iPhone 15 demand will be lower than iPhone 14, says Kuo
Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo says that Apple's hardware sales for the rest of the year, including the iPhone 15, are expected to be lower than last year's figures.
Render of the forthcoming iPhone 15 Pro
Ahead of Apple's latest earnings call on August 3, 2023, Ming-Chi Kuo reports that his supply chain sources believe that shipment forecasts "are almost universally weaker in 2H23 than in 2H22."
Apple announces new iPhones in the second half of the year, but Kuo says that this will not be enough to make a difference.
"Although the 4Q22 iPhone shipments had declined due to the shutdown of Hon Hai's Zhengzhou factory in November 2022, most component shipment plans didn't change significantly in 4Q22," writes Kuo in his full report. "Unless the demand for the iPhone 15 is better than market expectations after launch, most of the suppliers will face growth pressure in 2H23 as the demand for iPhone 15 is lower than that of iPhone 14."
"Therefore, unless Apple clearly indicates that it's positive about market demand in 2H23 or 2024," says Kuo, "this [latest Apple] financial report is unlikely to be a positive for most suppliers' stock prices."
Other analysts are expecting that Apple's latest earnings report will benefit from high demand for the iPhone 14 in China.
Separately, the iPhone 15 is rumored to be bringing significant updates across the range. The lower end iPhone 15 and iPhone 15 Plus are expected to gain the Dynamic Island that was introduced with the iPhone 14 Pro.
Then the iPhone 15 Pro Max is rumored to have improved camera systems, this time including a periscope lens, which will greatly extend its zoom capability.
Read on AppleInsider
Comments
I still use an iPhone 7. That's why the iPhone 15 is extremely appealing to me, regardless of the price increase. Price increases hurt, but I am frugal and offset that by NOT upgrading every year, or even every 3 years. I got my iPhone 7 in 2017, for example. That was 6 years ago.
USB-C marks a huge change for the iPhone and will therefore become the new standard for connectivity (despite the ability to charge wirelessly), which is why I never considered the 14, and is why I didn't purchase thermal cameras or other Lightening peripherals because I knew that port change was coming.
The periscope lens on the top end models appeals to me, because I want the best camera tech Apple has to offer. And being able to shoot amazing photos in low light is also something I'm looking forward too, as my iPhone 7 is lacking in that area. Close up photography as well!
Thinner bezels are not a huge reason I am liking the 15, but such improvements are always welcome. I will miss the home button because I absolutely HATE gestures (I can't remember them), but the other feature improvements over my existing iPhone 7 should make that loss a bit less painful. I hate notches and dynamic islands, but again, the other feature benefits, like MORE RAM (my God, how important that is!) will be a rich blessing. I HATE going to Flipboard and opening an article, reading it half through, and then I need to focus on something else for an hour, come back, and stupid Flipboard has reloaded and no longer retains the place where I was reading in the article!!!! More RAM can solve those horrible app reloads!
Longer battery life, not to mention having a brand new battery, will be great. (I paid Apple to change the battery in my iPhone 7 once.) And even though I use cases and protective glass, knowing that modern iPhones are built to be even more robust than my iPhone 7 is very reassuring.
Then of course, being able to run the latest iOS (which my iPhone 7 cannot do, due to age), will be nice because it will be more secure (in theory).
I don't really like to be forced to use an eSIM. I would prefer the option to also use a physical SIM, but the other improvements in the phone take the pain out of that.
So what I think will drive iPhone 15 sales are people like me who don't deliberately drill holes in their wallets by upgrade every year or every other year. Not having upgraded in 6 years, the changes between iPhones are huge and make the upgrade very much worthwhile. But of course, that also means people like us will not be upgrading again for at least 5-6 years after the iPhone 15 purchase, and perhaps longer if the price is really high and if the faster processor, great camera and more RAM and still adequate for us in in 2029.
It should surprise no one that given inflationary pressures and a cost of living crisis in developed markets, things like phones will be harder to sell.
I use to upgrade every two years, now every three to four years. I sell my old iPhones on eBay. I am always gobsmacked by the feeding frenzy my three year old iPhone causes on eBay. I buy max capacity iPhones at the outset because those are the high demand models three years later. I consistently get 50+% of my purchase price back which makes the iPhone more affordable than any android device.
Of course i case my new phones well so that they remain like new and make sure the battery is in good shape before i sell them.
The only actual data I have is that my demand for an iPhone 15 will be way higher than my demand is/was for an iPhone 14. It is just time for me, and I put it off a year on the promise of a USB-C model.
That’s because most of the world will take (buy) that 2 to 3 year old iPhone or iPad Pro or MacBook computer and replace an Android/Window device in the process, I have an 11 Pro iPhone which is four years old, along with a four year old iPad Pro 12.9 both will be easily very usable for another 2 to 3 years, not that I’m going to keep it that long, but I can if I want to, that is why buying Apple devices are very sensible because they last a long time when compared to the competition, yes you do pay more upfront, but almost everything Apple makes has a higher resale value than their Android, or Windows equivalents after 2 years.
Also, another thing that hardly brought up (by the called experts) is that many families gift their two or three year old Apple devices to other family members, who by the way, gladly snap them up, like baby chicks in a nest.
Housing affordability in the US, UK, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand, notice the English-speaking trend, isn’t going to change anytime soon (probably get worse), since 2008 most of my neighbors haven’t moved, another trend, I have noticed is more cars in the driveways as more and more people in my part of California are living
multi-generational now in each house similar to many of the Asian countries.
Note: that hasn’t stopped many people from owning some type of smartphone and some type of portable computer, why? because you can’t get along without something, the days of phone booths are over, and if you go to school, owing a laptop computer is pretty much mandatory, and if you can’t afford new right away guess which brand is hot on the used market. As investor Apple wins long-term.
Time will Tell.
https://www.zillow.com/rental-manager/market-trends/ca/
Some sites list it a bit lower and there seem to be some rentals around $1500/month, every month.
Apple's newest phones on 24-month contract are $799-1099 (one-off) / 24 = $33-45/month + service $50/month = $83-95/month.
It's easy to see why people, even homeless people, have smartphones because their monthly cost is around 1/20th the cost of rent and are essential items for daily life. Apple is in a great position with this business because the iPhone is a premium product that is affordable for most people (billions) and they sell with healthy margins.
People's upgrade cycle will slow but Apple has a 7 year cycle for support so people will almost always upgrade every 8 years when apps stop working. 1.5 billion customer base / 8 = 187m sales every year. Currently they sell over 200m per year.
Peak iPhone has been predicted for years and there has always been a new area for growth. Eventually growth opportunities will run out as the markets get saturated but Apple has a minority marketshare - 2:1-3:1 vs Android so there will be new potential customers for a long time. Even if it flattens out, selling around 200m phones every year would be a good place to be.