The obvious solution is to fix the oversight so Taiwan has a fair tax situation.
The most obvious is to recognise Taiwan as an independent, democratic nation. That would help with the tax issue too.
it is embarrassing how badly the west has treated Taiwan, all not to offend China.
This is not true. Taiwan has been treated very well by US. Taiwan has access to US technology, trade for decades. The only other nation that was treated better is South Korea.
Geez, what a bunch of whiners. They knew what things looked like going in. Maybe they thought if they stamped their foot and cried enough that the government would fold like the State of Wisconsin did. Dudes, you sighed a contract, hold up your end or pay the penalty. You don’t want to be double taxed? Talk to the government of Taiwan.
As far as their bi*ching about how Americans don’t work hard enough. We may not work as hard as you’d like but you see your employees as replaceable, disposable pieces that can be used up and thrown away. In the west we put a higher value on the welfare of our fellow citizens. Once again you knew this going in, so shut up or GTFO.
Oh please there’s no real upside to manufacturing in the US besides currying political favor with you yokels. The cons otoh are legion and include but not limited to drive by racist attacks on TSMC executives.
End of the day Americans will buy their chips regardless of where they are manufactured because you need them, and it’s far cheaper to ship the product then deal with you over entitled snowflakes (and that’s Americans in general not just the left)
That is exactly what happened. TSMC is not at fault here. I work with Taiwanese people and they are trust worthy and will abide by any deal they sign. They are not the issue here, sleepy joe is
Darth Biden says he has altered the deal. Pray he doesn’t alter it any further.
The obvious solution is to fix the oversight so Taiwan has a fair tax situation.
The most obvious is to recognise Taiwan as an independent, democratic nation. That would help with the tax issue too.
it is embarrassing how badly the west has treated Taiwan, all not to offend China.
And we did that at a time when we had all the leverage against China on our side, we cast away Taiwan like a cheap suit. Just to recognize China.
This is not true story. US recognized China to alienate Russia. It worked. And before US established diplomatic relation with China, US had diplomatic relation with Taiwan as Republic of China. So US recognizes Taiwan as a part of China. This stance US has never changed. Although there are some minor voices trying to overturn it.
Geez, what a bunch of whiners. They knew what things looked like going in. Maybe they thought if they stamped their foot and cried enough that the government would fold like the State of Wisconsin did. Dudes, you sighed a contract, hold up your end or pay the penalty. You don’t want to be double taxed? Talk to the government of Taiwan.
As far as their bi*ching about how Americans don’t work hard enough. We may not work as hard as you’d like but you see your employees as replaceable, disposable pieces that can be used up and thrown away. In the west we put a higher value on the welfare of our fellow citizens. Once again you knew this going in, so shut up or GTFO.
You have no idea what you are talking about. TSMC is one of the best run companies in the world. It is the top dog in the foundry business by a mile. It really doesn't need to build fabs in the US. In fact the poor work culture and regulatory red tap here in the US are major disincentives for building new foundry fabs in the US. TSMC only relented and embarked on this multibillion dollar project because it wants to improve US/Taiwan relation. The US government and Apple both would like to see TSMC diversify manufacturing and have been putting a lot of pressure on TSMC. Whether TSMC's incredible management and R&D skills can overcome all the pitfalls and successfully bringing cutting edge foundry manufacturing to the US or not.. that remains to be seen. But we should all root for TSMC. As the article clearly points out, base on current rules TSMC will be double taxed. It is not whining when the rules are clearly unfair. If US government is wanting to court TSMC to come to the US, it must provide a level playing field. You allude to the bogus project that FoxConn had planned in Wisconsin. Well... if you know Terry Gou and his history you'll know that deal was dead on arrival. Kenosha residents didn't even want the project. It was pretty much a publicity stunt arranged by Terry Gou and former republican governor Scott Walker and con artist Donald Trump to get votes.
Geez, what a bunch of whiners. They knew what things looked like going in. Maybe they thought if they stamped their foot and cried enough that the government would fold like the State of Wisconsin did. Dudes, you sighed a contract, hold up your end or pay the penalty. You don’t want to be double taxed? Talk to the government of Taiwan.
As far as their bi*ching about how Americans don’t work hard enough. We may not work as hard as you’d like but you see your employees as replaceable, disposable pieces that can be used up and thrown away. In the west we put a higher value on the welfare of our fellow citizens. Once again you knew this going in, so shut up or GTFO.
Taiwan is not recognized as a country because of Chinese pressure, the same Chinese pressure that has Taiwan under imminent threat of invasion. But by all means go off on some cultural supremacist rant if you feel the need to share your complete lack of empathy for the people of Taiwan.
I have a huge amount of empathy for the people of Taiwan. They are in a very bad position with few options. Xi is only making things harder for them so I care deeply about the PEOPLE of Taiwan. I however have no sympathy for the whining jerks that run TSMC. They have tried to pull this s*** everywhere they have built plants. Sign a contract, then complain about the terms in order to get concessions after the fact. They may make great chips, but the management is horrible.
What part of Biden changing the terms of the contract they signed do you not understand? Are you dense? Seriously? How many times do I have to say it? Same thing is going on with Foxconn in Wisconsin. Evers and Biden changed the terms on Foxconn .
avon b7 said: Just yesterday, there were reports claiming that TSMC had massively cut orders for EUV machines from ASML. There is a possibility that could imply less new plants (as opposed to expansion of existing plants or hardware renewal).
While true (and those orders are likely delayed vs canceled) it is also about China, and other authoritarian governments, being restricted from purchase of advanced semiconductors manufactured in the West. That there is an ongoing slowdown in the global economy is exacerbating the slowdown in semiconductors.
In addition, the US government has instructed Nvidia and AMD not to supply their high-end graphics processing units to China, a move which also hurt demand, the report said.
Of note, the West will continue bans on DUV and EUV machines, other various semiconductor manufacturing technologies, operating consumables, and software, and semiconductors themselves, with a goal to restrict China's access to advanced technology that are dual use, civilian and military.
hopefully that recognition bodes well for keeping high end semiconductors out of China.
Regarding TSMC — it’s fine either way. If TSMC doesn’t want to take US money then the money will likely go to Intel. I’d love for Intel to get back in the race and be a viable alternative for apple’s business
avon b7 said: Just yesterday, there were reports claiming that TSMC had massively cut orders for EUV machines from ASML. There is a possibility that could imply less new plants (as opposed to expansion of existing plants or hardware renewal).
While true (and those orders are likely delayed vs canceled) it is also about China, and other authoritarian governments, being restricted from purchase of advanced semiconductors manufactured in the West. That there is an ongoing slowdown in the global economy is exacerbating the slowdown in semiconductors.
In addition, the US government has instructed Nvidia and AMD not to supply their high-end graphics processing units to China, a move which also hurt demand, the report said.
Of note, the West will continue bans on DUV and EUV machines, other various semiconductor manufacturing technologies, operating consumables, and software, and semiconductors themselves, with a goal to restrict China's access to advanced technology that are dual use, civilian and military.
