Excellent. Apple has the power to transform a laggard into a leader (see TSMC), so a decision like this by apple really matters. This is a great example of how more aggressive US policy can counter Xi’s anti-democracy crusade.
US policy won't change that angle.
It's important to remember that Trump's number one reason for starting a trade war with China was the trade defecit. It wanted to increase sales to China.
The other angle to what was going on was the rise of China as a technological competitor (and with all the cards to eventually trump the US).
Standard moves by standard rules weren't working so Trump began using executive orders to make things happen.
Apple is well aware of that possibility and probably chose to put any plans it had on hold so as to avoid problems down the line.
Once the China has eliminated US technology from the problem supply lines I expect Apple will try again.
In fact, I think there are multiple signs that Xi has actually weakened the capabilities of the Chinese juggernaut. So far, China’s power and general effectiveness are so great that these signs seem to have gone largely unnoticed, but I think they’re there. The three big ones are: Slowing growth, an international backlash against China, and missteps related to the Covid pandemic.
It’s time to consider the possibility that for all his self-aggrandizement, Xi Jinping is just not that competent of a leader.
Lots of people will disagree but it can't change the core facts (which most people actually agree on).
China is on an accelerated path of technological advancement. That is feared within the US and that is why we are seeing these extreme actions aimed at - slowing down - that progress.
Progress that cannot be stopped.
Apple wants to take advantage of part of that progress through the latest industrial revolution (digital) where China is sitting at the forefront (industrial 5G, advanced logistics, advanced manufacturing and distribution, decarbonisation etc). Digital is now everywhere but China has progressed further than anyone else.
Of course, it makes sense for a heavily Chinese dependent Apple to make fall back plans but China is key to Apple at every conceivable level.
You’re living in 2010
Hardly. We are on the cusp of some real technological advancements and Chinese companies are involved.
Some problems have been decades waiting for resolution. Getting over Shannon's law has been done (Huawei has brought the technical solution to market). Moving beyond von Neumann architecture has finally been achieved (Huawei again). Silicon based architectures are probably going to be replaced relatively soon (China is putting a lot of effort into that). Take a look at patent applications and approvals. China is right up there with the best of the best.
5G roll out and technical implementation plus services to run on them in industry. China again is way out in front.
AI, Quantum computing,...
It would not be crazy to think it isn't about China 'catching up' but China 'leapfrogging' most nations.
That is most definitely not 2010.
You are chronicling the output and achievements of the system put in place by Deng—they are the fruit of seeds sewn in the 20 years from about 1990 to about 2010. That is what Xi inherited and is now squandering. China is at a peak and is poised for a major decline.
When i say you’re living in the past, that’s what I mean. You’re measuring with great precision the current location of the puck without thinking about how it got here or where it’s going next.
Because of demographics China was always going to experience some slower growth and political stress . But Xi is making it vastly worse.
Excellent. Apple has the power to transform a laggard into a leader (see TSMC), so a decision like this by apple really matters. This is a great example of how more aggressive US policy can counter Xi’s anti-democracy crusade.
US policy won't change that angle.
It's important to remember that Trump's number one reason for starting a trade war with China was the trade defecit. It wanted to increase sales to China.
The other angle to what was going on was the rise of China as a technological competitor (and with all the cards to eventually trump the US).
Standard moves by standard rules weren't working so Trump began using executive orders to make things happen.
Apple is well aware of that possibility and probably chose to put any plans it had on hold so as to avoid problems down the line.
Once the China has eliminated US technology from the problem supply lines I expect Apple will try again.
In fact, I think there are multiple signs that Xi has actually weakened the capabilities of the Chinese juggernaut. So far, China’s power and general effectiveness are so great that these signs seem to have gone largely unnoticed, but I think they’re there. The three big ones are: Slowing growth, an international backlash against China, and missteps related to the Covid pandemic.
It’s time to consider the possibility that for all his self-aggrandizement, Xi Jinping is just not that competent of a leader.
Lots of people will disagree but it can't change the core facts (which most people actually agree on).
China is on an accelerated path of technological advancement. That is feared within the US and that is why we are seeing these extreme actions aimed at - slowing down - that progress.
Progress that cannot be stopped.
Apple wants to take advantage of part of that progress through the latest industrial revolution (digital) where China is sitting at the forefront (industrial 5G, advanced logistics, advanced manufacturing and distribution, decarbonisation etc). Digital is now everywhere but China has progressed further than anyone else.
Of course, it makes sense for a heavily Chinese dependent Apple to make fall back plans but China is key to Apple at every conceivable level.
You’re living in 2010
Hardly. We are on the cusp of some real technological advancements and Chinese companies are involved.
Some problems have been decades waiting for resolution. Getting over Shannon's law has been done (Huawei has brought the technical solution to market). Moving beyond von Neumann architecture has finally been achieved (Huawei again). Silicon based architectures are probably going to be replaced relatively soon (China is putting a lot of effort into that). Take a look at patent applications and approvals. China is right up there with the best of the best.
5G roll out and technical implementation plus services to run on them in industry. China again is way out in front.
AI, Quantum computing,...
It would not be crazy to think it isn't about China 'catching up' but China 'leapfrogging' most nations.
That is most definitely not 2010.
You are chronicling the output and achievements of the system put in place by Deng—they are the fruit of seeds sewn in the 20 years from about 1990 to about 2010. That is what Xi inherited and is now squandering. China is at a peak and is poised for a major decline.
When i say you’re living in the past, that’s what I mean. You’re measuring with great precision the current location of the puck without thinking about how it got here or where it’s going next.
Because of demographics China was always going to experience some slower growth and political stress . But Xi is making it vastly worse.
That isn't borne out in reality.
Innovation, backed by investment, is likely to produce more innovation. China put telecommunications on its worldwide road map and is seeing the results now with 5g. The US in contrast, completely dropped the ball.
5G (and 5.5G/6G) will firm the backbone of basically everything (all areas of life) going forward.
China now has a prominent place at the various tables and workgroups that are designing future standards.
That's where the 'puck' is going to be on a technological level.
Demographics is a different problem and affects most developed nations. The EU has problems of its own in that regard. Those particular pucks are still a way off and largely depend on productivity (from an economic perspective) which is something I won't even speculate on as this present industrial revolution is already impacting 'work' as we know it. To a point that the EU has been looking at the notion of a universal income in anticipation for a world with literally less jobs available to the active population.
As an aside there are also two other factors that many people tend to overlook. Spermcounts are falling at unprecedented levels and bees are facing ever increasing problems.
That is a potential double whammy in terms of reproduction and feeding the world's super population. And let's not forget water. The world has to drink too and water scarcity is already a huge problem worldwide.
It is premature to make claims about demographics, though.
However, in terms of pucks and where they might be, China, much like the US before it, it actually trying to move the puck where it needs it to be. China has historically been quite insular in many ways. Now it is laying the foundations for influence in its immediate geographic area of influence along with Africa and South America. That is a huge part of the world.
All of that progess in technology and technological influence is a result of modern China.
And let's not forget that technology is advancing at its highest pace in history and nations are working to reduce dependencies on others (be they friend or foe).
Excellent. Apple has the power to transform a laggard into a leader (see TSMC), so a decision like this by apple really matters. This is a great example of how more aggressive US policy can counter Xi’s anti-democracy crusade.
US policy won't change that angle.
It's important to remember that Trump's number one reason for starting a trade war with China was the trade defecit. It wanted to increase sales to China.
The other angle to what was going on was the rise of China as a technological competitor (and with all the cards to eventually trump the US).
Standard moves by standard rules weren't working so Trump began using executive orders to make things happen.
Apple is well aware of that possibility and probably chose to put any plans it had on hold so as to avoid problems down the line.
Once the China has eliminated US technology from the problem supply lines I expect Apple will try again.
In fact, I think there are multiple signs that Xi has actually weakened the capabilities of the Chinese juggernaut. So far, China’s power and general effectiveness are so great that these signs seem to have gone largely unnoticed, but I think they’re there. The three big ones are: Slowing growth, an international backlash against China, and missteps related to the Covid pandemic.
It’s time to consider the possibility that for all his self-aggrandizement, Xi Jinping is just not that competent of a leader.
Lots of people will disagree but it can't change the core facts (which most people actually agree on).
China is on an accelerated path of technological advancement. That is feared within the US and that is why we are seeing these extreme actions aimed at - slowing down - that progress.
Progress that cannot be stopped.
Apple wants to take advantage of part of that progress through the latest industrial revolution (digital) where China is sitting at the forefront (industrial 5G, advanced logistics, advanced manufacturing and distribution, decarbonisation etc). Digital is now everywhere but China has progressed further than anyone else.
Of course, it makes sense for a heavily Chinese dependent Apple to make fall back plans but China is key to Apple at every conceivable level.
You’re living in 2010
Hardly. We are on the cusp of some real technological advancements and Chinese companies are involved.
Some problems have been decades waiting for resolution. Getting over Shannon's law has been done (Huawei has brought the technical solution to market). Moving beyond von Neumann architecture has finally been achieved (Huawei again). Silicon based architectures are probably going to be replaced relatively soon (China is putting a lot of effort into that). Take a look at patent applications and approvals. China is right up there with the best of the best.
5G roll out and technical implementation plus services to run on them in industry. China again is way out in front.
AI, Quantum computing,...
It would not be crazy to think it isn't about China 'catching up' but China 'leapfrogging' most nations.
That is most definitely not 2010.
You are chronicling the output and achievements of the system put in place by Deng—they are the fruit of seeds sewn in the 20 years from about 1990 to about 2010. That is what Xi inherited and is now squandering. China is at a peak and is poised for a major decline.
When i say you’re living in the past, that’s what I mean. You’re measuring with great precision the current location of the puck without thinking about how it got here or where it’s going next.
Because of demographics China was always going to experience some slower growth and political stress . But Xi is making it vastly worse.
That isn't borne out in reality.
Innovation, backed by investment, is likely to produce more innovation. China put telecommunications on its worldwide road map and is seeing the results now with 5g. The US in contrast, completely dropped the ball.
5G (and 5.5G/6G) will firm the backbone of basically everything (all areas of life) going forward.
China now has a prominent place at the various tables and workgroups that are designing future standards.
That's where the 'puck' is going to be on a technological level.
Demographics is a different problem and affects most developed nations. The EU has problems of its own in that regard. Those particular pucks are still a way off and largely depend on productivity (from an economic perspective) which is something I won't even speculate on as this present industrial revolution is already impacting 'work' as we know it. To a point that the EU has been looking at the notion of a universal income in anticipation for a world with literally less jobs available to the active population.
As an aside there are also two other factors that many people tend to overlook. Spermcounts are falling at unprecedented levels and bees are facing ever increasing problems.
That is a potential double whammy in terms of reproduction and feeding the world's super population. And let's not forget water. The world has to drink too and water scarcity is already a huge problem worldwide.
It is premature to make claims about demographics, though.
However, in terms of pucks and where they might be, China, much like the US before it, it actually trying to move the puck where it needs it to be. China has historically been quite insular in many ways. Now it is laying the foundations for influence in its immediate geographic area of influence along with Africa and South America. That is a huge part of the world.
All of that progess in technology and technological influence is a result of modern China.
And let's not forget that technology is advancing at its highest pace in history and nations are working to reduce dependencies on others (be they friend or foe).
The Russians had innovations in military hardware (eg S400, SU-57 -- look great on paper). It was backed by investment. How's that working out?
In a relatively free and open society, innovation + investment = good stuff. In an authoritarian society, innovation is punished more often than rewarded (because it threatens entrenched interests), investment is squandered through corruption.
For a time, China became more free, more open. For a time, there was some decentralization of power. That time is over. It doesn't matter whether you get it or not, it's over.
Excellent. Apple has the power to transform a laggard into a leader (see TSMC), so a decision like this by apple really matters. This is a great example of how more aggressive US policy can counter Xi’s anti-democracy crusade.
US policy won't change that angle.
It's important to remember that Trump's number one reason for starting a trade war with China was the trade defecit. It wanted to increase sales to China.
The other angle to what was going on was the rise of China as a technological competitor (and with all the cards to eventually trump the US).
Standard moves by standard rules weren't working so Trump began using executive orders to make things happen.
Apple is well aware of that possibility and probably chose to put any plans it had on hold so as to avoid problems down the line.
Once the China has eliminated US technology from the problem supply lines I expect Apple will try again.
In fact, I think there are multiple signs that Xi has actually weakened the capabilities of the Chinese juggernaut. So far, China’s power and general effectiveness are so great that these signs seem to have gone largely unnoticed, but I think they’re there. The three big ones are: Slowing growth, an international backlash against China, and missteps related to the Covid pandemic.
It’s time to consider the possibility that for all his self-aggrandizement, Xi Jinping is just not that competent of a leader.
Lots of people will disagree but it can't change the core facts (which most people actually agree on).
China is on an accelerated path of technological advancement. That is feared within the US and that is why we are seeing these extreme actions aimed at - slowing down - that progress.
Progress that cannot be stopped.
Apple wants to take advantage of part of that progress through the latest industrial revolution (digital) where China is sitting at the forefront (industrial 5G, advanced logistics, advanced manufacturing and distribution, decarbonisation etc). Digital is now everywhere but China has progressed further than anyone else.
Of course, it makes sense for a heavily Chinese dependent Apple to make fall back plans but China is key to Apple at every conceivable level.
You’re living in 2010
Hardly. We are on the cusp of some real technological advancements and Chinese companies are involved.
Some problems have been decades waiting for resolution. Getting over Shannon's law has been done (Huawei has brought the technical solution to market). Moving beyond von Neumann architecture has finally been achieved (Huawei again). Silicon based architectures are probably going to be replaced relatively soon (China is putting a lot of effort into that). Take a look at patent applications and approvals. China is right up there with the best of the best.
5G roll out and technical implementation plus services to run on them in industry. China again is way out in front.
AI, Quantum computing,...
It would not be crazy to think it isn't about China 'catching up' but China 'leapfrogging' most nations.
That is most definitely not 2010.
You are chronicling the output and achievements of the system put in place by Deng—they are the fruit of seeds sewn in the 20 years from about 1990 to about 2010. That is what Xi inherited and is now squandering. China is at a peak and is poised for a major decline.
When i say you’re living in the past, that’s what I mean. You’re measuring with great precision the current location of the puck without thinking about how it got here or where it’s going next.
Because of demographics China was always going to experience some slower growth and political stress . But Xi is making it vastly worse.
That isn't borne out in reality.
