Latest 'Scary Fast' leaks double down on M3 iMac and MacBook Pro launches

AppleInsider

Predictions of what Apple will launch at its "Scary Fast" event are still varying wildly, but one source claims to be certain of the complete list.

Apple's current 24-inch iMac

Most signs do point to Apple releasing Macs with its M3 processor at the October 30 event, even though some points don't add up. Nonetheless, Bloomberg writer Mark Gurman is now adamant that despite his own previous predictions, Apple is set to launch:

• M3 24-inch iMac


• Two MacBook Pro models, probably with M3 Pro and M3 Max processors


• Trackpad, mouse and keyboard updates with USB-C connectors

At the same time, Gurman says that Apple is unlikely to launch a refreshed 13-inch MacBook Pro at the event.

He's also saying that other than the move to USB-C for peripherals, there won't be any visible design changes to the Macs that are launched. There isn't expected to be any AirPods, or iPads updates either.

Separately, there were previous rumors about Apple-made USB-C cables in different colors, and it was assumed they were for the iPhone. They may now turn out to be for the iMac instead.

There has been no mention of the 30-inch iMac that was previously rumored to be coming, if not necessarily in time for this event. There's also been no discussion lately of an M3 Mac mini, although that was one of the earliest Macs to get the M1 and M2 processors.

Apple's "Scary Fast" event is on October 30, 2023, and will be streamed from 5:00 PM PT, 8:00 PM ET.

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jellybelly

1.)  I don’t think anyone has predicted that 24” iMacs might be upgraded not only with M2 but also with M2 Pro and M2 Max SOC as “scary fast” options.  I’d expect the M2 Max will be faster than the base M3.

For the iMac 24”, that could be a “scary” fast option of interest for many—including folks with a Studio Display they already have or would get so they’d have a two monitor system with power in the tank. 

There could be an introduction of a 27” or 30” or 32” iMac with the M2 Pro or M2 Max.   That would make sense. It would fill a long time stretch of no upgrades on that product. The M2 Pro & M2 Max are already in production and this would avoid the supply crunch on the M3 SOC. 

2.)  Another thought is—why would Apple schedule a reveal and compete for audience just when game 3 of the World Series starts?

Maybe the reveal will followed by (or be in) a series of ads during the World Series game, with a bigger ad just before the game start of 5:03pm PDT, and a repeat or second ad during 7th inning stretch.  And short 20 second or less ads during the game hi-lighting gaming on iPhone and the new iMacs as reinforcement teasers. It would be a rather larger audience and during a sporting event, in which they might also reveal expanded MLB showings beyond the Friday night deal. 

edited October 2023

spoon!

He's also saying that other than the move to USB-C for peripherals, there won't be any visible design changes to the Macs that are launched. 

Gurman forgot that when the desktop Mac minis went from M1 to M2 they gained two additional Thunderbolt 4 connections, which I'd also expect on refreshed iMac M2/M3.

pauloseraa

jellybelly said:

1.)  I don’t think anyone has predicted that 24” iMacs might be upgraded not only with M2 but also with M2 Pro and M2 Max SOC as “scary fast” options.  I’d expect the M2 Max will be faster than the base M3.

For the iMac 24”, that could be a “scary” fast option of interest for many—including folks with a Studio Display they already have or would get so they’d have a two monitor system with power in the tank. 

There could be an introduction of a 27” or 30” or 32” iMac with the M2 Pro or M2 Max.   That would make sense. It would fill a long time stretch of no upgrades on that product. The M2 Pro & M2 Max are already in production and this would avoid the supply crunch on the M3 SOC. 

2.)  Another thought is—why would Apple schedule a reveal and compete for audience just when game 3 of the World Series starts?

Maybe the reveal will followed by (or be in) a series of ads during the World Series game, with a bigger ad just before the game start of 5:03pm PDT, and a repeat or second ad during 7th inning stretch.  And short 20 second or less ads during the game hi-lighting gaming on iPhone and the new iMacs as reinforcement teasers. It would be a rather larger audience and during a sporting event, in which they might also reveal expanded MLB showings beyond the Friday night deal. 

