Apple Vision Pro launch quantities rumored to be far tighter than previously estimated

Posted:
in Future Apple Hardware

While there are conflicting reports about exactly how many Apple Vision Pro units Apple will have available at launch, Ming-Chi Kuo thinks that the number will be smaller than previously predicted.

Apple Vision Pro at Apple Park
Apple Vision Pro at Apple Park



There has always been some question about how many launch units Apple has for anything at launch. The larger iPhone Pro models have always been tight, and notably Apple shipped less than 1,000 units of the cylindrical Mac Pro when it first shipped to make a year-end deadline.

A new post on X by Ming-Chi Kuo puts a number on how many units will be available on February 2. He predicts that there will be between 60,000 and 80,000 units available on launch day.

Apple will produce 60,000 to 80,000 units of Vision Pro for the February 2 release. Since the shipment is not large, I believe that Vision Pro will sell out soon after the release.

Although Apple has not clearly defined the product positioning and key applications of Vision Pro https://t.co/miktcS0aSK

— (Ming-Chi Kuo) (@mingchikuo)



In November, sources said to be within the Chinese supply chain predicted that there would be 400,000 units at launch. Other predictions have come in around that ballpark. Should Kuo's 80,000 units be correct, that would be a new low prediction.

The launch timing is also far earlier than typical for Apple when it gives a wide range of availability like "early 2024." The aforementioned Mac Pro launch was said to be by the end of that year, and Apple ultimately shipped a relative handful in the last days of the year to make the deadline.

In a post early on Tuesday, Kuo initially said that Apple did showcase the technology well at its introduction, but "left out more important information about the product's position and key applications."

Kuo postulated that hype for the headset should mean the Apple Vision Pro will sell out after pre-orders open or when it goes on sale, in turn lengthening shipping times.

Rumor Score: Likely

Read on AppleInsider

Comments

  • Reply 1 of 13
    Why is he continuing to make comments like this?  There is no way that this will ever be verified, unless Apple announces pre-order numbers on 2/1.  If he’s close, does he get a cookie? 

    As seems to be the case lately, Kuo Doesn’t Know™️.

    The man seems to be jumping at straws to stay relevant around this new product.
    thtpulseimagesStrangeDaysAfarstarronnwatto_cobra
  • Reply 2 of 13
    Why is he continuing to make comments like this?  There is no way that this will ever be verified, unless Apple announces pre-order numbers on 2/1.  If he’s close, does he get a cookie? 

    As seems to be the case lately, Kuo Doesn’t Know™️.

    The man seems to be jumping at straws to stay relevant around this new product.
    The Vision Pro is clearly a new device category if one believes Apple's marketing.  So *iff* it's a success, it should have its own category during Apple's financial reporting.  But I doubt it will be successful from a financial perspective, so Apple might clump it into the "wearable" category to hide from investors its minuscule contribution.
    edited January 11 watto_cobrawilliamlondon
  • Reply 3 of 13
    twolf2919 said:
    Why is he continuing to make comments like this?  There is no way that this will ever be verified, unless Apple announces pre-order numbers on 2/1.  If he’s close, does he get a cookie? 

    As seems to be the case lately, Kuo Doesn’t Know™️.

    The man seems to be jumping at straws to stay relevant around this new product.
    The Vision Pro is clearly a new device category if one believes Apple's marketing.  So *iff* it's a success, it should have its own category during Apple's financial reporting.  But I doubt it will be successful from a financial perspective, so Apple might clump it into the "wearable" category to hide from investors its minuscule contribution.
    How would it not be verified? I'm pretty sure analysts will have a pretty good idea after it launches whether the real number is closer to 80,000 or whether it's closer to 400,000.
    pulseimagesronnwatto_cobra
  • Reply 4 of 13
    thttht Posts: 5,499member
    twolf2919 said:
    Why is he continuing to make comments like this?  There is no way that this will ever be verified, unless Apple announces pre-order numbers on 2/1.  If he’s close, does he get a cookie? 

    As seems to be the case lately, Kuo Doesn’t Know™️.

    The man seems to be jumping at straws to stay relevant around this new product.
    The Vision Pro is clearly a new device category if one believes Apple's marketing.  So *iff* it's a success, it should have its own category during Apple's financial reporting.  But I doubt it will be successful from a financial perspective, so Apple might clump it into the "wearable" category to hide from investors its minuscule contribution.
    How would it not be verified? I'm pretty sure analysts will have a pretty good idea after it launches whether the real number is closer to 80,000 or whether it's closer to 400,000.
    This is actually the first I've heard of there being 400k units at launch. If there is a statement that is wrong, it's the 400k unit number at launch.

    What we've heard, or I've heard, is that Sony can only make 1 million microOLED displays in 2024, which would equate to 500k VP units, and they could not ramp up to produce more. Apple is looking for a second source supplier for the displays, but if they didn't start doing that in early 2023, a second source supplier isn't contributing many units in 2024.

    So, straight linear, or a constant production rate, gets you 42,000 units a month. We all assume Apple has been hoarding those displays for launch, so 60,000 to 80,000 VP units isn't a bad guess for launch availability.