Innovation, backed by investment, is likely to produce more innovation. China put telecommunications on its worldwide road map and is seeing the results now with 5g. The US in contrast, completely dropped the ball.
5G (and 5.5G/6G) will firm the backbone of basically everything (all areas of life) going forward.
China now has a prominent place at the various tables and workgroups that are designing future standards.
That's where the 'puck' is going to be on a technological level.
Demographics is a different problem and affects most developed nations. The EU has problems of its own in that regard. Those particular pucks are still a way off and largely depend on productivity (from an economic perspective) which is something I won't even speculate on as this present industrial revolution is already impacting 'work' as we know it. To a point that the EU has been looking at the notion of a universal income in anticipation for a world with literally less jobs available to the active population.
As an aside there are also two other factors that many people tend to overlook. Spermcounts are falling at unprecedented levels and bees are facing ever increasing problems.
That is a potential double whammy in terms of reproduction and feeding the world's super population. And let's not forget water. The world has to drink too and water scarcity is already a huge problem worldwide.
It is premature to make claims about demographics, though.
However, in terms of pucks and where they might be, China, much like the US before it, it actually trying to move the puck where it needs it to be. China has historically been quite insular in many ways. Now it is laying the foundations for influence in its immediate geographic area of influence along with Africa and South America. That is a huge part of the world.
All of that progess in technology and technological influence is a result of modern China.
And let's not forget that technology is advancing at its highest pace in history and nations are working to reduce dependencies on others (be they friend or foe).
The Russians had innovations in military hardware (eg S400, SU-57 -- look great on paper). It was backed by investment. How's that working out?
In a relatively free and open society, innovation + investment = good stuff. In an authoritarian society, innovation is punished more often than rewarded (because it threatens entrenched interests), investment is squandered through corruption.
For a time, China became more free, more open. For a time, there was some decentralization of power. That time is over. It doesn't matter whether you get it or not, it's over.
Corruption and money squandering aren't dependent on which type of government is in power. The US provoked the worst economic crisis in recent memory. China has squandered huge amounts too but here we are: 5G is fueling an industrial revolution. The US is not really part of it. Not even in terms of the technologies that run over it.
China is pushing that envelope and its companies are well placed to reap the rewards. Manufacturing, IoT, Industrial IoT, Airport management, campus management, ports, mining, the oil and gas industry, health, science, fintech...
This is a largely new scenario.
Yesterday Huawei made its annual pitch to the European market in Paris (Huawei Connect 2022) attended by the tech giants of Europe and representatives from the European Parliament. It was the sixth edition and centered on decarbonisation, renewable energies, sustainability, The EU Green Deal and digitalisation. There are billions of euros being ploughed into multiple initiatives.
China is pushing to knock the dollar off its perch too. The EU is doing the same with the euro.
It is the US which is attempting to dismantle world supply chains through extraterritorial sanctions, the latest of which are having a direct impact on technological advancement in sovereign states whose businesses depend on China for sales.
These are actions that help to create direct competitors to non-Chinese businesses and we know that in terms of manufacturing those technological advances end up being purchased by Chinese companies. Just ask ASML.
When some Chinese companies were cut off from using Corning glass variants, what happened? A competing product was developed within China and released this year (Kunlun glass). I imagine Corning wasn't happy with not only losing business but seeing a direct business threat arise as a result.
What are those sovereign states to do? Shrug their collective shoulders? No. For starters, work to erradicate US technology from their products. Not good for the US tech companies which ultimately depend on sales of finished products to China.
What is China to do? Develop its own alternative technologies and bring them to market too. It's doing just that.
The EU has its own plans to reduce independence on US technology.
In the world of EDA software, the big three (US companies basically) have largely failed to bring anything new to market in the last decade yet they have a stranglehold on it all the same. Instead, they are buying up highly specialised technology from startups and eradicating competition. The upshot? China is currently designing its own tools. Well, they already exist but need to improve.
And so the story goes on. Technology moves on too.
I'd venture that Apple is aware of what is happening and looking forward to seeing new players emerge. I doubt it really cares if those players are from the US.
The semiconductor representatives of the US (SEMI for example) probably do care of course. They even wrote directly to the White House to voice their concerns.
If China weren't a technology challenger, none of the US attempts to slow its technology progress down would have been put into effect.
This is not only Apple bowing to government pressure. It's a smart, strategic move. Think about it; If China were to invade Taiwan, or commit some other act that would trigger US sanctions on these very industries on which Apple relies, it would result in disastrous consequences for Apple's supply chain, and hence it's long term profitability. De-escalating their dependence on potential enemy state for mission critical hardware, and providing proprietary manufacturing tech to that enemy state is in Apple's long term interest. If there's one certainly in life, it's war. The game never changes, only the players. Apple is a king. America is a king. Neither need or should act as a pawn. Short, sharp pain now, or protracted, possibly fatal pain later. The choice is obvious.
"Strategy without tactics is the slowest route to victory. Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat." — Sun Tzu, "The Art of War"
Are you really a former Apple employee? Have you checked Apple Supplier List before making such ignorant comment?
Yes, I am really a retired Apple employee. And I was in Purchasing for part of my 12 years there. Have you ever heard of FoxConn? Goertek? Luxshare?
Ever hear of the other ≈ 200 suppliers located in China as of April 2022?
Guess not. And I'm ignorant.
OK How many of them have hq located in China?
Irrelevant. How many of them rely on the Chinese government to stay in business? All of them. Just like Apple. That's why divesting of Chinese assets is in Apple's best long term interest.
US federal budget is one fourth of US GDP. According to your reasoning at least one fourth of Americans rely on US government for jobs.
Excellent. Apple has the power to transform a laggard into a leader (see TSMC), so a decision like this by apple really matters. This is a great example of how more aggressive US policy can counter Xi’s anti-democracy crusade.
US policy won't change that angle.
It's important to remember that Trump's number one reason for starting a trade war with China was the trade defecit. It wanted to increase sales to China.
The other angle to what was going on was the rise of China as a technological competitor (and with all the cards to eventually trump the US).
Standard moves by standard rules weren't working so Trump began using executive orders to make things happen.
Apple is well aware of that possibility and probably chose to put any plans it had on hold so as to avoid problems down the line.
Once the China has eliminated US technology from the problem supply lines I expect Apple will try again.
In fact, I think there are multiple signs that Xi has actually weakened the capabilities of the Chinese juggernaut. So far, China’s power and general effectiveness are so great that these signs seem to have gone largely unnoticed, but I think they’re there. The three big ones are: Slowing growth, an international backlash against China, and missteps related to the Covid pandemic.
It’s time to consider the possibility that for all his self-aggrandizement, Xi Jinping is just not that competent of a leader.
Lots of people will disagree but it can't change the core facts (which most people actually agree on).
China is on an accelerated path of technological advancement. That is feared within the US and that is why we are seeing these extreme actions aimed at - slowing down - that progress.
Progress that cannot be stopped.
Apple wants to take advantage of part of that progress through the latest industrial revolution (digital) where China is sitting at the forefront (industrial 5G, advanced logistics, advanced manufacturing and distribution, decarbonisation etc). Digital is now everywhere but China has progressed further than anyone else.
Of course, it makes sense for a heavily Chinese dependent Apple to make fall back plans but China is key to Apple at every conceivable level.
You’re living in 2010
Hardly. We are on the cusp of some real technological advancements and Chinese companies are involved.
Some problems have been decades waiting for resolution. Getting over Shannon's law has been done (Huawei has brought the technical solution to market). Moving beyond von Neumann architecture has finally been achieved (Huawei again). Silicon based architectures are probably going to be replaced relatively soon (China is putting a lot of effort into that). Take a look at patent applications and approvals. China is right up there with the best of the best.
5G roll out and technical implementation plus services to run on them in industry. China again is way out in front.
AI, Quantum computing,...
It would not be crazy to think it isn't about China 'catching up' but China 'leapfrogging' most nations.
That is most definitely not 2010.
You are chronicling the output and achievements of the system put in place by Deng—they are the fruit of seeds sewn in the 20 years from about 1990 to about 2010. That is what Xi inherited and is now squandering. China is at a peak and is poised for a major decline.
When i say you’re living in the past, that’s what I mean. You’re measuring with great precision the current location of the puck without thinking about how it got here or where it’s going next.
Because of demographics China was always going to experience some slower growth and political stress . But Xi is making it vastly worse.
That isn't borne out in reality.
Innovation, backed by investment, is likely to produce more innovation. China put telecommunications on its worldwide road map and is seeing the results now with 5g. The US in contrast, completely dropped the ball.
5G (and 5.5G/6G) will firm the backbone of basically everything (all areas of life) going forward.
China now has a prominent place at the various tables and workgroups that are designing future standards.
That's where the 'puck' is going to be on a technological level.
Demographics is a different problem and affects most developed nations. The EU has problems of its own in that regard. Those particular pucks are still a way off and largely depend on productivity (from an economic perspective) which is something I won't even speculate on as this present industrial revolution is already impacting 'work' as we know it. To a point that the EU has been looking at the notion of a universal income in anticipation for a world with literally less jobs available to the active population.
As an aside there are also two other factors that many people tend to overlook. Spermcounts are falling at unprecedented levels and bees are facing ever increasing problems.
That is a potential double whammy in terms of reproduction and feeding the world's super population. And let's not forget water. The world has to drink too and water scarcity is already a huge problem worldwide.
It is premature to make claims about demographics, though.
However, in terms of pucks and where they might be, China, much like the US before it, it actually trying to move the puck where it needs it to be. China has historically been quite insular in many ways. Now it is laying the foundations for influence in its immediate geographic area of influence along with Africa and South America. That is a huge part of the world.
All of that progess in technology and technological influence is a result of modern China.
And let's not forget that technology is advancing at its highest pace in history and nations are working to reduce dependencies on others (be they friend or foe).
The Russians had innovations in military hardware (eg S400, SU-57 -- look great on paper). It was backed by investment. How's that working out?
In a relatively free and open society, innovation + investment = good stuff. In an authoritarian society, innovation is punished more often than rewarded (because it threatens entrenched interests), investment is squandered through corruption.
For a time, China became more free, more open. For a time, there was some decentralization of power. That time is over. It doesn't matter whether you get it or not, it's over.
Corruption and money squandering aren't dependent on which type of government is in power. The US provoked the worst economic crisis in recent memory. China has squandered huge amounts too but here we are: 5G is fueling an industrial revolution. The US is not really part of it. Not even in terms of the technologies that run over it.
China is pushing that envelope and its companies are well placed to reap the rewards. Manufacturing, IoT, Industrial IoT, Airport management, campus management, ports, mining, the oil and gas industry, health, science, fintech...
This is a largely new scenario.
Yesterday Huawei made its annual pitch to the European market in Paris (Huawei Connect 2022) attended by the tech giants of Europe and representatives from the European Parliament. It was the sixth edition and centered on decarbonisation, renewable energies, sustainability, The EU Green Deal and digitalisation. There are billions of euros being ploughed into multiple initiatives.
China is pushing to knock the dollar off its perch too. The EU is doing the same with the euro.
It is the US which is attempting to dismantle world supply chains through extraterritorial sanctions, the latest of which are having a direct impact on technological advancement in sovereign states whose businesses depend on China for sales.
These are actions that help to create direct competitors to non-Chinese businesses and we know that in terms of manufacturing those technological advances end up being purchased by Chinese companies. Just ask ASML.
When some Chinese companies were cut off from using Corning glass variants, what happened? A competing product was developed within China and released this year (Kunlun glass). I imagine Corning wasn't happy with not only losing business but seeing a direct business threat arise as a result.
What are those sovereign states to do? Shrug their collective shoulders? No. For starters, work to erradicate US technology from their products. Not good for the US tech companies which ultimately depend on sales of finished products to China.
What is China to do? Develop its own alternative technologies and bring them to market too. It's doing just that.
The EU has its own plans to reduce independence on US technology.
In the world of EDA software, the big three (US companies basically) have largely failed to bring anything new to market in the last decade yet they have a stranglehold on it all the same. Instead, they are buying up highly specialised technology from startups and eradicating competition. The upshot? China is currently designing its own tools. Well, they already exist but need to improve.
And so the story goes on. Technology moves on too.
I'd venture that Apple is aware of what is happening and looking forward to seeing new players emerge. I doubt it really cares if those players are from the US.
The semiconductor representatives of the US (SEMI for example) probably do care of course. They even wrote directly to the White House to voice their concerns.
If China weren't a technology challenger, none of the US attempts to slow its technology progress down would have been put into effect.
You are in denial about China's military ambitions, which are in fact the crux of the competition. Nobody ever does a military buildup on the scale of what China is doing without using it, and China will likely use it against Taiwan first.
Still, if China doesn't use that military prowess by the end of the decade, The West will have had time to build up their forces in the Indo-Pacific, and China will be at its apex, soon to see its demographic decline that could result in halving its population by 2060.
China is pushing to knock the dollar off its perch too. The EU is doing the same with the euro.
This is not only Apple bowing to government pressure. It's a smart, strategic move. Think about it; If China were to invade Taiwan, or commit some other act that would trigger US sanctions on these very industries on which Apple relies, it would result in disastrous consequences for Apple's supply chain, and hence it's long term profitability. De-escalating their dependence on potential enemy state for mission critical hardware, and providing proprietary manufacturing tech to that enemy state is in Apple's long term interest. If there's one certainly in life, it's war. The game never changes, only the players. Apple is a king. America is a king. Neither need or should act as a pawn. Short, sharp pain now, or protracted, possibly fatal pain later. The choice is obvious.
"Strategy without tactics is the slowest route to victory. Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat." — Sun Tzu, "The Art of War"
Are you really a former Apple employee? Have you checked Apple Supplier List before making such ignorant comment?
Yes, I am really a retired Apple employee. And I was in Purchasing for part of my 12 years there. Have you ever heard of FoxConn? Goertek? Luxshare?
Ever hear of the other ≈ 200 suppliers located in China as of April 2022?
Guess not. And I'm ignorant.
OK How many of them have hq located in China?
Irrelevant. How many of them rely on the Chinese government to stay in business? All of them. Just like Apple. That's why divesting of Chinese assets is in Apple's best long term interest.
US federal budget is one fourth of US GDP. According to your reasoning at least one fourth of Americans rely on US government for jobs.
The U.S. isn't a direct investor in much if any business, which is entirely different from China's State Owned Enterprises that are direct investments, and in fact with a controlling interest by the state, or by party members. This is certainly the case for Huawei. The U.S. also has a well established, and complex, taxation system to pay for government.
Oh wait, China has a taxation system as well, and actual tax laws as well.