If Apple planned M2 spec bumps for the 24" iMac, which are already way overdue, that would hardly be event worthy. If they're going to update this stale product at all, they might as well do it with an M3 so it can remain relevant while it languishes for a few more years. And at this stage, there is zero evidence of an imminent launch of any other iMac model. And if MacBook Pros are indeed on the table, then M3 Pro and M3 Max are the next chips in line. And if Apple is showing off M3 Pro and M3 Max, it stands to reason that they would show the base M3 first. Logically, what makes sense is a M3 iMac followed by an M3 Pro and M3 Max MBP.

The timing is thought to coincide with Japanese business hours, because there is some sort of gaming announcement that involves a Japanese game company.

danwells

At first, I thought "this makes no sense" - two high end laptops that almost end up in the mobile workstation market and a consumer desktop that sells a fraction of what the consumer laptops do. The iMac is the next machine up for an update, but it pretty much shares its innards with the 13" MBP or the Mini (ignoring the M2 Pro Mini) - it just didn't get those innards updated the last time around (why?).

Then I realized that it makes sense in one specific situation... What if all three chips are ready, but supply is constrained by yield? The pro laptops have very, very high profit per machine (their percentage margin is typical of an Apple product, or even slightly low - but their high selling prices mean a lot of dollars per machine). Building an M3 Max and sticking it in a $3000-$6000 workstation is a lot more profit per chip than selling a base M3 in an iPad or a MacBook Air. The M3 Max is also larger, and I don't know how profit per wafer compares... 

The iMac is old, and it has been attracting attention in the Mac press for how old it is, so it's a good machine to update just for the PR. Why not update its innards-mates with it? If there are supply constraints, it shares its innards with the most popular Macs of them all...

 If Apple updated the Airs, it's possible that the limited chip supply would simply shoot availability dates into March right away. Update the slower-selling iMac and people might actually get one in a reasonable time frame. Update the 14" and 16" Pro and you've made some very visible creative users happy, and sold a bunch of high profit machines

compaq38

Maybe just an IMAC a wifi 7

canukstorm

danwells said:

At first, I thought "this makes no sense" - two high end laptops that almost end up in the mobile workstation market and a consumer desktop that sells a fraction of what the consumer laptops do. The iMac is the next machine up for an update, but it pretty much shares its innards with the 13" MBP or the Mini (ignoring the M2 Pro Mini) - it just didn't get those innards updated the last time around (why?).

Then I realized that it makes sense in one specific situation... What if all three chips are ready, but supply is constrained by yield? The pro laptops have very, very high profit per machine (their percentage margin is typical of an Apple product, or even slightly low - but their high selling prices mean a lot of dollars per machine). Building an M3 Max and sticking it in a $3000-$6000 workstation is a lot more profit per chip than selling a base M3 in an iPad or a MacBook Air. The M3 Max is also larger, and I don't know how profit per wafer compares... 

The iMac is old, and it has been attracting attention in the Mac press for how old it is, so it's a good machine to update just for the PR. Why not update its innards-mates with it? If there are supply constraints, it shares its innards with the most popular Macs of them all...

 If Apple updated the Airs, it's possible that the limited chip supply would simply shoot availability dates into March right away. Update the slower-selling iMac and people might actually get one in a reasonable time frame. Update the 14" and 16" Pro and you've made some very visible creative users happy, and sold a bunch of high profit machines

 I generally agree with what you say with one caveat =>  releasing an M3 iMac now and not in the MBA / Mac mini could negatively impact (potentially) sales of the latter products for the holiday season in a big way.  I would like to see:

M3 iMac
M3 Pro / Max MBP

What I think we will see:

M2 / M2 Pro (?) iMac
M3 Pro / Max MBP

cheesefreeze

So, where are the “leaks” exactly?

entropys

Will the change to USB-C mean just replacing the mouse’s lightning port with USB-C, or is the mouse being properly de-Ived? 

The port on the bottom of the mouse is right up there in the a Hall of Fame of most stupid design flaws ever, only possible because no one was prepared to go against the design god.  

edited October 2023

mjtomlin

Apple is not going to release the next iMac with an M2… that SoC is now 16 months old. If they were going to do that, they would’ve done it months ago. The only reason the iMac has not been updated is because they were waiting for the M3. So, I predict we’ll see an M3 iMac, and a larger M3 Pro iMac.

