To the contrary of what some people claimed, it was never going to be easy. Not in software or in hardware.
5G is a huge collection of different standards and technologies falling under one general umbrella.
A few years ago you could have got away with NSA but now you have to support SA and advances for the immediate future (5.5G) and then be ready for 6G.
Realistically speaking Apple needed to be at the table where the standards themselves are thrashed out.
Without a seat at those tables you will always be playing catch up to a certain degree.
They acquired the Intel division plus accumulated patents. You could argue that got them onto the ladder. Climbing it is another story.
The odds of Apple producing a superior product to anything Huawei, Samsung, Qualcomm, Broadcom can produce are limited simply because those companies have decades of accumulated knowhow and resources.
Perhaps 'good enough' is where they are happy to be at the moment in terms of verticality in manufacturing. I think that's a valid aim but it won't free them of patent agreements.
Beyond the modem and antenna designs themselves, the whole thing was a result of a massive strategic goof. The spat with Qualcomm.
When the Intel plan collapsed it really was a Yikes! moment and although we don't know the details of the deal, it's hard to imagine Qualcomm not having the upper hand in negotiations.
It's funny, but I would use your exact same argument against Huawei/HiSilicon/SMIC, which are firmly anchored in pushing older Western tech to its limits, five years behind and attempting to break out. Who do you think is going to be more successful in their endeavors? Huawei/HiSilicon/SMIC or Apple?
And while some have lauded Huawei’s HiSilicon chip design business for beating Apple to the punch with the apparent development of its own 5G modem in China’s Mate 60 Pro, lab tests show that Huawei’s chips consume more power than competitors’ and cause the phone “to heat up” which is bad for performance.
So yeah, modems are hard.
Apple’s custom modem work continues, and Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman suggests we’ll likely see them gradually roll out before the current Qualcomm deal expires in 2026.
Qualcomm may have had the "upper hand" in negotiations, and has recently seen a reprieve, but it in fact Apple that was visionary enough to add long term options to the agreement, just in case. Should Apple deliver their own modem by 2026, or even later, it is due to Apple being able to generate enough revenue and profits to more than afford that considerable R&D effort.
You know, the same company that set the bar for smartphones some 16 years ago, which nobody saw coming.
First point: Huawei (and by a wide margin). Designing a modem and manufacturing the design are two different things and five years is a world away in technology.
Second point: if 'visionary' were even applicable, they would never have found themselves in this predicament in the first place. It was more a case of not having any more cards to play. To Qualcomm it just means one less competitor (and even that term is a stretch) and much more money.
Older western tech?
I hope you realise that NearLink devices are now shipping. LOL!
Apple was first to introduce UWD in a smartphone, and today, I expect every phone to have UWD of some type, but they don't because it isn't as cheap as BT.
Apparently, the secret of NearLink is to use a extremely wide spectrum, of the order of at least 400 MHz (a BT channel has 20 MHz, and a WiFi channel 20 (802.11 b) or 40 MHz.
I wouldn't be surprised of parallel data transfers.
This would be in line with the idea that Huawei wants a sort of "super device" where single devices can be added seamlessly in a modular fashion and sending data at high speeds.
Apple's UWB technology is similar, but proprietary and kept like a Draconian treasure. This led societies to instead release an update the Bluetooth LE, especially for wearables, to improve the data rate.
Of course, Huawei is able to introduce technology at 400 Mhz of bandwidth, in China that may not be allowed in the rest of the world.
You were going off about using 'older western tech' so I gave you the perfect example of the exact opposite. Of course, in a thread on 5G and Huawei being one of the major 5G players, trying to make the point you made was already flat on its face before you hit the 'post' button.
And when you say 'western' I suppose you are trying to squeeze TSMC in which is completely laughable.
On the subject of UWB, that is nothing new. It's been around for decades and Huawei has been using it for years now in industrial settings, so saying NearLink is UWB is saying nothing.
Like saying Apple was first to put UWB in a phone.
NearLink is a wireless implementation with over 300 companies on board. What counts here is what it does and how it does it. For example, it uses polar codes. As for cost, I'm not following you. How could Huawei put it in its newest earbuds if cost was an issue? Btw, those earbuds are taking advantage of NearLink to enable Huawei's latest HD audio codec.
Cost used to be a factor but if a pair of earbuds have it....
Taiwan is a democracy, hence why it is aligned with the West, ie, "Western", which is the EU, U.K., U.S., Canada, Australia, New Zealand, South Korea, and Japan, plus a number of smaller nations. It isn't about geography, nor does Taiwan belong to China due to geography.
As for UWB, All of the iPhones from 11 on, later watches, and of course, AirTags, have UWB, so, easily more than a billion devices.
You failed. Apple is so much a member that the organization is concerned about Apple throwing its weight around, and I did mention that Huawei's modem in the Mate 60 is noted for overheating the phone.
To the contrary of what some people claimed, it was never going to be easy. Not in software or in hardware.
5G is a huge collection of different standards and technologies falling under one general umbrella.
A few years ago you could have got away with NSA but now you have to support SA and advances for the immediate future (5.5G) and then be ready for 6G.
Realistically speaking Apple needed to be at the table where the standards themselves are thrashed out.
Without a seat at those tables you will always be playing catch up to a certain degree.
They acquired the Intel division plus accumulated patents. You could argue that got them onto the ladder. Climbing it is another story.
The odds of Apple producing a superior product to anything Huawei, Samsung, Qualcomm, Broadcom can produce are limited simply because those companies have decades of accumulated knowhow and resources.
Perhaps 'good enough' is where they are happy to be at the moment in terms of verticality in manufacturing. I think that's a valid aim but it won't free them of patent agreements.
Beyond the modem and antenna designs themselves, the whole thing was a result of a massive strategic goof. The spat with Qualcomm.
When the Intel plan collapsed it really was a Yikes! moment and although we don't know the details of the deal, it's hard to imagine Qualcomm not having the upper hand in negotiations.
It's funny, but I would use your exact same argument against Huawei/HiSilicon/SMIC, which are firmly anchored in pushing older Western tech to its limits, five years behind and attempting to break out. Who do you think is going to be more successful in their endeavors? Huawei/HiSilicon/SMIC or Apple?
And while some have lauded Huawei’s HiSilicon chip design business for beating Apple to the punch with the apparent development of its own 5G modem in China’s Mate 60 Pro, lab tests show that Huawei’s chips consume more power than competitors’ and cause the phone “to heat up” which is bad for performance.
So yeah, modems are hard.
Apple’s custom modem work continues, and Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman suggests we’ll likely see them gradually roll out before the current Qualcomm deal expires in 2026.
Qualcomm may have had the "upper hand" in negotiations, and has recently seen a reprieve, but it in fact Apple that was visionary enough to add long term options to the agreement, just in case. Should Apple deliver their own modem by 2026, or even later, it is due to Apple being able to generate enough revenue and profits to more than afford that considerable R&D effort.
You know, the same company that set the bar for smartphones some 16 years ago, which nobody saw coming.
First point: Huawei (and by a wide margin). Designing a modem and manufacturing the design are two different things and five years is a world away in technology.
Second point: if 'visionary' were even applicable, they would never have found themselves in this predicament in the first place. It was more a case of not having any more cards to play. To Qualcomm it just means one less competitor (and even that term is a stretch) and much more money.
Older western tech?
I hope you realise that NearLink devices are now shipping. LOL!
Apple was first to introduce UWD in a smartphone, and today, I expect every phone to have UWD of some type, but they don't because it isn't as cheap as BT.
Apparently, the secret of NearLink is to use a extremely wide spectrum, of the order of at least 400 MHz (a BT channel has 20 MHz, and a WiFi channel 20 (802.11 b) or 40 MHz.
I wouldn't be surprised of parallel data transfers.
This would be in line with the idea that Huawei wants a sort of "super device" where single devices can be added seamlessly in a modular fashion and sending data at high speeds.
Apple's UWB technology is similar, but proprietary and kept like a Draconian treasure. This led societies to instead release an update the Bluetooth LE, especially for wearables, to improve the data rate.
Of course, Huawei is able to introduce technology at 400 Mhz of bandwidth, in China that may not be allowed in the rest of the world.
You were going off about using 'older western tech' so I gave you the perfect example of the exact opposite. Of course, in a thread on 5G and Huawei being one of the major 5G players, trying to make the point you made was already flat on its face before you hit the 'post' button.
And when you say 'western' I suppose you are trying to squeeze TSMC in which is completely laughable.
On the subject of UWB, that is nothing new. It's been around for decades and Huawei has been using it for years now in industrial settings, so saying NearLink is UWB is saying nothing.
Like saying Apple was first to put UWB in a phone.
NearLink is a wireless implementation with over 300 companies on board. What counts here is what it does and how it does it. For example, it uses polar codes. As for cost, I'm not following you. How could Huawei put it in its newest earbuds if cost was an issue? Btw, those earbuds are taking advantage of NearLink to enable Huawei's latest HD audio codec.
Cost used to be a factor but if a pair of earbuds have it....
Taiwan is a democracy, hence why it is aligned with the West, ie, "Western", which is the EU, U.K., U.S., Canada, Australia, New Zealand, South Korea, and Japan, plus a number of smaller nations. It isn't about geography, nor does Taiwan belong to China due to geography.
As for UWB, All of the iPhones from 11 on, later watches, and of course, AirTags, have UWB, so, easily more than a billion devices.
You failed. Apple is so much a member that the organization is concerned about Apple throwing its weight around, and I did mention that Huawei's modem in the Mate 60 is noted for overheating the phone.
Utter hogwash.
Taiwan is not western because it's a democracy!
TSMC would be selling millions of EUV based chipsets to China if it weren't for sanctions. The minute US technology can be eradicated from tool lines, the restrictions will cease to exist in their current form. The same applies to South Korea.
In fact South Korea has made it clear to the US that too much meddling in its affairs won't be appropriate. It doesn't want to see any drastic movements with regards to China which is a major trading partner.
When that happens the US will double down on the government and bully Taiwan to impose export restrictions. Just like it did with the Dutch government. Very democratic! South Korea will be a hard nut to crack.
I haven't been paying too much attention to the thermals on the Mate 60 series but I haven't heard of issues with the modem. I have heard it gets hot with certain games and after hours of video recording.
FWIW I've also heard that the A17 Pro is overheating while gaming.
Read the story on how huawei got into cellular business. Not from the scratch for sure
Your point makes no sense. Apple bought its way in through a million dollar purchase.
The real issue is what I outlined in my post. Apple will never reach the top players until it finds a seat on the standards committees which shape the future.
Did that thinking apply to project replace Intel? Apple will never replace them but they did? it took 13 years to replace Intel in Apple products, project modem started five years ago. They still have plenty of time to make it happen and with Apples history in the last 25 years, they will make it happen, and once they do, they can put their foot on the gas pedal which is happening currently with their A, M and R1 series SOC’s every year they get better, however for some of the short term thinkers not fast enough?, but Apple’s iteration keeps moving forward.
I don’t remember your posts, but did you whine all the way through the Apple, Intel replacement process it can’t be done it will never be done impossible, Apple should just give up?
Apple might be faced with another replacement project, and that relates to Unity who struck out, after getting a little limelight on the big stage with their game engine, there are those who suggest Apple should just stay home and not do anything despite the fact that Unity appears to have lost their head, when they came up with terms for their developers that were far beyond anything, Apple has ever done, question is, should Apple trust put their future in AAA games into the hands of companies like Unity, or Epic? or roll up their sleeves and get busy internally.
You are distorting reality here. If PowerPC had delivered, Intel wouldn't have got a look in. If Intel had delivered, Apple Silicon might never have existed on Macs.
It all boils down to need. Apple needed Intel at the time. Bootcamp was a boon back then.
One thing to remember is that even when OSX was released on PowerPC, it wasn't long before Intel compiles started being built in secret (Marklar).
