No one except Apple knows when Apple will introduce it's own home grown 5G in products.
Qualcomm will know.
In a recent earnings call they stated that there would be no further material revenues from Huawei. Last week Huawei released its own 5G capable phone.
Expect the same to happen when it comes to losing Apple’s modem revenues.
In essence, Huawei is getting the fruits of the few SMIC DUV machines in China, to make a nominally 5nm SOC, that may sell in China something on the order of up to 40 million units, at great effort and expense, but will not, to put it charitably, be competitive with any leading Qualcomm SOC, and certainly not any A Series.
For that, the U.S., et al, will yet again tighten the screws on any incoming semiconductor, AI, or aerospace tech attempted to be exported from the West.
Looks like you completely missed my point, which was Qualcomm will know and be forced to eventually make it known during an earnings call.
Except Qualcomm may not know. Apple may debut their chip in only one line of phones at first (say, an SE update) so Qualcomm may not detect materially significant changes in orders until after the Apple modem chip makes its public commercial debut. Apple may then move the chip into all their other lines later. Affecting Qualcomm, but after the chips debut publicly
No one except Apple knows when Apple will introduce it's own home grown 5G in products.
Qualcomm will know.
In a recent earnings call they stated that there would be no further material revenues from Huawei. Last week Huawei released its own 5G capable phone.
Expect the same to happen when it comes to losing Apple’s modem revenues.
In essence, Huawei is getting the fruits of the few SMIC DUV machines in China, to make a nominally 5nm SOC, that may sell in China something on the order of up to 40 million units, at great effort and expense, but will not, to put it charitably, be competitive with any leading Qualcomm SOC, and certainly not any A Series.
For that, the U.S., et al, will yet again tighten the screws on any incoming semiconductor, AI, or aerospace tech attempted to be exported from the West.
Should Apple have waited with the release of Apple Silicon because the GPU wasn’t quite there when compared to Nvidia? When Apple rolls with their in-house modem, it won’t be quite as good as the Qualcomm modem but, they don’t necessarily need it to be at first and neither does Huawei.
In time Apple will reach parity, for example with the Nvidia, GPUs probably by the M4, M5 SOC’s. For many of those things you mentioned you don’t need to be the best necessarily at the beginning it’s where you end up, for example, the South Korean car industry is a hell of a lot better than those pieces of crap that they made in the 1980s.
The question is, will the Chinese give up and the answer is probably not. And that is why the United States needs to worry about itself, and its infrastructure internally, don’t be Brexit Britain in the future, and sanctions will not work long term you’re just delaying things, and not for very long either.
That's all fine speculation, but the problem for China is that their population is rapidly aging, with a notable population decline. China has yet to create a consumer economy, and they have stopped investing in housing and infrastructure, because of overbuilding. China will have to internally fund that transition from Western Semiconductor technology to home grown. Having a limited production at a 5nm equivalent and a 50% yield using existing Western 14 nm fab technology is impressive, but not really scalable. Moving on from there will be expensive, difficult, and unlikely to ever catch up to the West, but sure, China will at some point fully control its semiconductor technology.
As for Apple's Silicon, which is designed for low power and efficiency, Apple hasn't yet been challenged in notebooks, phones, tablets or even some of its desktops (at similar TDP). Ultimately, Apple's competitors, will for the most part, be able to catch up with Apple Silicon, but likely not surpass it, again except at higher TDP.
As for the modem, Apple is in a position to take its time to deliver it, even if ultimately Qualcomm will still end up having a performance advantage, since Apple negotiated an expansive contract that covers them for almost all possible contingencies.
No one except Apple knows when Apple will introduce it's own home grown 5G in products.
Qualcomm will know.
In a recent earnings call they stated that there would be no further material revenues from Huawei. Last week Huawei released its own 5G capable phone.
Expect the same to happen when it comes to losing Apple’s modem revenues.
In essence, Huawei is getting the fruits of the few SMIC DUV machines in China, to make a nominally 5nm SOC, that may sell in China something on the order of up to 40 million units, at great effort and expense, but will not, to put it charitably, be competitive with any leading Qualcomm SOC, and certainly not any A Series.
For that, the U.S., et al, will yet again tighten the screws on any incoming semiconductor, AI, or aerospace tech attempted to be exported from the West.
Looks like you completely missed my point, which was Qualcomm will know and be forced to eventually make it known during an earnings call.
Except Qualcomm may not know. Apple may debut their chip in only one line of phones at first (say, an SE update) so Qualcomm may not detect materially significant changes in orders until after the Apple modem chip makes its public commercial debut. Apple may then move the chip into all their other lines later. Affecting Qualcomm, but after the chips debut publicly
Qualcomm will definitely know and probably very early on in the procurement process. Anything that notably impacts its revenues will need to be reported in an earnings call.