This is not only Apple bowing to government pressure. It's a smart, strategic move. Think about it; If China were to invade Taiwan, or commit some other act that would trigger US sanctions on these very industries on which Apple relies, it would result in disastrous consequences for Apple's supply chain, and hence it's long term profitability. De-escalating their dependence on potential enemy state for mission critical hardware, and providing proprietary manufacturing tech to that enemy state is in Apple's long term interest. If there's one certainly in life, it's war. The game never changes, only the players. Apple is a king. America is a king. Neither need or should act as a pawn. Short, sharp pain now, or protracted, possibly fatal pain later. The choice is obvious.
"Strategy without tactics is the slowest route to victory. Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat." — Sun Tzu, "The Art of War"
Are you really a former Apple employee? Have you checked Apple Supplier List before making such ignorant comment?
Yes, I am really a retired Apple employee. And I was in Purchasing for part of my 12 years there. Have you ever heard of FoxConn? Goertek? Luxshare?
Ever hear of the other ≈ 200 suppliers located in China as of April 2022?
Guess not. And I'm ignorant.
OK How many of them have hq located in China?
Irrelevant. How many of them rely on the Chinese government to stay in business? All of them. Just like Apple. That's why divesting of Chinese assets is in Apple's best long term interest.
US federal budget is one fourth of US GDP. According to your reasoning at least one fourth of Americans rely on US government for jobs.
The U.S. isn't a direct investor in much if any business, which is entirely different from China's State Owned Enterprises that are direct investments, and in fact with a controlling interest by the state, or by party members. This is certainly the case for Huawei. The U.S. also has a well established, and complex, taxation system to pay for government.
Oh wait, China has a taxation system as well, and actual tax laws as well.
China was not able to defend itself ever since the Opium War in 1840. I can fully understand why China's military buildup. Don't forget China is world largest country.
This is not only Apple bowing to government pressure. It's a smart, strategic move. Think about it; If China were to invade Taiwan, or commit some other act that would trigger US sanctions on these very industries on which Apple relies, it would result in disastrous consequences for Apple's supply chain, and hence it's long term profitability. De-escalating their dependence on potential enemy state for mission critical hardware, and providing proprietary manufacturing tech to that enemy state is in Apple's long term interest. If there's one certainly in life, it's war. The game never changes, only the players. Apple is a king. America is a king. Neither need or should act as a pawn. Short, sharp pain now, or protracted, possibly fatal pain later. The choice is obvious.
"Strategy without tactics is the slowest route to victory. Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat." — Sun Tzu, "The Art of War"
Are you really a former Apple employee? Have you checked Apple Supplier List before making such ignorant comment?
Yes, I am really a retired Apple employee. And I was in Purchasing for part of my 12 years there. Have you ever heard of FoxConn? Goertek? Luxshare?
Ever hear of the other ≈ 200 suppliers located in China as of April 2022?
Guess not. And I'm ignorant.
OK How many of them have hq located in China?
Irrelevant. How many of them rely on the Chinese government to stay in business? All of them. Just like Apple. That's why divesting of Chinese assets is in Apple's best long term interest.
US federal budget is one fourth of US GDP. According to your reasoning at least one fourth of Americans rely on US government for jobs.
The U.S. isn't a direct investor in much if any business, which is entirely different from China's State Owned Enterprises that are direct investments, and in fact with a controlling interest by the state, or by party members. This is certainly the case for Huawei. The U.S. also has a well established, and complex, taxation system to pay for government.
Oh wait, China has a taxation system as well, and actual tax laws as well.
China was not able to defend itself ever since the Opium War in 1840. I can fully understand why China's military buildup. Don't forget China is world largest country.
China is the world's largest by population, not be geography, of which it is third behind Canada by a bit, and ahead of the U.S. by a bit. I'm guessing that is the intent of your statement.
WRT China's military buildup, that's up to the country to decide. Given that China has in the past acquired territory through warfare, why would the West not prepare itself for more of the same?
The fact that China wants to establish alternative rules of order, where authoritarian countries enact alternative sets of rules for the world, is of course, worrisome to the West, and is the reason behind populations in the West being less likely to be supportive of unfettered trade with China. See the example of Hong Kong, which has lost its freedoms, and is no longer considered a safe place to trade.
After Hong Kong’s 2019 pro-democracy, anti-government protests, Beijing imposed a sweeping national security law, under which the government has all but wiped out formal opposition. Authorities have raided and closed down newsrooms, jailed activists and protesters, unseated elected lawmakers, heightened censorship both online and in printed publications, and changed school curricula.
Since the law was introduced, many former protesters and lawmakers have fled overseas, fearing prosecution. Many individuals and families have told CNN they too are considering leaving because they feel the city has been transformed beyond recognition.
In the aftermath of the protests, a number of countries including the United Kingdom, Australia and Canada opened new visa pathways for Hong Kongers looking to leave. Many former protesters and activists have also fled to the self-governing democratic island of Taiwan.
The government has repeatedly defended the security law as restoring law and order to the city, claiming that Hong Kong’s freedoms of speech, press and assembly remain intact.
The security law “has swiftly and effectively restored stability and security,” the government said on July 29, adding that residents “are relieved and happy to see that Hong Kong now continues to be an open, safe, vibrant and business-friendly metropolis.”
This is not only Apple bowing to government pressure. It's a smart, strategic move. Think about it; If China were to invade Taiwan, or commit some other act that would trigger US sanctions on these very industries on which Apple relies, it would result in disastrous consequences for Apple's supply chain, and hence it's long term profitability. De-escalating their dependence on potential enemy state for mission critical hardware, and providing proprietary manufacturing tech to that enemy state is in Apple's long term interest. If there's one certainly in life, it's war. The game never changes, only the players. Apple is a king. America is a king. Neither need or should act as a pawn. Short, sharp pain now, or protracted, possibly fatal pain later. The choice is obvious.
"Strategy without tactics is the slowest route to victory. Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat." — Sun Tzu, "The Art of War"
Are you really a former Apple employee? Have you checked Apple Supplier List before making such ignorant comment?
Yes, I am really a retired Apple employee. And I was in Purchasing for part of my 12 years there. Have you ever heard of FoxConn? Goertek? Luxshare?
Ever hear of the other ≈ 200 suppliers located in China as of April 2022?
Guess not. And I'm ignorant.
OK How many of them have hq located in China?
Irrelevant. How many of them rely on the Chinese government to stay in business? All of them. Just like Apple. That's why divesting of Chinese assets is in Apple's best long term interest.
US federal budget is one fourth of US GDP. According to your reasoning at least one fourth of Americans rely on US government for jobs.
The U.S. isn't a direct investor in much if any business, which is entirely different from China's State Owned Enterprises that are direct investments, and in fact with a controlling interest by the state, or by party members. This is certainly the case for Huawei. The U.S. also has a well established, and complex, taxation system to pay for government.
Oh wait, China has a taxation system as well, and actual tax laws as well.
China was not able to defend itself ever since the Opium War in 1840. I can fully understand why China's military buildup. Don't forget China is world largest country.
China is the world's largest by population, not be geography, of which it is third behind Canada by a bit, and ahead of the U.S. by a bit. I'm guessing that is the intent of your statement.
WRT China's military buildup, that's up to the country to decide. Given that China has in the past acquired territory through warfare, why would the West not prepare itself for more of the same?
The fact that China wants to establish alternative rules of order, where authoritarian countries enact alternative sets of rules for the world, is of course, worrisome to the West, and is the reason behind populations in the West being less likely to be supportive of unfettered trade with China. See the example of Hong Kong, which has lost its freedoms, and is no longer considered a safe place to trade.
After Hong Kong’s 2019 pro-democracy, anti-government protests, Beijing imposed a sweeping national security law, under which the government has all but wiped out formal opposition. Authorities have raided and closed down newsrooms, jailed activists and protesters, unseated elected lawmakers, heightened censorship both online and in printed publications, and changed school curricula.
Since the law was introduced, many former protesters and lawmakers have fled overseas, fearing prosecution. Many individuals and families have told CNN they too are considering leaving because they feel the city has been transformed beyond recognition.
In the aftermath of the protests, a number of countries including the United Kingdom, Australia and Canada opened new visa pathways for Hong Kongers looking to leave. Many former protesters and activists have also fled to the self-governing democratic island of Taiwan.
The government has repeatedly defended the security law as restoring law and order to the city, claiming that Hong Kong’s freedoms of speech, press and assembly remain intact.
The security law “has swiftly and effectively restored stability and security,” the government said on July 29, adding that residents “are relieved and happy to see that Hong Kong now continues to be an open, safe, vibrant and business-friendly metropolis.”
Freedoms intact; not so much.
LOL Given that US has in the past acquired territory through warfare, why would China not prepare itself for more of the same? LOL
This is not only Apple bowing to government pressure. It's a smart, strategic move. Think about it; If China were to invade Taiwan, or commit some other act that would trigger US sanctions on these very industries on which Apple relies, it would result in disastrous consequences for Apple's supply chain, and hence it's long term profitability. De-escalating their dependence on potential enemy state for mission critical hardware, and providing proprietary manufacturing tech to that enemy state is in Apple's long term interest. If there's one certainly in life, it's war. The game never changes, only the players. Apple is a king. America is a king. Neither need or should act as a pawn. Short, sharp pain now, or protracted, possibly fatal pain later. The choice is obvious.
"Strategy without tactics is the slowest route to victory. Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat." — Sun Tzu, "The Art of War"
Are you really a former Apple employee? Have you checked Apple Supplier List before making such ignorant comment?
Yes, I am really a retired Apple employee. And I was in Purchasing for part of my 12 years there. Have you ever heard of FoxConn? Goertek? Luxshare?
Ever hear of the other ≈ 200 suppliers located in China as of April 2022?
Guess not. And I'm ignorant.
OK How many of them have hq located in China?
Irrelevant. How many of them rely on the Chinese government to stay in business? All of them. Just like Apple. That's why divesting of Chinese assets is in Apple's best long term interest.
US federal budget is one fourth of US GDP. According to your reasoning at least one fourth of Americans rely on US government for jobs.
The U.S. isn't a direct investor in much if any business, which is entirely different from China's State Owned Enterprises that are direct investments, and in fact with a controlling interest by the state, or by party members. This is certainly the case for Huawei. The U.S. also has a well established, and complex, taxation system to pay for government.
Oh wait, China has a taxation system as well, and actual tax laws as well.
China was not able to defend itself ever since the Opium War in 1840. I can fully understand why China's military buildup. Don't forget China is world largest country.
China is the world's largest by population, not be geography, of which it is third behind Canada by a bit, and ahead of the U.S. by a bit. I'm guessing that is the intent of your statement.
WRT China's military buildup, that's up to the country to decide. Given that China has in the past acquired territory through warfare, why would the West not prepare itself for more of the same?
The fact that China wants to establish alternative rules of order, where authoritarian countries enact alternative sets of rules for the world, is of course, worrisome to the West, and is the reason behind populations in the West being less likely to be supportive of unfettered trade with China. See the example of Hong Kong, which has lost its freedoms, and is no longer considered a safe place to trade.
After Hong Kong’s 2019 pro-democracy, anti-government protests, Beijing imposed a sweeping national security law, under which the government has all but wiped out formal opposition. Authorities have raided and closed down newsrooms, jailed activists and protesters, unseated elected lawmakers, heightened censorship both online and in printed publications, and changed school curricula.
Since the law was introduced, many former protesters and lawmakers have fled overseas, fearing prosecution. Many individuals and families have told CNN they too are considering leaving because they feel the city has been transformed beyond recognition.
In the aftermath of the protests, a number of countries including the United Kingdom, Australia and Canada opened new visa pathways for Hong Kongers looking to leave. Many former protesters and activists have also fled to the self-governing democratic island of Taiwan.
The government has repeatedly defended the security law as restoring law and order to the city, claiming that Hong Kong’s freedoms of speech, press and assembly remain intact.
The security law “has swiftly and effectively restored stability and security,” the government said on July 29, adding that residents “are relieved and happy to see that Hong Kong now continues to be an open, safe, vibrant and business-friendly metropolis.”
Freedoms intact; not so much.
LOL Given that US has in the past acquired territory through warfare, why would China not prepare itself for more of the same? LOL
So, China continues its imperialism. Good to know, and good luck with "more of the same".
This is not only Apple bowing to government pressure. It's a smart, strategic move. Think about it; If China were to invade Taiwan, or commit some other act that would trigger US sanctions on these very industries on which Apple relies, it would result in disastrous consequences for Apple's supply chain, and hence it's long term profitability. De-escalating their dependence on potential enemy state for mission critical hardware, and providing proprietary manufacturing tech to that enemy state is in Apple's long term interest. If there's one certainly in life, it's war. The game never changes, only the players. Apple is a king. America is a king. Neither need or should act as a pawn. Short, sharp pain now, or protracted, possibly fatal pain later. The choice is obvious.
"Strategy without tactics is the slowest route to victory. Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat." — Sun Tzu, "The Art of War"
Are you really a former Apple employee? Have you checked Apple Supplier List before making such ignorant comment?
Yes, I am really a retired Apple employee. And I was in Purchasing for part of my 12 years there. Have you ever heard of FoxConn? Goertek? Luxshare?
Ever hear of the other ≈ 200 suppliers located in China as of April 2022?
Guess not. And I'm ignorant.
OK How many of them have hq located in China?
Irrelevant. How many of them rely on the Chinese government to stay in business? All of them. Just like Apple. That's why divesting of Chinese assets is in Apple's best long term interest.
US federal budget is one fourth of US GDP. According to your reasoning at least one fourth of Americans rely on US government for jobs.
The U.S. isn't a direct investor in much if any business, which is entirely different from China's State Owned Enterprises that are direct investments, and in fact with a controlling interest by the state, or by party members. This is certainly the case for Huawei. The U.S. also has a well established, and complex, taxation system to pay for government.
Oh wait, China has a taxation system as well, and actual tax laws as well.
China was not able to defend itself ever since the Opium War in 1840. I can fully understand why China's military buildup. Don't forget China is world largest country.
China is the world's largest by population, not be geography, of which it is third behind Canada by a bit, and ahead of the U.S. by a bit. I'm guessing that is the intent of your statement.
WRT China's military buildup, that's up to the country to decide. Given that China has in the past acquired territory through warfare, why would the West not prepare itself for more of the same?
The fact that China wants to establish alternative rules of order, where authoritarian countries enact alternative sets of rules for the world, is of course, worrisome to the West, and is the reason behind populations in the West being less likely to be supportive of unfettered trade with China. See the example of Hong Kong, which has lost its freedoms, and is no longer considered a safe place to trade.
