iPhone 15 exceeding sales expectations in China with many retailers selling out in minutes...

AppleInsider

The iPhone 15 has gained significant attention and demand in China, exceeding initial expectations and countering previous predictions of potential challenges for the company due to increased competition from Huawei and government restrictions on iPhone usage.

iPhone 15 Pro lineup

Shortly after the launch of the iPhone 15, Apple's official website in mainland China experienced technical difficulties due to the high traffic volume. This led to increased purchasing activity across various sales channels throughout the region.

The iPhone 15 series has generated remarkable pre-order activity on e-commerce sites like Alibaba's Tmall and JD.com. According to SCMP, the initial batch of iPhone 15 Pro and iPhone 15 Pro Max units up for pre-order on Tmall was sold out in less than 60 seconds after preorders began. Tmall officials had to restock nine times in under half an hour, with the iPhone 15 Pro Max being the most popular choice.

JD.com saw its customers place over 3 million pre-orders for all four models of the iPhone 15 as of Monday. The iPhone 15 dominated the premium smartphone category on JD.com, outpacing its competitors.

Additionally, on-demand service platforms like Meituan and Ele.me now offer the iPhone 15 alongside more traditional online retailers. Meituan has teamed up with over 5,000 authorized Apple product retailers in the country and successfully sold 200 million yuan worth of iPhone 15 models in the initial 30 minutes of last Friday's presales session.

Similarly, Ele.me has partnered with over 3,000 Apple retailers and assured customers of delivering new iPhones within 30 minutes after they are officially shipped on September 22.

The iPhone 15 lineup consists of four models starting at 5,999 yuan for the base iPhone 15 model. The premium iPhone 15 Pro and iPhone 15 Pro Max models are priced between 7,999 and 13,999 yuan and feature Apple's A17 Pro, the industry's first 3-nanometer chip.

In contrast, Huawei's Mate 60 Pro, which uses a made-in-China chip with 7-nanometer technology, is priced at 6,999 yuan.

Despite these successes, Apple is navigating a partial ban on government usage in China. While China's foreign ministry denies any government law or regulation banning iPhone use, several government agencies have issued notices instructing their employees not to use iPhones within government buildings.

According to Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, demand for the high-end iPhone 15 Pro Max is strong, while demand for the standard iPhone 15 models is consistent with last year's numbers.

Read on AppleInsider

tmay

Is Huawei actually competitive in China with iPhone 15 models?

Benchmarks for the Mate 60 come in kind of like an iPhone XR, which is late 2018, though in fairness, the Mate 60 has a long feature list, topped off with an option for satellite voice com, though I doubt that will actually be a big seller.

It's safe to state that Huawei is more likely to take share away from Chinese OEM's than Apple.

king editor the grate

13,999 yuan makes me feel better about 1,486.44.

Afarstar

BOOM. Useless analists predicting doom and gloom for the new models have been proved wrong - AGAIN. They will never understand Apple. 

avon b7

tmay said:

Is Huawei actually competitive in China with iPhone 15 models?

Benchmarks for the Mate 60 come in kind of like an iPhone XR, which is late 2018, though in fairness, the Mate 60 has a long feature list, topped off with an option for satellite voice com, though I doubt that will actually be a big seller.

It's safe to state that Huawei is more likely to take share away from Chinese OEM's than Apple.

Every Mate 60 Pro purchase has the potential to take share away from Apple, especially those who had switched from Huawei over the last few years. 

Every Mate X3 and X5 also has potential to take share away from Apple, simply because Apple is not offering a folding or flip option. 

There are no 'safe bets' though, just lots of rumours. Apple has pent up demand which is normal for its sole, pre-Christmas phone releases. 

Huawei has returned to its pre-sanctions release cycle which means at least two flagship series per year (and possibly four). 

The Mate series is the business series and the P series is the photography series. 

There is yet another launch event on the 25th of September and rumours of an RS phone to complete the late 2023 phone launches. 

Unless China sales pick up in general, it's clear Huawei will be clawing back share from all flagship vendors and that includes Apple. 

Just how much is the question. 

Rumours have claimed Huawei has massively increased its original projections. There is no way to know for sure. 

Competitiveness isn't only a question of processor performance. That has been clear for years, so while it will be a factor for some, for others it won't. 

Yes, satellite voice calling is a new advance and Huawei has had to ask users not to use it on planes (aviation regulations) after people started posting videos of themselves on social media using satellite voice calling while in flight. It's been getting a lot of attention but isn't the only new feature. 

