iPhone supplier Pegatron issues production warning over COVID lockdowns

AppleInsider

Apple assembly partner Pegatron has advised production at a factory in Shanghai has been impacted by the COVID-19 lockdown, a warning that could harm the manufacturing of iPhones and other products.

Lockdowns have caused problems in China for manufacturers, with many assembly partners of Apple fighting to keep operations running as smoothly as possible despite lockdowns in Shanghai and other areas. One supplier, Pegatron, has confirmed it is struggling to deal with the situation.

Pegatron said on Thursday that the production of communications devices and consumer electronics for the quarter will be lower, due to the lockdowns. SCMP reports Pegatron didn't say how much the production levels would drop by.

The announcement arrives a month after Pegatron suspended operations at its Shanghai and Kunshan facilities, effectively cutting production at its only two manufacturing bases in China.

Pegatron assembles between 20% to 30% of all iPhone models, but it is unclear if the latest statement means Apple-related production will be hit or if it will impact Pegatron's other clients more.

Apple has already braced itself for impact from COVID-related disruptions. In its April financial results call, Apple's chief financial officer Luca Maestri said year-on-year revenue in the June quarter could be down $4 billion to $8 billion due to lockdowns and supply constraints.

Read on AppleInsider

lkrupp

Western manufacturers like Apple dug themselves into this pit of doing business with a totalitarian state for the cheap labor and massive human resources it provides. Climbing out of this pit is going to be a very time consuming and difficult task that will take years if not decades to accomplish. So get ready, people, for the long haul of reduced production, supply chain backups, political shenanigans. Be prepared to wait months for your precious iPhones and Macs to arrive.

mikethemartian

Business 101. Diversify.

lkrupp

mikethemartian said:

Business 101. Diversify.

Nope, not when there’s only one source of the skilled manpower required. 

entropys

Is that picture a scene from the upcoming Apple TV+ production of Metropolis?

crowley

lkrupp said:

mikethemartian said:

Business 101. Diversify.

Nope, not when there’s only one source of the skilled manpower required. 

Especially when there's only one source of the skilled manpower required.  That's a major point of weakness.

Apple got burned by being dependent on IBM for PowerPC, then by Intel, Imagination for graphics, Qualcomm for modems.  In each case they worked or are working a solution to move away from that dependence.  Of course they're doing the same with China, I look forward to seeing the effort fully realised.

Madbum

lkrupp said:

Western manufacturers like Apple dug themselves into this pit of doing business with a totalitarian state for the cheap labor and massive human resources it provides. Climbing out of this pit is going to be a very time consuming and difficult task that will take years if not decades to accomplish. So get ready, people, for the long haul of reduced production, supply chain backups, political shenanigans. Be prepared to wait months for your precious iPhones and Macs to arrive.

Totalitarian? Is India also totalitarian in your view? Brazil? What is left?

further, some would argue current business environment in the USA leans communist , what about that?

point is, don’t generalize but I do agree about China

crowley

Madbum said:

Totalitarian? Is India also totalitarian in your view? Brazil? What is left?

Yes. No. No. Lots.

Madbum said:

further, some would argue current business environment in the USA leans communist , what about that?

What idiot people are these?

waveparticle

lkrupp said:

Western manufacturers like Apple dug themselves into this pit of doing business with a totalitarian state for the cheap labor and massive human resources it provides. Climbing out of this pit is going to be a very time consuming and difficult task that will take years if not decades to accomplish. So get ready, people, for the long haul of reduced production, supply chain backups, political shenanigans. Be prepared to wait months for your precious iPhones and Macs to arrive.

Wrong! China created the global supply chain in the last forty years. You mix up the cause and effect. 

JWSC

waveparticle said:

lkrupp said:

Western manufacturers like Apple dug themselves into this pit of doing business with a totalitarian state for the cheap labor and massive human resources it provides. Climbing out of this pit is going to be a very time consuming and difficult task that will take years if not decades to accomplish. So get ready, people, for the long haul of reduced production, supply chain backups, political shenanigans. Be prepared to wait months for your precious iPhones and Macs to arrive.

Wrong! China created the global supply chain in the last forty years. You mix up the cause and effect. 

The global corporations of the United States laid the foundations of the Chinese rise. Without the United States, China would be a shadow of itself today.

China is now strong enough to go it alone. And they’ll need to as the western world begins to reassess its reliance on totalitarian states.  We can all thank Putin for the wake up call.

waveparticle

JWSC said:

waveparticle said:

lkrupp said:

Western manufacturers like Apple dug themselves into this pit of doing business with a totalitarian state for the cheap labor and massive human resources it provides. Climbing out of this pit is going to be a very time consuming and difficult task that will take years if not decades to accomplish. So get ready, people, for the long haul of reduced production, supply chain backups, political shenanigans. Be prepared to wait months for your precious iPhones and Macs to arrive.

Wrong! China created the global supply chain in the last forty years. You mix up the cause and effect. 

The global corporations of the United States laid the foundations of the Chinese rise. Without the United States, China would be a shadow of itself today.

China is now strong enough to go it alone. And they’ll need to as the western world begins to reassess its reliance on totalitarian states.  We can all thank Putin for the wake up call.

China thought it can go by itself. Then US government mercilessly killed Huawei. China learned a big lesson from US that it is still no match to US. 

avon b7

JWSC said:

waveparticle said:

lkrupp said:

Western manufacturers like Apple dug themselves into this pit of doing business with a totalitarian state for the cheap labor and massive human resources it provides. Climbing out of this pit is going to be a very time consuming and difficult task that will take years if not decades to accomplish. So get ready, people, for the long haul of reduced production, supply chain backups, political shenanigans. Be prepared to wait months for your precious iPhones and Macs to arrive.

Wrong! China created the global supply chain in the last forty years. You mix up the cause and effect. 

The global corporations of the United States laid the foundations of the Chinese rise. Without the United States, China would be a shadow of itself today.

China is now strong enough to go it alone. And they’ll need to as the western world begins to reassess its reliance on totalitarian states.  We can all thank Putin for the wake up call.

At the end of the day, the sole reason for US efforts against China is to hamper its technological advancement and stop it gaining influence around the world. 

Donald Trump started a trade war with China because the US wanted more trade with China, not less. 

The way the US has gone about achieving those goals is hamfisted and self damaging, serving only to accelerate the inevitable move to greater self sufficiency by China. 

Russia and Covid/chip shortages may have muddied things up a bit but there have been no major gains for anyone. We just know that China is pushing harder to reach its goals even sooner. 

It is said that Apple had a multi billion dollar deal with the Chinese government which would be a case of business logic and probably made sense at the time. Diversification is always the route I would choose and I've long criticised Apple for putting all its eggs in the TSMC basket, for example. 

It was always just an earthquake (or the natural disaster of your choice) away from everything falling apart, but you take risks knowing what's at stake. 

tmay

avon b7 said:

JWSC said:

waveparticle said:

lkrupp said:

Western manufacturers like Apple dug themselves into this pit of doing business with a totalitarian state for the cheap labor and massive human resources it provides. Climbing out of this pit is going to be a very time consuming and difficult task that will take years if not decades to accomplish. So get ready, people, for the long haul of reduced production, supply chain backups, political shenanigans. Be prepared to wait months for your precious iPhones and Macs to arrive.

Wrong! China created the global supply chain in the last forty years. You mix up the cause and effect. 

The global corporations of the United States laid the foundations of the Chinese rise. Without the United States, China would be a shadow of itself today.

China is now strong enough to go it alone. And they’ll need to as the western world begins to reassess its reliance on totalitarian states.  We can all thank Putin for the wake up call.

At the end of the day, the sole reason for US efforts against China is to hamper its technological advancement and stop it gaining influence around the world. 

Donald Trump started a trade war with China because the US wanted more trade with China, not less. 

The way the US has gone about achieving those goals is hamfisted and self damaging, serving only to accelerate the inevitable move to greater self sufficiency by China. 

Russia and Covid/chip shortages may have muddied things up a bit but there have been no major gains for anyone. We just know that China is pushing harder to reach its goals even sooner. 

It is said that Apple had a multi billion dollar deal with the Chinese government which would be a case of business logic and probably made sense at the time. Diversification is always the route I would choose and I've long criticised Apple for putting all its eggs in the TSMC basket, for example. 

It was always just an earthquake (or the natural disaster of your choice) away from everything falling apart, but you take risks knowing what's at stake. 

Uh, no, not the sole reason, but you are correct that stopping China from gaining influence and denying the existing rules of order is certainly part of that. 

Given that Russia, an autocracy that is transitioning to a dictatorship, invaded Ukraine, for whatever the fuck reason that they state on any given day, it behooves the West to put National Security over mercantilism, such that neither Russia, nor China, is able to use Western technology for weapons. That also means that the West can not rely on Russia or China for any part of any supply chain that is essential for the West's National Security. We've already seen what happens when the West relies on China for PPE during COVID 19, and what happens when the EU is dependent on Russian energy.