After Hong Kong’s 2019 pro-democracy, anti-government protests, Beijing imposed a sweeping national security law, under which the government has all but wiped out formal opposition. Authorities have raided and closed down newsrooms, jailed activists and protesters, unseated elected lawmakers, heightened censorship both online and in printed publications, and changed school curricula.
Since the law was introduced, many former protesters and lawmakers have fled overseas, fearing prosecution. Many individuals and families have told CNN they too are considering leaving because they feel the city has been transformed beyond recognition.
In the aftermath of the protests, a number of countries including the United Kingdom, Australia and Canada opened new visa pathways for Hong Kongers looking to leave. Many former protesters and activists have also fled to the self-governing democratic island of Taiwan.
The government has repeatedly defended the security law as restoring law and order to the city, claiming that Hong Kong’s freedoms of speech, press and assembly remain intact.
The security law “has swiftly and effectively restored stability and security,” the government said on July 29, adding that residents “are relieved and happy to see that Hong Kong now continues to be an open, safe, vibrant and business-friendly metropolis.”
Freedoms intact; not so much.
LOL Given that US has in the past acquired territory through warfare, why would China not prepare itself for more of the same? LOL
So, China continues its imperialism. Good to know, and good luck with "more of the same".
Indeed — it doesn’t take much to get the truth out.
Excellent. Apple has the power to transform a laggard into a leader (see TSMC), so a decision like this by apple really matters. This is a great example of how more aggressive US policy can counter Xi’s anti-democracy crusade.
US policy won't change that angle.
It's important to remember that Trump's number one reason for starting a trade war with China was the trade defecit. It wanted to increase sales to China.
The other angle to what was going on was the rise of China as a technological competitor (and with all the cards to eventually trump the US).
Standard moves by standard rules weren't working so Trump began using executive orders to make things happen.
Apple is well aware of that possibility and probably chose to put any plans it had on hold so as to avoid problems down the line.
Once the China has eliminated US technology from the problem supply lines I expect Apple will try again.
In fact, I think there are multiple signs that Xi has actually weakened the capabilities of the Chinese juggernaut. So far, China’s power and general effectiveness are so great that these signs seem to have gone largely unnoticed, but I think they’re there. The three big ones are: Slowing growth, an international backlash against China, and missteps related to the Covid pandemic.
It’s time to consider the possibility that for all his self-aggrandizement, Xi Jinping is just not that competent of a leader.
Lots of people will disagree but it can't change the core facts (which most people actually agree on).
China is on an accelerated path of technological advancement. That is feared within the US and that is why we are seeing these extreme actions aimed at - slowing down - that progress.
Progress that cannot be stopped.
Apple wants to take advantage of part of that progress through the latest industrial revolution (digital) where China is sitting at the forefront (industrial 5G, advanced logistics, advanced manufacturing and distribution, decarbonisation etc). Digital is now everywhere but China has progressed further than anyone else.
Of course, it makes sense for a heavily Chinese dependent Apple to make fall back plans but China is key to Apple at every conceivable level.
You’re living in 2010
Hardly. We are on the cusp of some real technological advancements and Chinese companies are involved.
Some problems have been decades waiting for resolution. Getting over Shannon's law has been done (Huawei has brought the technical solution to market). Moving beyond von Neumann architecture has finally been achieved (Huawei again). Silicon based architectures are probably going to be replaced relatively soon (China is putting a lot of effort into that). Take a look at patent applications and approvals. China is right up there with the best of the best.
5G roll out and technical implementation plus services to run on them in industry. China again is way out in front.
AI, Quantum computing,...
It would not be crazy to think it isn't about China 'catching up' but China 'leapfrogging' most nations.
That is most definitely not 2010.
You are chronicling the output and achievements of the system put in place by Deng—they are the fruit of seeds sewn in the 20 years from about 1990 to about 2010. That is what Xi inherited and is now squandering. China is at a peak and is poised for a major decline.
When i say you’re living in the past, that’s what I mean. You’re measuring with great precision the current location of the puck without thinking about how it got here or where it’s going next.
Because of demographics China was always going to experience some slower growth and political stress . But Xi is making it vastly worse.
That isn't borne out in reality.
Innovation, backed by investment, is likely to produce more innovation. China put telecommunications on its worldwide road map and is seeing the results now with 5g. The US in contrast, completely dropped the ball.
5G (and 5.5G/6G) will firm the backbone of basically everything (all areas of life) going forward.
China now has a prominent place at the various tables and workgroups that are designing future standards.
That's where the 'puck' is going to be on a technological level.
Demographics is a different problem and affects most developed nations. The EU has problems of its own in that regard. Those particular pucks are still a way off and largely depend on productivity (from an economic perspective) which is something I won't even speculate on as this present industrial revolution is already impacting 'work' as we know it. To a point that the EU has been looking at the notion of a universal income in anticipation for a world with literally less jobs available to the active population.
As an aside there are also two other factors that many people tend to overlook. Spermcounts are falling at unprecedented levels and bees are facing ever increasing problems.
That is a potential double whammy in terms of reproduction and feeding the world's super population. And let's not forget water. The world has to drink too and water scarcity is already a huge problem worldwide.
It is premature to make claims about demographics, though.
However, in terms of pucks and where they might be, China, much like the US before it, it actually trying to move the puck where it needs it to be. China has historically been quite insular in many ways. Now it is laying the foundations for influence in its immediate geographic area of influence along with Africa and South America. That is a huge part of the world.
All of that progess in technology and technological influence is a result of modern China.
And let's not forget that technology is advancing at its highest pace in history and nations are working to reduce dependencies on others (be they friend or foe).
The Russians had innovations in military hardware (eg S400, SU-57 -- look great on paper). It was backed by investment. How's that working out?
In a relatively free and open society, innovation + investment = good stuff. In an authoritarian society, innovation is punished more often than rewarded (because it threatens entrenched interests), investment is squandered through corruption.
For a time, China became more free, more open. For a time, there was some decentralization of power. That time is over. It doesn't matter whether you get it or not, it's over.
Corruption and money squandering aren't dependent on which type of government is in power. The US provoked the worst economic crisis in recent memory. China has squandered huge amounts too but here we are: 5G is fueling an industrial revolution. The US is not really part of it. Not even in terms of the technologies that run over it.
China is pushing that envelope and its companies are well placed to reap the rewards. Manufacturing, IoT, Industrial IoT, Airport management, campus management, ports, mining, the oil and gas industry, health, science, fintech...
This is a largely new scenario.
Yesterday Huawei made its annual pitch to the European market in Paris (Huawei Connect 2022) attended by the tech giants of Europe and representatives from the European Parliament. It was the sixth edition and centered on decarbonisation, renewable energies, sustainability, The EU Green Deal and digitalisation. There are billions of euros being ploughed into multiple initiatives.
China is pushing to knock the dollar off its perch too. The EU is doing the same with the euro.
It is the US which is attempting to dismantle world supply chains through extraterritorial sanctions, the latest of which are having a direct impact on technological advancement in sovereign states whose businesses depend on China for sales.
These are actions that help to create direct competitors to non-Chinese businesses and we know that in terms of manufacturing those technological advances end up being purchased by Chinese companies. Just ask ASML.
When some Chinese companies were cut off from using Corning glass variants, what happened? A competing product was developed within China and released this year (Kunlun glass). I imagine Corning wasn't happy with not only losing business but seeing a direct business threat arise as a result.
What are those sovereign states to do? Shrug their collective shoulders? No. For starters, work to erradicate US technology from their products. Not good for the US tech companies which ultimately depend on sales of finished products to China.
What is China to do? Develop its own alternative technologies and bring them to market too. It's doing just that.
The EU has its own plans to reduce independence on US technology.
In the world of EDA software, the big three (US companies basically) have largely failed to bring anything new to market in the last decade yet they have a stranglehold on it all the same. Instead, they are buying up highly specialised technology from startups and eradicating competition. The upshot? China is currently designing its own tools. Well, they already exist but need to improve.
And so the story goes on. Technology moves on too.
I'd venture that Apple is aware of what is happening and looking forward to seeing new players emerge. I doubt it really cares if those players are from the US.
The semiconductor representatives of the US (SEMI for example) probably do care of course. They even wrote directly to the White House to voice their concerns.
If China weren't a technology challenger, none of the US attempts to slow its technology progress down would have been put into effect.
You are in denial about China's military ambitions, which are in fact the crux of the competition. Nobody ever does a military buildup on the scale of what China is doing without using it, and China will likely use it against Taiwan first.
Still, if China doesn't use that military prowess by the end of the decade, The West will have had time to build up their forces in the Indo-Pacific, and China will be at its apex, soon to see its demographic decline that could result in halving its population by 2060.
Yuan has been lower lately, driven by China's economy losing steam.
Why drag the military into this? Technology doesn't understand its ultimate usage. This is about technology. Don't try to boil it all down to military usage.
None of the current 'sanctions' will have the slightest impact on China's military ambitions anyway.
It is perhaps ironic though that Corning does supply the US military and was one of the reasons sales to China were banned. Did that achieve anything positive? No.
Just lost business for Corning (less revenue for future R&D too) and the arrival of a new competitor in its market. Would Huawei have even bothered with developing Kunlun if it weren't for the ban? Probably not. There you go. That situation will be played out across the entire technology base.
It is not solely about military technology and Blinken himself said as much yesterday:
"We are at an inflection point,”. “Technology will in many ways retool our economies. It will reform our militaries. It will reshape the lives of people across the planet. And so it’s profoundly a source of national strength.”
Is that clear enough for you? Technology. Pure and simple and in every area of our daily lives (which goes far, far beyond military usage).
That is why the US is scrambling to get back in the race.
This thread is about technology. Yes, there is an inevitable political connection here but it should keep technology at its core. There is no need to go OTT with the military angle.
Yeah, China is developing its military capacity. So is the US. So is just about anyone with a big enough budget to pay for it.
Excellent. Apple has the power to transform a laggard into a leader (see TSMC), so a decision like this by apple really matters. This is a great example of how more aggressive US policy can counter Xi’s anti-democracy crusade.
US policy won't change that angle.
It's important to remember that Trump's number one reason for starting a trade war with China was the trade defecit. It wanted to increase sales to China.
The other angle to what was going on was the rise of China as a technological competitor (and with all the cards to eventually trump the US).
Standard moves by standard rules weren't working so Trump began using executive orders to make things happen.
Apple is well aware of that possibility and probably chose to put any plans it had on hold so as to avoid problems down the line.
Once the China has eliminated US technology from the problem supply lines I expect Apple will try again.
In fact, I think there are multiple signs that Xi has actually weakened the capabilities of the Chinese juggernaut. So far, China’s power and general effectiveness are so great that these signs seem to have gone largely unnoticed, but I think they’re there. The three big ones are: Slowing growth, an international backlash against China, and missteps related to the Covid pandemic.
It’s time to consider the possibility that for all his self-aggrandizement, Xi Jinping is just not that competent of a leader.
Lots of people will disagree but it can't change the core facts (which most people actually agree on).
China is on an accelerated path of technological advancement. That is feared within the US and that is why we are seeing these extreme actions aimed at - slowing down - that progress.
Progress that cannot be stopped.
Apple wants to take advantage of part of that progress through the latest industrial revolution (digital) where China is sitting at the forefront (industrial 5G, advanced logistics, advanced manufacturing and distribution, decarbonisation etc). Digital is now everywhere but China has progressed further than anyone else.
Of course, it makes sense for a heavily Chinese dependent Apple to make fall back plans but China is key to Apple at every conceivable level.
You’re living in 2010
Hardly. We are on the cusp of some real technological advancements and Chinese companies are involved.
Some problems have been decades waiting for resolution. Getting over Shannon's law has been done (Huawei has brought the technical solution to market). Moving beyond von Neumann architecture has finally been achieved (Huawei again). Silicon based architectures are probably going to be replaced relatively soon (China is putting a lot of effort into that). Take a look at patent applications and approvals. China is right up there with the best of the best.
5G roll out and technical implementation plus services to run on them in industry. China again is way out in front.
AI, Quantum computing,...
It would not be crazy to think it isn't about China 'catching up' but China 'leapfrogging' most nations.
That is most definitely not 2010.
You are chronicling the output and achievements of the system put in place by Deng—they are the fruit of seeds sewn in the 20 years from about 1990 to about 2010. That is what Xi inherited and is now squandering. China is at a peak and is poised for a major decline.
When i say you’re living in the past, that’s what I mean. You’re measuring with great precision the current location of the puck without thinking about how it got here or where it’s going next.
Because of demographics China was always going to experience some slower growth and political stress . But Xi is making it vastly worse.
That isn't borne out in reality.
Innovation, backed by investment, is likely to produce more innovation. China put telecommunications on its worldwide road map and is seeing the results now with 5g. The US in contrast, completely dropped the ball.
5G (and 5.5G/6G) will firm the backbone of basically everything (all areas of life) going forward.
China now has a prominent place at the various tables and workgroups that are designing future standards.
That's where the 'puck' is going to be on a technological level.
Demographics is a different problem and affects most developed nations. The EU has problems of its own in that regard. Those particular pucks are still a way off and largely depend on productivity (from an economic perspective) which is something I won't even speculate on as this present industrial revolution is already impacting 'work' as we know it. To a point that the EU has been looking at the notion of a universal income in anticipation for a world with literally less jobs available to the active population.
As an aside there are also two other factors that many people tend to overlook. Spermcounts are falling at unprecedented levels and bees are facing ever increasing problems.
That is a potential double whammy in terms of reproduction and feeding the world's super population. And let's not forget water. The world has to drink too and water scarcity is already a huge problem worldwide.
It is premature to make claims about demographics, though.
However, in terms of pucks and where they might be, China, much like the US before it, it actually trying to move the puck where it needs it to be. China has historically been quite insular in many ways. Now it is laying the foundations for influence in its immediate geographic area of influence along with Africa and South America. That is a huge part of the world.
All of that progess in technology and technological influence is a result of modern China.
And let's not forget that technology is advancing at its highest pace in history and nations are working to reduce dependencies on others (be they friend or foe).
The Russians had innovations in military hardware (eg S400, SU-57 -- look great on paper). It was backed by investment. How's that working out?
In a relatively free and open society, innovation + investment = good stuff. In an authoritarian society, innovation is punished more often than rewarded (because it threatens entrenched interests), investment is squandered through corruption.
