iPhone 15 demand will be lower than iPhone 14, says Kuo

AppleInsider

Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo says that Apple's hardware sales for the rest of the year, including the iPhone 15, are expected to be lower than last year's figures.

Render of the forthcoming iPhone 15 Pro

Ahead of Apple's latest earnings call on August 3, 2023, Ming-Chi Kuo reports that his supply chain sources believe that shipment forecasts "are almost universally weaker in 2H23 than in 2H22."

Apple announces new iPhones in the second half of the year, but Kuo says that this will not be enough to make a difference.

"Although the 4Q22 iPhone shipments had declined due to the shutdown of Hon Hai's Zhengzhou factory in November 2022, most component shipment plans didn't change significantly in 4Q22," writes Kuo in his full report. "Unless the demand for the iPhone 15 is better than market expectations after launch, most of the suppliers will face growth pressure in 2H23 as the demand for iPhone 15 is lower than that of iPhone 14."

"Therefore, unless Apple clearly indicates that it's positive about market demand in 2H23 or 2024," says Kuo, "this [latest Apple] financial report is unlikely to be a positive for most suppliers' stock prices."

Other analysts are expecting that Apple's latest earnings report will benefit from high demand for the iPhone 14 in China.

Separately, the iPhone 15 is rumored to be bringing significant updates across the range. The lower end iPhone 15 and iPhone 15 Plus are expected to gain the Dynamic Island that was introduced with the iPhone 14 Pro.

Then the iPhone 15 Pro Max is rumored to have improved camera systems, this time including a periscope lens, which will greatly extend its zoom capability.

Read on AppleInsider

retrogusto

AppleInsider said:

Separately, the iPhone 15 is rumored to be bringing significant updates across the range.

I clicked this link to see if there was a rumor I had forgotten about, but apart from the periscope lens on the Pro Max and a potentially more efficient processor, I don’t see how any of these changes would significantly improve the iPhone experience. Would anyone really pay hundreds of dollars for slightly thinner bezels? Maybe somebody shooting ProRes video on a daily basis would benefit from a faster USB-C connection, but for charging, I doubt it will beat Lightning for convenience. The phone will probably be incrementally thicker and heavier, as usual, and I hope I’ll still be able to look at my ringer switch and know the status of the ringer. Apple could certainly still surprise us, for sure, but I wouldn’t say that there are a lot of exciting rumors out there yet. Nothing that compares to the introduction of water resistance, or retina displays, or Touch ID, or Face ID, or telephoto cameras, 3G, 4G or 5G, etc. Not that I blame them—the iPhone is already extremely good in so many ways that it’s getting very hard to improve.

jdw

I disagree with Ming-Chi Kuo and Retrogusto for the specific reason of knowing there are a lot of people out there like myself.

I still use an iPhone 7.  That's why the iPhone 15 is extremely appealing to me, regardless of the price increase.  Price increases hurt, but I am frugal and offset that by NOT upgrading every year, or even every 3 years.  I got my iPhone 7 in 2017, for example.  That was 6 years ago.  

USB-C marks a huge change for the iPhone and will therefore become the new standard for connectivity (despite the ability to charge wirelessly), which is why I never considered the 14, and is why I didn't purchase thermal cameras or other Lightening peripherals because I knew that port change was coming.  

The periscope lens on the top end models appeals to me, because I want the best camera tech Apple has to offer.  And being able to shoot amazing photos in low light is also something I'm looking forward too, as my iPhone 7 is lacking in that area.  Close up photography as well!

Thinner bezels are not a huge reason I am liking the 15, but such improvements are always welcome.  I will miss the home button because I absolutely HATE gestures (I can't remember them), but the other feature improvements over my existing iPhone 7 should make that loss a bit less painful.  I hate notches and dynamic islands, but again, the other feature benefits, like MORE RAM (my God, how important that is!) will be a rich blessing.  I HATE going to Flipboard and opening an article, reading it half through, and then I need to focus on something else for an hour, come back, and stupid Flipboard has reloaded and no longer retains the place where I was reading in the article!!!!  More RAM can solve those horrible app reloads!

Longer battery life, not to mention having a brand new battery, will be great. (I paid Apple to change the battery in my iPhone 7 once.)  And even though I use cases and protective glass, knowing that modern iPhones are built to be even more robust than my iPhone 7 is very reassuring.

Then of course, being able to run the latest iOS (which my iPhone 7 cannot do, due to age), will be nice because it will be more secure (in theory).

I don't really like to be forced to use an eSIM.  I would prefer the option to also use a physical SIM, but the other improvements in the phone take the pain out of that.

