international supply chain to accommodate 'politically safe' alternatives to Huawei while it develops its own foundry business. 

    Currently, it looks like they already have the technical capacity to do this down to 3nm or will have soon. From there, it is a question of finding the production capacity. 

    Samsung, SMIC and Mediatek the rumoured manufacturers. 

    In the case of 5G chipsets, one particular component is currently holding things back and obviously you can expect that problem to be resolved as a priority. 

    The sun and submarines are irrevelant to Huawei. 


    FFS, stop self medicating hallucinagens...

    TSMC and Samsung just raised prices into the double digits. They aren't losing anything at all today from lack of Huawei/HiSilicon orders simply because TSMC is production constrained for at least another year. Even after that, HiSilicon/Huawei/PRC will still not have those nodes that are in highest demand for computing products, including smartphones. TSMC's strongest competition is coming from the same  Western supply chain that is concerned about the PRC invading Taiwan, hence why TSMC is building a fab in Arizona.

    Your wishful thinking may be true 5 to 10 years into the future, but it isn't anywhere true today, and there isn't a chance in hell of SMIC getting 3 nm production within the next 5 years without currently banned Western technology. Meanwhile, Intel is getting back on its feet, and that is going to have an impact in the PC and Cloud realm that Arm is attempting to enter.

    More to the point, why aren't you pushing EU semiconductor tech? Is it that you are so biased for the PRC that you can't even support your own EU industries? How fucked up is that.

    I posted the submarine and EU links because it is yet another indicator of the West coalescing around constraining China in the Indo Pacific, which has and does effect Huawei. The PRC's only friends are other authoritarians; North Korea, Iran, Russia, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Turkey. I'm sure there are plenty of smaller countries that will throw in with the PRC as well.
    You seem to be not seeing the forest for the trees. 

    'computing' doesn't happen only at the smallest process nodes.

    Computing happens at every node and the highest end modes represent a minuscule fraction of the market. Perhaps even less than miniscule. 

    It doesn't matter how strained Intel, TSMC, Samsung or SMIC are. 

    If it hadn't been for Trump Huawei would still be getting its share of fabrication. That is capacity it had reserved under contract. That capacity can be redirected to other customers while bans persist but does not mean HiSilicon has necessarily nowhere to go. That is frankly ridiculous and clearly not the case as HiSilicon has increased its efforts and is actively recruiting worldwide.

    I suggest you just sit and wait and see. 

    Submarines and sun are irrevelant. 

    Huawei has gone on record as saying that the mobile business unit isn't going anywhere. They are re-jigging supply lines and getting into the foundry business because they have no other option.




    So, you acknowledge that Huawei/HiSilicon has no current foundry capability or availability suitable for smartphones;

    https://www.theburnin.com/technology/huawei-interested-building-domestically-sourced-chip-plant-2020-11-02/

    Huawei intends to launch a chip factory in China that utilizes locally developed technology to make its electronic components, Financial Times reported. The corporation wants the facility to produce its non-smartphone parts without using American-derived technology to avoid U.S. sanctions.

    There is no avenue for Huawei to make its own processors for smartphones anytime soon.
    'acknowledge'??? 

    Did you even read what I wrote? 

    Huawei has plenty of options - right now! 

    It has been using Qualcomm and Mediatek chips for years but this isn't Lego. You can't just switch lanes at the drop of a hat. Everything needs to be re-jigged. That takes time. 

    As far as Kirin goes, there is all manner of talk but nothing official yet. The most optimistic rumours have things moving at the end of this year. The most pessimistic in about four years. No one knows. 

    Huawei has been making huge strides in sourcing non-US components. It is estimated that US sourcing is currently around the 5% mark for recent phones.

    'anytime soon' is a ridiculous claim when the only thing that is currently in the way is a geopolitical constraint. 

    Its foundry aspirations are already underway and it is investing in every single step of the manufacturing process. The US had just one bullet in the chamber which is more than likely to end up firmly in its foot (or worse)! 

    https://towardfreedom.org/story/archives/asia-archives/chip-war-can-the-united-states-really-gain-from-chinas-pain/

    https://techblog.comsoc.org/2021/07/05/huawei-investment-subsidiary-buys-40-companies-in-3-years-to-reconstruct-semiconductor-supply-chain/

    I suggest you just sit back and see what happens. 
    I'll take a short nap until late 2025. That would be a better use of my time than to just "sit back and see what happens".

    Maybe you'll be "right" in 2025, although semiconductor nodes are a moving target, so it is more likely that HiSilicon will be at a node current today, yet still behind TSMC and Intel in 2025.
    Remember, if they can substitute the US-origin parts that TSMC is currently using that might be enough. And what would happen if ASML pulled its office from the US?

    Geopolitics is a funny game but Huawei knows how desperate the US is and is already planning for its independence of US tech. 

    The rest of the non-US semi conductor industry is no doubt loving the idea of taking on Huawei's multi billion dollar orders and as I alluded to further up, high end process nodes probably don't represent any more 2% of the global market.

    It's the remaining 98% that matters and that's a piece of cake for anyone (capacity permitting). 
    ASML uses licensed U.S. Technology. Moving out of the U.S. won't eliminate that. More to the point, the Dutch aren't actually keen on the PRC getting EUV technology.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-asml-holding-usa-china-insight/trump-administration-pressed-dutch-hard-to-cancel-china-chip-equipment-sale-sources-idUSKBN1Z50HN

    The problem for SMIC, is that they are foundry for "dual use" technology; ie, civilian and military use.


    Huawei can plan independence of U.S., and Western, tech as much as they want, but creating it, or even stealing it, isn't a rapid process.

    I reiterate; the world's semiconductor fabs are already maxed out, so they couldn't source to Huawei if they wanted to. Maybe in another year, but in the meantime, Nokia, Ericsson and Samsung seem to be doing quite well in Telecom.
    You obviously like making me repeat myself. Huawei hasn't breached any contract with TSMC. It very probably had a fair bit of capacity reserved. Due to the ban, which has nothing to do with Huawei (or TSMC for that matter), that production capacity has been dedicated to other customers. No doubt with clauses that allow TSMC to cater to Huawei's needs if the current bans are lifted. These are not yearly contracts we are talking about. Huawei's 3nm efforts were very advanced at the time the ban came into effect. There were even claims that Huawei would be TSMC's first 3nm customer. Seeing as Huawei was not only one of TSMC's biggest customers but also a very long term one, it would be logical for contracts to already be in place.

    Current constraints on supply don't mean that Huawei has no options. There have been continuous rumours of Samsung waiting in the wings to serve Huawei. 

    We will just have to wait and see. 

    SMIC and dual use is irrelevant. It is also moving to eliminate US dependence and again, I will repeat myself. I provided a link to Hubble's investment activities. Huawei already has a wafer fab under construction. There will be more and every single link in the supply and production chain that contains US origin technology is being eliminated. There is no stopping that. 
  • Reply 13 of 16
    tmaytmay Posts: 5,458member
    avon b7 said:
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    Even with 5G, Huawei just isn’t that great. 

    Anyone who’s used both will auto choose the iPhone. 

    And the pricing strategy for the 13 is brilliant. 

    Still would like to see Apple have an exit strategy from China. 
    Can you give examples to back that claim up?

    Huawei has consistently been the top of the camera ratings. To many, it still is!

    https://www.dxomark.com/huawei-p50-pro-camera-review-outstanding-in-all-areas/

    It has some of the best WiFi converged capabilities on the market. It has probably one of the best reputations out there for battery life. Its charging technologies (wired or wireless, normal or reversed) are way ahead of Apple's. So are its antenna technologies. It had an on SoC 5G modem before Apple had 5G (bolted on).

