Intel is not "in peril" in any sense. Quite the contrary, Intel is #1 by a mile. AMD is #2 even if only because being forced to share TSMC with Apple, Qualcomm, MediaTek and Nvidia means that they can't come close to matching Intel's volume. (AMD is FINALLY shifting manufacture of their low end chips to Samsung later this year.) Apple is a distant #3. ARM CPU makers like Qualcomm, MediaTek and Samsung are going to be held back by the limitations of Windows on ARM (though there is some potential with Chrome OS ARM, which works a lot better). Indeed, now that Intel is re-entering the discrete GPU market, they are going to sell more chips in 2022 without Apple than they ever did with them.
Hello Intel employee.
I worked for Nokia around 2008/9. At the time, they were selling hundreds of millions of smartphones a year, outselling Apple by an order of magnitude. Comfortably the number #1. But the writing was on the wall. Everyone internally knew it.
I doubt Intel will ever crash and burn like Nokia but it's only a matter of time until Microsoft crack ARM on Windows. Once that happens, no-one is going to pay Intel's inflated prices for CPUs.
Then Intel will simply get a license and start making ARM based processors. Easy-Peasy. No problem.
Intel's deal with TSMC is only short-term: 2022-2024. In 2025, Intel will start producing chips on their 5nm process and will no longer need TSMC to compete with AMD. (Despite what Apple fans believe, Intel's competition is AMD, not Apple.) Yes, the primary benefit of Intel buying capacity from TSMC is that it will further exacerbate AMD's supply problems. Which leaves poor AMD between a rock and a hard place: capacity problems at TSMC and yield problems at the only viable alternative Samsung.
If Intel hold to past behavior they will need TSMC well past 2025: Intel's 7nm is Broken, Company Announces Delay Until 2022, 2023; Intel's first 10nm desktop CPUs are still a year away…oh and 7nm is delayed (again). Intel is great at making road maps but really lousy at following them schedule wide
My experience in tech is that the top 5% do -- or lead -- or inspire 95% of the work.
Sounds like this guy is part of the 5%. In a tech company they are priceless -- part of what Steve Jobs described as his "A Team". They're less attracted to money & power than they are to doing and creating great things.
His work at Apple was done. He had done those great things. Now Intel is stepping up its game to do (hopefully) great things. So he's going where the action is.
Here's Steve talking the "A Players" he built his company around.
Intel is not "in peril" in any sense. Quite the contrary, Intel is #1 by a mile. AMD is #2 even if only because being forced to share TSMC with Apple, Qualcomm, MediaTek and Nvidia means that they can't come close to matching Intel's volume. (AMD is FINALLY shifting manufacture of their low end chips to Samsung later this year.) Apple is a distant #3. ARM CPU makers like Qualcomm, MediaTek and Samsung are going to be held back by the limitations of Windows on ARM (though there is some potential with Chrome OS ARM, which works a lot better). Indeed, now that Intel is re-entering the discrete GPU market, they are going to sell more chips in 2022 without Apple than they ever did with them.
Hello Intel employee.
I worked for Nokia around 2008/9. At the time, they were selling hundreds of millions of smartphones a year, outselling Apple by an order of magnitude. Comfortably the number #1. But the writing was on the wall. Everyone internally knew it.
I doubt Intel will ever crash and burn like Nokia but it's only a matter of time until Microsoft crack ARM on Windows. Once that happens, no-one is going to pay Intel's inflated prices for CPUs.
Then Intel will simply get a license and start making ARM based processors. Easy-Peasy. No problem.
It is not as easy as you make it out to be. Huawei's Kirin SoCs in the initial 3-4 years were not as powerful/efficient as even Qualcomm's SoCs (forget about catching up with Apple). They were behind Qualcomm in both raw CPU/GPU power and efficiency (performance/watt) and had heating issues. They eventually improved and nearly caught up with Qualcomm about 3 years ago and then disaster stuck them in the form of Trump. Mediatek/Samsung are others who have been behind Qualcomm in power & efficiency in their mobile SoCs for most of the years despite being in the competition for many years. And we are still talking about 2nd best mobile SoC maker (Qualcomm), with Apple being ahead for many years. Intel will need at least 3-4 years to get ARM SoCs which are competitive with even Qualcomm, let alone Apple.