So what I think will drive iPhone 15 sales are people like me who don't deliberately drill holes in their wallets by upgrade every year or every other year.  Not having upgraded in 6 years, the changes between iPhones are huge and make the upgrade very much worthwhile.  But of course, that also means people like us will not be upgrading again for at least 5-6 years after the iPhone 15 purchase, and perhaps longer if the price is really high and if the faster processor, great camera and more RAM and still adequate for us in in 2029.

The only thing that could impact sales is the economic situation.  Inflation is crazy.  People in CA can't afford rent.  So even if you haven't upgraded in 6 years like me, if you can't afford the basics in life, you would be a fool to spend all your cash on a new phone.  Then again, there are a lot of fools out there, so who knows how it will go.

M68000

jdw said:

I disagree with Ming-Chi Kuo and Retrogusto for the specific reason of knowing there are a lot of people out there like myself.

I still use an iPhone 7.  That's why the iPhone 15 is extremely appealing to me, regardless of the price increase.  Price increases hurt, but I am frugal and offset that by NOT upgrading every year, or even every 3 years.  I got my iPhone 7 in 2017, for example.  That was 6 years ago.  

USB-C marks a huge change for the iPhone and will therefore become the new standard for connectivity (despite the ability to charge wirelessly), which is why I never considered the 14, and is why I didn't purchase thermal cameras or other Lightening peripherals because I knew that port change was coming.  

The periscope lens on the top end models appeals to me, because I want the best camera tech Apple has to offer.  And being able to shoot amazing photos in low light is also something I'm looking forward too, as my iPhone 7 is lacking in that area.  Close up photography as well!

Thinner bezels are not a huge reason I am liking the 15, but such improvements are always welcome.  I will miss the home button because I absolutely HATE gestures (I can't remember them), but the other feature improvements over my existing iPhone 7 should make that loss a bit less painful.  I hate notches and dynamic islands, but again, the other feature benefits, like MORE RAM (my God, how important that is!) will be a rich blessing.  I HATE going to Flipboard and opening an article, reading it half through, and then I need to focus on something else for an hour, come back, and stupid Flipboard has reloaded and no longer retains the place where I was reading in the article!!!!  More RAM can solve those horrible app reloads!

Longer battery life, not to mention having a brand new battery, will be great. (I paid Apple to change the battery in my iPhone 7 once.)  And even though I use cases and protective glass, knowing that modern iPhones are built to be even more robust than my iPhone 7 is very reassuring.

Then of course, being able to run the latest iOS (which my iPhone 7 cannot do, due to age), will be nice because it will be more secure (in theory).

I don't really like to be forced to use an eSIM.  I would prefer the option to also use a physical SIM, but the other improvements in the phone take the pain out of that.

So what I think will drive iPhone 15 sales are people like me who don't deliberately drill holes in their wallets by upgrade every year or every other year.  Not having upgraded in 6 years, the changes between iPhones are huge and make the upgrade very much worthwhile.  But of course, that also means people like us will not be upgrading again for at least 5-6 years after the iPhone 15 purchase, and perhaps longer if the price is really high and if the faster processor, great camera and more RAM and still adequate for us in in 2029.

The only thing that could impact sales is the economic situation.  Inflation is crazy.  People in CA can't afford rent.  So even if you haven't upgraded in 6 years like me, if you can't afford the basics in life, you would be a fool to spend all your cash on a new phone.  Then again, there are a lot of fools out there, so who knows how it will go.

Once you have the new phone for a week,  you won’t miss the home button at all.  Just learn the new gestures. But you might miss touch ID,  time will tell if we get future iphone with underscreen touch ID.

johnnybtrue

I cannot wait for the new IPhone 15 pro max.   I am really excited by the new customizable action button.  I am glad that they are getting rid of the mute switch on the side.  I am constantly turning off ringer by mistake with my case.  I am also looking forward to even thinner bezels  and the telescopic camera enhancements.  I will upgrade as soon as possible And love it !!  Having the latest and best Apple devices available  matters to me.  !!   Thanks! 

avon b7

Qualcomm has just announced a weaker than expected forecast and partly put it down to macroeconomic headwinds.

It should surprise no one that given inflationary pressures and a cost of living crisis in developed markets, things like phones will be harder to sell. 

tyler82

M68000 said:

jdw said:

I disagree with Ming-Chi Kuo and Retrogusto for the specific reason of knowing there are a lot of people out there like myself.

I still use an iPhone 7.  That's why the iPhone 15 is extremely appealing to me, regardless of the price increase.  Price increases hurt, but I am frugal and offset that by NOT upgrading every year, or even every 3 years.  I got my iPhone 7 in 2017, for example.  That was 6 years ago.  