We won't know how things are playing out in terms of share until around Q2 next year, and a lot could happen (politically speaking) between now and then. Assuming there are no major changes to that side of things, the real show should begin around MWC2024. 

tmay

avon b7 said:

tmay said:

Is Huawei actually competitive in China with iPhone 15 models?

Benchmarks for the Mate 60 come in kind of like an iPhone XR, which is late 2018, though in fairness, the Mate 60 has a long feature list, topped off with an option for satellite voice com, though I doubt that will actually be a big seller.

It's safe to state that Huawei is more likely to take share away from Chinese OEM's than Apple.

Every Mate 60 Pro purchase has the potential to take share away from Apple, especially those who had switched from Huawei over the last few years. 

Every Mate X3 and X5 also has potential to take share away from Apple, simply because Apple is not offering a folding or flipping option. 

There are no 'safe bets' though just lots of rumours. Apple has pent up demand which is normal for its sole, pre-Christmas phone releases. 

Huawei has returned to its pre-sanctions release cycle which means at least two flagship series per year (and possibly four) . 

The Mate series is the business series and the P series is the photography series. 

There is yet another launch event on the 25th of September and rumours of an RS phone to complete the late 2023 phone launches. 

Unless China sales pick up in general, it's clear Huawei will be clawing back share from all flagship vendors and that includes Apple. 

Just how much is the question. 

Rumours have claim Huawei has massively increased its original projections. There is no way to know for sure. 

Competitiveness isn't only a question of processor performance. That has been clear for years so while it will be a factor for some, for others it won't. 

Yes, satellite voice calling is a new advance and Huawei has had to ask users not to use it on planes (aviation regulations) after people started posting videos of themselves on social media using satellite voice calling while in flight. It's been getting a lot of attention but isn't the only new feature. 

We won't know how things are playing out in terms of share until around Q2 next year, and a lot could happen (politically speaking) between now and then. Assuming there are no major changes to that side of things, the real show should begin around MWC2024. 

Politically speaking, the U.S. is going to close the loopholes that have allowed continued DUV sales thru the end of the year, which is technology behind the Kirin 9000S, so it will get more and more difficult, and expensive, for SMIC to evolve the Kirin.

I get that Chinese people want to support the home team, ie Huawei, but Huawei sure is taking a hit on SOC performance, hence why I don't think that Apple is going to be impacted by Huawei much, if at all.

waveparticle

tmay said:

avon b7 said:

tmay said:

Is Huawei actually competitive in China with iPhone 15 models?

Benchmarks for the Mate 60 come in kind of like an iPhone XR, which is late 2018, though in fairness, the Mate 60 has a long feature list, topped off with an option for satellite voice com, though I doubt that will actually be a big seller.

It's safe to state that Huawei is more likely to take share away from Chinese OEM's than Apple.

Every Mate 60 Pro purchase has the potential to take share away from Apple, especially those who had switched from Huawei over the last few years. 

Every Mate X3 and X5 also has potential to take share away from Apple, simply because Apple is not offering a folding or flipping option. 

There are no 'safe bets' though just lots of rumours. Apple has pent up demand which is normal for its sole, pre-Christmas phone releases. 

Huawei has returned to its pre-sanctions release cycle which means at least two flagship series per year (and possibly four) . 

The Mate series is the business series and the P series is the photography series. 

There is yet another launch event on the 25th of September and rumours of an RS phone to complete the late 2023 phone launches. 

Unless China sales pick up in general, it's clear Huawei will be clawing back share from all flagship vendors and that includes Apple. 

Just how much is the question. 

Rumours have claim Huawei has massively increased its original projections. There is no way to know for sure. 

Competitiveness isn't only a question of processor performance. That has been clear for years so while it will be a factor for some, for others it won't. 

Yes, satellite voice calling is a new advance and Huawei has had to ask users not to use it on planes (aviation regulations) after people started posting videos of themselves on social media using satellite voice calling while in flight. It's been getting a lot of attention but isn't the only new feature. 

We won't know how things are playing out in terms of share until around Q2 next year, and a lot could happen (politically speaking) between now and then. Assuming there are no major changes to that side of things, the real show should begin around MWC2024. 

Politically speaking, the U.S. is going to close the loopholes that have allowed continued DUV sales thru the end of the year, which is technology behind the Kirin 9000S, so it will get more and more difficult, and expensive, for SMIC to evolve the Kirin.

I get that Chinese people want to support the home team, ie Huawei, but Huawei sure is taking a hit on SOC performance, hence why I don't think that Apple is going to be impacted by Huawei much, if at all.