Everything is context and perspective dependant. That applies here too. If Intel had delivered a decent 5G modem we wouldn't be having this conversation.
It still remains a strategic goof though and of epic proportions.
Again you’re talking about partners. Not apple itself. PowerPC was an I’ve/Motorola partnership. Intel was another third party partnership. IBM didn’t care enough about apple to step on the throttle. Intel didn’t care enough about apple to change the status quo. Qualcomm cares so little for everyone, they abuse their monopoly.
The impossible things apple does:
1. comes back from the dead 2. Turns the music industry right side up with not only an answer to rampant piracy, but a pioneering revolution of the business.
3. Obliterates Sony in the portable music player space with iPod.
4. Obliterates everyone with a space age futuristic iphone that changes the way smartphones are designed, I/o is done, and what expectations of a mobile internet are.
5. Takes over the tablet industry entirely. 6. Launches an Apple Watch to dominate that industry.
7. Supersedes the CPU industry with its Appple Silicon.
Not to mention that Apple invented:
a. THE MOUSE b. FireWire c. Thunderbolt -in collaboration with Intel.
d. The QuickTime standard.
e. The ProRes video codec.
And more. Apple has been a responsible party in shaping our digital world either itself or in collaboration with others. So there is more than plenty ofreason to believe that Apple not only will Apple succeed at adding a modem category to its lineup, but that it will be ready for the future.
Still to come: 1. Apple car… 2. vision pro… 3. Cellular modem. Likely 5.5 or 6g (skate to where the puck is going to be. Not where it has been…)…
not everything apple does succeeds. Obviously, the Apple TV is still “a hobby.” And Apple TV plus could use an injection of enthusiasm. iCloud plus could hold more value, the g4 cube tanked (but the studio seems to be doing just fine…)
it’s a new Apple. Though it’s still finding it’s way again in terms of moving design forward, it’s definitely an engineering powerhouse at the top of the heap with the work ethic, the financial solvency, the drive, and talent to succeed.
A high performance cellular modem isn’t insurmountable even for a smaller company. The only real challenge is designing the system in such a way as to not intrude on all the patents Qualcomm has. That’s a major undertaking. Though daunting, it’s possible. It just takes time to get it right. Apple has to pioneer methods here. Rome wasn’t built in a day but it faded away due to arrogance. Meanwhile Apple’s modem won’t be a quick matter, but it will be great when complete. And apple is wise to remain cagey as they are acutely aware how easy it is to see a successful company die surrounded by cutthroat competitors. I’d say Apple is doing fine in the modem arena. They just aren’t there yet. Of course they aren’t. Two to Three more years of Qualcomm modems may actually mean apple is closer than that in launching their own modems as well.
ALSO
Let’s not forget that once apple launches its own modem, they still need to be able to fulfill orders for older handsets still on sale that require…qualcomm modems. With that in mind, this seems like the logical way to go. Apple could quite possibly be closer to launch than “another two to three years contract with qualcomm” would suggest.
Too much to unpick there but...
PowerPC was an 'alliance' (AIM) Apple, IBM, Motorola). There were lots of issues but one of them was ironic. Apple was pushing for power but the biggest market for PPC was low power embedded chips. Motorola was behind that. At the 'power' end IBM had, well, POWER. Apple was in between but not really selling enough to warrant the resources. What came out was good for a time and actually less power intensive than rivals in the PC space but then things fell apart with chips getting too hot and newrt chips getting delayed. The rest is history.
If Apple came back from the dead it was more luck than anything else. The iMac was certainly key but there is no getting around the fact that it could have failed just as easily as it succeeded. On the software side, the deal with the devil (Microsoft) was also key.
The MOUSE. Apple didn't invent the mouse. However, it did develop possibly one of the worst examples of a modern mouse: The hockey puck! And they stubbornly stuck with it and it's single button for too long.
The music industry. They got it wrong. The industry moved to streaming which is exactly what Apple thought was not a great idea. "People want to own their music" - Steve Jobs 2007. They were very late to the streaming party and had to make the service available outside the walled garden.
Firewire. Amazing product for its time. So much potential. In the end they screwed it all up through stubbornly trying to monetise it too much. So many projects were lined up but failed due to Apple's arrogance. HANA, LISSA... Such a shame.
And while they were screwing that up they stubbornly refused to use USB 2.0.
Thunderbolt. As you say, a collaborative effort. Not only Apple.
Video. You would be a fool to put all your video eggs in Apple’s basket.
I'm not sure how you managed to link that point to succeeding in getting a modem out the door, but getting a modem out the door isn't really the question. It's whether it will be competitive. As I said though, if it is for verticality I can see why they might want to do that.
I'd say a competitive 5G modem from a smaller company definitely is insurmountable.
Apple cannot avoid paying Qualcomm and Huawei patent fees for 5G. I can't see any way to avoid jumping through that hoop.
To the contrary of what some people claimed, it was never going to be easy. Not in software or in hardware.
5G is a huge collection of different standards and technologies falling under one general umbrella.
A few years ago you could have got away with NSA but now you have to support SA and advances for the immediate future (5.5G) and then be ready for 6G.
Realistically speaking Apple needed to be at the table where the standards themselves are thrashed out.
Without a seat at those tables you will always be playing catch up to a certain degree.
They acquired the Intel division plus accumulated patents. You could argue that got them onto the ladder. Climbing it is another story.
The odds of Apple producing a superior product to anything Huawei, Samsung, Qualcomm, Broadcom can produce are limited simply because those companies have decades of accumulated knowhow and resources.
Perhaps 'good enough' is where they are happy to be at the moment in terms of verticality in manufacturing. I think that's a valid aim but it won't free them of patent agreements.
Beyond the modem and antenna designs themselves, the whole thing was a result of a massive strategic goof. The spat with Qualcomm.
When the Intel plan collapsed it really was a Yikes! moment and although we don't know the details of the deal, it's hard to imagine Qualcomm not having the upper hand in negotiations.
It's funny, but I would use your exact same argument against Huawei/HiSilicon/SMIC, which are firmly anchored in pushing older Western tech to its limits, five years behind and attempting to break out. Who do you think is going to be more successful in their endeavors? Huawei/HiSilicon/SMIC or Apple?
And while some have lauded Huawei’s HiSilicon chip design business for beating Apple to the punch with the apparent development of its own 5G modem in China’s Mate 60 Pro, lab tests show that Huawei’s chips consume more power than competitors’ and cause the phone “to heat up” which is bad for performance.
So yeah, modems are hard.
Apple’s custom modem work continues, and Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman suggests we’ll likely see them gradually roll out before the current Qualcomm deal expires in 2026.
Qualcomm may have had the "upper hand" in negotiations, and has recently seen a reprieve, but it in fact Apple that was visionary enough to add long term options to the agreement, just in case. Should Apple deliver their own modem by 2026, or even later, it is due to Apple being able to generate enough revenue and profits to more than afford that considerable R&D effort.
You know, the same company that set the bar for smartphones some 16 years ago, which nobody saw coming.
First point: Huawei (and by a wide margin). Designing a modem and manufacturing the design are two different things and five years is a world away in technology.
Second point: if 'visionary' were even applicable, they would never have found themselves in this predicament in the first place. It was more a case of not having any more cards to play. To Qualcomm it just means one less competitor (and even that term is a stretch) and much more money.
Older western tech?
I hope you realise that NearLink devices are now shipping. LOL!
Apple was first to introduce UWD in a smartphone, and today, I expect every phone to have UWD of some type, but they don't because it isn't as cheap as BT.
Apparently, the secret of NearLink is to use a extremely wide spectrum, of the order of at least 400 MHz (a BT channel has 20 MHz, and a WiFi channel 20 (802.11 b) or 40 MHz.
I wouldn't be surprised of parallel data transfers.
This would be in line with the idea that Huawei wants a sort of "super device" where single devices can be added seamlessly in a modular fashion and sending data at high speeds.
Apple's UWB technology is similar, but proprietary and kept like a Draconian treasure. This led societies to instead release an update the Bluetooth LE, especially for wearables, to improve the data rate.
Of course, Huawei is able to introduce technology at 400 Mhz of bandwidth, in China that may not be allowed in the rest of the world.
You were going off about using 'older western tech' so I gave you the perfect example of the exact opposite. Of course, in a thread on 5G and Huawei being one of the major 5G players, trying to make the point you made was already flat on its face before you hit the 'post' button.
And when you say 'western' I suppose you are trying to squeeze TSMC in which is completely laughable.
On the subject of UWB, that is nothing new. It's been around for decades and Huawei has been using it for years now in industrial settings, so saying NearLink is UWB is saying nothing.
Like saying Apple was first to put UWB in a phone.
NearLink is a wireless implementation with over 300 companies on board. What counts here is what it does and how it does it. For example, it uses polar codes. As for cost, I'm not following you. How could Huawei put it in its newest earbuds if cost was an issue? Btw, those earbuds are taking advantage of NearLink to enable Huawei's latest HD audio codec.
Cost used to be a factor but if a pair of earbuds have it....
Taiwan is a democracy, hence why it is aligned with the West, ie, "Western", which is the EU, U.K., U.S., Canada, Australia, New Zealand, South Korea, and Japan, plus a number of smaller nations. It isn't about geography, nor does Taiwan belong to China due to geography.
As for UWB, All of the iPhones from 11 on, later watches, and of course, AirTags, have UWB, so, easily more than a billion devices.
You failed. Apple is so much a member that the organization is concerned about Apple throwing its weight around, and I did mention that Huawei's modem in the Mate 60 is noted for overheating the phone.
Utter hogwash.
Taiwan is not western because it's a democracy!
TSMC would be selling millions of EUV based chipsets to China if it weren't for sanctions. The minute US technology can be eradicated from tool lines, the restrictions will cease to exist in their current form. The same applies to South Korea.
In fact South Korea has made it clear to the US that too much meddling in its affairs won't be appropriate. It doesn't want to see any drastic movements with regards to China which is a major trading partner.
When that happens the US will double down on the government and bully Taiwan to impose export restrictions. Just like it did with the Dutch government. Very democratic! South Korea will be a hard nut to crack.
I haven't been paying too much attention to the thermals on the Mate 60 series but I haven't heard of issues with the modem. I have heard it gets hot with certain games and after hours of video recording.
FWIW I've also heard that the A17 Pro is overheating while gaming.
Geopolitics you have yet to master.
Funny thing about the U.S. "bullying" its allies; these same allies are dependent on the U.S. as a security guarantor against, you probably won't guess this, the PRC and Russia. So when the U.S. provided THAAD to South Korea, the PRC shit bricks, and essentially banned Samsung and many other products in China. Why? Because THAAD can see deep into Chinese territory from South Korea.
When the U.S. states that it really doesn't want to have Russia or the PLA using the best semiconductors available in weapons systems, or the best AI computing systems, they are quite serious, all because of the military threat of Russia and the PLA.
Note that Turkiye lost its ability to both produce F-35's components, and to purchase F-35's, for their misguided desire to purchase S-400 SAM systems from Russia. FAFO. Turns out that S-400's in Crimea aren't all that great at defending themselves from advanced stealth air to surface missiles.
For a fact, the EU, and the U.S. for that matter, ignored the threats from Russia, and the EU was happy to purchase cheap and plentiful energy, up until Russia decided to invade Ukraine. FAFO. Turns out that Russia, the prime ally of the PRC, isn't really a world class military, and without its nuclear weapons, would be toothless.
Meanwhile, China is poised to completely decimate the EU's auto production, and it would be remarkable if the EU can respond fast enough to prevent a disaster, but at least the EU got the wakeup call. FAFO. Even now, the EU can't wait to make more deals with China.