It's also worth remembering that Apple has engineers within Qualcomm who are working closely on every Apple product that is in the pipeline and requires QC IP.
The same probably applies to the carriers too. I know for a fact that before the US government killed the deal between Huawei and AT&T, both companies spent a year tuning the modem on the Kirin970 to AT&T infrastructure.
No one except Apple knows when Apple will introduce it's own home grown 5G in products.
Qualcomm will know.
In a recent earnings call they stated that there would be no further material revenues from Huawei. Last week Huawei released its own 5G capable phone.
Expect the same to happen when it comes to losing Apple’s modem revenues.
In essence, Huawei is getting the fruits of the few SMIC DUV machines in China, to make a nominally 5nm SOC, that may sell in China something on the order of up to 40 million units, at great effort and expense, but will not, to put it charitably, be competitive with any leading Qualcomm SOC, and certainly not any A Series.
For that, the U.S., et al, will yet again tighten the screws on any incoming semiconductor, AI, or aerospace tech attempted to be exported from the West.
Should Apple have waited with the release of Apple Silicon because the GPU wasn’t quite there when compared to Nvidia? When Apple rolls with their in-house modem, it won’t be quite as good as the Qualcomm modem but, they don’t necessarily need it to be at first and neither does Huawei.
In time Apple will reach parity, for example with the Nvidia, GPUs probably by the M4, M5 SOC’s. For many of those things you mentioned you don’t need to be the best necessarily at the beginning it’s where you end up, for example, the South Korean car industry is a hell of a lot better than those pieces of crap that they made in the 1980s.
The question is, will the Chinese give up and the answer is probably not. And that is why the United States needs to worry about itself, and its infrastructure internally, don’t be Brexit Britain in the future, and sanctions will not work long term you’re just delaying things, and not for very long either.
That's all fine speculation, but the problem for China is that their population is rapidly aging, with a notable population decline. China has yet to create a consumer economy, and they have stopped investing in housing and infrastructure, because of overbuilding. China will have to internally fund that transition from Western Semiconductor technology to home grown. Having a limited production at a 5nm equivalent and a 50% yield using existing Western 14 nm fab technology is impressive, but not really scalable. Moving on from there will be expensive, difficult, and unlikely to ever catch up to the West, but sure, China will at some point fully control its semiconductor technology.
As for Apple's Silicon, which is designed for low power and efficiency, Apple hasn't yet been challenged in notebooks, phones, tablets or even some of its desktops (at similar TDP). Ultimately, Apple's competitors, will for the most part, be able to catch up with Apple Silicon, but likely not surpass it, again except at higher TDP.
As for the modem, Apple is in a position to take its time to deliver it, even if ultimately Qualcomm will still end up having a performance advantage, since Apple negotiated an expansive contract that covers them for almost all possible contingencies.
Absolute and utter nonsense. Sorry to be so blunt.
Less than 10% of the world's chipset output is on cutting edge nodes.
Almost all of it is on very mature, non-cutting edge nodes.
That, 'old' technology is really what makes the world go around. It definitely isn't the latest process nodes. There's no doubt that the latest nodes can make a lot of money in certain areas (phones are one of them) but even in phones, if we never got beyond 28nm the world would still be happy.
Even now. Right now. ASML sales of DUV lithography units VASTLY outnumber sales of EUV machines and that isn't going to change for years because that demand will remain.
As of November 2022, ASML's backlog of orders was around 600 DUV units and 100 EUV units.
The US will try to trip China up at every turn. It will bully allies. It will try to choke and kill companies but there is no way it's going to stop China catching up and probably surpassing the US far sooner than you predict.
Current US policy is actually pushing China to reach parity. It's a DIRECT result of foreign policy decisions.
Those same decisions are also starving its home semiconductor industry of revenues from its biggest customers, many of whom are Chinese.
The crazy thing is that analysts and industry players have always made this clear to the government.
It's just that the government doesn't want to listen so it's just a matter of watching things play out.
In a way it reminds me of Brexit. People will only realise what's happening when it's too late.
No one except Apple knows when Apple will introduce it's own home grown 5G in products.
Qualcomm will know.
In a recent earnings call they stated that there would be no further material revenues from Huawei. Last week Huawei released its own 5G capable phone.
Expect the same to happen when it comes to losing Apple’s modem revenues.
In essence, Huawei is getting the fruits of the few SMIC DUV machines in China, to make a nominally 5nm SOC, that may sell in China something on the order of up to 40 million units, at great effort and expense, but will not, to put it charitably, be competitive with any leading Qualcomm SOC, and certainly not any A Series.