Intel is not "in peril" in any sense. Quite the contrary, Intel is #1 by a mile. AMD is #2 even if only because being forced to share TSMC with Apple, Qualcomm, MediaTek and Nvidia means that they can't come close to matching Intel's volume. (AMD is FINALLY shifting manufacture of their low end chips to Samsung later this year.) Apple is a distant #3. ARM CPU makers like Qualcomm, MediaTek and Samsung are going to be held back by the limitations of Windows on ARM (though there is some potential with Chrome OS ARM, which works a lot better). Indeed, now that Intel is re-entering the discrete GPU market, they are going to sell more chips in 2022 without Apple than they ever did with them.
Hello Intel employee.
I worked for Nokia around 2008/9. At the time, they were selling hundreds of millions of smartphones a year, outselling Apple by an order of magnitude. Comfortably the number #1. But the writing was on the wall. Everyone internally knew it.
I doubt Intel will ever crash and burn like Nokia but it's only a matter of time until Microsoft crack ARM on Windows. Once that happens, no-one is going to pay Intel's inflated prices for CPUs.
Then Intel will simply get a license and start making ARM based processors. Easy-Peasy. No problem.
Big problem - the majority of code for PC desktops is X86. Without a good translator (rather than emulator) Intel will have the same problem Microsoft had with Windows on ARM did - little adoption. PC user like to hold on to their machines until way past their use by date (many times due ironically to cost). Why do you think there are still a good number of ATMs running Windows XP? Apple can force its users on to ARM - Intel cannot without some sort of software help (a hardware option would defeat the whole idea of going to ARM).
Intel is not "in peril" in any sense. Quite the contrary, Intel is #1 by a mile. AMD is #2 even if only because being forced to share TSMC with Apple, Qualcomm, MediaTek and Nvidia means that they can't come close to matching Intel's volume. (AMD is FINALLY shifting manufacture of their low end chips to Samsung later this year.) Apple is a distant #3. ARM CPU makers like Qualcomm, MediaTek and Samsung are going to be held back by the limitations of Windows on ARM (though there is some potential with Chrome OS ARM, which works a lot better). Indeed, now that Intel is re-entering the discrete GPU market, they are going to sell more chips in 2022 without Apple than they ever did with them.
Hello Intel employee.
I worked for Nokia around 2008/9. At the time, they were selling hundreds of millions of smartphones a year, outselling Apple by an order of magnitude. Comfortably the number #1. But the writing was on the wall. Everyone internally knew it.
I doubt Intel will ever crash and burn like Nokia but it's only a matter of time until Microsoft crack ARM on Windows. Once that happens, no-one is going to pay Intel's inflated prices for CPUs.
Then Intel will simply get a license and start making ARM based processors. Easy-Peasy. No problem.
Big problem - the majority of code for PC desktops is X86. Without a good translator (rather than emulator) Intel will have the same problem Microsoft had with Windows on ARM did - little adoption. PC user like to hold on to their machines until way past their use by date (many times due ironically to cost). Why do you think there are still a good number of ATMs running Windows XP? Apple can force its users on to ARM - Intel cannot without some sort of software help (a hardware option would defeat the whole idea of going to ARM).
I think you missed to read the context of George's response - @xbit mentioned that Microsoft will take care of getting windows fully ready for ARM processors eventually (say in 2-3 years, not explicitly mentioned, but implied). George's response should be read in that context. The question of translator/emulator does not arise in that scenario.
Intel is not "in peril" in any sense. Quite the contrary, Intel is #1 by a mile. AMD is #2 even if only because being forced to share TSMC with Apple, Qualcomm, MediaTek and Nvidia means that they can't come close to matching Intel's volume. (AMD is FINALLY shifting manufacture of their low end chips to Samsung later this year.) Apple is a distant #3. ARM CPU makers like Qualcomm, MediaTek and Samsung are going to be held back by the limitations of Windows on ARM (though there is some potential with Chrome OS ARM, which works a lot better). Indeed, now that Intel is re-entering the discrete GPU market, they are going to sell more chips in 2022 without Apple than they ever did with them.
Hello Intel employee.
