Ming-Chi Kuo predicts a dim future for Apple Vision Pro

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Comments

  • Reply 21 of 28
    I spent $5700 on a 65” SONY A95K QD-OLED TV along with their wireless Dolby Atmos quad sound system last year. 65” is the largest size screen I can fit in my viewing room/office. AVP seems like the only way I’m going to be able to experience a larger screen size in my confined space. But I’m still not convinced I want or need one. I definitely won’t want one without an M3 processor.
    byronl
  • Reply 22 of 28
    There is no way they sell as many as 400-600 thousand. Not a chance.
  • Reply 23 of 28
    dewme said:
    twolf2919 said:
    Kuo has absolutely no business insight into Apple strategy, pricing discussion, or decision-making. He only has leaking supply chain contacts. There’s zero way he can know what Apple is thinking strategically years in the future.
    Correction: he's got supply chain insights/contacts *and* common sense.  The latter alone enables anyone to forecast dismal sales for a $3500 toy with no mass market use case- no matter how good the experience.
    ???? Ever looked at 4K OLED TV prices for larger sizes like 77" or higher? It's pretty obvious that there are people who will spend $3500 or more on a higher end TV experience.
    Since when did Apple start going after mass market use cases?  Apple has never gone after capturing the mass market with any of their products. They aren't trying to sell something that appeals to everyone, especially those consumers with a high degree of price sensitivity. Those consumers are being very well served by many other product vendors who collectively capture much more market share than Apple does. 

    Apple's focus is on delivering highly innovative, premium products for consumers who value the qualities that Apple's products deliver. This approach has allowed Apple to maintaining extraordinary levels of customer satisfaction and brand loyalty. Being able to rake in abundant profits in the premium segment of the market has been very good for Apple's bottom line. I don't see that changing anytime soon.

    The target price of the Vision Pro very much reinforces Apple's long standing go-to-market philosophy.  Apple knows going in that there won't be a Vision Pro landing in every household, business office, or development studio. Where it does land, however, I don't think there will be a lot of consternation about its price.
    You seem to be confusing mass market appeal with marketshare standings. Apple doesn't set out to be the number one maker of a widget but they still very much shoot for mass appeal for their flagship products  and will happily drop the ones that don't achieve it. iPod, iPhone, iPad, Apple Watch and Mac are all examples of products where Apple targets mass markets and in three of those they also hit number one in marketshare globally. 


    And in all of those, they routinely drop models that a few people may have liked but failed to generate mass appeal.
  • Reply 24 of 28
    XedXed Posts: 2,471member
    There is no way they sell as many as 400-600 thousand. Not a chance.
    What is your detailed reasoning for this hypothesis?
    watto_cobrabyronl
  • Reply 25 of 28
    thttht Posts: 5,353member
    Bah, Kuo's comments and AI's rendition of it is just your typical clickbaiting trying to make some controversy out of nothing new.

    The only solid supply chain datum we've heard is that Sony will only be able to make 1m microOLED displays for Apple in 2024, which then translates to 500k units because you need two for every VP set. Even this is a bunch of horseshit. The rumor was that Sony refused to make more, and even within that rumor set, it stated Apple was looking for 2nd source suppliers for the microOLEDs.

    Even with Sony, their stance is transactional if indeed Sony refused to make more. It will boil down to money. If the VP proves to be a hot product, Apple will get Sony to increase production and to get their 2nd source supplier to move faster. So, what were the rumored limits in 2023 become irrelevant in 2024, resulting in much more supply in 2025.

    Then, I wouldn't believe any prognostication regarding this product line 2 years out let alone 4 years. We don't even believe any prognostications for solid and staid products like iPhones and Macs 2 years out. Plans will change within the first month of VP sales. If the product proves popular, Apple will change their plans to include cheaper models, new models, etc, do what would be the best course of action for the Vision platform.

    Or remember the Apple Watch, where analysts were saying the product failed after a year or three that it shipped?

