Tim Cook casts doubt on new M2 MacBook Pros in 2022
Based on comments from Apple CEO Tim Cook during the quarterly earnings report, the odds of a November release for a new 14-inch and 16-inch MacBook Pro have dropped.
16-inch MacBook Pro
The fall is Apple's main product launch period, with the annual iPhone refresh being the centerpiece of events. Flanking them are Apple's other ecosystem changes, covering product areas including the iPad, the Apple Watch, and the Mac, which can sometimes get their own events.
Apple's M2 processor debuted in 2022, with new MacBook Air and 13-inch MacBook Pro models. And, before that, the incredibly powerful Mac Studio found its way to store shelves.
The obvious next choice for the M2 is in the 14- and 16-inch MacBook Pro. That update has been rumored for some time. November has been the most likely timeframe.
A combination of a fall release cycle with atypical timing, and comments made by Tim Cook directly, have called a November event into question.
So now, we may not even see anything new until 2023.
However, you can still pull out details based on what is said.
During the call, which saw Apple CEO Tim Cook and CFO Luca Maestri discuss generally favorable revenues and currency challenges, the pair also broke down details based on each unit.
For the Mac, Maestri spoke about the "great quarter" for the Mac unit, achieving an "all-time revenue record of $11.5 billion, up 25% year-over-year despite significant FX headwinds." Maestri points out three things that helped the quarter, including the launch of the M2 MacBook Air and 13-inch MacBook Pro.
Second was Apple's ability to "satisfy pent-up demand that carried forward from the significant supply constraints we faced during the July quarter," explained the CFO. Lastly, as the supply position improved, the channel was able to be filled completely.
Maestri also referenced how Apple has attracted upgraders and new customers, increasing the install base to an all-time high. "In fact, we set a quarterly record for upgraders while nearly half of customers buying Macs during the quarter were new to the device."
Apple CEO Tim Cook during a fall special event.
While good for the quarter gone by, Maestri offered some guidance for the fiscal Q1 2023 quarter -- the crucial holiday quarter. Maestri expects the quarter will see a deceleration of performance growth for the company as a whole.
A lot of this is a 10% negative impact on year-on-year growth caused by currency exchanges, but he also highlights the Mac.
"Second, on Mac, in addition to increasing FX headwinds, we have a very challenging compare against last year, which had the benefit of the launch and associated channel feel of our newly redesigned MacBook Pro with M1," the financial chief offered. "Therefore, we expect Mac revenue to decline substantially year-over-year during the December quarter."
The other curious comment is from Cook himself. In a section about retail, Cook thanks Apple employees across the company, and adds color about what's being sold in the quarter.
In opening statements, Cook addressed the analysts directly.
"As we approach the holiday season, with our product lineup set, I'd like to share my gratitude to our retail AppleCare and channel teams for the work they are doing to support customers."
Right in the middle of that sentence is the key. Apple is entering the busy shopping season "with our product lineup set."
In discussing why, he referred to the high Mac revenue of Q1 2022, brought on by the M1 MacBook Pro launches. This could be a telling element depending on how you view evidence by omission.
Maestri and Cook don't talk about future product launches, as it is usually left to Apple's PR team to inform of upcoming events. This hasn't stopped them from saying another event is on the way or that new Macs are inbound.
The M2 MacBook Air launched during the summer, but 14-inch and 16-inch MacBook Pro updates to M2 chips seem unlikely before 2022's end.
After all, if there were to be a launch in Q1 2023, for the Q1 2022 to still be better and be worthy enough to reference M1 launches, the Q1 2023 Macs would have to be anticipated as low-sellers in comparison.
No company's leadership in its right mind would tell investors that the launch of products in the next quarter will be underwhelming. The most likely reason is that there won't be an event or release of any sort.
And, Cook's clear "product lineup set" remark practically kills off any other speculation of an event.
If Apple were to have more products to launch, such as new Macs, Cook wouldn't knowingly say a lineup has been "set," as that says there's nothing more to come.
This late in the year and with other commentary in play, it seems like the product catalog has been completely finalized.
Sadly, we can't even stretch things by questioning if a change in chip constitutes a new model for a Mac. Previous refreshes of the Mac line that were simple specification bumps were given at least a press release announcement and have been counted as full model upgrades in the past.
As a more recent example, take the 2022 iPad Pro refresh, which largely consisted of Apple sticking an M2 inside instead of the M1, and adding the Apple Pencil hover feature, while keeping practically everything else static about the models. This relatively simple pair of changes was important enough for Apple to perform a press release launch, and it would be reasonable to expect the same for a Mac or MacBook Pro update in a similar vein.