That is prudent policy by the West.
I think you may be putting all your eggs in one basket there. China isn't involved.
There are two separate potential issues here and we can't really know what the true situation is until either ASML or TSMC make an official comment.
The slowdown is real. Cutting edge semiconductor products are not seeing high demand. This has been confirmed.
However, 'high' demand was never ever really 'high' when taken in the context of general semiconductor terms. The EUV market represents end products that make up just 2% of the world's output. The other 98% is not EUV. Or that is what it was like until recently.
Chinese demand had already been factored out for this year (and last). ASML reportedly aimed to ship 60 EUV solutions worldwide this year. None ever planned for China during 2023. A 40% drop in EUV orders would therefore be a big factor for that tiny (but high profit side of business). In contrast, ASML planned to ship almost 400 DUV machines.
Yesterday the EU also announced its own Chips Act and also wants semi-conductor self sufficiency.
What is clear is that you can't move from a 'localised' fabrication setup to a globalised setup without incurring severe disruption.
Understandably, TSMC will be very reluctant to let that situation go without so much as a whimper (both for political and economic reasons).
A lack of demand just makes the situation worse so if governments want local fabs that are likely to be underperformant from an economic perspective they are going to have to susidise things and make the carrot very tempting.
The US Act was criticised from day one as not being clear enough on the financial terms nor long enough on time terms. It also had some very significant strings attached with regards to China.
TSMC, ASML and Samsung all had issues with that side of things. Samsung got a one year 'pass' and ASML stated outright that the plan would fail, the approach was wrong and it would impact its business.
The question remains the same, though. The breakdown of those lost orders. What part was destined for capacity expansion/renewal of equipment at existing fabs or was inked for new fabs on foreign soil?
avon b7 said: Just yesterday, there were reports claiming that TSMC had massively cut orders for EUV machines from ASML. There is a possibility that could imply less new plants (as opposed to expansion of existing plants or hardware renewal).
While true (and those orders are likely delayed vs canceled) it is also about China, and other authoritarian governments, being restricted from purchase of advanced semiconductors manufactured in the West. That there is an ongoing slowdown in the global economy is exacerbating the slowdown in semiconductors.
In addition, the US government has instructed Nvidia and AMD not to supply their high-end graphics processing units to China, a move which also hurt demand, the report said.
Of note, the West will continue bans on DUV and EUV machines, other various semiconductor manufacturing technologies, operating consumables, and software, and semiconductors themselves, with a goal to restrict China's access to advanced technology that are dual use, civilian and military.
That is prudent policy by the West.
I think you may be putting all your eggs in one basket there. China isn't involved.
There are two separate potential issues here and we can't really know what the true situation is until either ASML or TSMC make an official comment.
The slowdown is real. Cutting edge semiconductor products are not seeing high demand. This has been confirmed.
However, 'high' demand was never ever really 'high' when taken in the context of general semiconductor terms. The EUV market represents end products that make up just 2% of the world's output. The other 98% is not EUV. Or that is what it was like until recently.
Chinese demand had already been factored out for this year (and last). ASML reportedly aimed to ship 60 EUV solutions worldwide this year. None ever planned for China during 2023. A 40% drop in EUV orders would therefore be a big factor for that tiny (but high profit side of business). In contrast, ASML planned to ship almost 400 DUV machines.
Yesterday the EU also announced its own Chips Act and also wants semi-conductor self sufficiency.
What is clear is that you can't move from a 'localised' fabrication setup to a globalised setup without incurring severe disruption.
Understandably, TSMC will be very reluctant to let that situation go without so much as a whimper (both for political and economic reasons).
A lack of demand just makes the situation worse so if governments want local fabs that are likely to be underperformant from an economic perspective they are going to have to susidise things and make the carrot very tempting.
The US Act was criticised from day one as not being clear enough on the financial terms nor long enough on time terms. It also had some very significant strings attached with regards to China.
TSMC, ASML and Samsung all had issues with that side of things. Samsung got a one year 'pass' and ASML stated outright that the plan would fail, the approach was wrong and it would impact its business.
The question remains the same, though. The breakdown of those lost orders. What part was destined for capacity expansion/renewal of equipment at existing fabs or was inked for new fabs on foreign soil?
China isn't getting the semiconductor output of any of these advanced fabs, so yeah, there is an effect on the market, at least in the short term. On the other hand, China won't be competitive in advanced semiconductors without huge expenditures and many, many, years of development. That result benefits the West.
Obviously, Chinas doesn't get any more DUV from Nikon or ASML, and no EUV from ASML, and doesn't get any of the semiconductors that come off of those fabs using DUV and EUV, which as I noted, effects NVIDIA and AMD primarily as they are limited in the types of GPU's and AI systems that they can sell into China. China is on its own with very little, and that expensive, at 7nm. Ultimately, ASML will not be selling into China anything advanced, so that market is now limited to the West and Western aligned democracies. There is also an accelerating trend to limiting technology transfer to China.
Taiwan ultimately won't be double taxed, and given that the fab in Arizona will be fully operational soon, it isn't like Taiwan wasn't aware that a 5nm fab was going to be cutting edge in the U.S. for long, but rather a hedge by the U.S. Defense Industry against a threat from China towards Taiwan.
If anything, the effect will be felt most in the EU, who had hopes of gaining fabs, that are now on likely on hold until the global economy shows signs of growth.
As for the strings attached to China, that isn't going to change, and frankly, even the EU has woken up to the threat of China's authoritarianism, well, excepting maybe Macron's France.
avon b7 said: Just yesterday, there were reports claiming that TSMC had massively cut orders for EUV machines from ASML. There is a possibility that could imply less new plants (as opposed to expansion of existing plants or hardware renewal).
While true (and those orders are likely delayed vs canceled) it is also about China, and other authoritarian governments, being restricted from purchase of advanced semiconductors manufactured in the West. That there is an ongoing slowdown in the global economy is exacerbating the slowdown in semiconductors.
In addition, the US government has instructed Nvidia and AMD not to supply their high-end graphics processing units to China, a move which also hurt demand, the report said.
Of note, the West will continue bans on DUV and EUV machines, other various semiconductor manufacturing technologies, operating consumables, and software, and semiconductors themselves, with a goal to restrict China's access to advanced technology that are dual use, civilian and military.
That is prudent policy by the West.
I think you may be putting all your eggs in one basket there. China isn't involved.
There are two separate potential issues here and we can't really know what the true situation is until either ASML or TSMC make an official comment.
The slowdown is real. Cutting edge semiconductor products are not seeing high demand. This has been confirmed.
However, 'high' demand was never ever really 'high' when taken in the context of general semiconductor terms. The EUV market represents end products that make up just 2% of the world's output. The other 98% is not EUV. Or that is what it was like until recently.
Chinese demand had already been factored out for this year (and last). ASML reportedly aimed to ship 60 EUV solutions worldwide this year. None ever planned for China during 2023. A 40% drop in EUV orders would therefore be a big factor for that tiny (but high profit side of business). In contrast, ASML planned to ship almost 400 DUV machines.