When the U.S. decides to lobby Japan, and the Netherlands wrt sales of semiconductor fab equipment, it's probably best to go along, because the U.S. does have a shit ton of working IP in that equipment, developed since the late '50's.
Apple has wasted billions of dollars and will need to spend billions more before they are able to produce a workable cellular modem. A combination of bad management , Apple arrogance and a total lack of understanding of the technology led to this poor outcome. For what purpose? To save $20 per phone? Apple could be in predicament in 3 years. Whatever solution they are able to create internally had better be up to the performance of Qualcomm and others. Can you imagine people choosing not to purchase an iPhone with an Apple cellular modem because its performance is inferior to Qualcomm and others? That would be devastating.
Apple has wasted billions of dollars and will need to spend billions more before they are able to produce a workable cellular modem. A combination of bad management , Apple arrogance and a total lack of understanding of the technology led to this poor outcome. For what purpose? To save $20 per phone? Apple could be in predicament in 3 years. Whatever solution they are able to create internally had better be up to the performance of Qualcomm and others. Can you imagine people choosing not to purchase an iPhone with an Apple cellular modem because its performance is inferior to Qualcomm and others? That would be devastating.
For the record, Apple can afford to "waste billions" until it gets it right, but it isn't necessary to match Qualcomm in specs; Apple only needs to be close. More importantly, Apple needs to see some side benefits from their own modem, ie, new capabilities.
Apple has wasted billions of dollars and will need to spend billions more before they are able to produce a workable cellular modem. A combination of bad management , Apple arrogance and a total lack of understanding of the technology led to this poor outcome. For what purpose? To save $20 per phone? Apple could be in predicament in 3 years. Whatever solution they are able to create internally had better be up to the performance of Qualcomm and others. Can you imagine people choosing not to purchase an iPhone with an Apple cellular modem because its performance is inferior to Qualcomm and others? That would be devastating.
LOL
R&D spending isn’t wasting money. It’s spending to discover and develop. People get paid to do their jobs and stuff costs money to buy. Then time is spent figuring it out. That’s how you arrive at a viable product. At least think a little before posting. And Apple isn’t limited to developing a 5g modem. 5g has been doing its thing, but it won’t be the gold standard for very long. Time is shortening between standards. It took 10 years between 3g and 4g. Then 7 years between 4g and 5g. With Apple a known standards creator and collaborator, it could be Apple receiving royalties from future standards. A lot on the table here, actually. A better way than designing around patents for a current product is to design beyond them for the next big thing.
Apple has wasted billions of dollars and will need to spend billions more before they are able to produce a workable cellular modem. A combination of bad management , Apple arrogance and a total lack of understanding of the technology led to this poor outcome. For what purpose? To save $20 per phone? Apple could be in predicament in 3 years. Whatever solution they are able to create internally had better be up to the performance of Qualcomm and others. Can you imagine people choosing not to purchase an iPhone with an Apple cellular modem because its performance is inferior to Qualcomm and others? That would be devastating.
LOL
R&D spending isn’t wasting money. It’s spending to discover and develop. People get paid to do their jobs and stuff costs money to buy. Then time is spent figuring it out. That’s how you arrive at a viable product. At least think a little before posting. And Apple isn’t limited to developing a 5g modem. 5g has been doing its thing, but it won’t be the gold standard for very long. Time is shortening between standards. It took 10 years between 3g and 4g. Then 7 years between 4g and 5g. With Apple a known standards creator and collaborator, it could be Apple receiving royalties from future standards. A lot on the table here, actually. A better way than designing around patents for a current product is to design beyond them for the next big thing.
R&D can definitely be wasting money. It all depends on the return on investment. The thing is, you won't get far without R&D so you have to put money into it.
If your projects don't lead to fruits, you are in trouble.
Time is shortening between rollouts, at the moment. The key here being rollouts, not development. It took around ten years to bake 5G (2009-2019). It will take just as long to bake 6G (2020-2030).
Rollouts are entirely dependant on carriers who, when they are cash strapped, will take longer to make technology available. After all, before they can upgrade their equipment they need it to have generated enough revenues to cover the initial outlay. They also need to purchase spectrum from their governments.
Read the story on how huawei got into cellular business. Not from the scratch for sure
Your point makes no sense. Apple bought its way in through a million dollar purchase.
The real issue is what I outlined in my post. Apple will never reach the top players until it finds a seat on the standards committees which shape the future.
Did that thinking apply to project replace Intel? Apple will never replace them but they did? it took 13 years to replace Intel in Apple products, project modem started five years ago. They still have plenty of time to make it happen and with Apples history in the last 25 years, they will make it happen, and once they do, they can put their foot on the gas pedal which is happening currently with their A, M and R1 series SOC’s every year they get better, however for some of the short term thinkers not fast enough?, but Apple’s iteration keeps moving forward.
I don’t remember your posts, but did you whine all the way through the Apple, Intel replacement process it can’t be done it will never be done impossible, Apple should just give up?
Apple might be faced with another replacement project, and that relates to Unity who struck out, after getting a little limelight on the big stage with their game engine, there are those who suggest Apple should just stay home and not do anything despite the fact that Unity appears to have lost their head, when they came up with terms for their developers that were far beyond anything, Apple has ever done, question is, should Apple trust put their future in AAA games into the hands of companies like Unity, or Epic? or roll up their sleeves and get busy internally.
You are distorting reality here. If PowerPC had delivered, Intel wouldn't have got a look in. If Intel had delivered, Apple Silicon might never have existed on Macs.
It all boils down to need. Apple needed Intel at the time. Bootcamp was a boon back then.
One thing to remember is that even when OSX was released on PowerPC, it wasn't long before Intel compiles started being built in secret (Marklar).
Everything is context and perspective dependant. That applies here too. If Intel had delivered a decent 5G modem we wouldn't be having this conversation.
It still remains a strategic goof though and of epic proportions.
Again you’re talking about partners. Not apple itself. PowerPC was an I’ve/Motorola partnership. Intel was another third party partnership. IBM didn’t care enough about apple to step on the throttle. Intel didn’t care enough about apple to change the status quo. Qualcomm cares so little for everyone, they abuse their monopoly.
The impossible things apple does:
1. comes back from the dead 2. Turns the music industry right side up with not only an answer to rampant piracy, but a pioneering revolution of the business.
3. Obliterates Sony in the portable music player space with iPod.
4. Obliterates everyone with a space age futuristic iphone that changes the way smartphones are designed, I/o is done, and what expectations of a mobile internet are.
5. Takes over the tablet industry entirely. 6. Launches an Apple Watch to dominate that industry.
7. Supersedes the CPU industry with its Appple Silicon.
Not to mention that Apple invented:
a. THE MOUSE b. FireWire c. Thunderbolt -in collaboration with Intel.
d. The QuickTime standard.
e. The ProRes video codec.
And more. Apple has been a responsible party in shaping our digital world either itself or in collaboration with others. So there is more than plenty ofreason to believe that Apple not only will Apple succeed at adding a modem category to its lineup, but that it will be ready for the future.
Still to come: 1. Apple car… 2. vision pro… 3. Cellular modem. Likely 5.5 or 6g (skate to where the puck is going to be. Not where it has been…)…
not everything apple does succeeds. Obviously, the Apple TV is still “a hobby.” And Apple TV plus could use an injection of enthusiasm. iCloud plus could hold more value, the g4 cube tanked (but the studio seems to be doing just fine…)
it’s a new Apple. Though it’s still finding it’s way again in terms of moving design forward, it’s definitely an engineering powerhouse at the top of the heap with the work ethic, the financial solvency, the drive, and talent to succeed.
A high performance cellular modem isn’t insurmountable even for a smaller company. The only real challenge is designing the system in such a way as to not intrude on all the patents Qualcomm has. That’s a major undertaking. Though daunting, it’s possible. It just takes time to get it right. Apple has to pioneer methods here. Rome wasn’t built in a day but it faded away due to arrogance. Meanwhile Apple’s modem won’t be a quick matter, but it will be great when complete. And apple is wise to remain cagey as they are acutely aware how easy it is to see a successful company die surrounded by cutthroat competitors. I’d say Apple is doing fine in the modem arena. They just aren’t there yet. Of course they aren’t. Two to Three more years of Qualcomm modems may actually mean apple is closer than that in launching their own modems as well.
ALSO
Let’s not forget that once apple launches its own modem, they still need to be able to fulfill orders for older handsets still on sale that require…qualcomm modems. With that in mind, this seems like the logical way to go. Apple could quite possibly be closer to launch than “another two to three years contract with qualcomm” would suggest.
Too much to unpick there but...
PowerPC was an 'alliance' (AIM) Apple, IBM, Motorola). There were lots of issues but one of them was ironic. Apple was pushing for power but the biggest market for PPC was low power embedded chips. Motorola was behind that. At the 'power' end IBM had, well, POWER. Apple was in between but not really selling enough to warrant the resources. What came out was good for a time and actually less power intensive than rivals in the PC space but then things fell apart with chips getting too hot and newrt chips getting delayed. The rest is history.
If Apple came back from the dead it was more luck than anything else. The iMac was certainly key but there is no getting around the fact that it could have failed just as easily as it succeeded. On the software side, the deal with the devil (Microsoft) was also key.
The MOUSE. Apple didn't invent the mouse. However, it did develop possibly one of the worst examples of a modern mouse: The hockey puck! And they stubbornly stuck with it and it's single button for too long.
The music industry. They got it wrong. The industry moved to streaming which is exactly what Apple thought was not a great idea. "People want to own their music" - Steve Jobs 2007. They were very late to the streaming party and had to make the service available outside the walled garden.
Firewire. Amazing product for its time. So much potential. In the end they screwed it all up through stubbornly trying to monetise it too much. So many projects were lined up but failed due to Apple's arrogance. HANA, LISSA... Such a shame.
And while they were screwing that up they stubbornly refused to use USB 2.0.
Thunderbolt. As you say, a collaborative effort. Not only Apple.
Video. You would be a fool to put all your video eggs in Apple’s basket.
I'm not sure how you managed to link that point to succeeding in getting a modem out the door, but getting a modem out the door isn't really the question. It's whether it will be competitive. As I said though, if it is for verticality I can see why they might want to do that.
I'd say a competitive 5G modem from a smaller company definitely is insurmountable.
Apple cannot avoid paying Qualcomm and Huawei patent fees for 5G. I can't see any way to avoid jumping through that hoop.
A lot of faulty thinking there unfortunately.
Alliance doesn’t equal development. Apple used the product and marketed their use of it. Thst was their part. Still just a customer.
Apple coming back from the dead was luck? Seriously bruh.
Steve Jobs learned a whole heck of a lot after being betrayed the first time and built an incredible company called NEXT, which developed tech and principles still used today. Jobs’ humility and wisdom in getting a competitor to invest, the streamlining of its lineup, and introduction of iconic devices and masterful experiences that were carefully crafted and curated were not “luck.” It was genius.
Apple most certainly did transform the music industry and iTunes downloads riled the day for a decade or more. When streaming was picking up, apple did that too. Win-win.
Apple did invent the modern computer mouse. The concept of a device similar to a mouse reeecisyed, but was nothing like the industry standard modern mouse created by apple which formed the basics of almost every computer mouse ever since.
Thunderbolt. Yes. As I said already. Apple wouldn’t be pushing a universal computing standard if it were only on macs. At the time, apple wasn’t the silicon behemoth it is now either. Yet Intel couldn’t have done it without Apple.
Yes you absolutely do understand how this links to apple succeeding at creating a performant cellular modem. It shows Apple has a track record of success in either turning the world on its head or in pioneering paths ahead that blow the doors off competitors, whether that be a video standard like QuickTime that was insanely great for its day, a data transfer standard like FireWire that was way better than USB, DisplayPort, which was better than hdmi (which they made extra cash by licensing to VESA), Thunderbolt in collab with Intel, or it’s very own SOCs, which rocked the industry.