    "Anyone who's used both will auto choose an iPhone". 

    No. The article is basically saying the complete opposite of that!

    Huawei is currently re-jigging its supply chain to irradicate US technology dependencies.

    US semi conductor manufacturers are so worried about losing Huawei trade that the semi conductor association wrote directly to the White House warning of the impact of any ban.

    https://www.mobileworldlive.com/featured-content/top-three/us-chip-association-presses-for-export-control-review

    HiSilicon (far from scaling back its activity) is on a worldwide hiring spree for top talent.

    https://www.world-today-news.com/huawei-hisilicon-recruits-specialists-from-all-over-the-world-promising-5-times-higher-salary/

    It is even getting into the foundry business and pulling talent away from TSMC. Over 130 companies have requested licences to do business with Huawei. Google is probably number one on the list after seeing HarmonyOS hit 100 million updates in two and a half months (not including products that ship with HarmonyOS out of the box).

     https://www.gizchina.com/2021/09/13/harmonyos-2-increases-its-target-for-this-year-to-400-million-units/

    There will be an obvious lull in flagship activity while things are re-aligned and competitors (Apple is just one) can obviously take advantage of that (and catch up!) but it is only because of government action, not the products made by the company. 


    HiSilicon is a design company, not a foundry. Taiwan is restricting China companies from hiring their semiconductor talent;

    https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Tech/Semiconductors/Taiwan-bans-recruitment-for-jobs-in-China-to-combat-brain-drain

    https://news.clearancejobs.com/2021/06/22/quiet-concerns-over-taiwans-chip-domination/

    There are no Chinese foundries with capabilities below 10nm, so no SOC for smartphones fabricated in China. China is a few percentage points of 10 nm production compared to the rest of the world.

    Given the backlogs in the semiconductor industry, I doubt that the U.S. Semconductor Association will make any headway in opening up increased sales to Huawei. To date, Huawei has not been able to access Samsung or TMSC for SOC production of existing HiSilicon designs. I do not believe that Huawei will be able to access Qualcomm either.

    Xiaomi, et al, are filling in the sales void that Huawei absence has left.

    There will be an obvious lull in flagship activity while things are re-aligned and competitors (Apple is just one) can obviously take advantage of that (and catch up!) but it is only because of government action, not the products made by the company. 
    Huawei did in fact have the leading smartphone based on DXOmark, and these were sold in relatively small numbers, maybe in the tens of thousands, maybe a few hundreds of thousands. At the same time, it is Apple that sells the bulk of iPhones at prices above the $400, and $800 tiers, and even it's Pro models sell in the 10's of millions. Of course, iPhone sales for Apple start at $399, so even that price point is only a couple of percent of sales.

    I don't foresee Huawei reentering the smartphone market outside of China. Its Chinese OEM competitors will have staked out that space. That doesn't bode well for Harmony OS outside of China.

    Huawei Telecom is hurting as well;

    https://www.fiercetelecom.com/tech/ericsson-nokia-benefit-most-from-first-half-2021-telco-network-spend

    Huawei soared too close to the sun. They should have never been so closely attached to the PRC.

    of note;

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-58564837

    The UK, US and Australia have announced a historic security pact in the Asia-Pacific, in what's seen as an effort to counter China.

    It will let Australia build nuclear-powered submarines for the first time, using technology provided by the US.

    The Aukus pact, which will also cover AI and other technologies, is one of the countries' biggest defence partnerships in decades, analysts say.

    China has condemned the agreement as "extremely irresponsible".

    Foreign ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said it "seriously undermines regional peace and stability and intensifies the arms race".

    China's embassy in Washington accused the countries of a "Cold War mentality and ideological prejudice".

    This is all on Xi Jinping.

    But wait, there's more;

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/1-australia-arms-deal-flop-105029254.html

    BRUSSELS, Sept 16 (Reuters) - The European Union set out a formal strategy on Thursday to boost its presence in the Indo-Pacific and counter China's rising power, pledging to seek a trade deal with Taiwan and to deploy more ships to keep open sea routes.

    The EU's foreign policy chief Josep Borrell insisted the strategy was also open to China, particularly in areas such as climate change, but diplomats told Reuters that deeper ties with India, Japan, Australia and Taiwan were aimed at limiting Beijing's power.

    Borrell also said Wednesday's agreement https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-security-biden-asia/china-fumes-over-australias-nuclear-sub-pact-with-u-s-britain-idUSKBN2GB2BN between the United States, Australia and Britain to establish a security partnership for the Indo-Pacific, in which the EU was not consulted, showed the need for a more assertive foreign policy.

    He said the EU was eager to work with Britain on security but that London had shown no interest since it left the bloc, expressing regret that Australia had cancelled a $40 billion submarine deal with France.

    "We must survive on our own, as others do," Borrell said as he presented a new EU strategy for the Indo-Pacific region, talking of the "strategic autonomy" that French President Emmanuel Macron has championed.

    https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/QANDA_21_4709

    Taiwan will be happy to buy those submarines.

    Oh what the fuck now;

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-16/chinese-smartphone-giant-cuts-jobs-after-going-up-against-apple?sref=M65jzF3E

    Smartphone maker Oppo is cutting around 20% of staff in key software and device teams after it merged operations with affiliate OnePlus, the first major consolidation in a Chinese mobile industry struggling with chip shortages and Covid-triggered economic shocks.

    Oppo, which in 2016 became the country’s top-selling brand, is retrenching after expanding too rapidly on the hiring front in recent years and attacking a premium segment dominated by Apple Inc., people familiar with the matter said. The cuts affect important units including a team that customizes Android into its in-house ColorOS, and an Internet of Things division that develops a spectrum of wearables such as smartwatches and earbuds, said the people, asking not to be identified discussing a private matter.

    Oppo has merged since mid-2021 with smaller high-end brand OnePlus, with which it shares backers, to pool development resources and reduce overhead, but that’s creating redundant positions. Its R&D team for phones and overseas sales positions haven’t been impacted yet by cuts, one of the people said. An Oppo representative declined to comment for the story.

    Shenzhen-based Oppo built one of China’s biggest smartphone brands by rallying private retailers in rural areas and tricking out its devices with larger batteries and memory. But heavy investments to expand into markets from India to Southeast Asia and Europe have not paid off as expected against fierce competition from the likes of Xiaomi Corp. and Apple. It’s now contending with a Chinese retail slowdown as Covid’s resurgence locks down parts of the country.


    Taiwan is powerless to prevent a brain drain. Top scientists have already moved in both directions. Normal business in that regard. On top of that, they often do not have to leave Taiwan. HiSilicon and Huawei have offices there. 

    Talking about 'now' is simply stating the obvious. We already know what the situation is now. Huawei is moving into the foundry business and clearly with the goal of eliminating US elements from the supply chain. It will start with larger process modes and move down.

    It doesn't have any alternative. US semi conductor interests will suffer as a result. Billions in lost revenues. That is already happening. TSMC is also losing billions but on top of that, it knows Huawei is destined to become a top level competitor, further complicating its situation.

    In the short term, US technology will be pulled out of the international supply chain to accommodate 'politically safe' alternatives to Huawei while it develops its own foundry business. 

    Currently, it looks like they already have the technical capacity to do this down to 3nm or will have soon. From there, it is a question of finding the production capacity. 

