No Apple Watch Ultra 3 in development, says Kuo

AppleInsider

Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo claims that Apple has not begun developing a third generation of the Apple Watch Ultra, and so it's unlikely it will release one in 2024.

Apple Watch Ultra 2

Apple made no visible changes to the Apple Watch Ultra when it unveiled a second-edition in 2023, but arguably it didn't have to. Apple Watch Ultra 2 is faster than its predecessor, though, plus it has a brighter screen and -- now with watchOS 10.1watchOS 10 -- it has Double Tap.

According to Ming-Chi Kuo, though, there is as yet no development work being done for what would presumably be called the Apple Watch Ultra 3.

"As of now, Apple has yet to kick off the Apple Watch Ultra 3 development officially," he reported on his blog. "It is unusual given the product development schedule."

"If Apple doesn't officially kick off the Apple Watch Ultra 3 project by December, it's almost confirmed that we won't see a new Apple Watch Ultra in 2024," he continued.

Kuo's reports tend now to be a mix of supply chain information and extrapolation based on his experience covering Apple. It's not clear how certain the lack of development is, but Kuo is surmising that he knows the reason.

"I think Apple hasn't officially kicked off Apple Watch Ultra 3 project," he said, "because it needs more time to develop innovative health management features, ensure the manufacturability of new features, and address issues related to Micro LED production."

However, Kuo also predicts that the lack of an updated 2024 Apple Watch Ultra will hurt sales. He says that unless there is an update, "shipments of the Apple Watch Ultra are expected to decline by 20--30% YoY in 2024, and the total Apple Watch shipments will decline by 10% YoY in 2024 to about 35 million units."

Kuo's reports and predictions back up a recent leak suggesting that the next Apple Watch Ultra would be released in 2025. That rumor specifically said that the next update would feature a microLED screen.

With a microLED screen, the Watch's display recent leak">could be up to 30 times brighter than the current OLED. At the same time, it would be more power efficient, and so help the Apple Watch Ultra's battery life.

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davidmalcolm

In development or planned for next year? I could see them next year doing a Watch X which might have like a redesign either with different material, new casing etc. Unlesd they figured out blood pressure or blood sugar, they may not have a reason to release a proper series 10 because they won’t have a faster SIP (they tend to get faster now every 2-3 years. And the S9 is probably plenty fast for a watch. So unless they need to integrate a new sensor next year there probably won’t be a need for a new Ultra model next year. 

Japhey

Looking at Apple’s product list, and I don’t really see anything that still needs to be on a strict 12-month upgrade cycle. Not now. Not anymore. 

charlesn

Japhey said:

Looking at Apple’s product list, and I don’t really see anything that still needs to be on a strict 12-month upgrade cycle. Not now. Not anymore. 

"...unless there is an update, shipments of the Apple Watch Ultra are expected to decline by 20— 30% YoY in 2024"

There's your "need" for an update right there--at least when you're a publicly owned, for profit company that's in the business of selling people more stuff. Welcome to capitalism. 

Afarstar

I’m not convinced that Kuo (or Gurman) have a clue about Apple’s plans. I think they are just second guessing all the time which is why their ‘predictions’ are often spectacularly wrong. 

Toortog

What would be interesting to know is the percentage of Apple Watch Ultra owner who actually use them for extreme sports.    The one feature of the Ultra for the average user benefits from is the extended battery life the rest is basically same as the normal Apple watches.     I was temped to get one for the larger screen but those watches are gigantic especially how high they sit on your wrist.  So a lot of the people buying the Ultra are just buying it to be a giant status symbol on their wrist, which Apple thanks you being a billboard for them.     

Me I wish Apple would focus on the regular series of watch on maybe make them a tiny bit thicker for more battery life that's a trade off I'd make.   Then continue working on new sensors to increase the health benefits of the Apple watch.   That may not be flashy but it would be of value to all owners of Apple watches. 

charlesn

Toortog said:

So a lot of the people buying the Ultra are just buying it to be a giant status symbol on their wrist, which Apple thanks you being a billboard for them.     

