How Apple could approach a folding iPhone

124»

Comments

  • Reply 61 of 65
    avon b7avon b7 Posts: 8,023member
    eriamjh said:
    y2an said:
    IMHO folding phones are too thick. A successful folding phone would be about as thick, folded, as an iPhone. That’s tough. 
    I think this sums it up.  Too thick.  Whether it’s current iPhone plus size folds in half the short way or double the size and folds in half the long way.   

    It’s just too thick.   

    I think we’re more likely to see a folding iPad than a folded phone.   
    Thickness is going to be relative and very personal in terms of preference. 

    Obviously, getting that extra screen space (and sometimes extra screen) has a trade-off in thickness when folded. But you can also use the main cameras for better photo/vídeo selfies etc. 

    Like the line,  'how long is a piece of string? ' we also have 'how thick is a phone?' 

    The latest Huawei foldable comes in at 11.1mm. For reference, that is about the same thickness as some iPhones in a case. 

    For some it will be a deal breaker (as it already is for some people with regular phones). For others it will be a non-issue. 

    The other side of the coin is that that same phone is just 5.4mm thick when folded out (excluding the thin grip which adds stability in the hand). Far thinner than regular phones. 

    For thickness (and weight) we are already seeing folding devices almost as thin and light as regular phones. There is probably room to shave more off both metrics in the near future. Especially with inward folding phones that have two screens. 

    I think most people would prefer to reduce overall size  of tablets and larger phones through folding, than having a fixed screen size even if the resulting from factor makes it slightly thicker. 

    Of course, that is omitting other considerations like creases, hinges, bezels, coatings etc as all of those aspects will improve over time. Then again, with some of the latest folding phones, those aspects have already improved. To the point that with some, you have to go out of your way to actually see the crease. 




    muthuk_vanalingam
  • Reply 62 of 65
    tmaytmay Posts: 6,455member
    avon b7 said:
    eriamjh said:
    y2an said:
    IMHO folding phones are too thick. A successful folding phone would be about as thick, folded, as an iPhone. That’s tough. 
    I think this sums it up.  Too thick.  Whether it’s current iPhone plus size folds in half the short way or double the size and folds in half the long way.   

    It’s just too thick.   

    I think we’re more likely to see a folding iPad than a folded phone.   
    Thickness is going to be relative and very personal in terms of preference. 

    Obviously, getting that extra screen space (and sometimes extra screen) has a trade-off in thickness when folded. But you can also use the main cameras for better photo/vídeo selfies etc. 

    Like the line,  'how long is a piece of string? ' we also have 'how thick is a phone?' 

    The latest Huawei foldable comes in at 11.1mm. For reference, that is about the same thickness as some iPhones in a case. 

    For some it will be a deal breaker (as it already is for some people with regular phones). For others it will be a non-issue. 

    The other side of the coin is that that same phone is just 5.4mm thick when folded out (excluding the thin grip which adds stability in the hand). Far thinner than regular phones. 

    For thickness (and weight) we are already seeing folding devices almost as thin and light as regular phones. There is probably room to shave more off both metrics in the near future. Especially with inward folding phones that have two screens. 

    I think most people would prefer to reduce overall size  of tablets and larger phones through folding, than having a fixed screen size even if the resulting from factor makes it slightly thicker. 

    Of course, that is omitting other considerations like creases, hinges, bezels, coatings etc as all of those aspects will improve over time. Then again, with some of the latest folding phones, those aspects have already improved. To the point that with some, you have to go out of your way to actually see the crease. 




    An anecdote;

    I went to a BBQ at a friend's in Northern Nevada. His daughter's boyfriend had a Samsung Foldable, I don't know which model, but folded, it looked to be twice as thick as an iPhone. Very first foldable that I have seen in the wild. Of note, most everyone else at the BBQ had iPhones. 

    Meanwhile, the boyfriend's two daughter's, probably 6 and 8 y.o., were chatting on about the Samsung Flip phone, as their choice for their first phone.

    I can see a use case for "flip" phones that makes sense to market, but the unit sales of foldable's after three years, is no more that 3 to 5 million units per year? Meh, that's not much of a market, and at best a percentage point or two of all smartphones.

    I'm having difficulty today, just as I did when foldables were introduced, understanding the hype, and I would still be concerned about the reliability of the screen.


  • Reply 63 of 65
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    eriamjh said:
    y2an said:
    IMHO folding phones are too thick. A successful folding phone would be about as thick, folded, as an iPhone. That’s tough. 
    I think this sums it up.  Too thick.  Whether it’s current iPhone plus size folds in half the short way or double the size and folds in half the long way.   