For that, the U.S., et al, will yet again tighten the screws on any incoming semiconductor, AI, or aerospace tech attempted to be exported from the West.
Should Apple have waited with the release of Apple Silicon because the GPU wasn’t quite there when compared to Nvidia? When Apple rolls with their in-house modem, it won’t be quite as good as the Qualcomm modem but, they don’t necessarily need it to be at first and neither does Huawei.
In time Apple will reach parity, for example with the Nvidia, GPUs probably by the M4, M5 SOC’s. For many of those things you mentioned you don’t need to be the best necessarily at the beginning it’s where you end up, for example, the South Korean car industry is a hell of a lot better than those pieces of crap that they made in the 1980s.
The question is, will the Chinese give up and the answer is probably not. And that is why the United States needs to worry about itself, and its infrastructure internally, don’t be Brexit Britain in the future, and sanctions will not work long term you’re just delaying things, and not for very long either.
That's all fine speculation, but the problem for China is that their population is rapidly aging, with a notable population decline. China has yet to create a consumer economy, and they have stopped investing in housing and infrastructure, because of overbuilding. China will have to internally fund that transition from Western Semiconductor technology to home grown. Having a limited production at a 5nm equivalent and a 50% yield using existing Western 14 nm fab technology is impressive, but not really scalable. Moving on from there will be expensive, difficult, and unlikely to ever catch up to the West, but sure, China will at some point fully control its semiconductor technology.
As for Apple's Silicon, which is designed for low power and efficiency, Apple hasn't yet been challenged in notebooks, phones, tablets or even some of its desktops (at similar TDP). Ultimately, Apple's competitors, will for the most part, be able to catch up with Apple Silicon, but likely not surpass it, again except at higher TDP.
As for the modem, Apple is in a position to take its time to deliver it, even if ultimately Qualcomm will still end up having a performance advantage, since Apple negotiated an expansive contract that covers them for almost all possible contingencies.
Absolute and utter nonsense. Sorry to be so blunt.
Less than 10% of the world's chipset output is on cutting edge nodes.
Almost all of it is on very mature, non-cutting edge nodes.
That, 'old' technology is really what makes the world go around. It definitely isn't the latest process nodes. There's no doubt that the latest nodes can make a lot of money in certain areas (phones are one of them) but even in phones, if we never got beyond 28nm the world would still be happy.
Even now. Right now. ASML sales of DUV lithography units VASTLY outnumber sales of EUV machines and that isn't going to change for years because that demand will remain.
As of November 2022, ASML's backlog of orders was around 600 DUV units and 100 EUV units.
The US will try to trip China up at every turn. It will bully allies. It will try to choke and kill companies but there is no way it's going to stop China catching up and probably surpassing the US far sooner than you predict.
Current US policy is actually pushing China to reach parity. It's a DIRECT result of foreign policy decisions.
Those same decisions are also starving its home semiconductor industry of revenues from its biggest customers, many of whom are Chinese.
The crazy thing is that analysts and industry players have always made this clear to the government.
It's just that the government doesn't want to listen so it's just a matter of watching things play out.
In a way it reminds me of Brexit. People will only realise what's happening when it's too late.
ASML isn't selling DUV machines into China anymore, but I'd surmise the India has a better opportunity of gaining Western semiconductor technology, than China will ever again. Meanwhile, the U.S. economy is one of the strongest in the world, and China's economy is slowing down, so I'm not one to worry about Qualcomm losses from Huawei internally sourcing semiconductors.
China is now not likely to ever surpass the U.S. in GDP, and that's on Xi, not on the U.S., because the kind of government has consequences, and for a guy that says that governments are "irrelevant" and then notes the failure of Brexit, you don't seem to be grounded in reality.
Meanwhile, Huawei has been caught sourcing SK Hynix memory, so not so fully sourced in China, it would appear. Maybe China banning Micron was a mistake...
SK Hynix Investigating Use of Its Chips in New Huawei Phone
Korean maker says it hasn’t worked with Huawei since sanctions
Mate 60 Pro handset uses Hynix memory and flash storage chips
No one except Apple knows when Apple will introduce it's own home grown 5G in products.
Qualcomm will know.
In a recent earnings call they stated that there would be no further material revenues from Huawei. Last week Huawei released its own 5G capable phone.
Expect the same to happen when it comes to losing Apple’s modem revenues.
In essence, Huawei is getting the fruits of the few SMIC DUV machines in China, to make a nominally 5nm SOC, that may sell in China something on the order of up to 40 million units, at great effort and expense, but will not, to put it charitably, be competitive with any leading Qualcomm SOC, and certainly not any A Series.
For that, the U.S., et al, will yet again tighten the screws on any incoming semiconductor, AI, or aerospace tech attempted to be exported from the West.