DUV is not made by US!

avon b7

tmay said:

avon b7 said:

tmay said:

Is Huawei actually competitive in China with iPhone 15 models?

Benchmarks for the Mate 60 come in kind of like an iPhone XR, which is late 2018, though in fairness, the Mate 60 has a long feature list, topped off with an option for satellite voice com, though I doubt that will actually be a big seller.

It's safe to state that Huawei is more likely to take share away from Chinese OEM's than Apple.

Every Mate 60 Pro purchase has the potential to take share away from Apple, especially those who had switched from Huawei over the last few years. 

Every Mate X3 and X5 also has potential to take share away from Apple, simply because Apple is not offering a folding or flipping option. 

There are no 'safe bets' though just lots of rumours. Apple has pent up demand which is normal for its sole, pre-Christmas phone releases. 

Huawei has returned to its pre-sanctions release cycle which means at least two flagship series per year (and possibly four) . 

The Mate series is the business series and the P series is the photography series. 

There is yet another launch event on the 25th of September and rumours of an RS phone to complete the late 2023 phone launches. 

Unless China sales pick up in general, it's clear Huawei will be clawing back share from all flagship vendors and that includes Apple. 

Just how much is the question. 

Rumours have claim Huawei has massively increased its original projections. There is no way to know for sure. 

Competitiveness isn't only a question of processor performance. That has been clear for years so while it will be a factor for some, for others it won't. 

Yes, satellite voice calling is a new advance and Huawei has had to ask users not to use it on planes (aviation regulations) after people started posting videos of themselves on social media using satellite voice calling while in flight. It's been getting a lot of attention but isn't the only new feature. 

We won't know how things are playing out in terms of share until around Q2 next year, and a lot could happen (politically speaking) between now and then. Assuming there are no major changes to that side of things, the real show should begin around MWC2024. 

Politically speaking, the U.S. is going to close the loopholes that have allowed continued DUV sales thru the end of the year, which is technology behind the Kirin 9000S, so it will get more and more difficult, and expensive, for SMIC to evolve the Kirin.

I get that Chinese people want to support the home team, ie Huawei, but Huawei sure is taking a hit on SOC performance, hence why I don't think that Apple is going to be impacted by Huawei much, if at all.

I think there are too many unknowns all over the place and that just leads to speculation. 

Much of it is iffy at best. The latest one is that a software a update has 'unlocked' four more cores on the Kirin 9000s. The GPU seems to be a bit of an unknown too.

Some of it is reasonable. Like the Kirin 9000s is destined for tablets, the Nova series and possibly even laptops. It is also reported to be in a car. Seeing as Qualcomm has already gone on record as saying there will be no more business from Huawei, I'd say yield is definitely not an issue here. Huawei wouldn't do that unless it thought demand can be met, and demand seems to be extremely strong at the moment. 

Once the initial blowout period is over for Apple, Huawei will have the P70 series and other flagships ready to drive momentum around MWC. 

Toughening of sanctions is a risk but it's hard to believe they haven't thought that through to its last consequences. 

I'd say they're confident with their current options and very optimistic about going forward in terms of self suffiency. That should impact Apple at some point. 

And as if by magic, just today, there has been a lot of talk about Chinese EUV advances for a lithographic cannon using an entire lithographic factory instead of a machine and with far higher power output. 

There is even talk about the factory actually being under construction for test purposes. 

Again, though, some real science in all that but with a huge sprinkling of speculation. 

Either way, Huawei definitely thinks it can output virtually 100% Non-US sourced phones. They are very much back on Apple's radar as a competitor gaining momentum. 

tmay

waveparticle said:

tmay said:

avon b7 said:

tmay said:

Is Huawei actually competitive in China with iPhone 15 models?

Benchmarks for the Mate 60 come in kind of like an iPhone XR, which is late 2018, though in fairness, the Mate 60 has a long feature list, topped off with an option for satellite voice com, though I doubt that will actually be a big seller.

It's safe to state that Huawei is more likely to take share away from Chinese OEM's than Apple.

Every Mate 60 Pro purchase has the potential to take share away from Apple, especially those who had switched from Huawei over the last few years. 

Every Mate X3 and X5 also has potential to take share away from Apple, simply because Apple is not offering a folding or flipping option. 

There are no 'safe bets' though just lots of rumours. Apple has pent up demand which is normal for its sole, pre-Christmas phone releases. 