For a time, China became more free, more open. For a time, there was some decentralization of power. That time is over. It doesn't matter whether you get it or not, it's over.
Corruption and money squandering aren't dependent on which type of government is in power. The US provoked the worst economic crisis in recent memory. China has squandered huge amounts too but here we are: 5G is fueling an industrial revolution. The US is not really part of it. Not even in terms of the technologies that run over it.
China is pushing that envelope and its companies are well placed to reap the rewards. Manufacturing, IoT, Industrial IoT, Airport management, campus management, ports, mining, the oil and gas industry, health, science, fintech...
This is a largely new scenario.
Yesterday Huawei made its annual pitch to the European market in Paris (Huawei Connect 2022) attended by the tech giants of Europe and representatives from the European Parliament. It was the sixth edition and centered on decarbonisation, renewable energies, sustainability, The EU Green Deal and digitalisation. There are billions of euros being ploughed into multiple initiatives.
China is pushing to knock the dollar off its perch too. The EU is doing the same with the euro.
It is the US which is attempting to dismantle world supply chains through extraterritorial sanctions, the latest of which are having a direct impact on technological advancement in sovereign states whose businesses depend on China for sales.
These are actions that help to create direct competitors to non-Chinese businesses and we know that in terms of manufacturing those technological advances end up being purchased by Chinese companies. Just ask ASML.
When some Chinese companies were cut off from using Corning glass variants, what happened? A competing product was developed within China and released this year (Kunlun glass). I imagine Corning wasn't happy with not only losing business but seeing a direct business threat arise as a result.
What are those sovereign states to do? Shrug their collective shoulders? No. For starters, work to erradicate US technology from their products. Not good for the US tech companies which ultimately depend on sales of finished products to China.
What is China to do? Develop its own alternative technologies and bring them to market too. It's doing just that.
The EU has its own plans to reduce independence on US technology.
In the world of EDA software, the big three (US companies basically) have largely failed to bring anything new to market in the last decade yet they have a stranglehold on it all the same. Instead, they are buying up highly specialised technology from startups and eradicating competition. The upshot? China is currently designing its own tools. Well, they already exist but need to improve.
And so the story goes on. Technology moves on too.
I'd venture that Apple is aware of what is happening and looking forward to seeing new players emerge. I doubt it really cares if those players are from the US.
The semiconductor representatives of the US (SEMI for example) probably do care of course. They even wrote directly to the White House to voice their concerns.
If China weren't a technology challenger, none of the US attempts to slow its technology progress down would have been put into effect.
You are in denial about China's military ambitions, which are in fact the crux of the competition. Nobody ever does a military buildup on the scale of what China is doing without using it, and China will likely use it against Taiwan first.
Still, if China doesn't use that military prowess by the end of the decade, The West will have had time to build up their forces in the Indo-Pacific, and China will be at its apex, soon to see its demographic decline that could result in halving its population by 2060.
China is pushing to knock the dollar off its perch too. The EU is doing the same with the euro.
Yuan has been lower lately, driven by China's economy losing steam.
Why drag the military into this? Technology doesn't understand its ultimate usage. This is about technology. Don't try to boil it all down to military usage.
None of the current 'sanctions' will have the slightest impact on China's military ambitions anyway.
It is perhaps ironic though that Corning does supply the US military and was one of the reasons sales to China were banned. Did that achieve anything positive? No.
Just lost business for Corning (less revenue for future R&D too) and the arrival of a new competitor in its market. Would Huawei have even bothered with developing Kunlun if it weren't for the ban? Probably not. There you go. That situation will be played out across the entire technology base.
It is not solely about military technology and Blinken himself said as much yesterday:
"We are at an inflection point,”. “Technology will in many ways retool our economies. It will reform our militaries. It will reshape the lives of people across the planet. And so it’s profoundly a source of national strength.”
Is that clear enough for you? Technology. Pure and simple and in every area of our daily lives (which goes far, far beyond military usage).
That is why the US is scrambling to get back in the race.
This thread is about technology. Yes, there is an inevitable political connection here but it should keep technology at its core. There is no need to go OTT with the military angle.
Yeah, China is developing its military capacity. So is the US. So is just about anyone with a big enough budget to pay for it.
"Why drag the military into this?"
Seriously? This is your argument?
The West has been explicit about the threat of China's militarization, along with China's human rights violations. The attempt of China in creating its own authoritarian rules of order, and enlisting other authoritarians, is obvious. Even the EU has been reevaluating its trade with China over human rights violations, but now is also concerned about China's military power in the Pacific, to the point of assigning NATO naval forces to the Pacific. It's hard to imagine that Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and its alliance with China, hasn't been a massive wakeup call to the EU.
In the short and medium term, starving China of semiconductor technology buys time for the West to buildup forces in the Indo-Pacific, primarily to protect Taiwan from invasion, and bolster the freedom of navigation in the South China Sea.
In the longer term, it slows China's ascent, and pulls China's apex to the mid-30's, before it declines, as do most authoritarian powers that overreach. What happens to China, that has invested massive amounts into real estate and infrastructure, when the population collapses, which the probability is that it will halve by 2060?
China's economy is a house of cards, and further isolation by Xi's policies will only slow growth and create instability.
You must have been fond of Franco when you were younger...
Excellent. Apple has the power to transform a laggard into a leader (see TSMC), so a decision like this by apple really matters. This is a great example of how more aggressive US policy can counter Xi’s anti-democracy crusade.
US policy won't change that angle.
It's important to remember that Trump's number one reason for starting a trade war with China was the trade defecit. It wanted to increase sales to China.
The other angle to what was going on was the rise of China as a technological competitor (and with all the cards to eventually trump the US).
Standard moves by standard rules weren't working so Trump began using executive orders to make things happen.
Apple is well aware of that possibility and probably chose to put any plans it had on hold so as to avoid problems down the line.
Once the China has eliminated US technology from the problem supply lines I expect Apple will try again.
In fact, I think there are multiple signs that Xi has actually weakened the capabilities of the Chinese juggernaut. So far, China’s power and general effectiveness are so great that these signs seem to have gone largely unnoticed, but I think they’re there. The three big ones are: Slowing growth, an international backlash against China, and missteps related to the Covid pandemic.
It’s time to consider the possibility that for all his self-aggrandizement, Xi Jinping is just not that competent of a leader.
Lots of people will disagree but it can't change the core facts (which most people actually agree on).
China is on an accelerated path of technological advancement. That is feared within the US and that is why we are seeing these extreme actions aimed at - slowing down - that progress.
Progress that cannot be stopped.
Apple wants to take advantage of part of that progress through the latest industrial revolution (digital) where China is sitting at the forefront (industrial 5G, advanced logistics, advanced manufacturing and distribution, decarbonisation etc). Digital is now everywhere but China has progressed further than anyone else.
Of course, it makes sense for a heavily Chinese dependent Apple to make fall back plans but China is key to Apple at every conceivable level.
You’re living in 2010
Hardly. We are on the cusp of some real technological advancements and Chinese companies are involved.
Some problems have been decades waiting for resolution. Getting over Shannon's law has been done (Huawei has brought the technical solution to market). Moving beyond von Neumann architecture has finally been achieved (Huawei again). Silicon based architectures are probably going to be replaced relatively soon (China is putting a lot of effort into that). Take a look at patent applications and approvals. China is right up there with the best of the best.
5G roll out and technical implementation plus services to run on them in industry. China again is way out in front.
AI, Quantum computing,...
It would not be crazy to think it isn't about China 'catching up' but China 'leapfrogging' most nations.
That is most definitely not 2010.
You are chronicling the output and achievements of the system put in place by Deng—they are the fruit of seeds sewn in the 20 years from about 1990 to about 2010. That is what Xi inherited and is now squandering. China is at a peak and is poised for a major decline.
When i say you’re living in the past, that’s what I mean. You’re measuring with great precision the current location of the puck without thinking about how it got here or where it’s going next.
Because of demographics China was always going to experience some slower growth and political stress . But Xi is making it vastly worse.
That isn't borne out in reality.
Innovation, backed by investment, is likely to produce more innovation. China put telecommunications on its worldwide road map and is seeing the results now with 5g. The US in contrast, completely dropped the ball.
5G (and 5.5G/6G) will firm the backbone of basically everything (all areas of life) going forward.
China now has a prominent place at the various tables and workgroups that are designing future standards.
That's where the 'puck' is going to be on a technological level.
Demographics is a different problem and affects most developed nations. The EU has problems of its own in that regard. Those particular pucks are still a way off and largely depend on productivity (from an economic perspective) which is something I won't even speculate on as this present industrial revolution is already impacting 'work' as we know it. To a point that the EU has been looking at the notion of a universal income in anticipation for a world with literally less jobs available to the active population.
As an aside there are also two other factors that many people tend to overlook. Spermcounts are falling at unprecedented levels and bees are facing ever increasing problems.
That is a potential double whammy in terms of reproduction and feeding the world's super population. And let's not forget water. The world has to drink too and water scarcity is already a huge problem worldwide.
It is premature to make claims about demographics, though.
However, in terms of pucks and where they might be, China, much like the US before it, it actually trying to move the puck where it needs it to be. China has historically been quite insular in many ways. Now it is laying the foundations for influence in its immediate geographic area of influence along with Africa and South America. That is a huge part of the world.
All of that progess in technology and technological influence is a result of modern China.
And let's not forget that technology is advancing at its highest pace in history and nations are working to reduce dependencies on others (be they friend or foe).
The Russians had innovations in military hardware (eg S400, SU-57 -- look great on paper). It was backed by investment. How's that working out?
In a relatively free and open society, innovation + investment = good stuff. In an authoritarian society, innovation is punished more often than rewarded (because it threatens entrenched interests), investment is squandered through corruption.
For a time, China became more free, more open. For a time, there was some decentralization of power. That time is over. It doesn't matter whether you get it or not, it's over.
Corruption and money squandering aren't dependent on which type of government is in power. The US provoked the worst economic crisis in recent memory. China has squandered huge amounts too but here we are: 5G is fueling an industrial revolution. The US is not really part of it. Not even in terms of the technologies that run over it.
China is pushing that envelope and its companies are well placed to reap the rewards. Manufacturing, IoT, Industrial IoT, Airport management, campus management, ports, mining, the oil and gas industry, health, science, fintech...
This is a largely new scenario.
Yesterday Huawei made its annual pitch to the European market in Paris (Huawei Connect 2022) attended by the tech giants of Europe and representatives from the European Parliament. It was the sixth edition and centered on decarbonisation, renewable energies, sustainability, The EU Green Deal and digitalisation. There are billions of euros being ploughed into multiple initiatives.
China is pushing to knock the dollar off its perch too. The EU is doing the same with the euro.
It is the US which is attempting to dismantle world supply chains through extraterritorial sanctions, the latest of which are having a direct impact on technological advancement in sovereign states whose businesses depend on China for sales.
These are actions that help to create direct competitors to non-Chinese businesses and we know that in terms of manufacturing those technological advances end up being purchased by Chinese companies. Just ask ASML.
When some Chinese companies were cut off from using Corning glass variants, what happened? A competing product was developed within China and released this year (Kunlun glass). I imagine Corning wasn't happy with not only losing business but seeing a direct business threat arise as a result.
What are those sovereign states to do? Shrug their collective shoulders? No. For starters, work to erradicate US technology from their products. Not good for the US tech companies which ultimately depend on sales of finished products to China.
What is China to do? Develop its own alternative technologies and bring them to market too. It's doing just that.
The EU has its own plans to reduce independence on US technology.
In the world of EDA software, the big three (US companies basically) have largely failed to bring anything new to market in the last decade yet they have a stranglehold on it all the same. Instead, they are buying up highly specialised technology from startups and eradicating competition. The upshot? China is currently designing its own tools. Well, they already exist but need to improve.
And so the story goes on. Technology moves on too.
I'd venture that Apple is aware of what is happening and looking forward to seeing new players emerge. I doubt it really cares if those players are from the US.
The semiconductor representatives of the US (SEMI for example) probably do care of course. They even wrote directly to the White House to voice their concerns.
If China weren't a technology challenger, none of the US attempts to slow its technology progress down would have been put into effect.
You are in denial about China's military ambitions, which are in fact the crux of the competition. Nobody ever does a military buildup on the scale of what China is doing without using it, and China will likely use it against Taiwan first.
Still, if China doesn't use that military prowess by the end of the decade, The West will have had time to build up their forces in the Indo-Pacific, and China will be at its apex, soon to see its demographic decline that could result in halving its population by 2060.
China is pushing to knock the dollar off its perch too. The EU is doing the same with the euro.
Yuan has been lower lately, driven by China's economy losing steam.
Why drag the military into this? Technology doesn't understand its ultimate usage. This is about technology. Don't try to boil it all down to military usage.
None of the current 'sanctions' will have the slightest impact on China's military ambitions anyway.
It is perhaps ironic though that Corning does supply the US military and was one of the reasons sales to China were banned. Did that achieve anything positive? No.
Just lost business for Corning (less revenue for future R&D too) and the arrival of a new competitor in its market. Would Huawei have even bothered with developing Kunlun if it weren't for the ban? Probably not. There you go. That situation will be played out across the entire technology base.
It is not solely about military technology and Blinken himself said as much yesterday:
"We are at an inflection point,”. “Technology will in many ways retool our economies. It will reform our militaries. It will reshape the lives of people across the planet. And so it’s profoundly a source of national strength.”
Is that clear enough for you? Technology. Pure and simple and in every area of our daily lives (which goes far, far beyond military usage).
That is why the US is scrambling to get back in the race.
This thread is about technology. Yes, there is an inevitable political connection here but it should keep technology at its core. There is no need to go OTT with the military angle.
Yeah, China is developing its military capacity. So is the US. So is just about anyone with a big enough budget to pay for it.
A good summary of the U.S. Semiconductor policy and sanctions on China.
In essence, this is about delaying China's ability to source semiconductors internally, in an effort to reduce the risk of invasion of Taiwan, until the U.S. has build up its force structure in a 2027 timeframe, at which time, it would be very costly militarily for China to invade.
So yeah, National Security of the U.S. and it's allies, and a response to China's militarism.
Excellent. Apple has the power to transform a laggard into a leader (see TSMC), so a decision like this by apple really matters. This is a great example of how more aggressive US policy can counter Xi’s anti-democracy crusade.
US policy won't change that angle.
It's important to remember that Trump's number one reason for starting a trade war with China was the trade defecit. It wanted to increase sales to China.
The other angle to what was going on was the rise of China as a technological competitor (and with all the cards to eventually trump the US).
