Sketchy report says 400,000 Apple Vision Pro units to ship initially, 10 million by 2026

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in Apple Vision Pro

A Chinese publication suggests Apple plans to sell millions of Apple Vision Pro units in its first three years, but the supply chain reporting is sketchy at best.

Apple Vision Pro
Apple Vision Pro



Apple Vision Pro is expected to ship in early 2024, and all signs point to Apple achieving that window. However, supply chain reports vary on exactly how many units Apple will ship in the first year.

According to an Interface News post shared by X user @Tech_Reve, Apple Vision Pro will ship 400,000 units at launch, 1 million in 2024, and up to 10 million in its first three years.

Revegnus misinterpreted this as 2025, but three years of Apple Vision Pro would be 2026 -- a much more realistic window for such sales. However, the high cost of Apple's headset could prove prohibitive and prevent explosive growth. The rumored cheaper unit isn't expected until late 2025.

The report continues by breaking down the cost of Apple Vision Pro, suggesting it is $1,700 for parts and manufacturing. That's a far cry from Apple's $3,499 price but aligns with previous bill of materials estimated pre-announcement.

Despite Apple's reduced reliance on China in recent years, the report also suggests the Apple Vision Pro is built with 60% Chinese supply chain. It indicates this trend will continue into future headsets, which Apple has already communicated about the next two generations with supply chain sources.

This report is from a relatively unknown source we've not covered before. Even the X poster @Tech_Reve, a leaker with some accurate history, says this report is suspicious.

It is also contradictory to previous reports from better-known outlets. Rumors had previously suggested Apple would aim for 1 million units in 2024, but cut back orders to 400,000 for the entire year.

These numbers are the same, but the timeline is different. Monday's report is likely working with outdated information.

We're rating this story as unlikely, as there's too much old or contradictory information to take seriously. Future reports from more reliable sources may shed more light on these numbers, but for now, they are too unknown to reliably suggest they are likely.

Read on AppleInsider

FileMakerFeller

Comments

  • Reply 1 of 7
    cpsrocpsro Posts: 3,186member
    On top of parts, manufacturing and promotion, that sleepy process called "R&D" costs a good chunk of change, too, folks.
    9secondkox2danoxFileMakerFellerwatto_cobra
  • Reply 2 of 7
    If they can release a million in the first year, it would only be if they have already been stockpiling the displays for a year. 10 million seems unlikely unless they have another supplier coming onboard or if Apple convinced Sony to significantly increase production.
    williamlondonFileMakerFellerwatto_cobra
  • Reply 3 of 7
    cpsro said:
    On top of parts, manufacturing and promotion, that sleepy process called "R&D" costs a good chunk of change, too, folks.
    Unclear how Apple might be factoring in software and media costs. Apple has a whole VR content studio that they might need to factor in to the cost until it possibly gets broken out in to a subscription later.
    9secondkox2FileMakerFellerwatto_cobra
  • Reply 4 of 7
    Apple isn’t selling ten million of these the first year - unless they pull a Disney or target and buy a bunch up themselves to crow about sales. Apple has been really pushing this thing hard before it’s ever released. Not a great sign. Usually apple would keep the next big thing a closely guarded secret until launch day and bam! You saw it, knew all about it and wanted/needed to have it. With this thing, they have to hype it ahead of time, ignore senior staff concerns, set up developer evangelism programs, etc. 

    I imagine it will make the cool Christmas gift in 2024 for those who have the proper expendable income, but in can totally see the intial 400,000 thing. That sounds about right. 
    muthuk_vanalingamwatto_cobra
  • Reply 5 of 7
    cpsro said:
    On top of parts, manufacturing and promotion, that sleepy process called "R&D" costs a good chunk of change, too, folks.
    This. The price of the vp isn’t just parts and assembly. It’s the crazy expense that went into hardware  manpower logging who knows how many hours. The prototyping, the failures, the software development, etc. 
    badmonkFileMakerFellerbaconstangwatto_cobra
  • Reply 6 of 7
    For comparison, Microsoft's HoloLens apparently sold 50k units in the first two years (https://hololens.reality.news/news/we-may-finally-know-many-hololens-devices-microsoft-sold-its-revealing-peek-future-ar-0184481/) and ~300k units from initial release (in 2016) to the end of Q4 2022 (https://www.thurrott.com/mobile/275228/microsoft-hololens-300000-units-sold). The release version was US$3000 and version 2 (released in 2019) was US$3500 - these are base model prices only; more expensive versions are available.

    The US military ordered a bunch of v2 devices; it's unclear whether those are included in the sales numbers above. Reportedly several users suffer from nausea when using the devices, which has probably affected demand.

    We won't know for sure until the AVP is widely available, but nausea does not appear to be a problem. I think Apple will sell as many of these things as it can make, regardless of the initial price being widely viewed as "too high" for widespread adoption.
    baconstangwatto_cobra
  • Reply 7 of 7
    Apple isn’t selling ten million of these the first year - unless they pull a Disney or target and buy a bunch up themselves to crow about sales. Apple has been really pushing this thing hard before it’s ever released. Not a great sign. Usually apple would keep the next big thing a closely guarded secret until launch day and bam! You saw it, knew all about it and wanted/needed to have it. With this thing, they have to hype it ahead of time, ignore senior staff concerns, set up developer evangelism programs, etc. 

    I imagine it will make the cool Christmas gift in 2024 for those who have the proper expendable income, but in can totally see the intial 400,000 thing. That sounds about right. 
    Yeah, they're pushing hard, but they have to.  It's not just the next iPhone or MBA, it's a whole new platform.  
    People need to be educated about it, and that will take a real effort.
    edited November 2023 watto_cobra
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