In the meantime, it appears as well that China is transitioning from an autocracy to a dictatorship, evidenced by their zero COVID strategy, but we won't know the results of that for some time, which would be indicated by Xi getting yet another term this fall. 

Expect the West to restructure supply chains out of China elsewhere to increase resilience.

avon b7

tmay said:

avon b7 said:

JWSC said:

waveparticle said:

lkrupp said:

Western manufacturers like Apple dug themselves into this pit of doing business with a totalitarian state for the cheap labor and massive human resources it provides. Climbing out of this pit is going to be a very time consuming and difficult task that will take years if not decades to accomplish. So get ready, people, for the long haul of reduced production, supply chain backups, political shenanigans. Be prepared to wait months for your precious iPhones and Macs to arrive.

Wrong! China created the global supply chain in the last forty years. You mix up the cause and effect. 

The global corporations of the United States laid the foundations of the Chinese rise. Without the United States, China would be a shadow of itself today.

China is now strong enough to go it alone. And they’ll need to as the western world begins to reassess its reliance on totalitarian states.  We can all thank Putin for the wake up call.

At the end of the day, the sole reason for US efforts against China is to hamper its technological advancement and stop it gaining influence around the world. 

Donald Trump started a trade war with China because the US wanted more trade with China, not less. 

The way the US has gone about achieving those goals is hamfisted and self damaging, serving only to accelerate the inevitable move to greater self sufficiency by China. 

Russia and Covid/chip shortages may have muddied things up a bit but there have been no major gains for anyone. We just know that China is pushing harder to reach its goals even sooner. 

It is said that Apple had a multi billion dollar deal with the Chinese government which would be a case of business logic and probably made sense at the time. Diversification is always the route I would choose and I've long criticised Apple for putting all its eggs in the TSMC basket, for example. 

It was always just an earthquake (or the natural disaster of your choice) away from everything falling apart, but you take risks knowing what's at stake. 

Uh, no, not the sole reason, but you are correct that stopping China from gaining influence and denying the existing rules of order is certainly part of that. 

Given that Russia, an autocracy that is transitioning to a dictatorship, invaded Ukraine, for whatever the fuck reason that they state on any given day, it behooves the West to put National Security over mercantilism, such that neither Russia, nor China, is able to use Western technology for weapons. That also means that the West can not rely on Russia or China for any part of any supply chain that is essential for the West's National Security. We've already seen what happens when the West relies on China for PPE during COVID 19, and what happens when the EU is dependent on Russian energy.

In the meantime, it appears as well that China is transitioning from an autocracy to a dictatorship, evidenced by their zero COVID strategy, but we won't know the results of that for some time, which would be indicated by Xi getting yet another term this fall. 

Expect the West to restructure supply chains out of China elsewhere to increase resilience.

Not relying on anyone for national security is a universal goal for everyone. Not only the West. 

The US is trying to impede China from reaching technological parity with it and reduce its influence. That is all. Something that is impossible. It is the sole reason for its efforts.

It wants a 'unipolar' world where it always has the best hand. That's a lost cause now as we head to a multi-polar world where it does not hold all the cards. 

On the other hand it loves Chinese trade and so does Apple (for obvious reasons). Reducing reliance is one thing. De-coupling is another.

There is growing consensus that the only thing that has prevented the Ukraine situation from escalating completely out of control is precisely the globalised supply chain. That is somewhat ironic given the Hawk nature of certain elements within the US government. 

The US is somewhat schizophrenic depending on who is in government. 

Take 5G and Huawei. 

Trump put his boot down on Boris Johnson's head to get him to buckle on that. That was easy seeing as he had a Brexit toecap in the boot. But the same Trump was perfectly willing to see the UAE forge ahead with its Huawei ties as long as a multi-billion dollar F-35/Drone sale went ahead. So much for national security!

It was Biden who eventually put an ultimatum on the table with the 'Huawei or us' demands. 

Well, that backfired in spectacular fashion when the UAE canceled the sale, intensified ties with Huawei and purchased French and Chinese jets/drones instead. Ooops!

It just goes to show you can't have your cake and eat it. 

Truth be told, the word 'cancel' is perhaps overstating things. It's more likely the UAE is simply waiting to see who occupies the White House next time around. No doubt Tim Cook is also looking at things in a similar fashion (with a view to potential US anti trust policy too). 

Also, Trump set off a cascade of events whereby 'weaponisation' of US IP 'post sale' set alarm bells ringing around the global supply chain and you can be sure that it is now scrambling to eradicate US technology dependencies to protect itself from the extraterritorial 'sanctions' that have put a stranglehold on normal business operations in sovereign states. 

For EDA in chip design for example, I know for a fact that one of the big three US players would rather see its license keys hacked, and for 'sanctioned' companies to use the software without paying for it because the alternative is the creation of new players who will ultimately challenge its dominant position. 

Unfortunately, those new players have already been created so it's just a question of time now. The damage is done. 

Huawei is going to reveal a new programming language this year and some sketchy rumors point to it being based on Chinese instead of English. The 'official' reason for its existence is to facilitate coding between HarmonyOS and Euler but more will be read into it than that and I can see why if it turns out to be in Chinese. Only rumours at this point though. 

That is what 'decoupling' brings. Short term gain. Long term pain. 

In all this geopolitical mess, Apple is simply vying for its own business interests which is normal and very wise. Political tensions have caused it untold stress over the last few years and Covid has added yet more stress. It has literally been hanging by a thread in China for three full years now with very probably its only ('trump'?) card being that supposed multi-billion dollar deal with the Chinese government. 

Who knows if another 'secret' deal is being mulled over as we speak? 

In the meantime, the RCEP has gone live representing the largest free trade deal in history (US not part of it of course) and the global supply chain remains intact even as certain blocs seek to reduce reliance in specific areas. The EU for example is said to rely on China for 103 key industrial areas and projections say it could take up to 20 years to change that. The US is trying to reduce dependence on Chinese rare earths and processing, but once again, there is talk that that might be almost impossible to achieve. 

tmay

avon b7 said:

tmay said:

avon b7 said:

JWSC said:

waveparticle said:

lkrupp said:

Western manufacturers like Apple dug themselves into this pit of doing business with a totalitarian state for the cheap labor and massive human resources it provides. Climbing out of this pit is going to be a very time consuming and difficult task that will take years if not decades to accomplish. So get ready, people, for the long haul of reduced production, supply chain backups, political shenanigans. Be prepared to wait months for your precious iPhones and Macs to arrive.

Wrong! China created the global supply chain in the last forty years. You mix up the cause and effect. 

The global corporations of the United States laid the foundations of the Chinese rise. Without the United States, China would be a shadow of itself today.

China is now strong enough to go it alone. And they’ll need to as the western world begins to reassess its reliance on totalitarian states.  We can all thank Putin for the wake up call.

At the end of the day, the sole reason for US efforts against China is to hamper its technological advancement and stop it gaining influence around the world. 

Donald Trump started a trade war with China because the US wanted more trade with China, not less. 

The way the US has gone about achieving those goals is hamfisted and self damaging, serving only to accelerate the inevitable move to greater self sufficiency by China. 

Russia and Covid/chip shortages may have muddied things up a bit but there have been no major gains for anyone. We just know that China is pushing harder to reach its goals even sooner. 

It is said that Apple had a multi billion dollar deal with the Chinese government which would be a case of business logic and probably made sense at the time. Diversification is always the route I would choose and I've long criticised Apple for putting all its eggs in the TSMC basket, for example. 

It was always just an earthquake (or the natural disaster of your choice) away from everything falling apart, but you take risks knowing what's at stake. 

Uh, no, not the sole reason, but you are correct that stopping China from gaining influence and denying the existing rules of order is certainly part of that. 

Given that Russia, an autocracy that is transitioning to a dictatorship, invaded Ukraine, for whatever the fuck reason that they state on any given day, it behooves the West to put National Security over mercantilism, such that neither Russia, nor China, is able to use Western technology for weapons. That also means that the West can not rely on Russia or China for any part of any supply chain that is essential for the West's National Security. We've already seen what happens when the West relies on China for PPE during COVID 19, and what happens when the EU is dependent on Russian energy.

In the meantime, it appears as well that China is transitioning from an autocracy to a dictatorship, evidenced by their zero COVID strategy, but we won't know the results of that for some time, which would be indicated by Xi getting yet another term this fall. 

Expect the West to restructure supply chains out of China elsewhere to increase resilience.

Not relying on anyone for national security is a universal goal for everyone. Not only the West. 

The US is trying to impede China from reaching technological parity with it and reduce its influence. That is all. Something that is impossible. It is the sole reason for its efforts.