    It's going to be 2 years before Apple's VP production rate is going to be like the Macbook Pro, which are at about 8m to 10m units per year. 2 years is probably too early for that. Check that, if you assume a doubling per year in production rate, you'd need 4 years.

    One thing to look for is for Apple to produce Vision Pro units at different sizes, as you know, people have different sized heads. And of course, a unit that starts at $2000 or so.
    watto_cobra
  • Reply 5 of 13
    Of course. Has to “sell out” somehow. 
    designr
  • Reply 6 of 13
    twolf2919 said:
    Why is he continuing to make comments like this?  There is no way that this will ever be verified, unless Apple announces pre-order numbers on 2/1.  If he’s close, does he get a cookie? 

    As seems to be the case lately, Kuo Doesn’t Know™️.

    The man seems to be jumping at straws to stay relevant around this new product.
    The Vision Pro is clearly a new device category if one believes Apple's marketing.  So *iff* it's a success, it should have its own category during Apple's financial reporting.  But I doubt it will be successful from a financial perspective, so Apple might clump it into the "wearable" category to hide from investors its minuscule contribution.
    I think most assume that Apple will include Vision Pro in the “wearables” category.  The category, which includes the Watch, was just under $40B last year.  It is possible they do break it out, but I would be surprised.
    StrangeDayswatto_cobra
  • Reply 7 of 13
    80,000 x $3,500 = $280,000,000

    gonna be a terrible day
    ronnwatto_cobra
  • Reply 8 of 13
    eightzeroeightzero Posts: 3,085member
    Hum. I'm guessing this would be a product that Apple Care would be a prudent purchase. Wonder how much it would cost.
    watto_cobra
  • Reply 9 of 13
    red oakred oak Posts: 1,093member
    It was never going to be 400,000 “at launch”.   The 400,000 figure was for all FY24, and this is still in the cards 
    edited January 12 ronnwatto_cobra
  • Reply 10 of 13
    dewmedewme Posts: 5,422member
    Oh my, the Nostradamus of Apple's supply chain has revised his prediction. Shocking. 

    I'm pretty upbeat on the potential of Apple Vision Pro, but (almost) never has an Apple product's success depended so greatly on such a broad base of customer acceptance that is difficult to predict in advance. When the iPhone, iPad, and many other Apple products hit the market for the first time potential customers had a pretty clear understanding of how those products worked, how they looked, and how they fit into their everyday life. When those product were shown for the first time the presenter, with the best case scenario being Steve Jobs himself, clearly articulated and demonstrated how the product worked in a way that was instantly relatable and non-mysterious.

    I'll be the first to admit that I don't fully understand what problem the Apple Vision Pro solves - for me.

    When it comes down to fitting, the Apple Watch requires customers to select the right size wrist band and headphone buyers have to ensure the headphones are comfortable to wear, but there is wider familiarity with those products because they've been around for a long time. In the case of headphones it ultimately comes down to how good they fit, look, and perform, but to a large extent potential buyers have a pre-established frame of reference to make a decision or they trust someone else to be a good judge of the product in question. I certainly do not have my own frame of reference or even a reliable source to lean on to steer me towards a product like the Apple Vision Pro. How will I react with a machine strapped to my face, fitted or not? I really don't know.

    I fully expect that Apple has engaged with individuals and groups of people it sees as being representative of potential customers of the Apple Vision Pro product. If they were accurate in their selection of testers and received positive and compelling feedback that ends up being reflected in sales of the Apple Vision Pro, they should be in good shape. Apple's reputation will certainly drive curiosity by fans and early adopters, but it will come down to how many of those fans and early adopters react in a way that will generate broader appeal. I am not going to be an early adopter. That's why I'm waiting to see the reception from the early adopters, both good and bad. 
    Because of all the unknowns and lack of familiarity it's a wait and see game when it comes to trying to predict sales. I trust Apple is the only one who really knows what they are talking about in that regard.
    muthuk_vanalingamwatto_cobra
  • Reply 11 of 13
    eriamjheriamjh Posts: 1,661member
    Steve Jobs would  say people do not know what they want because they don’t think outside of their own experiences.  I think Henry Ford said if you asked people what they wanted, they would have said faster horses.  He sold them a car. 

    I doubt Apple is “jumping on the AR bandwagon” spending 5 to 7 years developing this product for it to have no new real purpose.  

    I’ll reserve my judgement until I have reviewed the YT whore reviews of what they do with it.  Then I will mentally do acrobatics trying to justify if I want to do those same things for the cost of 175 lunches out with a nice tip (plus tax and the prescription fees).   
    watto_cobra
  • Reply 12 of 13
    Gary-GGary-G Posts: 2unconfirmed, member
    Apple is a great company that offered a sense of style combined with realism. This product is not a realistic product for productivity or for entertainment along the Apple product line, it is the second dropped ball in a year, the first being launching the MacBook Pro with 8 GB and claiming 8 GB = 16 GB allowing Win/Tel to take the pole position once more in PCs and laptops. This product has three fatal flaws. (A) It is serving a market that is small that most people are not interested (B) The device is underpowered for what it wants to achieve, you cannot game on the device, which was the big market for prior VR devices. Most of Apple's success was a shared experience. (C) Putting a pair of electronic ski goggles and orienting yourself to a confined digital environment is simply not a shared experience. 
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