Yesterday the EU also announced its own Chips Act and also wants semi-conductor self sufficiency.
What is clear is that you can't move from a 'localised' fabrication setup to a globalised setup without incurring severe disruption.
Understandably, TSMC will be very reluctant to let that situation go without so much as a whimper (both for political and economic reasons).
A lack of demand just makes the situation worse so if governments want local fabs that are likely to be underperformant from an economic perspective they are going to have to susidise things and make the carrot very tempting.
The US Act was criticised from day one as not being clear enough on the financial terms nor long enough on time terms. It also had some very significant strings attached with regards to China.
TSMC, ASML and Samsung all had issues with that side of things. Samsung got a one year 'pass' and ASML stated outright that the plan would fail, the approach was wrong and it would impact its business.
The question remains the same, though. The breakdown of those lost orders. What part was destined for capacity expansion/renewal of equipment at existing fabs or was inked for new fabs on foreign soil?
China isn't getting the semiconductor output of any of these advanced fabs, so yeah, there is an effect on the market, at least in the short term. On the other hand, China won't be competitive in advanced semiconductors without huge expenditures and many, many, years of development. That result benefits the West.
Obviously, Chinas doesn't get any more DUV from Nikon or ASML, and no EUV from ASML, and doesn't get any of the semiconductors that come off of those fabs using DUV and EUV, which as I noted, effects NVIDIA and AMD primarily as they are limited in the types of GPU's and AI systems that they can sell into China. China is on its own with very little, and that expensive, at 7nm. Ultimately, ASML will not be selling into China anything advanced, so that market is now limited to the West and Western aligned democracies. There is also an accelerating trend to limiting technology transfer to China.
Taiwan ultimately won't be double taxed, and given that the fab in Arizona will be fully operational soon, it isn't like Taiwan wasn't aware that a 5nm fab was going to be cutting edge in the U.S. for long, but rather a hedge by the U.S. Defense Industry against a threat from China towards Taiwan.
If anything, the effect will be felt most in the EU, who had hopes of gaining fabs, that are now on likely on hold until the global economy shows signs of growth.
As for the strings attached to China, that isn't going to change, and frankly, even the EU has woken up to the threat of China's authoritarianism, well, excepting maybe Macron's France.
China is irrelevant with regards to this article and the reported 40% cut in EUV orders to ASML. Any short term semiconductor impact regarding China is not relevant in the slightest in this case. That would be a wider, unrelated impact.
China has been out of that equation for a couple of years already. The rumored 40% cut came from existing orders, of which, none were from China.
This is about new fabs, EUV and process nodes at 5nm and below.
The EU is fine with it's plans for semiconductor self sufficiency. The first phase has already been announced and partners are onboard. From a government perspective, it all boils down to the amount of subsidies and the strings attached.
Huawei is still evaluating a fab for 5G in Germany BTW.
avon b7 said: Just yesterday, there were reports claiming that TSMC had massively cut orders for EUV machines from ASML. There is a possibility that could imply less new plants (as opposed to expansion of existing plants or hardware renewal).
While true (and those orders are likely delayed vs canceled) it is also about China, and other authoritarian governments, being restricted from purchase of advanced semiconductors manufactured in the West. That there is an ongoing slowdown in the global economy is exacerbating the slowdown in semiconductors.
In addition, the US government has instructed Nvidia and AMD not to supply their high-end graphics processing units to China, a move which also hurt demand, the report said.
Of note, the West will continue bans on DUV and EUV machines, other various semiconductor manufacturing technologies, operating consumables, and software, and semiconductors themselves, with a goal to restrict China's access to advanced technology that are dual use, civilian and military.
That is prudent policy by the West.
I think you may be putting all your eggs in one basket there. China isn't involved.
There are two separate potential issues here and we can't really know what the true situation is until either ASML or TSMC make an official comment.
The slowdown is real. Cutting edge semiconductor products are not seeing high demand. This has been confirmed.
However, 'high' demand was never ever really 'high' when taken in the context of general semiconductor terms. The EUV market represents end products that make up just 2% of the world's output. The other 98% is not EUV. Or that is what it was like until recently.
Chinese demand had already been factored out for this year (and last). ASML reportedly aimed to ship 60 EUV solutions worldwide this year. None ever planned for China during 2023. A 40% drop in EUV orders would therefore be a big factor for that tiny (but high profit side of business). In contrast, ASML planned to ship almost 400 DUV machines.
Yesterday the EU also announced its own Chips Act and also wants semi-conductor self sufficiency.
What is clear is that you can't move from a 'localised' fabrication setup to a globalised setup without incurring severe disruption.
Understandably, TSMC will be very reluctant to let that situation go without so much as a whimper (both for political and economic reasons).
A lack of demand just makes the situation worse so if governments want local fabs that are likely to be underperformant from an economic perspective they are going to have to susidise things and make the carrot very tempting.
The US Act was criticised from day one as not being clear enough on the financial terms nor long enough on time terms. It also had some very significant strings attached with regards to China.
TSMC, ASML and Samsung all had issues with that side of things. Samsung got a one year 'pass' and ASML stated outright that the plan would fail, the approach was wrong and it would impact its business.
The question remains the same, though. The breakdown of those lost orders. What part was destined for capacity expansion/renewal of equipment at existing fabs or was inked for new fabs on foreign soil?
China isn't getting the semiconductor output of any of these advanced fabs, so yeah, there is an effect on the market, at least in the short term. On the other hand, China won't be competitive in advanced semiconductors without huge expenditures and many, many, years of development. That result benefits the West.
Obviously, Chinas doesn't get any more DUV from Nikon or ASML, and no EUV from ASML, and doesn't get any of the semiconductors that come off of those fabs using DUV and EUV, which as I noted, effects NVIDIA and AMD primarily as they are limited in the types of GPU's and AI systems that they can sell into China. China is on its own with very little, and that expensive, at 7nm. Ultimately, ASML will not be selling into China anything advanced, so that market is now limited to the West and Western aligned democracies. There is also an accelerating trend to limiting technology transfer to China.
Taiwan ultimately won't be double taxed, and given that the fab in Arizona will be fully operational soon, it isn't like Taiwan wasn't aware that a 5nm fab was going to be cutting edge in the U.S. for long, but rather a hedge by the U.S. Defense Industry against a threat from China towards Taiwan.
If anything, the effect will be felt most in the EU, who had hopes of gaining fabs, that are now on likely on hold until the global economy shows signs of growth.
As for the strings attached to China, that isn't going to change, and frankly, even the EU has woken up to the threat of China's authoritarianism, well, excepting maybe Macron's France.
China is irrelevant with regards to this article and the reported 40% cut in EUV orders to ASML. Any short term semiconductor impact regarding China is not relevant in the slightest in this case. That would be a wider, unrelated impact.
