And after Monday’s stock market closes, Apple will be back on top. This has happened several times already. The intense desire to take Apple down is at the root. All these over-hyped headlines are designed specifically to get clicks.
It's silly to think about 1st and 2nd place at these crazy-high valuations, but I still do wonder why Microsoft is valued that high. Windows11 and Office365 is all I see them having. I guess maybe them being more of a services company now carries more weight?
MS is more than Office and Windows. They’re banking on the enterprise. Azure for example. SQL Server, MS Cloud, a large range of developer tools, MS Teams, AI APIs.
This is precisely the kind of nonsense I’ve pointed out in two recent threads about the idiocy of the finance industry’s fascination with quarterly earnings reports.
Apple shows record growth in its quarterly report but falls short of analyst predictions made shortly before the report. Rather than simply acknowledging that the analysts were wrong, Wall Street goes into a frenzy, ignoring the actual information showing record growth despite difficult circumstances, and concludes there must be something wrong with Apple. So despite the record earnings, Apple’s stock price drops.
Now that number, based entirely on an insane, irrational reaction to the incorrect overvaluation by analysts shortly before the earnings call, is used to calculate another number, market capitalization. That new number, based on an irrational reaction is compared to Microsoft’s number, and holy shit, Apple is now worth less than Microsoft! That’s like a whole thing in a decades-old narrative! Apple versus Microsoft! Microsoft is the winner! The Wall Street analysts are now running in circles, blowing their spray-can air cannons! This is Big News! This is huge!
In a few days, of course, this little frenzied manipulation will be done and forgotten, and the analysts will be on to making their next predictions, which will, despite their track record of being wrong, be considered more important than what actually happens in reality. That’s because this is how people who don’t actually do anything of value make money.
This is precisely the kind of nonsense I’ve pointed out in two recent threads about the idiocy of the finance industry’s fascination with quarterly earnings reports.
Apple shows record growth in its quarterly report but falls short of analyst predictions made shortly before the report. Rather than simply acknowledging that the analysts were wrong, Wall Street goes into a frenzy, ignoring the actual information showing record growth despite difficult circumstances, and concludes there must be something wrong with Apple. So despite the record earnings, Apple’s stock price drops.
Now that number, based entirely on an insane, irrational reaction to the incorrect overvaluation by analysts shortly before the earnings call, is used to calculate another number, market capitalization. That new number, based on an irrational reaction is compared to Microsoft’s number, and holy shit, Apple is now worth less than Microsoft! That’s like a whole thing in a decades-old narrative! Apple versus Microsoft! Microsoft is the winner! The Wall Street analysts are now running in circles, blowing their spray-can air cannons! This is Big News! This is huge!
In a few days, of course, this little frenzied manipulation will be done and forgotten, and the analysts will be on to making their next predictions, which will, despite their track record of being wrong, be considered more important than what actually happens in reality. That’s because this is how people who don’t actually do anything of value make money.
The stock price dropped by a couple of percentage points, as a correction to the inflation from unmet expectations. That's entirely within reason, and not at all surprising. If you find it insane and irrational then I suggest you steer clear of the stock market, because you don't get it.
This is precisely the kind of nonsense I’ve pointed out in two recent threads about the idiocy of the finance industry’s fascination with quarterly earnings reports.
Apple shows record growth in its quarterly report but falls short of analyst predictions made shortly before the report. Rather than simply acknowledging that the analysts were wrong, Wall Street goes into a frenzy, ignoring the actual information showing record growth despite difficult circumstances, and concludes there must be something wrong with Apple. So despite the record earnings, Apple’s stock price drops.
Now that number, based entirely on an insane, irrational reaction to the incorrect overvaluation by analysts shortly before the earnings call, is used to calculate another number, market capitalization. That new number, based on an irrational reaction is compared to Microsoft’s number, and holy shit, Apple is now worth less than Microsoft! That’s like a whole thing in a decades-old narrative! Apple versus Microsoft! Microsoft is the winner! The Wall Street analysts are now running in circles, blowing their spray-can air cannons! This is Big News! This is huge!