I worked for Nokia around 2008/9. At the time, they were selling hundreds of millions of smartphones a year, outselling Apple by an order of magnitude. Comfortably the number #1. But the writing was on the wall. Everyone internally knew it.
I doubt Intel will ever crash and burn like Nokia but it's only a matter of time until Microsoft crack ARM on Windows. Once that happens, no-one is going to pay Intel's inflated prices for CPUs.
Then Intel will simply get a license and start making ARM based processors. Easy-Peasy. No problem.
Big problem - the majority of code for PC desktops is X86. Without a good translator (rather than emulator) Intel will have the same problem Microsoft had with Windows on ARM did - little adoption. PC user like to hold on to their machines until way past their use by date (many times due ironically to cost). Why do you think there are still a good number of ATMs running Windows XP? Apple can force its users on to ARM - Intel cannot without some sort of software help (a hardware option would defeat the whole idea of going to ARM).
I think you missed to read the context of George's response - @xbit mentioned that Microsoft will take care of getting windows fully ready for ARM processors eventually (say in 2-3 years, not explicitly mentioned, but implied). George's response should be read in that context. The question of translator/emulator does not arise in that scenario.
Not that easy for Microsoft. There are hundreds or thousands accessories that were designed to work with Microsoft Windows. They will become obsolete with ARM based Windows OS.
Intel is not "in peril" in any sense. Quite the contrary, Intel is #1 by a mile. AMD is #2 even if only because being forced to share TSMC with Apple, Qualcomm, MediaTek and Nvidia means that they can't come close to matching Intel's volume. (AMD is FINALLY shifting manufacture of their low end chips to Samsung later this year.) Apple is a distant #3. ARM CPU makers like Qualcomm, MediaTek and Samsung are going to be held back by the limitations of Windows on ARM (though there is some potential with Chrome OS ARM, which works a lot better). Indeed, now that Intel is re-entering the discrete GPU market, they are going to sell more chips in 2022 without Apple than they ever did with them.
Hello Intel employee.
I worked for Nokia around 2008/9. At the time, they were selling hundreds of millions of smartphones a year, outselling Apple by an order of magnitude. Comfortably the number #1. But the writing was on the wall. Everyone internally knew it.
I doubt Intel will ever crash and burn like Nokia but it's only a matter of time until Microsoft crack ARM on Windows. Once that happens, no-one is going to pay Intel's inflated prices for CPUs.
Then Intel will simply get a license and start making ARM based processors. Easy-Peasy. No problem.
It is not as easy as you make it out to be. Huawei's Kirin SoCs in the initial 3-4 years were not as powerful/efficient as even Qualcomm's SoCs (forget about catching up with Apple). They were behind Qualcomm in both raw CPU/GPU power and efficiency (performance/watt) and had heating issues. They eventually improved and nearly caught up with Qualcomm about 3 years ago and then disaster stuck them in the form of Trump. Mediatek/Samsung are others who have been behind Qualcomm in power & efficiency in their mobile SoCs for most of the years despite being in the competition for many years. And we are still talking about 2nd best mobile SoC maker (Qualcomm), with Apple being ahead for many years. Intel will need at least 3-4 years to get ARM SoCs which are competitive with even Qualcomm, let alone Apple.
Good points! But I was responding to the implication that Intel was locked into x86 and locked out of ARM processors.
Intel is not "in peril" in any sense. Quite the contrary, Intel is #1 by a mile. AMD is #2 even if only because being forced to share TSMC with Apple, Qualcomm, MediaTek and Nvidia means that they can't come close to matching Intel's volume. (AMD is FINALLY shifting manufacture of their low end chips to Samsung later this year.) Apple is a distant #3. ARM CPU makers like Qualcomm, MediaTek and Samsung are going to be held back by the limitations of Windows on ARM (though there is some potential with Chrome OS ARM, which works a lot better). Indeed, now that Intel is re-entering the discrete GPU market, they are going to sell more chips in 2022 without Apple than they ever did with them.
Hello Intel employee.
I worked for Nokia around 2008/9. At the time, they were selling hundreds of millions of smartphones a year, outselling Apple by an order of magnitude. Comfortably the number #1. But the writing was on the wall. Everyone internally knew it.