Me I wish Apple would focus on the regular series of watch on maybe make them a tiny bit thicker for more battery life that's a trade off I'd make.   Then continue working on new sensors to increase the health benefits of the Apple watch.   That may not be flashy but it would be of value to all owners of Apple watches. 

In a world where Jay Z wears a $6.5 million Patek Phillipe on his wrist, let me assure you that NO ONE thinks a $799 watch is a "status" symbol, least of all people who are actually into watches. And who are you to assume you know anything about why people buy an Ultra? The Ultra also costs the same as a regular Apple Watch in stainless steel, and the Ultra's various extras--bigger and brighter screen, bigger battery, serious dive watch capabilities, titanium construction, etc.-- make it a relative bargain by comparison. YOU may not like its appearance, size, etc., but then it's just not a watch for YOU. And if you think you're not a billboard for Apple because you wear a regular Apple Watch, which has a very distinctive size and shape that looks like no other watch, then you really need to get a clue. All Apple product designs serve as very effective billboards for Apple. 

dewme

charlesn said:

Toortog said:

So a lot of the people buying the Ultra are just buying it to be a giant status symbol on their wrist, which Apple thanks you being a billboard for them.     

Me I wish Apple would focus on the regular series of watch on maybe make them a tiny bit thicker for more battery life that's a trade off I'd make.   Then continue working on new sensors to increase the health benefits of the Apple watch.   That may not be flashy but it would be of value to all owners of Apple watches. 

In a world where Jay Z wears a $6.5 million Patek Phillipe on his wrist, let me assure you that NO ONE thinks a $799 watch is a "status" symbol, least of all people who are actually into watches. And who are you to assume you know anything about why people buy an Ultra? The Ultra also costs the same as a regular Apple Watch in stainless steel, and the Ultra's various extras--bigger and brighter screen, bigger battery, serious dive watch capabilities, titanium construction, etc.-- make it a relative bargain by comparison. YOU may not like its appearance, size, etc., but then it's just not a watch for YOU. And if you think you're not a billboard for Apple because you wear a regular Apple Watch, which has a very distinctive size and shape that looks like no other watch, then you really need to get a clue. All Apple product designs serve as very effective billboards for Apple. 

I have to agree with your assessments. When I got my first Apple Watch (Series 0) I actually felt kind of dorky wearing it. The prevailing sentiment at the time, largely from tech media but also leaking over into regular media, was overwhelmingly negative on the Apple Watch. I'd get questions like "Why would you buy one of those?" followed by "It doesn't do anything without the iPhone." But for me, even if it was seen "only" as an iPhone peripheral, it did a very good job of being an iPhone peripheral. Being able to get notifications on the watch was super convenient as was being able to control playback on my HomePod. It was also a great little watch for doing watch-y things. I never regretted purchasing it and seeing it on more and more people's wrists over time led me to believe I was not alone.

 I think the Apple Watch has largely transcended its status symbol role. It's become ubiquitous and an archetype. I see them everywhere and on everyone. It's the Timex or Casio of the current generation, at least for those folks who still wear watches for functional reasons. Unfortunately, there are a lot of Apple Watch lookalikes out there now too, so there's a high level of chaff to deal with.

I totally understand your "billboard for Apple" point, which is actually very positive for brand recognition across many Apple products. The glowing Apple logo on the lid of Apple MacBooks was an epic branding win for Apple. There was nothing quite as awesome as seeing a sea of glowing apple's whenever media would pan across the audience at a presentation or conference. I'm surprised that Apple pulled back from the glowing apple logo. I've also noticed that a lot of media presenters now cover up the lid logos on all notebooks and tablets, even non-Apple ones and the newer and subtler Apple lid logos. Im not sure what triggered the cover-up campaign. Apple must have been thrilled to see all those glowing apples, so did someone else complain?  

charlesn

dewme said:

charlesn said:

Toortog said:

So a lot of the people buying the Ultra are just buying it to be a giant status symbol on their wrist, which Apple thanks you being a billboard for them.     