    It’s just too thick.   

    I think we’re more likely to see a folding iPad than a folded phone.   
    Thickness is going to be relative and very personal in terms of preference. 

    Obviously, getting that extra screen space (and sometimes extra screen) has a trade-off in thickness when folded. But you can also use the main cameras for better photo/vídeo selfies etc. 

    Like the line,  'how long is a piece of string? ' we also have 'how thick is a phone?' 

    The latest Huawei foldable comes in at 11.1mm. For reference, that is about the same thickness as some iPhones in a case. 

    For some it will be a deal breaker (as it already is for some people with regular phones). For others it will be a non-issue. 

    The other side of the coin is that that same phone is just 5.4mm thick when folded out (excluding the thin grip which adds stability in the hand). Far thinner than regular phones. 

    For thickness (and weight) we are already seeing folding devices almost as thin and light as regular phones. There is probably room to shave more off both metrics in the near future. Especially with inward folding phones that have two screens. 

    I think most people would prefer to reduce overall size  of tablets and larger phones through folding, than having a fixed screen size even if the resulting from factor makes it slightly thicker. 

    Of course, that is omitting other considerations like creases, hinges, bezels, coatings etc as all of those aspects will improve over time. Then again, with some of the latest folding phones, those aspects have already improved. To the point that with some, you have to go out of your way to actually see the crease. 




    I can see a use case for "flip" phones that makes sense to market, but the unit sales of foldable's after three years, is no more that 3 to 5 million units per year? Meh, that's not much of a market, and at best a percentage point or two of all smartphones.

    I'm having difficulty today, just as I did when foldables were introduced, understanding the hype, and I would still be concerned about the reliability of the screen.
    Don't you think that "Price" has much to do with the unit sales of foldable phones so far (apart from concerns around reliability and wait and watch approach to make sure that it is a non-issue)? With the reliability becoming a non-issue, isn't it logical to think that the unit sales would be gradually increasing as prices of the flip/fold phones come down?

    Another point - Apple will launch the flip/fold iPhones when they are ready (the earliest that I think would be 2024) and will be having a great success with flip/fold iPhones in the coming years.
    edited August 2022
  • Reply 64 of 65
    tmaytmay Posts: 6,455member
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    eriamjh said:
    y2an said:
    IMHO folding phones are too thick. A successful folding phone would be about as thick, folded, as an iPhone. That’s tough. 
    I think this sums it up.  Too thick.  Whether it’s current iPhone plus size folds in half the short way or double the size and folds in half the long way.   

    It’s just too thick.   

    I think we’re more likely to see a folding iPad than a folded phone.   
    Thickness is going to be relative and very personal in terms of preference. 

    Obviously, getting that extra screen space (and sometimes extra screen) has a trade-off in thickness when folded. But you can also use the main cameras for better photo/vídeo selfies etc. 

    Like the line,  'how long is a piece of string? ' we also have 'how thick is a phone?' 

    The latest Huawei foldable comes in at 11.1mm. For reference, that is about the same thickness as some iPhones in a case. 

    For some it will be a deal breaker (as it already is for some people with regular phones). For others it will be a non-issue. 

    The other side of the coin is that that same phone is just 5.4mm thick when folded out (excluding the thin grip which adds stability in the hand). Far thinner than regular phones. 

    For thickness (and weight) we are already seeing folding devices almost as thin and light as regular phones. There is probably room to shave more off both metrics in the near future. Especially with inward folding phones that have two screens. 

    I think most people would prefer to reduce overall size  of tablets and larger phones through folding, than having a fixed screen size even if the resulting from factor makes it slightly thicker. 

    Of course, that is omitting other considerations like creases, hinges, bezels, coatings etc as all of those aspects will improve over time. Then again, with some of the latest folding phones, those aspects have already improved. To the point that with some, you have to go out of your way to actually see the crease. 




    I can see a use case for "flip" phones that makes sense to market, but the unit sales of foldable's after three years, is no more that 3 to 5 million units per year? Meh, that's not much of a market, and at best a percentage point or two of all smartphones.

    I'm having difficulty today, just as I did when foldables were introduced, understanding the hype, and I would still be concerned about the reliability of the screen.
    Don't you think that "Price" has much to do with the unit sales of foldable phones so far (apart from concerns around reliability and wait and watch approach to make sure that it is a non-issue)? With the reliability becoming a non-issue, isn't it logical to think that the unit sales would be gradually increasing as prices of the flip/fold phones come down?