It wants a 'unipolar' world where it always has the best hand. That's a lost cause now as we head to a multi-polar world where it does not hold all the cards. 

On the other hand it loves Chinese trade and so does Apple (for obvious reasons). Reducing reliance is one thing. De-coupling is another.

There is growing consensus that the only thing that has prevented the Ukraine situation from escalating completely out of control is precisely the globalised supply chain. That is somewhat ironic given the Hawk nature of certain elements within the US government. 

The US is somewhat schizophrenic depending on who is in government. 

Take 5G and Huawei. 

Trump put his boot down on Boris Johnson's head to get him to buckle on that. That was easy seeing as he had a Brexit toecap in the boot. But the same Trump was perfectly willing to see the UAE forge ahead with its Huawei ties as long as a multi-billion dollar F-35/Drone sale went ahead. So much for national security!

It was Biden who eventually put an ultimatum on the table with the 'Huawei or us' demands. 

Well, that backfired in spectacular fashion when the UAE canceled the sale, intensified ties with Huawei and purchased French and Chinese jets/drones instead. Ooops!

It just goes to show you can't have your cake and eat it. 

Truth be told, the word 'cancel' is perhaps overstating things. It's more likely the UAE is simply waiting to see who occupies the White House next time around. No doubt Tim Cook is also looking at things in a similar fashion (with a view to potential US anti trust policy too). 

Also, Trump set off a cascade of events whereby 'weaponisation' of US IP 'post sale' set alarm bells ringing around the global supply chain and you can be sure that it is now scrambling to eradicate US technology dependencies to protect itself from the extraterritorial 'sanctions' that have put a stranglehold on normal business operations in sovereign states. 

For EDA in chip design for example, I know for a fact that one of the big three US players would rather see its license keys hacked, and for 'sanctioned' companies to use the software without paying for it because the alternative is the creation of new players who will ultimately challenge its dominant position. 

Unfortunately, those new players have already been created so it's just a question of time now. The damage is done. 

Huawei is going to reveal a new programming language this year and some sketchy rumors point to it being based on Chinese instead of English. The 'official' reason for its existence is to facilitate coding between HarmonyOS and Euler but more will be read into it than that and I can see why if it turns out to be in Chinese. Only rumours at this point though. 

That is what 'decoupling' brings. Short term gain. Long term pain. 

In all this geopolitical mess, Apple is simply vying for its own business interests which is normal and very wise. Political tensions have caused it untold stress over the last few years and Covid has added yet more stress. It has literally been hanging by a thread in China for three full years now with very probably its only ('trump'?) card being that supposed multi-billion dollar deal with the Chinese government. 

Who knows if another 'secret' deal is being mulled over as we speak? 

In the meantime, the RCEP has gone live representing the largest free trade deal in history (US not part of it of course) and the global supply chain remains intact even as certain blocs seek to reduce reliance in specific areas. The EU for example is said to rely on China for 103 key industrial areas and projections say it could take up to 20 years to change that. The US is trying to reduce dependence on Chinese rare earths and processing, but once again, there is talk that that might be almost impossible to achieve. 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/18/eu-to-step-up-indo-pacific-defence-presence-over-china-fears-and-ukraine-example?CMP=share_btn_tw

The European Union has resolved to step up its defence strategy in the Indo-Pacific region in light of fears about China’s growing presence and concerns for the international order sparked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

“Our motto is always to cooperate whenever possible, but to defend whenever necessary as well,” said Gabriele Visentin, the EU’s special envoy to the Indo-Pacific. “It’s not directed against a country or another – it’s a way of enhancing our capacity and our credibility in terms of defending our interests.”

The deal that shocked the world: inside the China-Solomons security pact

Read more

Visentin said there was no evidence to suggest a war was imminent in the region – which covers a vast sweep of the globe from the east coast of Africa to the Pacific island countries – but the EU was concerned the “multilateral rules-based order will not be fully respected”.

“The pricetag that has been put on the breach of the multilateral rules-based order is quite high. It’s surely a signal to others who might wish to break the multilateral order in such a violent way, well, then they know what they can encounter.”

China is viewed as the biggest such threat in the region. Visentin said China was seen as “a partner, a competitor and a rival” by the EU.

Yeah, who would imagine that the EU is concerned about China...

avon b7

tmay said:

avon b7 said:

tmay said:

avon b7 said:

JWSC said:

waveparticle said:

lkrupp said:

Western manufacturers like Apple dug themselves into this pit of doing business with a totalitarian state for the cheap labor and massive human resources it provides. Climbing out of this pit is going to be a very time consuming and difficult task that will take years if not decades to accomplish. So get ready, people, for the long haul of reduced production, supply chain backups, political shenanigans. Be prepared to wait months for your precious iPhones and Macs to arrive.

Wrong! China created the global supply chain in the last forty years. You mix up the cause and effect. 

The global corporations of the United States laid the foundations of the Chinese rise. Without the United States, China would be a shadow of itself today.

China is now strong enough to go it alone. And they’ll need to as the western world begins to reassess its reliance on totalitarian states.  We can all thank Putin for the wake up call.

At the end of the day, the sole reason for US efforts against China is to hamper its technological advancement and stop it gaining influence around the world. 

Donald Trump started a trade war with China because the US wanted more trade with China, not less. 

The way the US has gone about achieving those goals is hamfisted and self damaging, serving only to accelerate the inevitable move to greater self sufficiency by China. 

Russia and Covid/chip shortages may have muddied things up a bit but there have been no major gains for anyone. We just know that China is pushing harder to reach its goals even sooner. 

It is said that Apple had a multi billion dollar deal with the Chinese government which would be a case of business logic and probably made sense at the time. Diversification is always the route I would choose and I've long criticised Apple for putting all its eggs in the TSMC basket, for example. 

It was always just an earthquake (or the natural disaster of your choice) away from everything falling apart, but you take risks knowing what's at stake. 

Uh, no, not the sole reason, but you are correct that stopping China from gaining influence and denying the existing rules of order is certainly part of that. 

Given that Russia, an autocracy that is transitioning to a dictatorship, invaded Ukraine, for whatever the fuck reason that they state on any given day, it behooves the West to put National Security over mercantilism, such that neither Russia, nor China, is able to use Western technology for weapons. That also means that the West can not rely on Russia or China for any part of any supply chain that is essential for the West's National Security. We've already seen what happens when the West relies on China for PPE during COVID 19, and what happens when the EU is dependent on Russian energy.

In the meantime, it appears as well that China is transitioning from an autocracy to a dictatorship, evidenced by their zero COVID strategy, but we won't know the results of that for some time, which would be indicated by Xi getting yet another term this fall. 

Expect the West to restructure supply chains out of China elsewhere to increase resilience.

Not relying on anyone for national security is a universal goal for everyone. Not only the West. 

The US is trying to impede China from reaching technological parity with it and reduce its influence. That is all. Something that is impossible. It is the sole reason for its efforts.

It wants a 'unipolar' world where it always has the best hand. That's a lost cause now as we head to a multi-polar world where it does not hold all the cards. 

On the other hand it loves Chinese trade and so does Apple (for obvious reasons). Reducing reliance is one thing. De-coupling is another.

There is growing consensus that the only thing that has prevented the Ukraine situation from escalating completely out of control is precisely the globalised supply chain. That is somewhat ironic given the Hawk nature of certain elements within the US government. 

The US is somewhat schizophrenic depending on who is in government. 

Take 5G and Huawei. 

Trump put his boot down on Boris Johnson's head to get him to buckle on that. That was easy seeing as he had a Brexit toecap in the boot. But the same Trump was perfectly willing to see the UAE forge ahead with its Huawei ties as long as a multi-billion dollar F-35/Drone sale went ahead. So much for national security!

It was Biden who eventually put an ultimatum on the table with the 'Huawei or us' demands. 

Well, that backfired in spectacular fashion when the UAE canceled the sale, intensified ties with Huawei and purchased French and Chinese jets/drones instead. Ooops!

It just goes to show you can't have your cake and eat it. 

Truth be told, the word 'cancel' is perhaps overstating things. It's more likely the UAE is simply waiting to see who occupies the White House next time around. No doubt Tim Cook is also looking at things in a similar fashion (with a view to potential US anti trust policy too). 

Also, Trump set off a cascade of events whereby 'weaponisation' of US IP 'post sale' set alarm bells ringing around the global supply chain and you can be sure that it is now scrambling to eradicate US technology dependencies to protect itself from the extraterritorial 'sanctions' that have put a stranglehold on normal business operations in sovereign states. 

For EDA in chip design for example, I know for a fact that one of the big three US players would rather see its license keys hacked, and for 'sanctioned' companies to use the software without paying for it because the alternative is the creation of new players who will ultimately challenge its dominant position. 

Unfortunately, those new players have already been created so it's just a question of time now. The damage is done. 