    Samsung, SMIC and Mediatek the rumoured manufacturers. 

    In the case of 5G chipsets, one particular component is currently holding things back and obviously you can expect that problem to be resolved as a priority. 

    The sun and submarines are irrevelant to Huawei. 


    FFS, stop self medicating hallucinagens...

    TSMC and Samsung just raised prices into the double digits. They aren't losing anything at all today from lack of Huawei/HiSilicon orders simply because TSMC is production constrained for at least another year. Even after that, HiSilicon/Huawei/PRC will still not have those nodes that are in highest demand for computing products, including smartphones. TSMC's strongest competition is coming from the same  Western supply chain that is concerned about the PRC invading Taiwan, hence why TSMC is building a fab in Arizona.

    Your wishful thinking may be true 5 to 10 years into the future, but it isn't anywhere true today, and there isn't a chance in hell of SMIC getting 3 nm production within the next 5 years without currently banned Western technology. Meanwhile, Intel is getting back on its feet, and that is going to have an impact in the PC and Cloud realm that Arm is attempting to enter.

    More to the point, why aren't you pushing EU semiconductor tech? Is it that you are so biased for the PRC that you can't even support your own EU industries? How fucked up is that.

    I posted the submarine and EU links because it is yet another indicator of the West coalescing around constraining China in the Indo Pacific, which has and does effect Huawei. The PRC's only friends are other authoritarians; North Korea, Iran, Russia, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Turkey. I'm sure there are plenty of smaller countries that will throw in with the PRC as well.
    You seem to be not seeing the forest for the trees. 

    'computing' doesn't happen only at the smallest process nodes.

    Computing happens at every node and the highest end modes represent a minuscule fraction of the market. Perhaps even less than miniscule. 

    It doesn't matter how strained Intel, TSMC, Samsung or SMIC are. 

    If it hadn't been for Trump Huawei would still be getting its share of fabrication. That is capacity it had reserved under contract. That capacity can be redirected to other customers while bans persist but does not mean HiSilicon has necessarily nowhere to go. That is frankly ridiculous and clearly not the case as HiSilicon has increased its efforts and is actively recruiting worldwide.

    I suggest you just sit and wait and see. 

    Submarines and sun are irrevelant. 

    Huawei has gone on record as saying that the mobile business unit isn't going anywhere. They are re-jigging supply lines and getting into the foundry business because they have no other option.




    So, you acknowledge that Huawei/HiSilicon has no current foundry capability or availability suitable for smartphones;

    https://www.theburnin.com/technology/huawei-interested-building-domestically-sourced-chip-plant-2020-11-02/

    Huawei intends to launch a chip factory in China that utilizes locally developed technology to make its electronic components, Financial Times reported. The corporation wants the facility to produce its non-smartphone parts without using American-derived technology to avoid U.S. sanctions.

    There is no avenue for Huawei to make its own processors for smartphones anytime soon.
    'acknowledge'??? 

    Did you even read what I wrote? 

    Huawei has plenty of options - right now! 

    It has been using Qualcomm and Mediatek chips for years but this isn't Lego. You can't just switch lanes at the drop of a hat. Everything needs to be re-jigged. That takes time. 

    As far as Kirin goes, there is all manner of talk but nothing official yet. The most optimistic rumours have things moving at the end of this year. The most pessimistic in about four years. No one knows. 

    Huawei has been making huge strides in sourcing non-US components. It is estimated that US sourcing is currently around the 5% mark for recent phones.

    'anytime soon' is a ridiculous claim when the only thing that is currently in the way is a geopolitical constraint. 

    Its foundry aspirations are already underway and it is investing in every single step of the manufacturing process. The US had just one bullet in the chamber which is more than likely to end up firmly in its foot (or worse)! 

    https://towardfreedom.org/story/archives/asia-archives/chip-war-can-the-united-states-really-gain-from-chinas-pain/

    https://techblog.comsoc.org/2021/07/05/huawei-investment-subsidiary-buys-40-companies-in-3-years-to-reconstruct-semiconductor-supply-chain/

    I suggest you just sit back and see what happens. 
    I'll take a short nap until late 2025. That would be a better use of my time than to just "sit back and see what happens".

    Maybe you'll be "right" in 2025, although semiconductor nodes are a moving target, so it is more likely that HiSilicon will be at a node current today, yet still behind TSMC and Intel in 2025.
    Remember, if they can substitute the US-origin parts that TSMC is currently using that might be enough. And what would happen if ASML pulled its office from the US?

    Geopolitics is a funny game but Huawei knows how desperate the US is and is already planning for its independence of US tech. 

    The rest of the non-US semi conductor industry is no doubt loving the idea of taking on Huawei's multi billion dollar orders and as I alluded to further up, high end process nodes probably don't represent any more 2% of the global market.

    It's the remaining 98% that matters and that's a piece of cake for anyone (capacity permitting). 
    ASML uses licensed U.S. Technology. Moving out of the U.S. won't eliminate that. More to the point, the Dutch aren't actually keen on the PRC getting EUV technology.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-asml-holding-usa-china-insight/trump-administration-pressed-dutch-hard-to-cancel-china-chip-equipment-sale-sources-idUSKBN1Z50HN

    The problem for SMIC, is that they are foundry for "dual use" technology; ie, civilian and military use.


    Huawei can plan independence of U.S., and Western, tech as much as they want, but creating it, or even stealing it, isn't a rapid process.

    I reiterate; the world's semiconductor fabs are already maxed out, so they couldn't source to Huawei if they wanted to. Maybe in another year, but in the meantime, Nokia, Ericsson and Samsung seem to be doing quite well in Telecom.
    You obviously like making me repeat myself. Huawei hasn't breached any contract with TSMC. It very probably had a fair bit of capacity reserved. Due to the ban, which has nothing to do with Huawei (or TSMC for that matter), that production capacity has been dedicated to other customers. No doubt with clauses that allow TSMC to cater to Huawei's needs if the current bans are lifted. These are not yearly contracts we are talking about. Huawei's 3nm efforts were very advanced at the time the ban came into effect. There were even claims that Huawei would be TSMC's first 3nm customer. Seeing as Huawei was not only one of TSMC's biggest customers but also a very long term one, it would be logical for contracts to already be in place.

    Current constraints on supply don't mean that Huawei has no options. There have been continuous rumours of Samsung waiting in the wings to serve Huawei. 

    We will just have to wait and see. 

    SMIC and dual use is irrelevant. It is also moving to eliminate US dependence and again, I will repeat myself. I provided a link to Hubble's investment activities. Huawei already has a wafer fab under construction. There will be more and every single link in the supply and production chain that contains US origin technology is being eliminated. There is no stopping that. 
    LOL!

    What part of the PRC threatening invasion of Taiwan do you not understand? 

    Do you really think that TSMC is going to put in effort to cater to Huawei/HiSilicon under those circumstances, especially since there are plenty of Western companies that will purchase the production on those nodes?

    https://www.scmp.com/tech/tech-war/article/3133235/us-china-tech-war-taiwans-tsmc-joins-american-chip-coalition-another

    Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Co (TSMC), the world’s biggest chip foundry, has joined a new lobbying group dominated by top American chip developers and users, in a move that may make it harder for China to wean itself off a US-led global semiconductor supply chain.