In a few days, of course, this little frenzied manipulation will be done and forgotten, and the analysts will be on to making their next predictions, which will, despite their track record of being wrong, be considered more important than what actually happens in reality. That’s because this is how people who don’t actually do anything of value make money.
The stock price dropped by a couple of percentage points, as a correction to the inflation from unmet expectations. That's entirely within reason, and not at all surprising. If you find it insane and irrational then I suggest you steer clear of the stock market, because you don't get it.
That’s exactly what I just wrote. The difference is that, while it’s entirely common, I recognize that it’s not reasonable. It’s the same silliness as people getting worked up here if Apple doesn’t deliver a feature that Ming Chi Kuo predicted, rather than just recognizing that Kuo is wrong quite a lot of the time. It’s the same nonsense as the jackass TV sports reporter who sticks a microphone in the face of a happy Olympic athlete who just won Gold and asks, “are you disappointed that you didn’t also beat your own previous world record?” It’s the same nonsense as a kid who gets an obscene pile of great Christmas presents but sulks all day because the $2,000 bicycle is the wrong shade of blue.
Wall Street analysts make their predictions based on whatever they think might be relevant, but because they can’t possibly know all the internal data nor can they actually predict the future, they will rarely be precisely correct in their predictions. Their predictions exist only because people can’t be patient enough to just wait for the real data. At best, they’re educated guesses. Judging the performance of a company should be based on the actualperformance of the company. Instead, the short-term money in the market is made by hyping up the difference between reality and the consensus narrative ginned up by the analysts. Statistically, they’ll almost always be wrong, too high or too low, which means there will almost always be money to be made by hyping the difference. There’s actually an incentive for the analysts not to be correct.
So yeah, I think I get it. I just don’t accept it as reasonable.
This is precisely the kind of nonsense I’ve pointed out in two recent threads about the idiocy of the finance industry’s fascination with quarterly earnings reports.
Apple shows record growth in its quarterly report but falls short of analyst predictions made shortly before the report. Rather than simply acknowledging that the analysts were wrong, Wall Street goes into a frenzy, ignoring the actual information showing record growth despite difficult circumstances, and concludes there must be something wrong with Apple. So despite the record earnings, Apple’s stock price drops.
Now that number, based entirely on an insane, irrational reaction to the incorrect overvaluation by analysts shortly before the earnings call, is used to calculate another number, market capitalization. That new number, based on an irrational reaction is compared to Microsoft’s number, and holy shit, Apple is now worth less than Microsoft! That’s like a whole thing in a decades-old narrative! Apple versus Microsoft! Microsoft is the winner! The Wall Street analysts are now running in circles, blowing their spray-can air cannons! This is Big News! This is huge!
In a few days, of course, this little frenzied manipulation will be done and forgotten, and the analysts will be on to making their next predictions, which will, despite their track record of being wrong, be considered more important than what actually happens in reality. That’s because this is how people who don’t actually do anything of value make money.
That makes Google stock going down immediately after this quarter's record-breaking (again) results that well-exceeded what analysts were expecting even more illogical. Exceeding predictions, even handily, and the stock goes down. Missing expectations and the stock goes down.
There is no rationality to the stock market. It's driven by behind-the-scenes hands that we are not privy to seeing even if we can take advantage until we can't, and in the meantime hope luck stays with us. IMHO if you the individual stockholder are making money it's only because it serves the purposes of the ones actually controlling it. You cannot reason your way to it, and what happens is in spite of anything you do. Common stockholders can only ride the waves.
This is precisely the kind of nonsense I’ve pointed out in two recent threads about the idiocy of the finance industry’s fascination with quarterly earnings reports.
Apple shows record growth in its quarterly report but falls short of analyst predictions made shortly before the report. Rather than simply acknowledging that the analysts were wrong, Wall Street goes into a frenzy, ignoring the actual information showing record growth despite difficult circumstances, and concludes there must be something wrong with Apple. So despite the record earnings, Apple’s stock price drops.