Should Apple have waited with the release of Apple Silicon because the GPU wasn’t quite there when compared to Nvidia? When Apple rolls with their in-house modem, it won’t be quite as good as the Qualcomm modem but, they don’t necessarily need it to be at first and neither does Huawei.
In time Apple will reach parity, for example with the Nvidia, GPUs probably by the M4, M5 SOC’s. For many of those things you mentioned you don’t need to be the best necessarily at the beginning it’s where you end up, for example, the South Korean car industry is a hell of a lot better than those pieces of crap that they made in the 1980s.
The question is, will the Chinese give up and the answer is probably not. And that is why the United States needs to worry about itself, and its infrastructure internally, don’t be Brexit Britain in the future, and sanctions will not work long term you’re just delaying things, and not for very long either.
That's all fine speculation, but the problem for China is that their population is rapidly aging, with a notable population decline. China has yet to create a consumer economy, and they have stopped investing in housing and infrastructure, because of overbuilding. China will have to internally fund that transition from Western Semiconductor technology to home grown. Having a limited production at a 5nm equivalent and a 50% yield using existing Western 14 nm fab technology is impressive, but not really scalable. Moving on from there will be expensive, difficult, and unlikely to ever catch up to the West, but sure, China will at some point fully control its semiconductor technology.
As for Apple's Silicon, which is designed for low power and efficiency, Apple hasn't yet been challenged in notebooks, phones, tablets or even some of its desktops (at similar TDP). Ultimately, Apple's competitors, will for the most part, be able to catch up with Apple Silicon, but likely not surpass it, again except at higher TDP.
As for the modem, Apple is in a position to take its time to deliver it, even if ultimately Qualcomm will still end up having a performance advantage, since Apple negotiated an expansive contract that covers them for almost all possible contingencies.
Absolute and utter nonsense. Sorry to be so blunt.
Less than 10% of the world's chipset output is on cutting edge nodes.
Almost all of it is on very mature, non-cutting edge nodes.
That, 'old' technology is really what makes the world go around. It definitely isn't the latest process nodes. There's no doubt that the latest nodes can make a lot of money in certain areas (phones are one of them) but even in phones, if we never got beyond 28nm the world would still be happy.
Even now. Right now. ASML sales of DUV lithography units VASTLY outnumber sales of EUV machines and that isn't going to change for years because that demand will remain.
As of November 2022, ASML's backlog of orders was around 600 DUV units and 100 EUV units.
The US will try to trip China up at every turn. It will bully allies. It will try to choke and kill companies but there is no way it's going to stop China catching up and probably surpassing the US far sooner than you predict.
Current US policy is actually pushing China to reach parity. It's a DIRECT result of foreign policy decisions.
Those same decisions are also starving its home semiconductor industry of revenues from its biggest customers, many of whom are Chinese.
The crazy thing is that analysts and industry players have always made this clear to the government.
It's just that the government doesn't want to listen so it's just a matter of watching things play out.
In a way it reminds me of Brexit. People will only realise what's happening when it's too late.
ASML isn't selling DUV machines into China anymore, but I'd surmise the India has a better opportunity of gaining Western semiconductor technology, than China will ever again. Meanwhile, the U.S. economy is one of the strongest in the world, and China's economy is slowing down, so I'm not one to worry about Qualcomm losses from Huawei internally sourcing semiconductors.
China is now not likely to ever surpass the U.S. in GDP, and that's on Xi, not on the U.S., because the kind of government has consequences, and for a guy that says that governments are "irrelevant" and then notes the failure of Brexit, you don't seem to be grounded in reality.
Meanwhile, Huawei has been caught sourcing SK Hynix memory, so not so fully sourced in China, it would appear. Maybe China banning Micron was a mistake...
SK Hynix Investigating Use of Its Chips in New Huawei Phone
Korean maker says it hasn’t worked with Huawei since sanctions
Mate 60 Pro handset uses Hynix memory and flash storage chips
US semi conductor interests have been permanently and severely harmed. There is no getting away from that. Like Brexit, it is also self harm.
As a result, China will reach parity with the US in semicoductor terms. There is no getting away from that. The only question is when and I can absolutely guarantee it will be sooner than you have projected.
Size of economy (who is bigger than who) is an absurd and totally pointless comparison when you are talking about two giant economies, but, as you know, if you want to compare PPP GDP, China surpassed the US in 2017. It's irrelevant here. Why throw it in?
And finally, Huawei hasn't been 'caught' doing anything. Do you really think they used that memory thinking no one would see it? LOL.
No one except Apple knows when Apple will introduce it's own home grown 5G in products.
Qualcomm will know.