    The Semiconductors in America Coalition (SIAC), which includes 65 major players along the semiconductor value chain, announced its formation on Tuesday with the immediate purpose of pushing the American government to provide subsidies for chip manufacturing on US soil.

    https://www.chipsinamerica.org/about/#members

    https://www.gizmochina.com/2021/08/16/apple-secure-majority-tsmc-3nm-over-intel/

    While TSMC is on track to bring its 3nm process technology to volume production in the second half of next year, a new report has revealed that the majority of TSMC’s 3nm production capacity has been secured by Apple.

    According to a DigiTimes report (Via HardwareTimes), the Cupertino based giant will be the major client of TSMC’s 3nm production in the 2022. The iPhone maker will be followed by AMD and NVIDIA. Unfortunately, Intel won’t be able to offer 3nm chips till 2023. Notably, this news contradicts previous reports, which stated that even Intel has secured majority of TSMC’s 3nm production capacity, and now suggests that the Apple will be its major client for the 3nm process.

    As per the latest report, TSMC, the world’s largest contract chipmaker will be unlikely to fulfill any orders for Intel till 2023. In other words, Apple will be the chipmaker’s primary customer for its most advances process technology. As of right now, TSMC’s 7nm and 5nm production capacities are reaching their limits and 3nm is set to begin mass production in the second half of 2022. With Apple being one of its first 3nm clients, iPhones and Apple’s other products like Macs could also benefit by adopting the cutting edge process.



    edited September 18 watto_cobra
  • Reply 14 of 16
    avon b7avon b7 Posts: 5,937member
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    Even with 5G, Huawei just isn’t that great. 

    Anyone who’s used both will auto choose the iPhone. 

    And the pricing strategy for the 13 is brilliant. 

    Still would like to see Apple have an exit strategy from China. 
    Can you give examples to back that claim up?

    Huawei has consistently been the top of the camera ratings. To many, it still is!

    https://www.dxomark.com/huawei-p50-pro-camera-review-outstanding-in-all-areas/

    It has some of the best WiFi converged capabilities on the market. It has probably one of the best reputations out there for battery life. Its charging technologies (wired or wireless, normal or reversed) are way ahead of Apple's. So are its antenna technologies. It had an on SoC 5G modem before Apple had 5G (bolted on).

    "Anyone who's used both will auto choose an iPhone". 

    No. The article is basically saying the complete opposite of that!

    Huawei is currently re-jigging its supply chain to irradicate US technology dependencies.

    US semi conductor manufacturers are so worried about losing Huawei trade that the semi conductor association wrote directly to the White House warning of the impact of any ban.

    https://www.mobileworldlive.com/featured-content/top-three/us-chip-association-presses-for-export-control-review

    HiSilicon (far from scaling back its activity) is on a worldwide hiring spree for top talent.

    https://www.world-today-news.com/huawei-hisilicon-recruits-specialists-from-all-over-the-world-promising-5-times-higher-salary/

    It is even getting into the foundry business and pulling talent away from TSMC. Over 130 companies have requested licences to do business with Huawei. Google is probably number one on the list after seeing HarmonyOS hit 100 million updates in two and a half months (not including products that ship with HarmonyOS out of the box).

     https://www.gizchina.com/2021/09/13/harmonyos-2-increases-its-target-for-this-year-to-400-million-units/

    There will be an obvious lull in flagship activity while things are re-aligned and competitors (Apple is just one) can obviously take advantage of that (and catch up!) but it is only because of government action, not the products made by the company. 


    HiSilicon is a design company, not a foundry. Taiwan is restricting China companies from hiring their semiconductor talent;

    https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Tech/Semiconductors/Taiwan-bans-recruitment-for-jobs-in-China-to-combat-brain-drain

    https://news.clearancejobs.com/2021/06/22/quiet-concerns-over-taiwans-chip-domination/

    There are no Chinese foundries with capabilities below 10nm, so no SOC for smartphones fabricated in China. China is a few percentage points of 10 nm production compared to the rest of the world.

    Given the backlogs in the semiconductor industry, I doubt that the U.S. Semconductor Association will make any headway in opening up increased sales to Huawei. To date, Huawei has not been able to access Samsung or TMSC for SOC production of existing HiSilicon designs. I do not believe that Huawei will be able to access Qualcomm either.

    Xiaomi, et al, are filling in the sales void that Huawei absence has left.

    There will be an obvious lull in flagship activity while things are re-aligned and competitors (Apple is just one) can obviously take advantage of that (and catch up!) but it is only because of government action, not the products made by the company. 
    Huawei did in fact have the leading smartphone based on DXOmark, and these were sold in relatively small numbers, maybe in the tens of thousands, maybe a few hundreds of thousands. At the same time, it is Apple that sells the bulk of iPhones at prices above the $400, and $800 tiers, and even it's Pro models sell in the 10's of millions. Of course, iPhone sales for Apple start at $399, so even that price point is only a couple of percent of sales.

    I don't foresee Huawei reentering the smartphone market outside of China. Its Chinese OEM competitors will have staked out that space. That doesn't bode well for Harmony OS outside of China.

    Huawei Telecom is hurting as well;

    https://www.fiercetelecom.com/tech/ericsson-nokia-benefit-most-from-first-half-2021-telco-network-spend

    Huawei soared too close to the sun. They should have never been so closely attached to the PRC.

    of note;

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-58564837

    The UK, US and Australia have announced a historic security pact in the Asia-Pacific, in what's seen as an effort to counter China.

    It will let Australia build nuclear-powered submarines for the first time, using technology provided by the US.

    The Aukus pact, which will also cover AI and other technologies, is one of the countries' biggest defence partnerships in decades, analysts say.

    China has condemned the agreement as "extremely irresponsible".

    Foreign ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said it "seriously undermines regional peace and stability and intensifies the arms race".

    China's embassy in Washington accused the countries of a "Cold War mentality and ideological prejudice".

    This is all on Xi Jinping.

    But wait, there's more;

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/1-australia-arms-deal-flop-105029254.html

    BRUSSELS, Sept 16 (Reuters) - The European Union set out a formal strategy on Thursday to boost its presence in the Indo-Pacific and counter China's rising power, pledging to seek a trade deal with Taiwan and to deploy more ships to keep open sea routes.

    The EU's foreign policy chief Josep Borrell insisted the strategy was also open to China, particularly in areas such as climate change, but diplomats told Reuters that deeper ties with India, Japan, Australia and Taiwan were aimed at limiting Beijing's power.

    Borrell also said Wednesday's agreement https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-security-biden-asia/china-fumes-over-australias-nuclear-sub-pact-with-u-s-britain-idUSKBN2GB2BN between the United States, Australia and Britain to establish a security partnership for the Indo-Pacific, in which the EU was not consulted, showed the need for a more assertive foreign policy.

    He said the EU was eager to work with Britain on security but that London had shown no interest since it left the bloc, expressing regret that Australia had cancelled a $40 billion submarine deal with France.

    "We must survive on our own, as others do," Borrell said as he presented a new EU strategy for the Indo-Pacific region, talking of the "strategic autonomy" that French President Emmanuel Macron has championed.

    https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/QANDA_21_4709

    Taiwan will be happy to buy those submarines.

    Oh what the fuck now;

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-16/chinese-smartphone-giant-cuts-jobs-after-going-up-against-apple?sref=M65jzF3E

    Smartphone maker Oppo is cutting around 20% of staff in key software and device teams after it merged operations with affiliate OnePlus, the first major consolidation in a Chinese mobile industry struggling with chip shortages and Covid-triggered economic shocks.