China has been out of that equation for a couple of years already. The rumored 40% cut came from existing orders, of which, none were from China.
This is about new fabs, EUV and process nodes at 5nm and below.
The EU is fine with it's plans for semiconductor self sufficiency. The first phase has already been announced and partners are onboard. From a government perspective, it all boils down to the amount of subsidies and the strings attached.
Huawei is still evaluating a fab for 5G in Germany BTW.
BERLIN, March 8 (Reuters) - Germany is considering banning certain components from Chinese companies Huawei and ZTE in its telecoms networks, a government source said, in a potentially significant move to address security concerns.
Reporting by Sarah Marsh, Andreas Rinke, Friederike Heine and Hakan Ersen; Additional reporting by Supantha Mukherjee and Liz Lee; Editing by Alexander Smith and Stephen Coates
Germany has been very slow in addressing Huawei telecom equipment in their networks, but slowly beginning to deal with it.
Without mentioning any names or group of people behind this. The Taiwanese were stupid to fall for this trap. The whole goal is to steal technology from Taiwan and bring it over to US so they can have full control of whom it gets sold to and full record of whom buys and at what price along with whom can buy and can’t buy. Local laws and policies will milk their profits dry lol.. Can’t believe how stupid they were to transfer their tech over to the US. I wonder how they threatened and blackmailed them behind the scenes and closed doors. One day this news will get out on how they forced them to transfer technology and factories to US. This is technology theft of TSMC from Taiwan to US. Without getting into conspiracy theories just look at all the names behind this and connect the dots from there. Create problems between Taiwan and China in order to scare them and get them to transfer technology over to US. The old divide and conquer policy lol.. The dummies fell for it but are now realizing their mistakes.. Customers will require permits and permits will cost money lol.. They will milk their you know what dry between fees,permits,taxes,fines,insurance and the whole system setup to milk them dry. Boy were they dumb to fall for this one.
avon b7 said: Just yesterday, there were reports claiming that TSMC had massively cut orders for EUV machines from ASML. There is a possibility that could imply less new plants (as opposed to expansion of existing plants or hardware renewal).
While true (and those orders are likely delayed vs canceled) it is also about China, and other authoritarian governments, being restricted from purchase of advanced semiconductors manufactured in the West. That there is an ongoing slowdown in the global economy is exacerbating the slowdown in semiconductors.
In addition, the US government has instructed Nvidia and AMD not to supply their high-end graphics processing units to China, a move which also hurt demand, the report said.
Of note, the West will continue bans on DUV and EUV machines, other various semiconductor manufacturing technologies, operating consumables, and software, and semiconductors themselves, with a goal to restrict China's access to advanced technology that are dual use, civilian and military.
That is prudent policy by the West.
I think you may be putting all your eggs in one basket there. China isn't involved.
There are two separate potential issues here and we can't really know what the true situation is until either ASML or TSMC make an official comment.
The slowdown is real. Cutting edge semiconductor products are not seeing high demand. This has been confirmed.
However, 'high' demand was never ever really 'high' when taken in the context of general semiconductor terms. The EUV market represents end products that make up just 2% of the world's output. The other 98% is not EUV. Or that is what it was like until recently.
Chinese demand had already been factored out for this year (and last). ASML reportedly aimed to ship 60 EUV solutions worldwide this year. None ever planned for China during 2023. A 40% drop in EUV orders would therefore be a big factor for that tiny (but high profit side of business). In contrast, ASML planned to ship almost 400 DUV machines.
Yesterday the EU also announced its own Chips Act and also wants semi-conductor self sufficiency.
What is clear is that you can't move from a 'localised' fabrication setup to a globalised setup without incurring severe disruption.
Understandably, TSMC will be very reluctant to let that situation go without so much as a whimper (both for political and economic reasons).
A lack of demand just makes the situation worse so if governments want local fabs that are likely to be underperformant from an economic perspective they are going to have to susidise things and make the carrot very tempting.
The US Act was criticised from day one as not being clear enough on the financial terms nor long enough on time terms. It also had some very significant strings attached with regards to China.
TSMC, ASML and Samsung all had issues with that side of things. Samsung got a one year 'pass' and ASML stated outright that the plan would fail, the approach was wrong and it would impact its business.
The question remains the same, though. The breakdown of those lost orders. What part was destined for capacity expansion/renewal of equipment at existing fabs or was inked for new fabs on foreign soil?
China isn't getting the semiconductor output of any of these advanced fabs, so yeah, there is an effect on the market, at least in the short term. On the other hand, China won't be competitive in advanced semiconductors without huge expenditures and many, many, years of development. That result benefits the West.
Obviously, Chinas doesn't get any more DUV from Nikon or ASML, and no EUV from ASML, and doesn't get any of the semiconductors that come off of those fabs using DUV and EUV, which as I noted, effects NVIDIA and AMD primarily as they are limited in the types of GPU's and AI systems that they can sell into China. China is on its own with very little, and that expensive, at 7nm. Ultimately, ASML will not be selling into China anything advanced, so that market is now limited to the West and Western aligned democracies. There is also an accelerating trend to limiting technology transfer to China.
Taiwan ultimately won't be double taxed, and given that the fab in Arizona will be fully operational soon, it isn't like Taiwan wasn't aware that a 5nm fab was going to be cutting edge in the U.S. for long, but rather a hedge by the U.S. Defense Industry against a threat from China towards Taiwan.
If anything, the effect will be felt most in the EU, who had hopes of gaining fabs, that are now on likely on hold until the global economy shows signs of growth.
As for the strings attached to China, that isn't going to change, and frankly, even the EU has woken up to the threat of China's authoritarianism, well, excepting maybe Macron's France.
China is irrelevant with regards to this article and the reported 40% cut in EUV orders to ASML. Any short term semiconductor impact regarding China is not relevant in the slightest in this case. That would be a wider, unrelated impact.
China has been out of that equation for a couple of years already. The rumored 40% cut came from existing orders, of which, none were from China.
This is about new fabs, EUV and process nodes at 5nm and below.
The EU is fine with it's plans for semiconductor self sufficiency. The first phase has already been announced and partners are onboard. From a government perspective, it all boils down to the amount of subsidies and the strings attached.
Huawei is still evaluating a fab for 5G in Germany BTW.
BERLIN, March 8 (Reuters) - Germany is considering banning certain components from Chinese companies Huawei and ZTE in its telecoms networks, a government source said, in a potentially significant move to address security concerns.
Reporting by Sarah Marsh, Andreas Rinke, Friederike Heine and Hakan Ersen; Additional reporting by Supantha Mukherjee and Liz Lee; Editing by Alexander Smith and Stephen Coates
Germany has been very slow in addressing Huawei telecom equipment in their networks, but slowly beginning to deal with it.
You won't find many links due to the sensitivity surrounding the geopolitical situation and those to articles that did exist may have been scrubbed. You'll have to take my word for it but I have seen them.
That's a reasonable assumption given that at MWC, chipsets were on display but all the information relative to manufacturers was taped over.