In a recent earnings call they stated that there would be no further material revenues from Huawei. Last week Huawei released its own 5G capable phone.
Expect the same to happen when it comes to losing Apple’s modem revenues.
In essence, Huawei is getting the fruits of the few SMIC DUV machines in China, to make a nominally 5nm SOC, that may sell in China something on the order of up to 40 million units, at great effort and expense, but will not, to put it charitably, be competitive with any leading Qualcomm SOC, and certainly not any A Series.
For that, the U.S., et al, will yet again tighten the screws on any incoming semiconductor, AI, or aerospace tech attempted to be exported from the West.
Should Apple have waited with the release of Apple Silicon because the GPU wasn’t quite there when compared to Nvidia? When Apple rolls with their in-house modem, it won’t be quite as good as the Qualcomm modem but, they don’t necessarily need it to be at first and neither does Huawei.
In time Apple will reach parity, for example with the Nvidia, GPUs probably by the M4, M5 SOC’s. For many of those things you mentioned you don’t need to be the best necessarily at the beginning it’s where you end up, for example, the South Korean car industry is a hell of a lot better than those pieces of crap that they made in the 1980s.
The question is, will the Chinese give up and the answer is probably not. And that is why the United States needs to worry about itself, and its infrastructure internally, don’t be Brexit Britain in the future, and sanctions will not work long term you’re just delaying things, and not for very long either.
That's all fine speculation, but the problem for China is that their population is rapidly aging, with a notable population decline. China has yet to create a consumer economy, and they have stopped investing in housing and infrastructure, because of overbuilding. China will have to internally fund that transition from Western Semiconductor technology to home grown. Having a limited production at a 5nm equivalent and a 50% yield using existing Western 14 nm fab technology is impressive, but not really scalable. Moving on from there will be expensive, difficult, and unlikely to ever catch up to the West, but sure, China will at some point fully control its semiconductor technology.
As for Apple's Silicon, which is designed for low power and efficiency, Apple hasn't yet been challenged in notebooks, phones, tablets or even some of its desktops (at similar TDP). Ultimately, Apple's competitors, will for the most part, be able to catch up with Apple Silicon, but likely not surpass it, again except at higher TDP.
As for the modem, Apple is in a position to take its time to deliver it, even if ultimately Qualcomm will still end up having a performance advantage, since Apple negotiated an expansive contract that covers them for almost all possible contingencies.
Absolute and utter nonsense. Sorry to be so blunt.
Less than 10% of the world's chipset output is on cutting edge nodes.
Almost all of it is on very mature, non-cutting edge nodes.
That, 'old' technology is really what makes the world go around. It definitely isn't the latest process nodes. There's no doubt that the latest nodes can make a lot of money in certain areas (phones are one of them) but even in phones, if we never got beyond 28nm the world would still be happy.
Even now. Right now. ASML sales of DUV lithography units VASTLY outnumber sales of EUV machines and that isn't going to change for years because that demand will remain.
As of November 2022, ASML's backlog of orders was around 600 DUV units and 100 EUV units.
The US will try to trip China up at every turn. It will bully allies. It will try to choke and kill companies but there is no way it's going to stop China catching up and probably surpassing the US far sooner than you predict.
Current US policy is actually pushing China to reach parity. It's a DIRECT result of foreign policy decisions.
Those same decisions are also starving its home semiconductor industry of revenues from its biggest customers, many of whom are Chinese.
The crazy thing is that analysts and industry players have always made this clear to the government.
It's just that the government doesn't want to listen so it's just a matter of watching things play out.
In a way it reminds me of Brexit. People will only realise what's happening when it's too late.
ASML isn't selling DUV machines into China anymore, but I'd surmise the India has a better opportunity of gaining Western semiconductor technology, than China will ever again. Meanwhile, the U.S. economy is one of the strongest in the world, and China's economy is slowing down, so I'm not one to worry about Qualcomm losses from Huawei internally sourcing semiconductors.
China is now not likely to ever surpass the U.S. in GDP, and that's on Xi, not on the U.S., because the kind of government has consequences, and for a guy that says that governments are "irrelevant" and then notes the failure of Brexit, you don't seem to be grounded in reality.
Meanwhile, Huawei has been caught sourcing SK Hynix memory, so not so fully sourced in China, it would appear. Maybe China banning Micron was a mistake...
SK Hynix Investigating Use of Its Chips in New Huawei Phone
Korean maker says it hasn’t worked with Huawei since sanctions
Mate 60 Pro handset uses Hynix memory and flash storage chips
US semi conductor interests have been permanently and severely harmed. There is no getting away from that. Like Brexit, it is also self harm.
As a result, China will reach parity with the US in semicoductor terms. There is no getting away from that. The only question is when and I can absolutely guarantee it will be sooner than you have projected.