USB-C marks a huge change for the iPhone and will therefore become the new standard for connectivity (despite the ability to charge wirelessly), which is why I never considered the 14, and is why I didn't purchase thermal cameras or other Lightening peripherals because I knew that port change was coming.  

The periscope lens on the top end models appeals to me, because I want the best camera tech Apple has to offer.  And being able to shoot amazing photos in low light is also something I'm looking forward too, as my iPhone 7 is lacking in that area.  Close up photography as well!

Thinner bezels are not a huge reason I am liking the 15, but such improvements are always welcome.  I will miss the home button because I absolutely HATE gestures (I can't remember them), but the other feature improvements over my existing iPhone 7 should make that loss a bit less painful.  I hate notches and dynamic islands, but again, the other feature benefits, like MORE RAM (my God, how important that is!) will be a rich blessing.  I HATE going to Flipboard and opening an article, reading it half through, and then I need to focus on something else for an hour, come back, and stupid Flipboard has reloaded and no longer retains the place where I was reading in the article!!!!  More RAM can solve those horrible app reloads!

Longer battery life, not to mention having a brand new battery, will be great. (I paid Apple to change the battery in my iPhone 7 once.)  And even though I use cases and protective glass, knowing that modern iPhones are built to be even more robust than my iPhone 7 is very reassuring.

Then of course, being able to run the latest iOS (which my iPhone 7 cannot do, due to age), will be nice because it will be more secure (in theory).

I don't really like to be forced to use an eSIM.  I would prefer the option to also use a physical SIM, but the other improvements in the phone take the pain out of that.

So what I think will drive iPhone 15 sales are people like me who don't deliberately drill holes in their wallets by upgrade every year or every other year.  Not having upgraded in 6 years, the changes between iPhones are huge and make the upgrade very much worthwhile.  But of course, that also means people like us will not be upgrading again for at least 5-6 years after the iPhone 15 purchase, and perhaps longer if the price is really high and if the faster processor, great camera and more RAM and still adequate for us in in 2029.

The only thing that could impact sales is the economic situation.  Inflation is crazy.  People in CA can't afford rent.  So even if you haven't upgraded in 6 years like me, if you can't afford the basics in life, you would be a fool to spend all your cash on a new phone.  Then again, there are a lot of fools out there, so who knows how it will go.

Once you have the new phone for a week,  you won’t miss the home button at all.  Just learn the new gestures. But you might miss touch ID,  time will tell if we get future iphone with underscreen touch ID.

I hate that it is impossible to use any gestures (like scrubbing a video when the progress bar is close to the bottom of the screen) without activating the Home Screen. That is what I miss about the home button. The bottom part of the iPhone display is no longer useable in apps. 

badmonk

Despite the success of the iPhone and the necessity of it in daily life and the fact that the majority if people are on older models and hence ready for a theoretical upgrade is that fhe secondary market of older or refurbished devices is very good.  This I think is the missing point in these discussions.  The reality is that iPhones are very reliable if not abused.

I use to upgrade every two years, now every three to four years.  I sell my old iPhones on eBay.  I am always gobsmacked by the feeding frenzy my three year old iPhone causes on eBay.  I buy max capacity iPhones at the outset because those are the high demand models three years later.  I consistently get 50+% of my purchase price back which makes the iPhone more affordable than any android device.

Of course i case my new phones well so that they remain like new and make sure the battery is in good shape before i sell them.

Sigur

I’m certain that those upstairs at Apple HQ do at least have a quick peek at the rumors and speculation that always seems to increase in number the closer to the release of a new iteration of iPhone, but then laugh up their sleeves because only they no what is fact and what isn’t… The speculation that is circulating around the iPhone 15 Pro versions probably going to carry a significant increase in $$$, £££, and €€€ when it is finally announced in September if true at the moment should make Apple pause before finally settling on the cost Apple is going to expect us to pay if we decide we want to own one, because even though I am no expert claiming to know what is actually just around the corner when it comes to what Apple will actually be charging us to get our hot little hands on a 15 (base models or Pro) could (and probably will…) play a huge part in whether we stick with the iPhone model we currently have or take the plunge and hand over our hard earned $$$, £££, or €€€ for it! I myself am already torn between keeping my 14 Pro Max (which I am very happy with) and splashing out on (hopefully) a 2nd generation Ultra, or going for a Pro Max version of a 15 and sticking with my current S7 Apple Watch for another year… IF Apple do release an updated version of the Ultra (a slightly bigger screen and a decent % increase in performance speed) then come September I’ll probably be doing a lot of thinking because I’ve held off buying the current Ultra version in the hope that the two improvements I’ve just mentioned will arrive in the 2nd generation of Apple Watch Ultra. Being able to use my watch as a dive computer and not having to swap them before I start a dive will be fantastic (I’ve already got a buyer (a friend) waiting to buy the dive computer I currently use, the cash I receive for it will help soften the blow my wallet will experience when I pay whatever Apple is charging for the 2nd generation Ultra. So the sooner September arrives and Apple reveals what it releasing next (iPhone Pro Max & Apple Watch Ultra wise…) the better as far as I’m concerned.