    Heck, if the price is too high, they will decrease the price. They only have about a $700 range though. Maybe $2500 is breakeven?
    watto_cobrabyronl
  • Reply 26 of 28
    thttht Posts: 5,353member
    macxpress said:
    I don't think Apple meant for this to initially be a mass market device right off. I think they purposely priced it high so they didn't sell as many because they know it's going to be a pain in the ass to produce. This will take time to be successful. iPhone wasn't incredibly successful right away either. Patience people, patience. Apple always has a plan when releasing these things. 
    I think the price of the VP is the minimum price for the spatial computer they want to make. The price likely includes something like 10% to 20% gross margins, after something like hundreds of thousands of units sold. It basically 2 iPhone Pro Max devices, but with 3x the pixels at something like 3000 ppi, a set of soft fabrics and a crazy new form factor. Isn't cheap.

    If they wanted sell something for say $2000, you end up with a unsatisfactory device, like with a lower resolution display set, less cameras, less features, etc, and wouldn't meet what they feel is the minimum viable set of features and performance.

    You don't need to be a genius to say the VP won't have a lot units sold, especially relative to the iPhone. It's obvious based on price and what the VP is. It's spatial computer. Or think of it as a 2 Macbook Air laptops, with a superset functionality, capable of being a TV, a tablet, a laptop, a desktop, so on and so forth. It's not a neat little widget that goes into a pocket, and will necessarily sell less units.

    Btw, if Kuo wants to present as a genius, tell us the unit sales numbers for 2024, 2025, and 2026. No points for generic suppositions.
    watto_cobra
  • Reply 27 of 28
    XedXed Posts: 2,471member
    tht said:
    macxpress said:
    I don't think Apple meant for this to initially be a mass market device right off. I think they purposely priced it high so they didn't sell as many because they know it's going to be a pain in the ass to produce. This will take time to be successful. iPhone wasn't incredibly successful right away either. Patience people, patience. Apple always has a plan when releasing these things. 
    I think the price of the VP is the minimum price for the spatial computer they want to make. The price likely includes something like 10% to 20% gross margins, after something like hundreds of thousands of units sold. It basically 2 iPhone Pro Max devices, but with 3x the pixels at something like 3000 ppi, a set of soft fabrics and a crazy new form factor. Isn't cheap.

    If they wanted sell something for say $2000, you end up with a unsatisfactory device, like with a lower resolution display set, less cameras, less features, etc, and wouldn't meet what they feel is the minimum viable set of features and performance.

    You don't need to be a genius to say the VP won't have a lot units sold, especially relative to the iPhone. It's obvious based on price and what the VP is. It's spatial computer. Or think of it as a 2 Macbook Air laptops, with a superset functionality, capable of being a TV, a tablet, a laptop, a desktop, so on and so forth. It's not a neat little widget that goes into a pocket, and will necessarily sell less units.

    Btw, if Kuo wants to present as a genius, tell us the unit sales numbers for 2024, 2025, and 2026. No points for generic suppositions.
    Between social media personalities wanting to get the most views, developers who want to see what they can do with the new tools, and people with too much money who want a "me first" device, I don't think a few hundred thousand units around the world is an extreme expectation. After the first couple years we'll likely see an Apple Vision (hence this being called Pro) where Apple refines certain elements to be cheaper as they are more easily mass produced which will lead to more sales. Hopefully by then the SW makes it a must have.

    For perceptive, Quest has sold 20 million units of its sub-par VR-only headset, so the market is clearly there.
    watto_cobra
  • Reply 28 of 28

    twolf2919 said:
    Kuo has absolutely no business insight into Apple strategy, pricing discussion, or decision-making. He only has leaking supply chain contacts. There’s zero way he can know what Apple is thinking strategically years in the future.
    Correction: he's got supply chain insights/contacts *and* common sense.  The latter alone enables anyone to forecast dismal sales for a $3500 toy with no mass market use case- no matter how good the experience.
    ???? Ever looked at 4K OLED TV prices for larger sizes like 77" or higher? It's pretty obvious that there are people who will spend $3500 or more on a higher end TV experience.
    Large TVs allow multiple people to sit and watch one screen.
    Sure. But if you pay $3500-$4,000 for a 77 inch 4K OLED then that's all that you're getting. If you want something bigger you'll have to spend additional thousands of dollars. AVP gives you movie theater to drive-in theater sized screens if you want. 
    No it doesn't. It gives you a totally isolated environment where you can only enjoy content by yourself. How many people go to movies and drive ins by themselves?
    muthuk_vanalingam
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