Currently we know that a new fab is being built in Shenzhen and although outlets like Bloomberg claim it is 'secretive', it isn't. It just isn't finished yet. We do know a fair bit about it though.
In parallel, they have de-Americanised over 13,000 components and have completed work on an EDA platform, de-Americanising 78 software tools in the process.
Just two days ago there was a ceremony to celebrate their move to a homegrown ERP solution. The big loser in that case was Oracle. That transition has been described as a colossal move. Now the big question in this case isn't on de-Americanisation per se but if they will move into the ERP market and compete directly with Oracle and SAP and provide not only the software but also the hardware (local, edge, cloud, AI...) plus the private ICT infrastructure. Quite literally the whole widget. That, in China alone would have a massive impact on both SAP and Oracle.
Then there is the question of subsidies. The Chinese CHIPS Act equivalent is said to offer more than the US and EU efforts combined.
The Huawei fab in Germany is irrelevant here though. What is relevant is that China has no impact on the current situation with reduced EUV demand or TSMC fab plans.
avon b7 said: Just yesterday, there were reports claiming that TSMC had massively cut orders for EUV machines from ASML. There is a possibility that could imply less new plants (as opposed to expansion of existing plants or hardware renewal).
While true (and those orders are likely delayed vs canceled) it is also about China, and other authoritarian governments, being restricted from purchase of advanced semiconductors manufactured in the West. That there is an ongoing slowdown in the global economy is exacerbating the slowdown in semiconductors.
In addition, the US government has instructed Nvidia and AMD not to supply their high-end graphics processing units to China, a move which also hurt demand, the report said.
Of note, the West will continue bans on DUV and EUV machines, other various semiconductor manufacturing technologies, operating consumables, and software, and semiconductors themselves, with a goal to restrict China's access to advanced technology that are dual use, civilian and military.
That is prudent policy by the West.
I think you may be putting all your eggs in one basket there. China isn't involved.
There are two separate potential issues here and we can't really know what the true situation is until either ASML or TSMC make an official comment.
The slowdown is real. Cutting edge semiconductor products are not seeing high demand. This has been confirmed.
However, 'high' demand was never ever really 'high' when taken in the context of general semiconductor terms. The EUV market represents end products that make up just 2% of the world's output. The other 98% is not EUV. Or that is what it was like until recently.
Chinese demand had already been factored out for this year (and last). ASML reportedly aimed to ship 60 EUV solutions worldwide this year. None ever planned for China during 2023. A 40% drop in EUV orders would therefore be a big factor for that tiny (but high profit side of business). In contrast, ASML planned to ship almost 400 DUV machines.
Yesterday the EU also announced its own Chips Act and also wants semi-conductor self sufficiency.
What is clear is that you can't move from a 'localised' fabrication setup to a globalised setup without incurring severe disruption.
Understandably, TSMC will be very reluctant to let that situation go without so much as a whimper (both for political and economic reasons).
A lack of demand just makes the situation worse so if governments want local fabs that are likely to be underperformant from an economic perspective they are going to have to susidise things and make the carrot very tempting.
The US Act was criticised from day one as not being clear enough on the financial terms nor long enough on time terms. It also had some very significant strings attached with regards to China.
TSMC, ASML and Samsung all had issues with that side of things. Samsung got a one year 'pass' and ASML stated outright that the plan would fail, the approach was wrong and it would impact its business.
The question remains the same, though. The breakdown of those lost orders. What part was destined for capacity expansion/renewal of equipment at existing fabs or was inked for new fabs on foreign soil?
China isn't getting the semiconductor output of any of these advanced fabs, so yeah, there is an effect on the market, at least in the short term. On the other hand, China won't be competitive in advanced semiconductors without huge expenditures and many, many, years of development. That result benefits the West.
Obviously, Chinas doesn't get any more DUV from Nikon or ASML, and no EUV from ASML, and doesn't get any of the semiconductors that come off of those fabs using DUV and EUV, which as I noted, effects NVIDIA and AMD primarily as they are limited in the types of GPU's and AI systems that they can sell into China. China is on its own with very little, and that expensive, at 7nm. Ultimately, ASML will not be selling into China anything advanced, so that market is now limited to the West and Western aligned democracies. There is also an accelerating trend to limiting technology transfer to China.
Taiwan ultimately won't be double taxed, and given that the fab in Arizona will be fully operational soon, it isn't like Taiwan wasn't aware that a 5nm fab was going to be cutting edge in the U.S. for long, but rather a hedge by the U.S. Defense Industry against a threat from China towards Taiwan.
If anything, the effect will be felt most in the EU, who had hopes of gaining fabs, that are now on likely on hold until the global economy shows signs of growth.
As for the strings attached to China, that isn't going to change, and frankly, even the EU has woken up to the threat of China's authoritarianism, well, excepting maybe Macron's France.
China is irrelevant with regards to this article and the reported 40% cut in EUV orders to ASML. Any short term semiconductor impact regarding China is not relevant in the slightest in this case. That would be a wider, unrelated impact.
China has been out of that equation for a couple of years already. The rumored 40% cut came from existing orders, of which, none were from China.
This is about new fabs, EUV and process nodes at 5nm and below.
The EU is fine with it's plans for semiconductor self sufficiency. The first phase has already been announced and partners are onboard. From a government perspective, it all boils down to the amount of subsidies and the strings attached.
Huawei is still evaluating a fab for 5G in Germany BTW.
BERLIN, March 8 (Reuters) - Germany is considering banning certain components from Chinese companies Huawei and ZTE in its telecoms networks, a government source said, in a potentially significant move to address security concerns.
Reporting by Sarah Marsh, Andreas Rinke, Friederike Heine and Hakan Ersen; Additional reporting by Supantha Mukherjee and Liz Lee; Editing by Alexander Smith and Stephen Coates
Germany has been very slow in addressing Huawei telecom equipment in their networks, but slowly beginning to deal with it.
You won't find many links due to the sensitivity surrounding the geopolitical situation and those to articles that did exist may have been scrubbed. You'll have to take my word for it but I have seen them.
That's a reasonable assumption given that at MWC, chipsets were on display but all the information relative to manufacturers was taped over.
Currently we know that a new fab is being built in Shenzhen and although outlets like Bloomberg claim it is 'secretive', it isn't. It just isn't finished yet. We do know a fair bit about it though.
In parallel, they have de-Americanised over 13,000 components and have completed work on an EDA platform, de-Americanising 78 software tools in the process.
Just two days ago there was a ceremony to celebrate their move to a homegrown ERP solution. The big loser in that case was Oracle. That transition has been described as a colossal move. Now the big question in this case isn't on de-Americanisation per se but if they will move into the ERP market and compete directly with Oracle and SAP and provide not only the software but also the hardware (local, edge, cloud, AI...) plus the private ICT infrastructure. Quite literally the whole widget. That, in China alone would have a massive impact on both SAP and Oracle.
Then there is the question of subsidies. The Chinese CHIPS Act equivalent is said to offer more than the US and EU efforts combined.