The 14-inch MacBook Pro and 16-inch MacBook Pro benefited from a full product launch.
Further evidence of a late 2022 refresh being unlikely is in the cadence of other Apple Silicon hardware updates. It took Apple a year and a half to go from the M1 MacBook Air and 13-inch MacBook Pro to the M2 versions of each.
By contrast, the M1 14-inch MacBook Pro and 16-inch counterpart were launched in October 2021, making them just a year old.
Being only a year old isn't a barrier for Apple's hardware updates, as in the Touch Bar era of Intel MacBook models, the time between updates repeatedly went down to around a year. So it would generally be possible if components were available.
And components are also a problem, specifically the M2 chips. Apple waited 11 months between introducing the M1 and the faster M1 Pro and M1 Max chips.
With M2 landing in June 2022, it seems extremely early in the chip cycle to bring out the Pro and Max versions that would go into updated MacBook Pro models.
All of this firmly puts forward the idea of Apple truly taking a rest from product launches for 2022. This pushes new Macs into early 2023.
Apple can't lie in earnings reports, lest they fall afoul of the Securities and Exchange Commission, or an assortment of other regulatory bodies internationally. There's enough wiggle-room in Cook's statement, that if you squint and look at it just so, Apple rolling out a new MacBook Pro or Mac mini in the same form factor before the end of the year could be construed as an enhancement or other similar legal dodge to avoid SEC ire.
But, it would be new phrasing for Apple. And, Cook and Maestri have been at this long enough to make sure that they don't say anything that requires a regulatory dance to work around after-the fact.
A better way to avoid that ire is to not have said anything at all about the product lineup during the heavily scripted earnings announcement, going into the holiday season.
But they did. And it wasn't because they were caught off-guard.
Read on AppleInsider
16-inch MacBook Pro
The fall is Apple's main product launch period, with the annual iPhone refresh being the centerpiece of events. Flanking them are Apple's other ecosystem changes, covering product areas including the iPad, the Apple Watch, and the Mac, which can sometimes get their own events.
Apple's M2 processor debuted in 2022, with new MacBook Air and 13-inch MacBook Pro models. And, before that, the incredibly powerful Mac Studio found its way to store shelves.
The obvious next choice for the M2 is in the 14- and 16-inch MacBook Pro. That update has been rumored for some time. November has been the most likely timeframe.
A combination of a fall release cycle with atypical timing, and comments made by Tim Cook directly, have called a November event into question.
So now, we may not even see anything new until 2023.
Maestri's "challenging compare" and Cook's "set" lineup
A couple of things were mentioned in a call to analysts following Apple's quarterly results release. As is typical for a results call, Apple doesn't offer opinions or details of yet-to-launch products.However, you can still pull out details based on what is said.
During the call, which saw Apple CEO Tim Cook and CFO Luca Maestri discuss generally favorable revenues and currency challenges, the pair also broke down details based on each unit.
For the Mac, Maestri spoke about the "great quarter" for the Mac unit, achieving an "all-time revenue record of $11.5 billion, up 25% year-over-year despite significant FX headwinds." Maestri points out three things that helped the quarter, including the launch of the M2 MacBook Air and 13-inch MacBook Pro.
Second was Apple's ability to "satisfy pent-up demand that carried forward from the significant supply constraints we faced during the July quarter," explained the CFO. Lastly, as the supply position improved, the channel was able to be filled completely.
Maestri also referenced how Apple has attracted upgraders and new customers, increasing the install base to an all-time high. "In fact, we set a quarterly record for upgraders while nearly half of customers buying Macs during the quarter were new to the device."
Apple CEO Tim Cook during a fall special event.
While good for the quarter gone by, Maestri offered some guidance for the fiscal Q1 2023 quarter -- the crucial holiday quarter. Maestri expects the quarter will see a deceleration of performance growth for the company as a whole.
A lot of this is a 10% negative impact on year-on-year growth caused by currency exchanges, but he also highlights the Mac.
"Second, on Mac, in addition to increasing FX headwinds, we have a very challenging compare against last year, which had the benefit of the launch and associated channel feel of our newly redesigned MacBook Pro with M1," the financial chief offered. "Therefore, we expect Mac revenue to decline substantially year-over-year during the December quarter."
The other curious comment is from Cook himself. In a section about retail, Cook thanks Apple employees across the company, and adds color about what's being sold in the quarter.
In opening statements, Cook addressed the analysts directly.