Huawei is going to reveal a new programming language this year and some sketchy rumors point to it being based on Chinese instead of English. The 'official' reason for its existence is to facilitate coding between HarmonyOS and Euler but more will be read into it than that and I can see why if it turns out to be in Chinese. Only rumours at this point though. 

That is what 'decoupling' brings. Short term gain. Long term pain. 

In all this geopolitical mess, Apple is simply vying for its own business interests which is normal and very wise. Political tensions have caused it untold stress over the last few years and Covid has added yet more stress. It has literally been hanging by a thread in China for three full years now with very probably its only ('trump'?) card being that supposed multi-billion dollar deal with the Chinese government. 

Who knows if another 'secret' deal is being mulled over as we speak? 

In the meantime, the RCEP has gone live representing the largest free trade deal in history (US not part of it of course) and the global supply chain remains intact even as certain blocs seek to reduce reliance in specific areas. The EU for example is said to rely on China for 103 key industrial areas and projections say it could take up to 20 years to change that. The US is trying to reduce dependence on Chinese rare earths and processing, but once again, there is talk that that might be almost impossible to achieve. 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/18/eu-to-step-up-indo-pacific-defence-presence-over-china-fears-and-ukraine-example?CMP=share_btn_tw

The European Union has resolved to step up its defence strategy in the Indo-Pacific region in light of fears about China’s growing presence and concerns for the international order sparked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

“Our motto is always to cooperate whenever possible, but to defend whenever necessary as well,” said Gabriele Visentin, the EU’s special envoy to the Indo-Pacific. “It’s not directed against a country or another – it’s a way of enhancing our capacity and our credibility in terms of defending our interests.”

The deal that shocked the world: inside the China-Solomons security pact

Read more

Visentin said there was no evidence to suggest a war was imminent in the region – which covers a vast sweep of the globe from the east coast of Africa to the Pacific island countries – but the EU was concerned the “multilateral rules-based order will not be fully respected”.

“The pricetag that has been put on the breach of the multilateral rules-based order is quite high. It’s surely a signal to others who might wish to break the multilateral order in such a violent way, well, then they know what they can encounter.”

China is viewed as the biggest such threat in the region. Visentin said China was seen as “a partner, a competitor and a rival” by the EU.

Yeah, who would imagine that the EU is concerned about China... You bolded it yourself:

The EU sees China as a partner, a competitor and a rival. It sees the US exactly the same way!

... 

"multilateral rules-based order will not be fully respected" 

It is ironic that a crystal clear example of this was Trump's extraterritorial, unilateral 'sanctions' which severely impacted non-US companies in sovereign states.

To draw from the EDA example above. One of the big three was actually 100% purchased by a German company a few years ago but the US still wants its sanctions to apply to it because some of the technology 'originated' in the US.

I'm sure even you will be able to see this kind of activity doesn't go down well anywhere and is the perfect backdrop/justification for erradicating US technology dependencies across the globe. Companies have no issues being told where technology they decide to purchase can be used 'prior to sale' but 'post sale' it is akin to having the rug pulled out from under your feet.

Korean companies with vested interests in Chinese business may well be the first to free themselves of US-restricted technology. EU and Japanese companies won't be far behind. A lot of tech companies will be moving to reach that common goal. 

Apple would do well to put more of its manufacturing eggs into more than one region but I expect China to stay one of its firm favourites. After all, the Chinese market is a core market for manufacturing, assembly and final sale (products and services).

Geopolitics and the pandemic have complicated things unnecessarily but you have to adapt to whatever comes your way. Apple isn't alone in navigating these turbulent waters. 

tmay

avon b7 said:

tmay said:

avon b7 said:

tmay said:

avon b7 said:

JWSC said:

waveparticle said:

lkrupp said:

Western manufacturers like Apple dug themselves into this pit of doing business with a totalitarian state for the cheap labor and massive human resources it provides. Climbing out of this pit is going to be a very time consuming and difficult task that will take years if not decades to accomplish. So get ready, people, for the long haul of reduced production, supply chain backups, political shenanigans. Be prepared to wait months for your precious iPhones and Macs to arrive.

Wrong! China created the global supply chain in the last forty years. You mix up the cause and effect. 

The global corporations of the United States laid the foundations of the Chinese rise. Without the United States, China would be a shadow of itself today.

China is now strong enough to go it alone. And they’ll need to as the western world begins to reassess its reliance on totalitarian states.  We can all thank Putin for the wake up call.

At the end of the day, the sole reason for US efforts against China is to hamper its technological advancement and stop it gaining influence around the world. 

Donald Trump started a trade war with China because the US wanted more trade with China, not less. 

The way the US has gone about achieving those goals is hamfisted and self damaging, serving only to accelerate the inevitable move to greater self sufficiency by China. 

Russia and Covid/chip shortages may have muddied things up a bit but there have been no major gains for anyone. We just know that China is pushing harder to reach its goals even sooner. 

It is said that Apple had a multi billion dollar deal with the Chinese government which would be a case of business logic and probably made sense at the time. Diversification is always the route I would choose and I've long criticised Apple for putting all its eggs in the TSMC basket, for example. 

It was always just an earthquake (or the natural disaster of your choice) away from everything falling apart, but you take risks knowing what's at stake. 

Uh, no, not the sole reason, but you are correct that stopping China from gaining influence and denying the existing rules of order is certainly part of that. 

Given that Russia, an autocracy that is transitioning to a dictatorship, invaded Ukraine, for whatever the fuck reason that they state on any given day, it behooves the West to put National Security over mercantilism, such that neither Russia, nor China, is able to use Western technology for weapons. That also means that the West can not rely on Russia or China for any part of any supply chain that is essential for the West's National Security. We've already seen what happens when the West relies on China for PPE during COVID 19, and what happens when the EU is dependent on Russian energy.

In the meantime, it appears as well that China is transitioning from an autocracy to a dictatorship, evidenced by their zero COVID strategy, but we won't know the results of that for some time, which would be indicated by Xi getting yet another term this fall. 

Expect the West to restructure supply chains out of China elsewhere to increase resilience.

Not relying on anyone for national security is a universal goal for everyone. Not only the West. 

The US is trying to impede China from reaching technological parity with it and reduce its influence. That is all. Something that is impossible. It is the sole reason for its efforts.

It wants a 'unipolar' world where it always has the best hand. That's a lost cause now as we head to a multi-polar world where it does not hold all the cards. 

On the other hand it loves Chinese trade and so does Apple (for obvious reasons). Reducing reliance is one thing. De-coupling is another.

There is growing consensus that the only thing that has prevented the Ukraine situation from escalating completely out of control is precisely the globalised supply chain. That is somewhat ironic given the Hawk nature of certain elements within the US government. 

The US is somewhat schizophrenic depending on who is in government. 

Take 5G and Huawei. 

Trump put his boot down on Boris Johnson's head to get him to buckle on that. That was easy seeing as he had a Brexit toecap in the boot. But the same Trump was perfectly willing to see the UAE forge ahead with its Huawei ties as long as a multi-billion dollar F-35/Drone sale went ahead. So much for national security!

It was Biden who eventually put an ultimatum on the table with the 'Huawei or us' demands. 

Well, that backfired in spectacular fashion when the UAE canceled the sale, intensified ties with Huawei and purchased French and Chinese jets/drones instead. Ooops!

It just goes to show you can't have your cake and eat it. 

Truth be told, the word 'cancel' is perhaps overstating things. It's more likely the UAE is simply waiting to see who occupies the White House next time around. No doubt Tim Cook is also looking at things in a similar fashion (with a view to potential US anti trust policy too). 

Also, Trump set off a cascade of events whereby 'weaponisation' of US IP 'post sale' set alarm bells ringing around the global supply chain and you can be sure that it is now scrambling to eradicate US technology dependencies to protect itself from the extraterritorial 'sanctions' that have put a stranglehold on normal business operations in sovereign states. 

For EDA in chip design for example, I know for a fact that one of the big three US players would rather see its license keys hacked, and for 'sanctioned' companies to use the software without paying for it because the alternative is the creation of new players who will ultimately challenge its dominant position. 

Unfortunately, those new players have already been created so it's just a question of time now. The damage is done. 

Huawei is going to reveal a new programming language this year and some sketchy rumors point to it being based on Chinese instead of English. The 'official' reason for its existence is to facilitate coding between HarmonyOS and Euler but more will be read into it than that and I can see why if it turns out to be in Chinese. Only rumours at this point though. 

That is what 'decoupling' brings. Short term gain. Long term pain. 

In all this geopolitical mess, Apple is simply vying for its own business interests which is normal and very wise. Political tensions have caused it untold stress over the last few years and Covid has added yet more stress. It has literally been hanging by a thread in China for three full years now with very probably its only ('trump'?) card being that supposed multi-billion dollar deal with the Chinese government. 

