Kuo: Apple's 2024 starts with Apple Vision Pro, ends with a new Mac event

AppleInsider

As part of a longer post about tech trends in 2024, analyst Ming-Chi Kuo has predicted that the Apple Vision Pro will start shipping to Apple in early January, with a new Mac event happening near the end of the year.

Apple Vision Pro

In a post to Medium, Kuo offers his end-of-year roundup with forecasts for the tech industry in 2024. Most of the note pertains to Android and the annual schedule -- but he does chime in on when he expects Apple Vision Pro to arrive.

Calling it Apple's most important product for 2024, he says that the headset is currently in mass production, and mass shipments to Apple will start in the first week of January.

Given this timeline, he says that Apple Vision Pro will most likely hit store shelves in late January or early February, with about 500,000 units shipping in total across all of 2024.

"If user feedback on Vision Pro is better than expected, it will help strengthen the market consensus that 'Vision Pro is the next star product in consumer electronics' and the related supply chain stock price," Kuo postulates.

Apple has repeatedly stated that its release of the Apple Vision Pro will occur "early" in 2024, though without fixing down an actual date. Kuo's report on Christmas Day is not the first to suggest January, as Mark Gurman said in early December that it was likely to arrive in that timeframe.

In his discussion, Gurman says that an initiative to bring select store employees to Apple Park for training will happen in January, with the employees returning home to then teach the rest of their respective stores.

The seminars are being scheduled to start in the middle of January, with each employee getting two days of training.

Though customers will be able to reserve their headsets online, it is believed that they will be pushed towards picking up the headsets from retail. Apple Stores will apparently receive equipment soon, all to assemble and box the headset on-site for the customer.

New Macs expected in late 2024

He's also expecting a new Mac media event in the fourth quarter of 2024, after the iPhone 16 debut. At present, other than WWDC, he doesn't have an event pinned for the first half of 2024.

This timetable for new Macs seems too long. It seems unlikely that Apple will wait until the Fall of 2024 for M3 Ultra machines like the Mac Studio or Mac Pro refresh -- but given the pro focus, they may debut at WWDC. Kuo's timetable also seems stretched out for M3 Mac mini and MacBook Air as well.

Kuo's reputation has taken some hits as of late. Most recently, he declared that Apple was done for 2023 -- and then the company rolled out the M3 MacBook Pro lineup just two weeks later.

We've ranked this prediction as "likely" not because of any particular insight, but mostly because it has already been predicted, is obvious, and is safe.

Rumor Score: Likely

Read on AppleInsider

keithw

It would seem silly to wait until the end of 2024 for the M3 Mac Mini, Mac Studio, and Mac Pro, since the M3 Pro and Max are already shipping in other products.  I can't imagine many people are buying the M2 Mac Studio since the maxed out M3 Max MPB already outperforms the M2 Studio Ultra.

chasm

keithw said:

It would seem silly to wait until the end of 2024 for the M3 Mac Mini, Mac Studio, and Mac Pro, since the M3 Pro and Max are already shipping in other products.

Agreed. I think there will be something in the spring for the Mini and Air (and iPads!), the M3 Ultra stuff will debut at WWDC, but perhaps not be available until the fall, and the fall event will focus on iPhones.

Maybe this is my relative poverty talking, but I’m skeptical of Apple moving half a million Vision Pro headsets across 2024. I’m 100 percent certain the reviews of it by users and professional reviewers will be strong, but until a use case beyond amusement/alternative work space can be made (or maybe a “killer app”), that’s a lot of money to spend on what is, at present, a (fancy, cutting-edge) $3,500 toy.

I hope I’m wrong, but I suspect Apple will aim it squarely at their “lots of disposable income” audience and hope developers fill in the gaps to make it something more useful than it seems at present.

charlesn

chasm said:

keithw said:

It would seem silly to wait until the end of 2024 for the M3 Mac Mini, Mac Studio, and Mac Pro, since the M3 Pro and Max are already shipping in other products.

Agreed. I think there will be something in the spring for the Mini and Air (and iPads!), the M3 Ultra stuff will debut at WWDC, but perhaps not be available until the fall, and the fall event will focus on iPhones.

Maybe this is my relative poverty talking, but I’m skeptical of Apple moving half a million Vision Pro headsets across 2024. I’m 100 percent certain the reviews of it by users and professional reviewers will be strong, but until a use case beyond amusement/alternative work space can be made (or maybe a “killer app”), that’s a lot of money to spend on what is, at present, a (fancy, cutting-edge) $3,500 toy.