Apple was an animal back then, but it’s an absolute beast now. Apple is fine building its own modem. And it may launch sooner than you think. In 2026, it will have been 8 years since 5g - when it was only 7 between 4g and 5g. Not only can Apple lead in the 5g space, but they may just possibly have a little something up their sleeves that coexists with it. A new standard is coming at some point in the not to distant future. And apple is no stranger to setting standards.
To the contrary of what some people claimed, it was never going to be easy. Not in software or in hardware.
5G is a huge collection of different standards and technologies falling under one general umbrella.
A few years ago you could have got away with NSA but now you have to support SA and advances for the immediate future (5.5G) and then be ready for 6G.
Realistically speaking Apple needed to be at the table where the standards themselves are thrashed out.
Without a seat at those tables you will always be playing catch up to a certain degree.
They acquired the Intel division plus accumulated patents. You could argue that got them onto the ladder. Climbing it is another story.
The odds of Apple producing a superior product to anything Huawei, Samsung, Qualcomm, Broadcom can produce are limited simply because those companies have decades of accumulated knowhow and resources.
Perhaps 'good enough' is where they are happy to be at the moment in terms of verticality in manufacturing. I think that's a valid aim but it won't free them of patent agreements.
Beyond the modem and antenna designs themselves, the whole thing was a result of a massive strategic goof. The spat with Qualcomm.
When the Intel plan collapsed it really was a Yikes! moment and although we don't know the details of the deal, it's hard to imagine Qualcomm not having the upper hand in negotiations.
It's funny, but I would use your exact same argument against Huawei/HiSilicon/SMIC, which are firmly anchored in pushing older Western tech to its limits, five years behind and attempting to break out. Who do you think is going to be more successful in their endeavors? Huawei/HiSilicon/SMIC or Apple?
And while some have lauded Huawei’s HiSilicon chip design business for beating Apple to the punch with the apparent development of its own 5G modem in China’s Mate 60 Pro, lab tests show that Huawei’s chips consume more power than competitors’ and cause the phone “to heat up” which is bad for performance.
So yeah, modems are hard.
Apple’s custom modem work continues, and Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman suggests we’ll likely see them gradually roll out before the current Qualcomm deal expires in 2026.
Qualcomm may have had the "upper hand" in negotiations, and has recently seen a reprieve, but it in fact Apple that was visionary enough to add long term options to the agreement, just in case. Should Apple deliver their own modem by 2026, or even later, it is due to Apple being able to generate enough revenue and profits to more than afford that considerable R&D effort.
You know, the same company that set the bar for smartphones some 16 years ago, which nobody saw coming.
First point: Huawei (and by a wide margin). Designing a modem and manufacturing the design are two different things and five years is a world away in technology.
Second point: if 'visionary' were even applicable, they would never have found themselves in this predicament in the first place. It was more a case of not having any more cards to play. To Qualcomm it just means one less competitor (and even that term is a stretch) and much more money.
Older western tech?
I hope you realise that NearLink devices are now shipping. LOL!
Apple was first to introduce UWD in a smartphone, and today, I expect every phone to have UWD of some type, but they don't because it isn't as cheap as BT.
Apparently, the secret of NearLink is to use a extremely wide spectrum, of the order of at least 400 MHz (a BT channel has 20 MHz, and a WiFi channel 20 (802.11 b) or 40 MHz.
I wouldn't be surprised of parallel data transfers.
This would be in line with the idea that Huawei wants a sort of "super device" where single devices can be added seamlessly in a modular fashion and sending data at high speeds.
Apple's UWB technology is similar, but proprietary and kept like a Draconian treasure. This led societies to instead release an update the Bluetooth LE, especially for wearables, to improve the data rate.
Of course, Huawei is able to introduce technology at 400 Mhz of bandwidth, in China that may not be allowed in the rest of the world.
You were going off about using 'older western tech' so I gave you the perfect example of the exact opposite. Of course, in a thread on 5G and Huawei being one of the major 5G players, trying to make the point you made was already flat on its face before you hit the 'post' button.
And when you say 'western' I suppose you are trying to squeeze TSMC in which is completely laughable.
On the subject of UWB, that is nothing new. It's been around for decades and Huawei has been using it for years now in industrial settings, so saying NearLink is UWB is saying nothing.
Like saying Apple was first to put UWB in a phone.
NearLink is a wireless implementation with over 300 companies on board. What counts here is what it does and how it does it. For example, it uses polar codes. As for cost, I'm not following you. How could Huawei put it in its newest earbuds if cost was an issue? Btw, those earbuds are taking advantage of NearLink to enable Huawei's latest HD audio codec.
Cost used to be a factor but if a pair of earbuds have it....
Taiwan is a democracy, hence why it is aligned with the West, ie, "Western", which is the EU, U.K., U.S., Canada, Australia, New Zealand, South Korea, and Japan, plus a number of smaller nations. It isn't about geography, nor does Taiwan belong to China due to geography.
As for UWB, All of the iPhones from 11 on, later watches, and of course, AirTags, have UWB, so, easily more than a billion devices.
You failed. Apple is so much a member that the organization is concerned about Apple throwing its weight around, and I did mention that Huawei's modem in the Mate 60 is noted for overheating the phone.
Utter hogwash.
Taiwan is not western because it's a democracy!
TSMC would be selling millions of EUV based chipsets to China if it weren't for sanctions. The minute US technology can be eradicated from tool lines, the restrictions will cease to exist in their current form. The same applies to South Korea.
In fact South Korea has made it clear to the US that too much meddling in its affairs won't be appropriate. It doesn't want to see any drastic movements with regards to China which is a major trading partner.
When that happens the US will double down on the government and bully Taiwan to impose export restrictions. Just like it did with the Dutch government. Very democratic! South Korea will be a hard nut to crack.
I haven't been paying too much attention to the thermals on the Mate 60 series but I haven't heard of issues with the modem. I have heard it gets hot with certain games and after hours of video recording.
FWIW I've also heard that the A17 Pro is overheating while gaming.
Geopolitics you have yet to master.
Funny thing about the U.S. "bullying" its allies; these same allies are dependent on the U.S. as a security guarantor against, you probably won't guess this, the PRC and Russia. So when the U.S. provided THAAD to South Korea, the PRC shit bricks, and essentially banned Samsung and many other products in China. Why? Because THAAD can see deep into Chinese territory from South Korea.
When the U.S. states that it really doesn't want to have Russia or the PLA using the best semiconductors available in weapons systems, or the best AI computing systems, they are quite serious, all because of the military threat of Russia and the PLA.
Note that Turkiye lost its ability to both produce F-35's components, and to purchase F-35's, for their misguided desire to purchase S-400 SAM systems from Russia. FAFO. Turns out that S-400's in Crimea aren't all that great at defending themselves from advanced stealth air to surface missiles.
For a fact, the EU, and the U.S. for that matter, ignored the threats from Russia, and the EU was happy to purchase cheap and plentiful energy, up until Russia decided to invade Ukraine. FAFO. Turns out that Russia, the prime ally of the PRC, isn't really a world class military, and without its nuclear weapons, would be toothless.
Meanwhile, China is poised to completely decimate the EU's auto production, and it would be remarkable if the EU can respond fast enough to prevent a disaster, but at least the EU got the wakeup call. FAFO. Even now, the EU can't wait to make more deals with China.
When the U.S. decides to lobby Japan, and the Netherlands wrt sales of semiconductor fab equipment, it's probably best to go along, because the U.S. does have a shit ton of working IP in that equipment, developed since the late '50's.
And in spite of all that, my point still stands. Exactly as it was.
Korea has made it clear to the US that it doesn't want to have to decide in an either/or situation.
That’s how it got the one year exemption in the first place.
To the contrary of what some people claimed, it was never going to be easy. Not in software or in hardware.
5G is a huge collection of different standards and technologies falling under one general umbrella.
A few years ago you could have got away with NSA but now you have to support SA and advances for the immediate future (5.5G) and then be ready for 6G.
Realistically speaking Apple needed to be at the table where the standards themselves are thrashed out.
Without a seat at those tables you will always be playing catch up to a certain degree.
They acquired the Intel division plus accumulated patents. You could argue that got them onto the ladder. Climbing it is another story.
The odds of Apple producing a superior product to anything Huawei, Samsung, Qualcomm, Broadcom can produce are limited simply because those companies have decades of accumulated knowhow and resources.
Perhaps 'good enough' is where they are happy to be at the moment in terms of verticality in manufacturing. I think that's a valid aim but it won't free them of patent agreements.
Beyond the modem and antenna designs themselves, the whole thing was a result of a massive strategic goof. The spat with Qualcomm.
When the Intel plan collapsed it really was a Yikes! moment and although we don't know the details of the deal, it's hard to imagine Qualcomm not having the upper hand in negotiations.
It's funny, but I would use your exact same argument against Huawei/HiSilicon/SMIC, which are firmly anchored in pushing older Western tech to its limits, five years behind and attempting to break out. Who do you think is going to be more successful in their endeavors? Huawei/HiSilicon/SMIC or Apple?
And while some have lauded Huawei’s HiSilicon chip design business for beating Apple to the punch with the apparent development of its own 5G modem in China’s Mate 60 Pro, lab tests show that Huawei’s chips consume more power than competitors’ and cause the phone “to heat up” which is bad for performance.
So yeah, modems are hard.
Apple’s custom modem work continues, and Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman suggests we’ll likely see them gradually roll out before the current Qualcomm deal expires in 2026.
Qualcomm may have had the "upper hand" in negotiations, and has recently seen a reprieve, but it in fact Apple that was visionary enough to add long term options to the agreement, just in case. Should Apple deliver their own modem by 2026, or even later, it is due to Apple being able to generate enough revenue and profits to more than afford that considerable R&D effort.
You know, the same company that set the bar for smartphones some 16 years ago, which nobody saw coming.
First point: Huawei (and by a wide margin). Designing a modem and manufacturing the design are two different things and five years is a world away in technology.
Second point: if 'visionary' were even applicable, they would never have found themselves in this predicament in the first place. It was more a case of not having any more cards to play. To Qualcomm it just means one less competitor (and even that term is a stretch) and much more money.
Older western tech?
I hope you realise that NearLink devices are now shipping. LOL!
Apple was first to introduce UWD in a smartphone, and today, I expect every phone to have UWD of some type, but they don't because it isn't as cheap as BT.
Apparently, the secret of NearLink is to use a extremely wide spectrum, of the order of at least 400 MHz (a BT channel has 20 MHz, and a WiFi channel 20 (802.11 b) or 40 MHz.
I wouldn't be surprised of parallel data transfers.
This would be in line with the idea that Huawei wants a sort of "super device" where single devices can be added seamlessly in a modular fashion and sending data at high speeds.
Apple's UWB technology is similar, but proprietary and kept like a Draconian treasure. This led societies to instead release an update the Bluetooth LE, especially for wearables, to improve the data rate.
Of course, Huawei is able to introduce technology at 400 Mhz of bandwidth, in China that may not be allowed in the rest of the world.
You were going off about using 'older western tech' so I gave you the perfect example of the exact opposite. Of course, in a thread on 5G and Huawei being one of the major 5G players, trying to make the point you made was already flat on its face before you hit the 'post' button.
And when you say 'western' I suppose you are trying to squeeze TSMC in which is completely laughable.
On the subject of UWB, that is nothing new. It's been around for decades and Huawei has been using it for years now in industrial settings, so saying NearLink is UWB is saying nothing.
Like saying Apple was first to put UWB in a phone.
NearLink is a wireless implementation with over 300 companies on board. What counts here is what it does and how it does it. For example, it uses polar codes. As for cost, I'm not following you. How could Huawei put it in its newest earbuds if cost was an issue? Btw, those earbuds are taking advantage of NearLink to enable Huawei's latest HD audio codec.
