Which analysts were right -- or wrong -- about Apple's holiday quarter earnings?

Posted:
in AAPL Investors
Apple reported blockbuster Q1 2022 earnings results that shattered records and expectations. Here's what analysts predicted before earnings -- and what they thought about the actual performance.

Apple logo on building. Credit: Laurenz Heymann/Unsplash
Apple logo on building. Credit: Laurenz Heymann/Unsplash


On Thursday, Apple reported its December quarter fiscal performance, which broke records across its hardware and services portfolio.

In total, Apple reported revenue of $123.9 billion, earnings-per-share of $2.10, and company-level gross margins of 43.8%.

Before the earnings report Thursday, Wall Street's consensus was that Apple would rake in $118.3 billion in revenue. Wall Street also predicted gross margins of 40.5% and earnings-per-share of $1.89.

Apple set records across its product category. The company's iPhone, Mac, Services, and Wearables, Home, and Accessories all set revenue records. The company also said it now has more than 1.8 billion active devices and a total of 785 million paid subscriptions.

Here's what analysts predicted prior to earnings, and what they thought after the fact.

Katy Huberty, Morgan Stanley

Morgan Stanley's Katy Huberty got close to Apple's actual numbers with a forecast that the company would report revenue of $122.3 billion, gross margins of 41.9%, and EPS of $1.97.

In a note to investors after earnings, Huberty called Q1 2022 "one of the cleanest quarters in recent memory." She said the strong iPhone demand, combined with solid Services and Mac growth, reiterated the value of Apple's ecosystem and its growing user base.

The analyst also upped her 12-month Apple price target to $210 from $200 after the earnings results.

Krish Sankar, Cowen

Krish Sankar, an analyst at Cowen, was off by about $4 billion. He predicted that Apple would report revenue of $119 billion, gross margins of 41.5%, and earnings-per-share of $1.90.

The analyst said the December quarter results were solid, and iPhone shipments were better than expected because of ongoing supply constraints. With Apple providing the March quarter color it did, Sankar believes that the company can grow mid-single digits year-over-year going forward.

Sankar raised his 12-month Apple price target to $200 from $180.

Daniel Ives, Wedbush

Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives did not provide an updated forecast ahead of Apple's Q1 2022 earnings. However, he did say that he expected the company to beat Wall Street's consensus of $118.3 billion and earnings-per-share of $1.88.

After the fact, Ives likened Apple's fiscal performance in the December quarter to a "Rocky Balboa-like" feat. That's because of Wall Street fears about the ongoing supply chain issues and concerns about Apple's growth stagnating. Ives says that Apple's growth story is "plowing straight ahead," particularly with potential supply chain improvements on the horizon.

Ives maintains his Outperform rating for Apple and 12-month price target of $200.

Rod Hall, Goldman Sachs

Goldman Sachs analyst Rod Hall, generally an Apple bear, was off on his estimates. He estimated Apple Q1 2022 revenues of $118.6 billion, gross margins of 42%, and earnings-per-share of $1.91.

Heading into the Q1 2022 earnings call, Hall acknowledged that Apple likely executed "better than plan" against supply constraints. He was right in that regard since Apple's iPhone revenue hit an all-time high in the December quarter despite chip shortages.

The analyst maintains his 12-month Apple price target of $142.

Samik Chatterjee, JP Morgan

Samik Chatterjee of JP Morgan expected Apple to report total revenues of $118.7 billion and earnings-per-share of $1.94. His estimates were about $5 billion off the mark regarding revenue.

He accurately predicted that the company would post revenues above Wall Street consensus. Additionally, in a note post-earnings, Chatterjee said that Apple broke the jinx surrounding its share price decreasing after earnings results. That's likely because of the more robust March quarter growth guidance.

The analyst maintains his 12-month Apple price target of $210.

Harsh Kumar, Piper Sandler

Piper Sandler analyst Harsh Kumar estimated that Apple's revenue would clock in at $115.8 billion in the holiday quarter. It isn't clear if that number was properly updated since it was well below consensus.

Going forward, Kumar is raising his estimates as far as future Apple growth. He said the company's installed base, potential hardware growth, and rumored new features in the auto industry and healthcare could drive the company's growth to new heights in the future.