I hope I’m wrong, but I suspect Apple will aim it squarely at their “lots of disposable income” audience and hope developers fill in the gaps to make it something more useful than it seems at present.

And based on your vast experience with the capabilities of the Vision Pro, what leads you to call it a $3,500 "toy?" All you can see is shoehorning it into what's already possible and then concluding that it doesn't really have a purpose. Your complete-lack-of-imagination reaction reminds me of all those who dismissed iPad at launch as nothing more than a big iPhone. Yeah, and then people started writing apps that turned it into everything from a "cash register" at stores to a canvas for creative design professionals to an indispensable tool for hospitals... and countless other uses which had nothing to do with it being "a big iPhone." I'd argue that the iPad has never had a "killer app" in its history, just a ton of useful apps in countless different fields, but that sure hasn't hurt sales. As for Vision Pro: just the training apps alone that could be written for it, allowing people to practice complex jobs in a 3-D virtual space before having to do it IRL should make 500K in global sales an easy number to hit in 2024. Like the iPad, the Vision Pro brings an entirely new set of capabilities to the computing space and I believe that companies and working professionals, not entertainment-seeking gamers, will be the biggest customers in its early years. What Apple needs to do right now is deliver a product that "just works" as advertised--it can't be a fragile, buggy piece of crap that has to be pulled from the market like, say, Samsung's first folding screen phone. Tim knows how much Apple is betting on Vision Pro succeeding and only the foolhardy would bet against Tim. 

aderutter

I would expect Macs updated to the M3 family first half of ‘24; and what Kuo is referencing is likely an M4 event. 

M3 Mac Studio (and others) could well be simple press release updates without an event.

We’ll be getting M3 in an iPad pretty soon, so the Macs need to keep ahead. 

harrykatsaros

Am I the only one that thinks that Apple will hold a Vision Pro focused event prior to release to demonstrate some new use cases now that developers have been able to spend some time with the device? Or am I way off here? 

eightzero

harrykatsaros said:

Am I the only one that thinks that Apple will hold a Vision Pro focused event prior to release to demonstrate some new use cases now that developers have been able to spend some time with the device? Or am I way off here? 

Seems likely; but perhaps something fairly focused and short...and pre-produced. Maybe simply a video posted on apple dot com. 

9secondkox2

harrykatsaros said:

Am I the only one that thinks that Apple will hold a Vision Pro focused event prior to release to demonstrate some new use cases now that developers have been able to spend some time with the device? Or am I way off here? 

More explanation won’t help. They’ll more likely show apps in action on launch and post them to the info/purchase page. 

dave marsh

I can see a use case for home bound users with limited space using it as their primary computer.  The headset is in reality a fully capable Mac that just uses a different interface for interacting with its apps.  The entertainment side is just a plus.  Also, for those of us with diminishing vision, a device to blow up screens to whatever size is comfortable for reading/interacting is enticing.  Look at the cost of a MacBook Pro or Studio w/display and the price is not that out of line.  High end, certainly, but not exorbitant.

avon b7

charlesn said:

chasm said:

keithw said:

It would seem silly to wait until the end of 2024 for the M3 Mac Mini, Mac Studio, and Mac Pro, since the M3 Pro and Max are already shipping in other products.

Agreed. I think there will be something in the spring for the Mini and Air (and iPads!), the M3 Ultra stuff will debut at WWDC, but perhaps not be available until the fall, and the fall event will focus on iPhones.

Maybe this is my relative poverty talking, but I’m skeptical of Apple moving half a million Vision Pro headsets across 2024. I’m 100 percent certain the reviews of it by users and professional reviewers will be strong, but until a use case beyond amusement/alternative work space can be made (or maybe a “killer app”), that’s a lot of money to spend on what is, at present, a (fancy, cutting-edge) $3,500 toy.

I hope I’m wrong, but I suspect Apple will aim it squarely at their “lots of disposable income” audience and hope developers fill in the gaps to make it something more useful than it seems at present.

And based on your vast experience with the capabilities of the Vision Pro, what leads you to call it a $3,500 "toy?" All you can see is shoehorning it into what's already possible and then concluding that it doesn't really have a purpose. Your complete-lack-of-imagination reaction reminds me of all those who dismissed iPad at launch as nothing more than a big iPhone. Yeah, and then people started writing apps that turned it into everything from a "cash register" at stores to a canvas for creative design professionals to an indispensable tool for hospitals... and countless other uses which had nothing to do with it being "a big iPhone." I'd argue that the iPad has never had a "killer app" in its history, just a ton of useful apps in countless different fields, but that sure hasn't hurt sales. As for Vision Pro: just the training apps alone that could be written for it, allowing people to practice complex jobs in a 3-D virtual space before having to do it IRL should make 500K in global sales an easy number to hit in 2024. Like the iPad, the Vision Pro brings an entirely new set of capabilities to the computing space and I believe that companies and working professionals, not entertainment-seeking gamers, will be the biggest customers in its early years. What Apple needs to do right now is deliver a product that "just works" as advertised--it can't be a fragile, buggy piece of crap that has to be pulled from the market like, say, Samsung's first folding screen phone. Tim knows how much Apple is betting on Vision Pro succeeding and only the foolhardy would bet against Tim. 

