Apple sells up to 180,000 Apple Vision Pro, says Kuo

AppleInsider

Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo claims that Apple has sold between 160,000 and 180,000 of the Apple Vision Pro, but says demand may be falling.

Apple Vision Pro

It took just 18 minutes for Apple to sell out of its initial stock of Apple Vision Pro after preorders began on January 19, 2024. After two hours, shipping dates had already slipped back to March and even April.

"Based on pre-order inventory and shipping time, I estimated that Apple sold 160,000 to 180,000 Vision Pro units during the first pre-order weekend," wrote analyst Ming-Chi Kuo in a blog post.

It's not clear what Kuo is basing his pre-order inventory calculation on, but he has previously estimated that Apple would make 60,000 to 80,000 units.

"The instant sold-out and extended shipping times seem positive at first, but a key concern emerged: shipping times remained unchanged 48 hours after pre-orders opened," continues Kuo. "It indicates that demand may quickly taper off after the core fans and heavy users place their orders."

Kuo notes that with all Apple pre-orders, especially for the iPhone, there is an immediate increase in shipping times. "However, unlike Vision Pro, iPhone models usually continue to see a steady increase in shipping times 24 to 48 hours after pre-orders open," he writes, "indicating that demand continues to grow even after the initial sold-out."

The analyst cites media reports saying that Apple Vision Pro suppliers such as Luxshare "will work overtime during the Lunar New Year to meet demand, meaning better than expected demand for Vision Pro."

"However, the reality is that because there is still room for improvement in Vision Pro production efficiency," he says, "Luxshare has been working full-time overtime since the start of mass production to offset the impact of production efficiency on shipments."

Again based on his unspecified inventory calculations, Kuo points out that with a "user base of over 1.2 billion active users... as long as about 0.007% of users are willing to buy... Vision Pro can sell out after opening for pre-order."

Kuo concludes that "right now, Vision Pro is still a very niche product."

Separately, Apple has revealed that the repair cost for a damaged Apple Vision Pro can be as much as $2,399.



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Pema

I don't know about this Ming Cho Kuo. Around the Apple haunts he is regarded as some venerable soothsayer like Nostradamus.   

One day he says that his estimate is 60K-80K units. Then he reads his tea leaves and comes up with 180K sold. But, and this is where he is covering where the sun don't shine, orders are tapering off. And oh, yes, it is a niche product. 

OK. Tomorrow Apple starts to sell the hell out of Vision Pro because other than amateurs take an interest - pros in every industry where there is a need for an MR headset - and then Ming comes back and revises his tea leaves and says, well Apple just sold one million VPs and it is no longer a niche product, it is now an industry defining product like the Bondi Blue Mac, the MacBook, the iPod, the iPhone, the iPad, the AirPods, the Apple Watch and on and on and on. Unlike Google that has a miserable time with hardware releases Apple creates INDUSTRY DEFINING products. 

And once VP takes off, Netflix, Spotify etc. etc. will create native apps and Ming will say, 'see, I told you so', forgetting all along that his tea leaves are just that, tea leaves and sometimes he gets it right and most times he gets it wrong. 

Perhaps Ming can spend his time more productively looking for MH370. 

Graham'sNumber

Again based on his unspecified inventory calculations, Kuo points out that with a "user base of over 1.2 billion active users... as long as about 0.007% of users are willing to buy... Vision Pro can sell out after opening for pre-order."

1.2B active users in the US........?

Stabitha_Christie

Pema said:

One day he says that his estimate is 60K-80K units. Then he reads his tea leaves and comes up with 180K sold. But, and this is where he is covering where the sun don't shine, orders are tapering off. And oh, yes, it is a niche 

He said they would have 80k to ship initially and now he is saying they took orders up to 180k. Those statements are in no way incompatible or contradictory.  He is also correct that it tapered off, that isn’t a bad thing. It’s a statement of fact. It’s also a niche product. Will it alway be one? Who knows. But currently it very much is. 

foregoneconclusion

Yes, because big screen TVs, multiple monitor setups and computers/apps are all so niche in society today...I mean, who's really interested in that and why would anyone try to sell those things??

evolvingtech

Graham'sNumber said:

Again based on his unspecified inventory calculations, Kuo points out that with a "user base of over 1.2 billion active users... as long as about 0.007% of users are willing to buy... Vision Pro can sell out after opening for pre-order."

1.2B active users in the US........?

Graham raises a good point. There are certainly not 1.5B active users in the US. We must remind ourselves that the AVP pre-order launch was limited to only the United States. So, if Apple sold 160K - 180K over this initial launch with only sales to the US, it may bode well for world-wide sales

charlesn

Pema said:

I don't know about this Ming Cho Kuo. Around the Apple haunts he is regarded as some venerable soothsayer like Nostradamus.   