Size of economy (who is bigger than who) is an absurd and totally pointless comparison when you are talking about two giant economies, but, as you know, if you want to compare PPP GDP, China surpassed the US in 2017. It's irrelevant here. Why throw it in?
And finally, Huawei hasn't been 'caught' doing anything. Do you really think they used that memory thinking no one would see it? LOL.
No one except Apple knows when Apple will introduce it's own home grown 5G in products.
Qualcomm will know.
In a recent earnings call they stated that there would be no further material revenues from Huawei. Last week Huawei released its own 5G capable phone.
Expect the same to happen when it comes to losing Apple’s modem revenues.
In essence, Huawei is getting the fruits of the few SMIC DUV machines in China, to make a nominally 5nm SOC, that may sell in China something on the order of up to 40 million units, at great effort and expense, but will not, to put it charitably, be competitive with any leading Qualcomm SOC, and certainly not any A Series.
For that, the U.S., et al, will yet again tighten the screws on any incoming semiconductor, AI, or aerospace tech attempted to be exported from the West.
Should Apple have waited with the release of Apple Silicon because the GPU wasn’t quite there when compared to Nvidia? When Apple rolls with their in-house modem, it won’t be quite as good as the Qualcomm modem but, they don’t necessarily need it to be at first and neither does Huawei.
In time Apple will reach parity, for example with the Nvidia, GPUs probably by the M4, M5 SOC’s. For many of those things you mentioned you don’t need to be the best necessarily at the beginning it’s where you end up, for example, the South Korean car industry is a hell of a lot better than those pieces of crap that they made in the 1980s.
The question is, will the Chinese give up and the answer is probably not. And that is why the United States needs to worry about itself, and its infrastructure internally, don’t be Brexit Britain in the future, and sanctions will not work long term you’re just delaying things, and not for very long either.
That's all fine speculation, but the problem for China is that their population is rapidly aging, with a notable population decline. China has yet to create a consumer economy, and they have stopped investing in housing and infrastructure, because of overbuilding. China will have to internally fund that transition from Western Semiconductor technology to home grown. Having a limited production at a 5nm equivalent and a 50% yield using existing Western 14 nm fab technology is impressive, but not really scalable. Moving on from there will be expensive, difficult, and unlikely to ever catch up to the West, but sure, China will at some point fully control its semiconductor technology.
As for Apple's Silicon, which is designed for low power and efficiency, Apple hasn't yet been challenged in notebooks, phones, tablets or even some of its desktops (at similar TDP). Ultimately, Apple's competitors, will for the most part, be able to catch up with Apple Silicon, but likely not surpass it, again except at higher TDP.
As for the modem, Apple is in a position to take its time to deliver it, even if ultimately Qualcomm will still end up having a performance advantage, since Apple negotiated an expansive contract that covers them for almost all possible contingencies.
Absolute and utter nonsense. Sorry to be so blunt.
Less than 10% of the world's chipset output is on cutting edge nodes.
Almost all of it is on very mature, non-cutting edge nodes.
That, 'old' technology is really what makes the world go around. It definitely isn't the latest process nodes. There's no doubt that the latest nodes can make a lot of money in certain areas (phones are one of them) but even in phones, if we never got beyond 28nm the world would still be happy.
Even now. Right now. ASML sales of DUV lithography units VASTLY outnumber sales of EUV machines and that isn't going to change for years because that demand will remain.
As of November 2022, ASML's backlog of orders was around 600 DUV units and 100 EUV units.
The US will try to trip China up at every turn. It will bully allies. It will try to choke and kill companies but there is no way it's going to stop China catching up and probably surpassing the US far sooner than you predict.
Current US policy is actually pushing China to reach parity. It's a DIRECT result of foreign policy decisions.
Those same decisions are also starving its home semiconductor industry of revenues from its biggest customers, many of whom are Chinese.
The crazy thing is that analysts and industry players have always made this clear to the government.
It's just that the government doesn't want to listen so it's just a matter of watching things play out.
In a way it reminds me of Brexit. People will only realise what's happening when it's too late.
ASML isn't selling DUV machines into China anymore, but I'd surmise the India has a better opportunity of gaining Western semiconductor technology, than China will ever again. Meanwhile, the U.S. economy is one of the strongest in the world, and China's economy is slowing down, so I'm not one to worry about Qualcomm losses from Huawei internally sourcing semiconductors.
China is now not likely to ever surpass the U.S. in GDP, and that's on Xi, not on the U.S., because the kind of government has consequences, and for a guy that says that governments are "irrelevant" and then notes the failure of Brexit, you don't seem to be grounded in reality.