Huawei has returned to its pre-sanctions release cycle which means at least two flagship series per year (and possibly four) . 

The Mate series is the business series and the P series is the photography series. 

There is yet another launch event on the 25th of September and rumours of an RS phone to complete the late 2023 phone launches. 

Unless China sales pick up in general, it's clear Huawei will be clawing back share from all flagship vendors and that includes Apple. 

Just how much is the question. 

Rumours have claim Huawei has massively increased its original projections. There is no way to know for sure. 

Competitiveness isn't only a question of processor performance. That has been clear for years so while it will be a factor for some, for others it won't. 

Yes, satellite voice calling is a new advance and Huawei has had to ask users not to use it on planes (aviation regulations) after people started posting videos of themselves on social media using satellite voice calling while in flight. It's been getting a lot of attention but isn't the only new feature. 

We won't know how things are playing out in terms of share until around Q2 next year, and a lot could happen (politically speaking) between now and then. Assuming there are no major changes to that side of things, the real show should begin around MWC2024. 

Politically speaking, the U.S. is going to close the loopholes that have allowed continued DUV sales thru the end of the year, which is technology behind the Kirin 9000S, so it will get more and more difficult, and expensive, for SMIC to evolve the Kirin.

I get that Chinese people want to support the home team, ie Huawei, but Huawei sure is taking a hit on SOC performance, hence why I don't think that Apple is going to be impacted by Huawei much, if at all.

DUV is not made by US!

Substantial amount of IP in DUV and EUV machines, more than 25%.

tmay

avon b7 said:

tmay said:

avon b7 said:

tmay said:

Is Huawei actually competitive in China with iPhone 15 models?

Benchmarks for the Mate 60 come in kind of like an iPhone XR, which is late 2018, though in fairness, the Mate 60 has a long feature list, topped off with an option for satellite voice com, though I doubt that will actually be a big seller.

It's safe to state that Huawei is more likely to take share away from Chinese OEM's than Apple.

Every Mate 60 Pro purchase has the potential to take share away from Apple, especially those who had switched from Huawei over the last few years. 

Every Mate X3 and X5 also has potential to take share away from Apple, simply because Apple is not offering a folding or flipping option. 

There are no 'safe bets' though just lots of rumours. Apple has pent up demand which is normal for its sole, pre-Christmas phone releases. 

Huawei has returned to its pre-sanctions release cycle which means at least two flagship series per year (and possibly four) . 

The Mate series is the business series and the P series is the photography series. 

There is yet another launch event on the 25th of September and rumours of an RS phone to complete the late 2023 phone launches. 

Unless China sales pick up in general, it's clear Huawei will be clawing back share from all flagship vendors and that includes Apple. 

Just how much is the question. 

Rumours have claim Huawei has massively increased its original projections. There is no way to know for sure. 

Competitiveness isn't only a question of processor performance. That has been clear for years so while it will be a factor for some, for others it won't. 

Yes, satellite voice calling is a new advance and Huawei has had to ask users not to use it on planes (aviation regulations) after people started posting videos of themselves on social media using satellite voice calling while in flight. It's been getting a lot of attention but isn't the only new feature. 

We won't know how things are playing out in terms of share until around Q2 next year, and a lot could happen (politically speaking) between now and then. Assuming there are no major changes to that side of things, the real show should begin around MWC2024. 

Politically speaking, the U.S. is going to close the loopholes that have allowed continued DUV sales thru the end of the year, which is technology behind the Kirin 9000S, so it will get more and more difficult, and expensive, for SMIC to evolve the Kirin.

I get that Chinese people want to support the home team, ie Huawei, but Huawei sure is taking a hit on SOC performance, hence why I don't think that Apple is going to be impacted by Huawei much, if at all.

I think there are too many unknowns all over the place and that just leads to speculation. 

Much of it is iffy at best. The latest one is that a software a update has 'unlocked' four more cores on the Kirin 9000s. The GPU seems to be a bit of an unknown too.

Some of it is reasonable. Like the Kirin 9000s is destined for tablets, the Nova series and possibly even laptops. It is also reported to be in a car. Seeing as Qualcomm has already gone on record as saying there will be no more business from Huawei, I'd say yield is definitely not an issue here. Huawei wouldn't do that unless it thought demand can be met, and demand seems to be extremely strong at the moment. 

Once the initial blowout period is over for Apple, Huawei will have the P70 series and other flagships ready to drive momentum around MWC. 

Toughening of sanctions is a risk but it's hard to believe they haven't thought that through to its last consequences. 