    Another point - Apple will launch the flip/fold iPhones when they are ready (the earliest that I think would be 2024) and will be having a great success with flip/fold iPhones in the coming years.
    If price is a factor, and reliability is a non issue, then what you are really stating is that the value proposition of folding phones is minimal, otherwise, consumers would be going crazy for these, at least according to the hype. Myself, I believe that reliability is still considerably less than for other flagship phones, given hinge mechanisms, dust ingress and folding, relatively soft, screens. YMMV.

    Few people want to purchase a folding phone as they don't see the value in it. That may change in time, as you indicate, but today, the market is decidedly weak for folding phones. 
  • Reply 65 of 65
    avon b7avon b7 Posts: 8,023member
    tmay said:
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    eriamjh said:
    y2an said:
    IMHO folding phones are too thick. A successful folding phone would be about as thick, folded, as an iPhone. That’s tough. 
    I think this sums it up.  Too thick.  Whether it’s current iPhone plus size folds in half the short way or double the size and folds in half the long way.   

    It’s just too thick.   

    I think we’re more likely to see a folding iPad than a folded phone.   
    Thickness is going to be relative and very personal in terms of preference. 

    Obviously, getting that extra screen space (and sometimes extra screen) has a trade-off in thickness when folded. But you can also use the main cameras for better photo/vídeo selfies etc. 

    Like the line,  'how long is a piece of string? ' we also have 'how thick is a phone?' 

    The latest Huawei foldable comes in at 11.1mm. For reference, that is about the same thickness as some iPhones in a case. 

    For some it will be a deal breaker (as it already is for some people with regular phones). For others it will be a non-issue. 

    The other side of the coin is that that same phone is just 5.4mm thick when folded out (excluding the thin grip which adds stability in the hand). Far thinner than regular phones. 

    For thickness (and weight) we are already seeing folding devices almost as thin and light as regular phones. There is probably room to shave more off both metrics in the near future. Especially with inward folding phones that have two screens. 

    I think most people would prefer to reduce overall size  of tablets and larger phones through folding, than having a fixed screen size even if the resulting from factor makes it slightly thicker. 

    Of course, that is omitting other considerations like creases, hinges, bezels, coatings etc as all of those aspects will improve over time. Then again, with some of the latest folding phones, those aspects have already improved. To the point that with some, you have to go out of your way to actually see the crease. 




    I can see a use case for "flip" phones that makes sense to market, but the unit sales of foldable's after three years, is no more that 3 to 5 million units per year? Meh, that's not much of a market, and at best a percentage point or two of all smartphones.

    I'm having difficulty today, just as I did when foldables were introduced, understanding the hype, and I would still be concerned about the reliability of the screen.
    Don't you think that "Price" has much to do with the unit sales of foldable phones so far (apart from concerns around reliability and wait and watch approach to make sure that it is a non-issue)? With the reliability becoming a non-issue, isn't it logical to think that the unit sales would be gradually increasing as prices of the flip/fold phones come down?

    Another point - Apple will launch the flip/fold iPhones when they are ready (the earliest that I think would be 2024) and will be having a great success with flip/fold iPhones in the coming years.
    If price is a factor, and reliability is a non issue, then what you are really stating is that the value proposition of folding phones is minimal, otherwise, consumers would be going crazy for these, at least according to the hype. Myself, I believe that reliability is still considerably less than for other flagship phones, given hinge mechanisms, dust ingress and folding, relatively soft, screens. YMMV.

    Few people want to purchase a folding phone as they don't see the value in it. That may change in time, as you indicate, but today, the market is decidedly weak for folding phones. 
    Nothing so far has pointed to widespread reliability issues. That does not mean folding phones aren't delicate and require special care, though. 

    This is exactly the same as when some regular phones moved to glass front and back covers. They were more delicate (and still are) and needed a bit more protection. 

    Given folding phone prices in general, a market that is able to ship units in the millions is frankly remarkable and sales aren't slowing. Samsung has said it expects to break new records for shipments of folding phones with its latest generation phones. 

    Right now, a large part of the investment in folding phones is still in the material BOM and manufacturing side, as opposed to the onboard technology (cameras, sensors, SoCs...) because weight and durability are still key factors. 

    That is balancíng itself out slowly and when a tipping point is reached and folding phones hit the right price point, things will accelerate. One could argue that with flip phones that is already happening. My brother's entire family now use flip phones. 

    New offerings from other manufacturers are also coming to market and earning rave reviews (OPPO, Honor...). 

    As for the bulkiness of the Samsung Fold, I heard it was because Huawei had a patent on a fully folding phone. That was a bit weird to hear about but it came from a Huawei executive. Maybe tongue in cheek? No idea. 


    edited August 2022 muthuk_vanalingam
Sign In or Register to comment.