Meanwhile, Huawei has been caught sourcing SK Hynix memory, so not so fully sourced in China, it would appear. Maybe China banning Micron was a mistake...
SK Hynix Investigating Use of Its Chips in New Huawei Phone
Korean maker says it hasn’t worked with Huawei since sanctions
Mate 60 Pro handset uses Hynix memory and flash storage chips
US semi conductor interests have been permanently and severely harmed. There is no getting away from that. Like Brexit, it is also self harm.
As a result, China will reach parity with the US in semicoductor terms. There is no getting away from that. The only question is when and I can absolutely guarantee it will be sooner than you have projected.
Size of economy (who is bigger than who) is an absurd and totally pointless comparison when you are talking about two giant economies, but, as you know, if you want to compare PPP GDP, China surpassed the US in 2017. It's irrelevant here. Why throw it in?
And finally, Huawei hasn't been 'caught' doing anything. Do you really think they used that memory thinking no one would see it? LOL.
China is on the way down.
That's a fact, Jack!
One country focuses on the long term, the other is as short term in their thinking as they can get who might that be? Who will win long term or short term?
No one except Apple knows when Apple will introduce it's own home grown 5G in products.
Qualcomm will know.
In a recent earnings call they stated that there would be no further material revenues from Huawei. Last week Huawei released its own 5G capable phone.
Expect the same to happen when it comes to losing Apple’s modem revenues.
In essence, Huawei is getting the fruits of the few SMIC DUV machines in China, to make a nominally 5nm SOC, that may sell in China something on the order of up to 40 million units, at great effort and expense, but will not, to put it charitably, be competitive with any leading Qualcomm SOC, and certainly not any A Series.
For that, the U.S., et al, will yet again tighten the screws on any incoming semiconductor, AI, or aerospace tech attempted to be exported from the West.
Should Apple have waited with the release of Apple Silicon because the GPU wasn’t quite there when compared to Nvidia? When Apple rolls with their in-house modem, it won’t be quite as good as the Qualcomm modem but, they don’t necessarily need it to be at first and neither does Huawei.
In time Apple will reach parity, for example with the Nvidia, GPUs probably by the M4, M5 SOC’s. For many of those things you mentioned you don’t need to be the best necessarily at the beginning it’s where you end up, for example, the South Korean car industry is a hell of a lot better than those pieces of crap that they made in the 1980s.
The question is, will the Chinese give up and the answer is probably not. And that is why the United States needs to worry about itself, and its infrastructure internally, don’t be Brexit Britain in the future, and sanctions will not work long term you’re just delaying things, and not for very long either.
That's all fine speculation, but the problem for China is that their population is rapidly aging, with a notable population decline. China has yet to create a consumer economy, and they have stopped investing in housing and infrastructure, because of overbuilding. China will have to internally fund that transition from Western Semiconductor technology to home grown. Having a limited production at a 5nm equivalent and a 50% yield using existing Western 14 nm fab technology is impressive, but not really scalable. Moving on from there will be expensive, difficult, and unlikely to ever catch up to the West, but sure, China will at some point fully control its semiconductor technology.
As for Apple's Silicon, which is designed for low power and efficiency, Apple hasn't yet been challenged in notebooks, phones, tablets or even some of its desktops (at similar TDP). Ultimately, Apple's competitors, will for the most part, be able to catch up with Apple Silicon, but likely not surpass it, again except at higher TDP.
As for the modem, Apple is in a position to take its time to deliver it, even if ultimately Qualcomm will still end up having a performance advantage, since Apple negotiated an expansive contract that covers them for almost all possible contingencies.
Absolute and utter nonsense. Sorry to be so blunt.
Less than 10% of the world's chipset output is on cutting edge nodes.
Almost all of it is on very mature, non-cutting edge nodes.
That, 'old' technology is really what makes the world go around. It definitely isn't the latest process nodes. There's no doubt that the latest nodes can make a lot of money in certain areas (phones are one of them) but even in phones, if we never got beyond 28nm the world would still be happy.
Even now. Right now. ASML sales of DUV lithography units VASTLY outnumber sales of EUV machines and that isn't going to change for years because that demand will remain.
As of November 2022, ASML's backlog of orders was around 600 DUV units and 100 EUV units.
The US will try to trip China up at every turn. It will bully allies. It will try to choke and kill companies but there is no way it's going to stop China catching up and probably surpassing the US far sooner than you predict.
Current US policy is actually pushing China to reach parity. It's a DIRECT result of foreign policy decisions.
Those same decisions are also starving its home semiconductor industry of revenues from its biggest customers, many of whom are Chinese.
The crazy thing is that analysts and industry players have always made this clear to the government.
It's just that the government doesn't want to listen so it's just a matter of watching things play out.