I'd say they're confident with their current options and very optimistic about going forward in terms of self suffiency. That should impact Apple at some point. 

And as if by magic, just today, there has been a lot of talk about Chinese EUV advances for a lithographic cannon using an entire lithographic factory instead of a machine and with far higher power output. 

There is even talk about the factory actually being under construction for test purposes. 

Again, though, some real science in all that but with a huge sprinkling of speculation. 

Either way, Huawei definitely thinks it can output virtually 100% Non-US sourced phones. They are very much back on Apple's radar as a competitor gaining momentum. 

I don't doubt that they can output 100% non-U.S. sourced phones, but it's already apparent that Huawei used Hynix memory, and you seem to discount the relatively "vintage" performance of the Kirin 9000S. There isn't any question that more cores mean higher performance, but it also consumes more power, which for a phone, is a negative.

waveparticle

tmay said:

waveparticle said:

tmay said:

avon b7 said:

tmay said:

Is Huawei actually competitive in China with iPhone 15 models?

Benchmarks for the Mate 60 come in kind of like an iPhone XR, which is late 2018, though in fairness, the Mate 60 has a long feature list, topped off with an option for satellite voice com, though I doubt that will actually be a big seller.

It's safe to state that Huawei is more likely to take share away from Chinese OEM's than Apple.

Every Mate 60 Pro purchase has the potential to take share away from Apple, especially those who had switched from Huawei over the last few years. 

Every Mate X3 and X5 also has potential to take share away from Apple, simply because Apple is not offering a folding or flipping option. 

There are no 'safe bets' though just lots of rumours. Apple has pent up demand which is normal for its sole, pre-Christmas phone releases. 

Huawei has returned to its pre-sanctions release cycle which means at least two flagship series per year (and possibly four) . 

The Mate series is the business series and the P series is the photography series. 

There is yet another launch event on the 25th of September and rumours of an RS phone to complete the late 2023 phone launches. 

Unless China sales pick up in general, it's clear Huawei will be clawing back share from all flagship vendors and that includes Apple. 

Just how much is the question. 

Rumours have claim Huawei has massively increased its original projections. There is no way to know for sure. 

Competitiveness isn't only a question of processor performance. That has been clear for years so while it will be a factor for some, for others it won't. 

Yes, satellite voice calling is a new advance and Huawei has had to ask users not to use it on planes (aviation regulations) after people started posting videos of themselves on social media using satellite voice calling while in flight. It's been getting a lot of attention but isn't the only new feature. 

We won't know how things are playing out in terms of share until around Q2 next year, and a lot could happen (politically speaking) between now and then. Assuming there are no major changes to that side of things, the real show should begin around MWC2024. 

Politically speaking, the U.S. is going to close the loopholes that have allowed continued DUV sales thru the end of the year, which is technology behind the Kirin 9000S, so it will get more and more difficult, and expensive, for SMIC to evolve the Kirin.

I get that Chinese people want to support the home team, ie Huawei, but Huawei sure is taking a hit on SOC performance, hence why I don't think that Apple is going to be impacted by Huawei much, if at all.

DUV is not made by US!

Substantial amount of IP in DUV and EUV machines, more than 25%.

You cannot imply 25% of the DUV price is paid to the US IP! And owning IP in some device does not give you the right to deny other people using the device!

FileMakerFeller

waveparticle said:

tmay said:

waveparticle said:

tmay said:

avon b7 said:

tmay said:

Is Huawei actually competitive in China with iPhone 15 models?

Benchmarks for the Mate 60 come in kind of like an iPhone XR, which is late 2018, though in fairness, the Mate 60 has a long feature list, topped off with an option for satellite voice com, though I doubt that will actually be a big seller.

It's safe to state that Huawei is more likely to take share away from Chinese OEM's than Apple.

Every Mate 60 Pro purchase has the potential to take share away from Apple, especially those who had switched from Huawei over the last few years. 

Every Mate X3 and X5 also has potential to take share away from Apple, simply because Apple is not offering a folding or flipping option. 

There are no 'safe bets' though just lots of rumours. Apple has pent up demand which is normal for its sole, pre-Christmas phone releases. 

Huawei has returned to its pre-sanctions release cycle which means at least two flagship series per year (and possibly four) . 

The Mate series is the business series and the P series is the photography series. 

There is yet another launch event on the 25th of September and rumours of an RS phone to complete the late 2023 phone launches. 

Unless China sales pick up in general, it's clear Huawei will be clawing back share from all flagship vendors and that includes Apple. 