The Huawei fab in Germany is irrelevant here though. What is relevant is that China has no impact on the current situation with reduced EUV demand or TSMC fab plans.
So, not really any Huawei fab happening in Germany, and no, I can't take your word for it happening, and politically it would be a nonstarter.
“We have to take a close look at company acquisitions when important infrastructure is involved or when there is a risk of technology flowing to acquirers from non-EU countries,” German economy minister Robert Habeck said at a press conference.
He added that the semiconductor industry in Europe, in particular, needed to guard its “technological and economic sovereignty.”
The planned deal had rattled German authorities concerned that Chinese investment in its critical infrastructure could compromise its intellectual property and leave it exposed to political pressure from Beijing.
avon b7 said: Just yesterday, there were reports claiming that TSMC had massively cut orders for EUV machines from ASML. There is a possibility that could imply less new plants (as opposed to expansion of existing plants or hardware renewal).
While true (and those orders are likely delayed vs canceled) it is also about China, and other authoritarian governments, being restricted from purchase of advanced semiconductors manufactured in the West. That there is an ongoing slowdown in the global economy is exacerbating the slowdown in semiconductors.
In addition, the US government has instructed Nvidia and AMD not to supply their high-end graphics processing units to China, a move which also hurt demand, the report said.
Of note, the West will continue bans on DUV and EUV machines, other various semiconductor manufacturing technologies, operating consumables, and software, and semiconductors themselves, with a goal to restrict China's access to advanced technology that are dual use, civilian and military.
That is prudent policy by the West.
I think you may be putting all your eggs in one basket there. China isn't involved.
There are two separate potential issues here and we can't really know what the true situation is until either ASML or TSMC make an official comment.
The slowdown is real. Cutting edge semiconductor products are not seeing high demand. This has been confirmed.
However, 'high' demand was never ever really 'high' when taken in the context of general semiconductor terms. The EUV market represents end products that make up just 2% of the world's output. The other 98% is not EUV. Or that is what it was like until recently.
Chinese demand had already been factored out for this year (and last). ASML reportedly aimed to ship 60 EUV solutions worldwide this year. None ever planned for China during 2023. A 40% drop in EUV orders would therefore be a big factor for that tiny (but high profit side of business). In contrast, ASML planned to ship almost 400 DUV machines.
Yesterday the EU also announced its own Chips Act and also wants semi-conductor self sufficiency.
What is clear is that you can't move from a 'localised' fabrication setup to a globalised setup without incurring severe disruption.
Understandably, TSMC will be very reluctant to let that situation go without so much as a whimper (both for political and economic reasons).
A lack of demand just makes the situation worse so if governments want local fabs that are likely to be underperformant from an economic perspective they are going to have to susidise things and make the carrot very tempting.
The US Act was criticised from day one as not being clear enough on the financial terms nor long enough on time terms. It also had some very significant strings attached with regards to China.
TSMC, ASML and Samsung all had issues with that side of things. Samsung got a one year 'pass' and ASML stated outright that the plan would fail, the approach was wrong and it would impact its business.
The question remains the same, though. The breakdown of those lost orders. What part was destined for capacity expansion/renewal of equipment at existing fabs or was inked for new fabs on foreign soil?
China isn't getting the semiconductor output of any of these advanced fabs, so yeah, there is an effect on the market, at least in the short term. On the other hand, China won't be competitive in advanced semiconductors without huge expenditures and many, many, years of development. That result benefits the West.
Obviously, Chinas doesn't get any more DUV from Nikon or ASML, and no EUV from ASML, and doesn't get any of the semiconductors that come off of those fabs using DUV and EUV, which as I noted, effects NVIDIA and AMD primarily as they are limited in the types of GPU's and AI systems that they can sell into China. China is on its own with very little, and that expensive, at 7nm. Ultimately, ASML will not be selling into China anything advanced, so that market is now limited to the West and Western aligned democracies. There is also an accelerating trend to limiting technology transfer to China.
Taiwan ultimately won't be double taxed, and given that the fab in Arizona will be fully operational soon, it isn't like Taiwan wasn't aware that a 5nm fab was going to be cutting edge in the U.S. for long, but rather a hedge by the U.S. Defense Industry against a threat from China towards Taiwan.
If anything, the effect will be felt most in the EU, who had hopes of gaining fabs, that are now on likely on hold until the global economy shows signs of growth.
As for the strings attached to China, that isn't going to change, and frankly, even the EU has woken up to the threat of China's authoritarianism, well, excepting maybe Macron's France.
China is irrelevant with regards to this article and the reported 40% cut in EUV orders to ASML. Any short term semiconductor impact regarding China is not relevant in the slightest in this case. That would be a wider, unrelated impact.
China has been out of that equation for a couple of years already. The rumored 40% cut came from existing orders, of which, none were from China.
This is about new fabs, EUV and process nodes at 5nm and below.
The EU is fine with it's plans for semiconductor self sufficiency. The first phase has already been announced and partners are onboard. From a government perspective, it all boils down to the amount of subsidies and the strings attached.
Huawei is still evaluating a fab for 5G in Germany BTW.
BERLIN, March 8 (Reuters) - Germany is considering banning certain components from Chinese companies Huawei and ZTE in its telecoms networks, a government source said, in a potentially significant move to address security concerns.
Reporting by Sarah Marsh, Andreas Rinke, Friederike Heine and Hakan Ersen; Additional reporting by Supantha Mukherjee and Liz Lee; Editing by Alexander Smith and Stephen Coates
Germany has been very slow in addressing Huawei telecom equipment in their networks, but slowly beginning to deal with it.
You won't find many links due to the sensitivity surrounding the geopolitical situation and those to articles that did exist may have been scrubbed. You'll have to take my word for it but I have seen them.
That's a reasonable assumption given that at MWC, chipsets were on display but all the information relative to manufacturers was taped over.
Currently we know that a new fab is being built in Shenzhen and although outlets like Bloomberg claim it is 'secretive', it isn't. It just isn't finished yet. We do know a fair bit about it though.
In parallel, they have de-Americanised over 13,000 components and have completed work on an EDA platform, de-Americanising 78 software tools in the process.
Just two days ago there was a ceremony to celebrate their move to a homegrown ERP solution. The big loser in that case was Oracle. That transition has been described as a colossal move. Now the big question in this case isn't on de-Americanisation per se but if they will move into the ERP market and compete directly with Oracle and SAP and provide not only the software but also the hardware (local, edge, cloud, AI...) plus the private ICT infrastructure. Quite literally the whole widget. That, in China alone would have a massive impact on both SAP and Oracle.
Then there is the question of subsidies. The Chinese CHIPS Act equivalent is said to offer more than the US and EU efforts combined.
The Huawei fab in Germany is irrelevant here though. What is relevant is that China has no impact on the current situation with reduced EUV demand or TSMC fab plans.
So, not really any Huawei fab happening in Germany, and no, I can't take your word for it happening, and politically it would be a nonstarter.