Who knows if another 'secret' deal is being mulled over as we speak? 

In the meantime, the RCEP has gone live representing the largest free trade deal in history (US not part of it of course) and the global supply chain remains intact even as certain blocs seek to reduce reliance in specific areas. The EU for example is said to rely on China for 103 key industrial areas and projections say it could take up to 20 years to change that. The US is trying to reduce dependence on Chinese rare earths and processing, but once again, there is talk that that might be almost impossible to achieve. 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/18/eu-to-step-up-indo-pacific-defence-presence-over-china-fears-and-ukraine-example?CMP=share_btn_tw

The European Union has resolved to step up its defence strategy in the Indo-Pacific region in light of fears about China’s growing presence and concerns for the international order sparked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

“Our motto is always to cooperate whenever possible, but to defend whenever necessary as well,” said Gabriele Visentin, the EU’s special envoy to the Indo-Pacific. “It’s not directed against a country or another – it’s a way of enhancing our capacity and our credibility in terms of defending our interests.”

The deal that shocked the world: inside the China-Solomons security pact

Read more

Visentin said there was no evidence to suggest a war was imminent in the region – which covers a vast sweep of the globe from the east coast of Africa to the Pacific island countries – but the EU was concerned the “multilateral rules-based order will not be fully respected”.

“The pricetag that has been put on the breach of the multilateral rules-based order is quite high. It’s surely a signal to others who might wish to break the multilateral order in such a violent way, well, then they know what they can encounter.”

China is viewed as the biggest such threat in the region. Visentin said China was seen as “a partner, a competitor and a rival” by the EU.

Yeah, who would imagine that the EU is concerned about China...

How did that actually work out with Russia? It's almost like the EU made a 180 degree turn in how it deals with autocracy, and surely, China is an autocracy.

avon b7

tmay said:

avon b7 said:

tmay said:

avon b7 said:

tmay said:

avon b7 said:

JWSC said:

waveparticle said:

lkrupp said:

Western manufacturers like Apple dug themselves into this pit of doing business with a totalitarian state for the cheap labor and massive human resources it provides. Climbing out of this pit is going to be a very time consuming and difficult task that will take years if not decades to accomplish. So get ready, people, for the long haul of reduced production, supply chain backups, political shenanigans. Be prepared to wait months for your precious iPhones and Macs to arrive.

Wrong! China created the global supply chain in the last forty years. You mix up the cause and effect. 

The global corporations of the United States laid the foundations of the Chinese rise. Without the United States, China would be a shadow of itself today.

China is now strong enough to go it alone. And they’ll need to as the western world begins to reassess its reliance on totalitarian states.  We can all thank Putin for the wake up call.

At the end of the day, the sole reason for US efforts against China is to hamper its technological advancement and stop it gaining influence around the world. 

Donald Trump started a trade war with China because the US wanted more trade with China, not less. 

The way the US has gone about achieving those goals is hamfisted and self damaging, serving only to accelerate the inevitable move to greater self sufficiency by China. 

Russia and Covid/chip shortages may have muddied things up a bit but there have been no major gains for anyone. We just know that China is pushing harder to reach its goals even sooner. 

It is said that Apple had a multi billion dollar deal with the Chinese government which would be a case of business logic and probably made sense at the time. Diversification is always the route I would choose and I've long criticised Apple for putting all its eggs in the TSMC basket, for example. 

It was always just an earthquake (or the natural disaster of your choice) away from everything falling apart, but you take risks knowing what's at stake. 

Uh, no, not the sole reason, but you are correct that stopping China from gaining influence and denying the existing rules of order is certainly part of that. 

Given that Russia, an autocracy that is transitioning to a dictatorship, invaded Ukraine, for whatever the fuck reason that they state on any given day, it behooves the West to put National Security over mercantilism, such that neither Russia, nor China, is able to use Western technology for weapons. That also means that the West can not rely on Russia or China for any part of any supply chain that is essential for the West's National Security. We've already seen what happens when the West relies on China for PPE during COVID 19, and what happens when the EU is dependent on Russian energy.

In the meantime, it appears as well that China is transitioning from an autocracy to a dictatorship, evidenced by their zero COVID strategy, but we won't know the results of that for some time, which would be indicated by Xi getting yet another term this fall. 

Expect the West to restructure supply chains out of China elsewhere to increase resilience.

Not relying on anyone for national security is a universal goal for everyone. Not only the West. 

The US is trying to impede China from reaching technological parity with it and reduce its influence. That is all. Something that is impossible. It is the sole reason for its efforts.

It wants a 'unipolar' world where it always has the best hand. That's a lost cause now as we head to a multi-polar world where it does not hold all the cards. 

On the other hand it loves Chinese trade and so does Apple (for obvious reasons). Reducing reliance is one thing. De-coupling is another.

There is growing consensus that the only thing that has prevented the Ukraine situation from escalating completely out of control is precisely the globalised supply chain. That is somewhat ironic given the Hawk nature of certain elements within the US government. 

The US is somewhat schizophrenic depending on who is in government. 

Take 5G and Huawei. 

Trump put his boot down on Boris Johnson's head to get him to buckle on that. That was easy seeing as he had a Brexit toecap in the boot. But the same Trump was perfectly willing to see the UAE forge ahead with its Huawei ties as long as a multi-billion dollar F-35/Drone sale went ahead. So much for national security!

It was Biden who eventually put an ultimatum on the table with the 'Huawei or us' demands. 

Well, that backfired in spectacular fashion when the UAE canceled the sale, intensified ties with Huawei and purchased French and Chinese jets/drones instead. Ooops!

It just goes to show you can't have your cake and eat it. 

Truth be told, the word 'cancel' is perhaps overstating things. It's more likely the UAE is simply waiting to see who occupies the White House next time around. No doubt Tim Cook is also looking at things in a similar fashion (with a view to potential US anti trust policy too). 

Also, Trump set off a cascade of events whereby 'weaponisation' of US IP 'post sale' set alarm bells ringing around the global supply chain and you can be sure that it is now scrambling to eradicate US technology dependencies to protect itself from the extraterritorial 'sanctions' that have put a stranglehold on normal business operations in sovereign states. 

For EDA in chip design for example, I know for a fact that one of the big three US players would rather see its license keys hacked, and for 'sanctioned' companies to use the software without paying for it because the alternative is the creation of new players who will ultimately challenge its dominant position. 

Unfortunately, those new players have already been created so it's just a question of time now. The damage is done. 

Huawei is going to reveal a new programming language this year and some sketchy rumors point to it being based on Chinese instead of English. The 'official' reason for its existence is to facilitate coding between HarmonyOS and Euler but more will be read into it than that and I can see why if it turns out to be in Chinese. Only rumours at this point though. 

That is what 'decoupling' brings. Short term gain. Long term pain. 

In all this geopolitical mess, Apple is simply vying for its own business interests which is normal and very wise. Political tensions have caused it untold stress over the last few years and Covid has added yet more stress. It has literally been hanging by a thread in China for three full years now with very probably its only ('trump'?) card being that supposed multi-billion dollar deal with the Chinese government. 

Who knows if another 'secret' deal is being mulled over as we speak? 

In the meantime, the RCEP has gone live representing the largest free trade deal in history (US not part of it of course) and the global supply chain remains intact even as certain blocs seek to reduce reliance in specific areas. The EU for example is said to rely on China for 103 key industrial areas and projections say it could take up to 20 years to change that. The US is trying to reduce dependence on Chinese rare earths and processing, but once again, there is talk that that might be almost impossible to achieve. 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/18/eu-to-step-up-indo-pacific-defence-presence-over-china-fears-and-ukraine-example?CMP=share_btn_tw

The European Union has resolved to step up its defence strategy in the Indo-Pacific region in light of fears about China’s growing presence and concerns for the international order sparked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

“Our motto is always to cooperate whenever possible, but to defend whenever necessary as well,” said Gabriele Visentin, the EU’s special envoy to the Indo-Pacific. “It’s not directed against a country or another – it’s a way of enhancing our capacity and our credibility in terms of defending our interests.”

The deal that shocked the world: inside the China-Solomons security pact

Read more

Visentin said there was no evidence to suggest a war was imminent in the region – which covers a vast sweep of the globe from the east coast of Africa to the Pacific island countries – but the EU was concerned the “multilateral rules-based order will not be fully respected”.

“The pricetag that has been put on the breach of the multilateral rules-based order is quite high. It’s surely a signal to others who might wish to break the multilateral order in such a violent way, well, then they know what they can encounter.”

China is viewed as the biggest such threat in the region. Visentin said China was seen as “a partner, a competitor and a rival” by the EU.

Yeah, who would imagine that the EU is concerned about China...