Standard moves by standard rules weren't working so Trump began using executive orders to make things happen.
Apple is well aware of that possibility and probably chose to put any plans it had on hold so as to avoid problems down the line.
Once the China has eliminated US technology from the problem supply lines I expect Apple will try again.
In fact, I think there are multiple signs that Xi has actually weakened the capabilities of the Chinese juggernaut. So far, China’s power and general effectiveness are so great that these signs seem to have gone largely unnoticed, but I think they’re there. The three big ones are: Slowing growth, an international backlash against China, and missteps related to the Covid pandemic.
It’s time to consider the possibility that for all his self-aggrandizement, Xi Jinping is just not that competent of a leader.
Lots of people will disagree but it can't change the core facts (which most people actually agree on).
China is on an accelerated path of technological advancement. That is feared within the US and that is why we are seeing these extreme actions aimed at - slowing down - that progress.
Progress that cannot be stopped.
Apple wants to take advantage of part of that progress through the latest industrial revolution (digital) where China is sitting at the forefront (industrial 5G, advanced logistics, advanced manufacturing and distribution, decarbonisation etc). Digital is now everywhere but China has progressed further than anyone else.
Of course, it makes sense for a heavily Chinese dependent Apple to make fall back plans but China is key to Apple at every conceivable level.
You’re living in 2010
Hardly. We are on the cusp of some real technological advancements and Chinese companies are involved.
Some problems have been decades waiting for resolution. Getting over Shannon's law has been done (Huawei has brought the technical solution to market). Moving beyond von Neumann architecture has finally been achieved (Huawei again). Silicon based architectures are probably going to be replaced relatively soon (China is putting a lot of effort into that). Take a look at patent applications and approvals. China is right up there with the best of the best.
5G roll out and technical implementation plus services to run on them in industry. China again is way out in front.
AI, Quantum computing,...
It would not be crazy to think it isn't about China 'catching up' but China 'leapfrogging' most nations.
That is most definitely not 2010.
You are chronicling the output and achievements of the system put in place by Deng—they are the fruit of seeds sewn in the 20 years from about 1990 to about 2010. That is what Xi inherited and is now squandering. China is at a peak and is poised for a major decline.
When i say you’re living in the past, that’s what I mean. You’re measuring with great precision the current location of the puck without thinking about how it got here or where it’s going next.
Because of demographics China was always going to experience some slower growth and political stress . But Xi is making it vastly worse.
That isn't borne out in reality.
Innovation, backed by investment, is likely to produce more innovation. China put telecommunications on its worldwide road map and is seeing the results now with 5g. The US in contrast, completely dropped the ball.
5G (and 5.5G/6G) will firm the backbone of basically everything (all areas of life) going forward.
China now has a prominent place at the various tables and workgroups that are designing future standards.
That's where the 'puck' is going to be on a technological level.
Demographics is a different problem and affects most developed nations. The EU has problems of its own in that regard. Those particular pucks are still a way off and largely depend on productivity (from an economic perspective) which is something I won't even speculate on as this present industrial revolution is already impacting 'work' as we know it. To a point that the EU has been looking at the notion of a universal income in anticipation for a world with literally less jobs available to the active population.
As an aside there are also two other factors that many people tend to overlook. Spermcounts are falling at unprecedented levels and bees are facing ever increasing problems.
That is a potential double whammy in terms of reproduction and feeding the world's super population. And let's not forget water. The world has to drink too and water scarcity is already a huge problem worldwide.
It is premature to make claims about demographics, though.
However, in terms of pucks and where they might be, China, much like the US before it, it actually trying to move the puck where it needs it to be. China has historically been quite insular in many ways. Now it is laying the foundations for influence in its immediate geographic area of influence along with Africa and South America. That is a huge part of the world.
All of that progess in technology and technological influence is a result of modern China.
And let's not forget that technology is advancing at its highest pace in history and nations are working to reduce dependencies on others (be they friend or foe).
The Russians had innovations in military hardware (eg S400, SU-57 -- look great on paper). It was backed by investment. How's that working out?
In a relatively free and open society, innovation + investment = good stuff. In an authoritarian society, innovation is punished more often than rewarded (because it threatens entrenched interests), investment is squandered through corruption.
For a time, China became more free, more open. For a time, there was some decentralization of power. That time is over. It doesn't matter whether you get it or not, it's over.
Corruption and money squandering aren't dependent on which type of government is in power. The US provoked the worst economic crisis in recent memory. China has squandered huge amounts too but here we are: 5G is fueling an industrial revolution. The US is not really part of it. Not even in terms of the technologies that run over it.
China is pushing that envelope and its companies are well placed to reap the rewards. Manufacturing, IoT, Industrial IoT, Airport management, campus management, ports, mining, the oil and gas industry, health, science, fintech...
This is a largely new scenario.
Yesterday Huawei made its annual pitch to the European market in Paris (Huawei Connect 2022) attended by the tech giants of Europe and representatives from the European Parliament. It was the sixth edition and centered on decarbonisation, renewable energies, sustainability, The EU Green Deal and digitalisation. There are billions of euros being ploughed into multiple initiatives.
China is pushing to knock the dollar off its perch too. The EU is doing the same with the euro.
It is the US which is attempting to dismantle world supply chains through extraterritorial sanctions, the latest of which are having a direct impact on technological advancement in sovereign states whose businesses depend on China for sales.
These are actions that help to create direct competitors to non-Chinese businesses and we know that in terms of manufacturing those technological advances end up being purchased by Chinese companies. Just ask ASML.
When some Chinese companies were cut off from using Corning glass variants, what happened? A competing product was developed within China and released this year (Kunlun glass). I imagine Corning wasn't happy with not only losing business but seeing a direct business threat arise as a result.
What are those sovereign states to do? Shrug their collective shoulders? No. For starters, work to erradicate US technology from their products. Not good for the US tech companies which ultimately depend on sales of finished products to China.
What is China to do? Develop its own alternative technologies and bring them to market too. It's doing just that.
The EU has its own plans to reduce independence on US technology.
In the world of EDA software, the big three (US companies basically) have largely failed to bring anything new to market in the last decade yet they have a stranglehold on it all the same. Instead, they are buying up highly specialised technology from startups and eradicating competition. The upshot? China is currently designing its own tools. Well, they already exist but need to improve.
And so the story goes on. Technology moves on too.
I'd venture that Apple is aware of what is happening and looking forward to seeing new players emerge. I doubt it really cares if those players are from the US.
The semiconductor representatives of the US (SEMI for example) probably do care of course. They even wrote directly to the White House to voice their concerns.
If China weren't a technology challenger, none of the US attempts to slow its technology progress down would have been put into effect.
You are in denial about China's military ambitions, which are in fact the crux of the competition. Nobody ever does a military buildup on the scale of what China is doing without using it, and China will likely use it against Taiwan first.
Still, if China doesn't use that military prowess by the end of the decade, The West will have had time to build up their forces in the Indo-Pacific, and China will be at its apex, soon to see its demographic decline that could result in halving its population by 2060.
China is pushing to knock the dollar off its perch too. The EU is doing the same with the euro.
Yuan has been lower lately, driven by China's economy losing steam.
Why drag the military into this? Technology doesn't understand its ultimate usage. This is about technology. Don't try to boil it all down to military usage.
None of the current 'sanctions' will have the slightest impact on China's military ambitions anyway.
It is perhaps ironic though that Corning does supply the US military and was one of the reasons sales to China were banned. Did that achieve anything positive? No.
Just lost business for Corning (less revenue for future R&D too) and the arrival of a new competitor in its market. Would Huawei have even bothered with developing Kunlun if it weren't for the ban? Probably not. There you go. That situation will be played out across the entire technology base.
It is not solely about military technology and Blinken himself said as much yesterday:
"We are at an inflection point,”. “Technology will in many ways retool our economies. It will reform our militaries. It will reshape the lives of people across the planet. And so it’s profoundly a source of national strength.”
Is that clear enough for you? Technology. Pure and simple and in every area of our daily lives (which goes far, far beyond military usage).
That is why the US is scrambling to get back in the race.
This thread is about technology. Yes, there is an inevitable political connection here but it should keep technology at its core. There is no need to go OTT with the military angle.
Yeah, China is developing its military capacity. So is the US. So is just about anyone with a big enough budget to pay for it.
A good summary of the U.S. Semiconductor policy and sanctions on China.
In essence, this is about delaying China's ability to source semiconductors internally, in an effort to reduce the risk of invasion of Taiwan, until the U.S. has build up its force structure in a 2027 timeframe, at which time, it would be very costly militarily for China to invade.
So yeah, National Security of the U.S. and it's allies, and a response to China's militarism.
Excellent. Apple has the power to transform a laggard into a leader (see TSMC), so a decision like this by apple really matters. This is a great example of how more aggressive US policy can counter Xi’s anti-democracy crusade.
US policy won't change that angle.
It's important to remember that Trump's number one reason for starting a trade war with China was the trade defecit. It wanted to increase sales to China.
The other angle to what was going on was the rise of China as a technological competitor (and with all the cards to eventually trump the US).
Standard moves by standard rules weren't working so Trump began using executive orders to make things happen.
Apple is well aware of that possibility and probably chose to put any plans it had on hold so as to avoid problems down the line.
Once the China has eliminated US technology from the problem supply lines I expect Apple will try again.
In fact, I think there are multiple signs that Xi has actually weakened the capabilities of the Chinese juggernaut. So far, China’s power and general effectiveness are so great that these signs seem to have gone largely unnoticed, but I think they’re there. The three big ones are: Slowing growth, an international backlash against China, and missteps related to the Covid pandemic.
It’s time to consider the possibility that for all his self-aggrandizement, Xi Jinping is just not that competent of a leader.
Lots of people will disagree but it can't change the core facts (which most people actually agree on).
China is on an accelerated path of technological advancement. That is feared within the US and that is why we are seeing these extreme actions aimed at - slowing down - that progress.
Progress that cannot be stopped.
Apple wants to take advantage of part of that progress through the latest industrial revolution (digital) where China is sitting at the forefront (industrial 5G, advanced logistics, advanced manufacturing and distribution, decarbonisation etc). Digital is now everywhere but China has progressed further than anyone else.
Of course, it makes sense for a heavily Chinese dependent Apple to make fall back plans but China is key to Apple at every conceivable level.
You’re living in 2010
Hardly. We are on the cusp of some real technological advancements and Chinese companies are involved.
Some problems have been decades waiting for resolution. Getting over Shannon's law has been done (Huawei has brought the technical solution to market). Moving beyond von Neumann architecture has finally been achieved (Huawei again). Silicon based architectures are probably going to be replaced relatively soon (China is putting a lot of effort into that). Take a look at patent applications and approvals. China is right up there with the best of the best.
5G roll out and technical implementation plus services to run on them in industry. China again is way out in front.
AI, Quantum computing,...
It would not be crazy to think it isn't about China 'catching up' but China 'leapfrogging' most nations.
That is most definitely not 2010.
You are chronicling the output and achievements of the system put in place by Deng—they are the fruit of seeds sewn in the 20 years from about 1990 to about 2010. That is what Xi inherited and is now squandering. China is at a peak and is poised for a major decline.
When i say you’re living in the past, that’s what I mean. You’re measuring with great precision the current location of the puck without thinking about how it got here or where it’s going next.
Because of demographics China was always going to experience some slower growth and political stress . But Xi is making it vastly worse.
That isn't borne out in reality.
Innovation, backed by investment, is likely to produce more innovation. China put telecommunications on its worldwide road map and is seeing the results now with 5g. The US in contrast, completely dropped the ball.
5G (and 5.5G/6G) will firm the backbone of basically everything (all areas of life) going forward.
China now has a prominent place at the various tables and workgroups that are designing future standards.
That's where the 'puck' is going to be on a technological level.
Demographics is a different problem and affects most developed nations. The EU has problems of its own in that regard. Those particular pucks are still a way off and largely depend on productivity (from an economic perspective) which is something I won't even speculate on as this present industrial revolution is already impacting 'work' as we know it. To a point that the EU has been looking at the notion of a universal income in anticipation for a world with literally less jobs available to the active population.
As an aside there are also two other factors that many people tend to overlook. Spermcounts are falling at unprecedented levels and bees are facing ever increasing problems.
That is a potential double whammy in terms of reproduction and feeding the world's super population. And let's not forget water. The world has to drink too and water scarcity is already a huge problem worldwide.
It is premature to make claims about demographics, though.
However, in terms of pucks and where they might be, China, much like the US before it, it actually trying to move the puck where it needs it to be. China has historically been quite insular in many ways. Now it is laying the foundations for influence in its immediate geographic area of influence along with Africa and South America. That is a huge part of the world.
All of that progess in technology and technological influence is a result of modern China.
And let's not forget that technology is advancing at its highest pace in history and nations are working to reduce dependencies on others (be they friend or foe).
The Russians had innovations in military hardware (eg S400, SU-57 -- look great on paper). It was backed by investment. How's that working out?
In a relatively free and open society, innovation + investment = good stuff. In an authoritarian society, innovation is punished more often than rewarded (because it threatens entrenched interests), investment is squandered through corruption.
For a time, China became more free, more open. For a time, there was some decentralization of power. That time is over. It doesn't matter whether you get it or not, it's over.
Corruption and money squandering aren't dependent on which type of government is in power. The US provoked the worst economic crisis in recent memory. China has squandered huge amounts too but here we are: 5G is fueling an industrial revolution. The US is not really part of it. Not even in terms of the technologies that run over it.
China is pushing that envelope and its companies are well placed to reap the rewards. Manufacturing, IoT, Industrial IoT, Airport management, campus management, ports, mining, the oil and gas industry, health, science, fintech...
This is a largely new scenario.
Yesterday Huawei made its annual pitch to the European market in Paris (Huawei Connect 2022) attended by the tech giants of Europe and representatives from the European Parliament. It was the sixth edition and centered on decarbonisation, renewable energies, sustainability, The EU Green Deal and digitalisation. There are billions of euros being ploughed into multiple initiatives.
China is pushing to knock the dollar off its perch too. The EU is doing the same with the euro.
It is the US which is attempting to dismantle world supply chains through extraterritorial sanctions, the latest of which are having a direct impact on technological advancement in sovereign states whose businesses depend on China for sales.
These are actions that help to create direct competitors to non-Chinese businesses and we know that in terms of manufacturing those technological advances end up being purchased by Chinese companies. Just ask ASML.
When some Chinese companies were cut off from using Corning glass variants, what happened? A competing product was developed within China and released this year (Kunlun glass). I imagine Corning wasn't happy with not only losing business but seeing a direct business threat arise as a result.