If you're an analyst covering Apple, it's very hard to "know" much about anything since Apple is famous for its secrecy and reveals as little as possible directly. So it is a matter of "reading tea leaves" with leaky supply chain sources, etc. Kuo's prediction accuracy is far from perfect, but he's better than anyone else, which is why he gets a lot of respect. As for Vision Pro sales in 2024: there is nothing to be learned this year by following sales numbers. It's going to be a niche seller, end of story. I suppose if there had been no interest when pre-orders opened, THAT would have been a story, but that didn't happen. Pre-orders are about half of Apple's target number for the year, so if sales drop off (as you'd expect), that's fine, there are 11 months left to sell the other 200K units. The more critical question for Jan 2025 isn't about how many Vision Pros were sold but this: what new apps have been developed over the past year? And: how much better have the use cases for Vision Pro been defined? 

mikethemartian

Pema said:

I don't know about this Ming Cho Kuo. Around the Apple haunts he is regarded as some venerable soothsayer like Nostradamus.   

One day he says that his estimate is 60K-80K units. Then he reads his tea leaves and comes up with 180K sold. But, and this is where he is covering where the sun don't shine, orders are tapering off. And oh, yes, it is a niche product. 

OK. Tomorrow Apple starts to sell the hell out of Vision Pro because other than amateurs take an interest - pros in every industry where there is a need for an MR headset - and then Ming comes back and revises his tea leaves and says, well Apple just sold one million VPs and it is no longer a niche product, it is now an industry defining product like the Bondi Blue Mac, the MacBook, the iPod, the iPhone, the iPad, the AirPods, the Apple Watch and on and on and on. Unlike Google that has a miserable time with hardware releases Apple creates INDUSTRY DEFINING products. 

And once VP takes off, Netflix, Spotify etc. etc. will create native apps and Ming will say, 'see, I told you so', forgetting all along that his tea leaves are just that, tea leaves and sometimes he gets it right and most times he gets it wrong. 

Perhaps Ming can spend his time more productively looking for MH370. 

Well Nostradamus himself was full of crap.

pulseimages

What’s Ming-Cho Kuo’s batting average for predicting Apple products?

damn_its_hot

Graham'sNumber said:

Again based on his unspecified inventory calculations, Kuo points out that with a "user base of over 1.2 billion active users... as long as about 0.007% of users are willing to buy... Vision Pro can sell out after opening for pre-order."

1.2B active users in the US........?

I question this - 1.2B active users of what? Not the VP cause none shipped yet…

blastdoor

I think he's clearly correct that it's a very niche product. But that's fine -- by iPhone standards, the Macintosh was a very niche product when it was introduced, and everything eventually worked out fine. 

https://www.macworld.com/article/670960/the-mac-in-numbers-surprising-apple-stats.html

I'm glad that Apple is allowing itself to sell a low volume product. Not everything has to be a huge mass market product right away. 

eightzero

pulseimages said:

What’s Ming-Cho Kuo’s batting average for predicting Apple products?

Inquiring minds want to know. But of course, one can simply up one's BA by allowing multiple swings on a single pitch.

charlesn said:

 Kuo's prediction accuracy is far from perfect, but he's better than anyone else, which is why he gets a lot of respect. 

I wouldn't go with "respect" here; I think "generates clicks and increases revenue" is a tad more accurate. Maybe he has access to data others don't, but boy howdy it sure seems like he makes up a lotta stuff to suit his own reputation as a "influencer." Anyone have a link to this guys actual CV?

dewme

If the real numbers are only 10% of Kou’s guesstimate it will still provide those of us who are taking a “wait and see” or “sign me up for version 2” approach with Apple Vision Pro a heck of a lot more insight into what the device actually delivers than what we’ve seen so far. 

Too many of the current “reviews” are based on reviewers experiences running what are little more than demo apps with an Apple rep standing by to guide the process and present the product capabilities in the most favorable light. 

We really need to know whether the Vision Pro in its current form and function is a Tool or a Toy, or maybe a bit of both. If it’s all about possibilities and promises for the future then a lot of us will be happy to wait a little longer to jump onboard. 

Looking forward to real reviews from real people who laid down real money to own a VP 1.0. 

charlesn

eightzero said:

pulseimages said:

What’s Ming-Cho Kuo’s batting average for predicting Apple products?

Inquiring minds want to know. But of course, one can simply up one's BA by allowing multiple swings on a single pitch.

charlesn said:

 Kuo's prediction accuracy is far from perfect, but he's better than anyone else, which is why he gets a lot of respect. 

I wouldn't go with "respect" here; I think "generates clicks and increases revenue" is a tad more accurate. Maybe he has access to data others don't, but boy howdy it sure seems like he makes up a lotta stuff to suit his own reputation as a "influencer." Anyone have a link to this guys actual CV?

Here's a thought: rather than asking others to chase down his CV, why don't YOU do it? Or is internet search beyond your capability? And while you're at it, compare Kuo's track record to the other financial analysts who cover Apple. You'll find that Kuo is respected for a reason. Or... just keep lobbing baseless comments from the peanut gallery. 

eightzero

charlesn said:

eightzero said:

pulseimages said:

What’s Ming-Cho Kuo’s batting average for predicting Apple products?