    Oppo, which in 2016 became the country’s top-selling brand, is retrenching after expanding too rapidly on the hiring front in recent years and attacking a premium segment dominated by Apple Inc., people familiar with the matter said. The cuts affect important units including a team that customizes Android into its in-house ColorOS, and an Internet of Things division that develops a spectrum of wearables such as smartwatches and earbuds, said the people, asking not to be identified discussing a private matter.

    Oppo has merged since mid-2021 with smaller high-end brand OnePlus, with which it shares backers, to pool development resources and reduce overhead, but that’s creating redundant positions. Its R&D team for phones and overseas sales positions haven’t been impacted yet by cuts, one of the people said. An Oppo representative declined to comment for the story.

    Shenzhen-based Oppo built one of China’s biggest smartphone brands by rallying private retailers in rural areas and tricking out its devices with larger batteries and memory. But heavy investments to expand into markets from India to Southeast Asia and Europe have not paid off as expected against fierce competition from the likes of Xiaomi Corp. and Apple. It’s now contending with a Chinese retail slowdown as Covid’s resurgence locks down parts of the country.


    Taiwan is powerless to prevent a brain drain. Top scientists have already moved in both directions. Normal business in that regard. On top of that, they often do not have to leave Taiwan. HiSilicon and Huawei have offices there. 

    Talking about 'now' is simply stating the obvious. We already know what the situation is now. Huawei is moving into the foundry business and clearly with the goal of eliminating US elements from the supply chain. It will start with larger process modes and move down.

    It doesn't have any alternative. US semi conductor interests will suffer as a result. Billions in lost revenues. That is already happening. TSMC is also losing billions but on top of that, it knows Huawei is destined to become a top level competitor, further complicating its situation.

    In the short term, US technology will be pulled out of the international supply chain to accommodate 'politically safe' alternatives to Huawei while it develops its own foundry business. 

    Currently, it looks like they already have the technical capacity to do this down to 3nm or will have soon. From there, it is a question of finding the production capacity. 

    Samsung, SMIC and Mediatek the rumoured manufacturers. 

    In the case of 5G chipsets, one particular component is currently holding things back and obviously you can expect that problem to be resolved as a priority. 

    The sun and submarines are irrevelant to Huawei. 


    FFS, stop self medicating hallucinagens...

    TSMC and Samsung just raised prices into the double digits. They aren't losing anything at all today from lack of Huawei/HiSilicon orders simply because TSMC is production constrained for at least another year. Even after that, HiSilicon/Huawei/PRC will still not have those nodes that are in highest demand for computing products, including smartphones. TSMC's strongest competition is coming from the same  Western supply chain that is concerned about the PRC invading Taiwan, hence why TSMC is building a fab in Arizona.

    Your wishful thinking may be true 5 to 10 years into the future, but it isn't anywhere true today, and there isn't a chance in hell of SMIC getting 3 nm production within the next 5 years without currently banned Western technology. Meanwhile, Intel is getting back on its feet, and that is going to have an impact in the PC and Cloud realm that Arm is attempting to enter.

    More to the point, why aren't you pushing EU semiconductor tech? Is it that you are so biased for the PRC that you can't even support your own EU industries? How fucked up is that.

    I posted the submarine and EU links because it is yet another indicator of the West coalescing around constraining China in the Indo Pacific, which has and does effect Huawei. The PRC's only friends are other authoritarians; North Korea, Iran, Russia, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Turkey. I'm sure there are plenty of smaller countries that will throw in with the PRC as well.
    You seem to be not seeing the forest for the trees. 

    'computing' doesn't happen only at the smallest process nodes.

    Computing happens at every node and the highest end modes represent a minuscule fraction of the market. Perhaps even less than miniscule. 

    It doesn't matter how strained Intel, TSMC, Samsung or SMIC are. 

    If it hadn't been for Trump Huawei would still be getting its share of fabrication. That is capacity it had reserved under contract. That capacity can be redirected to other customers while bans persist but does not mean HiSilicon has necessarily nowhere to go. That is frankly ridiculous and clearly not the case as HiSilicon has increased its efforts and is actively recruiting worldwide.

    I suggest you just sit and wait and see. 

    Submarines and sun are irrevelant. 

    Huawei has gone on record as saying that the mobile business unit isn't going anywhere. They are re-jigging supply lines and getting into the foundry business because they have no other option.




    So, you acknowledge that Huawei/HiSilicon has no current foundry capability or availability suitable for smartphones;

    https://www.theburnin.com/technology/huawei-interested-building-domestically-sourced-chip-plant-2020-11-02/

    Huawei intends to launch a chip factory in China that utilizes locally developed technology to make its electronic components, Financial Times reported. The corporation wants the facility to produce its non-smartphone parts without using American-derived technology to avoid U.S. sanctions.

    There is no avenue for Huawei to make its own processors for smartphones anytime soon.
    'acknowledge'??? 

    Did you even read what I wrote? 

    Huawei has plenty of options - right now! 

    It has been using Qualcomm and Mediatek chips for years but this isn't Lego. You can't just switch lanes at the drop of a hat. Everything needs to be re-jigged. That takes time. 

    As far as Kirin goes, there is all manner of talk but nothing official yet. The most optimistic rumours have things moving at the end of this year. The most pessimistic in about four years. No one knows. 

    Huawei has been making huge strides in sourcing non-US components. It is estimated that US sourcing is currently around the 5% mark for recent phones.

    'anytime soon' is a ridiculous claim when the only thing that is currently in the way is a geopolitical constraint. 

    Its foundry aspirations are already underway and it is investing in every single step of the manufacturing process. The US had just one bullet in the chamber which is more than likely to end up firmly in its foot (or worse)! 

    https://towardfreedom.org/story/archives/asia-archives/chip-war-can-the-united-states-really-gain-from-chinas-pain/

    https://techblog.comsoc.org/2021/07/05/huawei-investment-subsidiary-buys-40-companies-in-3-years-to-reconstruct-semiconductor-supply-chain/

    I suggest you just sit back and see what happens. 
    I'll take a short nap until late 2025. That would be a better use of my time than to just "sit back and see what happens".

    Maybe you'll be "right" in 2025, although semiconductor nodes are a moving target, so it is more likely that HiSilicon will be at a node current today, yet still behind TSMC and Intel in 2025.
    Remember, if they can substitute the US-origin parts that TSMC is currently using that might be enough. And what would happen if ASML pulled its office from the US?

    Geopolitics is a funny game but Huawei knows how desperate the US is and is already planning for its independence of US tech. 

    The rest of the non-US semi conductor industry is no doubt loving the idea of taking on Huawei's multi billion dollar orders and as I alluded to further up, high end process nodes probably don't represent any more 2% of the global market.

    It's the remaining 98% that matters and that's a piece of cake for anyone (capacity permitting). 
    ASML uses licensed U.S. Technology. Moving out of the U.S. won't eliminate that. More to the point, the Dutch aren't actually keen on the PRC getting EUV technology.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-asml-holding-usa-china-insight/trump-administration-pressed-dutch-hard-to-cancel-china-chip-equipment-sale-sources-idUSKBN1Z50HN

    The problem for SMIC, is that they are foundry for "dual use" technology; ie, civilian and military use.


    Huawei can plan independence of U.S., and Western, tech as much as they want, but creating it, or even stealing it, isn't a rapid process.