Cost used to be a factor but if a pair of earbuds have it....
Taiwan is a democracy, hence why it is aligned with the West, ie, "Western", which is the EU, U.K., U.S., Canada, Australia, New Zealand, South Korea, and Japan, plus a number of smaller nations. It isn't about geography, nor does Taiwan belong to China due to geography.
As for UWB, All of the iPhones from 11 on, later watches, and of course, AirTags, have UWB, so, easily more than a billion devices.
You failed. Apple is so much a member that the organization is concerned about Apple throwing its weight around, and I did mention that Huawei's modem in the Mate 60 is noted for overheating the phone.
Utter hogwash.
Taiwan is not western because it's a democracy!
TSMC would be selling millions of EUV based chipsets to China if it weren't for sanctions. The minute US technology can be eradicated from tool lines, the restrictions will cease to exist in their current form. The same applies to South Korea.
In fact South Korea has made it clear to the US that too much meddling in its affairs won't be appropriate. It doesn't want to see any drastic movements with regards to China which is a major trading partner.
When that happens the US will double down on the government and bully Taiwan to impose export restrictions. Just like it did with the Dutch government. Very democratic! South Korea will be a hard nut to crack.
I haven't been paying too much attention to the thermals on the Mate 60 series but I haven't heard of issues with the modem. I have heard it gets hot with certain games and after hours of video recording.
FWIW I've also heard that the A17 Pro is overheating while gaming.
Geopolitics you have yet to master.
Funny thing about the U.S. "bullying" its allies; these same allies are dependent on the U.S. as a security guarantor against, you probably won't guess this, the PRC and Russia. So when the U.S. provided THAAD to South Korea, the PRC shit bricks, and essentially banned Samsung and many other products in China. Why? Because THAAD can see deep into Chinese territory from South Korea.
When the U.S. states that it really doesn't want to have Russia or the PLA using the best semiconductors available in weapons systems, or the best AI computing systems, they are quite serious, all because of the military threat of Russia and the PLA.
Note that Turkiye lost its ability to both produce F-35's components, and to purchase F-35's, for their misguided desire to purchase S-400 SAM systems from Russia. FAFO. Turns out that S-400's in Crimea aren't all that great at defending themselves from advanced stealth air to surface missiles.
For a fact, the EU, and the U.S. for that matter, ignored the threats from Russia, and the EU was happy to purchase cheap and plentiful energy, up until Russia decided to invade Ukraine. FAFO. Turns out that Russia, the prime ally of the PRC, isn't really a world class military, and without its nuclear weapons, would be toothless.
Meanwhile, China is poised to completely decimate the EU's auto production, and it would be remarkable if the EU can respond fast enough to prevent a disaster, but at least the EU got the wakeup call. FAFO. Even now, the EU can't wait to make more deals with China.
When the U.S. decides to lobby Japan, and the Netherlands wrt sales of semiconductor fab equipment, it's probably best to go along, because the U.S. does have a shit ton of working IP in that equipment, developed since the late '50's.
And in spite of all that, my point still stands. Exactly as it was.
Korea has made it clear to the US that it doesn't want to have to decide in an either/or situation.
That’s how it got the one year exemption in the first place.
You seem unable to acknowledge that the U.S. does in fact control a large amount of semiconductor IP, yet you are quite happy to post that the U.S. did in fact negotiate an exemption with its partners and allies, and follows up with this extension.
Not sure of the details of your article or when it was dated, since I don't have access, but this link below actually provides the details of the extension to the exiting exemption that the U.S. has negotiated with South Korea;
WASHINGTON -- The U.S. has decided to extend its one-year exemption allowing South Korean and Taiwanese chipmakers to continue bringing advanced semiconductor technology and related equipment into China, multiple industry sources told Nikkei.
The move is seen as potentially undermining U.S. efforts to curb China's ambitions in the tech sector. But it is also expected to prevent widespread disruption in the global semiconductor supply chain.
Alan Estevez, the U.S. undersecretary of commerce for industry and security, had touched on the possibility of an extension during an industry event in June. The duration of the extension has not yet been decided. But a proposal in the administration to make the exemptions indefinite has been floated.
The U.S. last October imposed sweeping restrictions on exports of advanced semiconductors and chipmaking equipment to China. It also banned "U.S. persons" from helping the development or production of chips at Chinese facilities without a license.
Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., which all have major production hubs in China, lobbied against the curbs, claiming they would deal a major blow to business. The U.S. later issued the companies a one-year waiver that allowed them to continue transactions similar to those they had been engaged in before the introduction of the restrictions.
The U.S. plans to extend that exemption, currently set to expire this October, with the same conditions. This would permit South Korean and Taiwanese companies to bring American chipmaking equipment and other key supplies to their facilities in China, allowing production to continue uninterrupted.
Please note that China and Chinese companies are not getting access to that equipment, and the only way they would have access to that equipment, is at some point in the future, to "take it", which would be a very bad idea for China's already slowing economy.
To the contrary of what some people claimed, it was never going to be easy. Not in software or in hardware.
5G is a huge collection of different standards and technologies falling under one general umbrella.
A few years ago you could have got away with NSA but now you have to support SA and advances for the immediate future (5.5G) and then be ready for 6G.
Realistically speaking Apple needed to be at the table where the standards themselves are thrashed out.
Without a seat at those tables you will always be playing catch up to a certain degree.
They acquired the Intel division plus accumulated patents. You could argue that got them onto the ladder. Climbing it is another story.
The odds of Apple producing a superior product to anything Huawei, Samsung, Qualcomm, Broadcom can produce are limited simply because those companies have decades of accumulated knowhow and resources.
Perhaps 'good enough' is where they are happy to be at the moment in terms of verticality in manufacturing. I think that's a valid aim but it won't free them of patent agreements.
Beyond the modem and antenna designs themselves, the whole thing was a result of a massive strategic goof. The spat with Qualcomm.
When the Intel plan collapsed it really was a Yikes! moment and although we don't know the details of the deal, it's hard to imagine Qualcomm not having the upper hand in negotiations.
It's funny, but I would use your exact same argument against Huawei/HiSilicon/SMIC, which are firmly anchored in pushing older Western tech to its limits, five years behind and attempting to break out. Who do you think is going to be more successful in their endeavors? Huawei/HiSilicon/SMIC or Apple?
And while some have lauded Huawei’s HiSilicon chip design business for beating Apple to the punch with the apparent development of its own 5G modem in China’s Mate 60 Pro, lab tests show that Huawei’s chips consume more power than competitors’ and cause the phone “to heat up” which is bad for performance.
So yeah, modems are hard.
Apple’s custom modem work continues, and Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman suggests we’ll likely see them gradually roll out before the current Qualcomm deal expires in 2026.
Qualcomm may have had the "upper hand" in negotiations, and has recently seen a reprieve, but it in fact Apple that was visionary enough to add long term options to the agreement, just in case. Should Apple deliver their own modem by 2026, or even later, it is due to Apple being able to generate enough revenue and profits to more than afford that considerable R&D effort.
You know, the same company that set the bar for smartphones some 16 years ago, which nobody saw coming.
First point: Huawei (and by a wide margin). Designing a modem and manufacturing the design are two different things and five years is a world away in technology.
Second point: if 'visionary' were even applicable, they would never have found themselves in this predicament in the first place. It was more a case of not having any more cards to play. To Qualcomm it just means one less competitor (and even that term is a stretch) and much more money.
Older western tech?
I hope you realise that NearLink devices are now shipping. LOL!
Apple was first to introduce UWD in a smartphone, and today, I expect every phone to have UWD of some type, but they don't because it isn't as cheap as BT.
Apparently, the secret of NearLink is to use a extremely wide spectrum, of the order of at least 400 MHz (a BT channel has 20 MHz, and a WiFi channel 20 (802.11 b) or 40 MHz.
I wouldn't be surprised of parallel data transfers.
This would be in line with the idea that Huawei wants a sort of "super device" where single devices can be added seamlessly in a modular fashion and sending data at high speeds.
Apple's UWB technology is similar, but proprietary and kept like a Draconian treasure. This led societies to instead release an update the Bluetooth LE, especially for wearables, to improve the data rate.
Of course, Huawei is able to introduce technology at 400 Mhz of bandwidth, in China that may not be allowed in the rest of the world.
You were going off about using 'older western tech' so I gave you the perfect example of the exact opposite. Of course, in a thread on 5G and Huawei being one of the major 5G players, trying to make the point you made was already flat on its face before you hit the 'post' button.
And when you say 'western' I suppose you are trying to squeeze TSMC in which is completely laughable.
On the subject of UWB, that is nothing new. It's been around for decades and Huawei has been using it for years now in industrial settings, so saying NearLink is UWB is saying nothing.
Like saying Apple was first to put UWB in a phone.
NearLink is a wireless implementation with over 300 companies on board. What counts here is what it does and how it does it. For example, it uses polar codes. As for cost, I'm not following you. How could Huawei put it in its newest earbuds if cost was an issue? Btw, those earbuds are taking advantage of NearLink to enable Huawei's latest HD audio codec.
Cost used to be a factor but if a pair of earbuds have it....
Taiwan is a democracy, hence why it is aligned with the West, ie, "Western", which is the EU, U.K., U.S., Canada, Australia, New Zealand, South Korea, and Japan, plus a number of smaller nations. It isn't about geography, nor does Taiwan belong to China due to geography.
As for UWB, All of the iPhones from 11 on, later watches, and of course, AirTags, have UWB, so, easily more than a billion devices.
You failed. Apple is so much a member that the organization is concerned about Apple throwing its weight around, and I did mention that Huawei's modem in the Mate 60 is noted for overheating the phone.
Utter hogwash.
Taiwan is not western because it's a democracy!
TSMC would be selling millions of EUV based chipsets to China if it weren't for sanctions. The minute US technology can be eradicated from tool lines, the restrictions will cease to exist in their current form. The same applies to South Korea.
In fact South Korea has made it clear to the US that too much meddling in its affairs won't be appropriate. It doesn't want to see any drastic movements with regards to China which is a major trading partner.
When that happens the US will double down on the government and bully Taiwan to impose export restrictions. Just like it did with the Dutch government. Very democratic! South Korea will be a hard nut to crack.
I haven't been paying too much attention to the thermals on the Mate 60 series but I haven't heard of issues with the modem. I have heard it gets hot with certain games and after hours of video recording.
FWIW I've also heard that the A17 Pro is overheating while gaming.
Geopolitics you have yet to master.
Funny thing about the U.S. "bullying" its allies; these same allies are dependent on the U.S. as a security guarantor against, you probably won't guess this, the PRC and Russia. So when the U.S. provided THAAD to South Korea, the PRC shit bricks, and essentially banned Samsung and many other products in China. Why? Because THAAD can see deep into Chinese territory from South Korea.
When the U.S. states that it really doesn't want to have Russia or the PLA using the best semiconductors available in weapons systems, or the best AI computing systems, they are quite serious, all because of the military threat of Russia and the PLA.
Note that Turkiye lost its ability to both produce F-35's components, and to purchase F-35's, for their misguided desire to purchase S-400 SAM systems from Russia. FAFO. Turns out that S-400's in Crimea aren't all that great at defending themselves from advanced stealth air to surface missiles.
For a fact, the EU, and the U.S. for that matter, ignored the threats from Russia, and the EU was happy to purchase cheap and plentiful energy, up until Russia decided to invade Ukraine. FAFO. Turns out that Russia, the prime ally of the PRC, isn't really a world class military, and without its nuclear weapons, would be toothless.
Meanwhile, China is poised to completely decimate the EU's auto production, and it would be remarkable if the EU can respond fast enough to prevent a disaster, but at least the EU got the wakeup call. FAFO. Even now, the EU can't wait to make more deals with China.