"As we approach the holiday season, with our product lineup set, I'd like to share my gratitude to our retail AppleCare and channel teams for the work they are doing to support customers."
Right in the middle of that sentence is the key. Apple is entering the busy shopping season "with our product lineup set."
Interpreting the leaves
Maestri's comments paint the fiscal Q1 2023 quarter as being tough for Mac revenue. The reasons offered for his forecast are rooted in known past events and in good educated guesses.In discussing why, he referred to the high Mac revenue of Q1 2022, brought on by the M1 MacBook Pro launches. This could be a telling element depending on how you view evidence by omission.
Maestri and Cook don't talk about future product launches, as it is usually left to Apple's PR team to inform of upcoming events. This hasn't stopped them from saying another event is on the way or that new Macs are inbound.
The M2 MacBook Air launched during the summer, but 14-inch and 16-inch MacBook Pro updates to M2 chips seem unlikely before 2022's end.
After all, if there were to be a launch in Q1 2023, for the Q1 2022 to still be better and be worthy enough to reference M1 launches, the Q1 2023 Macs would have to be anticipated as low-sellers in comparison.
No company's leadership in its right mind would tell investors that the launch of products in the next quarter will be underwhelming. The most likely reason is that there won't be an event or release of any sort.
And, Cook's clear "product lineup set" remark practically kills off any other speculation of an event.
If Apple were to have more products to launch, such as new Macs, Cook wouldn't knowingly say a lineup has been "set," as that says there's nothing more to come.
This late in the year and with other commentary in play, it seems like the product catalog has been completely finalized.
Another launch is doubtful
After months of rumors about M2 changes, including adding M2 to the 14-inch MacBook Pro and 16-inch MacBook Pro and an expected overhaul of the Mac mini, the financial commentary makes it seem very unlikely that there will be another launch in 2022 for Macs.Sadly, we can't even stretch things by questioning if a change in chip constitutes a new model for a Mac. Previous refreshes of the Mac line that were simple specification bumps were given at least a press release announcement and have been counted as full model upgrades in the past.
As a more recent example, take the 2022 iPad Pro refresh, which largely consisted of Apple sticking an M2 inside instead of the M1, and adding the Apple Pencil hover feature, while keeping practically everything else static about the models. This relatively simple pair of changes was important enough for Apple to perform a press release launch, and it would be reasonable to expect the same for a Mac or MacBook Pro update in a similar vein.
The 14-inch MacBook Pro and 16-inch MacBook Pro benefited from a full product launch.
Further evidence of a late 2022 refresh being unlikely is in the cadence of other Apple Silicon hardware updates. It took Apple a year and a half to go from the M1 MacBook Air and 13-inch MacBook Pro to the M2 versions of each.
By contrast, the M1 14-inch MacBook Pro and 16-inch counterpart were launched in October 2021, making them just a year old.
Being only a year old isn't a barrier for Apple's hardware updates, as in the Touch Bar era of Intel MacBook models, the time between updates repeatedly went down to around a year. So it would generally be possible if components were available.
And components are also a problem, specifically the M2 chips. Apple waited 11 months between introducing the M1 and the faster M1 Pro and M1 Max chips.
With M2 landing in June 2022, it seems extremely early in the chip cycle to bring out the Pro and Max versions that would go into updated MacBook Pro models.
All of this firmly puts forward the idea of Apple truly taking a rest from product launches for 2022. This pushes new Macs into early 2023.
Apple can't lie in earnings reports, lest they fall afoul of the Securities and Exchange Commission, or an assortment of other regulatory bodies internationally. There's enough wiggle-room in Cook's statement, that if you squint and look at it just so, Apple rolling out a new MacBook Pro or Mac mini in the same form factor before the end of the year could be construed as an enhancement or other similar legal dodge to avoid SEC ire.
But, it would be new phrasing for Apple. And, Cook and Maestri have been at this long enough to make sure that they don't say anything that requires a regulatory dance to work around after-the fact.
A better way to avoid that ire is to not have said anything at all about the product lineup during the heavily scripted earnings announcement, going into the holiday season.
But they did. And it wasn't because they were caught off-guard.
Read on AppleInsider
Comments
The actual big issue is no new Mac Pro, and the Intel Mac mini. We were promised the transition would be complete by the end of 2022.