Just how much is the question. 

Rumours have claim Huawei has massively increased its original projections. There is no way to know for sure. 

Competitiveness isn't only a question of processor performance. That has been clear for years so while it will be a factor for some, for others it won't. 

Yes, satellite voice calling is a new advance and Huawei has had to ask users not to use it on planes (aviation regulations) after people started posting videos of themselves on social media using satellite voice calling while in flight. It's been getting a lot of attention but isn't the only new feature. 

We won't know how things are playing out in terms of share until around Q2 next year, and a lot could happen (politically speaking) between now and then. Assuming there are no major changes to that side of things, the real show should begin around MWC2024. 

Politically speaking, the U.S. is going to close the loopholes that have allowed continued DUV sales thru the end of the year, which is technology behind the Kirin 9000S, so it will get more and more difficult, and expensive, for SMIC to evolve the Kirin.

I get that Chinese people want to support the home team, ie Huawei, but Huawei sure is taking a hit on SOC performance, hence why I don't think that Apple is going to be impacted by Huawei much, if at all.

DUV is not made by US!

Substantial amount of IP in DUV and EUV machines, more than 25%.

You cannot imply 25% of the DUV price is paid to the US IP! And owning IP in some device does not give you the right to deny other people using the device!

If the IP is owned by US companies and the US declares they can no longer export that technology then the licensing contracts will be voided and the IP will not be available. Commercial ramifications to this for sure and the US government will be on the hook for lost profits and potential retaliatory sanctions, but they will be able to block the sale of new equipment - at which point the black market and espionage come into play.

waveparticle

FileMakerFeller said:

waveparticle said:

tmay said:

waveparticle said:

tmay said:

avon b7 said:

tmay said:

Is Huawei actually competitive in China with iPhone 15 models?

Benchmarks for the Mate 60 come in kind of like an iPhone XR, which is late 2018, though in fairness, the Mate 60 has a long feature list, topped off with an option for satellite voice com, though I doubt that will actually be a big seller.

It's safe to state that Huawei is more likely to take share away from Chinese OEM's than Apple.

Every Mate 60 Pro purchase has the potential to take share away from Apple, especially those who had switched from Huawei over the last few years. 

Every Mate X3 and X5 also has potential to take share away from Apple, simply because Apple is not offering a folding or flipping option. 

There are no 'safe bets' though just lots of rumours. Apple has pent up demand which is normal for its sole, pre-Christmas phone releases. 

Huawei has returned to its pre-sanctions release cycle which means at least two flagship series per year (and possibly four) . 

The Mate series is the business series and the P series is the photography series. 

There is yet another launch event on the 25th of September and rumours of an RS phone to complete the late 2023 phone launches. 

Unless China sales pick up in general, it's clear Huawei will be clawing back share from all flagship vendors and that includes Apple. 

Just how much is the question. 

Rumours have claim Huawei has massively increased its original projections. There is no way to know for sure. 

Competitiveness isn't only a question of processor performance. That has been clear for years so while it will be a factor for some, for others it won't. 

Yes, satellite voice calling is a new advance and Huawei has had to ask users not to use it on planes (aviation regulations) after people started posting videos of themselves on social media using satellite voice calling while in flight. It's been getting a lot of attention but isn't the only new feature. 

We won't know how things are playing out in terms of share until around Q2 next year, and a lot could happen (politically speaking) between now and then. Assuming there are no major changes to that side of things, the real show should begin around MWC2024. 

Politically speaking, the U.S. is going to close the loopholes that have allowed continued DUV sales thru the end of the year, which is technology behind the Kirin 9000S, so it will get more and more difficult, and expensive, for SMIC to evolve the Kirin.

I get that Chinese people want to support the home team, ie Huawei, but Huawei sure is taking a hit on SOC performance, hence why I don't think that Apple is going to be impacted by Huawei much, if at all.

DUV is not made by US!

Substantial amount of IP in DUV and EUV machines, more than 25%.

You cannot imply 25% of the DUV price is paid to the US IP! And owning IP in some device does not give you the right to deny other people using the device!

If the IP is owned by US companies and the US declares they can no longer export that technology then the licensing contracts will be voided and the IP will not be available. Commercial ramifications to this for sure and the US government will be on the hook for lost profits and potential retaliatory sanctions, but they will be able to block the sale of new equipment - at which point the black market and espionage come into play.

This is your assumption and imagination. Did US declare it? I doubt it. So your explanation is voided. So until US declares it, US cannot deny the sale of EUV to China.