New MacBook Pro expected before end of 2022 with 5nm chips
Apple's upcoming 14-inch and 16-inch MacBook Pro models are set to be mass produced in the fourth quarter of 2022 with M2 chips possibly made using a 5nm process, according to Ming-Chi Kuo.
M2 Chipset
In a tweet on Monday, Kuo said that the upcoming 14-inch MacBook Pro and 16-inch MacBook Pro will enter mass production in Q4 2022. However, he cast doubt on rumors that the devices could sport chips built on TSMC's 3nm processes.
According to Kuo, TSMC has offered guidance that its 3nm process will contribute to its revenue in the first half of 2023. Although Apple is likely to be one of the first companies to get its hands on chips with the new process, Kuo take's TSMC's guidance as evidence that it won't be in 2022.
In other words, the 14-inch and 16-inch MacBook Pro chips, which will likely be M2 Pro and M2 Max, will be created using TSMC's existing 5nm advanced nodes.
Kuo's forecast here differs from other sources, including a report from the Taiwanese-based Commercial Times that indicated Apple would be using 3nm-based chips by the end of 2022.
According to the Commercial Times, TSMC's mass production of 3nm-based wafers will kick off in September. Given that Kuo expects MacBook Pro models to enter mass production in the fourth quarter, there's still a chance that the new models could use TSMC's latest technology.
Prior reports indicate that Apple will use the M2 Pro chip -- and possibly an M2 Max -- in its 14-inch MacBook Pro, 16-inch MacBook Pro, and Mac mini models later in 2022 or early 2023.
Read on AppleInsider
M2 Chipset
In a tweet on Monday, Kuo said that the upcoming 14-inch MacBook Pro and 16-inch MacBook Pro will enter mass production in Q4 2022. However, he cast doubt on rumors that the devices could sport chips built on TSMC's 3nm processes.
According to Kuo, TSMC has offered guidance that its 3nm process will contribute to its revenue in the first half of 2023. Although Apple is likely to be one of the first companies to get its hands on chips with the new process, Kuo take's TSMC's guidance as evidence that it won't be in 2022.
In other words, the 14-inch and 16-inch MacBook Pro chips, which will likely be M2 Pro and M2 Max, will be created using TSMC's existing 5nm advanced nodes.
Kuo's forecast here differs from other sources, including a report from the Taiwanese-based Commercial Times that indicated Apple would be using 3nm-based chips by the end of 2022.
According to the Commercial Times, TSMC's mass production of 3nm-based wafers will kick off in September. Given that Kuo expects MacBook Pro models to enter mass production in the fourth quarter, there's still a chance that the new models could use TSMC's latest technology.
Prior reports indicate that Apple will use the M2 Pro chip -- and possibly an M2 Max -- in its 14-inch MacBook Pro, 16-inch MacBook Pro, and Mac mini models later in 2022 or early 2023.
Read on AppleInsider
Comments
It’s not like Apple developed a M2 Max for the MacBooks and created another M2 Max for the desktops.
At the same time, I can't imagine that Apple would throw down volume SOC production for the Mac Pro or iMac Pro production on 3nm.
But if they did, it would be epic!
So it looks like 3nm is targeted for iPad Pro, MacBook Air and MacBook Pro updates, and later in the year, iPhone 15.
It would make more sense to have AR/VR glasses be the first product to get 3nm.
Nobody will be confused. Nobody will be “ripped” off. The more money someone spends, the less important the name of this or that feature becomes, and the more performance and features they buy.
[1] After its introduction soon for the new iPhone Pro and Apple Watch, Apple will also adopt a subscription model as an option for select Studio and Pro macOS and iPadOS devices with Apple Silicon.
[2] To do that, Apple needs to be able to produce new silicon at a regular pace, like they do for the iPhone. It doesn’t necessarily need to be annual, but it does need to be regular. I think, at any given moment, there will always be two generations available, with the subscriptions on the cutting edge.
https://www.gizchina.com/2022/01/13/tsmcs-revenue-in-2021-reached-56-8-billion-half-of-it-by-7nm-and-5nm-chips/
The higher-end Macbook Pros likely contribute under 20% of Mac revenue (under 6m units). This means for a single quarter, it's 1.5m units. 1.5m units x $100 chips ($50-200) would be $150m out of around $56b.
By comparison 250m iPhones is $12.5b.
TSMC saying 3nm wouldn't contribute to their revenue would still be accurate even if Apple used 3nm in their Pro Macs.
If they use 3nm for the Pro line this year, they wouldn't be able to update it to 2nm until 2025. However, if it gets an 18 month update cycle, it would be able to use 3nm enhanced in the middle somewhere.
A 5nm update this year would be 5NP, which they managed to get a 40% performance bump out of on iPhones. That kind of update wouldn't be too bad but 3nm would be a much nicer update and would make an especially good launch for the Mac Pro.
I suppose it could extend to an entry-level flagship like the MBA or iMac, but I don't see that. My assumption is the margins are tighter on those lower-end, higher-volume devices, and dealing with the turnover for each generation would be more trouble than it's worth. But what do I know?!
I think some of the same advantages apply to hardware subscriptions that apply to software subscriptions. The pressure to produce significant leaps between generations (to entice people to upgrade) is gone, and the developer can focus on introducing new features and updates more organically, instead of holding everything for the next upgrade. Apple Silicon will be more agile. It's not inconceivable we're already seeing this, if this rumor is right and M2 Pro+ are all on the enhanced N5P process instead of the delayed N3, then that could be evidence of that agility. Instead of being stuck waiting for the next big thing, Apple just moves on, with the enhancements that can be delivered on time. The subsequent N3 leap won't be as dramatic as it would have been without the intermediary step, but it doesn't matter to subscribers.
Their history is all about escaping the takeover of the government of mainland China, and the people of Taiwan are certainly not in favor of losing their freedoms.
China may very well become the number one economic power by 2030: sadly, the US is at the tail end of the cycle that happens with empires, civilizations that go bust. This is a recurring pattern that happens through time and space, and results in a reset of who is in power in all aspects in the region and/or the world.
I mean, unless Apple is that confident that 8 P cores at 5nm is what the 99.9% will ever need & paying for a premium for three years, there’s no need to compete whatsoever. Or these “news” just making them look slow.
I tracked down where I first heard about subscriptions, the root source is Gurman, back in March: https://www.macworld.com/article/626219/apple-hardware-subscription-service-rumors.html