Ming-Chi Kuo flip-flops, now expects new M3 MacBook Pro in October

AppleInsider

Ming-Chi Kuo has changed his mind about MacBook Pro updates, forecasting historically tight supplies for new models until the first quarter of 2024.

MacBook Pro

Famed Apple-centric analyst Ming-Chi Kuo has been a major supporter of rumors that Apple won't be coming out with new Mac models before the end of the year. Now, with the prospect of an event in a week's time with heavy hinting at Mac-related activity, the analyst has changed his tune.

"I believe M3 series MacBook Pro will be October 30th media event's focus," tweets Kuo on X shortly after Apple's event announcement. He also admits to having "previously predicted a launch this year is unlikely," citing limited fourth-quarter shipments.

I believe M3 series MacBook Pro will be Oct 30th media event's focus. I previously predicted a launch this year is unlikely due to limited 4Q23 shipments (less than 400-500k units in total). If new MBPs launch in Nov-Dec, tight supply will last into 1Q24 unless demand weakens. pic.twitter.com/R6tVIYyQop

-- (Ming-Chi Kuo) (@mingchikuo)

October 24, 2023

Kuo's numbers put the shipments of MacBook Pro units to "less than 400-500k units in total" for the quarter. Even on the high-end of Kuo's prediction, this is less than one-third of the available units for the previous MacBook Pro debuts.

It's also been only 10 months since the last refresh of the flagship MacBook Pro line. There were 15 months between the M1 14- and 16-inch MacBook Pro models, and the corresponding M2 versions.

As such, Kuo warns that if there are new MacBook Pro models, the "tight supply will last into 1Q24 unless demand weakens."

Kuo's tweet just discusses Macs, most likely because of Apple's hinting. However, he has made similar claims about iPads, saying in September it is "unlikely" that any updates will surface for the product line before the end of 2023.

Kuo has yet to comment on iPads since the event's announcement.

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apple4thewin

Of course he did 

mobird

Probably spit his morning tea/coffee out all over his Apple device's screen when he read the Apple announcement!!...

edited October 2023

sbdude

The infallible Ming-Chi Kuo gets egg on his face! Is this a sign of what's to come?

libertyandfree

 Wow he is single handily ruining his own reputation.  So he covered his bases either way or another way to look at it, he already confirmed he is wrong. 

edited October 2023

skeptical

This is why you don’t take anything serious on this site. 

tht

sbdude said:

The infallible Ming-Chi Kuo gets egg on his face! Is this a sign of what's to come?

He's been posting too regularly. As I recall, he'd post this or that Apple note once every month or couple of months before he quit that investment company he was working for. In the past couple of years, there are times he posts once a week, with a lot more speculation of Apple's motivations. Once anyone starts doing the daily or weekly rumors, it's all but inevitable that they will get things wrong.

Gurman knows not to overexpose himself, and he saves rumors for rainy weeks when he doesn't have anything. He has material for weeks and weeks of rumor notes, and choose pretty carefully when and which to publish. He also dribbles the rumors or regurgitates rumors and just add one little detail too.

afarstar

Kuo doesn’t know jack-shit. 

applezulu

libertyandfree said:

 Wow he is single handily ruining his own reputation.  So he covered his bases either way or another way to look at it, he already confirmed he is wrong. 

No, I think you misunderstand. Kuo frequently revises his predictions, particularly as an announcement nears. This isn't usually an acknowledgment that he was wrong before. Quite the opposite. This way his final prediction shortly before an announcement is often correct, and all the rumor sites usually give him credit for that, while forgetting the many prior incorrect or partially correct pronouncements on a given thing. This then enables the laudatory kudos like "oft correct," "better than average," "more reliable than others" that get attached to his name (as if by contract) in these articles.

That said, I have to give props to AI writer Malcolm Owen for only calling Kuo "famed" in this article, as well as using the term "flip flops" in the headline. I've been kind of weirded out over the years by the less-than-organic use of honorifics when citing Kuo on the various Apple rumor sites, so it's a pleasant surprise to see the honesty applied here today.

edited October 2023

xed

A 6 day lead on a "rumor" after Apple makes an announcement. I know AI like to post about this guy and will defend his accuracy rating, but it's not really hard to do when you change your answer after the reveal begins.

geomac25

So the great Kuo, is not always on target…He has had an incredible string of correct predictions…. But, not this time. This Event, will be Interesting, Apple, is doing it “different “ this time around 

edited October 2023

kiowavt

Prediction this is not.  It is instead a new item he is sharing, the obvious. His crystal ball suddenly saw Apple’s mighty clear announcement did not line up and fixed that. He is suddenly a reporter, not a predictor. I could be an analyst in this case.  

zigzaglens

Wouldn't that just be a flip? A flip-flop is like a 360, where you're back to your original position.

edited October 2023

9secondkox2

Silly floppy-floppy Ming-chi! 

edited October 2023

applezulu

geomac25 said:

So the great Kuo, is not always on target…He has had an incredible string of correct predictions…. But, not this time. This Event, will be Interesting, Apple, is doing it “different “ this time around 

The phrase “an incredible string of correct predictions” implies Kuo made one correct prediction after another, but the reality is that he’s made some intermittent correct predictions, often with actual strings of incorrect predictions about the same subject, leading up to the “correct” one shortly before an actual reveal by Apple. 

One imagines the constant hyping of the “great” Kuo’s reputation has created lucrative arrangements for him, but that hype seems unsupported by the record. 

No doubt industrial espionage aimed at such a secretive company as Apple is challenging, and no one should expect any “analyst” to suss things out correctly all the time. As such, Kuo shouldn’t be criticized so much for getting some things wrong. The criticism is really more about the obviously manipulated claims that Kuo’s track record is way better than it actually is. Such claims are particularly cringe-worthy at times like this, when Kuo issues yet another reversal after Apple heavily hints at an impending announcement that does not comport with Kuo’s previous predictions. 

pulseimages

He’s a pathological flip-flopper!