You don't need any experience with it to call it an expensive 'toy'. Simply take into account the context he pointed out, and especially the 'at present'.

The iPad brought nothing new to market except for the screen size. It also shipped at a 'low price'. At first it was very much a passive device used mainly for 'consumption', not production. The market for phones/tablets was far bigger than for AR/VR visors.

The Vision Pro is bringing much that is truly new to market from an Apple perspective if not from the perspective of competitors. It is mainly a souped up version of existing products and comes with a price tag to match. 

At present, only people with money to burn will be tempted to get one, knowing full well that a second iteration will improve on some of the current pain points and by that time there will be more apps/content available.

Are there 500,000 people out there willing to spend that much on a device like this? Very possibly. 

First generation folding phones sold very well (far more than 500,000) with many over $2,000 and those buyers were well aware that upgrades were less than a year away.

I wouldnt go out on a limb but I'm a fan. But I'm a fan of all the other devices too, having a Quest at home. 

One of the things holding the potential of these devices back is the lack of ICT infrastructure capacity. That will roll out with 5.5G around 2025. Until then the device will have to remain 'local' for many use cases. 

brianus

dave marsh said:

I can see a use case for home bound users with limited space using it as their primary computer.  The headset is in reality a fully capable Mac that just uses a different interface for interacting with its apps.  The entertainment side is just a plus.  Also, for those of us with diminishing vision, a device to blow up screens to whatever size is comfortable for reading/interacting is enticing.  Look at the cost of a MacBook Pro or Studio w/display and the price is not that out of line.  High end, certainly, but not exorbitant.

I wish that were so, but it's more like a fully capable iPad Pro - visionOS is essentially a fork of iPadOS and the apps are updated from their iPad, not Mac, counterparts. The Mac integration we saw in the demonstration was very underwhelming; it would have been awesome if Mac apps could float independently in mixed reality, but instead we just get a mirrored view of the Mac's desktop - in other words, they are still bound to a small rectangle in front of your face rather than allowed to move all around you. Meh. Since this is being marketed as a "pro" device to users with fat wallets, I was really hoping they'd make Mac integration the priority but nope.

M68000

brianus said:

dave marsh said:

I can see a use case for home bound users with limited space using it as their primary computer.  The headset is in reality a fully capable Mac that just uses a different interface for interacting with its apps.  The entertainment side is just a plus.  Also, for those of us with diminishing vision, a device to blow up screens to whatever size is comfortable for reading/interacting is enticing.  Look at the cost of a MacBook Pro or Studio w/display and the price is not that out of line.  High end, certainly, but not exorbitant.

I wish that were so, but it's more like a fully capable iPad Pro - visionOS is essentially a fork of iPadOS and the apps are updated from their iPad, not Mac, counterparts. The Mac integration we saw in the demonstration was very underwhelming; it would have been awesome if Mac apps could float independently in mixed reality, but instead we just get a mirrored view of the Mac's desktop - in other words, they are still bound to a small rectangle in front of your face rather than allowed to move all around you. Meh. Since this is being marketed as a "pro" device to users with fat wallets, I was really hoping they'd make Mac integration the priority but nope.

So, you want this device to be like a Mac instead of a completely new product?  I already have several Macs which i love.  But, i doubt putting up with a Mac on my head is something i would want.  It will be interesting of course to see what the real demand and/or use case is for it.   Thinking back to the TV market,  they tried to market and hype 3D TV’s.  Nobody wanted to sit around with light weight glasses.  What about curved TV’s ?  Another gimmick nobody wants.

chasm

charlesn said:

And based on your vast experience with the capabilities of the Vision Pro, what leads you to call it a $3,500 "toy?"

I’m sorry you were too busy composing an unhinged rant with steam coming out of your ears to note that I also said I hope I’m wrong.

I have not had the opportunity to try the product myself, but I have paid keen attention to Apple’s presentations about it and the subsequent articles here on AppleInsider (and on YouTube) from people who have more hands-on with it than I do.