How did that actually work out with Russia? It's almost like the EU made a 180 degree turn in how it deals with autocracy, and surely, China is an autocracy. ---

 Have you forgotten those 103 industrial dependencies and the up to 20 years to change them already? 

Do you think the EU-China trade deal won't go ahead at some point? 

Do you think, in general trade terms, Russia has the same influence/importance as China? 

tmay

avon b7 said:

tmay said:

avon b7 said:

tmay said:

avon b7 said:

tmay said:

avon b7 said:

JWSC said:

waveparticle said:

lkrupp said:

Western manufacturers like Apple dug themselves into this pit of doing business with a totalitarian state for the cheap labor and massive human resources it provides. Climbing out of this pit is going to be a very time consuming and difficult task that will take years if not decades to accomplish. So get ready, people, for the long haul of reduced production, supply chain backups, political shenanigans. Be prepared to wait months for your precious iPhones and Macs to arrive.

Wrong! China created the global supply chain in the last forty years. You mix up the cause and effect. 

The global corporations of the United States laid the foundations of the Chinese rise. Without the United States, China would be a shadow of itself today.

China is now strong enough to go it alone. And they’ll need to as the western world begins to reassess its reliance on totalitarian states.  We can all thank Putin for the wake up call.

At the end of the day, the sole reason for US efforts against China is to hamper its technological advancement and stop it gaining influence around the world. 

Donald Trump started a trade war with China because the US wanted more trade with China, not less. 

The way the US has gone about achieving those goals is hamfisted and self damaging, serving only to accelerate the inevitable move to greater self sufficiency by China. 

Russia and Covid/chip shortages may have muddied things up a bit but there have been no major gains for anyone. We just know that China is pushing harder to reach its goals even sooner. 

It is said that Apple had a multi billion dollar deal with the Chinese government which would be a case of business logic and probably made sense at the time. Diversification is always the route I would choose and I've long criticised Apple for putting all its eggs in the TSMC basket, for example. 

It was always just an earthquake (or the natural disaster of your choice) away from everything falling apart, but you take risks knowing what's at stake. 

Uh, no, not the sole reason, but you are correct that stopping China from gaining influence and denying the existing rules of order is certainly part of that. 

Given that Russia, an autocracy that is transitioning to a dictatorship, invaded Ukraine, for whatever the fuck reason that they state on any given day, it behooves the West to put National Security over mercantilism, such that neither Russia, nor China, is able to use Western technology for weapons. That also means that the West can not rely on Russia or China for any part of any supply chain that is essential for the West's National Security. We've already seen what happens when the West relies on China for PPE during COVID 19, and what happens when the EU is dependent on Russian energy.

In the meantime, it appears as well that China is transitioning from an autocracy to a dictatorship, evidenced by their zero COVID strategy, but we won't know the results of that for some time, which would be indicated by Xi getting yet another term this fall. 

Expect the West to restructure supply chains out of China elsewhere to increase resilience.

Not relying on anyone for national security is a universal goal for everyone. Not only the West. 

The US is trying to impede China from reaching technological parity with it and reduce its influence. That is all. Something that is impossible. It is the sole reason for its efforts.

It wants a 'unipolar' world where it always has the best hand. That's a lost cause now as we head to a multi-polar world where it does not hold all the cards. 

On the other hand it loves Chinese trade and so does Apple (for obvious reasons). Reducing reliance is one thing. De-coupling is another.

There is growing consensus that the only thing that has prevented the Ukraine situation from escalating completely out of control is precisely the globalised supply chain. That is somewhat ironic given the Hawk nature of certain elements within the US government. 

The US is somewhat schizophrenic depending on who is in government. 

Take 5G and Huawei. 

Trump put his boot down on Boris Johnson's head to get him to buckle on that. That was easy seeing as he had a Brexit toecap in the boot. But the same Trump was perfectly willing to see the UAE forge ahead with its Huawei ties as long as a multi-billion dollar F-35/Drone sale went ahead. So much for national security!

It was Biden who eventually put an ultimatum on the table with the 'Huawei or us' demands. 

Well, that backfired in spectacular fashion when the UAE canceled the sale, intensified ties with Huawei and purchased French and Chinese jets/drones instead. Ooops!

It just goes to show you can't have your cake and eat it. 

Truth be told, the word 'cancel' is perhaps overstating things. It's more likely the UAE is simply waiting to see who occupies the White House next time around. No doubt Tim Cook is also looking at things in a similar fashion (with a view to potential US anti trust policy too). 

Also, Trump set off a cascade of events whereby 'weaponisation' of US IP 'post sale' set alarm bells ringing around the global supply chain and you can be sure that it is now scrambling to eradicate US technology dependencies to protect itself from the extraterritorial 'sanctions' that have put a stranglehold on normal business operations in sovereign states. 

For EDA in chip design for example, I know for a fact that one of the big three US players would rather see its license keys hacked, and for 'sanctioned' companies to use the software without paying for it because the alternative is the creation of new players who will ultimately challenge its dominant position. 

Unfortunately, those new players have already been created so it's just a question of time now. The damage is done. 

Huawei is going to reveal a new programming language this year and some sketchy rumors point to it being based on Chinese instead of English. The 'official' reason for its existence is to facilitate coding between HarmonyOS and Euler but more will be read into it than that and I can see why if it turns out to be in Chinese. Only rumours at this point though. 

That is what 'decoupling' brings. Short term gain. Long term pain. 

In all this geopolitical mess, Apple is simply vying for its own business interests which is normal and very wise. Political tensions have caused it untold stress over the last few years and Covid has added yet more stress. It has literally been hanging by a thread in China for three full years now with very probably its only ('trump'?) card being that supposed multi-billion dollar deal with the Chinese government. 

Who knows if another 'secret' deal is being mulled over as we speak? 

In the meantime, the RCEP has gone live representing the largest free trade deal in history (US not part of it of course) and the global supply chain remains intact even as certain blocs seek to reduce reliance in specific areas. The EU for example is said to rely on China for 103 key industrial areas and projections say it could take up to 20 years to change that. The US is trying to reduce dependence on Chinese rare earths and processing, but once again, there is talk that that might be almost impossible to achieve. 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/18/eu-to-step-up-indo-pacific-defence-presence-over-china-fears-and-ukraine-example?CMP=share_btn_tw

The European Union has resolved to step up its defence strategy in the Indo-Pacific region in light of fears about China’s growing presence and concerns for the international order sparked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

“Our motto is always to cooperate whenever possible, but to defend whenever necessary as well,” said Gabriele Visentin, the EU’s special envoy to the Indo-Pacific. “It’s not directed against a country or another – it’s a way of enhancing our capacity and our credibility in terms of defending our interests.”

The deal that shocked the world: inside the China-Solomons security pact

Read more

Visentin said there was no evidence to suggest a war was imminent in the region – which covers a vast sweep of the globe from the east coast of Africa to the Pacific island countries – but the EU was concerned the “multilateral rules-based order will not be fully respected”.

“The pricetag that has been put on the breach of the multilateral rules-based order is quite high. It’s surely a signal to others who might wish to break the multilateral order in such a violent way, well, then they know what they can encounter.”

China is viewed as the biggest such threat in the region. Visentin said China was seen as “a partner, a competitor and a rival” by the EU.

Yeah, who would imagine that the EU is concerned about China...

How did that actually work out with Russia? It's almost like the EU made a 180 degree turn in how it deals with autocracy, and surely, China is an autocracy.

---

 Have you forgotten those 103 industrial dependencies and the up to 20 years to change them already? 

Do you think the EU-China trade deal won't go ahead at some point? 

Do you think, in general trade terms, Russia has the same influence/importance as China? 


Do you think, in long term military and national security, that Russia is a greater threat to the world, especially the Indo Pacific region, than China is? 

Of course you do, but the West certainly doesn't, and I certainly don't.

Russia has an economy on the scale of Spain or Italy, but its military power is much greater than that would indicate, and it is second only to the U.S. as a nuclear power. It's a failing military power, as seen everyday in Ukraine

China has an economy that is two thirds the size of the U.S. in GDP, and as China is rapidly militarizing, including expansion of its nuclear arsenal, so of course China is the larger threat in the long term. 

I prefer the existing rules of order, that allowed the Global economy to take off. China does not. You seem more interested in commerce with China than concerned about its autocratic government. At least the EU is now coming around to that same threat.

avon b7

tmay said:

avon b7 said:

tmay said:

avon b7 said:

tmay said:

avon b7 said:

tmay said:

avon b7 said:

JWSC said:

waveparticle said:

lkrupp said:

Western manufacturers like Apple dug themselves into this pit of doing business with a totalitarian state for the cheap labor and massive human resources it provides. Climbing out of this pit is going to be a very time consuming and difficult task that will take years if not decades to accomplish. So get ready, people, for the long haul of reduced production, supply chain backups, political shenanigans. Be prepared to wait months for your precious iPhones and Macs to arrive.