In a way it reminds me of Brexit. People will only realise what's happening when it's too late.
ASML isn't selling DUV machines into China anymore, but I'd surmise the India has a better opportunity of gaining Western semiconductor technology, than China will ever again. Meanwhile, the U.S. economy is one of the strongest in the world, and China's economy is slowing down, so I'm not one to worry about Qualcomm losses from Huawei internally sourcing semiconductors.
China is now not likely to ever surpass the U.S. in GDP, and that's on Xi, not on the U.S., because the kind of government has consequences, and for a guy that says that governments are "irrelevant" and then notes the failure of Brexit, you don't seem to be grounded in reality.
Meanwhile, Huawei has been caught sourcing SK Hynix memory, so not so fully sourced in China, it would appear. Maybe China banning Micron was a mistake...
SK Hynix Investigating Use of Its Chips in New Huawei Phone
Korean maker says it hasn’t worked with Huawei since sanctions
Mate 60 Pro handset uses Hynix memory and flash storage chips
US semi conductor interests have been permanently and severely harmed. There is no getting away from that. Like Brexit, it is also self harm.
As a result, China will reach parity with the US in semicoductor terms. There is no getting away from that. The only question is when and I can absolutely guarantee it will be sooner than you have projected.
Size of economy (who is bigger than who) is an absurd and totally pointless comparison when you are talking about two giant economies, but, as you know, if you want to compare PPP GDP, China surpassed the US in 2017. It's irrelevant here. Why throw it in?
And finally, Huawei hasn't been 'caught' doing anything. Do you really think they used that memory thinking no one would see it? LOL.
China is on the way down.
That's a fact, Jack!
One country focuses on the long term, the other is as short term in their thinking as they can get who might that be? Who will win long term or short term?
Actually, all of this plays into India as being the long term replacement for China, with much better demographics going forward.
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As for Apple's Silicon, which is designed for low power and efficiency, Apple hasn't yet been challenged in notebooks, phones, tablets or even some of its desktops (at similar TDP). Ultimately, Apple's competitors, will for the most part, be able to catch up with Apple Silicon, but likely not surpass it, again except at higher TDP.
As for the modem, Apple is in a position to take its time to deliver it, even if ultimately Qualcomm will still end up having a performance advantage, since Apple negotiated an expansive contract that covers them for almost all possible contingencies.
It's also worth remembering that Apple has engineers within Qualcomm who are working closely on every Apple product that is in the pipeline and requires QC IP.
The same probably applies to the carriers too. I know for a fact that before the US government killed the deal between Huawei and AT&T, both companies spent a year tuning the modem on the Kirin970 to AT&T infrastructure.
Less than 10% of the world's chipset output is on cutting edge nodes.
Almost all of it is on very mature, non-cutting edge nodes.
That, 'old' technology is really what makes the world go around. It definitely isn't the latest process nodes. There's no doubt that the latest nodes can make a lot of money in certain areas (phones are one of them) but even in phones, if we never got beyond 28nm the world would still be happy.
Even now. Right now. ASML sales of DUV lithography units VASTLY outnumber sales of EUV machines and that isn't going to change for years because that demand will remain.
As of November 2022, ASML's backlog of orders was around 600 DUV units and 100 EUV units.
The US will try to trip China up at every turn. It will bully allies. It will try to choke and kill companies but there is no way it's going to stop China catching up and probably surpassing the US far sooner than you predict.
Current US policy is actually pushing China to reach parity. It's a DIRECT result of foreign policy decisions.
Those same decisions are also starving its home semiconductor industry of revenues from its biggest customers, many of whom are Chinese.
The crazy thing is that analysts and industry players have always made this clear to the government.
It's just that the government doesn't want to listen so it's just a matter of watching things play out.
In a way it reminds me of Brexit. People will only realise what's happening when it's too late.
China is now not likely to ever surpass the U.S. in GDP, and that's on Xi, not on the U.S., because the kind of government has consequences, and for a guy that says that governments are "irrelevant" and then notes the failure of Brexit, you don't seem to be grounded in reality.
Meanwhile, Huawei has been caught sourcing SK Hynix memory, so not so fully sourced in China, it would appear. Maybe China banning Micron was a mistake...
As a result, China will reach parity with the US in semicoductor terms. There is no getting away from that. The only question is when and I can absolutely guarantee it will be sooner than you have projected.
Size of economy (who is bigger than who) is an absurd and totally pointless comparison when you are talking about two giant economies, but, as you know, if you want to compare PPP GDP, China surpassed the US in 2017. It's irrelevant here. Why throw it in?
And finally, Huawei hasn't been 'caught' doing anything. Do you really think they used that memory thinking no one would see it? LOL.
That's a fact, Jack!