No Apple Watch Ultra 3 in development, says Kuo
Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo claims that Apple has not begun developing a third generation of the Apple Watch Ultra, and so it's unlikely it will release one in 2024.

Apple Watch Ultra 2
Apple made no visible changes to the Apple Watch Ultra when it unveiled a second-edition in 2023, but arguably it didn't have to. Apple Watch Ultra 2 is faster than its predecessor, though, plus it has a brighter screen and -- now with watchOS 10.1watchOS 10 -- it has Double Tap.
According to Ming-Chi Kuo, though, there is as yet no development work being done for what would presumably be called the Apple Watch Ultra 3.
"As of now, Apple has yet to kick off the Apple Watch Ultra 3 development officially," he reported on his blog. "It is unusual given the product development schedule."
"If Apple doesn't officially kick off the Apple Watch Ultra 3 project by December, it's almost confirmed that we won't see a new Apple Watch Ultra in 2024," he continued.
Kuo's reports tend now to be a mix of supply chain information and extrapolation based on his experience covering Apple. It's not clear how certain the lack of development is, but Kuo is surmising that he knows the reason.
"I think Apple hasn't officially kicked off Apple Watch Ultra 3 project," he said, "because it needs more time to develop innovative health management features, ensure the manufacturability of new features, and address issues related to Micro LED production."
However, Kuo also predicts that the lack of an updated 2024 Apple Watch Ultra will hurt sales. He says that unless there is an update, "shipments of the Apple Watch Ultra are expected to decline by 20--30% YoY in 2024, and the total Apple Watch shipments will decline by 10% YoY in 2024 to about 35 million units."
Kuo's reports and predictions back up a recent leak suggesting that the next Apple Watch Ultra would be released in 2025. That rumor specifically said that the next update would feature a microLED screen.
With a microLED screen, the Watch's display recent leak">could be up to 30 times brighter than the current OLED. At the same time, it would be more power efficient, and so help the Apple Watch Ultra's battery life.
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Comments
There's your "need" for an update right there--at least when you're a publicly owned, for profit company that's in the business of selling people more stuff. Welcome to capitalism.
Me I wish Apple would focus on the regular series of watch on maybe make them a tiny bit thicker for more battery life that's a trade off I'd make. Then continue working on new sensors to increase the health benefits of the Apple watch. That may not be flashy but it would be of value to all owners of Apple watches.
I think the Apple Watch has largely transcended its status symbol role. It's become ubiquitous and an archetype. I see them everywhere and on everyone. It's the Timex or Casio of the current generation, at least for those folks who still wear watches for functional reasons. Unfortunately, there are a lot of Apple Watch lookalikes out there now too, so there's a high level of chaff to deal with.
I totally understand your "billboard for Apple" point, which is actually very positive for brand recognition across many Apple products. The glowing Apple logo on the lid of Apple MacBooks was an epic branding win for Apple. There was nothing quite as awesome as seeing a sea of glowing apple's whenever media would pan across the audience at a presentation or conference. I'm surprised that Apple pulled back from the glowing apple logo. I've also noticed that a lot of media presenters now cover up the lid logos on all notebooks and tablets, even non-Apple ones and the newer and subtler Apple lid logos. Im not sure what triggered the cover-up campaign. Apple must have been thrilled to see all those glowing apples, so did someone else complain?
I waited until the Series 3 to buy my first Watch and I was convinced it would be the first Apple product that I ever returned to the store. The geeky look of it was closer to Casio calculator watch than anything resembling a status symbol timepiece. And although I was willing to give it a try, I thought the trial would serve as proof that this wasn't a product I needed. Wow, was I wrong. After a couple of weeks of use, the Watch sold itself to me as my new "always" timepiece, and it has only become more useful with the improvements of each succeeding generation. In fact, since I started using it for sleep tracking, it quite literally never leaves my wrist except for charging.