Now that number, based entirely on an insane, irrational reaction to the incorrect overvaluation by analysts shortly before the earnings call, is used to calculate another number, market capitalization. That new number, based on an irrational reaction is compared to Microsoft’s number, and holy shit, Apple is now worth less than Microsoft! That’s like a whole thing in a decades-old narrative! Apple versus Microsoft! Microsoft is the winner! The Wall Street analysts are now running in circles, blowing their spray-can air cannons! This is Big News! This is huge!
In a few days, of course, this little frenzied manipulation will be done and forgotten, and the analysts will be on to making their next predictions, which will, despite their track record of being wrong, be considered more important than what actually happens in reality. That’s because this is how people who don’t actually do anything of value make money.
That makes Google stock going down immediately after this quarter's record-breaking (again) results that well-exceeded what analysts were expecting even more illogical. Exceeding predictions, even handily, and the stock goes down. Missing expectations and the stock goes down.
There is no rationality to the stock market. It's driven by behind-the-scenes hands that we are not privy to seeing even if we can take advantage until we can't, and in the meantime hope luck stays with us. IMHO if you the individual stockholder are making money it's only because it serves the purposes of the ones actually controlling it. You cannot reason your way to it, and what happens is in spite of anything you do. Common stockholders can only ride the waves.
This is precisely the kind of nonsense I’ve pointed out in two recent threads about the idiocy of the finance industry’s fascination with quarterly earnings reports.
Apple shows record growth in its quarterly report but falls short of analyst predictions made shortly before the report. Rather than simply acknowledging that the analysts were wrong, Wall Street goes into a frenzy, ignoring the actual information showing record growth despite difficult circumstances, and concludes there must be something wrong with Apple. So despite the record earnings, Apple’s stock price drops.
Now that number, based entirely on an insane, irrational reaction to the incorrect overvaluation by analysts shortly before the earnings call, is used to calculate another number, market capitalization. That new number, based on an irrational reaction is compared to Microsoft’s number, and holy shit, Apple is now worth less than Microsoft! That’s like a whole thing in a decades-old narrative! Apple versus Microsoft! Microsoft is the winner! The Wall Street analysts are now running in circles, blowing their spray-can air cannons! This is Big News! This is huge!
In a few days, of course, this little frenzied manipulation will be done and forgotten, and the analysts will be on to making their next predictions, which will, despite their track record of being wrong, be considered more important than what actually happens in reality. That’s because this is how people who don’t actually do anything of value make money.
That makes Google stock going down immediately after this quarter's record-breaking (again) results that well-exceeded what analysts were expecting even more illogical. Exceeding predictions, even handily, and the stock goes down. Missing expectations and the stock goes down.
There is no rationality to the stock market. It's driven by behind-the-scenes hands that we are not privy to seeing even if we can take advantage until we can't, and in the meantime hope luck stays with us. IMHO if you the individual stockholder are making money it's only because it serves the purposes of the ones actually controlling it. You cannot reason your way to it, and what happens is in spite of anything you do. Common stockholders can only ride the waves.
GOOGL did not drop after earnings.
Immediately after the earnings were announced it was reported the stock was down after-hours. I don't invest and would not have looked at stock prices since. Thanks for prompting me to look. You are correct that since then the stock has been up.
This is precisely the kind of nonsense I’ve pointed out in two recent threads about the idiocy of the finance industry’s fascination with quarterly earnings reports.
Apple shows record growth in its quarterly report but falls short of analyst predictions made shortly before the report. Rather than simply acknowledging that the analysts were wrong, Wall Street goes into a frenzy, ignoring the actual information showing record growth despite difficult circumstances, and concludes there must be something wrong with Apple. So despite the record earnings, Apple’s stock price drops.
Now that number, based entirely on an insane, irrational reaction to the incorrect overvaluation by analysts shortly before the earnings call, is used to calculate another number, market capitalization. That new number, based on an irrational reaction is compared to Microsoft’s number, and holy shit, Apple is now worth less than Microsoft! That’s like a whole thing in a decades-old narrative! Apple versus Microsoft! Microsoft is the winner! The Wall Street analysts are now running in circles, blowing their spray-can air cannons! This is Big News! This is huge!