What are those sovereign states to do? Shrug their collective shoulders? No. For starters, work to erradicate US technology from their products. Not good for the US tech companies which ultimately depend on sales of finished products to China.
What is China to do? Develop its own alternative technologies and bring them to market too. It's doing just that.
The EU has its own plans to reduce independence on US technology.
In the world of EDA software, the big three (US companies basically) have largely failed to bring anything new to market in the last decade yet they have a stranglehold on it all the same. Instead, they are buying up highly specialised technology from startups and eradicating competition. The upshot? China is currently designing its own tools. Well, they already exist but need to improve.
And so the story goes on. Technology moves on too.
I'd venture that Apple is aware of what is happening and looking forward to seeing new players emerge. I doubt it really cares if those players are from the US.
The semiconductor representatives of the US (SEMI for example) probably do care of course. They even wrote directly to the White House to voice their concerns.
If China weren't a technology challenger, none of the US attempts to slow its technology progress down would have been put into effect.
You are in denial about China's military ambitions, which are in fact the crux of the competition. Nobody ever does a military buildup on the scale of what China is doing without using it, and China will likely use it against Taiwan first.
Still, if China doesn't use that military prowess by the end of the decade, The West will have had time to build up their forces in the Indo-Pacific, and China will be at its apex, soon to see its demographic decline that could result in halving its population by 2060.
China is pushing to knock the dollar off its perch too. The EU is doing the same with the euro.
Yuan has been lower lately, driven by China's economy losing steam.
Why drag the military into this? Technology doesn't understand its ultimate usage. This is about technology. Don't try to boil it all down to military usage.
None of the current 'sanctions' will have the slightest impact on China's military ambitions anyway.
It is perhaps ironic though that Corning does supply the US military and was one of the reasons sales to China were banned. Did that achieve anything positive? No.
Just lost business for Corning (less revenue for future R&D too) and the arrival of a new competitor in its market. Would Huawei have even bothered with developing Kunlun if it weren't for the ban? Probably not. There you go. That situation will be played out across the entire technology base.
It is not solely about military technology and Blinken himself said as much yesterday:
"We are at an inflection point,”. “Technology will in many ways retool our economies. It will reform our militaries. It will reshape the lives of people across the planet. And so it’s profoundly a source of national strength.”
Is that clear enough for you? Technology. Pure and simple and in every area of our daily lives (which goes far, far beyond military usage).
That is why the US is scrambling to get back in the race.
This thread is about technology. Yes, there is an inevitable political connection here but it should keep technology at its core. There is no need to go OTT with the military angle.
Yeah, China is developing its military capacity. So is the US. So is just about anyone with a big enough budget to pay for it.
A good summary of the U.S. Semiconductor policy and sanctions on China.
In essence, this is about delaying China's ability to source semiconductors internally, in an effort to reduce the risk of invasion of Taiwan, until the U.S. has build up its force structure in a 2027 timeframe, at which time, it would be very costly militarily for China to invade.
So yeah, National Security of the U.S. and it's allies, and a response to China's militarism.
LOL This sounds imperialism.
Imperialism would be China attacking Taiwan, which does not belong to the PRC, nor which was never occupied by the PRC.
Excellent. Apple has the power to transform a laggard into a leader (see TSMC), so a decision like this by apple really matters. This is a great example of how more aggressive US policy can counter Xi’s anti-democracy crusade.
US policy won't change that angle.
It's important to remember that Trump's number one reason for starting a trade war with China was the trade defecit. It wanted to increase sales to China.
The other angle to what was going on was the rise of China as a technological competitor (and with all the cards to eventually trump the US).
Standard moves by standard rules weren't working so Trump began using executive orders to make things happen.
Apple is well aware of that possibility and probably chose to put any plans it had on hold so as to avoid problems down the line.
Once the China has eliminated US technology from the problem supply lines I expect Apple will try again.
In fact, I think there are multiple signs that Xi has actually weakened the capabilities of the Chinese juggernaut. So far, China’s power and general effectiveness are so great that these signs seem to have gone largely unnoticed, but I think they’re there. The three big ones are: Slowing growth, an international backlash against China, and missteps related to the Covid pandemic.
It’s time to consider the possibility that for all his self-aggrandizement, Xi Jinping is just not that competent of a leader.
Lots of people will disagree but it can't change the core facts (which most people actually agree on).
China is on an accelerated path of technological advancement. That is feared within the US and that is why we are seeing these extreme actions aimed at - slowing down - that progress.
Progress that cannot be stopped.
Apple wants to take advantage of part of that progress through the latest industrial revolution (digital) where China is sitting at the forefront (industrial 5G, advanced logistics, advanced manufacturing and distribution, decarbonisation etc). Digital is now everywhere but China has progressed further than anyone else.
Of course, it makes sense for a heavily Chinese dependent Apple to make fall back plans but China is key to Apple at every conceivable level.
You’re living in 2010
Hardly. We are on the cusp of some real technological advancements and Chinese companies are involved.
Some problems have been decades waiting for resolution. Getting over Shannon's law has been done (Huawei has brought the technical solution to market). Moving beyond von Neumann architecture has finally been achieved (Huawei again). Silicon based architectures are probably going to be replaced relatively soon (China is putting a lot of effort into that). Take a look at patent applications and approvals. China is right up there with the best of the best.
5G roll out and technical implementation plus services to run on them in industry. China again is way out in front.
AI, Quantum computing,...
It would not be crazy to think it isn't about China 'catching up' but China 'leapfrogging' most nations.
That is most definitely not 2010.
You are chronicling the output and achievements of the system put in place by Deng—they are the fruit of seeds sewn in the 20 years from about 1990 to about 2010. That is what Xi inherited and is now squandering. China is at a peak and is poised for a major decline.
When i say you’re living in the past, that’s what I mean. You’re measuring with great precision the current location of the puck without thinking about how it got here or where it’s going next.
Because of demographics China was always going to experience some slower growth and political stress . But Xi is making it vastly worse.
That isn't borne out in reality.
Innovation, backed by investment, is likely to produce more innovation. China put telecommunications on its worldwide road map and is seeing the results now with 5g. The US in contrast, completely dropped the ball.
5G (and 5.5G/6G) will firm the backbone of basically everything (all areas of life) going forward.
China now has a prominent place at the various tables and workgroups that are designing future standards.
That's where the 'puck' is going to be on a technological level.
Demographics is a different problem and affects most developed nations. The EU has problems of its own in that regard. Those particular pucks are still a way off and largely depend on productivity (from an economic perspective) which is something I won't even speculate on as this present industrial revolution is already impacting 'work' as we know it. To a point that the EU has been looking at the notion of a universal income in anticipation for a world with literally less jobs available to the active population.
As an aside there are also two other factors that many people tend to overlook. Spermcounts are falling at unprecedented levels and bees are facing ever increasing problems.
That is a potential double whammy in terms of reproduction and feeding the world's super population. And let's not forget water. The world has to drink too and water scarcity is already a huge problem worldwide.
It is premature to make claims about demographics, though.
However, in terms of pucks and where they might be, China, much like the US before it, it actually trying to move the puck where it needs it to be. China has historically been quite insular in many ways. Now it is laying the foundations for influence in its immediate geographic area of influence along with Africa and South America. That is a huge part of the world.
All of that progess in technology and technological influence is a result of modern China.
And let's not forget that technology is advancing at its highest pace in history and nations are working to reduce dependencies on others (be they friend or foe).
The Russians had innovations in military hardware (eg S400, SU-57 -- look great on paper). It was backed by investment. How's that working out?
In a relatively free and open society, innovation + investment = good stuff. In an authoritarian society, innovation is punished more often than rewarded (because it threatens entrenched interests), investment is squandered through corruption.
For a time, China became more free, more open. For a time, there was some decentralization of power. That time is over. It doesn't matter whether you get it or not, it's over.
Corruption and money squandering aren't dependent on which type of government is in power. The US provoked the worst economic crisis in recent memory. China has squandered huge amounts too but here we are: 5G is fueling an industrial revolution. The US is not really part of it. Not even in terms of the technologies that run over it.
China is pushing that envelope and its companies are well placed to reap the rewards. Manufacturing, IoT, Industrial IoT, Airport management, campus management, ports, mining, the oil and gas industry, health, science, fintech...
This is a largely new scenario.
Yesterday Huawei made its annual pitch to the European market in Paris (Huawei Connect 2022) attended by the tech giants of Europe and representatives from the European Parliament. It was the sixth edition and centered on decarbonisation, renewable energies, sustainability, The EU Green Deal and digitalisation. There are billions of euros being ploughed into multiple initiatives.
China is pushing to knock the dollar off its perch too. The EU is doing the same with the euro.
It is the US which is attempting to dismantle world supply chains through extraterritorial sanctions, the latest of which are having a direct impact on technological advancement in sovereign states whose businesses depend on China for sales.
These are actions that help to create direct competitors to non-Chinese businesses and we know that in terms of manufacturing those technological advances end up being purchased by Chinese companies. Just ask ASML.
When some Chinese companies were cut off from using Corning glass variants, what happened? A competing product was developed within China and released this year (Kunlun glass). I imagine Corning wasn't happy with not only losing business but seeing a direct business threat arise as a result.
What are those sovereign states to do? Shrug their collective shoulders? No. For starters, work to erradicate US technology from their products. Not good for the US tech companies which ultimately depend on sales of finished products to China.
What is China to do? Develop its own alternative technologies and bring them to market too. It's doing just that.
The EU has its own plans to reduce independence on US technology.
In the world of EDA software, the big three (US companies basically) have largely failed to bring anything new to market in the last decade yet they have a stranglehold on it all the same. Instead, they are buying up highly specialised technology from startups and eradicating competition. The upshot? China is currently designing its own tools. Well, they already exist but need to improve.
And so the story goes on. Technology moves on too.
I'd venture that Apple is aware of what is happening and looking forward to seeing new players emerge. I doubt it really cares if those players are from the US.
The semiconductor representatives of the US (SEMI for example) probably do care of course. They even wrote directly to the White House to voice their concerns.
If China weren't a technology challenger, none of the US attempts to slow its technology progress down would have been put into effect.
You are in denial about China's military ambitions, which are in fact the crux of the competition. Nobody ever does a military buildup on the scale of what China is doing without using it, and China will likely use it against Taiwan first.
Still, if China doesn't use that military prowess by the end of the decade, The West will have had time to build up their forces in the Indo-Pacific, and China will be at its apex, soon to see its demographic decline that could result in halving its population by 2060.
China is pushing to knock the dollar off its perch too. The EU is doing the same with the euro.
Yuan has been lower lately, driven by China's economy losing steam.
Why drag the military into this? Technology doesn't understand its ultimate usage. This is about technology. Don't try to boil it all down to military usage.
None of the current 'sanctions' will have the slightest impact on China's military ambitions anyway.
It is perhaps ironic though that Corning does supply the US military and was one of the reasons sales to China were banned. Did that achieve anything positive? No.
Just lost business for Corning (less revenue for future R&D too) and the arrival of a new competitor in its market. Would Huawei have even bothered with developing Kunlun if it weren't for the ban? Probably not. There you go. That situation will be played out across the entire technology base.
It is not solely about military technology and Blinken himself said as much yesterday:
"We are at an inflection point,”. “Technology will in many ways retool our economies. It will reform our militaries. It will reshape the lives of people across the planet. And so it’s profoundly a source of national strength.”
Is that clear enough for you? Technology. Pure and simple and in every area of our daily lives (which goes far, far beyond military usage).
That is why the US is scrambling to get back in the race.
This thread is about technology. Yes, there is an inevitable political connection here but it should keep technology at its core. There is no need to go OTT with the military angle.
Yeah, China is developing its military capacity. So is the US. So is just about anyone with a big enough budget to pay for it.
A good summary of the U.S. Semiconductor policy and sanctions on China.
In essence, this is about delaying China's ability to source semiconductors internally, in an effort to reduce the risk of invasion of Taiwan, until the U.S. has build up its force structure in a 2027 timeframe, at which time, it would be very costly militarily for China to invade.
So yeah, National Security of the U.S. and it's allies, and a response to China's militarism.
LOL This sounds imperialism.
Imperialism would be China attacking Taiwan, which does not belong to the PRC, nor which was never occupied by the PRC.
Excellent. Apple has the power to transform a laggard into a leader (see TSMC), so a decision like this by apple really matters. This is a great example of how more aggressive US policy can counter Xi’s anti-democracy crusade.
US policy won't change that angle.
It's important to remember that Trump's number one reason for starting a trade war with China was the trade defecit. It wanted to increase sales to China.
The other angle to what was going on was the rise of China as a technological competitor (and with all the cards to eventually trump the US).
Standard moves by standard rules weren't working so Trump began using executive orders to make things happen.
Apple is well aware of that possibility and probably chose to put any plans it had on hold so as to avoid problems down the line.
Once the China has eliminated US technology from the problem supply lines I expect Apple will try again.
In fact, I think there are multiple signs that Xi has actually weakened the capabilities of the Chinese juggernaut. So far, China’s power and general effectiveness are so great that these signs seem to have gone largely unnoticed, but I think they’re there. The three big ones are: Slowing growth, an international backlash against China, and missteps related to the Covid pandemic.
It’s time to consider the possibility that for all his self-aggrandizement, Xi Jinping is just not that competent of a leader.
Lots of people will disagree but it can't change the core facts (which most people actually agree on).
China is on an accelerated path of technological advancement. That is feared within the US and that is why we are seeing these extreme actions aimed at - slowing down - that progress.
Progress that cannot be stopped.
Apple wants to take advantage of part of that progress through the latest industrial revolution (digital) where China is sitting at the forefront (industrial 5G, advanced logistics, advanced manufacturing and distribution, decarbonisation etc). Digital is now everywhere but China has progressed further than anyone else.
Of course, it makes sense for a heavily Chinese dependent Apple to make fall back plans but China is key to Apple at every conceivable level.
You’re living in 2010
Hardly. We are on the cusp of some real technological advancements and Chinese companies are involved.
Some problems have been decades waiting for resolution. Getting over Shannon's law has been done (Huawei has brought the technical solution to market). Moving beyond von Neumann architecture has finally been achieved (Huawei again). Silicon based architectures are probably going to be replaced relatively soon (China is putting a lot of effort into that). Take a look at patent applications and approvals. China is right up there with the best of the best.
5G roll out and technical implementation plus services to run on them in industry. China again is way out in front.
AI, Quantum computing,...