    I reiterate; the world's semiconductor fabs are already maxed out, so they couldn't source to Huawei if they wanted to. Maybe in another year, but in the meantime, Nokia, Ericsson and Samsung seem to be doing quite well in Telecom.
    You obviously like making me repeat myself. Huawei hasn't breached any contract with TSMC. It very probably had a fair bit of capacity reserved. Due to the ban, which has nothing to do with Huawei (or TSMC for that matter), that production capacity has been dedicated to other customers. No doubt with clauses that allow TSMC to cater to Huawei's needs if the current bans are lifted. These are not yearly contracts we are talking about. Huawei's 3nm efforts were very advanced at the time the ban came into effect. There were even claims that Huawei would be TSMC's first 3nm customer. Seeing as Huawei was not only one of TSMC's biggest customers but also a very long term one, it would be logical for contracts to already be in place.

    Current constraints on supply don't mean that Huawei has no options. There have been continuous rumours of Samsung waiting in the wings to serve Huawei. 

    We will just have to wait and see. 

    SMIC and dual use is irrelevant. It is also moving to eliminate US dependence and again, I will repeat myself. I provided a link to Hubble's investment activities. Huawei already has a wafer fab under construction. There will be more and every single link in the supply and production chain that contains US origin technology is being eliminated. There is no stopping that. 
    LOL!

    What part of the PRC threatening invasion of Taiwan do you not understand? 

    Do you really think that TSMC is going to put in effort to cater to Huawei/HiSilicon under those circumstances, especially since there are plenty of Western companies that will purchase the production on those nodes?

    https://www.scmp.com/tech/tech-war/article/3133235/us-china-tech-war-taiwans-tsmc-joins-american-chip-coalition-another

    Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Co (TSMC), the world’s biggest chip foundry, has joined a new lobbying group dominated by top American chip developers and users, in a move that may make it harder for China to wean itself off a US-led global semiconductor supply chain.

    The Semiconductors in America Coalition (SIAC), which includes 65 major players along the semiconductor value chain, announced its formation on Tuesday with the immediate purpose of pushing the American government to provide subsidies for chip manufacturing on US soil.

    https://www.chipsinamerica.org/about/#members

    https://www.gizmochina.com/2021/08/16/apple-secure-majority-tsmc-3nm-over-intel/

    While TSMC is on track to bring its 3nm process technology to volume production in the second half of next year, a new report has revealed that the majority of TSMC’s 3nm production capacity has been secured by Apple.

    According to a DigiTimes report (Via HardwareTimes), the Cupertino based giant will be the major client of TSMC’s 3nm production in the 2022. The iPhone maker will be followed by AMD and NVIDIA. Unfortunately, Intel won’t be able to offer 3nm chips till 2023. Notably, this news contradicts previous reports, which stated that even Intel has secured majority of TSMC’s 3nm production capacity, and now suggests that the Apple will be its major client for the 3nm process.

    As per the latest report, TSMC, the world’s largest contract chipmaker will be unlikely to fulfill any orders for Intel till 2023. In other words, Apple will be the chipmaker’s primary customer for its most advances process technology. As of right now, TSMC’s 7nm and 5nm production capacities are reaching their limits and 3nm is set to begin mass production in the second half of 2022. With Apple being one of its first 3nm clients, iPhones and Apple’s other products like Macs could also benefit by adopting the cutting edge process.



    Ah! Now it's crystal clear that you have no idea what you are talking about and haven't read or understood what I wrote. 

    SIAC has no bearing on TSMC's business with Huawei. Seeing that the US semiconductor industry is already up the creek without a paddle, are you surprised that companies are lobbying for government to put subsidies on the table? 

    Yes, TSMC is dedicating its Huawei 3nm capacity to Apple. That is what I've already stated. Now re-read what I wrote and try to understand it.


  • Reply 15 of 16
    tmaytmay Posts: 5,458member
    avon b7 said:
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    Even with 5G, Huawei just isn’t that great. 

    Anyone who’s used both will auto choose the iPhone. 

    And the pricing strategy for the 13 is brilliant. 

    Still would like to see Apple have an exit strategy from China. 
    Can you give examples to back that claim up?

    Huawei has consistently been the top of the camera ratings. To many, it still is!

    https://www.dxomark.com/huawei-p50-pro-camera-review-outstanding-in-all-areas/

    It has some of the best WiFi converged capabilities on the market. It has probably one of the best reputations out there for battery life. Its charging technologies (wired or wireless, normal or reversed) are way ahead of Apple's. So are its antenna technologies. It had an on SoC 5G modem before Apple had 5G (bolted on).

    "Anyone who's used both will auto choose an iPhone". 

    No. The article is basically saying the complete opposite of that!

    Huawei is currently re-jigging its supply chain to irradicate US technology dependencies.

    US semi conductor manufacturers are so worried about losing Huawei trade that the semi conductor association wrote directly to the White House warning of the impact of any ban.

    https://www.mobileworldlive.com/featured-content/top-three/us-chip-association-presses-for-export-control-review

    HiSilicon (far from scaling back its activity) is on a worldwide hiring spree for top talent.

    https://www.world-today-news.com/huawei-hisilicon-recruits-specialists-from-all-over-the-world-promising-5-times-higher-salary/

    It is even getting into the foundry business and pulling talent away from TSMC. Over 130 companies have requested licences to do business with Huawei. Google is probably number one on the list after seeing HarmonyOS hit 100 million updates in two and a half months (not including products that ship with HarmonyOS out of the box).

     https://www.gizchina.com/2021/09/13/harmonyos-2-increases-its-target-for-this-year-to-400-million-units/

    There will be an obvious lull in flagship activity while things are re-aligned and competitors (Apple is just one) can obviously take advantage of that (and catch up!) but it is only because of government action, not the products made by the company. 


    HiSilicon is a design company, not a foundry. Taiwan is restricting China companies from hiring their semiconductor talent;

    https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Tech/Semiconductors/Taiwan-bans-recruitment-for-jobs-in-China-to-combat-brain-drain

    https://news.clearancejobs.com/2021/06/22/quiet-concerns-over-taiwans-chip-domination/

    There are no Chinese foundries with capabilities below 10nm, so no SOC for smartphones fabricated in China. China is a few percentage points of 10 nm production compared to the rest of the world.

    Given the backlogs in the semiconductor industry, I doubt that the U.S. Semconductor Association will make any headway in opening up increased sales to Huawei. To date, Huawei has not been able to access Samsung or TMSC for SOC production of existing HiSilicon designs. I do not believe that Huawei will be able to access Qualcomm either.

    Xiaomi, et al, are filling in the sales void that Huawei absence has left.

    There will be an obvious lull in flagship activity while things are re-aligned and competitors (Apple is just one) can obviously take advantage of that (and catch up!) but it is only because of government action, not the products made by the company. 
    Huawei did in fact have the leading smartphone based on DXOmark, and these were sold in relatively small numbers, maybe in the tens of thousands, maybe a few hundreds of thousands. At the same time, it is Apple that sells the bulk of iPhones at prices above the $400, and $800 tiers, and even it's Pro models sell in the 10's of millions. Of course, iPhone sales for Apple start at $399, so even that price point is only a couple of percent of sales.

    I don't foresee Huawei reentering the smartphone market outside of China. Its Chinese OEM competitors will have staked out that space. That doesn't bode well for Harmony OS outside of China.

    Huawei Telecom is hurting as well;

    https://www.fiercetelecom.com/tech/ericsson-nokia-benefit-most-from-first-half-2021-telco-network-spend

    Huawei soared too close to the sun. They should have never been so closely attached to the PRC.

    of note;

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-58564837

    The UK, US and Australia have announced a historic security pact in the Asia-Pacific, in what's seen as an effort to counter China.