In a few days, of course, this little frenzied manipulation will be done and forgotten, and the analysts will be on to making their next predictions, which will, despite their track record of being wrong, be considered more important than what actually happens in reality. That’s because this is how people who don’t actually do anything of value make money.
The stock price dropped by a couple of percentage points, as a correction to the inflation from unmet expectations. That's entirely within reason, and not at all surprising. If you find it insane and irrational then I suggest you steer clear of the stock market, because you don't get it.
That’s exactly what I just wrote. The difference is that, while it’s entirely common, I recognize that it’s not reasonable. It’s the same silliness as people getting worked up here if Apple doesn’t deliver a feature that Ming Chi Kuo predicted, rather than just recognizing that Kuo is wrong quite a lot of the time. It’s the same nonsense as the jackass TV sports reporter who sticks a microphone in the face of a happy Olympic athlete who just won Gold and asks, “are you disappointed that you didn’t also beat your own previous world record?” It’s the same nonsense as a kid who gets an obscene pile of great Christmas presents but sulks all day because the $2,000 bicycle is the wrong shade of blue.
Wall Street analysts make their predictions based on whatever they think might be relevant, but because they can’t possibly know all the internal data nor can they actually predict the future, they will rarely be precisely correct in their predictions. Their predictions exist only because people can’t be patient enough to just wait for the real data. At best, they’re educated guesses. Judging the performance of a company should be based on the actualperformance of the company. Instead, the short-term money in the market is made by hyping up the difference between reality and the consensus narrative ginned up by the analysts. Statistically, they’ll almost always be wrong, too high or too low, which means there will almost always be money to be made by hyping the difference. There’s actually an incentive for the analysts not to be correct.
So yeah, I think I get it. I just don’t accept it as reasonable.
So you think the stock price should be fixed during the earnings call, and then not change until the next earnings call? I don't think you understand what a publicly traded company is.
This is precisely the kind of nonsense I’ve pointed out in two recent threads about the idiocy of the finance industry’s fascination with quarterly earnings reports.
Apple shows record growth in its quarterly report but falls short of analyst predictions made shortly before the report. Rather than simply acknowledging that the analysts were wrong, Wall Street goes into a frenzy, ignoring the actual information showing record growth despite difficult circumstances, and concludes there must be something wrong with Apple. So despite the record earnings, Apple’s stock price drops.
Now that number, based entirely on an insane, irrational reaction to the incorrect overvaluation by analysts shortly before the earnings call, is used to calculate another number, market capitalization. That new number, based on an irrational reaction is compared to Microsoft’s number, and holy shit, Apple is now worth less than Microsoft! That’s like a whole thing in a decades-old narrative! Apple versus Microsoft! Microsoft is the winner! The Wall Street analysts are now running in circles, blowing their spray-can air cannons! This is Big News! This is huge!
In a few days, of course, this little frenzied manipulation will be done and forgotten, and the analysts will be on to making their next predictions, which will, despite their track record of being wrong, be considered more important than what actually happens in reality. That’s because this is how people who don’t actually do anything of value make money.
The stock price dropped by a couple of percentage points, as a correction to the inflation from unmet expectations. That's entirely within reason, and not at all surprising. If you find it insane and irrational then I suggest you steer clear of the stock market, because you don't get it.
That’s exactly what I just wrote. The difference is that, while it’s entirely common, I recognize that it’s not reasonable. It’s the same silliness as people getting worked up here if Apple doesn’t deliver a feature that Ming Chi Kuo predicted, rather than just recognizing that Kuo is wrong quite a lot of the time. It’s the same nonsense as the jackass TV sports reporter who sticks a microphone in the face of a happy Olympic athlete who just won Gold and asks, “are you disappointed that you didn’t also beat your own previous world record?” It’s the same nonsense as a kid who gets an obscene pile of great Christmas presents but sulks all day because the $2,000 bicycle is the wrong shade of blue.