The analyst maintains his 12-month Apple price target of $200.

Read on AppleInsider

Comments

  • Reply 1 of 7
    geekmeegeekmee Posts: 560member
    As if this is gonna change my opinion of analysts. 
    All it really proves, is a broken clock is right twice a day!
  • Reply 2 of 7
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 33,252member
    Well, I think it’s pretty good to get within a few percent of actual sales and profits.
  • Reply 3 of 7
    Any investor who invests using advice from analysts deserves to lose all his/ her money….
  • Reply 4 of 7
    wood1208wood1208 Posts: 2,735member
    Except top 3, rest including 100s of others on wall-street are wrong. So, please shut up and wait until earning comes out and open your mouth so you are not wrong all the time.
  • Reply 5 of 7
    crowleycrowley Posts: 10,143member
    wood1208 said:
    Except top 3, rest including 100s of others on wall-street are wrong. So, please shut up and wait until earning comes out and open your mouth so you are not wrong all the time.
    You realise it's their job, right?
  • Reply 6 of 7
    It’s astounding that any bearish analysts on the AAPL beat can be found at all. $142? ROTFLMMFAO 

    If it weren’t for the chronic jitters among investors over inflation and overpriced stocks, we would see AAPL at $200 already with even higher prices to come. This company is on a roll, it’s executing brilliantly, its quarterly results regularly defy whatever investors are fretting about in the moment, and it continues to return profits to shareholders through buybacks and to a lesser extent its dividend, which bu the way is due for another upward adjustment in March. That’s all on top of the expected rollout of AR/VR products in the next year or two, followed by some sort of automotive product thereafter.

    Here’s chapter 2 of my ongoing series rhat I have decided to title, “Gloating over hysterically awful Apple takes that didn’t age well at all”. It’s that time a notoriously bearish Apple analyst got canned for his embarrassing train of sh*tty forecasts. It’s from six years and a month ago. In late 2015 AAPlL was around $24 and change a share. Since then AAPL has increased roughly 7x based on Friday’s closing price.

    https://appleinsider.com/articles/15/12/28/berenberg-fires-analyst-infamous-for-doom-and-gloom-apple-forecasts

    ”In his last Apple stock forecast, from March [2015], Ahmad raised his target to $85, but claimed that the company was "over-earning" and "over-loved," and that its stock would soon be "over-and-out."”

    Adnaan Ahmad, meet Michael Dell. Michael, Adnaan. If your dunce caps are fitting a little
    tightly just adjust the strap in the back.
    edited January 29
  • Reply 7 of 7
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 33,252member
    It’s astounding that any bearish analysts on the AAPL beat can be found at all. $142? ROTFLMMFAO 

    If it weren’t for the chronic jitters among investors over inflation and overpriced stocks, we would see AAPL at $200 already with even higher prices to come. This company is on a roll, it’s executing brilliantly, its quarterly results regularly defy whatever investors are fretting about in the moment, and it continues to return profits to shareholders through buybacks and to a lesser extent its dividend, which bu the way is due for another upward adjustment in March. That’s all on top of the expected rollout of AR/VR products in the next year or two, followed by some sort of automotive product thereafter.

    Here’s chapter 2 of my ongoing series rhat I have decided to title, “Gloating over hysterically awful Apple takes that didn’t age well at all”. It’s that time a notoriously bearish Apple analyst got canned for his embarrassing train of sh*tty forecasts. It’s from six years and a month ago. In late 2015 AAPlL was around $24 and change a share. Since then AAPL has increased roughly 7x based on Friday’s closing price.

    https://appleinsider.com/articles/15/12/28/berenberg-fires-analyst-infamous-for-doom-and-gloom-apple-forecasts

    ”In his last Apple stock forecast, from March [2015], Ahmad raised his target to $85, but claimed that the company was "over-earning" and "over-loved," and that its stock would soon be "over-and-out."”

    Adnaan Ahmad, meet Michael Dell. Michael, Adnaan. If your dunce caps are fitting a little
    tightly just adjust the strap in the back.
    Oops! Error, sorry.
    edited January 29
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