    It will let Australia build nuclear-powered submarines for the first time, using technology provided by the US.

    The Aukus pact, which will also cover AI and other technologies, is one of the countries' biggest defence partnerships in decades, analysts say.

    China has condemned the agreement as "extremely irresponsible".

    Foreign ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said it "seriously undermines regional peace and stability and intensifies the arms race".

    China's embassy in Washington accused the countries of a "Cold War mentality and ideological prejudice".

    This is all on Xi Jinping.

    But wait, there's more;

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/1-australia-arms-deal-flop-105029254.html

    BRUSSELS, Sept 16 (Reuters) - The European Union set out a formal strategy on Thursday to boost its presence in the Indo-Pacific and counter China's rising power, pledging to seek a trade deal with Taiwan and to deploy more ships to keep open sea routes.

    The EU's foreign policy chief Josep Borrell insisted the strategy was also open to China, particularly in areas such as climate change, but diplomats told Reuters that deeper ties with India, Japan, Australia and Taiwan were aimed at limiting Beijing's power.

    Borrell also said Wednesday's agreement https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-security-biden-asia/china-fumes-over-australias-nuclear-sub-pact-with-u-s-britain-idUSKBN2GB2BN between the United States, Australia and Britain to establish a security partnership for the Indo-Pacific, in which the EU was not consulted, showed the need for a more assertive foreign policy.

    He said the EU was eager to work with Britain on security but that London had shown no interest since it left the bloc, expressing regret that Australia had cancelled a $40 billion submarine deal with France.

    "We must survive on our own, as others do," Borrell said as he presented a new EU strategy for the Indo-Pacific region, talking of the "strategic autonomy" that French President Emmanuel Macron has championed.

    https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/QANDA_21_4709

    Taiwan will be happy to buy those submarines.

    Oh what the fuck now;

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-16/chinese-smartphone-giant-cuts-jobs-after-going-up-against-apple?sref=M65jzF3E

    Smartphone maker Oppo is cutting around 20% of staff in key software and device teams after it merged operations with affiliate OnePlus, the first major consolidation in a Chinese mobile industry struggling with chip shortages and Covid-triggered economic shocks.

    Oppo, which in 2016 became the country’s top-selling brand, is retrenching after expanding too rapidly on the hiring front in recent years and attacking a premium segment dominated by Apple Inc., people familiar with the matter said. The cuts affect important units including a team that customizes Android into its in-house ColorOS, and an Internet of Things division that develops a spectrum of wearables such as smartwatches and earbuds, said the people, asking not to be identified discussing a private matter.

    Oppo has merged since mid-2021 with smaller high-end brand OnePlus, with which it shares backers, to pool development resources and reduce overhead, but that’s creating redundant positions. Its R&D team for phones and overseas sales positions haven’t been impacted yet by cuts, one of the people said. An Oppo representative declined to comment for the story.

    Shenzhen-based Oppo built one of China’s biggest smartphone brands by rallying private retailers in rural areas and tricking out its devices with larger batteries and memory. But heavy investments to expand into markets from India to Southeast Asia and Europe have not paid off as expected against fierce competition from the likes of Xiaomi Corp. and Apple. It’s now contending with a Chinese retail slowdown as Covid’s resurgence locks down parts of the country.


    Taiwan is powerless to prevent a brain drain. Top scientists have already moved in both directions. Normal business in that regard. On top of that, they often do not have to leave Taiwan. HiSilicon and Huawei have offices there. 

    Talking about 'now' is simply stating the obvious. We already know what the situation is now. Huawei is moving into the foundry business and clearly with the goal of eliminating US elements from the supply chain. It will start with larger process modes and move down.

    It doesn't have any alternative. US semi conductor interests will suffer as a result. Billions in lost revenues. That is already happening. TSMC is also losing billions but on top of that, it knows Huawei is destined to become a top level competitor, further complicating its situation.

    In the short term, US technology will be pulled out of the international supply chain to accommodate 'politically safe' alternatives to Huawei while it develops its own foundry business. 

    Currently, it looks like they already have the technical capacity to do this down to 3nm or will have soon. From there, it is a question of finding the production capacity. 

    Samsung, SMIC and Mediatek the rumoured manufacturers. 

    In the case of 5G chipsets, one particular component is currently holding things back and obviously you can expect that problem to be resolved as a priority. 

    The sun and submarines are irrevelant to Huawei. 


    FFS, stop self medicating hallucinagens...

    TSMC and Samsung just raised prices into the double digits. They aren't losing anything at all today from lack of Huawei/HiSilicon orders simply because TSMC is production constrained for at least another year. Even after that, HiSilicon/Huawei/PRC will still not have those nodes that are in highest demand for computing products, including smartphones. TSMC's strongest competition is coming from the same  Western supply chain that is concerned about the PRC invading Taiwan, hence why TSMC is building a fab in Arizona.

    Your wishful thinking may be true 5 to 10 years into the future, but it isn't anywhere true today, and there isn't a chance in hell of SMIC getting 3 nm production within the next 5 years without currently banned Western technology. Meanwhile, Intel is getting back on its feet, and that is going to have an impact in the PC and Cloud realm that Arm is attempting to enter.

    More to the point, why aren't you pushing EU semiconductor tech? Is it that you are so biased for the PRC that you can't even support your own EU industries? How fucked up is that.

    I posted the submarine and EU links because it is yet another indicator of the West coalescing around constraining China in the Indo Pacific, which has and does effect Huawei. The PRC's only friends are other authoritarians; North Korea, Iran, Russia, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Turkey. I'm sure there are plenty of smaller countries that will throw in with the PRC as well.
    You seem to be not seeing the forest for the trees. 

    'computing' doesn't happen only at the smallest process nodes.

    Computing happens at every node and the highest end modes represent a minuscule fraction of the market. Perhaps even less than miniscule. 

    It doesn't matter how strained Intel, TSMC, Samsung or SMIC are. 

    If it hadn't been for Trump Huawei would still be getting its share of fabrication. That is capacity it had reserved under contract. That capacity can be redirected to other customers while bans persist but does not mean HiSilicon has necessarily nowhere to go. That is frankly ridiculous and clearly not the case as HiSilicon has increased its efforts and is actively recruiting worldwide.

    I suggest you just sit and wait and see. 

    Submarines and sun are irrevelant. 

    Huawei has gone on record as saying that the mobile business unit isn't going anywhere. They are re-jigging supply lines and getting into the foundry business because they have no other option.




    So, you acknowledge that Huawei/HiSilicon has no current foundry capability or availability suitable for smartphones;

    https://www.theburnin.com/technology/huawei-interested-building-domestically-sourced-chip-plant-2020-11-02/

    Huawei intends to launch a chip factory in China that utilizes locally developed technology to make its electronic components, Financial Times reported. The corporation wants the facility to produce its non-smartphone parts without using American-derived technology to avoid U.S. sanctions.

    There is no avenue for Huawei to make its own processors for smartphones anytime soon.
    'acknowledge'??? 

    Did you even read what I wrote? 

    Huawei has plenty of options - right now! 

    It has been using Qualcomm and Mediatek chips for years but this isn't Lego. You can't just switch lanes at the drop of a hat. Everything needs to be re-jigged. That takes time. 

    As far as Kirin goes, there is all manner of talk but nothing official yet. The most optimistic rumours have things moving at the end of this year. The most pessimistic in about four years. No one knows. 

    Huawei has been making huge strides in sourcing non-US components. It is estimated that US sourcing is currently around the 5% mark for recent phones.