Wall Street analysts make their predictions based on whatever they think might be relevant, but because they can’t possibly know all the internal data nor can they actually predict the future, they will rarely be precisely correct in their predictions. Their predictions exist only because people can’t be patient enough to just wait for the real data. At best, they’re educated guesses. Judging the performance of a company should be based on the actualperformance of the company. Instead, the short-term money in the market is made by hyping up the difference between reality and the consensus narrative ginned up by the analysts. Statistically, they’ll almost always be wrong, too high or too low, which means there will almost always be money to be made by hyping the difference. There’s actually an incentive for the analysts not to be correct.
So yeah, I think I get it. I just don’t accept it as reasonable.
So you think the stock price should be fixed during the earnings call, and then not change until the next earnings call? I don't think you understand what a publicly traded company is.
Sorry, no, that’s not what I think, but you can keep arguing with this guy if you want.
This is precisely the kind of nonsense I’ve pointed out in two recent threads about the idiocy of the finance industry’s fascination with quarterly earnings reports.
Apple shows record growth in its quarterly report but falls short of analyst predictions made shortly before the report. Rather than simply acknowledging that the analysts were wrong, Wall Street goes into a frenzy, ignoring the actual information showing record growth despite difficult circumstances, and concludes there must be something wrong with Apple. So despite the record earnings, Apple’s stock price drops.
Now that number, based entirely on an insane, irrational reaction to the incorrect overvaluation by analysts shortly before the earnings call, is used to calculate another number, market capitalization. That new number, based on an irrational reaction is compared to Microsoft’s number, and holy shit, Apple is now worth less than Microsoft! That’s like a whole thing in a decades-old narrative! Apple versus Microsoft! Microsoft is the winner! The Wall Street analysts are now running in circles, blowing their spray-can air cannons! This is Big News! This is huge!
In a few days, of course, this little frenzied manipulation will be done and forgotten, and the analysts will be on to making their next predictions, which will, despite their track record of being wrong, be considered more important than what actually happens in reality. That’s because this is how people who don’t actually do anything of value make money.
The stock price dropped by a couple of percentage points, as a correction to the inflation from unmet expectations. That's entirely within reason, and not at all surprising. If you find it insane and irrational then I suggest you steer clear of the stock market, because you don't get it.
That’s exactly what I just wrote. The difference is that, while it’s entirely common, I recognize that it’s not reasonable. It’s the same silliness as people getting worked up here if Apple doesn’t deliver a feature that Ming Chi Kuo predicted, rather than just recognizing that Kuo is wrong quite a lot of the time. It’s the same nonsense as the jackass TV sports reporter who sticks a microphone in the face of a happy Olympic athlete who just won Gold and asks, “are you disappointed that you didn’t also beat your own previous world record?” It’s the same nonsense as a kid who gets an obscene pile of great Christmas presents but sulks all day because the $2,000 bicycle is the wrong shade of blue.
Wall Street analysts make their predictions based on whatever they think might be relevant, but because they can’t possibly know all the internal data nor can they actually predict the future, they will rarely be precisely correct in their predictions. Their predictions exist only because people can’t be patient enough to just wait for the real data. At best, they’re educated guesses. Judging the performance of a company should be based on the actualperformance of the company. Instead, the short-term money in the market is made by hyping up the difference between reality and the consensus narrative ginned up by the analysts. Statistically, they’ll almost always be wrong, too high or too low, which means there will almost always be money to be made by hyping the difference. There’s actually an incentive for the analysts not to be correct.
So yeah, I think I get it. I just don’t accept it as reasonable.
So you think the stock price should be fixed during the earnings call, and then not change until the next earnings call? I don't think you understand what a publicly traded company is.
Sorry, no, that’s not what I think, but you can keep arguing with this guy if you want.
EDIT: Nevermind. I don't understand what you're talking about, but that's ok. No need to have a dance about it.
"According to Apple executives, the company lost about $6 billion in revenue because of ongoing supply constraints and chip shortages affecting industries across the globe".