“We have to take a close look at company acquisitions when important infrastructure is involved or when there is a risk of technology flowing to acquirers from non-EU countries,” German economy minister Robert Habeck said at a press conference.
He added that the semiconductor industry in Europe, in particular, needed to guard its “technological and economic sovereignty.”
The planned deal had rattled German authorities concerned that Chinese investment in its critical infrastructure could compromise its intellectual property and leave it exposed to political pressure from Beijing.
LOL. You didn't understand your own link.
That is IP flowing out of the country!
A Huawei fab inside Germany would be IP from the company flowing into the country.
It would mean direct and indirect job creation (the original prevision was for 2,000 jobs).
China would have no issue with that.
It would also mean adherence and compliance to EU supply chain rules and inspection. It would go hand in hand with Huawei's Cyber Security and Privacy Protection Transparency Centers, one of which is, you guessed it, in Germany.
Anyway, the details are irrelevant for this thread.
avon b7 said: Just yesterday, there were reports claiming that TSMC had massively cut orders for EUV machines from ASML. There is a possibility that could imply less new plants (as opposed to expansion of existing plants or hardware renewal).
While true (and those orders are likely delayed vs canceled) it is also about China, and other authoritarian governments, being restricted from purchase of advanced semiconductors manufactured in the West. That there is an ongoing slowdown in the global economy is exacerbating the slowdown in semiconductors.
In addition, the US government has instructed Nvidia and AMD not to supply their high-end graphics processing units to China, a move which also hurt demand, the report said.
Of note, the West will continue bans on DUV and EUV machines, other various semiconductor manufacturing technologies, operating consumables, and software, and semiconductors themselves, with a goal to restrict China's access to advanced technology that are dual use, civilian and military.
That is prudent policy by the West.
I think you may be putting all your eggs in one basket there. China isn't involved.
There are two separate potential issues here and we can't really know what the true situation is until either ASML or TSMC make an official comment.
The slowdown is real. Cutting edge semiconductor products are not seeing high demand. This has been confirmed.
However, 'high' demand was never ever really 'high' when taken in the context of general semiconductor terms. The EUV market represents end products that make up just 2% of the world's output. The other 98% is not EUV. Or that is what it was like until recently.
Chinese demand had already been factored out for this year (and last). ASML reportedly aimed to ship 60 EUV solutions worldwide this year. None ever planned for China during 2023. A 40% drop in EUV orders would therefore be a big factor for that tiny (but high profit side of business). In contrast, ASML planned to ship almost 400 DUV machines.
Yesterday the EU also announced its own Chips Act and also wants semi-conductor self sufficiency.
What is clear is that you can't move from a 'localised' fabrication setup to a globalised setup without incurring severe disruption.
Understandably, TSMC will be very reluctant to let that situation go without so much as a whimper (both for political and economic reasons).
A lack of demand just makes the situation worse so if governments want local fabs that are likely to be underperformant from an economic perspective they are going to have to susidise things and make the carrot very tempting.
The US Act was criticised from day one as not being clear enough on the financial terms nor long enough on time terms. It also had some very significant strings attached with regards to China.
TSMC, ASML and Samsung all had issues with that side of things. Samsung got a one year 'pass' and ASML stated outright that the plan would fail, the approach was wrong and it would impact its business.
The question remains the same, though. The breakdown of those lost orders. What part was destined for capacity expansion/renewal of equipment at existing fabs or was inked for new fabs on foreign soil?
China isn't getting the semiconductor output of any of these advanced fabs, so yeah, there is an effect on the market, at least in the short term. On the other hand, China won't be competitive in advanced semiconductors without huge expenditures and many, many, years of development. That result benefits the West.
Obviously, Chinas doesn't get any more DUV from Nikon or ASML, and no EUV from ASML, and doesn't get any of the semiconductors that come off of those fabs using DUV and EUV, which as I noted, effects NVIDIA and AMD primarily as they are limited in the types of GPU's and AI systems that they can sell into China. China is on its own with very little, and that expensive, at 7nm. Ultimately, ASML will not be selling into China anything advanced, so that market is now limited to the West and Western aligned democracies. There is also an accelerating trend to limiting technology transfer to China.
Taiwan ultimately won't be double taxed, and given that the fab in Arizona will be fully operational soon, it isn't like Taiwan wasn't aware that a 5nm fab was going to be cutting edge in the U.S. for long, but rather a hedge by the U.S. Defense Industry against a threat from China towards Taiwan.
If anything, the effect will be felt most in the EU, who had hopes of gaining fabs, that are now on likely on hold until the global economy shows signs of growth.
As for the strings attached to China, that isn't going to change, and frankly, even the EU has woken up to the threat of China's authoritarianism, well, excepting maybe Macron's France.
China is irrelevant with regards to this article and the reported 40% cut in EUV orders to ASML. Any short term semiconductor impact regarding China is not relevant in the slightest in this case. That would be a wider, unrelated impact.
China has been out of that equation for a couple of years already. The rumored 40% cut came from existing orders, of which, none were from China.
This is about new fabs, EUV and process nodes at 5nm and below.
The EU is fine with it's plans for semiconductor self sufficiency. The first phase has already been announced and partners are onboard. From a government perspective, it all boils down to the amount of subsidies and the strings attached.
Huawei is still evaluating a fab for 5G in Germany BTW.
BERLIN, March 8 (Reuters) - Germany is considering banning certain components from Chinese companies Huawei and ZTE in its telecoms networks, a government source said, in a potentially significant move to address security concerns.
Reporting by Sarah Marsh, Andreas Rinke, Friederike Heine and Hakan Ersen; Additional reporting by Supantha Mukherjee and Liz Lee; Editing by Alexander Smith and Stephen Coates
Germany has been very slow in addressing Huawei telecom equipment in their networks, but slowly beginning to deal with it.
You won't find many links due to the sensitivity surrounding the geopolitical situation and those to articles that did exist may have been scrubbed. You'll have to take my word for it but I have seen them.
That's a reasonable assumption given that at MWC, chipsets were on display but all the information relative to manufacturers was taped over.
Currently we know that a new fab is being built in Shenzhen and although outlets like Bloomberg claim it is 'secretive', it isn't. It just isn't finished yet. We do know a fair bit about it though.
In parallel, they have de-Americanised over 13,000 components and have completed work on an EDA platform, de-Americanising 78 software tools in the process.
Just two days ago there was a ceremony to celebrate their move to a homegrown ERP solution. The big loser in that case was Oracle. That transition has been described as a colossal move. Now the big question in this case isn't on de-Americanisation per se but if they will move into the ERP market and compete directly with Oracle and SAP and provide not only the software but also the hardware (local, edge, cloud, AI...) plus the private ICT infrastructure. Quite literally the whole widget. That, in China alone would have a massive impact on both SAP and Oracle.
Then there is the question of subsidies. The Chinese CHIPS Act equivalent is said to offer more than the US and EU efforts combined.