eightzero

badmonk said:

Despite the success of the iPhone and the necessity of it in daily life and the fact that the majority if people are on older models and hence ready for a theoretical upgrade is that fhe secondary market of older or refurbished devices is very good.  This I think is the missing point in these discussions.  The reality is that iPhones are very reliable if not abused.

I use to upgrade every two years, now every three to four years.  I sell my old iPhones on eBay.  I am always gobsmacked by the feeding frenzy my three year old iPhone causes on eBay.  I buy max capacity iPhones at the outset because those are the high demand models three years later.  I consistently get 50+% of my purchase price back which makes the iPhone more affordable than any android device.

Of course i case my new phones well so that they remain like new and make sure the battery is in good shape before i sell them.

This is sort of the "subscription" model many companies are adopting. Where there's a demand for consumers to have current items (hardware or software) it can work well. The real issue for consumers (like myself) is whether or not the value of having to take the measures you describe, and simply let the retailer do it for me. There is often a usury amount changed though. 

The only actual data I have is that my demand for an iPhone 15 will be way higher than my demand is/was for an iPhone 14. It is just time for me, and I put it off a year on the promise of a USB-C model. 

king editor the grate

I initially read 2H23 as 2423, and thought, hoo boy, this chuzzlewit has gone out on limbs before, but this is officially out of hand speculation. 

danox

badmonk said:

Despite the success of the iPhone and the necessity of it in daily life and the fact that the majority if people are on older models and hence ready for a theoretical upgrade is that fhe secondary market of older or refurbished devices is very good.  This I think is the missing point in these discussions.  The reality is that iPhones are very reliable if not abused.

I use to upgrade every two years, now every three to four years.  I sell my old iPhones on eBay.  I am always gobsmacked by the feeding frenzy my three year old iPhone causes on eBay.  I buy max capacity iPhones at the outset because those are the high demand models three years later.  I consistently get 50+% of my purchase price back which makes the iPhone more affordable than any android device.

Of course i case my new phones well so that they remain like new and make sure the battery is in good shape before i sell them.

That’s because most of the world will take (buy) that 2 to 3 year old iPhone or iPad Pro or MacBook computer and replace an Android/Window device in the process, I have an 11 Pro iPhone which is four years old, along with a four year old iPad Pro 12.9 both will be easily very usable for another 2 to 3 years, not that I’m going to keep it that long, but I can if I want to, that is why buying Apple devices are very sensible because they last a long time when compared to the competition, yes you do pay more upfront, but almost everything Apple makes has a higher resale value than their Android, or Windows equivalents after 2 years.

Also, another thing that hardly brought up (by the called experts) is that many families gift their two or three year old Apple devices to other family members, who by the way, gladly snap them up, like baby chicks in a nest.

danox

jdw said:

The only thing that could impact sales is the economic situation.  Inflation is crazy.  People in CA can't afford rent.  So even if you haven't upgraded in 6 years like me, if you can't afford the basics in life, you would be a fool to spend all your cash on a new phone.  Then again, there are a lot of fools out there, so who knows how it will go.

Housing affordability in the US, UK, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand, notice the English-speaking trend, isn’t going to change anytime soon (probably get worse), since 2008 most of my neighbors haven’t moved, another trend, I have noticed is more cars in the driveways as more and more people in my part of California are living
multi-generational now in each house similar to many of the Asian countries.

Note: that hasn’t stopped many people from owning some type of smartphone and some type of portable computer, why? because you can’t get along without something, the days of phone booths are over, and if you go to school, owing a laptop computer is pretty much mandatory, and if you can’t afford new right away guess which brand is hot on the used market. As investor Apple wins long-term.

waveparticle

avon b7 said:

Qualcomm has just announced a weaker than expected forecast and partly put it down to macroeconomic headwinds.

It should surprise no one that given inflationary pressures and a cost of living crisis in developed markets, things like phones will be harder to sell. 

China young people unemployment is reaching 20%. Without a job, these people will not buy a new iPhone. 

wood1208

Kuo can be right on features of upcoming Apple gadget because you learn from Apple's hints and supply chain leakage. But he is not a future reading ability person or has time machine so he could be wrong on iPhone 15 will sell less than iPhone 14.
Time will Tell.