This is precisely the kind of nonsense I’ve pointed out in two recent threads about the idiocy of the finance industry’s fascination with quarterly earnings reports.
Apple shows record growth in its quarterly report but falls short of analyst predictions made shortly before the report. Rather than simply acknowledging that the analysts were wrong, Wall Street goes into a frenzy, ignoring the actual information showing record growth despite difficult circumstances, and concludes there must be something wrong with Apple. So despite the record earnings, Apple’s stock price drops.
Now that number, based entirely on an insane, irrational reaction to the incorrect overvaluation by analysts shortly before the earnings call, is used to calculate another number, market capitalization. That new number, based on an irrational reaction is compared to Microsoft’s number, and holy shit, Apple is now worth less than Microsoft! That’s like a whole thing in a decades-old narrative! Apple versus Microsoft! Microsoft is the winner! The Wall Street analysts are now running in circles, blowing their spray-can air cannons! This is Big News! This is huge!
In a few days, of course, this little frenzied manipulation will be done and forgotten, and the analysts will be on to making their next predictions, which will, despite their track record of being wrong, be considered more important than what actually happens in reality. That’s because this is how people who don’t actually do anything of value make money.
The stock price dropped by a couple of percentage points, as a correction to the inflation from unmet expectations. That's entirely within reason, and not at all surprising. If you find it insane and irrational then I suggest you steer clear of the stock market, because you don't get it.
That’s exactly what I just wrote. The difference is that, while it’s entirely common, I recognize that it’s not reasonable. It’s the same silliness as people getting worked up here if Apple doesn’t deliver a feature that Ming Chi Kuo predicted, rather than just recognizing that Kuo is wrong quite a lot of the time. It’s the same nonsense as the jackass TV sports reporter who sticks a microphone in the face of a happy Olympic athlete who just won Gold and asks, “are you disappointed that you didn’t also beat your own previous world record?” It’s the same nonsense as a kid who gets an obscene pile of great Christmas presents but sulks all day because the $2,000 bicycle is the wrong shade of blue.
Wall Street analysts make their predictions based on whatever they think might be relevant, but because they can’t possibly know all the internal data nor can they actually predict the future, they will rarely be precisely correct in their predictions. Their predictions exist only because people can’t be patient enough to just wait for the real data. At best, they’re educated guesses. Judging the performance of a company should be based on the actualperformance of the company. Instead, the short-term money in the market is made by hyping up the difference between reality and the consensus narrative ginned up by the analysts. Statistically, they’ll almost always be wrong, too high or too low, which means there will almost always be money to be made by hyping the difference. There’s actually an incentive for the analysts not to be correct.
So yeah, I think I get it. I just don’t accept it as reasonable.
So you think the stock price should be fixed during the earnings call, and then not change until the next earnings call? I don't think you understand what a publicly traded company is.
Sorry, no, that’s not what I think, but you can keep arguing with this guy if you want.
EDIT: Nevermind. I don't understand what you're talking about, but that's ok. No need to have a dance about it.
I appreciate that. I'm not interested in dancing, either.
I'm saying that stock analysts would provide a much more valuable service if they just analyzed actual performance and results, without making predictions first. A sober look at actual data can help investors make good decisions. Quarterly earnings reports as a periodic check-in on progress toward long-term goals are a perfectly acceptable way to assure accountability, especially if those quarterly numbers are used serially to document trends with more than two or three data points. Quarter to quarter or year over year comparisons alone only create straight lines that can easily misrepresent what's actually happening over time.
Worse, predictions followed by comparisons of actuals to predictions is purely an exercise in bookmaking, adding volatility to benefit short-term profiteering at the expense of long-term planning and stability. Whether it's intentional manipulation or simply an artifact of a profoundly dumb way of looking at things that arose out of impatience over waiting to see the actual reports, its only utility is creating short-term market turbulence.
This is precisely the kind of nonsense I’ve pointed out in two recent threads about the idiocy of the finance industry’s fascination with quarterly earnings reports.