Inquiring minds want to know. But of course, one can simply up one's BA by allowing multiple swings on a single pitch.

charlesn said:

 Kuo's prediction accuracy is far from perfect, but he's better than anyone else, which is why he gets a lot of respect. 

I wouldn't go with "respect" here; I think "generates clicks and increases revenue" is a tad more accurate. Maybe he has access to data others don't, but boy howdy it sure seems like he makes up a lotta stuff to suit his own reputation as a "influencer." Anyone have a link to this guys actual CV?

Here's a thought: rather than asking others to chase down his CV, why don't YOU do it? Or is internet search beyond your capability? And while you're at it, compare Kuo's track record to the other financial analysts who cover Apple. You'll find that Kuo is respected for a reason. Or... just keep lobbing baseless comments from the peanut gallery. 

Isn't this what we pay journalists for? 

Oh...wait...

tht

blastdoor said:

I think he's clearly correct that it's a very niche product. But that's fine -- by iPhone standards, the Macintosh was a very niche product when it was introduced, and everything eventually worked out fine. 

https://www.macworld.com/article/670960/the-mac-in-numbers-surprising-apple-stats.html

I'm glad that Apple is allowing itself to sell a low volume product. Not everything has to be a huge mass market product right away. 

Yup. If the Vision product line can reach the same number of units per year as the Macbook Pro line, it's a home run product imo. That's about 5 to 10 million per year. It would take about 3 to 4 years for Apple to be even be capable of producing 5m per year, so there's a long road ahead.

A product line going from $1500 to $3500 plus upgrades. If successful, Apple will sell a low end product line, a high end product line and 2 sizes. That 3rd gen product would be the first "real" spatial computing headset with an M4 or so, increase in frame rate to 120 Hz of better, increase in display PPI to 4000+, and a doubling of runtime. visionOS needs another 2 revisions, at least. Long long road ahead.

danox

Stabitha_Christie said:

Pema said:

One day he says that his estimate is 60K-80K units. Then he reads his tea leaves and comes up with 180K sold. But, and this is where he is covering where the sun don't shine, orders are tapering off. And oh, yes, it is a niche 

He said they would have 80k to ship initially and now he is saying they took orders up to 180k. Those statements are in no way incompatible or contradictory.  He is also correct that it tapered off, that isn’t a bad thing. It’s a statement of fact. It’s also a niche product. Will it alway be one? Who knows. But currently it very much is. 

He and you be eating Crow for the rest of the year.....enjoy.

currentinterest

180,000 is likely an underestimate. I have two friends who surprised me and ordered it. Neither is a developer or had any VR equipment in the past. They said they were intrigued by spatial computing and by what they read. I ordered on as well, and am looking forward to Feb. 2. I believe there are many many like us. I think when people see long wait times they often wait to order sometimes, thinking they can get one faster by going to the Apple store. If they can produce them, Apple will easily sell a million units this year. 

danox

evolvingtech said:

Graham'sNumber said:

Again based on his unspecified inventory calculations, Kuo points out that with a "user base of over 1.2 billion active users... as long as about 0.007% of users are willing to buy... Vision Pro can sell out after opening for pre-order."

1.2B active users in the US........?

Graham raises a good point. There are certainly not 1.5B active users in the US. We must remind ourselves that the AVP pre-order launch was limited to only the United States. So, if Apple sold 160K - 180K over this initial launch with only sales to the US, it may bode well for world-wide sales

If Apple had a million units to sell across the world they would have sold every one within a week.

danox

tht said:

blastdoor said:

I think he's clearly correct that it's a very niche product. But that's fine -- by iPhone standards, the Macintosh was a very niche product when it was introduced, and everything eventually worked out fine. 

https://www.macworld.com/article/670960/the-mac-in-numbers-surprising-apple-stats.html

I'm glad that Apple is allowing itself to sell a low volume product. Not everything has to be a huge mass market product right away. 

Yup. If the Vision product line can reach the same number of units per year as the Macbook Pro line, it's a home run product imo. That's about 5 to 10 million per year. It would take about 3 to 4 years for Apple to be even be capable of producing 5m per year, so there's a long road ahead.

A product line going from $1500 to $3500 plus upgrades. If successful, Apple will sell a low end product line, a high end product line and 2 sizes. That 3rd gen product would be the first "real" spatial computing headset with an M4 or so, increase in frame rate to 120 Hz of better, increase in display PPI to 4000+, and a doubling of runtime. visionOS needs another 2 revisions, at least. Long long road ahead.

Having that long steady ramp up on a profitable new product that will sell on word of mouth is a good thing, particularly if it works as advertise. 

danox

pulseimages said:

What’s Ming-Cho Kuo’s batting average for predicting Apple products?

.100