    'anytime soon' is a ridiculous claim when the only thing that is currently in the way is a geopolitical constraint. 

    Its foundry aspirations are already underway and it is investing in every single step of the manufacturing process. The US had just one bullet in the chamber which is more than likely to end up firmly in its foot (or worse)! 

    https://towardfreedom.org/story/archives/asia-archives/chip-war-can-the-united-states-really-gain-from-chinas-pain/

    https://techblog.comsoc.org/2021/07/05/huawei-investment-subsidiary-buys-40-companies-in-3-years-to-reconstruct-semiconductor-supply-chain/

    I suggest you just sit back and see what happens. 
    I'll take a short nap until late 2025. That would be a better use of my time than to just "sit back and see what happens".

    Maybe you'll be "right" in 2025, although semiconductor nodes are a moving target, so it is more likely that HiSilicon will be at a node current today, yet still behind TSMC and Intel in 2025.
    Remember, if they can substitute the US-origin parts that TSMC is currently using that might be enough. And what would happen if ASML pulled its office from the US?

    Geopolitics is a funny game but Huawei knows how desperate the US is and is already planning for its independence of US tech. 

    The rest of the non-US semi conductor industry is no doubt loving the idea of taking on Huawei's multi billion dollar orders and as I alluded to further up, high end process nodes probably don't represent any more 2% of the global market.

    It's the remaining 98% that matters and that's a piece of cake for anyone (capacity permitting). 
    ASML uses licensed U.S. Technology. Moving out of the U.S. won't eliminate that. More to the point, the Dutch aren't actually keen on the PRC getting EUV technology.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-asml-holding-usa-china-insight/trump-administration-pressed-dutch-hard-to-cancel-china-chip-equipment-sale-sources-idUSKBN1Z50HN

    The problem for SMIC, is that they are foundry for "dual use" technology; ie, civilian and military use.


    Huawei can plan independence of U.S., and Western, tech as much as they want, but creating it, or even stealing it, isn't a rapid process.

    I reiterate; the world's semiconductor fabs are already maxed out, so they couldn't source to Huawei if they wanted to. Maybe in another year, but in the meantime, Nokia, Ericsson and Samsung seem to be doing quite well in Telecom.
    You obviously like making me repeat myself. Huawei hasn't breached any contract with TSMC. It very probably had a fair bit of capacity reserved. Due to the ban, which has nothing to do with Huawei (or TSMC for that matter), that production capacity has been dedicated to other customers. No doubt with clauses that allow TSMC to cater to Huawei's needs if the current bans are lifted. These are not yearly contracts we are talking about. Huawei's 3nm efforts were very advanced at the time the ban came into effect. There were even claims that Huawei would be TSMC's first 3nm customer. Seeing as Huawei was not only one of TSMC's biggest customers but also a very long term one, it would be logical for contracts to already be in place.

    Current constraints on supply don't mean that Huawei has no options. There have been continuous rumours of Samsung waiting in the wings to serve Huawei. 

    We will just have to wait and see. 

    SMIC and dual use is irrelevant. It is also moving to eliminate US dependence and again, I will repeat myself. I provided a link to Hubble's investment activities. Huawei already has a wafer fab under construction. There will be more and every single link in the supply and production chain that contains US origin technology is being eliminated. There is no stopping that. 
    LOL!

    What part of the PRC threatening invasion of Taiwan do you not understand? 

    Do you really think that TSMC is going to put in effort to cater to Huawei/HiSilicon under those circumstances, especially since there are plenty of Western companies that will purchase the production on those nodes?

    https://www.scmp.com/tech/tech-war/article/3133235/us-china-tech-war-taiwans-tsmc-joins-american-chip-coalition-another

    Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Co (TSMC), the world’s biggest chip foundry, has joined a new lobbying group dominated by top American chip developers and users, in a move that may make it harder for China to wean itself off a US-led global semiconductor supply chain.

    The Semiconductors in America Coalition (SIAC), which includes 65 major players along the semiconductor value chain, announced its formation on Tuesday with the immediate purpose of pushing the American government to provide subsidies for chip manufacturing on US soil.

    https://www.chipsinamerica.org/about/#members

    https://www.gizmochina.com/2021/08/16/apple-secure-majority-tsmc-3nm-over-intel/

    While TSMC is on track to bring its 3nm process technology to volume production in the second half of next year, a new report has revealed that the majority of TSMC’s 3nm production capacity has been secured by Apple.

    According to a DigiTimes report (Via HardwareTimes), the Cupertino based giant will be the major client of TSMC’s 3nm production in the 2022. The iPhone maker will be followed by AMD and NVIDIA. Unfortunately, Intel won’t be able to offer 3nm chips till 2023. Notably, this news contradicts previous reports, which stated that even Intel has secured majority of TSMC’s 3nm production capacity, and now suggests that the Apple will be its major client for the 3nm process.

    As per the latest report, TSMC, the world’s largest contract chipmaker will be unlikely to fulfill any orders for Intel till 2023. In other words, Apple will be the chipmaker’s primary customer for its most advances process technology. As of right now, TSMC’s 7nm and 5nm production capacities are reaching their limits and 3nm is set to begin mass production in the second half of 2022. With Apple being one of its first 3nm clients, iPhones and Apple’s other products like Macs could also benefit by adopting the cutting edge process.



    Ah! Now it's crystal clear that you have no idea what you are talking about and haven't read or understood what I wrote. 

    SIAC has no bearing on TSMC's business with Huawei. Seeing that the US semiconductor industry is already up the creek without a paddle, are you surprised that companies are lobbying for government to put subsidies on the table? 

    Yes, TSMC is dedicating its Huawei 3nm capacity to Apple. That is what I've already stated. Now re-read what I wrote and try to understand it.


    Given that the U.S., Taiwan, and South Korea have almost all of the fabs at 7nm and below, I find the your statement "the U.S. semiconductor industry is already up the creek without a paddle" is decidedly false. If anything, that takeaway is that the U.S. wants to bring more semiconductor fab back to the U.S. for strategic reasons, ie, the threat of PRC invasion of Taiwan, and that is exactly what is happening. 

    Countering your delusions about Huawei and TSMC is growing boring.

    So TSMC being a member of SAIC, as well as committing to building a fab in Arizona., one expected to be at 5nm, is not relevant to business with Huawei, and yet, Huawei has not seen production from TSMC in about a year, and then, the last of that being about 8 million Kirin 9000 SOC's.

    That indicates to me that TSMC is okay with the status quo of the U.S. ban on Huawei, and none expect that to change. 

    I don't need to reiterate that Apple is and has been TSMC's largest customer for years, by far, based on revenue, so one would expect that Apple would continue to have the latest TSMC nodes fully booked at the start of production. Given that Apple's entire product line, sans the Mac Pro and large screen iMac, relies on TSMC, it isn't difficult to imagine that Apple is in fact TSMC's largest customer. Huawei's loss is AMD's gain. 

    Are you still in denial about iPhone sales for 2021 of 240 to 250 million iPhones?
    edited September 19 watto_cobra
  • Reply 16 of 16
    tmaytmay Posts: 5,458member
    New link to Huawei;

    https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-09-19/huawei-s-decline-shows-why-china-will-struggle-to-dominate

    Huawei’s Decline Shows Why China Will Struggle to Dominate

    Two years ago the telecom giant was set to control global 5G, but now its goal is survival. Beijing’s belligerence is to blame.


    watto_cobra
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