I doubt Intel will ever crash and burn like Nokia but it's only a matter of time until Microsoft crack ARM on Windows. Once that happens, no-one is going to pay Intel's inflated prices for CPUs.
Then Intel will simply get a license and start making ARM based processors. Easy-Peasy. No problem.
Big problem - the majority of code for PC desktops is X86. Without a good translator (rather than emulator) Intel will have the same problem Microsoft had with Windows on ARM did - little adoption. PC user like to hold on to their machines until way past their use by date (many times due ironically to cost). Why do you think there are still a good number of ATMs running Windows XP? Apple can force its users on to ARM - Intel cannot without some sort of software help (a hardware option would defeat the whole idea of going to ARM).
I think you missed to read the context of George's response - @xbit mentioned that Microsoft will take care of getting windows fully ready for ARM processors eventually (say in 2-3 years, not explicitly mentioned, but implied). George's response should be read in that context. The question of translator/emulator does not arise in that scenario.
Not that easy for Microsoft. There are hundreds or thousands accessories that were designed to work with Microsoft Windows. They will become obsolete with ARM based Windows OS.
For Microsoft its mostly a marketing issue: Why upgrade/enhance Windows to run under ARM if there are no PCs with ARM processors? But, when they do, they'll need to make sure that its API enables backwards compatibility. The problem will come from those applications that access the hardware directly instead of through the OS.
Intel is not "in peril" in any sense. Quite the contrary, Intel is #1 by a mile. AMD is #2 even if only because being forced to share TSMC with Apple, Qualcomm, MediaTek and Nvidia means that they can't come close to matching Intel's volume. (AMD is FINALLY shifting manufacture of their low end chips to Samsung later this year.) Apple is a distant #3. ARM CPU makers like Qualcomm, MediaTek and Samsung are going to be held back by the limitations of Windows on ARM (though there is some potential with Chrome OS ARM, which works a lot better). Indeed, now that Intel is re-entering the discrete GPU market, they are going to sell more chips in 2022 without Apple than they ever did with them.
Hello Intel employee.
I worked for Nokia around 2008/9. At the time, they were selling hundreds of millions of smartphones a year, outselling Apple by an order of magnitude. Comfortably the number #1. But the writing was on the wall. Everyone internally knew it.
I doubt Intel will ever crash and burn like Nokia but it's only a matter of time until Microsoft crack ARM on Windows. Once that happens, no-one is going to pay Intel's inflated prices for CPUs.
Then Intel will simply get a license and start making ARM based processors. Easy-Peasy. No problem.
Big problem - the majority of code for PC desktops is X86. Without a good translator (rather than emulator) Intel will have the same problem Microsoft had with Windows on ARM did - little adoption. PC user like to hold on to their machines until way past their use by date (many times due ironically to cost). Why do you think there are still a good number of ATMs running Windows XP? Apple can force its users on to ARM - Intel cannot without some sort of software help (a hardware option would defeat the whole idea of going to ARM).
I think you missed to read the context of George's response - @xbit mentioned that Microsoft will take care of getting windows fully ready for ARM processors eventually (say in 2-3 years, not explicitly mentioned, but implied). George's response should be read in that context. The question of translator/emulator does not arise in that scenario.
Not that easy for Microsoft. There are hundreds or thousands accessories that were designed to work with Microsoft Windows. They will become obsolete with ARM based Windows OS.
For Microsoft its mostly a marketing issue: Why upgrade/enhance Windows to run under ARM if there are no PCs with ARM processors? But, when they do, they'll need to make sure that its API enables backwards compatibility. The problem will come from those applications that access the hardware directly instead of through the OS.
Microsoft is experiencing higher and higher pressure from Google Chrome OS.
Intel is not "in peril" in any sense. Quite the contrary, Intel is #1 by a mile. AMD is #2 even if only because being forced to share TSMC with Apple, Qualcomm, MediaTek and Nvidia means that they can't come close to matching Intel's volume. (AMD is FINALLY shifting manufacture of their low end chips to Samsung later this year.) Apple is a distant #3. ARM CPU makers like Qualcomm, MediaTek and Samsung are going to be held back by the limitations of Windows on ARM (though there is some potential with Chrome OS ARM, which works a lot better). Indeed, now that Intel is re-entering the discrete GPU market, they are going to sell more chips in 2022 without Apple than they ever did with them.