Me I wish Apple would focus on the regular series of watch on maybe make them a tiny bit thicker for more battery life that's a trade off I'd make.   Then continue working on new sensors to increase the health benefits of the Apple watch.   That may not be flashy but it would be of value to all owners of Apple watches. 

In a world where Jay Z wears a $6.5 million Patek Phillipe on his wrist, let me assure you that NO ONE thinks a $799 watch is a "status" symbol, least of all people who are actually into watches. And who are you to assume you know anything about why people buy an Ultra? The Ultra also costs the same as a regular Apple Watch in stainless steel, and the Ultra's various extras--bigger and brighter screen, bigger battery, serious dive watch capabilities, titanium construction, etc.-- make it a relative bargain by comparison. YOU may not like its appearance, size, etc., but then it's just not a watch for YOU. And if you think you're not a billboard for Apple because you wear a regular Apple Watch, which has a very distinctive size and shape that looks like no other watch, then you really need to get a clue. All Apple product designs serve as very effective billboards for Apple. 

I have to agree with your assessments. When I got my first Apple Watch (Series 0) I actually felt kind of dorky wearing it. The prevailing sentiment at the time, largely from tech media but also leaking over into regular media, was overwhelmingly negative on the Apple Watch. I'd get questions like "Why would you buy one of those?" followed by "It doesn't do anything without the iPhone." But for me, even if it was seen "only" as an iPhone peripheral, it did a very good job of being an iPhone peripheral. Being able to get notifications on the watch was super convenient as was being able to control playback on my HomePod. It was also a great little watch for doing watch-y things. I never regretted purchasing it and seeing it on more and more people's wrists over time led me to believe I was not alone.

 I think the Apple Watch has largely transcended its status symbol role. It's become ubiquitous and an archetype. I see them everywhere and on everyone. It's the Timex or Casio of the current generation, at least for those folks who still wear watches for functional reasons. Unfortunately, there are a lot of Apple Watch lookalikes out there now too, so there's a high level of chaff to deal with.

I totally understand your "billboard for Apple" point, which is actually very positive for brand recognition across many Apple products. The glowing Apple logo on the lid of Apple MacBooks was an epic branding win for Apple. There was nothing quite as awesome as seeing a sea of glowing apple's whenever media would pan across the audience at a presentation or conference. I'm surprised that Apple pulled back from the glowing apple logo. I've also noticed that a lot of media presenters now cover up the lid logos on all notebooks and tablets, even non-Apple ones and the newer and subtler Apple lid logos. Im not sure what triggered the cover-up campaign. Apple must have been thrilled to see all those glowing apples, so did someone else complain?  

I don't think the Watch has ever been a status symbol. Not that Apple didn't try, considering that the former head of marketing for Burberry was overseeing Apple marketing at the time the Watch launched. There was the totally ludicrous $17,000 gold Apple Watch Series 1 "Edition," which I guess served its purpose as a giveaway to celebs intended to get the Watch "seen." And various "Editions" were tried after that, although none as ludicrously pricey, but I'm sure that lack of sales is the reason the Edition is no longer in the lineup. Now if you have more money than sense, the only option is to equip your Watch with a Hermes band that alone will cost more than a few Apple Watches. It's like ordering a Toyota Corolla with Hermes leather seating. 

I waited until the Series 3 to buy my first Watch and I was convinced it would be the first Apple product that I ever returned to the store. The geeky look of it was closer to Casio calculator watch than anything resembling a status symbol timepiece. And although I was willing to give it a try, I thought the trial would serve as proof that this wasn't a product I needed. Wow, was I wrong. After a couple of weeks of use, the Watch sold itself to me as my new "always" timepiece, and it has only become more useful with the improvements of each succeeding generation. In fact, since I started using it for sleep tracking, it quite literally never leaves my wrist except for charging.