The actual raw power of the CPU cores won’t see a huge increase, but the efficiency of the new 3nm process will allow Apple to pack more cores on the SoC without increasing power draw…

M3; 10 core CPU (6 p-cores + 4 e-cores), 14 core GPU, 12GB RAM
M3 Pro; 14 core CPU (10 p-cores + 4 e-cores), 24 core GPU 

“Scary Fast” will be relative to previous M1 iMac… upwards of a 40% increase in performance.

humbug1873

Scary fast ... they just dump the tech specs and the movie is over in 5 Minutes.

timmillea

I am pleased that there is no consensus on predictions. It shows that Apple have done a better job on their formerly famous secrecy. 

My prediction is that it is all about the M3 on the 3nM process.

That would mean refreshes of the MacBook Air, MacBook Pro 13" and iMac 24". The Mac Mini, as ever, is likely to follow later without fanfare. 

mattinoz

mjtomlin said:

Apple is not going to release the next iMac with an M2… that SoC is now 16 months old. If they were going to do that, they would’ve done it months ago. The only reason the iMac has not been updated is because they were waiting for the M3. So, I predict we’ll see an M3 iMac, and a larger M3 Pro iMac.

The actual raw power of the CPU cores won’t see a huge increase, but the efficiency of the new 3nm process will allow Apple to pack more cores on the SoC without increasing power draw…

M3; 10 core CPU (6 p-cores + 4 e-cores), 14 core GPU, 12GB RAM
M3 Pro; 14 core CPU (10 p-cores + 4 e-cores), 24 core GPU 

“Scary Fast” will be relative to previous M1 iMac… upwards of a 40% increase in performance.

How many GPU cores can the ultra use effectively?

I guess more to the question if the rumour was true about a future Mseries having 2 ultrafusion interfaces one on the GPU edge and a new one more CPU. In the rumour this allowed for the extreme doubled ultra.  But with 2 interfaces they could fuse a Prefect Pro with a working GPU section to make a Max, 2 Prefect Pros or Maxs to make the ultra(s) and 4 Prefect Pros to make the extreme. 

How big would the Pro chiplet need to be with those interfaces for Apple to only make Pro Chiplet?

aderutter

I reckon the iMac was going to get an M2 last year until M2 had to be delayed which resulted in a skip to M3 given how many iMacs they sell.

I “want” an M3 Ultra Studio but I don’t expect to be able to buy it this year

Usb-c Airpods Max for christmas please Tim!

So a big Spring 24 iPad event?
With new larger iPads (maybe a Wacom killer?) and M3?
ZBrush for iPad is coming in ‘24 so the time is right…

tenthousandthings

Solid arguments can be made for either M2 or M3 with regard to the iMac, but anything else (other than iPad Air) has to be M3.

I still tend to lean toward the M2 and M2 Pro for the iMac, with possibly the big news being a new display with an internal redesign that allows for M2 Max.

But the M1 launched the month after the A14 Bionic, so it wouldn't be unprecedented for M3 to come the month after A17 Pro. The use of the Pro label for the A17 may presage this rumored launch of M3 Pro and M3 Max in the month after A17 Pro. "A17 Pro" does make sense in that retrospective context. I'd still consider it a long shot, but it's possible.

edited October 2023

doggone

if the chips are available then I would say M3 all the way.  if I were in the market for an iMac and saw that M3s were starting to be used, I would probably not buy a M2 version thinking that the M3 may be out in 6 months.  

But it is interesting that iMac refresh rates are slowing down.  I get the color offerings but that makes it even harder to sell your inventory.  For me, laptops are far more useful and it is easy to attach a monitor or two if you want to work in a desktop mode. I haven't understood why the iMac still has a chin.  Apple in the website talks about how thin the unit is.  Who cares? When you are looking at the screen you don't see the thickness or lack of it.  But you do see the chin.  Why not make the unit just screen at the front and put the circuit board behind the screen.  The website shows a lot of images of people using an iMac for work.  Anyone doing major work will likely want several screens nowadays and again a laptop would be more flexible in its use case.  So iMacs are probably mostly useful for kids, light secretarial activities etc.  So keeping the price down low maybe a good reason for moving to M2 only.