Hello Intel employee.
I worked for Nokia around 2008/9. At the time, they were selling hundreds of millions of smartphones a year, outselling Apple by an order of magnitude. Comfortably the number #1. But the writing was on the wall. Everyone internally knew it.
I doubt Intel will ever crash and burn like Nokia but it's only a matter of time until Microsoft crack ARM on Windows. Once that happens, no-one is going to pay Intel's inflated prices for CPUs.
Then Intel will simply get a license and start making ARM based processors. Easy-Peasy. No problem.
It is not as easy as you make it out to be. Huawei's Kirin SoCs in the initial 3-4 years were not as powerful/efficient as even Qualcomm's SoCs (forget about catching up with Apple). They were behind Qualcomm in both raw CPU/GPU power and efficiency (performance/watt) and had heating issues. They eventually improved and nearly caught up with Qualcomm about 3 years ago and then disaster stuck them in the form of Trump. Mediatek/Samsung are others who have been behind Qualcomm in power & efficiency in their mobile SoCs for most of the years despite being in the competition for many years. And we are still talking about 2nd best mobile SoC maker (Qualcomm), with Apple being ahead for many years. Intel will need at least 3-4 years to get ARM SoCs which are competitive with even Qualcomm, let alone Apple.
Good points! But I was responding to the implication that Intel was locked into x86 and locked out of ARM processors.
Intel like Microsoft will work really hard to beat everyone by channeling the profits of someone else's product into their own pockets but once they're there they become complacent and lose traction. Apple since SJ return has not been complacent and came up with their own ideas, and that's what makes it awesome!
It's worth remembering that Apple has already gone through what could accurately be described as the single greatest personnel loss in corporate history when Steve Jobs died. Ten years later, it's at the pinnacle of success and continuing to grow. Interestingly, when Steve was forced out of Apple, the company very nearly didn't survive that departure. But this time, knowing he was terminally ill, he had the chance to plan for the running of Apple after his death, and it would be hard to argue with the results that plan produced.
SO... if Cook was able to navigate the death of Steve, I doubt the departure of Wilcox will present any issue for Apple. If I had to guess--and this is strictly a guess--I'd say that Wilcox probably felt that what he had come to Apple to do was now mission accomplished. The transition to M series processors has been an incredible success, the M series chips are likely planned for years to come, and the thing Apple couldn't offer him, that Intel could, was an immediate "next big challenge." People at the top of their game often thrive on that, it's way more important than money, especially when you already earn a boatload, which I'm sure he did at Apple.
Intel is not "in peril" in any sense. Quite the contrary, Intel is #1 by a mile. AMD is #2 even if only because being forced to share TSMC with Apple, Qualcomm, MediaTek and Nvidia means that they can't come close to matching Intel's volume. (AMD is FINALLY shifting manufacture of their low end chips to Samsung later this year.) Apple is a distant #3. ARM CPU makers like Qualcomm, MediaTek and Samsung are going to be held back by the limitations of Windows on ARM (though there is some potential with Chrome OS ARM, which works a lot better). Indeed, now that Intel is re-entering the discrete GPU market, they are going to sell more chips in 2022 without Apple than they ever did with them.
Hello Intel employee.
I worked for Nokia around 2008/9. At the time, they were selling hundreds of millions of smartphones a year, outselling Apple by an order of magnitude. Comfortably the number #1. But the writing was on the wall. Everyone internally knew it.
I doubt Intel will ever crash and burn like Nokia but it's only a matter of time until Microsoft crack ARM on Windows. Once that happens, no-one is going to pay Intel's inflated prices for CPUs.
Then Intel will simply get a license and start making ARM based processors. Easy-Peasy. No problem.
Big problem - the majority of code for PC desktops is X86. Without a good translator (rather than emulator) Intel will have the same problem Microsoft had with Windows on ARM did - little adoption. PC user like to hold on to their machines until way past their use by date (many times due ironically to cost). Why do you think there are still a good number of ATMs running Windows XP? Apple can force its users on to ARM - Intel cannot without some sort of software help (a hardware option would defeat the whole idea of going to ARM).
