Ming-Chi Kuo says iPhone production cut report is 'weird'

in iPhone
Disputing a new claim that Apple has cut iPhone 14 production down to iPhone 13 levels, analyst Ming-Chi Kuo says that this is what his research says was the plan all along.

Following a Bloomberg report that Apple is cutting around 6.7% of its orders for the iPhone 14 range, some analysts questioned the claim. Now Ming-Chi Kuo goes so far as to call it "a little bit weird."

Rumored Apple ditching iPhone production increase sounds a little bit weird to me. As I surveyed before, Apple had production switch plans from iPhone 14/14 Plus to iPhone 14 Pro/14 Pro Max/price-cut 13, but I didn't hear of any overall iPhone production increase plan.

-- (Ming-Chi Kuo) (@mingchikuo)

The earlier report claimed that Apple had been expecting demand for the iPhone 14 range to be better than that for its predecessor. Specifically, that it had ordered around six million more to be made during the second half of 2022.

According to Kuo, the idea that these extra orders were now cut back is spurious, because he doesn't believe Apple ever ordered the greater number.

The claim about cutting orders was specifically about the overall total of iPhone 14 models, including both the regular versions and the Pro ones. Kuo goes on to say that he maintains the Pro ones are so successful that Apple is ordering more of those, but that this needn't alter the overall production total.

"I reiterate my survey result that shipment forecasts of iPhone 14 Pro and Pro Max will increase by about 10%, benefiting the iPhone ASP/product mix for 4Q22," he continued. "However, the order increase for iPhone 14 Pro, 14 Pro Max, and price-cut 13 could offset the potential order cut of iPhone 14 and 14 Plus."

"The demand for iPhone 14 and 14 Plus is obviously lackluster," said Kuo. "So I expect total 2022/4Q22 iPhone shipments to be roughly aligned with consensus despite many people worrying about the recession," he concluded.

Read on AppleInsider


  • Reply 1 of 6
    This sounds closer to the truth. 
  • Reply 2 of 6
    I still think it's odd how people continue to try and determine sales of Apple products based on supply chain and orders. Apple has said time and time again this is not a good indicator of how well a product is or isn't selling. Nobody knows why Apple does what it does except Apple. 
  • Reply 3 of 6
    JP234JP234 Posts: 815member
    You know what I do when news like this hits the wire? I buy more Apple stock. And it has paid off big time. Just got back from a 2 week trip island hopping in Greece, paid for by the dividends from our shares.
    edited September 2022 scstrrfFileMakerFellerlolliverwatto_cobra
  • Reply 4 of 6
    lkrupplkrupp Posts: 10,348member
    Unfortunately the damage is done. AAPL took a big hit this morning. But as the dumb shits sell on rumors the smart ones buy so it works out.
  • Reply 5 of 6
    JP234JP234 Posts: 815member
    lkrupp said:
    Unfortunately the damage is done. AAPL took a big hit this morning. But as the dumb shits sell on rumors the smart ones buy so it works out.
    Apple is what I'd call a screaming buy right now. It may get even cheaper, given global volatility, but no one can predict the absolute bottom of the market. The smart play currently is to dollar cost average into Apple: contribute the same dollar amount every month. You'll get more shares when the price is low, and fewer when the price is high. And no one is going to go broke betting on Apple long term.
  • Reply 6 of 6
    Yup whoever made this ridiculous report of lowered iPhone 14 orders go viral just made a killing short-selling AAPL. The genius!
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