Apple shows record growth in its quarterly report but falls short of analyst predictions made shortly before the report. Rather than simply acknowledging that the analysts were wrong, Wall Street goes into a frenzy, ignoring the actual information showing record growth despite difficult circumstances, and concludes there must be something wrong with Apple. So despite the record earnings, Apple’s stock price drops.
Now that number, based entirely on an insane, irrational reaction to the incorrect overvaluation by analysts shortly before the earnings call, is used to calculate another number, market capitalization. That new number, based on an irrational reaction is compared to Microsoft’s number, and holy shit, Apple is now worth less than Microsoft! That’s like a whole thing in a decades-old narrative! Apple versus Microsoft! Microsoft is the winner! The Wall Street analysts are now running in circles, blowing their spray-can air cannons! This is Big News! This is huge!
In a few days, of course, this little frenzied manipulation will be done and forgotten, and the analysts will be on to making their next predictions, which will, despite their track record of being wrong, be considered more important than what actually happens in reality. That’s because this is how people who don’t actually do anything of value make money.
The stock price dropped by a couple of percentage points, as a correction to the inflation from unmet expectations. That's entirely within reason, and not at all surprising. If you find it insane and irrational then I suggest you steer clear of the stock market, because you don't get it.
That’s exactly what I just wrote. The difference is that, while it’s entirely common, I recognize that it’s not reasonable. It’s the same silliness as people getting worked up here if Apple doesn’t deliver a feature that Ming Chi Kuo predicted, rather than just recognizing that Kuo is wrong quite a lot of the time. It’s the same nonsense as the jackass TV sports reporter who sticks a microphone in the face of a happy Olympic athlete who just won Gold and asks, “are you disappointed that you didn’t also beat your own previous world record?” It’s the same nonsense as a kid who gets an obscene pile of great Christmas presents but sulks all day because the $2,000 bicycle is the wrong shade of blue.
Wall Street analysts make their predictions based on whatever they think might be relevant, but because they can’t possibly know all the internal data nor can they actually predict the future, they will rarely be precisely correct in their predictions. Their predictions exist only because people can’t be patient enough to just wait for the real data. At best, they’re educated guesses. Judging the performance of a company should be based on the actualperformance of the company. Instead, the short-term money in the market is made by hyping up the difference between reality and the consensus narrative ginned up by the analysts. Statistically, they’ll almost always be wrong, too high or too low, which means there will almost always be money to be made by hyping the difference. There’s actually an incentive for the analysts not to be correct.
So yeah, I think I get it. I just don’t accept it as reasonable.
So you think the stock price should be fixed during the earnings call, and then not change until the next earnings call? I don't think you understand what a publicly traded company is.
Sorry, no, that’s not what I think, but you can keep arguing with this guy if you want.
EDIT: Nevermind. I don't understand what you're talking about, but that's ok. No need to have a dance about it.
Worse, predictions followed by comparisons of actuals to predictions is purely an exercise in bookmaking, adding volatility to benefit short-term profiteering at the expense of long-term planning and stability. Whether it's intentional manipulation or simply an artifact of a profoundly dumb way of looking at things that arose out of impatience over waiting to see the actual reports, its only utility is creating short-term market turbulence.
As an investor you should of course be aware that "market turbulence' is how the financial companies/advisors increase their profits. That's intentional.
This is precisely the kind of nonsense I’ve pointed out in two recent threads about the idiocy of the finance industry’s fascination with quarterly earnings reports.
Apple shows record growth in its quarterly report but falls short of analyst predictions made shortly before the report. Rather than simply acknowledging that the analysts were wrong, Wall Street goes into a frenzy, ignoring the actual information showing record growth despite difficult circumstances, and concludes there must be something wrong with Apple. So despite the record earnings, Apple’s stock price drops.