Wrong! China created the global supply chain in the last forty years. You mix up the cause and effect. 

The global corporations of the United States laid the foundations of the Chinese rise. Without the United States, China would be a shadow of itself today.

China is now strong enough to go it alone. And they’ll need to as the western world begins to reassess its reliance on totalitarian states.  We can all thank Putin for the wake up call.

At the end of the day, the sole reason for US efforts against China is to hamper its technological advancement and stop it gaining influence around the world. 

Donald Trump started a trade war with China because the US wanted more trade with China, not less. 

The way the US has gone about achieving those goals is hamfisted and self damaging, serving only to accelerate the inevitable move to greater self sufficiency by China. 

Russia and Covid/chip shortages may have muddied things up a bit but there have been no major gains for anyone. We just know that China is pushing harder to reach its goals even sooner. 

It is said that Apple had a multi billion dollar deal with the Chinese government which would be a case of business logic and probably made sense at the time. Diversification is always the route I would choose and I've long criticised Apple for putting all its eggs in the TSMC basket, for example. 

It was always just an earthquake (or the natural disaster of your choice) away from everything falling apart, but you take risks knowing what's at stake. 

Uh, no, not the sole reason, but you are correct that stopping China from gaining influence and denying the existing rules of order is certainly part of that. 

Given that Russia, an autocracy that is transitioning to a dictatorship, invaded Ukraine, for whatever the fuck reason that they state on any given day, it behooves the West to put National Security over mercantilism, such that neither Russia, nor China, is able to use Western technology for weapons. That also means that the West can not rely on Russia or China for any part of any supply chain that is essential for the West's National Security. We've already seen what happens when the West relies on China for PPE during COVID 19, and what happens when the EU is dependent on Russian energy.

In the meantime, it appears as well that China is transitioning from an autocracy to a dictatorship, evidenced by their zero COVID strategy, but we won't know the results of that for some time, which would be indicated by Xi getting yet another term this fall. 

Expect the West to restructure supply chains out of China elsewhere to increase resilience.

Not relying on anyone for national security is a universal goal for everyone. Not only the West. 

The US is trying to impede China from reaching technological parity with it and reduce its influence. That is all. Something that is impossible. It is the sole reason for its efforts.

It wants a 'unipolar' world where it always has the best hand. That's a lost cause now as we head to a multi-polar world where it does not hold all the cards. 

On the other hand it loves Chinese trade and so does Apple (for obvious reasons). Reducing reliance is one thing. De-coupling is another.

There is growing consensus that the only thing that has prevented the Ukraine situation from escalating completely out of control is precisely the globalised supply chain. That is somewhat ironic given the Hawk nature of certain elements within the US government. 

The US is somewhat schizophrenic depending on who is in government. 

Take 5G and Huawei. 

Trump put his boot down on Boris Johnson's head to get him to buckle on that. That was easy seeing as he had a Brexit toecap in the boot. But the same Trump was perfectly willing to see the UAE forge ahead with its Huawei ties as long as a multi-billion dollar F-35/Drone sale went ahead. So much for national security!

It was Biden who eventually put an ultimatum on the table with the 'Huawei or us' demands. 

Well, that backfired in spectacular fashion when the UAE canceled the sale, intensified ties with Huawei and purchased French and Chinese jets/drones instead. Ooops!

It just goes to show you can't have your cake and eat it. 

Truth be told, the word 'cancel' is perhaps overstating things. It's more likely the UAE is simply waiting to see who occupies the White House next time around. No doubt Tim Cook is also looking at things in a similar fashion (with a view to potential US anti trust policy too). 

Also, Trump set off a cascade of events whereby 'weaponisation' of US IP 'post sale' set alarm bells ringing around the global supply chain and you can be sure that it is now scrambling to eradicate US technology dependencies to protect itself from the extraterritorial 'sanctions' that have put a stranglehold on normal business operations in sovereign states. 

For EDA in chip design for example, I know for a fact that one of the big three US players would rather see its license keys hacked, and for 'sanctioned' companies to use the software without paying for it because the alternative is the creation of new players who will ultimately challenge its dominant position. 

Unfortunately, those new players have already been created so it's just a question of time now. The damage is done. 

Huawei is going to reveal a new programming language this year and some sketchy rumors point to it being based on Chinese instead of English. The 'official' reason for its existence is to facilitate coding between HarmonyOS and Euler but more will be read into it than that and I can see why if it turns out to be in Chinese. Only rumours at this point though. 

That is what 'decoupling' brings. Short term gain. Long term pain. 

In all this geopolitical mess, Apple is simply vying for its own business interests which is normal and very wise. Political tensions have caused it untold stress over the last few years and Covid has added yet more stress. It has literally been hanging by a thread in China for three full years now with very probably its only ('trump'?) card being that supposed multi-billion dollar deal with the Chinese government. 

Who knows if another 'secret' deal is being mulled over as we speak? 

In the meantime, the RCEP has gone live representing the largest free trade deal in history (US not part of it of course) and the global supply chain remains intact even as certain blocs seek to reduce reliance in specific areas. The EU for example is said to rely on China for 103 key industrial areas and projections say it could take up to 20 years to change that. The US is trying to reduce dependence on Chinese rare earths and processing, but once again, there is talk that that might be almost impossible to achieve. 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/18/eu-to-step-up-indo-pacific-defence-presence-over-china-fears-and-ukraine-example?CMP=share_btn_tw

The European Union has resolved to step up its defence strategy in the Indo-Pacific region in light of fears about China’s growing presence and concerns for the international order sparked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

“Our motto is always to cooperate whenever possible, but to defend whenever necessary as well,” said Gabriele Visentin, the EU’s special envoy to the Indo-Pacific. “It’s not directed against a country or another – it’s a way of enhancing our capacity and our credibility in terms of defending our interests.”

The deal that shocked the world: inside the China-Solomons security pact

Read more

Visentin said there was no evidence to suggest a war was imminent in the region – which covers a vast sweep of the globe from the east coast of Africa to the Pacific island countries – but the EU was concerned the “multilateral rules-based order will not be fully respected”.

“The pricetag that has been put on the breach of the multilateral rules-based order is quite high. It’s surely a signal to others who might wish to break the multilateral order in such a violent way, well, then they know what they can encounter.”

China is viewed as the biggest such threat in the region. Visentin said China was seen as “a partner, a competitor and a rival” by the EU.

Yeah, who would imagine that the EU is concerned about China...

How did that actually work out with Russia? It's almost like the EU made a 180 degree turn in how it deals with autocracy, and surely, China is an autocracy.

---

 Have you forgotten those 103 industrial dependencies and the up to 20 years to change them already? 

Do you think the EU-China trade deal won't go ahead at some point? 

Do you think, in general trade terms, Russia has the same influence/importance as China? 

Do you think, in long term military and national security, that Russia is a greater threat to the world, especially the Indo Pacific region, than China is? 

Of course you don't, but the West certainly does, and I certainly do.

Russia has an economy on the scale of Spain or Italy, but its military power is much greater than that would indicate, and it is second only to the U.S. as a nuclear power. It's a failing military power, as seen everyday in Ukraine

China has an economy that is two thirds the size of the U.S. in GDP, and as China is rapidly militarizing, including expansion of its nuclear arsenal, so of course China is the larger threat in the long term. 

I prefer the existing rules of order, that allowed the Global economy to take off. China does not. You seem more interested in commerce with China than concerned about its autocratic government. At least the EU is now coming around to that same threat. Yeah. Commerce. 

Try taking a wider view of world realities. 

Look at the importance and sourcing of raw, processed materials and chemicals.

Look at their impact on energy production, health, crops, manufacturing...

Look at how important China is in all of that and you see why commerce with China is so important and why no one (not even the US) has any plan to stop doing business with China. Not only China of course. Did you know that the EU sources 98% of its borate from Turkey? How's that for a dependency?

Try to hunt down a very detailed working document from the EU (from 2021) on strategic dependencies (off the top of my head I can't remember the full title) and you'll begin to understand the importance of commerce and global supply chains.

I'm not a great fan of Tim Cook but I know he understands the importance of commerce with China. Not surprising though, seeing as even Trump understood that too. 

tmay

avon b7 said:

tmay said:

avon b7 said:

tmay said:

avon b7 said:

tmay said:

avon b7 said:

tmay said:

avon b7 said:

JWSC said:

waveparticle said:

lkrupp said:

Western manufacturers like Apple dug themselves into this pit of doing business with a totalitarian state for the cheap labor and massive human resources it provides. Climbing out of this pit is going to be a very time consuming and difficult task that will take years if not decades to accomplish. So get ready, people, for the long haul of reduced production, supply chain backups, political shenanigans. Be prepared to wait months for your precious iPhones and Macs to arrive.