The first round of Apple Silicon Macs, M1 MacBook Air, M1 MacBook Pro 13” with TouchBar, and M1 Mac mini, were all transitional products. They reused a lot of design elements from their Intel versions. The second round of Macs including the 24” iMac, 14”/16” M1 variant MacBook Pros, and Mac Studio were all designed from the ground-up around Apple Silicon. The new MacBooks and the Studios also took a more pragmatic look at the port load-out. The second round of Apple Silicon products started moving Apple Silicon from the transitioning stage to the entrenchment stage. It’s still not fully entrenched, and it’s not a hard and fast formula, but the transitioning phase for most mainstream Macs is now in the rear view mirror. On to the entrenchment phase.
The first and second rounds of Apple Silicon Macs obviously didn’t go as wide as Apple originally hoped for, but in retrospect I think it is all for very good reasons. There is simply no good business case for doing a transitional version of the Mac Pro. The Mac Pro has to not only go-deep within its own little market sector, it also has to go-big in terms of putting the benefits of Apple Silicon out to Apple’s most discerning customers who accept nothing less than a spectacular product. Apple also returned to the MacBook Air and pulled it forward into the entrenched group of products with a new chassis design and M2.
Of course there are always some outliers. The M2 13” MacBook Pro with TouchBar … well it’s just an oddity that probably has nothing at all to do with strategic goals of the Apple Silicon master plan and everything to do with meeting tactical objectives, like making numbers and keeping product in the pipeline with supply chains for new components being somewhat wounded. You can also question why the Mac mini didn’t get the same kind of transitional-to-entrenchment makeover that the MacBook Air did. I think it did get a makeover, but it got queued up in the production pipeline behind the new Air and even the high end iPad Pros because Apple has to triage parts availability and production capacity based on what’s driving their sales and profits, which the Mac mini is definitely not doing.
The fate of the 27” iMac is anyone’s guess. At this point it’s a safe bet that we will never see a transitional version of the 27” iMac, i.e., where Apple shoves Apple Silicon magic into the same chassis the last Intel version 27” iMacs used. Personally, I think Apple will go in a totally new direction if they do a larger than 24” format all-in-one. They may not even call it an iMac and keep the current 24” iMac as the only iMac. I also think it may be a massive touch based device somewhat akin to Microsoft’s Surface Studio. Imagine a very large touch based all-in-one Mac with significant Apple Silicon based performance that can be used by itself but also be paired with a Mac Studio or Apple Silicon Mac Pro for extremely intensive 3D design, simulation, modeling, and tasks requiring unparalleled graphical performance capability. Of course this sounds like an exceedingly niche product, but as long as the Mac Studio and 27” Studio Display are still around, the music has stopped playing and all of the available chairs are already taken. The 27” iMac is the odd man out.
So why not M3? TSMC starts 3nm manufacturing in December. The iPhone 15 Pro isn't going to ship for 11 months. Could Apple put those 3nm units into MacBook Pro from March? There is some discussion that Apple likelywon't use the TSMC 3nm as the improvements are less than expected and it has been delayed.
Apple will then go for the TSMC N3E version expected to be delivered next summer, which leaves MBP in a limbo. There is no major new CPU for at least 15 months due to TSMC delays and iPhone Pro taking priority. As a result we probably will see MBP M2 or M1+. The real improvement will be M3 and that will be the one to buy.
AAPL is famous for security and secretive development; particularly when it leaks or fails. Maybe we're a tad further out from that happening, but I don't see AAPL just waiting out supply chain issues. They are working on *something* new.
I don't put much stock in the "Apple Car" rumors, but I can see them making components for other manufacturers. I think re-entering the wifi networking biz as possible, but maybe that is wishful thinking on my part. Does AAPL want to operate their own wireless communications network, and become a cell provider? Not sure that is hugely attractive. AAPL buy Starlink? Ouch.
Just exacly what would AAPL be good at hardware wise? Was the Apple Watch not only the next chapter in AAPL's story; or was it the last? I have a hard time believing the latter.
https://ludwig.guru/s/shedding+doubt <--
https://ludwig.guru/s/cast+light <--
Since the original article seems to have been changed, I guess they were using the word wrongly, and you have made your comment rightly.
Of course a 6K screen is a much better fit for a 32” screen but there’s no way that Apple is going to put an XDR display in the thing and hit a price target that would attract iMac buyers other than those who were buying iMac Pro.
Apple can launch a new cycle when it likes, but once it’s underway, it’s always this year-long progression from the base Mx to the Extreme.
M3 October 2023
M3 Pro/Max June 2024
M4 June 2025
M4 Pro/Max March 2026
M4 Ultra/Extreme June 2026
This lines up neatly with the rumors early on that Apple Silicon would be on an 18-month cycle.