The Huawei fab in Germany is irrelevant here though. What is relevant is that China has no impact on the current situation with reduced EUV demand or TSMC fab plans.
So, not really any Huawei fab happening in Germany, and no, I can't take your word for it happening, and politically it would be a nonstarter.
“We have to take a close look at company acquisitions when important infrastructure is involved or when there is a risk of technology flowing to acquirers from non-EU countries,” German economy minister Robert Habeck said at a press conference.
He added that the semiconductor industry in Europe, in particular, needed to guard its “technological and economic sovereignty.”
The planned deal had rattled German authorities concerned that Chinese investment in its critical infrastructure could compromise its intellectual property and leave it exposed to political pressure from Beijing.
LOL. You didn't understand your own link.
That is IP flowing out of the country!
A Huawei fab inside Germany would be IP from the company flowing into the country.
It would mean direct and indirect job creation (the original prevision was for 2,000 jobs).
China would have no issue with that.
It would also mean adherence and compliance to EU supply chain rules and inspection. It would go hand in hand with Huawei's Cyber Security and Privacy Protection Transparency Centers, one of which is, you guessed it, in Germany.
Anyway, the details are irrelevant for this thread.
LOL!
Okay...but, no link, and you yourself stated that it is "due to the sensitivity surrounding the geopolitical situation", which doesn't indicate a willingness to fab "dual use" components for Huawei, a state owned enterprise. Of course, the assumption is that Huawei would be the customer, right?
Comments
just because our venal governments pretend they don’t recognise that reality doesn’t mean I have to. Or anyone with honour.
hopefully that recognition bodes well for keeping high end semiconductors out of China.
Regarding TSMC — it’s fine either way. If TSMC doesn’t want to take US money then the money will likely go to Intel. I’d love for Intel to get back in the race and be a viable alternative for apple’s business
There are two separate potential issues here and we can't really know what the true situation is until either ASML or TSMC make an official comment.
The slowdown is real. Cutting edge semiconductor products are not seeing high demand. This has been confirmed.
However, 'high' demand was never ever really 'high' when taken in the context of general semiconductor terms. The EUV market represents end products that make up just 2% of the world's output. The other 98% is not EUV. Or that is what it was like until recently.
Chinese demand had already been factored out for this year (and last). ASML reportedly aimed to ship 60 EUV solutions worldwide this year. None ever planned for China during 2023. A 40% drop in EUV orders would therefore be a big factor for that tiny (but high profit side of business). In contrast, ASML planned to ship almost 400 DUV machines.
Yesterday the EU also announced its own Chips Act and also wants semi-conductor self sufficiency.
What is clear is that you can't move from a 'localised' fabrication setup to a globalised setup without incurring severe disruption.
Understandably, TSMC will be very reluctant to let that situation go without so much as a whimper (both for political and economic reasons).
A lack of demand just makes the situation worse so if governments want local fabs that are likely to be underperformant from an economic perspective they are going to have to susidise things and make the carrot very tempting.
The US Act was criticised from day one as not being clear enough on the financial terms nor long enough on time terms. It also had some very significant strings attached with regards to China.
TSMC, ASML and Samsung all had issues with that side of things. Samsung got a one year 'pass' and ASML stated outright that the plan would fail, the approach was wrong and it would impact its business.
The question remains the same, though. The breakdown of those lost orders. What part was destined for capacity expansion/renewal of equipment at existing fabs or was inked for new fabs on foreign soil?
Obviously, Chinas doesn't get any more DUV from Nikon or ASML, and no EUV from ASML, and doesn't get any of the semiconductors that come off of those fabs using DUV and EUV, which as I noted, effects NVIDIA and AMD primarily as they are limited in the types of GPU's and AI systems that they can sell into China. China is on its own with very little, and that expensive, at 7nm. Ultimately, ASML will not be selling into China anything advanced, so that market is now limited to the West and Western aligned democracies. There is also an accelerating trend to limiting technology transfer to China.
Taiwan ultimately won't be double taxed, and given that the fab in Arizona will be fully operational soon, it isn't like Taiwan wasn't aware that a 5nm fab was going to be cutting edge in the U.S. for long, but rather a hedge by the U.S. Defense Industry against a threat from China towards Taiwan.
If anything, the effect will be felt most in the EU, who had hopes of gaining fabs, that are now on likely on hold until the global economy shows signs of growth.
As for the strings attached to China, that isn't going to change, and frankly, even the EU has woken up to the threat of China's authoritarianism, well, excepting maybe Macron's France.
China has been out of that equation for a couple of years already. The rumored 40% cut came from existing orders, of which, none were from China.
This is about new fabs, EUV and process nodes at 5nm and below.
The EU is fine with it's plans for semiconductor self sufficiency. The first phase has already been announced and partners are onboard. From a government perspective, it all boils down to the amount of subsidies and the strings attached.
Huawei is still evaluating a fab for 5G in Germany BTW.
In other Huawei news;
https://www.reuters.com/technology/germany-set-ban-chinas-huawei-zte-parts-5g-networks-source-2023-03-07/
Germany has been very slow in addressing Huawei telecom equipment in their networks, but slowly beginning to deal with it.
That's a reasonable assumption given that at MWC, chipsets were on display but all the information relative to manufacturers was taped over.
Currently we know that a new fab is being built in Shenzhen and although outlets like Bloomberg claim it is 'secretive', it isn't. It just isn't finished yet. We do know a fair bit about it though.
In parallel, they have de-Americanised over 13,000 components and have completed work on an EDA platform, de-Americanising 78 software tools in the process.
Just two days ago there was a ceremony to celebrate their move to a homegrown ERP solution. The big loser in that case was Oracle. That transition has been described as a colossal move. Now the big question in this case isn't on de-Americanisation per se but if they will move into the ERP market and compete directly with Oracle and SAP and provide not only the software but also the hardware (local, edge, cloud, AI...) plus the private ICT infrastructure. Quite literally the whole widget. That, in China alone would have a massive impact on both SAP and Oracle.
Then there is the question of subsidies. The Chinese CHIPS Act equivalent is said to offer more than the US and EU efforts combined.
The Huawei fab in Germany is irrelevant here though. What is relevant is that China has no impact on the current situation with reduced EUV demand or TSMC fab plans.
https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/09/tech/germany-blocks-chip-factory-sale-china/index.html
That is IP flowing out of the country!
A Huawei fab inside Germany would be IP from the company flowing into the country.
It would mean direct and indirect job creation (the original prevision was for 2,000 jobs).
China would have no issue with that.
It would also mean adherence and compliance to EU supply chain rules and inspection. It would go hand in hand with Huawei's Cyber Security and Privacy Protection Transparency Centers, one of which is, you guessed it, in Germany.
Anyway, the details are irrelevant for this thread.
Okay...but, no link, and you yourself stated that it is "due to the sensitivity surrounding the geopolitical situation", which doesn't indicate a willingness to fab "dual use" components for Huawei, a state owned enterprise. Of course, the assumption is that Huawei would be the customer, right?