Wrong! China created the global supply chain in the last forty years. You mix up the cause and effect. 

The global corporations of the United States laid the foundations of the Chinese rise. Without the United States, China would be a shadow of itself today.

China is now strong enough to go it alone. And they’ll need to as the western world begins to reassess its reliance on totalitarian states.  We can all thank Putin for the wake up call.

At the end of the day, the sole reason for US efforts against China is to hamper its technological advancement and stop it gaining influence around the world. 

Donald Trump started a trade war with China because the US wanted more trade with China, not less. 

The way the US has gone about achieving those goals is hamfisted and self damaging, serving only to accelerate the inevitable move to greater self sufficiency by China. 

Russia and Covid/chip shortages may have muddied things up a bit but there have been no major gains for anyone. We just know that China is pushing harder to reach its goals even sooner. 

It is said that Apple had a multi billion dollar deal with the Chinese government which would be a case of business logic and probably made sense at the time. Diversification is always the route I would choose and I've long criticised Apple for putting all its eggs in the TSMC basket, for example. 

It was always just an earthquake (or the natural disaster of your choice) away from everything falling apart, but you take risks knowing what's at stake. 

Uh, no, not the sole reason, but you are correct that stopping China from gaining influence and denying the existing rules of order is certainly part of that. 

Given that Russia, an autocracy that is transitioning to a dictatorship, invaded Ukraine, for whatever the fuck reason that they state on any given day, it behooves the West to put National Security over mercantilism, such that neither Russia, nor China, is able to use Western technology for weapons. That also means that the West can not rely on Russia or China for any part of any supply chain that is essential for the West's National Security. We've already seen what happens when the West relies on China for PPE during COVID 19, and what happens when the EU is dependent on Russian energy.

In the meantime, it appears as well that China is transitioning from an autocracy to a dictatorship, evidenced by their zero COVID strategy, but we won't know the results of that for some time, which would be indicated by Xi getting yet another term this fall. 

Expect the West to restructure supply chains out of China elsewhere to increase resilience.

Not relying on anyone for national security is a universal goal for everyone. Not only the West. 

The US is trying to impede China from reaching technological parity with it and reduce its influence. That is all. Something that is impossible. It is the sole reason for its efforts.

It wants a 'unipolar' world where it always has the best hand. That's a lost cause now as we head to a multi-polar world where it does not hold all the cards. 

On the other hand it loves Chinese trade and so does Apple (for obvious reasons). Reducing reliance is one thing. De-coupling is another.

There is growing consensus that the only thing that has prevented the Ukraine situation from escalating completely out of control is precisely the globalised supply chain. That is somewhat ironic given the Hawk nature of certain elements within the US government. 

The US is somewhat schizophrenic depending on who is in government. 

Take 5G and Huawei. 

Trump put his boot down on Boris Johnson's head to get him to buckle on that. That was easy seeing as he had a Brexit toecap in the boot. But the same Trump was perfectly willing to see the UAE forge ahead with its Huawei ties as long as a multi-billion dollar F-35/Drone sale went ahead. So much for national security!

It was Biden who eventually put an ultimatum on the table with the 'Huawei or us' demands. 

Well, that backfired in spectacular fashion when the UAE canceled the sale, intensified ties with Huawei and purchased French and Chinese jets/drones instead. Ooops!

It just goes to show you can't have your cake and eat it. 

Truth be told, the word 'cancel' is perhaps overstating things. It's more likely the UAE is simply waiting to see who occupies the White House next time around. No doubt Tim Cook is also looking at things in a similar fashion (with a view to potential US anti trust policy too). 

Also, Trump set off a cascade of events whereby 'weaponisation' of US IP 'post sale' set alarm bells ringing around the global supply chain and you can be sure that it is now scrambling to eradicate US technology dependencies to protect itself from the extraterritorial 'sanctions' that have put a stranglehold on normal business operations in sovereign states. 

For EDA in chip design for example, I know for a fact that one of the big three US players would rather see its license keys hacked, and for 'sanctioned' companies to use the software without paying for it because the alternative is the creation of new players who will ultimately challenge its dominant position. 

Unfortunately, those new players have already been created so it's just a question of time now. The damage is done. 

Huawei is going to reveal a new programming language this year and some sketchy rumors point to it being based on Chinese instead of English. The 'official' reason for its existence is to facilitate coding between HarmonyOS and Euler but more will be read into it than that and I can see why if it turns out to be in Chinese. Only rumours at this point though. 

That is what 'decoupling' brings. Short term gain. Long term pain. 

In all this geopolitical mess, Apple is simply vying for its own business interests which is normal and very wise. Political tensions have caused it untold stress over the last few years and Covid has added yet more stress. It has literally been hanging by a thread in China for three full years now with very probably its only ('trump'?) card being that supposed multi-billion dollar deal with the Chinese government. 

Who knows if another 'secret' deal is being mulled over as we speak? 

In the meantime, the RCEP has gone live representing the largest free trade deal in history (US not part of it of course) and the global supply chain remains intact even as certain blocs seek to reduce reliance in specific areas. The EU for example is said to rely on China for 103 key industrial areas and projections say it could take up to 20 years to change that. The US is trying to reduce dependence on Chinese rare earths and processing, but once again, there is talk that that might be almost impossible to achieve. 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/18/eu-to-step-up-indo-pacific-defence-presence-over-china-fears-and-ukraine-example?CMP=share_btn_tw

The European Union has resolved to step up its defence strategy in the Indo-Pacific region in light of fears about China’s growing presence and concerns for the international order sparked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

“Our motto is always to cooperate whenever possible, but to defend whenever necessary as well,” said Gabriele Visentin, the EU’s special envoy to the Indo-Pacific. “It’s not directed against a country or another – it’s a way of enhancing our capacity and our credibility in terms of defending our interests.”

The deal that shocked the world: inside the China-Solomons security pact

Read more

Visentin said there was no evidence to suggest a war was imminent in the region – which covers a vast sweep of the globe from the east coast of Africa to the Pacific island countries – but the EU was concerned the “multilateral rules-based order will not be fully respected”.

“The pricetag that has been put on the breach of the multilateral rules-based order is quite high. It’s surely a signal to others who might wish to break the multilateral order in such a violent way, well, then they know what they can encounter.”

China is viewed as the biggest such threat in the region. Visentin said China was seen as “a partner, a competitor and a rival” by the EU.

Yeah, who would imagine that the EU is concerned about China...

How did that actually work out with Russia? It's almost like the EU made a 180 degree turn in how it deals with autocracy, and surely, China is an autocracy.

---

 Have you forgotten those 103 industrial dependencies and the up to 20 years to change them already? 

Do you think the EU-China trade deal won't go ahead at some point? 

Do you think, in general trade terms, Russia has the same influence/importance as China? 

Do you think, in long term military and national security, that Russia is a greater threat to the world, especially the Indo Pacific region, than China is? 

Of course you don't, but the West certainly does, and I certainly do.

Russia has an economy on the scale of Spain or Italy, but its military power is much greater than that would indicate, and it is second only to the U.S. as a nuclear power. It's a failing military power, as seen everyday in Ukraine

China has an economy that is two thirds the size of the U.S. in GDP, and as China is rapidly militarizing, including expansion of its nuclear arsenal, so of course China is the larger threat in the long term. 

I prefer the existing rules of order, that allowed the Global economy to take off. China does not. You seem more interested in commerce with China than concerned about its autocratic government. At least the EU is now coming around to that same threat.

Yeah. Commerce. 

Try taking a wider view of world realities. 

Look at the importance and sourcing of raw, processed materials and chemicals.

Look at their impact on energy production, health, crops, manufacturing...

Look at how important China is in all of that and you see why commerce with China is so important and why no one (not even the US) has any plan to stop doing business with China. Not only China of course. Did you know that the EU sources 98% of its borate from Turkey? How's that for a dependency?

Try to hunt down a very detailed working document from the EU (from 2021) on strategic dependencies (off the top of my head I can't remember the full title) and you'll begin to understand the importance of commerce and global supply chains.

I'm not a great fan of Tim Cook but I know he understands the importance of commerce with China. Not surprising though, seeing as even Trump understood that too. 


I'm aware of supply chains, and have noted that the pandemic has shown that many supplies chains lack resilience, and hence, the West will be moving supply chains out of China.

Russia has shown to the EU and the world, what happens when you allow an autocratic country with a military strategy of massive destruction. That the EU has been pandering to Russia for decades, is now being reaevaluated. At the same time, so is the EU's connection with China.
 
https://www.airforcemag.com/in-cnas-led-taiwan-wargame-no-air-superiority-no-quick-win/

Wargaming; Red team (China) attacks Taiwan over declaration of independence circa 2027.

Blue Team, (U.S. plus allies) responds.

You seem to be unable to understand the concept to human rights in all this; it's all about commerce to you.