It would not be crazy to think it isn't about China 'catching up' but China 'leapfrogging' most nations.
That is most definitely not 2010.
You are chronicling the output and achievements of the system put in place by Deng—they are the fruit of seeds sewn in the 20 years from about 1990 to about 2010. That is what Xi inherited and is now squandering. China is at a peak and is poised for a major decline.
When i say you’re living in the past, that’s what I mean. You’re measuring with great precision the current location of the puck without thinking about how it got here or where it’s going next.
Because of demographics China was always going to experience some slower growth and political stress . But Xi is making it vastly worse.
That isn't borne out in reality.
Innovation, backed by investment, is likely to produce more innovation. China put telecommunications on its worldwide road map and is seeing the results now with 5g. The US in contrast, completely dropped the ball.
5G (and 5.5G/6G) will firm the backbone of basically everything (all areas of life) going forward.
China now has a prominent place at the various tables and workgroups that are designing future standards.
That's where the 'puck' is going to be on a technological level.
Demographics is a different problem and affects most developed nations. The EU has problems of its own in that regard. Those particular pucks are still a way off and largely depend on productivity (from an economic perspective) which is something I won't even speculate on as this present industrial revolution is already impacting 'work' as we know it. To a point that the EU has been looking at the notion of a universal income in anticipation for a world with literally less jobs available to the active population.
As an aside there are also two other factors that many people tend to overlook. Spermcounts are falling at unprecedented levels and bees are facing ever increasing problems.
That is a potential double whammy in terms of reproduction and feeding the world's super population. And let's not forget water. The world has to drink too and water scarcity is already a huge problem worldwide.
It is premature to make claims about demographics, though.
However, in terms of pucks and where they might be, China, much like the US before it, it actually trying to move the puck where it needs it to be. China has historically been quite insular in many ways. Now it is laying the foundations for influence in its immediate geographic area of influence along with Africa and South America. That is a huge part of the world.
All of that progess in technology and technological influence is a result of modern China.
And let's not forget that technology is advancing at its highest pace in history and nations are working to reduce dependencies on others (be they friend or foe).
The Russians had innovations in military hardware (eg S400, SU-57 -- look great on paper). It was backed by investment. How's that working out?
In a relatively free and open society, innovation + investment = good stuff. In an authoritarian society, innovation is punished more often than rewarded (because it threatens entrenched interests), investment is squandered through corruption.
For a time, China became more free, more open. For a time, there was some decentralization of power. That time is over. It doesn't matter whether you get it or not, it's over.
Corruption and money squandering aren't dependent on which type of government is in power. The US provoked the worst economic crisis in recent memory. China has squandered huge amounts too but here we are: 5G is fueling an industrial revolution. The US is not really part of it. Not even in terms of the technologies that run over it.
China is pushing that envelope and its companies are well placed to reap the rewards. Manufacturing, IoT, Industrial IoT, Airport management, campus management, ports, mining, the oil and gas industry, health, science, fintech...
This is a largely new scenario.
Yesterday Huawei made its annual pitch to the European market in Paris (Huawei Connect 2022) attended by the tech giants of Europe and representatives from the European Parliament. It was the sixth edition and centered on decarbonisation, renewable energies, sustainability, The EU Green Deal and digitalisation. There are billions of euros being ploughed into multiple initiatives.
China is pushing to knock the dollar off its perch too. The EU is doing the same with the euro.
It is the US which is attempting to dismantle world supply chains through extraterritorial sanctions, the latest of which are having a direct impact on technological advancement in sovereign states whose businesses depend on China for sales.
These are actions that help to create direct competitors to non-Chinese businesses and we know that in terms of manufacturing those technological advances end up being purchased by Chinese companies. Just ask ASML.
When some Chinese companies were cut off from using Corning glass variants, what happened? A competing product was developed within China and released this year (Kunlun glass). I imagine Corning wasn't happy with not only losing business but seeing a direct business threat arise as a result.
What are those sovereign states to do? Shrug their collective shoulders? No. For starters, work to erradicate US technology from their products. Not good for the US tech companies which ultimately depend on sales of finished products to China.
What is China to do? Develop its own alternative technologies and bring them to market too. It's doing just that.
The EU has its own plans to reduce independence on US technology.
In the world of EDA software, the big three (US companies basically) have largely failed to bring anything new to market in the last decade yet they have a stranglehold on it all the same. Instead, they are buying up highly specialised technology from startups and eradicating competition. The upshot? China is currently designing its own tools. Well, they already exist but need to improve.
And so the story goes on. Technology moves on too.
I'd venture that Apple is aware of what is happening and looking forward to seeing new players emerge. I doubt it really cares if those players are from the US.
The semiconductor representatives of the US (SEMI for example) probably do care of course. They even wrote directly to the White House to voice their concerns.
If China weren't a technology challenger, none of the US attempts to slow its technology progress down would have been put into effect.
You are in denial about China's military ambitions, which are in fact the crux of the competition. Nobody ever does a military buildup on the scale of what China is doing without using it, and China will likely use it against Taiwan first.
Still, if China doesn't use that military prowess by the end of the decade, The West will have had time to build up their forces in the Indo-Pacific, and China will be at its apex, soon to see its demographic decline that could result in halving its population by 2060.
China is pushing to knock the dollar off its perch too. The EU is doing the same with the euro.
Yuan has been lower lately, driven by China's economy losing steam.
Why drag the military into this? Technology doesn't understand its ultimate usage. This is about technology. Don't try to boil it all down to military usage.
None of the current 'sanctions' will have the slightest impact on China's military ambitions anyway.
It is perhaps ironic though that Corning does supply the US military and was one of the reasons sales to China were banned. Did that achieve anything positive? No.
Just lost business for Corning (less revenue for future R&D too) and the arrival of a new competitor in its market. Would Huawei have even bothered with developing Kunlun if it weren't for the ban? Probably not. There you go. That situation will be played out across the entire technology base.
It is not solely about military technology and Blinken himself said as much yesterday:
"We are at an inflection point,”. “Technology will in many ways retool our economies. It will reform our militaries. It will reshape the lives of people across the planet. And so it’s profoundly a source of national strength.”
Is that clear enough for you? Technology. Pure and simple and in every area of our daily lives (which goes far, far beyond military usage).
That is why the US is scrambling to get back in the race.
This thread is about technology. Yes, there is an inevitable political connection here but it should keep technology at its core. There is no need to go OTT with the military angle.
Yeah, China is developing its military capacity. So is the US. So is just about anyone with a big enough budget to pay for it.
A good summary of the U.S. Semiconductor policy and sanctions on China.
In essence, this is about delaying China's ability to source semiconductors internally, in an effort to reduce the risk of invasion of Taiwan, until the U.S. has build up its force structure in a 2027 timeframe, at which time, it would be very costly militarily for China to invade.
So yeah, National Security of the U.S. and it's allies, and a response to China's militarism.
LOL This sounds imperialism.
Imperialism would be China attacking Taiwan, which does not belong to the PRC, nor which was never occupied by the PRC.
Comments
Because of demographics China was always going to experience some slower growth and political stress . But Xi is making it vastly worse.
Innovation, backed by investment, is likely to produce more innovation. China put telecommunications on its worldwide road map and is seeing the results now with 5g. The US in contrast, completely dropped the ball.
5G (and 5.5G/6G) will firm the backbone of basically everything (all areas of life) going forward.
China now has a prominent place at the various tables and workgroups that are designing future standards.
That's where the 'puck' is going to be on a technological level.
Demographics is a different problem and affects most developed nations. The EU has problems of its own in that regard. Those particular pucks are still a way off and largely depend on productivity (from an economic perspective) which is something I won't even speculate on as this present industrial revolution is already impacting 'work' as we know it. To a point that the EU has been looking at the notion of a universal income in anticipation for a world with literally less jobs available to the active population.
As an aside there are also two other factors that many people tend to overlook. Spermcounts are falling at unprecedented levels and bees are facing ever increasing problems.
That is a potential double whammy in terms of reproduction and feeding the world's super population. And let's not forget water. The world has to drink too and water scarcity is already a huge problem worldwide.
It is premature to make claims about demographics, though.
However, in terms of pucks and where they might be, China, much like the US before it, it actually trying to move the puck where it needs it to be. China has historically been quite insular in many ways. Now it is laying the foundations for influence in its immediate geographic area of influence along with Africa and South America. That is a huge part of the world.
All of that progess in technology and technological influence is a result of modern China.
And let's not forget that technology is advancing at its highest pace in history and nations are working to reduce dependencies on others (be they friend or foe).
In a relatively free and open society, innovation + investment = good stuff.
In an authoritarian society, innovation is punished more often than rewarded (because it threatens entrenched interests), investment is squandered through corruption.
For a time, China became more free, more open. For a time, there was some decentralization of power. That time is over. It doesn't matter whether you get it or not, it's over.
China is pushing that envelope and its companies are well placed to reap the rewards. Manufacturing, IoT, Industrial IoT, Airport management, campus management, ports, mining, the oil and gas industry, health, science, fintech...
This is a largely new scenario.
Yesterday Huawei made its annual pitch to the European market in Paris (Huawei Connect 2022) attended by the tech giants of Europe and representatives from the European Parliament. It was the sixth edition and centered on decarbonisation, renewable energies, sustainability, The EU Green Deal and digitalisation. There are billions of euros being ploughed into multiple initiatives.
China is pushing to knock the dollar off its perch too. The EU is doing the same with the euro.
It is the US which is attempting to dismantle world supply chains through extraterritorial sanctions, the latest of which are having a direct impact on technological advancement in sovereign states whose businesses depend on China for sales.
These are actions that help to create direct competitors to non-Chinese businesses and we know that in terms of manufacturing those technological advances end up being purchased by Chinese companies. Just ask ASML.
When some Chinese companies were cut off from using Corning glass variants, what happened? A competing product was developed within China and released this year (Kunlun glass). I imagine Corning wasn't happy with not only losing business but seeing a direct business threat arise as a result.
What are those sovereign states to do? Shrug their collective shoulders? No. For starters, work to erradicate US technology from their products. Not good for the US tech companies which ultimately depend on sales of finished products to China.
What is China to do? Develop its own alternative technologies and bring them to market too. It's doing just that.
The EU has its own plans to reduce independence on US technology.
In the world of EDA software, the big three (US companies basically) have largely failed to bring anything new to market in the last decade yet they have a stranglehold on it all the same. Instead, they are buying up highly specialised technology from startups and eradicating competition. The upshot? China is currently designing its own tools. Well, they already exist but need to improve.
And so the story goes on. Technology moves on too.
I'd venture that Apple is aware of what is happening and looking forward to seeing new players emerge. I doubt it really cares if those players are from the US.
The semiconductor representatives of the US (SEMI for example) probably do care of course. They even wrote directly to the White House to voice their concerns.
If China weren't a technology challenger, none of the US attempts to slow its technology progress down would have been put into effect.
Still, if China doesn't use that military prowess by the end of the decade, The West will have had time to build up their forces in the Indo-Pacific, and China will be at its apex, soon to see its demographic decline that could result in halving its population by 2060.
https://www.macrotrends.net/2548/euro-dollar-exchange-rate-historical-chart
The Euro is at historic lows wrt the dollar.
https://www.exchangerates.org.uk/CNY-USD-exchange-rate-history.html
Yuan has been lower lately, driven by China's economy losing steam.
Here's a good video on why the Yuan will not be a challenger to the dollar as a reserve currency.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hBBIH67TCBg
Oh wait, China has a taxation system as well, and actual tax laws as well.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qMaWegICQHA
WRT China's military buildup, that's up to the country to decide. Given that China has in the past acquired territory through warfare, why would the West not prepare itself for more of the same?
The fact that China wants to establish alternative rules of order, where authoritarian countries enact alternative sets of rules for the world, is of course, worrisome to the West, and is the reason behind populations in the West being less likely to be supportive of unfettered trade with China. See the example of Hong Kong, which has lost its freedoms, and is no longer considered a safe place to trade.
https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/12/asia/hong-kong-population-record-fall-covid-intl-hnk/index.html
Freedoms intact; not so much.
None of the current 'sanctions' will have the slightest impact on China's military ambitions anyway.
It is perhaps ironic though that Corning does supply the US military and was one of the reasons sales to China were banned. Did that achieve anything positive? No.
Just lost business for Corning (less revenue for future R&D too) and the arrival of a new competitor in its market. Would Huawei have even bothered with developing Kunlun if it weren't for the ban? Probably not. There you go. That situation will be played out across the entire technology base.
It is not solely about military technology and Blinken himself said as much yesterday:
"We are at an inflection point,”. “Technology will in many ways retool our economies. It will reform our militaries. It will reshape the lives of people across the planet. And so it’s profoundly a source of national strength.”
Is that clear enough for you? Technology. Pure and simple and in every area of our daily lives (which goes far, far beyond military usage).
That is why the US is scrambling to get back in the race.
This thread is about technology. Yes, there is an inevitable political connection here but it should keep technology at its core. There is no need to go OTT with the military angle.
Yeah, China is developing its military capacity. So is the US. So is just about anyone with a big enough budget to pay for it.
Seriously? This is your argument?
The West has been explicit about the threat of China's militarization, along with China's human rights violations. The attempt of China in creating its own authoritarian rules of order, and enlisting other authoritarians, is obvious. Even the EU has been reevaluating its trade with China over human rights violations, but now is also concerned about China's military power in the Pacific, to the point of assigning NATO naval forces to the Pacific. It's hard to imagine that Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and its alliance with China, hasn't been a massive wakeup call to the EU.
In the short and medium term, starving China of semiconductor technology buys time for the West to buildup forces in the Indo-Pacific, primarily to protect Taiwan from invasion, and bolster the freedom of navigation in the South China Sea.
In the longer term, it slows China's ascent, and pulls China's apex to the mid-30's, before it declines, as do most authoritarian powers that overreach. What happens to China, that has invested massive amounts into real estate and infrastructure, when the population collapses, which the probability is that it will halve by 2060?
China's economy is a house of cards, and further isolation by Xi's policies will only slow growth and create instability.
You must have been fond of Franco when you were younger...
A good summary of the U.S. Semiconductor policy and sanctions on China.
In essence, this is about delaying China's ability to source semiconductors internally, in an effort to reduce the risk of invasion of Taiwan, until the U.S. has build up its force structure in a 2027 timeframe, at which time, it would be very costly militarily for China to invade.
So yeah, National Security of the U.S. and it's allies, and a response to China's militarism.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tQ_HeCalYq8\
Good
Might be that Xi is the driving force in conflict with the West.