When the U.S. decides to lobby Japan, and the Netherlands wrt sales of semiconductor fab equipment, it's probably best to go along, because the U.S. does have a shit ton of working IP in that equipment, developed since the late '50's.
And in spite of all that, my point still stands. Exactly as it was.
Korea has made it clear to the US that it doesn't want to have to decide in an either/or situation.
That’s how it got the one year exemption in the first place.
You seem unable to acknowledge that the U.S. does in fact control a large amount of semiconductor IP, yet you are quite happy to post that the U.S. did in fact negotiate an exemption with its partners and allies, and follows up with this extension.
Not sure of the details of your article or when it was dated, since I don't have access, but this link below actually provides the details of the extension to the exiting exemption that the U.S. has negotiated with South Korea;
WASHINGTON -- The U.S. has decided to extend its one-year exemption allowing South Korean and Taiwanese chipmakers to continue bringing advanced semiconductor technology and related equipment into China, multiple industry sources told Nikkei.
The move is seen as potentially undermining U.S. efforts to curb China's ambitions in the tech sector. But it is also expected to prevent widespread disruption in the global semiconductor supply chain.
Alan Estevez, the U.S. undersecretary of commerce for industry and security, had touched on the possibility of an extension during an industry event in June. The duration of the extension has not yet been decided. But a proposal in the administration to make the exemptions indefinite has been floated.
The U.S. last October imposed sweeping restrictions on exports of advanced semiconductors and chipmaking equipment to China. It also banned "U.S. persons" from helping the development or production of chips at Chinese facilities without a license.
Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., which all have major production hubs in China, lobbied against the curbs, claiming they would deal a major blow to business. The U.S. later issued the companies a one-year waiver that allowed them to continue transactions similar to those they had been engaged in before the introduction of the restrictions.
The U.S. plans to extend that exemption, currently set to expire this October, with the same conditions. This would permit South Korean and Taiwanese companies to bring American chipmaking equipment and other key supplies to their facilities in China, allowing production to continue uninterrupted.
Please note that China and Chinese companies are not getting access to that equipment, and the only way they would have access to that equipment, is at some point in the future, to "take it", which would be a very bad idea for China's already slowing economy.
You are wilfully ignoring the point. South Korea has stated it should not be asked to choose.
Here is a quote from the article:
"The more the US sanctions China, the harder China will try to make rapid technological progress. China will provide more national support for the goal. Then it will pose a crisis to South Korea, given China’s abundant talent and raw materials"
That sentiment is also present within the Dutch government. As things stand, sanctions themselves can only be effective if US origin technology is present.
Many industry watchers have consistently stated that de-Americanisation is probably well underway but that design changes can take up to five years to reach the market.
China itself isn't waiting though. As pointed out by a worried South Korea.
This explains the situation with crystal clear clarity:
To the contrary of what some people claimed, it was never going to be easy. Not in software or in hardware.
5G is a huge collection of different standards and technologies falling under one general umbrella.
A few years ago you could have got away with NSA but now you have to support SA and advances for the immediate future (5.5G) and then be ready for 6G.
Realistically speaking Apple needed to be at the table where the standards themselves are thrashed out.
Without a seat at those tables you will always be playing catch up to a certain degree.
They acquired the Intel division plus accumulated patents. You could argue that got them onto the ladder. Climbing it is another story.
The odds of Apple producing a superior product to anything Huawei, Samsung, Qualcomm, Broadcom can produce are limited simply because those companies have decades of accumulated knowhow and resources.
Perhaps 'good enough' is where they are happy to be at the moment in terms of verticality in manufacturing. I think that's a valid aim but it won't free them of patent agreements.
Beyond the modem and antenna designs themselves, the whole thing was a result of a massive strategic goof. The spat with Qualcomm.
When the Intel plan collapsed it really was a Yikes! moment and although we don't know the details of the deal, it's hard to imagine Qualcomm not having the upper hand in negotiations.
It's funny, but I would use your exact same argument against Huawei/HiSilicon/SMIC, which are firmly anchored in pushing older Western tech to its limits, five years behind and attempting to break out. Who do you think is going to be more successful in their endeavors? Huawei/HiSilicon/SMIC or Apple?
And while some have lauded Huawei’s HiSilicon chip design business for beating Apple to the punch with the apparent development of its own 5G modem in China’s Mate 60 Pro, lab tests show that Huawei’s chips consume more power than competitors’ and cause the phone “to heat up” which is bad for performance.
So yeah, modems are hard.
Apple’s custom modem work continues, and Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman suggests we’ll likely see them gradually roll out before the current Qualcomm deal expires in 2026.
Qualcomm may have had the "upper hand" in negotiations, and has recently seen a reprieve, but it in fact Apple that was visionary enough to add long term options to the agreement, just in case. Should Apple deliver their own modem by 2026, or even later, it is due to Apple being able to generate enough revenue and profits to more than afford that considerable R&D effort.
You know, the same company that set the bar for smartphones some 16 years ago, which nobody saw coming.
First point: Huawei (and by a wide margin). Designing a modem and manufacturing the design are two different things and five years is a world away in technology.
Second point: if 'visionary' were even applicable, they would never have found themselves in this predicament in the first place. It was more a case of not having any more cards to play. To Qualcomm it just means one less competitor (and even that term is a stretch) and much more money.
Older western tech?
I hope you realise that NearLink devices are now shipping. LOL!
Apple was first to introduce UWD in a smartphone, and today, I expect every phone to have UWD of some type, but they don't because it isn't as cheap as BT.
Apparently, the secret of NearLink is to use a extremely wide spectrum, of the order of at least 400 MHz (a BT channel has 20 MHz, and a WiFi channel 20 (802.11 b) or 40 MHz.
I wouldn't be surprised of parallel data transfers.
This would be in line with the idea that Huawei wants a sort of "super device" where single devices can be added seamlessly in a modular fashion and sending data at high speeds.
Apple's UWB technology is similar, but proprietary and kept like a Draconian treasure. This led societies to instead release an update the Bluetooth LE, especially for wearables, to improve the data rate.
Of course, Huawei is able to introduce technology at 400 Mhz of bandwidth, in China that may not be allowed in the rest of the world.
You were going off about using 'older western tech' so I gave you the perfect example of the exact opposite. Of course, in a thread on 5G and Huawei being one of the major 5G players, trying to make the point you made was already flat on its face before you hit the 'post' button.
And when you say 'western' I suppose you are trying to squeeze TSMC in which is completely laughable.
On the subject of UWB, that is nothing new. It's been around for decades and Huawei has been using it for years now in industrial settings, so saying NearLink is UWB is saying nothing.
Like saying Apple was first to put UWB in a phone.
NearLink is a wireless implementation with over 300 companies on board. What counts here is what it does and how it does it. For example, it uses polar codes. As for cost, I'm not following you. How could Huawei put it in its newest earbuds if cost was an issue? Btw, those earbuds are taking advantage of NearLink to enable Huawei's latest HD audio codec.
Cost used to be a factor but if a pair of earbuds have it....
Taiwan is a democracy, hence why it is aligned with the West, ie, "Western", which is the EU, U.K., U.S., Canada, Australia, New Zealand, South Korea, and Japan, plus a number of smaller nations. It isn't about geography, nor does Taiwan belong to China due to geography.
As for UWB, All of the iPhones from 11 on, later watches, and of course, AirTags, have UWB, so, easily more than a billion devices.
You failed. Apple is so much a member that the organization is concerned about Apple throwing its weight around, and I did mention that Huawei's modem in the Mate 60 is noted for overheating the phone.
Utter hogwash.
Taiwan is not western because it's a democracy!
TSMC would be selling millions of EUV based chipsets to China if it weren't for sanctions. The minute US technology can be eradicated from tool lines, the restrictions will cease to exist in their current form. The same applies to South Korea.
In fact South Korea has made it clear to the US that too much meddling in its affairs won't be appropriate. It doesn't want to see any drastic movements with regards to China which is a major trading partner.
When that happens the US will double down on the government and bully Taiwan to impose export restrictions. Just like it did with the Dutch government. Very democratic! South Korea will be a hard nut to crack.
I haven't been paying too much attention to the thermals on the Mate 60 series but I haven't heard of issues with the modem. I have heard it gets hot with certain games and after hours of video recording.
FWIW I've also heard that the A17 Pro is overheating while gaming.
Geopolitics you have yet to master.
Funny thing about the U.S. "bullying" its allies; these same allies are dependent on the U.S. as a security guarantor against, you probably won't guess this, the PRC and Russia. So when the U.S. provided THAAD to South Korea, the PRC shit bricks, and essentially banned Samsung and many other products in China. Why? Because THAAD can see deep into Chinese territory from South Korea.
When the U.S. states that it really doesn't want to have Russia or the PLA using the best semiconductors available in weapons systems, or the best AI computing systems, they are quite serious, all because of the military threat of Russia and the PLA.
Note that Turkiye lost its ability to both produce F-35's components, and to purchase F-35's, for their misguided desire to purchase S-400 SAM systems from Russia. FAFO. Turns out that S-400's in Crimea aren't all that great at defending themselves from advanced stealth air to surface missiles.
For a fact, the EU, and the U.S. for that matter, ignored the threats from Russia, and the EU was happy to purchase cheap and plentiful energy, up until Russia decided to invade Ukraine. FAFO. Turns out that Russia, the prime ally of the PRC, isn't really a world class military, and without its nuclear weapons, would be toothless.
Meanwhile, China is poised to completely decimate the EU's auto production, and it would be remarkable if the EU can respond fast enough to prevent a disaster, but at least the EU got the wakeup call. FAFO. Even now, the EU can't wait to make more deals with China.
When the U.S. decides to lobby Japan, and the Netherlands wrt sales of semiconductor fab equipment, it's probably best to go along, because the U.S. does have a shit ton of working IP in that equipment, developed since the late '50's.
And in spite of all that, my point still stands. Exactly as it was.
Korea has made it clear to the US that it doesn't want to have to decide in an either/or situation.
That’s how it got the one year exemption in the first place.
You seem unable to acknowledge that the U.S. does in fact control a large amount of semiconductor IP, yet you are quite happy to post that the U.S. did in fact negotiate an exemption with its partners and allies, and follows up with this extension.
Not sure of the details of your article or when it was dated, since I don't have access, but this link below actually provides the details of the extension to the exiting exemption that the U.S. has negotiated with South Korea;
WASHINGTON -- The U.S. has decided to extend its one-year exemption allowing South Korean and Taiwanese chipmakers to continue bringing advanced semiconductor technology and related equipment into China, multiple industry sources told Nikkei.
The move is seen as potentially undermining U.S. efforts to curb China's ambitions in the tech sector. But it is also expected to prevent widespread disruption in the global semiconductor supply chain.
Alan Estevez, the U.S. undersecretary of commerce for industry and security, had touched on the possibility of an extension during an industry event in June. The duration of the extension has not yet been decided. But a proposal in the administration to make the exemptions indefinite has been floated.
The U.S. last October imposed sweeping restrictions on exports of advanced semiconductors and chipmaking equipment to China. It also banned "U.S. persons" from helping the development or production of chips at Chinese facilities without a license.
Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., which all have major production hubs in China, lobbied against the curbs, claiming they would deal a major blow to business. The U.S. later issued the companies a one-year waiver that allowed them to continue transactions similar to those they had been engaged in before the introduction of the restrictions.
The U.S. plans to extend that exemption, currently set to expire this October, with the same conditions. This would permit South Korean and Taiwanese companies to bring American chipmaking equipment and other key supplies to their facilities in China, allowing production to continue uninterrupted.
Please note that China and Chinese companies are not getting access to that equipment, and the only way they would have access to that equipment, is at some point in the future, to "take it", which would be a very bad idea for China's already slowing economy.
You are wilfully ignoring the point. South Korea has stated it should not be asked to choose.