Marvin

danox said:

jdw said:

The only thing that could impact sales is the economic situation.  Inflation is crazy.  People in CA can't afford rent.  So even if you haven't upgraded in 6 years like me, if you can't afford the basics in life, you would be a fool to spend all your cash on a new phone.  Then again, there are a lot of fools out there, so who knows how it will go.

Housing affordability in the US, UK, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand, notice the English-speaking trend, isn’t going to change anytime soon (probably get worse), since 2008 most of my neighbors haven’t moved, another trend, I have noticed is more cars in the driveways as more and more people in my part of California are living
multi-generational now in each house similar to many of the Asian countries.

Note: that hasn’t stopped many people from owning some type of smartphone and some type of portable computer, why? because you can’t get along without something, the days of phone booths are over, and if you go to school, owing a laptop computer is pretty much mandatory, and if you can’t afford new right away guess which brand is hot on the used market. As investor Apple wins long-term.

Few people buy phones outright, most are on contract. This site says median rent in California is $2900:

https://www.zillow.com/rental-manager/market-trends/ca/

Some sites list it a bit lower and there seem to be some rentals around $1500/month, every month.

Apple's newest phones on 24-month contract are $799-1099 (one-off) / 24 = $33-45/month + service $50/month = $83-95/month.

It's easy to see why people, even homeless people, have smartphones because their monthly cost is around 1/20th the cost of rent and are essential items for daily life. Apple is in a great position with this business because the iPhone is a premium product that is affordable for most people (billions) and they sell with healthy margins.

People's upgrade cycle will slow but Apple has a 7 year cycle for support so people will almost always upgrade every 8 years when apps stop working. 1.5 billion customer base / 8 = 187m sales every year. Currently they sell over 200m per year.

Peak iPhone has been predicted for years and there has always been a new area for growth. Eventually growth opportunities will run out as the markets get saturated but Apple has a minority marketshare - 2:1-3:1 vs Android so there will be new potential customers for a long time. Even if it flattens out, selling around 200m phones every year would be a good place to be.

waveparticle

Marvin said:

danox said:

jdw said:

The only thing that could impact sales is the economic situation.  Inflation is crazy.  People in CA can't afford rent.  So even if you haven't upgraded in 6 years like me, if you can't afford the basics in life, you would be a fool to spend all your cash on a new phone.  Then again, there are a lot of fools out there, so who knows how it will go.

Housing affordability in the US, UK, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand, notice the English-speaking trend, isn’t going to change anytime soon (probably get worse), since 2008 most of my neighbors haven’t moved, another trend, I have noticed is more cars in the driveways as more and more people in my part of California are living
multi-generational now in each house similar to many of the Asian countries.

Note: that hasn’t stopped many people from owning some type of smartphone and some type of portable computer, why? because you can’t get along without something, the days of phone booths are over, and if you go to school, owing a laptop computer is pretty much mandatory, and if you can’t afford new right away guess which brand is hot on the used market. As investor Apple wins long-term.

Few people buy phones outright, most are on contract. This site says median rent in California is $2900:

https://www.zillow.com/rental-manager/market-trends/ca/

Some sites list it a bit lower and there seem to be some rentals around $1500/month, every month.

Apple's newest phones on 24-month contract are $799-1099 (one-off) / 24 = $33-45/month + service $50/month = $83-95/month.

It's easy to see why people, even homeless people, have smartphones because their monthly cost is around 1/20th the cost of rent and are essential items for daily life. Apple is in a great position with this business because the iPhone is a premium product that is affordable for most people (billions) and they sell with healthy margins.

People's upgrade cycle will slow but Apple has a 7 year cycle for support so people will almost always upgrade every 8 years when apps stop working. 1.5 billion customer base / 8 = 187m sales every year. Currently they sell over 200m per year.

Peak iPhone has been predicted for years and there has always been a new area for growth. Eventually growth opportunities will run out as the markets get saturated but Apple has a minority marketshare - 2:1-3:1 vs Android so there will be new potential customers for a long time. Even if it flattens out, selling around 200m phones every year would be a good place to be.

In China, foreigners found very hard to buy things. All local people are using the smartphone to make purchases even to street vendors. The problem in US is the telecom companies are charging too much monthly. Average person is paying more than $50 per month which if far more than the cost of iPhone average over its usage span. 

longfang

For my group of users the fact that there isn’t a 4 in 15 is a major plus. 

FileMakerFeller

longfang said:

For my group of users the fact that there isn’t a 4 in 15 is a major plus. 

And 5 is lucky.