Now that number, based entirely on an insane, irrational reaction to the incorrect overvaluation by analysts shortly before the earnings call, is used to calculate another number, market capitalization. That new number, based on an irrational reaction is compared to Microsoft’s number, and holy shit, Apple is now worth less than Microsoft! That’s like a whole thing in a decades-old narrative! Apple versus Microsoft! Microsoft is the winner! The Wall Street analysts are now running in circles, blowing their spray-can air cannons! This is Big News! This is huge!
In a few days, of course, this little frenzied manipulation will be done and forgotten, and the analysts will be on to making their next predictions, which will, despite their track record of being wrong, be considered more important than what actually happens in reality. That’s because this is how people who don’t actually do anything of value make money.
The stock price dropped by a couple of percentage points, as a correction to the inflation from unmet expectations. That's entirely within reason, and not at all surprising. If you find it insane and irrational then I suggest you steer clear of the stock market, because you don't get it.
That’s exactly what I just wrote. The difference is that, while it’s entirely common, I recognize that it’s not reasonable. It’s the same silliness as people getting worked up here if Apple doesn’t deliver a feature that Ming Chi Kuo predicted, rather than just recognizing that Kuo is wrong quite a lot of the time. It’s the same nonsense as the jackass TV sports reporter who sticks a microphone in the face of a happy Olympic athlete who just won Gold and asks, “are you disappointed that you didn’t also beat your own previous world record?” It’s the same nonsense as a kid who gets an obscene pile of great Christmas presents but sulks all day because the $2,000 bicycle is the wrong shade of blue.
Wall Street analysts make their predictions based on whatever they think might be relevant, but because they can’t possibly know all the internal data nor can they actually predict the future, they will rarely be precisely correct in their predictions. Their predictions exist only because people can’t be patient enough to just wait for the real data. At best, they’re educated guesses. Judging the performance of a company should be based on the actualperformance of the company. Instead, the short-term money in the market is made by hyping up the difference between reality and the consensus narrative ginned up by the analysts. Statistically, they’ll almost always be wrong, too high or too low, which means there will almost always be money to be made by hyping the difference. There’s actually an incentive for the analysts not to be correct.
So yeah, I think I get it. I just don’t accept it as reasonable.
So you think the stock price should be fixed during the earnings call, and then not change until the next earnings call? I don't think you understand what a publicly traded company is.
Sorry, no, that’s not what I think, but you can keep arguing with this guy if you want.
EDIT: Nevermind. I don't understand what you're talking about, but that's ok. No need to have a dance about it.
Worse, predictions followed by comparisons of actuals to predictions is purely an exercise in bookmaking, adding volatility to benefit short-term profiteering at the expense of long-term planning and stability. Whether it's intentional manipulation or simply an artifact of a profoundly dumb way of looking at things that arose out of impatience over waiting to see the actual reports, its only utility is creating short-term market turbulence.
As an investor you should of course be aware that "market turbulence' is how the financial companies/advisors increase their profits. That's intentional.
Yes, indeed. It’s just not in the interest of investors or the companies subjected to this behavior.
Comments
There is no rationality to the stock market. It's driven by behind-the-scenes hands that we are not privy to seeing even if we can take advantage until we can't, and in the meantime hope luck stays with us. IMHO if you the individual stockholder are making money it's only because it serves the purposes of the ones actually controlling it. You cannot reason your way to it, and what happens is in spite of anything you do. Common stockholders can only ride the waves.
Good time to be a software company
I'm saying that stock analysts would provide a much more valuable service if they just analyzed actual performance and results, without making predictions first. A sober look at actual data can help investors make good decisions. Quarterly earnings reports as a periodic check-in on progress toward long-term goals are a perfectly acceptable way to assure accountability, especially if those quarterly numbers are used serially to document trends with more than two or three data points. Quarter to quarter or year over year comparisons alone only create straight lines that can easily misrepresent what's actually happening over time.
Worse, predictions followed by comparisons of actuals to predictions is purely an exercise in bookmaking, adding volatility to benefit short-term profiteering at the expense of long-term planning and stability. Whether it's intentional manipulation or simply an artifact of a profoundly dumb way of looking at things that arose out of impatience over waiting to see the actual reports, its only utility is creating short-term market turbulence.