Here is a quote from the article:
"The more the US sanctions China, the harder China will try to make rapid technological progress. China will provide more national support for the goal. Then it will pose a crisis to South Korea, given China’s abundant talent and raw materials"
That sentiment is also present within the Dutch government. As things stand, sanctions themselves can only be effective if US origin technology is present.
Many industry watchers have consistently stated that de-Americanisation is probably well underway but that design changes can take up to five years to reach the market.
China itself isn't waiting though. As pointed out by a worried South Korea.
This explains the situation with crystal clear clarity:
Anyway. This is about modems so try to keep things to that.
China isn't going to be able to catch up with the West if they haven't mastered the entire supply chain, and without that, it is going to be very expensive to produce even the current Huawei Kirin.
The U.S. isn't going reverse course on this, and they shouldn't, and China isn't going to catch up very fast and that is still only if they spend large amounts of money.
Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC), China’s top contract chip maker, saw both its revenue and net profit extend their fall in the second quarter amid US sanctions and sluggish demand for consumer electronics.
Honor, the smartphone brand that was spun off from Huawei Technologies, clarified on Thursday, September 21, 2023, that it has no plans to develop its own system-on-a-chip (SoC) products. Instead, it will continue using core semiconductors supplied by Taiwan's MediaTek and U.S. tech firm Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM). This information was confirmed by George Zhao Ming, the Shenzhen-based company's chief executive.
Zhao also emphasized Honor's focus on noncore chips such as the C1, a self-developed radio frequency communication device aimed at strengthening 5G signals. The C1 chip was first integrated into Honor's Magic5-series smartphones, which were launched in March.
On Tuesday, Zhao had commented on Honor's strategy after the launch of the V Purse, a unique foldable-smartphone-and-handbag product. The V Purse was first unveiled earlier this month at the annual Internationale Funkaussstellung tech fair in Berlin, Germany. Zhao stated that their cooperation with MediaTek and Qualcomm provides access to the best chip solutions, thus making SoC development unnecessary.
Zhao's comments contrast with those of Eric Xu Zhijun, deputy chairman at Huawei, who recently encouraged China to adopt more home-developed semiconductors despite their current technological lag compared to foreign-made chips. He believes increased support would eventually close this gap.
This week, Honor also addressed speculation about its research-and-development subsidiary, Shanghai Honor Intelligent Technology Development Co. The subsidiary saw its capital base expanded from 100 million yuan to 940 million yuan earlier this month, sparking rumors about an increased focus on in-house chip design. However, Honor clarified that the Shanghai entity is primarily focused on software, graphics algorithms, and communications and imaging research.
In other news related to Honor's market position, data from IDC showed that Huawei returned as one of the top-ranked vendors in mainland China's smartphone market in the second quarter. However, Oppo, Vivo, Honor and Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) remained ahead of Huawei. Globally, Honor has seen growth in markets across Europe, the Middle East and Latin America, according to Counterpoint Research data. Despite this growth, Honor did not make it into the top-five smartphone vendor rankings for the second quarter.
Whatever happens, I doubt very much that the "West" is going to invest or expand in China, and as supply chains move out, there will be less demand for China's products.
To the contrary of what some people claimed, it was never going to be easy. Not in software or in hardware.
5G is a huge collection of different standards and technologies falling under one general umbrella.
A few years ago you could have got away with NSA but now you have to support SA and advances for the immediate future (5.5G) and then be ready for 6G.
Realistically speaking Apple needed to be at the table where the standards themselves are thrashed out.
Without a seat at those tables you will always be playing catch up to a certain degree.
They acquired the Intel division plus accumulated patents. You could argue that got them onto the ladder. Climbing it is another story.
The odds of Apple producing a superior product to anything Huawei, Samsung, Qualcomm, Broadcom can produce are limited simply because those companies have decades of accumulated knowhow and resources.
Perhaps 'good enough' is where they are happy to be at the moment in terms of verticality in manufacturing. I think that's a valid aim but it won't free them of patent agreements.
Beyond the modem and antenna designs themselves, the whole thing was a result of a massive strategic goof. The spat with Qualcomm.
When the Intel plan collapsed it really was a Yikes! moment and although we don't know the details of the deal, it's hard to imagine Qualcomm not having the upper hand in negotiations.
It's funny, but I would use your exact same argument against Huawei/HiSilicon/SMIC, which are firmly anchored in pushing older Western tech to its limits, five years behind and attempting to break out. Who do you think is going to be more successful in their endeavors? Huawei/HiSilicon/SMIC or Apple?
And while some have lauded Huawei’s HiSilicon chip design business for beating Apple to the punch with the apparent development of its own 5G modem in China’s Mate 60 Pro, lab tests show that Huawei’s chips consume more power than competitors’ and cause the phone “to heat up” which is bad for performance.
So yeah, modems are hard.
Apple’s custom modem work continues, and Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman suggests we’ll likely see them gradually roll out before the current Qualcomm deal expires in 2026.
Qualcomm may have had the "upper hand" in negotiations, and has recently seen a reprieve, but it in fact Apple that was visionary enough to add long term options to the agreement, just in case. Should Apple deliver their own modem by 2026, or even later, it is due to Apple being able to generate enough revenue and profits to more than afford that considerable R&D effort.
You know, the same company that set the bar for smartphones some 16 years ago, which nobody saw coming.
First point: Huawei (and by a wide margin). Designing a modem and manufacturing the design are two different things and five years is a world away in technology.
Second point: if 'visionary' were even applicable, they would never have found themselves in this predicament in the first place. It was more a case of not having any more cards to play. To Qualcomm it just means one less competitor (and even that term is a stretch) and much more money.
Older western tech?
I hope you realise that NearLink devices are now shipping. LOL!
Apple was first to introduce UWD in a smartphone, and today, I expect every phone to have UWD of some type, but they don't because it isn't as cheap as BT.
Apparently, the secret of NearLink is to use a extremely wide spectrum, of the order of at least 400 MHz (a BT channel has 20 MHz, and a WiFi channel 20 (802.11 b) or 40 MHz.
I wouldn't be surprised of parallel data transfers.
This would be in line with the idea that Huawei wants a sort of "super device" where single devices can be added seamlessly in a modular fashion and sending data at high speeds.
Apple's UWB technology is similar, but proprietary and kept like a Draconian treasure. This led societies to instead release an update the Bluetooth LE, especially for wearables, to improve the data rate.
Of course, Huawei is able to introduce technology at 400 Mhz of bandwidth, in China that may not be allowed in the rest of the world.
You were going off about using 'older western tech' so I gave you the perfect example of the exact opposite. Of course, in a thread on 5G and Huawei being one of the major 5G players, trying to make the point you made was already flat on its face before you hit the 'post' button.
And when you say 'western' I suppose you are trying to squeeze TSMC in which is completely laughable.
On the subject of UWB, that is nothing new. It's been around for decades and Huawei has been using it for years now in industrial settings, so saying NearLink is UWB is saying nothing.
Like saying Apple was first to put UWB in a phone.
NearLink is a wireless implementation with over 300 companies on board. What counts here is what it does and how it does it. For example, it uses polar codes. As for cost, I'm not following you. How could Huawei put it in its newest earbuds if cost was an issue? Btw, those earbuds are taking advantage of NearLink to enable Huawei's latest HD audio codec.
Cost used to be a factor but if a pair of earbuds have it....
Taiwan is a democracy, hence why it is aligned with the West, ie, "Western", which is the EU, U.K., U.S., Canada, Australia, New Zealand, South Korea, and Japan, plus a number of smaller nations. It isn't about geography, nor does Taiwan belong to China due to geography.
As for UWB, All of the iPhones from 11 on, later watches, and of course, AirTags, have UWB, so, easily more than a billion devices.
You failed. Apple is so much a member that the organization is concerned about Apple throwing its weight around, and I did mention that Huawei's modem in the Mate 60 is noted for overheating the phone.
Utter hogwash.
Taiwan is not western because it's a democracy!
TSMC would be selling millions of EUV based chipsets to China if it weren't for sanctions. The minute US technology can be eradicated from tool lines, the restrictions will cease to exist in their current form. The same applies to South Korea.
In fact South Korea has made it clear to the US that too much meddling in its affairs won't be appropriate. It doesn't want to see any drastic movements with regards to China which is a major trading partner.
When that happens the US will double down on the government and bully Taiwan to impose export restrictions. Just like it did with the Dutch government. Very democratic! South Korea will be a hard nut to crack.
I haven't been paying too much attention to the thermals on the Mate 60 series but I haven't heard of issues with the modem. I have heard it gets hot with certain games and after hours of video recording.
FWIW I've also heard that the A17 Pro is overheating while gaming.
Geopolitics you have yet to master.
Funny thing about the U.S. "bullying" its allies; these same allies are dependent on the U.S. as a security guarantor against, you probably won't guess this, the PRC and Russia. So when the U.S. provided THAAD to South Korea, the PRC shit bricks, and essentially banned Samsung and many other products in China. Why? Because THAAD can see deep into Chinese territory from South Korea.
When the U.S. states that it really doesn't want to have Russia or the PLA using the best semiconductors available in weapons systems, or the best AI computing systems, they are quite serious, all because of the military threat of Russia and the PLA.
Note that Turkiye lost its ability to both produce F-35's components, and to purchase F-35's, for their misguided desire to purchase S-400 SAM systems from Russia. FAFO. Turns out that S-400's in Crimea aren't all that great at defending themselves from advanced stealth air to surface missiles.
For a fact, the EU, and the U.S. for that matter, ignored the threats from Russia, and the EU was happy to purchase cheap and plentiful energy, up until Russia decided to invade Ukraine. FAFO. Turns out that Russia, the prime ally of the PRC, isn't really a world class military, and without its nuclear weapons, would be toothless.
Meanwhile, China is poised to completely decimate the EU's auto production, and it would be remarkable if the EU can respond fast enough to prevent a disaster, but at least the EU got the wakeup call. FAFO. Even now, the EU can't wait to make more deals with China.
When the U.S. decides to lobby Japan, and the Netherlands wrt sales of semiconductor fab equipment, it's probably best to go along, because the U.S. does have a shit ton of working IP in that equipment, developed since the late '50's.
And in spite of all that, my point still stands. Exactly as it was.
Korea has made it clear to the US that it doesn't want to have to decide in an either/or situation.
That’s how it got the one year exemption in the first place.
You seem unable to acknowledge that the U.S. does in fact control a large amount of semiconductor IP, yet you are quite happy to post that the U.S. did in fact negotiate an exemption with its partners and allies, and follows up with this extension.
Not sure of the details of your article or when it was dated, since I don't have access, but this link below actually provides the details of the extension to the exiting exemption that the U.S. has negotiated with South Korea;
WASHINGTON -- The U.S. has decided to extend its one-year exemption allowing South Korean and Taiwanese chipmakers to continue bringing advanced semiconductor technology and related equipment into China, multiple industry sources told Nikkei.
The move is seen as potentially undermining U.S. efforts to curb China's ambitions in the tech sector. But it is also expected to prevent widespread disruption in the global semiconductor supply chain.
Alan Estevez, the U.S. undersecretary of commerce for industry and security, had touched on the possibility of an extension during an industry event in June. The duration of the extension has not yet been decided. But a proposal in the administration to make the exemptions indefinite has been floated.
The U.S. last October imposed sweeping restrictions on exports of advanced semiconductors and chipmaking equipment to China. It also banned "U.S. persons" from helping the development or production of chips at Chinese facilities without a license.
Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., which all have major production hubs in China, lobbied against the curbs, claiming they would deal a major blow to business. The U.S. later issued the companies a one-year waiver that allowed them to continue transactions similar to those they had been engaged in before the introduction of the restrictions.