Nowhere did I say it was not impressive or even amazing. But even after getting in touch with some of the YouTubers, I find that they are hard-pressed to say what THEY would use it for beyond entertainment, which suggests that at present, there’s a lack of clear reasons for a non-developer member of the public — even one who uses Apple products now — to spend that level of money on it, particularly when consumers are getting squeezed HARD from other inflationary forces.

So maybe you could enlighten me and tell me why you’re buying one on day one of availability, and specifically what you are going to do with it that replaces anything you have now. I look forward to your insight.

brianus

M68000 said:

brianus said:

dave marsh said:on 

I can see a use case for home bound users with limited space using it as their primary computer.  The headset is in reality a fully capable Mac that just uses a different interface for interacting with its apps.  The entertainment side is just a plus.  Also, for those of us with diminishing vision, a device to blow up screens to whatever size is comfortable for reading/interacting is enticing.  Look at the cost of a MacBook Pro or Studio w/display and the price is not that out of line.  High end, certainly, but not exorbitant.

I wish that were so, but it's more like a fully capable iPad Pro - visionOS is essentially a fork of iPadOS and the apps are updated from their iPad, not Mac, counterparts. The Mac integration we saw in the demonstration was very underwhelming; it would have been awesome if Mac apps could float independently in mixed reality, but instead we just get a mirrored view of the Mac's desktop - in other words, they are still bound to a small rectangle in front of your face rather than allowed to move all around you. Meh. Since this is being marketed as a "pro" device to users with fat wallets, I was really hoping they'd make Mac integration the priority but nope.

So, you want this device to be like a Mac instead of a completely new product?  I already have several Macs which i love.  But, i doubt putting up with a Mac on my head is something i would want.  It will be interesting of course to see what the real demand and/or use case is for it.   Thinking back to the TV market,  they tried to market and hype 3D TV’s.  Nobody wanted to sit around with light weight glasses.  What about curved TV’s ?  Another gimmick nobody wants.

No, I definitely have no issue with it being its own product with its own approach to apps and AR experiences. I just feel like it dropped the ball on Mac integration in particular - they added it, but it could have been so much more. If this were a strictly consumer focused product that would make sense, but since this is marketed as an ultra high priced  "pro" device with a significant emphasis in the presentation on productivity, I feel like they aren't doing enough to make it compelling to those of us who are looking for a bigger canvas for work applications (there is no bigger canvas than your entire field of view).

As the guy I was replying to said, there's a use case for making it a primary computer for users with limited physical space. I have that problem in my tiny home and it's even worse on the road. I've tried to make do with multiple monitors, iPad sidecar and portable displays, but the holy grail to me would be an AR headset that connects to my MacBook and turns the real world into an essentially limitless desktop. Apple was so close to that but for some reason settled for mirroring instead.

I guess the bright side is, this is something they could add with a software update some day (to both operating systems of course).

danox

keithw said:

It would seem silly to wait until the end of 2024 for the M3 Mac Mini, Mac Studio, and Mac Pro, since the M3 Pro and Max are already shipping in other products.  I can't imagine many people are buying the M2 Mac Studio since the maxed out M3 Max MPB already outperforms the M2 Studio Ultra.

WWDC June release time and back to school end of August  have always been good target dates if you can make them.

danox

dave marsh said:

I can see a use case for home bound users with limited space using it as their primary computer.  The headset is in reality a fully capable Mac that just uses a different interface for interacting with its apps.  The entertainment side is just a plus.  Also, for those of us with diminishing vision, a device to blow up screens to whatever size is comfortable for reading/interacting is enticing.  Look at the cost of a MacBook Pro or Studio w/display and the price is not that out of line.  High end, certainly, but not exorbitant.

Most of the world is space challenged most don't have space if the AVP works as well as some the early users have said some existing electronic devices will be replaced. Since the Apple Vision Pro has a M2/M3 processor it obliviously will be able to run virtually all of the Apple software available if Apple allows it to, spacial video and eye/finger control (courtesy of the R1 co-processor)  will be killer features.

It will replace multiple devices for some people......

danox

aderutter said:

I would expect Macs updated to the M3 family first half of ‘24; and what Kuo is referencing is likely an M4 event. 

M3 Mac Studio (and others) could well be simple press release updates without an event.

We’ll be getting M3 in an iPad pretty soon, so the Macs need to keep ahead. 

With a whopping 256 gigs of UMA memory combined with 35-107 watts of power use and the AI hype, the Mac Studio Ultra won't be just a press release and neither will the Mac Pro upon its intro.