I think you missed to read the context of George's response - @xbit mentioned that Microsoft will take care of getting windows fully ready for ARM processors eventually (say in 2-3 years, not explicitly mentioned, but implied). George's response should be read in that context. The question of translator/emulator does not arise in that scenario.
Not that easy for Microsoft. There are hundreds or thousands accessories that were designed to work with Microsoft Windows. They will become obsolete with ARM based Windows OS.
For Microsoft its mostly a marketing issue: Why upgrade/enhance Windows to run under ARM if there are no PCs with ARM processors? But, when they do, they'll need to make sure that its API enables backwards compatibility. The problem will come from those applications that access the hardware directly instead of through the OS.
Microsoft is experiencing higher and higher pressure from Google Chrome OS.
Now that Intel claims that the new i9 is faster than the M1 it will be interesting, how Apple competes in the future. Especially when Intel gains access to the 5nm TSMC manufacturing process that Apple currently uses. So we will see how much of Apple Silicon speed is due to its design and how much is due to the manufacturing process...
Yeah…14 cores using several times the power of apples 10 cores.
Let’s see what happens when apple brings out a system with two M1 max chips.
Nope, from the benchmark Intel used the i9 was also competitive regarding power usage and this chip is using 10nm technology.
Congrats intel, the marketing slide worked. I think that little arrow on the m1max power performance curve was especially clever.
Hopefully this will encourage apple to bring the hammer down sooner rather than later.
Competition is a good thing. I sure wish Apple, Intel and other chip makers were competing to build fabs all around the country and around the planet. Having everyone compete for the same fab space at one company in Taiwan is extremely poor long term planning considering China's latest moves.
Competition is a good thing. I sure wish Apple, Intel and other chip makers were competing to build fabs all around the country and around the planet. Having everyone compete for the same fab space at one company in Taiwan is extremely poor long term planning considering China's latest moves.
China has no intention of shutting down either TSMC or Taiwan -- unless we force them to. But that won't happen.
Competition is a good thing. I sure wish Apple, Intel and other chip makers were competing to build fabs all around the country and around the planet. Having everyone compete for the same fab space at one company in Taiwan is extremely poor long term planning considering China's latest moves.
China has no intention of shutting down either TSMC or Taiwan -- unless we force them to. But that won't happen.
Unfortunately (or fortunately?) this is Trump's grand plan of which Pompeo is the executor. China is very worried about 2024.
Competition is a good thing. I sure wish Apple, Intel and other chip makers were competing to build fabs all around the country and around the planet. Having everyone compete for the same fab space at one company in Taiwan is extremely poor long term planning considering China's latest moves.
China has no intention of shutting down either TSMC or Taiwan -- unless we force them to. But that won't happen.
Unfortunately (or fortunately?) this is Trump's grand plan of which Pompeo is the executor. China is very worried about 2024.
China will have to get in line to worry about 2024 -- there's a whole world that feels the same -- well, maybe not Russia.
Meanwhile, Blinken is picking up where Pompeo left off. It's so embarrassing.
Comments
Then Intel will simply get a license and start making ARM based processors. Easy-Peasy. No problem.
Good points!
But I was responding to the implication that Intel was locked into x86 and locked out of ARM processors.
For Microsoft its mostly a marketing issue: Why upgrade/enhance Windows to run under ARM if there are no PCs with ARM processors? But, when they do, they'll need to make sure that its API enables backwards compatibility. The problem will come from those applications that access the hardware directly instead of through the OS.
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27285700&p=2
AAPL stock went up 38% since then...
SO... if Cook was able to navigate the death of Steve, I doubt the departure of Wilcox will present any issue for Apple. If I had to guess--and this is strictly a guess--I'd say that Wilcox probably felt that what he had come to Apple to do was now mission accomplished. The transition to M series processors has been an incredible success, the M series chips are likely planned for years to come, and the thing Apple couldn't offer him, that Intel could, was an immediate "next big challenge." People at the top of their game often thrive on that, it's way more important than money, especially when you already earn a boatload, which I'm sure he did at Apple.
China has no intention of shutting down either TSMC or Taiwan -- unless we force them to. But that won't happen.