The U.S. plans to extend that exemption, currently set to expire this October, with the same conditions. This would permit South Korean and Taiwanese companies to bring American chipmaking equipment and other key supplies to their facilities in China, allowing production to continue uninterrupted.
Please note that China and Chinese companies are not getting access to that equipment, and the only way they would have access to that equipment, is at some point in the future, to "take it", which would be a very bad idea for China's already slowing economy.
You are wilfully ignoring the point. South Korea has stated it should not be asked to choose.
Here is a quote from the article:
"The more the US sanctions China, the harder China will try to make rapid technological progress. China will provide more national support for the goal. Then it will pose a crisis to South Korea, given China’s abundant talent and raw materials"
That sentiment is also present within the Dutch government. As things stand, sanctions themselves can only be effective if US origin technology is present.
Many industry watchers have consistently stated that de-Americanisation is probably well underway but that design changes can take up to five years to reach the market.
China itself isn't waiting though. As pointed out by a worried South Korea.
This explains the situation with crystal clear clarity:
Anyway. This is about modems so try to keep things to that.
China isn't going to be able to catch up with the West if they haven't mastered the entire supply chain, and without that, it is going to be very expensive to produce even the current Huawei Kirin.
The U.S. isn't going reverse course on this, and they shouldn't, and China isn't going to catch up very fast and that is still only if they spend large amounts of money.
Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC), China’s top contract chip maker, saw both its revenue and net profit extend their fall in the second quarter amid US sanctions and sluggish demand for consumer electronics.
Honor, the smartphone brand that was spun off from Huawei Technologies, clarified on Thursday, September 21, 2023, that it has no plans to develop its own system-on-a-chip (SoC) products. Instead, it will continue using core semiconductors supplied by Taiwan's MediaTek and U.S. tech firm Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM). This information was confirmed by George Zhao Ming, the Shenzhen-based company's chief executive.
Zhao also emphasized Honor's focus on noncore chips such as the C1, a self-developed radio frequency communication device aimed at strengthening 5G signals. The C1 chip was first integrated into Honor's Magic5-series smartphones, which were launched in March.
On Tuesday, Zhao had commented on Honor's strategy after the launch of the V Purse, a unique foldable-smartphone-and-handbag product. The V Purse was first unveiled earlier this month at the annual Internationale Funkaussstellung tech fair in Berlin, Germany. Zhao stated that their cooperation with MediaTek and Qualcomm provides access to the best chip solutions, thus making SoC development unnecessary.
Zhao's comments contrast with those of Eric Xu Zhijun, deputy chairman at Huawei, who recently encouraged China to adopt more home-developed semiconductors despite their current technological lag compared to foreign-made chips. He believes increased support would eventually close this gap.
This week, Honor also addressed speculation about its research-and-development subsidiary, Shanghai Honor Intelligent Technology Development Co. The subsidiary saw its capital base expanded from 100 million yuan to 940 million yuan earlier this month, sparking rumors about an increased focus on in-house chip design. However, Honor clarified that the Shanghai entity is primarily focused on software, graphics algorithms, and communications and imaging research.
In other news related to Honor's market position, data from IDC showed that Huawei returned as one of the top-ranked vendors in mainland China's smartphone market in the second quarter. However, Oppo, Vivo, Honor and Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) remained ahead of Huawei. Globally, Honor has seen growth in markets across Europe, the Middle East and Latin America, according to Counterpoint Research data. Despite this growth, Honor did not make it into the top-five smartphone vendor rankings for the second quarter.
Whatever happens, I doubt very much that the "West" is going to invest or expand in China, and as supply chains move out, there will be less demand for China's products.
Honor would never say they will reunite with Huawei. Surely you can understand why.
But if you look at both companies' products you should be able to see what is going on - in plain sight!
As for China 'catching up' you would be a fool to bet against it. It might even leapfrog current technologies. The only question is time but it will be far sooner than you think.
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As for UWB, All of the iPhones from 11 on, later watches, and of course, AirTags, have UWB, so, easily more than a billion devices.
You failed. Apple is so much a member that the organization is concerned about Apple throwing its weight around, and I did mention that Huawei's modem in the Mate 60 is noted for overheating the phone.
Taiwan is not western because it's a democracy!
TSMC would be selling millions of EUV based chipsets to China if it weren't for sanctions. The minute US technology can be eradicated from tool lines, the restrictions will cease to exist in their current form. The same applies to South Korea.
In fact South Korea has made it clear to the US that too much meddling in its affairs won't be appropriate. It doesn't want to see any drastic movements with regards to China which is a major trading partner.
When that happens the US will double down on the government and bully Taiwan to impose export restrictions. Just like it did with the Dutch government. Very democratic! South Korea will be a hard nut to crack.
I haven't been paying too much attention to the thermals on the Mate 60 series but I haven't heard of issues with the modem. I have heard it gets hot with certain games and after hours of video recording.
FWIW I've also heard that the A17 Pro is overheating while gaming.
PowerPC was an 'alliance' (AIM) Apple, IBM, Motorola). There were lots of issues but one of them was ironic. Apple was pushing for power but the biggest market for PPC was low power embedded chips. Motorola was behind that. At the 'power' end IBM had, well, POWER. Apple was in between but not really selling enough to warrant the resources. What came out was good for a time and actually less power intensive than rivals in the PC space but then things fell apart with chips getting too hot and newrt chips getting delayed. The rest is history.
If Apple came back from the dead it was more luck than anything else. The iMac was certainly key but there is no getting around the fact that it could have failed just as easily as it succeeded. On the software side, the deal with the devil (Microsoft) was also key.
The MOUSE. Apple didn't invent the mouse. However, it did develop possibly one of the worst examples of a modern mouse: The hockey puck! And they stubbornly stuck with it and it's single button for too long.
The music industry. They got it wrong. The industry moved to streaming which is exactly what Apple thought was not a great idea. "People want to own their music" - Steve Jobs 2007. They were very late to the streaming party and had to make the service available outside the walled garden.
Firewire. Amazing product for its time. So much potential. In the end they screwed it all up through stubbornly trying to monetise it too much. So many projects were lined up but failed due to Apple's arrogance. HANA, LISSA... Such a shame.
And while they were screwing that up they stubbornly refused to use USB 2.0.
Thunderbolt. As you say, a collaborative effort. Not only Apple.
Video. You would be a fool to put all your video eggs in Apple’s basket.
I'm not sure how you managed to link that point to succeeding in getting a modem out the door, but getting a modem out the door isn't really the question. It's whether it will be competitive. As I said though, if it is for verticality I can see why they might want to do that.
I'd say a competitive 5G modem from a smaller company definitely is insurmountable.
Apple cannot avoid paying Qualcomm and Huawei patent fees for 5G. I can't see any way to avoid jumping through that hoop.
Funny thing about the U.S. "bullying" its allies; these same allies are dependent on the U.S. as a security guarantor against, you probably won't guess this, the PRC and Russia. So when the U.S. provided THAAD to South Korea, the PRC shit bricks, and essentially banned Samsung and many other products in China. Why? Because THAAD can see deep into Chinese territory from South Korea.
https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-11-19/south-korea-china-beijing-economy-thaad-missile-interceptor
When the U.S. states that it really doesn't want to have Russia or the PLA using the best semiconductors available in weapons systems, or the best AI computing systems, they are quite serious, all because of the military threat of Russia and the PLA.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/21/china-poses-biggest-threat-to-global-security-says-sunak
Note that Turkiye lost its ability to both produce F-35's components, and to purchase F-35's, for their misguided desire to purchase S-400 SAM systems from Russia. FAFO. Turns out that S-400's in Crimea aren't all that great at defending themselves from advanced stealth air to surface missiles.
https://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/2019/turkey-the-s400-and-the-f35
For a fact, the EU, and the U.S. for that matter, ignored the threats from Russia, and the EU was happy to purchase cheap and plentiful energy, up until Russia decided to invade Ukraine. FAFO. Turns out that Russia, the prime ally of the PRC, isn't really a world class military, and without its nuclear weapons, would be toothless.
Meanwhile, China is poised to completely decimate the EU's auto production, and it would be remarkable if the EU can respond fast enough to prevent a disaster, but at least the EU got the wakeup call. FAFO. Even now, the EU can't wait to make more deals with China.
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/06/chinese-evs-are-now-seen-posing-a-real-threat-to-europes-auto-industry.html
When the U.S. decides to lobby Japan, and the Netherlands wrt sales of semiconductor fab equipment, it's probably best to go along, because the U.S. does have a shit ton of working IP in that equipment, developed since the late '50's.
R&D spending isn’t wasting money. It’s spending to discover and develop. People get paid to do their jobs and stuff costs money to buy. Then time is spent figuring it out. That’s how you arrive at a viable product. At least think a little before posting. And Apple isn’t limited to developing a 5g modem. 5g has been doing its thing, but it won’t be the gold standard for very long. Time is shortening between standards. It took 10 years between 3g and 4g. Then 7 years between 4g and 5g. With Apple a known standards creator and collaborator, it could be Apple receiving royalties from future standards. A lot on the table here, actually. A better way than designing around patents for a current product is to design beyond them for the next big thing.
If your projects don't lead to fruits, you are in trouble.
Time is shortening between rollouts, at the moment. The key here being rollouts, not development. It took around ten years to bake 5G (2009-2019). It will take just as long to bake 6G (2020-2030).
Rollouts are entirely dependant on carriers who, when they are cash strapped, will take longer to make technology available. After all, before they can upgrade their equipment they need it to have generated enough revenues to cover the initial outlay. They also need to purchase spectrum from their governments.
Korea has made it clear to the US that it doesn't want to have to decide in an either/or situation.
That’s how it got the one year exemption in the first place.
https://www.ft.com/content/26770ab3-f71c-4f39-8569-273a12ffb7b0
Not sure of the details of your article or when it was dated, since I don't have access, but this link below actually provides the details of the extension to the exiting exemption that the U.S. has negotiated with South Korea;
https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Tech/Semiconductors/U.S.-to-extend-China-chip-export-waivers-for-Taiwan-Korea-chipmakers
August 24, 2023
Please note that China and Chinese companies are not getting access to that equipment, and the only way they would have access to that equipment, is at some point in the future, to "take it", which would be a very bad idea for China's already slowing economy.
Here is a quote from the article:
"The more the US sanctions China, the harder China will try to make rapid technological progress. China will provide more national support for the goal. Then it will pose a crisis to South Korea, given China’s abundant talent and raw materials"
That sentiment is also present within the Dutch government. As things stand, sanctions themselves can only be effective if US origin technology is present.
Many industry watchers have consistently stated that de-Americanisation is probably well underway but that design changes can take up to five years to reach the market.
China itself isn't waiting though. As pointed out by a worried South Korea.
This explains the situation with crystal clear clarity:
https://fortune.com/2023/09/18/us-china-trade-war-counterproductiveand-huawei-p60-chip-unforeseen-ramifications-ben-harburg/
Anyway. This is about modems so try to keep things to that.
The U.S. isn't going reverse course on this, and they shouldn't, and China isn't going to catch up very fast and that is still only if they spend large amounts of money.
https://www.scmp.com/tech/big-tech/article/3230818/chinas-top-chip-foundry-smic-reports-lower-revenue-and-profit-us-sanctions-continue-bite-amid
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/honor-remains-committed-mediatek-qualcomm-105317349.html
Whatever happens, I doubt very much that the "West" is going to invest or expand in China, and as supply chains move out, there will be less demand for China's products.
But if you look at both companies' products you should be able to see what is going on - in plain sight!
As for China 'catching up' you would be a fool to bet against it. It might even leapfrog current technologies. The only question is time but it will be far sooner than you think.
https://asiatimes.com/2023/09/china-building-euv-lithographic-cannon-for-chip-war/
https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20230921PD214/yangtze-memory-technology-export-restrictions-nand-flash.html
None of this is about modems, though so please change track.