The concept that Americans are going to give up owning cars is as crazy as the concept that most Americans would give up on owning homes.
Apparently cars spend on average 95% of their existence parked in the driveway, so it is a not really a great investment to own a car. (Just out of interest the average use time of an electric drill is something like 15 minutes ) Maybe if a car subscription service turns out to be more economical even Americans will figure it out. I seem to remember no-one thinking not actually owning their music or books was a good idea. I am sure the subscription car idea will be slow to evolve but I am sure it will happen. 'Hey Siri - car please' By the time you are out the door it's ready to take you where you want to go. No parking involved. Sounds awesome to me.
It's bothering that "analysts" and "researchers" from these large firms seem to have no idea how long it takes to get a real, physical, car on the road.
My company works as a subcontractor for several major automotive OEMs, so I have some idea what the roadmap looks like in 2025/2026, and how far their development and test drives are. Sure, you can compare to Testa instead, that managed to get their first cars out in record time, but then it was not really their own base platform. And, for any kind of autonomous car you need huge amounts of driving experience to get anywhere close to certification (and don't even think of L5 as your first step into these waters)...
wdym it wasn't their own platform? tesla is the most vertically integrated car company. it was their own platform
Sure, a few people are going to be fine not owning a car. Most of those people already don't own a car today. Uber is a thing, taxis are a thing, buses are a thing, you can have somebody else drive you around if you want. And yes, autonomous taxis will be a thing.
But Americans at least are NOT going to give up on the concept of personal car ownership. If you own the car, it's there when you need it, you have the freedom to make last minute plan changes. And (this is really important) you can leave your stuff in it. You don't have to worry about whether you left something in the taxi. If you're going somewhere that you need more stuff than you want to carry into where you're going, you can leave the rest in the car and get it later if you need it.
The concept that Americans are going to give up owning cars is as crazy as the concept that most Americans would give up on owning homes.
You are looking at it totally wrong. Of course people will not want totally give up their freedom of having their own vehicle to take certain trips. But look at all of the wasted time that is spent behind the wheel of a car driving back and forth to work or running errands. Imagine if you could just pay a monthly fee and a self driving vehicle would show up at your door when you want it and bring you into work, maybe stop off and pick up a few items at a store. You could spend that time doing things you want instead of watching the taillights of the car in front of you. Most personal vehicles sit unused over 90% of the time. And people typically pay $300 to $700/month on car payments for an asset that is losing value every day. It will not take over all vehicle use, but can replace the mundane everyday commutes.
It's bothering that "analysts" and "researchers" from these large firms seem to have no idea how long it takes to get a real, physical, car on the road.
My company works as a subcontractor for several major automotive OEMs, so I have some idea what the roadmap looks like in 2025/2026, and how far their development and test drives are. Sure, you can compare to Testa instead, that managed to get their first cars out in record time, but then it was not really their own base platform. And, for any kind of autonomous car you need huge amounts of driving experience to get anywhere close to certification (and don't even think of L5 as your first step into these waters)...
wdym it wasn't their own platform? tesla is the most vertically integrated car company. it was their own platform.
The Roadster was built on a Lotus chassi. The Model S was released 3 years later, but in very small quantities.
Sure, a few people are going to be fine not owning a car. Most of those people already don't own a car today. Uber is a thing, taxis are a thing, buses are a thing, you can have somebody else drive you around if you want. And yes, autonomous taxis will be a thing.
But Americans at least are NOT going to give up on the concept of personal car ownership. If you own the car, it's there when you need it, you have the freedom to make last minute plan changes. And (this is really important) you can leave your stuff in it. You don't have to worry about whether you left something in the taxi. If you're going somewhere that you need more stuff than you want to carry into where you're going, you can leave the rest in the car and get it later if you need it.
The concept that Americans are going to give up owning cars is as crazy as the concept that most Americans would give up on owning homes.
You are looking at it totally wrong. Of course people will not want totally give up their freedom of having their own vehicle to take certain trips. But look at all of the wasted time that is spent behind the wheel of a car driving back and forth to work or running errands. Imagine if you could just pay a monthly fee and a self driving vehicle would show up at your door when you want it and bring you into work, maybe stop off and pick up a few items at a store. You could spend that time doing things you want instead of watching the taillights of the car in front of you. Most personal vehicles sit unused over 90% of the time. And people typically pay $300 to $700/month on car payments for an asset that is losing value every day. It will not take over all vehicle use, but can replace the mundane everyday commutes.
What's totally wrong? That Americans aren't going to want to trade car ownership for a monthly fee?
I'm not buying it. Keep in mind what happens with car payments: You pay them for a while and then stop, because the car is then paid off. Your car payment becomes $0/month. Sure, some people then get back on the treadmill with a new car, but most don't, the average age of a car in the US is ovr 12 years.
And everything you describe can happen with a car that you DO own. There's no reason we can't have a future where the car sitting in your driveway or garage has self-driving capability - or rather no reason other than car companies' rent-seeking behavior. And I suspect that if car companies do decide to go that route we'll see the emergence of new car companies that will sell you a self-driving car, and a decline of the car companies that take the rent-seeking route.
And if you're suggesting that people will own a non-self-driving car AND pay a monthly fee for a self-driving car service? LOL, I don't think so.
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yes it will be significantly cheaper. watch the first ten minutes of this https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwjBl7vpqKr0AhXEhf0HHQbKClsQwqsBegQIAxAB&url=https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HKjmLQzKx28&usg=AOvVaw1f1er2BTjV2ysZHXphJSaN
wdym it wasn't their own platform? tesla is the most vertically integrated car company. it was their own platform