I firmly believe Apple should start thinking about pushing down on the low end market.  They did this superbly well with the iPods.  Apple started off with the main iPod but then it really took off with the iPod mini (and the PC version of iTunes).  However there was still a lot of customers using cheaper MP3 players until Apple came out with the shuttle that effectively sucked all the profit out of the business.  
I think there is an opportunity with the M1 chip to release a cheaper notebook solution.  Something in the $500-700 range with basic features.  The price for M1 fabs must be very cheap now and Apple has the opportunity to put pressure on the PC market by getting customers who can't afford a regular Mac to gain entry at a price point that works for them.  
This isn't about cannibalizing the Mac market but starting to introduce a new user base to the Apple world.  If successful it will reduce the profit margins of other PC makers.

headfull0wine

They're building M3 chips for the Pro and Max MacBook Pros.  They need to also sell the iMac as a way to offload all the binned chips since the yield is still low. 

edited October 2023

mjtomlin

mattinoz said:

mjtomlin said:

Apple is not going to release the next iMac with an M2… that SoC is now 16 months old. If they were going to do that, they would’ve done it months ago. The only reason the iMac has not been updated is because they were waiting for the M3. So, I predict we’ll see an M3 iMac, and a larger M3 Pro iMac.

The actual raw power of the CPU cores won’t see a huge increase, but the efficiency of the new 3nm process will allow Apple to pack more cores on the SoC without increasing power draw…

M3; 10 core CPU (6 p-cores + 4 e-cores), 14 core GPU, 12GB RAM
M3 Pro; 14 core CPU (10 p-cores + 4 e-cores), 24 core GPU 

“Scary Fast” will be relative to previous M1 iMac… upwards of a 40% increase in performance.

How many GPU cores can the ultra use effectively?

I guess more to the question if the rumour was true about a future Mseries having 2 ultrafusion interfaces one on the GPU edge and a new one more CPU. In the rumour this allowed for the extreme doubled ultra.  But with 2 interfaces they could fuse a Prefect Pro with a working GPU section to make a Max, 2 Prefect Pros or Maxs to make the ultra(s) and 4 Prefect Pros to make the extreme. 

How big would the Pro chiplet need to be with those interfaces for Apple to only make Pro Chiplet?

GPU cores should scale linear, if software is written properly. So if the M3 Pro has 24, the M3 Ultra would have 96 cores. and basically come close to other high end GPUs.

tht

headfull0wine said:

They're building M3 chips for the Pro and Max MacBook Pros.  They need to also sell the iMac as a way to offload all the binned chips since the yield is still low. 

Unlikely?

If Apple follows what came before, the iMac 24 will ship with an M3 which is an entirely different chip from the M3 Pro/Max. The Pro versions of Apple silicon SoC's is design-wise the Max chip, just with half the GPU cores and memory controllers "chopped" out. I haven't seen it confirmed, but I think the Pro is fabbed separately from the Max version. Ie, they are fabbed on separate wafers, and the Pro SoCs aren't Max chips with half the chip cut out. So, three separate chips, fabbed on their own wafer. The overlapping portions of the Pro and Max models are identical, lithographically the same.

Each of these chips have binned models with 1, 2, ..., 4+ cores failing qualification. Ie, the iMac will have binned versions of the M3 only. No M3 Pro. It would be a nice surprise if there is an M3 Pro option in the iMac 24, but that's a tough sell as it push the iMac 24 to 2500 to 3000 USD. Tough sell.

tenthousandthings

headfull0wine said:

They're building M3 chips for the Pro and Max MacBook Pros.  They need to also sell the iMac as a way to offload all the binned chips since the yield is still low. 

Did I miss a story with reliable recent information about TSMC’s N3B yields? Because all I remember is an old report from more than a year ago that just said yields were as expected for that stage of 3nm development.

dutchlord

Scary fast? What a joke. Waiting for years for a M3 27+inch iMac. This is more like scary slow.